Service Plays Saturday 8/7/21

**dawggy** · 08-03-2021, 03:38 PM

KYLE ANTHONY

Game: (24621) Vince Morales at (24622) Drako Rodriguez
Date/Time: Aug 7 2021 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Drako Rodriguez -115

In a preliminary bout on this Saturday night's Pay Per View, UFC 265 event, Drako Rodriguez faces Vince Morales…
There's tremendous value on Drako Rodriguez in this spot.
Recency bias pushed this line much closer than it actually should be. Last fight Drako faced the questionable ability of Aiemann Zahabi in which Drako lost via KO in round 1. The inexperience of Drako rushing forward allowed Zahabi to land in a collision exchange dropping Drako. Not the best showing, but it felt more of a fluky loss than if he had gotten outgunned over 3 rounds. He got caught, …but so do many fighters. Overall Drako actually has a solid skillset, can mix in level changes like he did on Dana White's Contender Series finding a submission finish in round 1 against Mana Martinez. Facing Rodriguez Saturday night is Vince Morales who's definitely a step down in competition level. Morales is 2-4 in his last 6 pro MMA fights (1-3 in UFC) and displays very simplistic striking with a basic MMA skill set. Not saying Drako is some world-beater, but in this bout, he may look like one. My biggest takeaway when rewatching Morales's past fights is he's VERY hittable. His willingness to stand toe to toe exchanging backed by a limited arsenal of weapons and combinations developing slower than Drako should present counter striking windows to land. I've seen nothing Morales brings to the cage that should keep this line so close, …Drako should be the clear favorite. Coming off a KO loss this is a great bounce-back match-up for him to get back to his winning ways.
4% Play: Drako Rodriguez (-115)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-03-2021, 10:54 PM

Ian Parker

UFC 265

Derrick Lewis (-310) vs. Cyril Gane (-380): Gane (best bet)

Derrick Lewis will be taking on the undefeated Cyril Gane for the interim heavyweight title in his hometown of Houston. In order for Lewis to win, he is going to have to find a way to slow down Gane and avoid the takedowns. Otherwise, he is going to be in for a long night. Expect Gane to fight a similar style to his last one against Alexander Volkov. He is a high-level IQ fighter and knows to not stand in front of Lewis. Gane's speed and volume with his strikes will be too much for Lewis.

Jose Aldo (-130) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+110): Munhoz (best bet)

Jose Aldo took advantage of the hesitancy of Chito Vera and secured the decision win in his last fight. However, Pedro Munhoz will be a much tougher task as he will come forward and push the pace early and often. The best way to beat Aldo is to pressure and get him fighting off his back foot and off his back if you can get him down. Munhoz has all the skills to do so, and his style plays into that well.

Michael Chiesa (+110) vs. Vicente Luque (-130): Chiesa (best bet)

So far the move to welterweight has been a great decision for Michael Chiesa. He tries to continue is unbeaten streak in the weight class against battle tested Luque. Look for Chiesa to close the distance immediately and engage in the clinch where he will have the advantage. Unless Luque can turn this into a boxing match, I think Chiesa imposes his will and out hustles Luque on the ground for the duration of the entire fight.

Rafael Fiziev (-345) vs. Bobby Green (+285): Fiziev (best bet)

This should be an excellent showcase fight for the brilliant striker, Rafael Fiziev. Bobby Green is as tough as they come, but he's unlikely to have a game plan that can foil Fiziev. Look for Fiziev to avoid the clinch and early takedown attempts of Green and utilize his kickboxing skills to dominate.

Miles Johns (-200) vs. Anderson Dos Santos (+175): Johns (best bet)

In Johns' last fight, we finally saw the power in his hands and overall game we have been waiting for. I believe that carries over into this fight. Dos Santos has a strong guillotine and decent hands, but Johns is better everywhere.

Tecia Torres (-135) vs. Angela Hill (+115): Torres (lean)

This is a rematch that both women have been asking for. I believe Torres' speed in her striking and wrestling will be the difference. Hill is an excellent striker, but tends to be a little predictable as the fight goes on, and Torres' pace will give Hill problems.

Song Yadong (-110) vs. Casey Kenney (-110): Kenney (lean)

Both fighters will be looking to bounce back from their most recent loss. For Casey Kenney, losing to Dominick Cruz might be the best lesson in his career. Look for Kenney to push the pace early on Yadong , who will almost certainly wait to counter. Once Kenny lands a few strikes and gets respect from Yadong, he will change levels and utilize his wrestling, where he has the advantage.

Vince Morales (+100) vs. Drako Rodriguez (-120): Rodriguez (lean)

Vince Morales is most likely fighting to keep his spot on the roster against Drako Rodriguez. Unfortunately, this matchup does do him any favors. As long as Rodriguez doesn't get caught (just like his last fight) he should be able to control the action and win with his striking.

Alonzo Menifield (-240) vs. Ed Herman (+200): Herman (lean)

Time and time again, when Ed Herman seems to be a big underdog against a powerful athlete and striker, the world tends to rule him out. Based on Menifield's last two losses, I am going with Herman. If Herman can weather the early storm of Menifield and can put him on his back, Herman can utilize his cardio and ground game to get the upset.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-125) vs. Jessica Payne (+105): Kowalkiewicz (lean)

Trying to avoid her fifth loss in a row, Karolina Kowalkiewicz will be taking on Jessica Penne. I believe this style matchup favors Kowalkiewicz as long as she doesn't gas out. Penne will be willing to stand and strike, which favors Kowalkiewicz.

Manel Kape (-200) vs. Ode Osbourne (+170): Osbourne (lean)

So far the high expectations of Manel Kape have not been met. Unfortunately, I think he has another tough matchup stylistically in Ode Osbourne. We have not seen the aggressive nature Kape has shown in other organizations, which helped him dominate in previous fights. Due to his slow starts and hesitant nature, I am going with Osbourne.

**rocky57** · 08-07-2021, 04:11 AM

Pickswise Sports - Olympics

Men's Basketball �� - Bronze Medal Game
2* Australia +135 (Moneyline)

Men's Baseball ⚾️ - Gold Medal Game
2* USA/Japan Under 8.5 runs

Men's Soccer ⚽️ - Gold Medal Game
2* Spain/Brazil Under 1.5 goals

**rocky57** · 08-07-2021, 04:20 AM

Pickswise Sports

MLB 3* Best Bets
Blue Jays -160 (Game #1)
Dodgers -1.5 runs [-130]

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 06:40 AM

MLB

NL games
Mets (56-53) @ Philadelphia (57-53)
— Megill is 1-1, 2.42 in his last four starts.
— Mets are 6-2 in his starts.
— under 5-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-8
— record in first 5 innings: 5-2-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Philly.

— Mets are 21-28 in their last 49 games.
— Mets are 4-9 in last 13 road games.
— under 10-6-2 last 18 games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-109
— record in first 5 innings: 46-51-12

— Suarez threw 3 scoreless IP (33 PT) in his first Philly start.
— Phillies are 1-0 in his starts.
— over 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0
— He allowed 12 runs in 12.1 IP, in 8 games (1 start) vs New York.

— Phillies are 6-0 in last six games.
— Phillies are 32-21 at home, 25-32 on road.
— over 20-8 last 28 games.
— scored run in first inning: 36-110
— record in first 5 innings: 45-42-23

Pittsburgh (41-69) @ Cincinnati (59-51)
— Keller is 0-2, 9.31 in his last three starts.
— Pirates are 5-8 in his starts.
— over 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 8-13
— record in first 5 innings: 4-7-2
— He is 0-2, 9.37 in four starts vs Cincinnati.

— Pirates are 5-17 in last 22 games.
— Pittsburgh is 5-13 in last 18 road games.
— over 20-10-1 last 31 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-109
— record in first 5 innings: 34-62-13

— Gutierrez is 2-0, 2.03 in his last two starts.
— Reds are 7-5 in his starts.
— under 6-5-1
— allowed run in first inning: 6-12
— record in first 5 innings: 5-4-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Pittsburgh.

— Cincinnati is 12-8 in its last 20 games.
— Reds are 7-6 in last 13 home games.
— over 10-3 last 13 home games
— scored run in first inning: 34-110
— record in first 5 innings: 52-43-16

Washington (49-61) @ Atlanta (56-54)
— Josiah Gray is 0-0, 3.00 in two MLB starts.
— Nationals lost his first start for them.
— under 1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Atlanta.

— Washington is 7-18 in its last 25 games.
— Nationals are 2-10 in last 12 road games.
— over 7-0 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 36-109
— record in first 5 innings: 45-44-20

— Morton is 3-1, 3.00 in his last five starts.
— Braves are 10-4 in his last 14 starts.
— over 12-9-1
— allowed run in first inning: 5-22
— record in first 5 innings: 14-6-2
— He is 3-6, 6.08 in 11 starts vs Washington.

— Braves won five of last six games.
— Atlanta is 5-6 in last 11 home games.
— over 7-3-1 last 11 home games
— scored run in first inning: 40-110
— record in first 5 innings: 55-40-15

San Francisco (69-41) @ Milwaukee (66-44)
— Sanchez is 1-1, 3.18 in six starts this year.
— His last start was May 4th.
— Giants are 2-4 in his starts.
— over 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2-1
— He threw 1.1 scoreless IP in relief stint vs Milwaukee.

— Giants are 11-9 since All-Star break.
— Giants are 9-5 in last 14 road games.
— Over is 10-7-1 in their last 18 games.
— scored run in first inning: 31-110
— record in first 5 innings: 58-39-13

— Woodruff is 0-3, 3.86 in his last five starts.
— Milwaukee is 13-8 in his starts.
— under 5-1-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 5-21
— record in first 5 innings: 9-5-7
— He threw 0.1 scoreless IP in a relief stint vs San Francisco.

— Brewers are 13-5 in last 18 games.
— Milwaukee is 5-7 in last 12 home games.
— under 9-3-1 last 13 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 38-110
— record in first 5 innings: 55-34-21

Miami (47-63) @ Colorado (49-61)
— Luzardo gave up 3 runs in 5 IP (84 PT) in his first Miami start.
— He was 1-3, 6.75 in six starts for Oakland.
— Marlins are 1-0 in his starts.
— over 5-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 2-4-1
— He gave up 5 runs in 5.2 IP, in two relief stints vs Colorado.

— Marlins won three of last five games.
— Miami is 3-7 in last ten road games.
— over 8-2-1 last 11 road games
— scored run in first inning: 25-110
— record in first 5 innings: 41-49-20

— Gomber is 2-1, 6.60 in his last four starts.
— Rockies are 9-9 in his starts.
— under 11-7
— allowed run in first inning: 5-18
— record in first 5 innings: 10-6-2
— He is 1-0, 4.50 in 2 games (1 start) vs Miami.

— Colorado is 24-20 in its last 44 games.
— Rockies are 36-21 at home, 13-40 on road.
— under 19-13 last 32 games.
— scored run in first inning: 36-111
— record in first 5 innings: 45-50-16

Arizona (35-75) @ San Diego (62-49)
— Widener is 0-1, 10.66 in his last three starts.
— Arizona is 4-5 in his starts.
— over 5-4
— allowed run in first inning: 1-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4-1
— He blanked San Diego for six IP April 4th.

— Arizona is 8-7 in its last 15 games.
— Arizona is 5-33 in its last 38 road games.
— over 13-8-1 last 22 games
— scored run in first inning: 16-109
— record in first 5 innings: 41-60-8

— Darvish is 0-4, 7.56 in his last five starts.
— Padres are 14-7 in his starts.
— over 11-3 last 14
— allowed run in first inning: 5-21
— record in first 5 innings: 7-6-8
— He is 3-1, 3.27 in seven starts vs Arizona.

— Padres are 9-9 in their last 18 games.
— San Diego is 2-6 in last eight home games.
— over 9-0 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 33-111
— record in first 5 innings: 46-48-17

AL games
Seattle (58-53) @ Bronx (60-49)
— Flexen is 2-2, 4.70 in his last four starts.
— Mariners are 14-6 in his starts.
— over 12-8
— allowed run in first inning: 5-20
— record in first 5 innings: 11-8-1
— He hasn’t pitched against New York.

— Seattle lost its last three games.
— Seattle is 8-7 in last 15 road games.
— under 4-0 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 33-111
— record in first 5 innings: 50-50-11

— Heaney is 1-2, 5.57 in his last four starts.
— New York is 0-1 in his starts for them.
— over 14-4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 7-19
— record in first 5 innings: 10-8-1
— He is 0-2, 9.33 in two starts vs Seattle this year.

— New York is 19-7 in last 26 games.
— New York is 9-2 in last 11 home games.
— over 9-5-1 last 15 home games
— scored run in first inning: 24-109 (0 of last 24)
— record in first 5 innings: 44-41-24

Tampa Bay (66-44) @ Baltimore (38-70)
— McClanahan is 2-1, 2.57 in his last four starts.
— Rays are 9-7 in his starts.
— under 6-2 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 3-16
— record in first 5 innings: 7-5-4
— He gave up a run in 5 IP vs Baltimore July 20.

— Tampa Bay won six of last eight games.
— Rays are 7-2 in last nine road games.
— under is 4-2 last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 35-110
— record in first 5 innings: 43-41-26

— Watkins is 0-2, 7.45 in his last two starts.
— Orioles are 3-2 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2
— He allowed a run in 6 IP at Tampa Bay July 19.

— Orioles are 10-8 in last 18 games.
— Baltimore is 21-38 on road, 17-32 at home.
— over is 46-25-1 in their last 72 games.
— scored run in first inning: 36-108
— record in first 5 innings: 36-55-17

Boston (64-47) @ Toronto (58-49)
— Pivetta is 1-2, 7.20 in his last four starts.
— Boston is 14-7 in his starts.
— under 9-2 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 7-21
— record in first 5 innings: 9-8-4
— He is 1-1, 8.02 in four starts vs Toronto this year.

— Houck is 0-1, 4.50 in three starts.
— Boston is 1-2 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-3
— He gave up a run in 4 IP, in one start vs Toronto.

— Boston lost seven of last eight games.
— Red Sox are 9-15 in last 24 road games.
— under 11-4 last 15 games
— scored run in first inning: 37-111
— record in first 5 innings: 49-46-16

— Ray is 3-1, 2.05 in his last five starts.
— Toronto is 11-10 in his starts.
— under 8-4 last 12 dozen starts
— allowed run in first inning: 6-21
— record in first 5 innings: 12-6-3
— He is 2-1, 4.24 in three starts vs Boston this year.

— Berrios is 1-1, 3.81 in his last four starts.
— Toronto is 1-0 in his starts.
— over 10-6 last 16
— allowed run in first inning: 6-21
— record in first 5 innings: 9-7-5
— He is 0-5, 4.93 in six starts vs Boston.

— Toronto won eight of last nine games.
— Blue Jays are 7-1 in Toronto so far.
— Under is 9-4-2 in last 15 games.
— scored run in first inning: 34-107
— record in first 5 innings: 15-6 last 21

Detroit (53-59) @ Cleveland (53-54)
— Alexander is 0-0, 5.30 in six starts.
— Tigers are 5-1 in his starts.
— over 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 4-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1-2
— He gave up 7 runs in 9.2 IP, in 7 relief stints vs Cleveland.

— Detroit is 3-2 in its last five games.
— Detroit is 2-9 in last 11 road games.
— under 8-0 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 25-112
— record in first 5 innings: 11-8 last 19

— Morgan is 1-1, 5.14 in his last four starts.
— Indians are 4-3 in his starts.
— over 4-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 3-4
— He allowed 4 runs in 5 IP vs Detroit June 29.

— Cleveland is 13-24 in last 37 games.
— Indians are 6-13 in last 19 road games.
— under 5-2 last seven home games
— scores run in first inning: 32-107
— record in first 5 innings: 39-52-16

Minnesota (47-63) @ Houston (65-45)
— Pineda is 1-3, 5.18 in his last five starts.
— Twins are 6-9 in his starts.
— over 5-1-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 6-6-3
— He is 3-5, 5.18 in ten starts vs Houston.

— Minnesota is 8-13 in its last 21 games.
— Twins are 7-13 in last 20 road games.
— over 7-2-1 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 38-110
— record in first 5 innings: 33-55-22

— Garcia allowed 11 runs in 9.1 IP in his last two starts.
— Astros are 9-9 in his starts.
— under 13-5
— allowed run in first inning: 5-18
— record in first 5 innings: 11-4-3
— He gave up 4 runs in 4 IP in June 12 start at Minnesota.

— Astros are 1-4 in last five games.
— Astros are 6-3 in last nine home games.
— under 3-1-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 39-110
— record in first 5 innings: 60-36-14

Texas (39-71) @ Oakland (62-48)
— bullpen game

— Texas lost 19 of last 22 games.
— Texas is 0-12 in last 12 road games.
— under 5-1 last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 19-110
— record in first 5 innings: 34-61-15

— Irvin is 1-3, 3.22 in his last four starts.
— A’s are 10-11 in his starts.
— under 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 5-21
— record in first 5 innings: 10-9-1
— He is 1-1, 6.30 in two starts vs Texas this year.

— A’s won six of last eight games.
— Oakland is 13-7 in last 20 home games.
— Under is 22-13 in their last 35 games.
— scored run in first inning: 32-110
— record in first 5 innings: 47-42-21

Interleague games
White Sox (64-46) @ Cubs (52-59)
— Rodon is 2-2, 3.86 in his last four starts.
— Chicago is 11-7 in his starts.
— under 11-3-1 last 15
— allowed run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 8-6-4
— He is 0-2, 6.43 in 4 games (3 starts) vs Chicago.

— Chicago is 6-9 in its last 15 games.
— White Sox are 3-5 in last eight road games.
— under 5-1 last six road games.
— scored run in first inning: 29-110
— record in first 5 innings: 60-33-17

— Alzolay is 0-7, 6.80 in his last nine starts.
— Cubs are 6-13 in his starts.
— under 9-8-2
— allowed run in first inning: 4-19
— record in first 5 innings: 5-10-4
— He gave up a run in 5 IP, in his one start vs Chicago.

— Cubs are 10-26 in last 36 games.
— Chicago is 3-6 in its last nine home games.
— Over is 4-0-1 in last five home games.
— scored run in first inning: 33-111
— record in first 5 innings: 46-52-13

Kansas City (47-61) @ St Louis (54-55)
— Keller is 1-1, 2.96 in his last four starts.
— Kansas City is 1-9 in his last 10 starts.
— under 4-0-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 10-22
— record in first 5 innings: 8-12-2
— He is 1-2, 4.74 in 5 games (3 starts) vs St Louis.

— Royals lost five of last seven games.
— Royals are 4-14 in last 18 road games.
— under 13-2-2 last 17 games.
— scores run in first inning: 23-108
— record in first 5 innings: 40-55-13

— Kim is 5-1, 2.20 in his last six starts.
— Cardinals are 11-7 in his starts.
— over 8-7-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-18
— record in first 5 innings: 8-7-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Kansas City.

— Cardinals are 2-4 in last six games.
— St Louis is 8-5 in its last 13 home games.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 35-109
— record in first 5 innings: 44-45-20

Angels (56-54) @ Dodgers (65-45)
— Barria is 2-0, 1.32 in two starts.
— Angels are 2-0 in his starts.
— under 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0-1
— He gave up a run in 5 IP, in his one start against Dodgers.

— Angels are 6-5 in their last 11 games.
— Angels are 7-5 in last 12 road games.
— under 13-5 last 18 games
— scored run in first inning: 35-110
— record in first 5 innings: 49-48-13

— Urias is 4-0, 2.48 in his last six starts.
— Dodgers are 16-6 in his starts.
— over 14-6-2
— allowed run in first inning: 6-22
— record in first 5 innings: 15-5-2
— He gave up 6 runs in 6.2 IP in 2 games (1 start) vs Anaheim.

— Dodgers are 6-5 in last 11 games.
— LA is 1-12 in extra innings.
— Dodgers are 6-7 in last 13 home games.
— over 5-3 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 35-109
— record in first 5 innings: 57-34-18

Saturday’s umpires
NY-Phil— Over is 4-0 in last four Dreckman games.
Pitt-Cin— Over is 7-2 in last nine Cuzzi games.
Wsh-Atl— Over is 9-2 in last 11 Iassogna games.
SF-Mil— Under is 5-0 in last five Wendelstedt games.
Mia-Colo— Underdogs are 5-4 in last nine Baker games.
Az-SD— Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Hamari games.

Sea-NY— Under is 5-2 in last seven Marquez games.
TB-Balt— Under is 7-4 in last eleven Eddings games.
Bos-Tor— Home side is 8-2 in last ten Rackley games.
Over is 12-3 in Ceja games.
Det-Clev— Over is 14-2 in last sixteen Gibson games.
Minn-Hst— Road team won last six Hickox games.
Tex-A’s— Under is 4-0-1 in last five Guccione games.

Chi-Chi— Four of last five Culbreth games went over.
KC-StL— Under is 13-6 in Scheurwater games.
LAA-LA— Home side is 13-4 in Merzel games

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 06:59 AM

both-to-score
Rumania : Liga 1
Academica – U Craiova 1948
Both to score : YES @ 2.00

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 07:00 AM

pep-firsthalf

WORLD: Olympic Games – Final
Brazil Ol. – Spain Ol.
Bet : First Half : X
Odds : 1.90

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 07:01 AM

Teddy Covers

4* Philadelphia Phillies -108

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 07:02 AM

Kyle Anthony- 3% Manel Kape -190

Analysis:
In an early preliminary bout, Manel Kape faces Ode Osbourne…

Willing to pay up in this spot for a line not quite wide enough. Manel Kape came into the UFC off 2 strong KO wins in the Rizin organization. Flashy guy with witty comments and KO power made made him a fan favorite. Upon his UFC arrival I wagered against him in both fights due to horrible stylistic match ups. They set Kape up against 2 top 5 fighters in the division - Alexandre Pantoja and Matheus Nicolau right away. Losing effort in both, but signs of raw talent was there. Saturday night is a big step down in competition level from his first 2 UFC bouts. Ode Osbourne is a product of Dana White's Contender Series defeating an unimpressive Armando Villarreal via submission. In his UFC debut he lost via round 1 submission against Brian Kelleher …who's many levels below both of Kape's past UFC opponents. Add in the fact in both bouts Manel looked extremely solid and very well rounded keeping it close against elite level opposition, and Ode got choked out by Kellerher. Not a good look for him. Most recently Ode defeated Jerome Rivera who's 0-4 in his last 4 UFC appearances.

No doubt Manel Kape covers this line and could look like a -400 fighter Saturday night. This line is not wide enough and there's value in this spot. Anywhere the fight goes Manel has the advantages including pure athleticism and explosiveness. Ode may seek to fire early bombs, but I fully believe Kape has the ability to shred through him.

Play: Manel Kape (-190)

Kyle Anthony- 3% Tecia Torres winning via decision +120

Analysis:
In a main card bout, Tecia Torres faces Angela Hill…

These ladies fought the first time back in 2015. Tecia controlled the action most of the fight in all phases winning by unanimous decision. Saturday night will be a rematch and I'm capping a very similar outcome.

Both ladies faced tough opponents, …but boy Torres was fed a Murders Row including multiple past champions. She squared up against Rose Namajunas, Jessica Andrade, Michelle Waterson, Maria Rodriguez, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and Weili Zhang. Losing efforts, but thats a gauntlet of top female fighters. Now Torres is on a 2 fight winning streak defeating Brianna Van Buren and finishing newcomer Sam Hughes in round one. While Angela Hill backers lean heavy on her ability defending takedowns and standing upright. Posting a takedown defense of 76% is solid, but over the last 5 fights it's nearly 83%. Impressive. But my opinion, the takedowns aren't fully needed for Torres to win the fight. Her striking definitely improved including strengthening her kicking game and pressuring the opposition. Her cardio and output recently sets a good pace smothering any reach advantage Hill brings to the cage. In the clinch Torres should keep busy wearing Hill down winning rounds. The biggest red flag on Hill was basically her last fight against Ashley Yoder. No offense, but Ashley's striking is awful and although Hill won it was no striking clinch. With Hill worrying about takedowns Tecia can fire her offense comfortably in the pocket moving forward pushing Hill's back to the cage.

Also one thing certain, Tecia Torres is The Decision Queen. Don't let that round one doctor stoppage last fight fool you. Win or lose almost all of Tecia's fights go to the scorecards. Now I know MMA judging has been bat shit crazy, but I see her controlling the action all 3 rounds. Getting off the (-140) line I'm very comfortable grabbing plus money on Torres most likely path to victory.

Play: Tecia Torres winning via decision (+120)

Kyle Anthony- 5% Vicente Luque -120

Analysis:
In a main card bout Vicente Luque faces Michael Chiesa…

We're wagering on a fighter with more weapons, can exploit a clear vulnerability of his opponent with finishing upside at nearly a pick'em price… love this spot.

No doubt Michael Chiesa is on a nice 4 fight winning streak after losing back to back via submission loss. Impressive anytime a fighter puts 4 wins together, but taking a deeper dive it's not as impressive as you'd think. Losing to guys like Kevin Lee and Anthony Pettis, but winning against a step down in competition level defeating Diego Sanchez, Carlos Condit and Rafael Dos Anjos. Not only did all those opponents share the same takedown weakness, but limited power combined with average striking allowed for great stylistic match ups. Saturday night it'll be much different. Vicente Luque has a takedown defense rate of 65% which should keep him upright in the larger UFC octagon, but his offensive attack is far more superior then Chiesa's stand up game. This is where Luque will have massive success mixing in a high offensive output with solid leg kicks. The slower Chiesa many times heavy on his front foot planting which should offer opportunities to land. The only path to victory I see for Chiesa is finding a submission, but that main path for him is also an underrated part of Luque's game. Vicente's BJJ black belt crediaintals are at times limitly discussed due to his brawling mentality mixed with a granite chin most focus on. Make no mistake, Luque can handle himself anywhere this fight goes and finishing him via submission isn't the easiest thing to do. Matter fact, Luque has only been submitted twice since 2013. I believe Chiesa will sloppily seek takedowns after round 2 in which the heavy striking attack of Luque takes over. The power advantage should also be in Luque's favor as well, so I don't believe Vicente worrying much what Chiesa fires back his way… as long as he stays upright.

With more paths to victory, higher striking output, much cleaner stand up game with cardio and a rock solid chin… I'm all over this line at nearly pick'em price.

(* Would be comfortable playing this at 5% all the way up to -175, then suggested wager is 4% above that price.)

5% BEST BET: Vicente Luque (-120)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 09:39 AM

Total 4 U

Totals 4 You MLB Baseball Report for Saturday, August 7th

2021 NL East on FS1 Super Total of the Year
!!!!!
NY Mets/Phillies Under 9

MLB Baseball Bonus Winners
Washington/Atlanta over 8 1/2
Miami/Colorado over 10 1/2
Tampa Bay/Baltimore under 10
LA Angels/LA Dodgers over 8 1/2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 09:54 AM

Marty’s

60* Mets/Phillies OVER 9
50* Seattle +178
50* ChiSox -1.5 -120

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 10:24 AM

BobSportsBets

Seattle Team Total over 4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 10:24 AM

Locksmith

Phillies ml

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 10:42 AM

Pure Lock

10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
10* Vicente Luque -108 (UFC)

Service Plays Saturday 8/7/21

Service Plays Saturday 8/7/21

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