Saturday 8/7/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 06:39 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 7, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
It is Hambletonian Day at the Meadowlands and the giant 16 race card kicks-off at Noon EST. The main events will be the Hambletonian Oaks (Race 14) with a $500,000 purse and the 96th running of the Hambletonian (Race 15) which has a $1,000,000 purse. The star-studded card has a total of $3.6 million in purses, and the 0.50 Late Pick 4 will have a $125,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout. That sequence begins in Race 12, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 12

1-Cattlewash (3-1)-Winner of 2 straight has a big heart. Doesn't usually string together a bunch of wins but this could be the time to get a longer streak going. Burke trainee could either get on the point or stay close to the lead and look to take control later.
3-Allywag Hanover (4-1)-Winner in 7 of 16 starts at M1 has been used hard off the gate in 2 recent races and just missed a picture last week. But might not be hell bent on battling #1 or #6 off the gate here. Speed isn't an issue with this Alagna trainee, and it will be up to TMac to use it at the right time.
5-Captain Barbossa (8-1)-Finished 4th last week in a needed start after being off 3 weeks. This time Dunn won't stay on the rail and be blocked down the lane. Probably won't be 12-1 but the price should be solid. Best to not overlook, likes to run down a target and will be raced differently this time.

Race 13

4-Hypnotic AM (4-1)-Has hit the board in 6 of 7 races in 2021 but has only 1 win. This Melander trainee is also very comfortable at the Big M hitting the board in 11 of 12 starts. Should off a fair price and the last 3 races have been on an off- track. Could be sitting on a big try and will use instead of the 2nd morning line choice, 6-When Dovescry.
5-Atlanta (9/5)-Has won 2 of 4 starts this year and was nipped by #6 in last. Hasn't been used early in the mile in the last 3 races. That could change here, and either way she should be tough to beat again.

Race 14-Hambletonian Oaks

3-Awesome Trix (9/2)-Winless at the age of 2 and was only a $13,000 yearling purchase. Cute stories don't usually win big races, but this Beaver trainee could be peaking at the right time. Raced the 2nd half in 55.3 to win for the 1st time at M1 leaving from post 9 in her Elimination and it was a ground saving trip. Won't win this race coming from way back and could be placed near the top of stack. Might be best of all with a sharp steer by Zeron.
4-Lady Chaos (7/2)-Got on the engine and didn't look back last week. Trotted the back half in 55.4 and has not been worse than 3rd in any of her 8 starts this year. Should be in the mix at the wire and has been too consistent to not respect.
5-Bella Bellini (3-1)-Usually has had her way with #4 this year but couldn't catch her last week as an odds-on choice. Today could be a different story but both fillies appear to be at the top of their game.

Race 15-The 96th Hambletonian

1-Delayed Hanover (7/2)-Svanstedt pupil wasn't Dunn's choice but Gingras has driven before, and he doesn't wilt in big races. Gingras has won the Oaks five times and has a big shot to take the top prize today. This colt has some advantages over others. Has raced before on only one week's rest and has won on the engine. Maybe those factors will come into play.
6-Sonofamistery (4-1)-Sears has won the Hambo 3 times and Melander is looking for his 1st. This son of Muscle Hill has the fastest winning mile in the field for 2021, 150.2 which happened in East Rutherford. Was handled conservatively in the Elimination and that should change here. Has enough gate speed to be forwardly placed and if minds his manners it could be picture time.
7-Really Fast (5-1)-Takter trainee was Dunn's choice and has been improving versus tough foes. This is the only trotter in the field who didn't race at 2. Not sure what the strategy will be off the gate, but Dunn will likely be on the lead or well within striking range turning for home. This colt has not raced in consecutive weeks before.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,3,5/4,5/3,4,5/1,6,7
Total Bet=$27

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 06:42 AM

Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Saturday, August 7, 2021

August 7, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-I Got No Munny; 6-Laurel River

Forecast: Laurel River got burned up setting hot fractions and paid the price late when weakening to finish second behind The Chosen Vron in the Laz Barrera S.-G3 in mid-May but after being freshened for nearly three months the B. Baffert-trained colt returns to the first-level allowance ranks, shortens up a furlong, and is comfortably drawn outside the other speed. The son of Into Mischief will have the opportunity to stalk and pounce if A. Cedillo so chooses, or simply pop and go if the situation presents itself. If a closer is going to win this abbreviated sprint affair, it’ll probably be I Got No Munny, rail and all. The son of Munnings loses regular pilot J. J. Hernandez (who opts for Fratelli) but picks up the capable J. Bravo, who can let the front-runners go and they try to pick them up late, a strategy that has worked with this M. Glatt-trained gelding in the past. We’ll use ‘River and ‘Munny on our rolling exotic single and then press with Laurel River on top.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade:
Use: 4-Queen Goddess; 6-Cedar’s Stars

Forecast: Trainer M. McCarthy has a pair of live entries in this maiden middle distance turf event for older fillies and mares and we’re expecting the winner to be one or the other. Queen Goddess overcame some traffic through the lane to finish strongly (and gallop out far in front) in a smart runner-up debut performance vs. similar last month, and after racing somewhat greenly and being sloppy on her leads the daughter of Empire Maker seems likely to produce a significant forward move with that experience behind her. Furthermore, she gets Lasix and an extra half furlong to work with for stable that has off-the-charts statistics with the second-time starter angle. Jockey J. J. Hernandez rides her back and should have learned plenty about her from her first race. Cedar’s Stars, third in her last pair when facing winners in moderate (Class 5) handicap company in England, is fresh off the plane, having most recently appeared in mid-June in a at Doncaster that was won by an older gelding with four career wins. Back with maidens today and almost certainly facing easier competition, the daughter of Sea the Stars adds blinkers and Lasix for her U.S. debut, most likely will be doing her best work from the quarter pole home. We’ll give Queen Goddess the edge on top and will press with extra tickets in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $16,000 five and one-half furlong dash for older claimers offers nothing to trust and is pretty much inscrutable.Twirling Derby is fastest on speed figures and the one to beat after finishing second in a similar affair here last month but there are major issues, most notably his 1-for-16 career record and today’s distance, which in the past has proven to be too sharp for a gelding that lacks tactical speed (he has failed to hit the board in three prior attempts at this abbreviated trip). He may be able to tag the leaders but seems certain to be undervalued on the tote. The other main contender looks just as shaky. Summer Fire, claimed for $25,000 off a long layoff, finished a dull fifth with no visible excuse and today returns following another break (two months) while dropping well below his purchase price for a barn that is winless with more than 30 starters at the current season. The Creative Cause gelding has back numbers that are considerably better than par for this level but that was then, and we can’t be sure what we’re getting now. No result would be surprising, so best advise is to either spread deeply in rolling exotic play or simply pass the race.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Montebello; 2-Derecho Dandy; 5-Forbidden Kingdom

Forecast: This has the makings of an outstanding 2-year-old maiden event, with at least three superior prospects showing up in the same race. Montebello is a colt with immense talent and should be fit enough to win at this six furlong distance based on a gate drill he had with stable mate Enbarr on July 22. In that workout, the B. Baffert-trained son of Curlin from the multiple New York stakes winner Beautiful But Blue was inside his workmate and was always going the better of the two, eventually pulling clear late to record a bullet time of :59.1 before galloping out six furlongs with plenty left in 1:12.3. Enbarr, it must be noted, debuted last week and finished second by a half-length to the outstanding prospect Pinehurst while more than 11 lengths clear of the rest. A $400,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, Montebello had the misfortune of drawing the rail but if he breaks cleanly he should have enough early speed to use the draw to good advantage. Drawn right along side is the first-timer Derecho Dandy, from the J. Sadler barn. A classy colt who has been thoroughly professional in his morning trials, the son of freshman stallion Connect appears to have plenty of talent and has series of workouts that should have him cranked and ready. Forbidden Kingdom may be the most talented of the three and if he makes no mistakes he could easily win, though he’s been a bit green on occasion and is less likely to break sharply than his main rivals. A beautiful mover and a stunning athlete by American Pharoah, the R. Mandella-trained colt can be any kind when he figures things out. Hopefully, that will happen sooner than later.
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Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Uncle Jeff; 5-Zippy Baby; 6-Midnight Jostar

Forecast: Uncle Jeff won his debut on turf sprinting in a maiden $50,000 affair at Santa Anita in mid-June, and while he may not have beaten a whole lot the son of Uncle Mo did it stylishly. In his next start, from the 10-hole over a mile on turf, the V. Cerin-trained gelding had no chance after being fanned five-wide into the first turn and remaining at least four-wide thereafter while pressing hot early fractions. Still, he managed to salvage fourth money in a much better performance than the line will show. Today, from a much more favorable and back on grass, the four-year-old gelding seems certain to regain his best form. Midnight Jostar is a deep closing type from Churchill Downs eligible for the valuable ship-and-win money, and a recent sharp main track drill in 1:00 4/5 seconds while best of a team indicates he’s set for a significant forward move. Good grass rider J. Bravo will have him rolling late, and if the early fractions are faster than par, all the better for his chances. Zippy Baby, a $50,000 claim in Kentucky in mid-June, is with his sights set on bonus cash in his first California outing for good Bay Area-based trainer T. McKenna. He’s competitive on numbers and will be adding blinkers for the first time, all of which makes the son of Cairo Prince a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: X
Use: 3-Arthur Spooner; 7-Gold Rush Candy

Forecast: Gold Rush Candy is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite in this maiden state-bred juvenile sprint and based on his workouts and the lack of depth in the field the J. Sadler-trained colt probably will leave even lower than that. His recent work tab that includes a bullet five furlong drill in 59 1/5 seconds solo move that was fastest of 41 for the distance, points him out as a win-early type for a stable that has superior stats with the first time starter angle. The Danzing Candy colt will get the bulk of our action in rolling exotic play, but we’ll also include as a back-up or a saver Arthur Spooner, a first-timer by Gemologist that has shown better than average ability in his preparation for trainer R. Hanson.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 7-Escape Route; 9-Took Charge; 10-Black Belt

Forecast: The first leg of the late Pick-5 is a challenging starter’s allowance sprint that requires some coverage in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three-deep and hope to get by. Escape Route won a similar affair during his two-year-old season over this track and distance last November but then disappeared in good style with a strong speed figure but then had to be turned out. The M. Glatt, eligible due to the non-winners of two restriction, returns in what is essentially the same type of race and if ready should be hard to beat, assuming he returns as well as he left. The work tab looks reasonable for a barn that has solid stats with the layoff angle and this time around the son of Hard Spun is allowed to use Lasix, so we’ll put him on top and hope that there will be enough early pace in here to compliment his late running style. Black Belt is an intriguing Florida invader eligible for the valuable ship and win bonus, so you know he’s live and well-meant. The M. Casse-trained gelding arrives after pulverizing a maiden claiming $35,000 field at Gulfstream Park in late June while earning a number that makes him competitive at this level on this circuit. The son of Not This Time lands the outside draw and should settle in a stalking position and then have every chance from there. Took Charge, a $50,000 claim by R. Baltas (20% with this angle), has been freshened since finishing a well-beaten third as the favorite in a hot race in early May. The Take Charge Indy gelding returns protected in a sign of confidence and may be the most dangerous of the speed types.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-England’s Rose; 4-Luck

Forecast: Luck has looked terrific in her local workouts since arriving from France and though she was an allowance winner at Chantilly two races back she’s remains eligible for this entry-level allowance conditions because her winning purse was less than the $15,000 that is the cutoff for this race. She appeared best in a team drill with stable mate Bodhicitta (entered in today’s Yellow Ribbon H.) around dogs on grass in late July and gets Lasix and U. Rispoli for her U.S. debut. Both of her victories overseas came on synthetic but there’s no reason she won’t just as comfortable on the lawn. England’s Rose fired a winning shot in her first start in six months when closing rapidly through the lane but falling a nose short in a similar event over the local lawn three weeks ago. She gets an extra half furlong to work with today but is a devout deep closer than may be pace dependent. With normal fractions today, she’s certain to be heard from late.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Bet On Mookie; 4-Finneus

Forecast: Bet On Mookie may have been a tad short when displaying good speed but weakening late when finishing second in his debut but then stepped forward impressively in his next outing with a more than five length demolition of maidens in a grass sprint at Santa Anita in mid-June. The son of Uncaptured returns to dirt today, and if can duplicate his grass form on the main track he should be quite capable of winning this year’s edition of the Best Pal S.-G2. The rail certainly is no bargain, but this colt is quick but not speed crazy and appears to have his share of class and quality. Finneus produced an excellent late kick to break his maiden in his second start at Santa Anita in mid-June and has trained like a quality type since, so we’re expecting the son of Stay Thirsty to continue his improvement with experience and distance. He’ll be rolling through the lane and will appreciate early fractions that would compliment his style. We’ll prefer Bet On Mookie slightly on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:30 PT Grade:
Use: 4-Dogtag; 8-Princess Grace

Forecast: Assuming both of the P. D’Amato need-the-lead entrants (Raymundos Secret and Charmaine’s Mia) remain in the field, this year’s renewal of the Yellow Ribbon H.-G2 is assured of a quick early pace and thus should set up beautifully for Dogtag. Nailed on the wire when moved to soon to the front in the 10F Possibly Perfect S. at Santa Anita in mid-June, the daughter of War Front surely will receive a more patient ride this time from U. Rispoli, and with the race flow promising to compliment her style we’re expecting the R. Mandella-trained mare to produce the last. She’ll have enough tactical speed to always be within range (hopefully with cover) and then can quicken when produced at the head of the lane. Princess Grace is a winner of four races from five starts, two of those victories accomplished in graded stake events, so at 8-1 on the morning line the shipper from Fair Hill has a legitimate look. Her speed figures are rising with each outing, she has a lovely stalking style that usually results in a perfect trip and with just another slight forward move could pull off an upset. Preference on top goes to Dogtag but both should be included in rolling exotic play.,
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RACE 11: Post: 7:00 PT Grade: X
Use: 1-Sweet and Cheeky; 12-Uncaged Kitty

Forecast: The two we’ve listed above are logical contenders in this bottom-rung maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for older fillies and mares, but both have sketchy patterns, so this is another race that probably is best left alone. Sweet and Cheeky, a $50,000 claim in mid-June when finishing a fading seventh as the favorite, returns for $20,000 today, so the new connections clearly aren’t thrilled with the merchandise. You’d think she’d be certain to improve today for new trainer M. Glatt considering the weak assignment, but she must leave from the rail, so she better come out cleanly. Uncaged Kitty, a reasonable runner-up in her debut in April vs. maiden $50,000 foes at Santa Anita when trained by P. Miller, returns four months later for new conditioner A. Mathis in this much cheaper affair, which brings into question her current condition. She’s drawn nicely outside, removes blinkers, and retains R. Gonzalez so by default she’s a major player.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 06:44 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Saturday, August 7, 2021

August 7, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Dripping Gold; 3-Morning Thoughts; 5-Boston Flagship

Forecast: Dripping Gold, a $300,000 purchase at the OBS March Sale where he was very impressive previewing in 10 1/5 seconds, is a highly promising youngster by the noted turf sire Lemon Drop Kid and a full-brother to Arlington Oaks-G2 winner Aurelia’s Belle. A strong, scopey, long-striding colt, he’s been given a strong foundation of drills at Fair Hill and locally at Saratoga to be ready for a major effort first time out of the box. Shug doesn’t often win with first-timers, but this colt may be the exception to the rule. One of the barn’s “go to” riders J. Lezcano takes the call. Morning Thought, bred for turf on both sides of his pedigree, is another debut runner worth a look. The son off Air Force Blue (from a mare by Dynaformer) displayed quick action and good athleticism in a recent local turf workout around dogs and is another with a sufficient series of workouts on his resume to be fit enough to fire a good shot right off the bat. Boston Friendship pulled hard and was extremely rank during the early stages of his first outing over this course and distance last month but settled midway and finished willingly to be third in a better-than-par race for the level. The son of Constitution should be more relaxed with that bit of experience behind him and can be a major player if he steps forward as expected. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with Dripping Gold worth a bit of a gamble in the win pool.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Journeyman; 4-Heirloom Kitten; 6-Alkhaatam

Forecast: Here’s another contentious race that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Alkhaatam, making his third start off a layoff and dropping to his lowest level ever, retains F. Prat and likely will receive the patient ride he requires in this nine furlong, main track $50,000 claimer. The veteran six year old exits a pair of hot one-turn mile races, and with three recent breezes in the interim the son of Tapit looks ready to fire his best shot. Fast on numbers and with a projected pace flow that will compliment his style, the T. Pletcher-trained ridgeling is worth a play. There are at least two other solid contenders that require coverage, as well. Journeyman makes his first start in a seller and tries conventional dirt for the first time since winning the Canadian Derby almost two years ago. The M. Maker-trained gelding has been running long on the lawn of late, but at this shortened trip combined with a class drop and the switch to L. Saez the son of Animal Kingdom could step forward significantly for a barn that’s hitting close to 30% for the meeting. Heirloom Kitten, claimed in four of his last six starts, was acquired by former trainer D. Duggan for $40,000 last month when runner-up over a muddy track at Belmont Park, and returns on the one-level raise in a sign of confidence. A prior winner over this track and distance, the son of Kitten’s Joy is slower on numbers than the other main contenders but should be capable of at least hitting the board. Toss him in as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: X
Single: 2-Tuggle

Forecast: Tuggle returned off a 14-month layoff to finish a solid runner-up in a similar first-level allowance sprint at Belmont Park six weeks ago and shows a healthy series of sharp works since to indicate a forward move is likely. The four-year-old colt has a good stalking style and in a race that figures to produce a soft opening quarter the J. Englehart-trained colt projects to be just where she wants to be during the early stages. With I. Ortiz, Jr. riding him back and with a significant edge in the speed figure department, the son of Point of colt looks like a logical rolling exotic single and what likely will be a short pr ice.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Sportini; 9-Shutters; 10-Hot Doctor

Forecast: The known element doesn’t impress, so let’s try a pair of newcomers in this state-bred maiden turf miler for older horses. Sportini, a son of Elusive Quality from the M. Stidham barn (solid stats with debut runners), shows a healthy, steady series of workouts at Fair Hill and before that at Delaware; in fact, four of his last five recorded drills earned bullet status. If he can run, this would be a good place to show it. Shutters has done some good work in the a.m. for C. Brown and with I. Ortiz, Jr. taking the call for C. Brown the son of Get Stormy is sure to receive his share of wagering action. Hot Doctor may be the most dangerous of those that have raced and is worth including on your ticket as well. A $40,000 claim by L. Rice when finishing a close fourth at Belmont Park in late June, the son of Freud shows rising speed figures, two bullet workouts since raced, and is protected today in a sign of confidence. The outside draw is no bargain but if he can drop over, save some ground and get cover he should make his presence felt from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B+
Single: Brigadier General

Forecast: Brigadier General displayed promise in his debut when a willing runner-up to the more experienced Gunite in a strong maiden sprint at Churchill Downs in late June. Three nice works since arriving at Spa makes improvement almost certain for the son of Street Sense, who should use his experience to good use in a field compromised mostly of debut runners. The D. Stewart-trained colt is certain to display good speed at this seven furlong trip and then have his fitness carry him through under Johnny V., who got to know him in Kentucky and rides him back. Let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Value Proposition; 5-Flavius

Forecast: Value Proposition allowed Rinaldi an easy trip up front and then simply couldn’t catch him when second in the Forbidden Apple S.-G3 last month but earned a triple-digit Beyer speed when going down by a half-length and not much more will be needed today to regain his winning form. The C. Brown-trained son of Dansili is assured a ground-saving, stalking trip from where he’s drawn and should have every chance to grind out a win in this listed turf stakes. Flavius likely be on his heels throughout but needs to quicken a bit better than what he’s been able to do in recent races. In fact, his only U.S. victory in eight starts since being imported from Ireland was achieved last September at Kentucky Downs, so while we expect him to hit the board we’ll use him only as a saver in rolling exotic play with the main punch going to Value Proposition.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B+
Use: 3-War Like Goddess; 6-Dalika

Forecast: War Like Goddess has rapidly developed into a top class marathoner with just five career outings on her resume, four of which have resulted in wins, most recently in the Bewitch S.-G3 at Keeneland with complete authority that produced a career top speed figure. She switches off beautifully while just galloping along and the accelerates on dime when called up. Away since April but training locally like she’s fit and ready, the daughter of English Channel should pick up where she left off in this year’s renewal of the Glens Falls S/-G2 over 12 furlongs. The W. Mott-trained filly will get most of our play, but for protection you may want to save with Dalika, easily the controlling speed at this distance and coming off a brave win with a career top number over soft ground in a Grade-3 marathon at Delaware Park.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B+
Use: 4-Obligatory; 7-Search Results; 8-Bella Sofia

Forecast: Bella Sofia returns to stakes competition after eating a first-level allowance field for breakfast last month at Belmont Park. The number equaled her career top, and the margin of victory (six and one-half lengths) would have been greater had she not been taken in hand in allowed to coast in the finals sixteenth of a mile. Lightly-raced (just three starts) with plenty more to give as develops and matures, the R. Rodriguez-trained daughter of Awesome Patriot lands the cozy outside post which allows her to pop and go or stalk and pounce. This is an outstanding renewal of the Test S.-G1, and we believe she’ll be up to the task, though we’ll protect with a couple of others in our rolling exotics. Search Results has done little wrong in five starts (four wins and a runner-up effort in the Kentucky Oaks-G1) and has trained superbly for her first outing since her Acorn S.-G1 win more than two months ago. She’ll have to spot weight to the entire field (including six pounds to our top pick) but it may not make much difference to her. Obligatory is a progressive daughter of Curlin that seems likely to be the most dangerous of the closers. If a fast pace develops, she will be rolling late.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Cadillac; 6-Bolshoi Ballet; 11-King Fury

Forecast: Bolshoi Ballet was a two-time group stakes winner in Ireland prior to his failure (with excuses) as the favorite in the Epsom Derby-G1 but returned to winning form with an impressive display of acceleration through the lane to win the 10F Belmont Derby-G1 last month. The son of Galileo is back for more in this year’s renewal of the Saratoga Derby Invitational-G1 at a slightly shorter trip (9.5F) that should not be an inconvenience to him at all. The A. O’Brien-trained colt will settle off the pace and then blast home, and with good racing luck regular rider R. Moore will have him along in time. There are two others to consider, at least on a back-up or a saver ticket. Cadillac made his seasonal debut when facing older horses for the first time in the 10F International S.-G3 at The Curragh in late June was best in a four-horse photo while packing 130 lbs., actually getting 10 lbs. from the older runner-up. Back with his own age group today, the son of Lope de Vega has a bit more tactical speed than Bolshoi Ballet and has to be considered the one the favorite will have to worry about the most. The other price chance in the field is King Fury, the winner of the Lexington S.-G3 in April and an unlucky second when arguably best in the Ohio Derby-G3 last time out. Drawn poorly outside and trying grass for the first time, the son of Curlin has trained superbly at the Spa in recent weeks and could produce significant forward move today if he can transfer her dirt form on the sod.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B+
Single: 4-Knicks Go

Forecast: Knicks Go traveled to Prairie Meadows for a confidence boosting win in the Cornhusker H.-G3, doing everything his connections were hoping he’d be able to do, win a nice race for fun and, as a bonus, earn a career top Beyer speed figure (113) in the process. Of course, today he faces a tougher in the 2021 Whitney S.-G1, but his trip will be similar to the one he just enjoyed, and in a field in which the four other entrants can’t match his front-running style the son of Paynter will have every chance to dominate from gate to wire, just like he did earlier this year in the Pegasus World Cup-G1. The recent work tab at his home base at Ellis Park looks impressive, so we’re expecting the B. Cox-trained horse to dominate on the front end as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:45 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Danny California/1a-Musical Heart; 2-Superfecto

Forecast: Superfecto missed as the 9/5 favorite when he was burned up in a speed duel vs. similar at Belmont Park in late June but this stretch-out to nine furlongs around two turns will produce softer early fractions, so we’re expecting the R. Nicks-trained colt to have every chance to make amends from his favorable inside draw. The lightly-raced son of Constitution may be quick enough to acquire the role as the controlling speed, though there are others in the field (most notably Lost in Rome) that could provide more early pressure he’d care to see. Musical Heart likes the front end as well, but he’s exiting a series of main track marathon races so he’s more likely to prompt or stalk and have his best chance from there. A winner (in gate-to-wire fashion) over this track and distance last year, the son of Maclean’s Music has been freshened for a couple of months and has run well following similar breathers in the past. His coupled stable mate Danny California has been below his best form of late on wet tracks that he may not have cared for but could snap back to life over his preferred strip. A winner of three races from four career starts at the Spa, the veteran Afleet Alex gelding probably will be asked to produce the last run.
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RACE 12: Post: 6:19 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Risky Mischief; 7-Time Limit

Forecast: The finale is a grass event for entry-level allowance fillies and mares sprinting five and one-half furlongs. Risky Mischief has been away since last November but she was a debut winner by more than seven lengths, so if nothing else we know she can fire fresh. The work tab is relatively brief, and the barn has below average stats with layoff runners but this daughter of Into Mischief is fast on figures and is a perfect one-for-one over the Saratoga turf course. We’re expecting her to be along in time. Time Limit was sharp winning a state-bred optional claimer over this course and distance last month, changing her tactics to one a second flight stalker and then displaying good late speed to win going away while earning a career top speed figure. This is a tougher open group, but the daughter of Bustin Stones seems to have found her niche as a grass sprinter, though I. Ortiz, Jr., who rode Time Limit in that victory, jumps off to ride our top pick. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Risky Mischief.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 06:45 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Arlington - Race #6

#3 Beyond Proper	Price player has a pedigree that's a little sprinty, but she might like this two-turn trip with the ability to settle and finish late. She's probably still got some upside in just her third start.
#6 Katie M'lady	Her two route tries have been sharp, but she also might find herself with a little bit of company in the early going tonight. She can probably rate a bit if necessary.
#1 Cat Attack	Like her stablemate Katie M'lady, this one has been sharp when going long so far in her career, and she can flash some pace to find a good trip in the pocket here.
Race Summary	Beyond Proper might get a little overlooked in here, and she's in the mix here if she has another step forward in her off that maiden win. Midpack finishing trip into a decent pace?

Arlington - Race #7

#7 Richiesgotgame	Hate to take a short price here, but he should be able to handle this group from close range. He's quick enough to be in the mix without getting caught up with some other pace and stretchout types.
#5 Beealea	His best chance comes from settling back and hoping a decent pace unfolds before launching one late run. Class, turf, and route are all questions to answer, so demand a price.
#3 Temper Tantrum	He looks like one of the main dangers to his top-choice stablemate in this spot, but he has a little bit of proving to do on class with these, and he might wind up too close to the splits.
Race Summary	Richiesgotgame has tactical ability that should let him watch all of this unfold, and he looks like the right one to get through this leg with.

Arlington - Race #8

#3 All in a Dream	She was no threat behind a runaway winner in the debut try, but this mare has produced some really nice runners around two turns on the turf, so let's give her a chance to step forward on the surface switch.
#9 Mulsanne	She tends to leave herself too much to do late, but she has been in with some better groups than she's going to find here. Still, I would not want to have everything riding here.
#4 Maid of Honor	She has been catching tough winners in recent starts, including Naval Laughter who won the Grade III Modesty here in her most recent start. Threat might settle underneath again.
Race Summary	All in a Dream has a right to be better than she showed in that first start, and the move to the lawn might bring out something better at a square price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 06:46 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Meadowlands - Race #9

#9 TEMPORAL HANOVER	Has done little wrong, too good to pass up at inflated price.
#5 KING OF THE NORTH	Conquered 'Temporal' from on and off the pace to remain unbeaten.
#2 LETSDOIT S	Second in fastest prelim heat, draws favorably, Sears sticks.
Race Summary	Will the third time be the charm for Temporal Hanover, as he looks to end King of the North's perfect record in the Peter Haughton Memorial finals? He was slowed by a tiring leader at a key juncture two starts back, then tried to measure the 'King' from the pocket in the Haughton prelims but couldn't reach. He goes from one Hall of Fame driver to another for tonight's rematch and draws post 9, but the price will be good enough to take a shot.

Meadowlands - Race #14

#5 BELLA BELLINI	Explosive brush into far turn, repelled as odds-on fave, sticking with her in Oaks final.
#1 DARLENE HANOVER	Closed fastest and widest from post 10, draws rail, live longshot.
#4 LADY CHAOS	Slowed pace to a walk in second quarter, battled back when headed to prevail.
Race Summary	Bella Bellini, out and moving quickly at the half after the pace slowed, appeared to have Lady Chaos measured the rest of the way, only to be denied by the stubborn Hambletonian Oaks prelim winner. A classic rematch is looming in $500,000 final, with several others capable of spoiling the party. Play 5/1, 4/ALL trifecta.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #7

#8 SHADOW IN RED	On a roll for Moreau, ride the streak at good price in deeper field.
#2 QUICK TOUR	Has speed and three seconds in five starts since his return.
#1 LOVE MY ROCKINBIRD	Exits series of fast heats, draws rail, gets involved tonight.
Race Summary	Shadow In Red seized the moment after the 2-to-5 favorite broke stride early and won his third race in 13 days on the front end. He proved plenty versatile with off-the-pace victories from posts 7 and 8 at 5/8-mile Georgian Downs and might be able to handle another class hike. Play an 8-ALL exacta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 06:49 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #10

#4 Dogtag	Probably won't be any part of the pace like he was in a second-place finish in a minor stakes race last time, and she's probably be more comfortable following a rapid pace; can get a good jump on closers and could score at a medium price.
#9 Maxim Rate	Got a dream trip in the G1 Gamely win last out and is fully capable of assuming a close-up stalking position; legit chance to repeat.
#1 Bodhicitta	Rallied well and was third in the G1 Gamely and will make a run here; needs a fast pace and a clean trip.
Race Summary	Dogtag has been in some races that don't have an honest pace, and that shouldn't be the case here; can get an effective from just off the leaders.

Del Mar - Race #9

#6 Aquitania Arrival	Marched to a sharp win at Churchill Downs in his only start, has moved from Morey to Miller and has recent works that should keep him sharp.
#5 Thirsty Always	Won at Santa Anita and then breezed to a stakes win at Pleasanton; could be any kind.
#3 Pappacap	Was an easy winner at Gulfstream in May and makes his first in 2.5 months; has some very good drills and can be a factor.
Race Summary	Aquitania Arrival was tested by good maidens at Churchill and responded with an effort that indicates that he could be a special individual. Could possibly be mildly overlooked.

Del Mar - Race #11

#5 Bathory	Didn't factor in his first two, which came against a much better group and can show from quality improvement in this class drop.
#1 Sweet and Cheeky	Lost by a nose at Del Mar to end 2020 and was claimed in his first of this year, which came at Santa Anita; can be a strong factor inside throughout.
#12 Uncaged Kitty	Was along for second, although no threat to the winner; can carve out a good trip outside and make his first for the Mathis stable.
Race Summary	Bathory gets a wake-up class here as she takes a softer field that she's seen in two career starts; fits here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 06:53 AM

Race of the Week: Saratoga's Test Stakes | Saturday, Aug. 7, 2021
August 5, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
Saratoga used to be called "The August Place to Be," so the first weekend of this month kicks off with a couple of the Spa's most traditional stakes, Saturday's Grade 1 Whitney and Grade 1 Test. Now the meet extends from mid-July, giving us more of a good thing. This Saturday's lineup also boasts the Lure, Glens Falls and Saratoga Derby Invitational, making for 5 consecutive stakes (Races 6-10) on the dozen-race card.

Field Depth:
SEARCH RESULTS tops the marquee as the field's lone existing Grade 1 winner. OBLIGATORY is a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed. ZAAJEL has won at the Grade 2 level. ILLUMINATION and MAKE MISCHIEF are Grade 1-placed, while ALWAYS CARINA is Grade 2-placed. SOUPER SENSATIONAL is a Grade 3 winner and also Grade 2-placed. The fillies have tested all the top waters and aren't separated a great deal on class.

Pace:
A Grade 1 sprint at 7 furlongs should have some heat, and the Test's speed comes from rail-drawn ILLUMINATION, ALWAYS CARINA and class riser BELLA SOFIA. The pace projects to be above-average, but doesn't appear to be a meltdown. It likely will play fair to all running styles.

Our Eyes:
SEARCH RESULTS is a neck away from perfection, losing only a Kentucky Oaks throw-down at 1-1/8 miles to Malathaat. But whereas Malathat didn't come back as stout when upset at Saratoga in the Coaching Club American Oaks, we already know that SEARCH RESULTS handled the tussle; she won the Acorn on Belmont Day just 5 weeks later. Trainer Chad Brown, who won the 2018 Test with Separationofpowers, has a dynamic duo in the Test with stablemate ALWAYS CARINA. This pair worked in company July 31 and shared the morning's bullet drill, as shown at XBTV.com. They worked heads up as often is the case with Brown mates, but ALWAYS CARINA caught the eye more as she was going the easier of the two outside of SEARCH RESULTS. It may be splitting hairs between two talented sophomores, but I slightly preferred ALWAYS CARINA and she will be the better price. That's always the best determinant to play.

ILLUMINATION will run after a court injunction allowed Bob Baffert to enter horses on the NYRA circuit. Suffice to say, she won't be the most popular runner of the meet with many followers. But horseplayers analyze races, and that distrust of Baffert won't spill too far into the parimutuel pools in all likelihood. He won this race last year with Gamine and has shipped to win the Test 3 times. ILLUMINATION looked very good finishing her Del Mar work as seen at XBTV and will be rail speed under John Velazquez, a 2-time Kentucky Derby winner with Baffert but mired in a terrible Spa funk this summer.

ZAAJEL hinted during Gulfstream's Championship Meet that she was a 3-year-old filly to watch. Things went off kilter for a few starts, but she rebounded in a big way at 18-1 in the Mother Goose at Belmont. Notably that race was a return to 1-turn race, where she's 3-for-3. She's been well-beaten in a pair of 2-turn races, so the Test's 1-turn configuration has to be seen as a positive. She was composed while going easy in her last work for this on video while her workmate was lugging in and out, never losing her focus and cool. She may not be as purely fast as some of these at 7 furlongs, and it's curious Todd Pletcher hasn't won the Test since going back-to-back in 1998-'99 as he was opening his career.

Late-running OBLIGATORY won the Eight Belles at Churchill and came up a half-length short of SEARCH RESULTS in the Acorn. The faster they go, the better for this Bill Mott trainee. The 7-furlong to 1-mile distance around 1 turn is right in her wheelhouse. Jockey Jose Ortiz is riding in elite form at the meet and she would be no surprise, while likely a fair price on the tote after 16-1 and 5-1 offerings in her last pair.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
SEARCH RESULTS hasn't missed a beat yet and has a running style to be in the hunt without being cooked if the pace is hotter than projected.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
No big longshots are in the fold to this eye, but OBLIGATORY certainly could be an overlay price and highly capable.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
After a $600+ score last week in this space at Gulfstream, let's try to keep the roll going. $60 win ALWAYS CARINA. $20 exacta part-wheel ALWAYS CARINA with SEARCH RESULTS and OBLIGATORY ($40).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 06:54 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hambletonian Preview
August 5, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

The field for the 96th Edition of the Hambletonian-$1,000,000 Purse

1-Delayed Hanover (7/2)-Trainer Ake Svanstedt had four entries in the Eliminations and three qualified for the Final. This colt was forwardly placed last week with Dexter Dunn between the pipes and took advantage of an efficient trip to roll by down the lane in a snappy 151.1. As it turns out Yannick Gingras will steer this son of Southwind Frank as Dunn chose Nancy Tatker's pupil Really Fast, who leaves from post 7. That move caught me by surprise, normally drivers will stick with an Elimination winner. Gingras will likely leave and be on the lead or close to it throughout. Winner of 4 of 12 starts should be a main player and has hit the board in 5 of 6 M1 races with one picture.

2-Take All Comers (12-1)-This Jim Campbell trainee started from past 8 in his Elimination and finished a good 4th rolling the back half in 55.1. Dave Miller is the usual pilot, and he will be steering in the Final. Miller is the right kind of driver for this son of Creatine. He has the patience to work a stalking trip and this colt has enough gate speed to get a good early seat. Big M record is 0-3 but has hit the board in 10 of 16 lifetime with 3 wins. Might be a notch below the best of this field but could be used in gimmicks at a price.

3-Spy Booth (15-1)-This is 1 of 3 Takter trainees who made the Final. This colt is still a maiden and Tim Tetrick will be in the sulky. But the $460,000 yearling purchase looks much better now than when put away last September. Takter has commented, this horse went from ignorant to willing. That said, it would still be an upset if he crossed the wire first and hasn't won in 8 starts in East Rutherford.

4-Captain Corey (3-1)-The good news for the Svanstedt barn is they have the pre-race favorite going into the Hambo. Coming off a gate-to-wire score leaving from post 4 in 151.2, the morning line status is deserved, especially after being parked through the opening quarter. But if his colt lands on the point in the early going most likely someone will race at him. It should be difficult to set the fractions to his liking. Svanstedt takes a seat behind his own pupil who has won 7 of 11 lifetime. Corey has finished no worse than 2nd in 3 M1 starts and has been in the winner's circle twice. Should be a major player, but the question will be the trip. Not sure a picture will be happening without leading at the top of the lane.

5-Locatelli (15-1)-This is another Takter entry and will be driven by Andrew McCarthy. Scott Zeron had the lines in the Elimination. The effort wasn't anything special, but it was Zeron's first time steering and he drove conservatively. Should offer a big price, has had some breaking issues, and doesn't look like a trip to the winner's circle is likely.

6-Sonofamistery (4-1)-Went off at 2-1 and was handled cautiously last week. Actually, was fortunate to qualify as was blocked down the lane but Brain Sears got the job done. The Marcus Melander trainee has a 150.2 mark this year and that is the fastest in the field. Sears won the 2012 Hambo with this colt's sire Muscle Hill and the dam is Mistery Woman who was a top trotter. Melander is seeking his first Hambletonian victory and Sears will be shooting for number four. To add to the back story this colt was purchased because of the white heart on his forehead. Beyond the cute story is a fine young trotter with a legit shot if minds his manners.

7-Really Fast (5-1)-This is Nancy Takter's #1 pupil and the Big M's top driver Dexter Dunn will be at the controls. Dunn's pick over #1 is a talented colt, winning 4 of 8 starts all at the Big M. If there is reason to doubt this son of Muscle Hill it would be a lack of seasoning. He did not race at 2 and has the fewest number of races (8) in the field. But that also makes his accomplishments this year even more amazing and evidently Dunn believes this colt is just scratching the surface. Qualified on 7-17 after breaking stride in 2 straight starts on 6-11 and 7-10. Since then, has been good and one of the breaks was on a sloppy track (7-10). The fractions should be lively and Dunn may be the fastest of all trotting down the lane. But this will be the first time this colt races in consecutive weeks.

8-Venerate (8-1)-Julie Miller's trainee has only 5 starts this year after being named the 2020 Dan Patch Two-Year-Old Trotter of the Year. This post draw does compromise chances of cashing the top check but with over $807k in the bank it's not an impossible task. Did stop the timer in 152 flat last week, which was his fastest time this year. Similar to #6, raced from the back, finished well and could have more to give in the Final.

9-Ambassador Hanover (15-1)-This is the last of the Svanstedt stable entries and the least likely to hit the board from this post. Last week's effort was dull but good enough to qualify even with a 28.4 last quarter. This Chapter 7 colt banked some nice money this year with a 2nd place finish in the $500,000 Yonkers Trot. Actually, had a nice span of races in June and July and maybe now his form is starting to roll over. Scott Zeron will be at the controls.

10-Cuatro De Julio (10-1)-This son of Trixton will be driven by 29-year-old Lucas Wallin who makes his Hambletonian debut but has trained 3 Oaks finalists. Finished 2nd to Delayed Hanover in his Elimination and was forwardly placed throughout after leaving from post 1. Doesn't appear to have enough gate speed to get a close-up seat from out here, and the post draw may have sealed his fate.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 06:54 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Whitney Stakes Draw Reaction | Saturday, August 7
August 4, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s Grade 1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga drew a select field of 5 at today’s post position draw for the $1 million contest in the Breeders’ Cup Classic division. The 94th edition of the Whitney features Pegasus World Cup winner Knicks Go, who drew post 4 and was established as the 6-5 morning line favorite.

Knicks Go has controlling speed no matter the race or distance, and over Saratoga’s 9-furlong oval that speed will be of premium with a short run into the clubhouse turn. Expect Joel Rosario to put him on the engine. Silver State has won 4 in a row, including the 1-turn Grade 1 Met Mile. Even on the stretch-out, he’s more of a closer, but with an inside draw and aggressive early rider in Ricardo Santana, Jr., don’t be surprised if he comes out battling for that second spot early with Swiss Skydiver, the 2020 Preakness-winning filly, just to his outside. By My Standards, runner-up in this race last year, and Maxfield, only once-beaten in 7 starts, likely will take their spots at the back of the quintet.

For more handicapping analysis of this year’s Whitney, check back at news.1st.com on Thursday evening for Eddie Olcyzk and Jeff Siegel’s handicapping video. Also, see Thursday’s On Track with Johnny D blog for complete analysis of the Saratoga late pick five.

The Saturday forecast is for between 30-40% chance of light rain in Saratoga Springs.

Saratoga// Grade 1 Whitney // 1-1/8 miles

1. By My Standards (Gabriel Saez) 10-1
2. Silver State (Ricardo Santana Jr.) 4-1
3. Swiss Skydiver (Irad Ortiz Jr.) 6-1
4. Knicks Go (Joel Rosario) 6-5
5. Maxfield (Jose Ortiz) 8-5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 06:55 AM

Grade 1, $1 Million Whitney Tops ‘Fun’ Weekend

August 5, 2021 | By Johnny D

The Grade 1, $1 million Whitney at Saratoga is the headliner this weekend and one of 10 Fun in the Sun competition races Saturday. Knicks Go, a $4.8 million-dollar multiple Gr. 1 stakes winner and hero in 5 of his last 7 appearances, is a slight 6/5 morning line favorite over Maxfield at 8/5, a Gr. 1 winner of 7 of 8 lifetime starts. Maxfield has yet to prove himself against grade 1 foes since he won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland at 2, but he’s fresh off a pair of Gr. 2 triumphs at Churchill Downs in the Alysheba and Foster. Plus, at 4, he’s had less time than Knicks Go to pad his resume.

It’s not as if the skinny field of 5 needed more spice, but that comes in the form of 4-year-old filly Swiss Skydiver, winner of the 2020 Preakness over Authentic by a neck. She’s won 7 of 14 starts and over $2 million dollars. Kind of forced to appear in this spot because the barn of trainer Ken McPeek had been quarantined due to a potential herpes outbreak, she was restricted from running earlier in the meet against her own sex. She’s not proven against older males, but she wasn’t proven against sophomores of the opposite sex either when she finished second in the Blue Grass before later winning the Preakness.

The Whitney, as the tenth race, is among a trio of grade 1 events: the Gr. 1, $500k Test for 3-year-old fillies at seven furlongs goes as the eighth; the Gr. 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational for 3-year-olds at one mile and three-sixteenths on grass is the ninth; an allowance $80k optional claimer at one mile and one-eighth is the eleventh and the nightcap is a first level allowance race for fillies and mares at five and one-half furlongs on turf.

While the remaining 5 Fun in the Sun competition races—the first 5 at Del Mar—don’t boast any graded stakes, they present horseplayers with an assortment of handicapping challenges. Check it out: the first race is a five and one-half furlong, optional $40k claiming first-level allowance sprint for maiden 3-year-olds and upward. The second race is a maiden turf tussle at one mile and one sixteenth for fillies and mares. The third is a five and one half furlong sprint for $16k non-winners of 2 claimers and the fourth is a 2-year-old maiden sprint that includes 2 Bob Baffert first-time starters—one by Curlin that brought $400k at Keeneland September and the other by Gun Runner that sold for $850k at Ocala in April, as well as a Richard Mandella-trained runner that cost $300k at the Fasig Tipton Keeneland Select Sale. The sequence concludes with 3-year-olds and upward in a $50k starter allowance at one mile and one sixteenth on turf.

Sound like a plan? You know you’ll be watching and wagering on this action. Why not play Xpressbet’s Fun in the Sun tournament. There’s a $25 registration fee and you’re asked to make a live $10 Win wager on one horse in all 10 competition races. Top 3 players win cash prizes, as well as seats to the $10,000-added Final Table to the top 5 players. Plus, since wagers are live, you keep what you win! A few nice winners and you’re ‘up’ for the afternoon.

Below is one man’s opinion on Saturday’s Fun in the Sun competition wagers. Analysis done before scratches and changes and is for ‘fast’ and ‘firm’ conditions.
Saratoga

Race 8
Longines Test
Grade 1 --$500k
Fillies Three Years Old – Seven Furlongs

#1 Illumination is a $900k Fasig Tipton August yearling purchase that has just 1 win in 5 starts. That’s not half the story. She finished second in her first out maiden race at less than even money and then was third, fourth and third in stakes races: Gr 1 Del Mar Debutante, Gr. 2 Chandelier and Anoakia Stakes. In June she absolutely romped in a maiden race at Santa Anita and now could be ready to prove she’s as good as connections originally thought she was. But that’s not half the story. This filly will be the first runner trained by Bob Baffert to race in New York after the tracks had banned him and then had that edict overturned in court. Baffert won’t be in New York, so it won’t be a three-ring circus but, still, all eyes will be on what’s happening beneath the big top. This filly has speed and brings two bullets to the dance: a best-of-92 four furlong move in :47 and a best-of-11 six furlongs in 1:12 1/5, both at Del Mar.

#2 Souper Sensational is sharp, as she dusted off five foes in the Gr. 3 Victory Ride last out over a ‘good’ Belmont surface for trainer Mark Casse, who’s 0-7 at the meeting. That win was fast enough to fit in here, but her previous 4 outings aren’t quite good enough. She is 2 for 3 at the distance but those wins came over a synthetic Woodbine surface.

#3 Zaajel popped with a huge race to win the Gr. 2 Mother Goose at Belmont in late June at 18-1 for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Joel Rosario. The Beyer Speed Figure for that race is light years ahead of what she’d earned in previous outings, so there’s some question if she can repeat that strong effort. She is unbeaten at seven furlongs and has ‘route speed’ so she should be close enough early.

#4 Obligatory is a Gr. 2 winner that closed well enough to just miss in the one mile, Gr. 1 Acorn last out. She requires early pace help for her best and she could get some of that in here. She got plenty of pace in the Gr. 2 Eight Belles going this distance at Churchill and roared home to win. Jose Ortiz rides again.

#5 Always Carina is fast and has early speed. She’s only raced 3 times for trainer Chad Brown, with 2 wins and a runner-up effort to #3 Zaajel in the Gr. 2 Mother Goose last out. She’s got a sparkling :59 3/5 breeze for this. Jockey Flavien Pratt returns in the saddle.

#6 Make Mischief is the only filly in the field with experience over the Saratoga surface. She has 3 seconds in as many tries. She’s also the most experienced in the race with 4 wins in 12 starts and been in the money in 9 of those 12 outings. She usually is around at the end but has been on the short end of the stick against quite a few of these. Still, she’s got a win and a third at the distance to go along with her other positives.

#7 Search Results won the Gr. 1 Acorn last out over #4 Obligatory and #6 Make Mischief. She’s won 4 of 5 races from 6 furlongs to one-mile and one-eighth. She’s fast and has enough early speed to be in striking distance. Jockey Irad Ortiz has been aboard for two triumphs and a neck defeat. Difficult to knock her resume.

#8 Bella Sofia has 2 wins and a second in 3 starts. She romped in a maiden race first out, just missed in the Jersey Girl and then romped in an allowance race—all at 6 furlongs. She’s been brought along slowly by trainer Rudy Rodriguez and this is a big step up. She’s got dangerous early speed and a nice 1:00 breeze over the Spa surface—third best of 32. Top jock Luis Saez is aboard. Expect that #1 Illumination will keep this filly busy on the front end early and that could set things up for a closer.

Best: #7
Late Threat: #4
It Figures: #1

Race 9
Saratoga Derby Invitational
Grade 1 -- $1 Million
Three Year Olds – One Mile & Three Sixteenths (Turf)

#1 Soldier Rising has had 4 starts in France with 2 wins and 2 seconds against allowance and stakes foes. This is his first graded stakes try and he has solid connections—trainer Clement and jockey Irad Ortiz. Still, he’s not as accomplished as others.

#2 Du Jour was moved to the barn of trainer Bill Mott after winning the Gr. 2 American Turf while with Baffert. He didn’t fire much in the Gr. 1 Belmont Derby last out behind #6 Bolshoi Ballet. Need to see a bit more from this one while tackling tough imports on the east coast.

#3 Palazzi was sixth in the Belmont Derby at 16-1 and would need to turn the 2 for 11 ship around in here.

#4 Cadillac is an Irish-bred with 3 wins in 6 tries, including a couple of Group and Grade 1 races. He was a Group 2 winner at 2 in Ireland and ran evenly to be fourth in the BC Juvenile Turf. He won his only start at 3, a Group 3 at one mile and one-quarter in Ireland. He seems a cut below the best in here but not without a longshot chance if he’s developed at 3, which is difficult to tell off just one race.

#5 Yes This Time is a win machine. He’s finished first 5 times in a row, including in a pair of stakes races the last two times out. It’s tough to go against a 6 for 8 winner but this group is much better than anything he’s previously faced. He’s been favored in 4 of his 5 consecutive triumphs. He won’t be favored in here.

#6 Bolshoi Ballet is an Irish-bred making his second US start. His first produced a solid triumph in the Gr. 1 Belmont Derby over a ‘good’ mile and one-quarter surface. Before that he was favoried in the Group 1 Epsom Derby but failed to fire over a ‘good to soft’ course. Always well-regarded, this Aidan O’Brien runner with 4 wins in 7 starts is clearly the one to beat in here.

#7 Secret Protector hails from the sharp Charlie Appleby outfit. If you don’t know Appleby, you’d better learn about him. He’s a top trainer around the world and that includes in the US. He knows which horses fit here and he’s won Breeders’ Cup races and Gr. 1 turf tests in the states. This colt’s form is not as good as #6 Bolshoi Ballet’s but one must always keep an eye on anything trained by Appleby.

#8 Cellist was run down late by #6 Bolshoi Ballet in the Belmont Derby last out. His game will be to attempt to take the field wire-to-wire as he did in the Audubon at Churchill going one mile and one-eighth. That afternoon he held off #3 Palazzi late to win. The good news for Cellist is that there’s not much speed in here. The bad news is that there is some. Expect #2 Du Jour to use his early foot from the 2-hole in an attempt to duplicate his wire-to-wire theft of a one mile allowance race at Santa Anita. This guy is honest, and Gr. 1 placed, so an in-the-money finish is likely again.

#9 State of Rest was Group 2 placed at 2 in Great Britain and just missed in his only start at 3 in Ireland. He stretches out in distance and makes his first US start for Joseph O’Brien, son of trainer Aidan O’Brien. He’d need to improve to upset this bunch.

#10 Flashiest scored in the restricted Oceanside by a head last out and, although honest with 3 wins in 4 starts, this is a cross-country ship and a huge step up.

#11 King Fury has made his bones on ‘fast’ and ‘wet’ dirt. He’s a Gr. 3 winner in the slop and just missed last out in the Gr. 3 Ohio Derby behind Masqueparade and Gr. 1 Jim Dandy runner-up Keepmeinmind. He usually comes from well off the pace in dirt races and may find the early running of this extended turf test less stressing. He’s proven on dirt but a big question mark on turf against some of these. Trainer Ken McPeek has been known to upset an applecart or two over the years with unconventional moves. Jose Ortiz in the irons helps the cause.

Best: #6 Bolshoi Ballet

Race 10
Whitney
Grade 1 -- $1 Million
Four Year Olds & Upward -- One Mile & One Eighth

#1 By My Standards was at his best last year when he reeled off 3 consecutive wins, including the Gr. 2 New Orleans Classic and the Gr. 2 Oaklawn Handicap. He was second in the Gr. 2 Stephen Foster and Gr. 1 Whitney before winning the Gr. 2 Alysheba. Recently, he’s been back on the beam with a win in the Oaklawn Mile and a second in the Gr. 1 Met Mile to #2 Silver State. Is the $2.2 million-dollar earner ready to resume a winning streak? He likes the track- 1 second in 1 start- and he likes the distance- 3 wins 2 seconds out of 6 tries, but some of the younger bucks will give him a tussle.

#2 Silver State has won his last 6 races, including the Gr. 1 Met Mile last out. That’s quite a string of successes. He probably won’t be believed again in here as he’s listed at 4-1 morning line odds to get the job done for trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Ricardo Santana. The paper says he’s never beaten the kind of foes he’ll meet in here. Fortunately for his connections, Silver State doesn’t read. He just wins, baby.

#3 Swiss Skydiver has been off since April. Some of that vacation was planned some of it was forced (see opening paragraphs). She’s one tough cookie with 7 wins in 14 starts, including the 2020 Preakness Stakes when she outdueled Authentic to the wire. She’s 1 for 1 at the Spa and has a pair of seconds in two tries at the distance. These will be a challenge for her, but she’s always been as honest as they come.

#4 Knicks Go absolutely romped against Gr. 3 foes in a tune up Cornhusker Handicap at Prairie Meadows. Before that he finished behind #2 Silver State and #1 By My Standards in the Gr. 1 Met Mile as favorite. That was his first out since February and he could have needed the race. There’s not a lot of speed in here and that’s to Knicks Go’s advantage. He’s a front runner that prefers to be alone on a clear lead. Perhaps, only #3 Swiss Skydiver can push Knicks Go early and she’s not really a ‘speedy’ challenger. His race to lose and it should be noted that he was off the board in his only Spa start.

#5 Maxfield has the resume to be considered a top horse. He won a Gr. 1 at 2 and appeared to be headed toward Kentucky Derby prep races as one of the favorites before being sidelined with an injury. He won the first 5 races of his career, was third, while wide in the Santa Anita Handicap and then won his next 2 starts convincingly to bring his record to 7 wins in 8 starts. At 4, he may just be hitting his peak for trainer Brendan Walsh. If that’s the case, he may be good enough to collar Knicks Go over the tiring Spa surface.

Best: #5

Race 11
Allowance Optional Claiming
Three Year Olds & Upward – One Mile & One Eighth

#2 Superfecto fired a decent shot last out at this level. He races close to the early pace and jockey John Velazquez will let him go from the rail to maintain that position.

#3 Risk Taking drops out of 3 graded stakes for this allowance appearance and will take plenty of money. He’s getting Lasix for the first time and will be expected to bounce back to the form that saw him win the Gr. 3 Withers for trainer Chad Brown. A maiden win before that are the only two solid efforts on his resume, so which is it? The graded stakes winning Risk Taking or the also ran version? Not worth taking at a short price.

#1 Danny California loves Saratoga. He’s won 3 of 4 starts there and 4 of 9, overall, at the distance. Claimed for $40k three back, he was third in the mud last out at this level. He’s zero for his last six but four of those were over ‘off’ tracks and one was on turf so…there’s that. At 6-years-old he’s eligible to have lost a step for two and he did win in the Saratoga mud once.

#4 Candy Tycoon comes off a front-pressing score at Monmouth Park for trainer Todd Pletcher. He overcame some trouble to win that one and has just 2 wins in 12 starts. Earlier in his career he was considered talented and finished second in the Gr. 2 Fountain of Youth and was well-beaten in the Gr. 1 Florida Derby, both starts at huge odds.

#5 Empty Tomb goes for red-hot trainer Mike Maker. The 5-year-old horse was overmatched in a stakes race last out but won an allowance race at this level at Churchill the time before. He’s in for the $80k tag here. His recent form is OK except for the stakes debacle.

#6 Air Attack is a $75k stakes winner two back after being claimed for just $25k and $20k before that. He’s won 5 of 19 starts, been off since April and been tried at much longer distances, although he is 1 for 3 at this journey.

#1A Musical Heart has speed and is pretty consistent. The 6-year-old gelding has a win and a second at Saratoga and a win from 5 starts at the distance. He’s the one they’ll need to collar to win this. Trainer Rob Atras has been outstanding at the meet with 5 wins with 17 starters. After 6 consecutive stakes races, this will be the gelding’s first for a tag since November ’20 when claimed for $62,500.

#7 Lost in Rome has to be respected off a close runner-up finish at this level last out in the mud at Belmont going one mile. He’s had a trio of tries at this level and his last was his most successful. He was claimed for $25k in November of last year.

#8 Chestertown is a first-time gelding for Steve Asmussen who has a win in 2 Spa starts. He hasn’t raced since May and is a New York state-bred stakes winner. He also has a pair of wins in 5 starts at the distance. He would need to fire with the best race of his career off the layoff to win this.

Best: #1A
Next: #2, #5

Race 12
Allowance
Fillies & Mares Three Years Old & Upward – Five & One-Half Furlongs (Turf)

#1 Madam Maclean hasn’t been fast enough and starts for the first time for new trainer Patrick Reynolds.

#2 Off We Go (Main Track Only)

#3 Sussex Garden is an Irish-bred with one previous US start. She’s cutting back from one mile for trainer Arnaud Delacour. She was Group 3 placed in Ireland and ran pretty well in the Wild Applause, her first US start. She fits well. Blinkers go on for this and jockey Castellano does well with this trainer. Live one.

#4 Harper’s in Charge (Main Track Only)

#5 Train to Artemus has speed and trainer Wes Ward and jockey Jose Ortiz combine at 26% overall. This one adds Lasix and Ward is 21% first Lasix. She’s been gone since November and has a lone win in the Churchill slop.

#6 Risky Mischief has won 2 of 4 turf sprints—one at Saratoga and at this distance. She is ridden by Irad Ortiz, who is 2 for 2 with her. She’s been gone since November, has stakes experience and has been best against fellow New York bred runners.

#7 Time Limit is sharp and goes for red-hot trainer Mike Maker and top jock Luis Saez—27% combo at the Spa. She won her last race on July 23 at the Spa against New York breds going five and one-half furlongs on turf by more than 2 lengths. This move to open company might not be too much more for her to handle. Note: Irad Ortiz moves from her to #6 Risky Mischief.

#8 Bay Jewel was claimed for $30k four back and immediately won a $50k turf starter and was second at this level in slop for trainer Pat Reynolds. She closed late but was fifth at this level here July 16, so she’s fit.

#9 Spicy Marg is the new face. She’s been racing at Churchill Downs, has speed and figures to tire late. She’s the second of two Wes Ward runners.

#10 Bay Storm has been off since October, adds Lasix and deserves a look off just two starts—a rallying third first out in a maiden turf sprint and a strong victory at Belmont in a turf sprint. Trainer Jonathan Thomas has been strong (23%) and this 3-year-old filly has lots of room for improvement. She’s got a handy just off the pace running style, too.

#11 Miner’s Queen has speed and was second here on July 16 for trainer Steve Asmussen. She figures to add to the early pace from the outside and probably has just one way to go. Pending scratches, there’s other speed in here so things could get too quick up front for this one to hang around for the win.

#12 Back Channel went wire to wire to win a maiden race last out at Belmont. She won’t have that luxury in here.

#13 Semble Juste (Main Track Only)
#14 Easy to Bless wins races. She’s 5 for 9 and has a second in one try at Saratoga. She’s one for one at the distance. She’s a hard knocker who’s only had one turf start. Speed is her game and there’s plenty of that in here. From this post, matched against other speed, she’s going to have a tough time of extending her record to 6 career wins.

Best: #10
Next: #6, #7

Del Mar

Race 1
Allowance Optional Claiming
Three Year Olds & Upward – Five & One-Half Furlongs

#1 I Got No Munny fired a solid shot at this level here July 16 and must be respected off that effort. He cuts back in distance and draws the rail against other speed horses which probably won’t help his chances.

#2 Notre Dame has a nice 3-race win streak February through May to climb the class ladder. Last out he was fourth to #3 Fratelli as even money favorite at Los Alamitos at this level. Seems a deeper group today.

#3 Fratelli is a win-type with 6 scores out of 14 tries and 3 wins in his last 4 starts. Trainer Peter Miller is having his usually strong Del Mar meet. This guy adds to the early heat in here and comes off a wire-to-wire score at Los Alamitos at this level, so he starts for the $40k tag.

#4 Savile Row is one of two runners trained by Bob Baffert coming off layoffs in here. This colt won his first start as favorite and now adds Lasix coming off a :59 2/5 seaside gate move. The son of Quality Road could be any kind at this point.

#5 Butkus won the second star of his career at Los Alamitos in fine style at over 8-1. These appear tougher.

#6 Laurel River is the ‘other’ Baffert in here and he’s fresh a layoff since May when he was run down in the Gr. 3 Laz Barrera at Santa Anita. Lasix goes back on today and that may or may not help. He certainly will add to the early pace.

#7 Feast would need to run faster than he ever has to win this.

Best: #4
Next: #6, #3

Race 2
Maiden Special Weight
Fillies & Mares Three Years Old & Upward – One Mile & One Sixteenth (Turf)

#1 Cliffsofthunder makes a first US start for trainer Richard Baltas and her only previous outing was a well-beaten fourth going one mile in Ireland. Probably not.

#2 Floral Essence has performed respectably in all three of her starts. She raced evenly to be third in her last start July 16 here. She added Lasix that afternoon and deserves much attention off that effort right behind #4 Queen Goddess. Count her in.

#3 Ruby’s Orchid needs to turn around an eased performance June 18.

#4 Queen Goddess adds Lasix and figures a huge threat off a fast-closing finish July 16 going one mile. She was 25-1 that afternoon and won’t be anywhere near that number today. She and #2 Floral Essence have the race’s best credentials.

#5 La Gioiosa set the pace going one mile and one-eighth at Santa Anita in June. She faded badly late. She did have some group experience in France, so something might be there. Bit of a sleeper, perhaps, but she’ll really need to turn it around.

#6 Cedar’s Stars adds blinkers and races with Lasix for her first US start. She was not racing at the top levels in Great Britain, but this isn’t the Breeders’ Cup either. Trainer McCarthy and jockey McCarthy (no relation) combine to see if this filly has more than she’s shown.

#7 Whistler’s Style adds blinkers and returns to turf. She’s 0-6, so far and needs to do better.

#8 Sommer Daisy adds Lasix for her first US race. She was second in two starts in Great Britain against fields of 13 and 9 runners. Jockey Rispoli moves here from #5 La Gioiosa, both for trainer Paddy Gallagher. That suggests there may be something here. Pay attention.

#9 Peachtree Road has been off since January, adds blinker and trainer Mandella gets a 5-pound weight break with apprentice Jess Pyfer. She tries turf for the first time after fair dirt tries. Guessing connections want to see how this one handles turf before they give up on her.

Best: #2, #4
Upset Special: #8

Race 3
Claiming
Three Year Olds & Upward – Five & One-Half Furlongs

#1 Hawk Hill invades from NoCal and has had chances at this level. Even running style helps. Rail draw does not.

#2 Vegas Moon moves down south off series of Los Alamitos tries. These are tougher.
#3 Suances Secret did not perform well at Del Mar off a series of Los Alamitos races. Pass.

#4 Calder Vale is 1-34 and doesn’t appear to have another win on the near horizon.

#5 Carpe Donum romped first out for maiden $30k and drops here for trainer Peter Miller. Right spot, one to beat.

#6 Twirling Derby was second at this level last out going six and one-half furlongs here July 17. That was a good effort off a win for maiden $20k. That’s the lone win in 17 tries but in this field he fits.

#7 Sigalert tumbles in class off a string of poor races. Blinkers go on and the weakness of this field compared to his previous efforts is noted.

#8 Musical Gem takes a class drop off a poor return race here in July going five and one-half furlongs. He’d need to turn the ship around though.

#9 Summer Fire has been off since May, is 1 for 13 overall and tumbles off the claim for $25k. This Cal-bred has some OK races in his running lines and the drop off the layoff is a move to win a race at Del Mar and is not that rare a maneuver. He’s a reach, but not impossible.

#10 Magic Tiger has 3 career starts—one at Golden Gate and two at Pleasanton and they’re not awful. Nice post and a rejuvenated Kent Desormeaux in the irons for trainer Thomas Jamey. Not impossible from a sweet outside box.

Best: #5
Next Best: #6, #9, #10

Race 4
Maiden Special Weight
Two Year Olds – Six Furlongs

#1 Montebello starts for Bob Baffert and draws the dreaded rail post position. Tough spot to begin a career for the $400k yearling purchase. Son of Curlin will need his best and works say he can run.

#2 Derecho Dandy starts for slow-starting John Sadler (3 for 29 this meet) and jockey Umberto Rispoli. A 59 2/5 gate work at Del Mar suggests this one has some run.

#3 Katonah starts for Keith Desormeaux and the trainer is not known for cranking them up first time out.

#4 Recapture Freedom is a $27k Ontario-bred that will need to outrun his works to win this.

#5 Forbidden Kingdom is a $300k yearling purchase out of the Richard Mandella barn. The Hall of Fame trainer is not known for cranking them up first time out, but he wins at a strong 19% in the category. This son of American Pharoah appears plenty fit of a pair of five furlong works followed by a six panel 1:14 3/5 lung-filler.

#6 Oviatt Class is a second-time starter for Keith Desormeaux and is ridden by Kent Desormeaux. First out, this one beat three home going one mile on turf. That probably was a leg-stretcher and the son of Bernardini ought to be fitter for it. Thinking of him as a bottom of exotics player.

#7 Flying Drummer completes an inside-outside Baffert blitz on this field. The son of Gun Runner was purchased for $850k at Ocal in April. That means he must move like a machine. He’s got a solid series of works, including gate drills galore. This cozy outside post is a bonus. He’s probably the one to beat.

Best: #7
Next: #1, #5

Race 5
Starter Allowance
Three Year Olds & Upward – One Mile & One-Sixteenth (Turf)

#1 Capo Mafioso stretches out for slow-starting trainer Richard Baltas (3 for 39). The gelding broke maiden for $50k sprinting on turf at Santa Anita in February and has raced just once since.

#2 Cane Creek Road moves to the barn of Bob Hess for this and has done most his work in the east at Churchill, Keeneland and Fair Grounds. He’s shown speed and been close (4 of 9 in the money). This is a Ship and Win bonus money run.

#3 Uncle Jeff won first out Maiden $50k going six and one-half furlongs on turf at Santa Anita and then was fourth going one mile on dirt. No reason to think this guy’s anything but a live player in here under Kent Desormeaux for pal Vlado Cerin.

#4 General Mathis hasn’t been out since October when racing first time for trainer Kristin Mulhall. She’s one our favorite conditioners so we’ll suppose she’s done some work with this guy. Still, she’d really need to turn him around to win this.

#5 Zippy Baby adds blinkers following a claim for $50k by Tim MCanna. This is another invader from the east in search of Ship and Win bonus money. This one has some solid form, so if the transition goes well, he could have something to say about this from off the pace.

#6 Midnight Jostar was claimed out of a $30k non winners of 2 two races back and is another heading west from Churchill. He races from well off the pace and will need lots of help up front to set up his closing, probably wide charge.
#7 Ox Bridge has good turf races and his form was darkened by a poor race last out on dirt at Del Mar. He stumbled badly at the start, so that one can be forgiven. If that’s the case, he fits rather well in here on the front end and probably will be the one to catch. He has lost ground in the lane in previous starts but, if jockey Cedillo is able to nurse him along, the other riders might just let him go, figuring he’ll stop. Must be respected.

#8 Good Bye Putin adds blinkers for trainer Carla Gaines in an attempt to get him to level out in the lane. He’s worn them before three races back and they didn’t make that much of a difference.

Best: #7
Next: #2, #3

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 06:55 AM

Jon White's Whitney Picks

August 4, 2021 | By Jon White

The Grade I Whitney Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday is not big on quantity, but this important and historic 1 1/8-mile affair certainly has a field of five that oozes quality.

Entered in the Whitney are Maxfield (No. 2 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll), Silver State (No. 5) and Knicks Go (No. 6).

The Whitney also has attracted the Eclipse Award winner Swiss Skydiver, the champion 3-year-old filly of 2020. Completing the Whitney lineup is By My Standards, a multiple Grade II winner who finished a bang-up second in this year’s Grade I Met Mile and also was runner-up to Improbable in last year’s Whitney after a bad start.

Further proof of what a stellar cast has been assembled for this year’s Whitney, it has drawn four of the 10 horses listed in Daily Racing Form’s divisional rankings for the older male category. The four are Silver State (No. 1), Maxfield (No. 3), Knicks Go (No. 5) and By My Standards (No. 6).

Swiss Skydiver ranks No. 3 in the DRF’s older female category.

Below are my selections for the Whitney:

1. Knicks Go (6-5 morning-line favorite)
2. Maxfield (8-5)
3. Silver State (4-1)
4. Swiss Skydiver (6-1)

In Knicks Go’s only two U.S. starts at 1 1/8 miles, he won both while registering Beyer Speed Figures of 108 in the Grade I Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 23 and 113 in the Grade III Cornhusker Handicap at Prairie Meadows last time out in Iowa on July 2.

Knicks Go won the Pegasus in front-running fashion by 2 3/4 lengths for trainer Brad Cox. The 5-year-old Maryland-bred son of Paynter then ran fourth in the Group I, $20 million Saudi Cup at about 1 1/8 miles on Feb. 20. After that, Knicks Go also finished fourth in the Grade I Met Mile at Belmont Park on June 5.

Following Knicks Go’s defeat in the Met Mile as a 4-5 favorite, Cox concluded that a one-turn race like that just isn’t Knicks Go’s bag. The trainer’s supposition seemingly was affirmed when Knicks Go subsequently returned to two turns and romped to a 10 1/4-length victory in the Cornhusker.

The Whitney will be contested around two turns. Since Cox has taken over the training duties, Knicks Go is five for five in races run around two turns.

The 113 speed figure that Knicks Go received when demolishing five Cornhusker foes is the highest Beyer recorded so far this year.

Below are the Beyer Speed Figures of 107 or higher this year to date at any distance on dirt, turf or synthetic:

Beyer Horse (Finish, Race, Track, Date)

113 Knicks Go (1st, Cornhusker H., PrM, July 2)
109 Mischevious Alex (1st, Carter H., Aqu, April 3)
109 Essential Quality (1st, Belmont S., Bel, June 5)
108 Knicks Go (1st, Pegasus World Cup, GP, Jan. 23)
108 Mystic Guide (1st, Razorback H., OP, Feb. 27)
108 Royal Ship (1st, Californian, SA, April 17)
108 Country Grammer (2nd, Californian, SA, April 17)
108 Hot Rod Charlie (2nd Belmont S., Bel, June 5)
107 Life Is Good (1st, San Felipe S., SA, March 6)

Knicks Go also posted a 108 Beyer in a two-turn race when he won last year’s Grade I Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, a triumph again accomplished in front-running fashion.

As for the Whitney, I am looking for Knicks Go to seize the lead at once and set the early pace without being hooked. If that happens, I believe he has a good chance of running a Beyer in the ballpark of 108 to 113, as he did in the BC Dirt Mile, Pegasus World Cup and Cornhusker. That type of Beyer might well be sufficient for Knicks Go to win.

Why do I think a 108 Beyer might well put Knicks Go in the winner’s circle after the Whitney? Below are the career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the other Whitney entrants:

105 Maxfield
105 Swiss Skydiver
103 By My Standards
101 Silver State

I have a ton of respect for Maxfield. I think he is a special colt. He has won seven of eight lifetime starts. The lone blemish on Maxfield’s record came when he finished third as the 11-10 favorite in the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap on March 6.

Even though Maxfield did not win the Big ’Cap, he certainly did not disgrace himself. He had to ship to Santa Anita, plus he had never raced on that track before. Furthermore, Maxfield was encumbered with top weight of 124 pounds. Nevertheless, he lost by only two lengths.

After his Big ’Cap setback, Maxfield was victorious in a pair of Grade II races at Churchill Downs. He won the Alysheba Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths on April 30 and Stephen Foster Stakes by the same margin on June 26.

Maxfield’s Stephen Foster ranked No. 9 on my list of the Top 10 performances by a Thoroughbred in the United States during the first half of 2021. It made the list primarily because of the electrifying move he made on the far turn.

Sixth early in the field of nine, Maxfield passed rivals with a rush on the far turn, described this way by track announcer Travis Stone: “Around the far turn, Sprawl has taken the lead with three furlongs to go. Empty Tomb gives way toward the rail. Maxfield, with a blitz on the far turn, [is] sixth, fifth, fourth, third, second and now first at the quarter pole! Maxfield takes charge at the top of the stretch!”

After Maxfield opened a commanding lead of about five lengths between the eighth pole and sixteenth pole, jockey Jose Ortiz just allowed the 4-year-old Kentucky-bred Street Sense colt to coast home for trainer Brendan Walsh.

A victory in the Whitney by Maxfield would be no surprise to yours truly.

Silver State, who brings a six-race winning streak into the Whitney, deserves the utmost respect. Making his Grade I debut last time out in the Met Mile, the 4-year-old Kentucky-bred Hard Spun colt prevailed by one length at odds of 5-1. By My Standards finished second at 6-1. Mischevious Alex came in third at 7-2. As noted earlier, Knicks Go ended up fourth as the 4-5 favorite.

Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen trains Silver State. Through Aug. 3, Asmussen was just two wins shy of equaling Dale Baird’s all-time North American training record of 9,445 victories, according to Equibase.

Swiss Skydiver has not raced since finishing third in the Grade I Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park on April 17 for trainer Kenny McPeek. The 4-year-old Kentucky-bred Daredevil filly was scratched from the Grade I Ogden Phipps Stakes at Belmont Park on June 5 due to a temperature.

McPeek then wanted to run Swiss Skydiver in the Grade III Shuvee Stakes at Saratoga on July 25. But Swiss Skydiver also had to miss the Shuvee.

“Swiss Skydiver is [in the Whitney] more out of necessity than design,” Daily Racing Form’s David Grening wrote. “She was stuck in quarantine for three weeks due to a case of equine herpesvirus found in a horse stabled in the same barn as Swiss Skydiver but not trained by McPeek.”

McPeek ran three horses on Saratoga’s July 15 opening-day program, but had not been able to enter horses until last Sunday, the day the quarantine was lifted.

The last time Swiss Skydiver competed against males, all she did was go out and win the Grade I Preakness Stakes in ultra-game fashion by a neck at Pimlico last Oct. 3. The runner-up was Grade I Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, who went on to capture the Grade I BC Classic en route to being voted 2020 Horse of the Year.

Swiss Skydiver became the first filly to win a Triple Crown race since Rachel Alexandra did so in the 2009 Preakness.

Only six fillies have won the Preakness: Flocarline (1903), Whimsical (1906), Rhine Maiden (1915), Nellie Morse (1924), Rachel Alexandra (2009) and Swiss Skydiver (2020).

Swiss Skydiver’s Preakness ranked No. 1 on my list of the Top 10 performances by a Thoroughbred in this country during 2020.

ESSENTIAL QUALITY RUNS FARTHER YET AGAIN

“On to the Travers.”

That’s what trainer Brad Cox said after Essential Quality won Saratoga’s Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes last Saturday.

Indeed, now it is on to the Grade I, $1.25 million Travers Stakes on Aug. 28 for Essential Quality, who thumbed his nose at the notion that he might become yet another victim at the “graveyard of favorites” when bet down to 2-5 in the Jim Dandy.

Cox also said, with tongue in cheek, that considering how wide Essential Quality’s trip in the 1 1/8-mile Jim Dandy had been, it essentially had given him about a 1 1/4-mile prep for the 1 1/4-mile Travers.

Essential Quality won the Jim Dandy by a half-length, a margin that is quite misleading in terms of his superiority because of racing so wide.

For Essential Quality to win the Jim Dandy despite his wide trip brings to mind Rags to Riches’ victory in Santa Anita’s Las Virgenes Stakes in 2007.

Stepping way up in class from a maiden race, Rags to Riches won the Las Virgenes -- a Grade I race at that time -- despite an absurdly wide trip. I really wish there had been a Trakus in those days. I would dearly love to know just how much farther Trakus would have measured Rags to Riches traveling than everyone else in the Las Virgenes.

“Perhaps no Thoroughbred in the history of California racing has ever won a Grade I race with such a wide trip,” I wrote for Xpressbet. “The Las Virgenes was a one-mile race, but there is no question that Rags to Riches ran much farther than that.”

Breaking from the outside post in the field of eight with Garrett Gomez in the irons, Rags to Riches veered out in the initial strides. She then “was hooked six wide” into the clubhouse turn, as track announcer Trevor Denman noted during his call of the race. Rags to Riches raced even wider than that on the backstretch, when out past the middle of the track. She was four wide entering the far turn, then much wider coming into the stretch. On the far turn, Gomez knew that Rags to Riches was being asked to overcome a ridiculously wide trip.

“I was going twice as fast as anyone else, but it looked like I was hardly making a run because I was so wide,” Gomez said. “The horse I ended up going by [Baroness Thatcher] was on the fence the whole way. When I turned for home, I was eight wide. She overcame a lot today and she’s not very seasoned.”

Gomez publicly apologized for Rags to Riches’ racing so wide. Rags to Riches went on to win the Grade I Santa Anita Oaks, Grade I Kentucky Oaks and Grade I Belmont Stakes by a neck over Curlin, a two-time Horse of the Year who was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2014.

I, for one, believe it’s an absolute injustice that Rags to Riches is not in the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately, far too many Hall of Fame voters hold it against Rags to Riches that she made only seven career starts. They don’t give her enough credit for achieving so much in just seven starts, such as becoming the first filly to take the Belmont Stakes in 102 years and winning more Grade I races (four) than Winning Colors (three) and Genuine Risk (two).

As for Essential Quality, in each of his most recent three wins, he traveled farther than the runner-up, according to Trakus, as noted below:

--Jim Dandy on July 31: Essential Quality won by a half-length and traveled 38 feet (approximately four lengths) farther than runner-up Keepmeinmind.

--Belmont Stakes on June 5: Essential Quality won by 1 1/4 lengths and traveled 45 feet (approximately five lengths) farther than runner-up Hot Rod Charlie.

--Blue Grass Stakes on April 3: Essential Quality won by a neck and traveled 24 feet (approximately 2 1/2 lengths) farther than runner-up Highly Motivated.

In the Kentucky Derby on May 1, Essential Quality finished fourth and lost by one length. He traveled 68 feet (approximately seven to eight lengths) farther than first-place finisher Medina Spirit.

CHAMPION BERNARDINI SUCCUMBS TO LAMINITIS

Bernardini, voted a 2006 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male, was euthanized at Jonabell Farm in Kentucky due to complications from laminitis. The news was announced last Friday by Sheikh Mohammed’s Darley America.

A beautifully bred individual, Bernardini was a son of 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy and Grade I winner Cara Rafaela. Cara Rafaela finished second in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at 2 and third in the Grade I Kentucky Oaks at 3.

A.P. Indy was a son of 1977 Triple Crown winner and 1977 Horse of the Year Seattle Slew.

Seattle Slew and A.P. Indy both became outstanding sires. Bernardini excelled at stud as well.

“At the time of his death, Bernardini was represented by 861 winners, and was approaching the $100 million milestone in career progeny earnings, with $99,120,536,” Daily Racing Form’s Nicole Russo wrote. “His 85 stakes winners worldwide are led by multiple Grade I-winning millionaires Alpha, Cavorting, Stay Thirsty and To Honor and Serve.”

Cavorting is the dam of the 3-year-old Curlin filly Clairiere, who on July 24 finished third in the Grade I Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga. Clairier won Fair Grounds’ Grade II Rachel Alexandra Stakes earlier this year.

Velvety, the dam of Whitney entrant Maxfield, is a daughter of Bernardini.

As a broadcaster for HRTV, I was at Churchill Downs when Bernardini finished second to Invasor in the 2006 BC Classic.

During my many years on HRTV, I rarely criticized a jockey. But I did knock Javier Castellano on HRTV and in print for his ride on Bernardini in that BC Classic.

I checked back in the archives to refresh my memory as to what I wrote in my 2006 BC Classic recap for Xpressbet.com:

“It was an excellent training job by Kiaran McLaughlin, considering Invasor was making his first start since Aug. 5. This goes along with McLaughlin’s fine job to win this year’s Belmont Stakes with Jazil.

“Fernando Jara rode Invasor in the Classic and Jazil in the Belmont. In both cases, he exhibited patience and an ability to keep cool despite the pressure involved. Jara, who is just 18, became the youngest rider to win a Breeders’ Cup race.

“Invasor is clearly a talented colt. He will get my vote for Horse of the Year. Invasor, McLaughlin and Jara all rose to the occasion to get the job done in the BC Classic, leaving fellow Horse of the Year aspirants Bernardini and Lava Man behind.

“As for Bernardini, I thought he received a horrible ride by Javier Castellano. Two of the worst rides I’ve ever seen were Ron Franklin’s on Spectacular Bid in the 1979 Belmont Stakes and Jamie Spencer’s on Powerscourt in the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Turf at Lone Star Park. In both of those 1 1/2-mile events, the rider moved way too soon, leaving his mount with little gas in the tank for the stretch. Spectacular Bid and Powerscourt both came home on fumes.

“Spectacular Bid finished third behind Coastal and Golden Act. Actions speak louder than words. Franklin never rode Spectacular Bid after the 1979 Belmont.

“I felt that one of the worst rides of 2004 was when Powerscourt, with Jamie Spencer aboard, zoomed to the front approaching the far turn with a wide move before weakening late to finish third. Let’s just say it was far from the best-timed ride of the year.

“I don’t think Castellano’s ride was quite as bad as Franklin’s or Spencer’s. But I believe Castellano probably cost Bernardini the Classic by moving too soon, especially at Churchill Downs, which has such a long stretch (1,235 feet).

“In my opinion, it would not have been a bad ride if Bernardini had won. A victory by Bernardini would have vindicated such an early move. Or if the colt had lost by five lengths or more, it would have let Castellano off the hook to some extent. If Bernardini had been soundly beaten, then it would be difficult to argue that the early move had cost him the victory.

“But when Bernardini lost by one length, I believe the early move led to his defeat. I also think Bernardini did not handle the track all that well, especially on the backstretch, as noted in Trevor Denman’s call. Many horses seemed to struggle on the track, such as speedsters Bordonaro and Henny Hughes. But even if Bernardini didn’t run his best on that track, his move on the far turn is proof that he handled it well enough to win had the jockey been more patient.

“Too bad Eddie Delahoussaye is retired. Eddie D. won the 1992 Breeders’ Cup Classic aboard A.P. Indy, Bernardini’s sire. Too bad Delahoussaye couldn’t have also ridden Bernardini in this year’s Classic. Would Eddie D. have saved something for the final furlong? Would that have made enough difference for Bernardini to win instead of Invasor? I think ‘yes’ and ‘yes’ are the answers to those two questions.

“Look, I think Castellano is a terrific rider. But a terrific rider is human and can make a mistake. Bill Shoemaker misjudged the finish line aboard Gallant Man in the 1957 Kentucky Derby. Gallant Man lost by only a nose.

“Perhaps Castellano was simply too confident. Hey, considering all those easy wins by Bernardini this year, I really can’t blame Castellano for that. But he should have been cognizant of two important differences in the BC Classic compared to the colt’s other 2006 races. First, this was by far the toughest group Bernardini had run against in his life, including the likes of Invasor and Lava Man. And, second, Churchill Downs has a very long stretch.”

NOT AS DOGMATIC IN RETROSPECT

As time has gone on, I have softened my stance on Castellano’s ride aboard Bernardini in 2006 BC Classic. Why? Because I came to the conclusion that Invasor was such a win machine that Bernardini might have lost to Invasor no matter what Castellano did on Bernardini.

After the 2006 BC Classic, Invasor ran only twice more. He won the Grade I Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park and Group I Dubai World Cup early in 2007 before being retired to stud.

Invasor won 11 of 12 career starts. He was five for five in this country. His lone defeat came when he finished fourth in the Group II UAE Derby in his first 2006 start.

Looking back, considering Invasor never lost a race in the U.S., I can’t be so sure that Bernardini would have defeated Invasor in the 2006 BC Classic if Bernardini had been ridden differently. But I do stick to my guns to this extent. Because Castellano did not ride Bernardini more patiently, it greatly reduced any chance Bernardini did have that day to defeat such a formidable foe in Invasor.

A BUSY NEXT MORNING

The morning after Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup races, Becky Witzman, who also was a broadcaster for HRTV, and yours truly made the rounds in the Churchill Downs barn area for several hours to visit with some of the folks who had participated in the Breeders’ Cup.

I remember that while I was walking from one barn to the next, I happened to notice a man wearing a hat in a stall with a horse. It was a Happy Ticket hat. Happy Ticket had run in the BC Distaff.

I stopped and said to the man, “I love your hat. I’m a big Happy Ticket fan.”

“So I am,” the man said.

“Really?” I asked.

“I sure am,” he said. The man paused, smiled, then said, “I’m the owner.”

Yes, the man in the stall was none other than Happy Ticket’s owner, Stewart Madison. We had a nice chat before I continued making the rounds.

In the BC Distaff the day before, Happy Ticket had finished third, then was moved up to second via the disqualification of Asi Siempre. Round Pond won that race.

Louisiana-bred Happy Ticket did not race again after the 2006 BC Distaff. She won 12 of 20 lifetime starts while earning $1,688,838.

Later that morning, I observed Bernardini being loaded onto a van to leave Churchill Downs. A security guard was using his cell phone to take a photo of Bernardini being loaded onto the van. I did not have an iPhone yet or I also would have taken a photo.

At the time, it was not known whether Bernardini would continue racing the next year or go to stud.

“Look at that, Becky,” I remarked as the van was being driven away. “You know what? I’m guessing Bernardini is going to be retired. If that’s true, then we are seeing Bernardini leave a racetrack for the very last time.”

The 2006 BC Classic did indeed turn out to be Bernardini’s final race. He exited the racing stage having won six of eight career starts and earning $3,060,480 before embarking on his highly successful stud career.

Following Bernardini’s death, Jimmy Bell, president of Godolphin USA, said: “Bernardini was Sheikh Mohammed’s first winner of a Triple Crown race -- and a homebred one, too -- and then a leading sire. We have been blessed to have him. A beautiful horse and a lovely character, we are lucky to have so many of his daughters on the farm to continue his legacy.”

THOROUGHBRED RACING COMMENTARY GOOF

“How will Pletcher deploy big guns with Whitney in his sights?”

That was the headline for a July 29 Thoroughbred Racing Commentary article posted on the website thoroughbredracing.com written by Todd Sidor.

Sidor wrote: “Todd Pletcher, who will be inducted into the Hall of Fame next week, has two possible champion older males in his barn who could be targeted” for the Grade I Whitney Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 7, “with Grade I Hollywood Gold Cup winner Country Grammer, back under his supervision after a sojourn to Bob Baffert’s barn, and 2020 [Grade I] Jockey Club Gold Cup scorer Happy Saver.”

What? Sidor wrote on July 29 that Country Grammer “could be targeted” for the Whitney? Oops. Sidor obviously missed the July 25 Daily Racing Form report on Country Grammer written by David Grening.

“Country Grammer, the Grade I Hollywood Gold Cup winner, will most likely miss the major races in the older male division this year due to an ankle injury that has flared up, trainer Todd Pletcher said,” Grening wrote.

“He’s going to WinStar for a more thorough evaluation in hopefully what will amount to a short rest and we’ll have him back in time for maybe a prep for the Pegasus,” Grening quoted Pletcher as saying.

The Pegasus World Cup is run early in the year at Gulfstream Park.

Sidor had another opportunity to realize that Country Grammer certainly will not be “targeted” at the Whitney from the July 26 story that BloodHorse’s Christine Oser wrote regarding the colt’s ankle injury.

While noting that the DRF’s Grening “first reported that Country Grammer had been sidelined,” Oser quoted WinStar president, CEO and racing manager Elliott Walden as saying Pletcher “went to work him Friday morning [July 23 at Saratoga] and he had some filling in an ankle and didn’t want to work him. [Pletcher] X-rayed it and diagnostically looked at it; it was clean, but the next day there was even a little more filling, so he’s kind of acutely wrenched it. We’re going to send him home. He’ll probably need at least 30 days to get over it, so there’s no reason for him to sit in a stall at Saratoga.”

Walden went on to say that Dr. Larry Bramlage of the Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital in Kentucky will also have a look at Country Grammer’s ankle.

MANY WORLD RECORDS SET AT OLYMPICS

A great many world records in all kinds of different sports have been set at the Tokyo Summer Olympics.

For instance, in one of the most dramatic moments at the Olympics, Norway’s Karsten Warholm edged Team USA’s Rai Bejamin for the gold medal in the final of the men’s 400-meter hurdles. Warholm had broken a 29-year-old world record last month with a time of 46.70 seconds. In what is being called one of the all-time great Olympic races, Warholm then broke his own world mark with an astonishing time of 45.94 seconds.

The next day in what also has been called an epic race, Sydney McLaughlin of the USA unleashed a late surge to take the gold medal in the women’s 400-meter hurdles. McLaughlin’s time of 51.46 seconds broke her own world record by nearly half a second. Finishing second was Dalilah Muhammad, the defending Olympic champion in this event and also representing the USA.

Setting a world record is, of course, a big deal. I will never forget when my all-time favorite horse, Turbulator, broke the world record for 6 1/2 furlongs by two-fifths of a second when he won the 1970 Governor’s Handicap at Longacres in 1:14 flat.

What is the current world record for 6 1/2 furlongs? I don’t think anybody can answer that question. That’s because, as far as I know, horse racing no longer has a list of world records to be found anywhere.

For many decades, world records in horse racing were listed in the American Racing Manual. But this now isn’t the case. In the 2021 American Racing Manual (which now is digital only and available for free on The Jockey Club’s website), you will find North American dirt and turf records and Canadian dirt and turf records. There are no world records.

What about Equibase? On its website you will find a section for North American records. Again, there is no list of world records.

While tremendous improvements in technology have enabled other sports to improve their record keeping, horse racing has taken a giant step backward in terms of no longer having a list of world records.

Simon and Garfunkel sang, “Where have you gone, Joe Dimaggio?” In horse racing it’s a case of, “Where have you gone, world records?”

THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Even though Essential Quality did not win the Jim Dandy by a big margin, he climbs to No. 3 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll after being No. 5 last week. There are no newcomers on this week’s Top 10.

Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 292 Letruska (15)
2. 257 Maxfield (5)
3. 236 Essential Quality (4)
4. 218 Domestic Spending (5)
5. 215 Silver State (3)
6. 128 Knicks Go
7. 83 Gamine
8. 54 Mandaloun
9. 47 Hot Rod Charlie
10. 45 Mystic Guide (1)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 09:43 AM

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Atlanta w/Morton -230 over Washington

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 09:46 AM

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: WASHINGTON/ATLANTA OVER the total of 8½ runs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2021, 09:46 AM

Totals4U

Saturday's Free Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks/San Diego Padres over 8