Wednesday 7/21/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 351087

    Wednesday 7/21/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 351087

    #2
    MLB

    NL games
    Miami (40-54) @ Washington (45-48)
    — Alcantara is on bereavement list; this is a bullpen game.

    — Marlins are 11-19 in their last 30 games.
    — Miami is 6-18 in last 24 road games.
    — over 9-2-2 last 13 games
    — scored run in first inning: 22-94
    — record in first 5 innings: 34-42-18

    — Fedde is 0-3, 10.12 in his last three starts.
    — Nationals are 7-7 in his starts.
    — under 9-5
    — allowed run in first inning: 3-14
    — record in first 5 innings: 3-8-3
    — He is 2-0, 1.17 in three starts vs Miami.

    — Washington won three of last four games.
    — Nationals are 3-5 in last eight home games.
    — over 8-2-1 last 11 games
    — scored run in first inning: 31-93
    — record in first 5 innings: 38-35-19

    Mets (49-43) @ Cincinnati (49-46)
    — bullpen game

    — Mets are 14-18 in their last 32 games.
    — Mets are 5-9 in their last 14 road games.
    — over 10-6-1 last 17 games.
    — scored run in first inning: 25-92
    — record in first 5 innings: 40-40-12

    — Hoffman is 1-2, 7.63 in his last four starts.
    — This is his first start since May 21.
    — Reds are 5-4 in his starts.
    — over 8-0-1
    — allowed run in first inning: 1-9
    — record in first 5 innings: 3-5-1
    — He is 1-1, 7.43 in 6 games (4 starts) against the Mets.

    — Cincinnati lost four of its last five games.
    — Reds are 11-8 in last 19 home games.
    — under 11-6 last 17 home games
    — scored run in first inning: 27-95
    — record in first 5 innings: 39-40-16

    San Diego (55-42) @ Atlanta (45-47)
    — Paddack is 1-1, 11.57 in his last four starts.
    — Padres are 10-7 in his starts.
    — over 6-1 last seven
    — allowed run in first inning: 3-17
    — record in first 5 innings: 7-9-1
    — He gave up 2 runs in six IP in one start vs Atlanta.

    — Nightcap is a bullpen game.

    — Padres are 6-9 in their last 15 games.
    — San Diego is 6-14 in its last 20 road games.
    — over 8-4 last 12 games
    — scored run in first inning: 29-97
    — record in first 5 innings: 37-43-17

    — Muller is 1-2, 2.45 in three starts.
    — Braves are 1-2 in his starts.
    — under 2-1
    — allowed run in first inning: 1-3
    — record in first 5 innings: 1-2
    — He hasn’t pitched against San Diego.

    — Wilson is 1-3, 5.70 in his last five starts.
    — Braves are 2-4 in his starts.
    — under 3-3
    — allowed run in first inning: 3-6
    — record in first 5 innings: 3-3
    — He hasn’t pitched against San Diego.

    — Braves won five of their last eight games
    — Atlanta is 9-5 in its last 14 home games.
    — over 8-3 in last 11 games.
    — scored run in first inning: 33-93
    — record in first 5 innings: 48-32-13

    Cubs (47-48) @ St Louis (47-48)
    — Hendricks is 4-0, 1.98 in his last six starts.
    — Cubs are 12-7 in his starts.
    — under 6-3 last nine
    — allowed run in first inning: 6-19
    — record in first 5 innings: 14-4-1
    — He is 3-0, 3.32 in three starts vs St Louis this year.

    — Cubs are 5-15 in last 20 games.
    — Chicago is 3-11 in its last 14 road games.
    — Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games.
    — scored run in first inning: 27-95
    — record in first 5 innings: 40-43-12

    — Wainwright is 3-1, 3.09 in his last five starts.
    — Cubs are 9-9 in his starts.
    — under 10-8
    — allowed run in first inning: 3-18
    — record in first 5 innings: 7-6-5
    — He is 17-13, 4.00 in 43 starts vs Chicago.

    — Cardinals are 11-7 in last 18 games.
    — St Louis is 7-2 in its last nine home games.
    — Under is 18-11-2 in their last 31 games.
    — scored run in first inning: 29-95
    — record in first 5 innings: 39-38-18

    Pittsburgh (36-58) @ Arizona (28-68)
    — Kuhl is 3-1, 2.30 in his last five starts.
    — Pirates are 7-5 in his starts.
    — over 8-4 (0-3 last 3)
    — allowed run in first inning: 5-12
    — record in first 5 innings: 6-3-3
    — He is 0-1, 12.86 in two starts vs Arizona.

    — Pirates lost their last three games.
    — Pittsburgh is 2-7 in last nine road games.
    — over 11-5 last 16 games
    — scored run in first inning: 26-94
    — record in first 5 innings: 30-52-12

    — Bumgarner is 0-4, 9.41 in his last five starts.
    — Arizona is 4-9 in his starts.
    — over 8-5
    — allowed run in first inning: 6-13
    — record in first 5 innings: 5-7-1
    — He is 3-5, 3.14 in nine starts vs Pittsburgh.

    — Arizona won its last three games.
    — Arizona is 6-8 in its last 14 home games.
    — over 6-4 last ten games
    — scored run in first inning: 15-97
    — record in first 5 innings: 37-54-6

    San Francisco (59-35) @ Dodgers (59-37)
    — Webb is 3-0, 1.88 in his last five starts.
    — Giants are 8-3 in his starts.
    — under 6-5
    — allowed run in first inning: 3-11
    — record in first 5 innings: 6-3-2
    — He is 1-2, 4.34 in four starts vs Los Angeles.

    — Giants won six of their last nine games.
    — Giants are 7-6 in last 13 road games.
    — Under is 12-6 in last 18 road games.
    — scored run in first inning: 28-94
    — record in first 5 innings: 53-28-13

    — Urias is 3-0, 3.86 in his last three starts.
    — Dodgers are 15-4 in his starts.
    — over 13-4-2
    — allowed run in first inning: 5-19
    — record in first 5 innings: 12-5-2
    — He is 1-1, 7.36 in two starts vs San Francisco this year.

    — Dodgers split their last 12 games.
    — Dodgers are 8-2 in last ten home games.
    — under 9-4-1 last 14 home games
    — scored run in first inning: 30-96
    — record in first 5 innings: 48-32-16

    AL games
    Minnesota (40-55) @ White Sox (58-37)
    — Pineda is 0-3, 8.27 in his last four starts.
    — Twins are 4-8 in his starts.
    — under 6-5-1
    — allowed run in first inning: 4-12
    — record in first 5 innings: 4-6-2
    — He is 0-2, 6.75 in two starts vs Chicago this year.

    — Minnesota lost five of its last six games.
    — Twins are 2-10 in last 12 road games.
    — over 10-7 last 17 road games
    — scored run in first inning: 34-95
    — record in first 5 innings: 28-47-20

    — Cease is 0-2, 6.46 in his last three starts.
    — Chicago is 11-8 in his starts.
    — over 11-7-1
    — allowed run in first inning: 7-19
    — record in first 5 innings: 8-7-4
    — He is 1-1, 4.95 in three starts vs Minnesota this year.

    — Chicago won nine of its last 11 games.
    — White Sox are 8-2 in last ten home games.
    — over 9-4 last 13 home games.
    — scored run in first inning: 28-95
    — record in first 5 innings: 53-26-16

    Boston (57-37) @ Toronto (48-43)
    — Richards is 1-1, 7.79 in his last four starts.
    — Red Sox are 8-4 in his last 12 starts.
    — over 6-0-1 last seven
    — allowed run in first inning: 11-18
    — record in first 5 innings: 6-8-4
    — He is 1-1, 5.40 in three starts vs Toronto this year.

    — Boston is 3-6 in its last nine games.
    — Red Sox are 7-9 in last 16 road games.
    — under 6-3-1 last ten road games
    — scored run in first inning: 33-94
    — record in first 5 innings: 44-35-15

    — Ray is 3-1, 1.69 in his last four starts.
    — Blue Jays are 10-5 in his last 15 starts.
    — under 6-3 last nine
    — allowed run in first inning: 4-18
    — record in first 5 innings: 11-4-3
    — He is 1-0, 5.91 in 3 games (2 starts) vs Boston.

    — Toronto won four of last five games.
    — Blue Jays are 5-2 in last seven home games.
    — Over is 10-7 in their last 17 home games.
    — scored run in first inning: 30-91
    — record in first 5 innings: 11-3-2 last 15 at home

    Baltimore (31-63) @ Tampa Bay (56-39)
    — Akin is 0-5, 12.00 in his last six starts.
    — Orioles are 1-7 in his starts.
    — over 5-0 last five
    — allowed run in first inning: 2-8
    — record in first 5 innings: 0-6-2
    — He allowed 5 runs in 7.1 IP in 3 games (1 start) vs Tampa Bay.

    — Orioles are 7-10 in last 17 games.
    — Baltimore is 18-33 on road, 13-30 at home.
    — over is 40-18-1 in their last 59 games.
    — scored run in first inning: 29-94
    — record in first 5 innings: 29-50-15

    — Wacha is 1-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
    — Rays are 8-3 in his starts.
    — over 6-3-2
    — allowed run in first inning: 2-11
    — record in first 5 innings: 4-4-3
    — He is 0-1, 7.00 in three starts vs Baltimore.

    — Tampa Bay won nine of its last 12 games.
    — Rays are 10-3 in last 13 home games.
    — under is 5-1 in last last six games.
    — scored run in first inning: 28-95
    — record in first 5 innings: 37-36-22

    Texas (35-60) @ Detroit (45-51)
    — Lyles is 3-1, 4.30 in his last four starts.
    — Texas is 9-10 in his starts.
    — over 5-2 last seven
    — allowed run in first inning: 8-19
    — record in first 5 innings: 6-12-1
    — He is 0-0, 2.57 in 2 games (1 start) vs Detroit.

    — Texas is 2-10 in its last 12 games.
    — Rangers lost last four games by combined 33-1.
    — Texas is 4-25 in its last 29 road games.
    — over 14-4-1 last 19 road games.
    — scored run in first inning: 19-95
    — record in first 5 innings: 31-51-13

    — Manning is 0-2, 10.32 in his last three starts.
    — Tigers are 2-3 in his starts.
    — over 3-2
    — allowed run in first inning: 1-5
    — record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
    — He hasn’t pitched against Texas.

    — Detroit won its last five games.
    — Detroit is 10-3 in last 13 home games.
    — over 23-12-1 last 36 games
    — scored run in first inning: 20-96
    — record in first 5 innings: 10-2-1 last 13 at home.

    Cleveland (47-45) @ Houston (58-38)
    — Morgan is 1-3, 8.44 in five starts.
    — Indians are 2-3 in his starts.
    — over 3-2
    — allowed run in first inning: 1-5
    — record in first 5 innings: 2-3
    — He gave up 3 runs in five IP vs Houston July 3rd.

    — Cleveland lost 15 of its last 22 games.
    — Indians lost eight of last ten road games.
    — under 4-2 last six road games
    — scores run in first inning: 30-92
    — record in first 5 innings: 34-44-14

    — McCullers is 4-1, 2.64 in his last five starts.
    — Astros are 10-5 in his starts.
    — under 3-0-1 last four
    — allowed run in first inning: 4-15
    — record in first 5 innings: 8-6-1
    — He is 2-2, 5.82 in four starts vs Cleveland.

    — Astros lost five of last nine games.
    — Astros are 5-6 in last 11 home games.
    — under 7-4 last 11 games
    — scored run in first inning: 33-96
    — record in first 5 innings: 50-32-14

    Interleague games
    Kansas City (38-55) @ Milwaukee (55-40)
    — Keller is 0-5, 6.86 in his last seven starts.
    — Kansas City is 8-11 in his starts.
    — under 3-1-1 last five
    — allowed run in first inning: 10-19
    — record in first 5 innings: 7-10-2
    — He is 0-1, 6.55 in 3 games (2 starts) vs Milwaukee

    — Royals are 9-28 in last 37 games.
    — Royals are 1-12 in last 13 road games.
    — over 10-4-1 last 15 road games.
    — scores run in first inning: 19-93
    — record in first 5 innings: 33-47-13

    — Lauer is 2-1, 0.98 in his last three starts.
    — Milwaukee is 4-5 in his starts.
    — over 5-4
    — allowed run in first inning: 3-9
    — record in first 5 innings: 4-4-1
    — He hasn’t pitched against Kansas City.

    — Brewers won three of last four games.
    — Milwaukee split its last 14 home games.
    — under 6-1 last seven home games.
    — scored run in first inning: 33-96
    — record in first 5 innings: 44-33-19

    Philadelphia (46-46) @ Bronx (49-43)
    — Moore is 0-0, 3.12 in his last four starts.
    — Phillies are 6-1 in his starts.
    — over 6-1
    — allowed run in first inning: 1-7
    — record in first 5 innings: 2-2-3
    — He is 6-3, 3.86 in 12 starts vs New York.

    — Phillies are 9-5 in their last 14 games.
    — Phillies are 26-17 at home, 20-29 on road.
    — over 11-1 last 12 games.
    — scored run in first inning: 31-92
    — record in first 5 innings: 36-35-21

    — Wojchiekowski is making his first ’21 start.
    — He is 9-15, 5.95 in 57 career games (34 starts).
    — He allowed 2 runs in 0.1 IP in a relief stint vs Philly.

    — New York won eight of its last ten games.
    — New York is 5-5 in its last ten home games.
    — under 4-3 last seven games
    — scored run in first inning: 24-92
    — record in first 5 innings: 39-36-17

    Seattle (51-44) @ Colorado (41-54)
    — Seattle hasn’t named a starter.

    — Seattle is 20-8 in its last 28 games.
    — Seattle is 8-3 in last 11 road games.
    — over 13-5 last 18 road games
    — scored run in first inning: 30-95
    — record in first 5 innings: 44-44-7

    — Gomber is 3-0, 1.29 in his last four starts.
    — His last start was June 19.
    — Rockies are 7-8 in his starts.
    — under 7-2 last nine
    — allowed run in first inning: 4-15
    — record in first 5 innings: 8-5-2
    — He hasn’t pitched against Seattle.

    — Colorado is 16-13 in its last 29 games.
    — Rockies are 32-20 at home, 9-34 on road.
    — under 14-3 last 17 games.
    — scored run in first inning: 27-95
    — record in first 5 innings: 37-43-15

    Wednesday’s umpires
    SD-Atl— Road team won 5 of last 6 Timmons games.
    Over is 9-4 in Torres games.
    Mia-Wsh—Underdog is 3-2 in last five Blaser games.
    NY-Cin— Over is 14-2-1 in Meals games.
    Chi-StL— Underdogs are 7-3 in last ten Nelson games.
    Pitt-Ariz— 4 of last 5 Muchlinski games went over.
    SF-LA— Under is 5-1 in last six Fletcher games.

    Minn-Chi— Under is 6-3-1 in last 10 Guccione games.
    Bos-Tor— Underdogs are 7-2 in last nine Whitson games.
    Balt-TB— Underdogs are 6-1 in Culbreth games.
    Tex-Det— Over is 6-2 in last eight Fairchild games.
    Clev-Hst— Over is 8-5 in last 13 Baker games.

    KC-Mil— Under is 6-3 in last nine Barksdale games
    Phil-NY— Over is 10-2 in last dozen Hoye games
    Sea-Colo— Over is 5-2 in last seven May games.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 351087

      #3
      Jeff Siegel's Primed and Ready List (July 21, 2021)


      July 21, 2021
      Updated every Wednesday, the Primed and Ready List identifies horses that have recorded an outstanding workout within the past seven days and appear ready for a top performance. Workouts originate from Southern California (Santa Anita/Del Mar), New York (Saratoga/Belmont Park) and Florida (Palm Meadows) and can be viewed by clicking the link included in the description or at xbtv.com. Horses are removed following their first race after appearing on the list.


      Workouts through July 20, 2021

      CLOSING REMARKS - (C. Gaines) July 15, 2021, Del Mar, 5f, :58.3h
      View Workout

      Full of run through the lane, final half mile in :46.2 while striding out smoothly in the final stages, plenty left. Freshened, coming back in top shape for C. Gaines and will be tough vs. state-bred foes at any distance or surface when she returns.
      *
      *
      EXCELLENT TIMING - (C. Brown) July 16, 2021, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00.3b
      View Workout

      Sharp and eager in solo five furlong drill while strong throughout and mostly on his own. Stakes-winning New York-bred colt has been freshened and the time off appears to have done him some good. Stakes-quality sort when he’s on his game.
      *
      *
      FOUR GRACES - (I. Wilkes) July 16, 2021, Saratoga, 4f, :47.4b
      View Workout

      Breezing half mile drill while clearly best from Liberty M D (same time) for I. Wilkes, just cruising under a nice hold while workmate had to be asked a bit to stay even. Ran like a short horse in her comeback in Kentucky; seems likely to be fitter and improve next time out.
      *
      *
      HOPKINS - (B. Baffert) July 19, 2021, Del Mar, 5f, :59hg
      View Workout

      Unraced 3-year-old Quality Road colt brought $900,000 as a yearling and may finally be ready to face the starter based on this impressive gate drill while proving best over Gold Rush Candy (5f, :59.1hg) and Dubronik (4f, :48hg), always on his left lead but in front along the rail throughout, something left late without pressure, :46.2 and :59 flat on our watches. Turned in a series of fast works at Los Alamitos before joining the main string and should be more than fit enough by now.
      *
      *
      PATHETIQUE - (P. Bauer) July 16, 2021, Saratoga, 4f, :47.4b
      View Workout

      Under a tight hold through the lane in solo drill by Uncle Mo filly, plenty left while able to go much faster if turned loose. Walked out of the gate in her debut at Churchill Downs and never got involved but seems certain to improve with experience based on this visually pleasing drill.
      *
      *
      WINTER POOL - (C. Brown) July 17, 2021, Saratoga, 5f, :59.3b
      View Workout

      In company outside South American stakes-winner Breakpoint (same time) and held his own quite nicely without being asked, perhaps a neck back at the wire but always under a tight hold in easy breeze for C. Brown. Lightly-raced gelding has starter’s allowance conditions and should continue to improve with experience and distance.
      *
      *
      *
      *
      Workouts through July 13, 2021

      BOBBY BO – (B. Baffert) July 12, 2021, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.1h
      View Workout

      Breezing workout for B. Baffert while finishing with a ton left, final 5/8ths in :24 flat, :48.2 and 1:00.3 from the half mile pole to the 7/8 pole, never taking a deep breath. Somehow managed to get himself beat in his debut but should make amends next time.
      *
      *
      CODY’S WISH – (W. Mott) July 9, 2021, Saratoga, 4f, :48b TT
      View Workout

      Finished smoothly without being asked, plenty left while appearing quite sharp for Mott. Didn’t get the best of runs in his debut when finishing third in an extended sprint and seems sure to step forward considerably next time.
      *
      *
      LUCK – (R. Baltas) July 13, 201, Del Mar, 5f, 1:01.4h tc du
      View Workout

      Broke off a length in front of Bodhicitta (same time) and maintained that advantage to the wire in breezing drill around dogs on turf for R. Baltas. Lightly-raced filly from France moves like a very nice type and seems fairly fit. Has conditions and will make the entries soon.
      *
      *
      M IS FOR MAGIC – (P. Eurton), July 12, 2021, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3h
      View Workout

      Comebacker went nicely in easy half mile drill while getting cranked up for P. Eurton, final three furlongs in a sharp :35.1 without being asked. Coming back better than she left, it would appear, would love to see her in a high-priced maiden claimer this time around.
      *
      *
      REALM OF LAW – (C. Brown) July 10, 2021, Saratoga, 4f, :47.4b TT
      View Workout

      Solo half mile breeze for C. Brown, under wraps throughout while sharp and eager. Still a maiden after three starts but shouldn’t be one for long. Moves fine on dirt but might be more comfortable on grass.
      *
      *
      SUMTER – (R. Mandella) July 11, 201, Del Mar, 4f, :48.1hg
      View Workout

      Gate work inside Wicked (same time) and was best every step of the way while under wraps and able to go much faster if turned loose, splits of :24.2, :36.1 and :48.1, smooth as silk. Much ability, it would appear, War Front juvenile is bred for turf and should be capable of winning sprinting or routing. Excellent prospect.
      *
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      Workouts Through July 6, 2021

      CURIOUS INJI - (J. Mullins) July 4, 2021, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h
      View Workout

      Under wraps every step of the way in solo training track drill, final half mile in :24.1 and :48.4, plenty left late. Unplaced in three career starts, most recently in a maiden claiming miler (stumbled badly at the start), but the daughter of Misremembered surely appears capable of better and seems likely to surface in a winnable spot early in the Del Mar season.
      *
      *
      LADY MYSTIFY - (P. Eurton) July 4, 2021, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h
      View Workout

      Never asked in sharp five furlong main track drill, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :35.3, plenty left late. Had nothing behind her when graduating by 18 lengths last time out and will get tested on the raise, but the daughter of Bernardini seems to be made of the stuff. Ready to step forward again.
      *
      *
      SEMPER FIDELIS - (S. Joseph, Jr.) July 3, 2021, Palm Meadows, 4f, :47.1h
      View Workout

      Barn tends to let them roll in the a.m., but this lightly-raced son of Fast Anna was under cruise control throughout in sharp half mile main track drill, final three furlongs in :35 flat. Been away since December but appears to be returning better than he left and should be hard to beat vs. older maiden special weight foes.
      *
      *
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 351087

        #4
        Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Wednesday, July 21, 2021


        July 21, 2021
        Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
        *
        The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
        *
        *
        Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.



        RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: X
        Use: Pass/No Play

        Forecast: The Wednesday opener is carded for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
        *
        *
        RACE 2: Post: 1:38 ET Grade: C+
        Use: 4-Democratic Values; 6-Copa

        Forecast: Copa takes a nosedive in class for an aggressive claiming barn that isn’t opposed to stealing a purse with this type of maneuver. The son of Liam’s Map handled a restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claiming field of older horses two runs back at Keeneland with a solid speed figure but then was burned up in a pace duel in a much tougher starter’s allowance miler at Churchill Downs in his most recent start. Against this restricted (nw-3) $16,000 group from a cozy outside draw while being re-equipped with blinkers the R. Diodoro-trained gelding lands a good spot to regain his winning form. Democratic Values, listed at 6/5 on the morning line, is another big class dropper after being claimed for $40,000 last winter but clearly is not at that level now. His maiden claiming win earned a big figure, one that could beat this field, so against this group we wouldn’t be surprised to see the R. Rodriguez trained son of Honor Code snap back to life. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
        *
        *
        RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: X
        Use: 2-Coalition Building; 9-Evvie Jets

        Forecast: Coalition Building has a well-deserved reputation as a money burner, having been beaten as the favorite in each of her last three starts. The four-year-old daughter of Lemon Drop Kid shows up for the first time in a seller ($75,000) while also getting Lasix for the first time, so we’re fully expecting the C. Brown-trained filly to take full advantage of the opportunity to earn her diploma, but as a short price once again. Evvie Jets is another dropping into a claimer for the first time and has speed figures that are quite comparable to the favorite. This will be her second start off a layoff for A. Dutrow and she, too, will be racing with Lasix for the first time. In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, these are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play.
        *
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        RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: A-
        Single: 5-Ready A. P.

        Forecast: Ready A. P. didn’t run particularly fast when winning her debut earlier this month at Belmont Park, but the clock doesn’t really tell the true story. The daughter of More Than Ready broke slowly and was bumped and knocked back at the start to trail, but then quickly got into gear to move within range without being asked into the turn, took complete control when ready and then won eased up in the closing stages in a visually very impressive performance. An athletic filly with a lovely, easy stride, the C. Clement-trained juvenile received some gate education last week and looked terrific, leaving cleanly and breezing every step of the way in a team drill while going in :48 flat, the second fastest of 110 workouts for that distance. Though she’s facing males today, this is a very good New York-bred filly and from her comfortable outside draw she should be able to break well and control the pace flow while offering good wagering value in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
        *
        *
        RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: C+
        Use: 5-Gallina; 7-Raffinity

        Forecast: We have this maiden claiming extended sprint for fillies and mares down to two main players. Raffinity returns to the $40,000 ranks after failing in three consecutive outings as the favorite in tougher straight maiden events, two of which were over a wet track that she may not have cared for. Against this group the daughter of Tonalist shouldn’t have any excuses, unless it rains again, but at 3/5 on the morning line you’re not going to find any wagering value. Gallina turns back in trip, has breezed well over the track and may have some improvement in her. She’ll be running on late. There’s not a whole lot to work with here in a race that might be best left alone.
        *
        *
        RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B-
        Use: 6-Let’s Be Clear; 8-Solib; 9-Next Tuesday; 10-Take the Backwoods

        Forecast: This is a maiden special weight sprint for juvenile fillies restricted to those that went through the sales ring for $45,000 or less and therefore isn’t likely to have any monsters in it. Next Tuesday performed well in her debut when a distant runner-up to the exceptionally fast Mainstay in a strong open maiden affair at Monmouth Park last month, and with nothing that quick to worry about today the daughter of Kantharos may have found a proper spot to earn her diploma. The K. Breen stable has superior stats with the second-time starter angle (26% with a powerful ROI) so if this filly produces any kind of forward move she should be hard to beat. There are a few others to consider if you’d prefer some protection. Let’s Be Clear and Take the Backroads, two-three finishers when heads-apart at the wire in a maiden race at Churchill Downs last month, are both eligible to step forward for barns whose maidens often improve with experience. Toss in the debuting American Pharoah filly Solib (J. Rosario rides) following a series of okay drills and you’re dealing with a race with plenty of unknowns and question marks that may require a spread in rolling exotic play.
        *
        *
        RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: C
        Use: 7-Absam; 9-Prefect; 12-Gimme Some Mo

        Forecast: Gimme Some Mo looks best on paper in this restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claimer over the inner turf course, but the T. Pletcher-trained colt drew the 12-hole and will need luck to secure a decent trip from that far out. Freshened since early May and exiting three tougher starter’s allowance events, the son of Uncle Mo is dominant in the speed figure department and is reunited with “win rider: I. Ortiz, Jr., but his maiden win was accomplished in front-running fashion, and he’ll have to be used early to get over and secure that type of trip. Absam surfaces in a claimer for the first time and should fit with these, especially if a decent pace materializes to compliment his late-running style. The M. Maker-trained colt was beaten as the favorite vs. first-level allowance foes at Churchill Downs last time out so this class drop is warranted. Prefect has no tactical speed but is another dropping in for a tag for the first time in his first start since March and seems likely to improve against this group. He’s solid in the speed figure department but will need some racing luck. With a low degree of confidence, we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics in a race in which no result would surprise us.
        *
        *
        RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B
        Use: 5-Swashbuckle; 10-Three Outlaws; 12-Fast Getaway

        Forecast: Fast Getaway drops into a claimer for the first time, adds blinkers, and has several speed figures in his past performance chart that are good enough to win a race at this level. Freshened since May, the L. Rice-trained gelding finds a field without too much early speed for an abbreviated turf sprint and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Additionally, he’s run well over this course in the past. Worth some consideration in rolling exotic play are Swashbuckle and Three Outlaws. The former is lightly-raced with improvement possible and charts well with these off his state-bred allowance score two runs back, while the latter has a prior win over this course and distance and projects to enjoy a second flight trip and then have his chance from the quarter pole home.
        *
        *
        RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade:
        Single: 3-Highest Honor

        Forecast: Highest Honor has much in his favor in this competitive third-level allowance event over nine furlongs on the main track. Now five but with just six career starts on his resume, the son of Tapit returned to winning form at Belmont Park last month with a sharp tally vs. slightly softer foes in his second start off a layoff. With a healthy work tab in the interim and being a stakes winner over this track and distance, the C. Brown-trained horse seems set to produce another forward, perhaps even a career top performance. He’s most effective when allowed to settle and produce a late kick and the projected race flow seers more than sufficient early speed signed on to compliment his style. At 5/2 on the morning line, let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
        *
        *
        RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B
        Use: 4-Fast Gordon; 7-Sandor Clegane

        Forecast: Fast Gordon returns to the maiden $40,000 ranks and finds a field he should be able to handle. The son of Alpha likes to settle in mid-pack and then produce a late run, and against this group with good racing luck he should be along in plenty of time. In his only prior race at this level 10 months ago he missed by a neck while well-clear of a next-out winner, and anything close to that today will be good enough. Worth using as a back-up is Sandor Clegane, away since last October and surfacing in a claimer for the first time. The son of Constitution looks the most dangerous of the speed types based on his two races from last year.

        *
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        Comment

        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 351087

          #5
          Golden Gate Summer Leading Destinations


          July 20, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
          Golden Gate Fields returns to live racing Friday through Sunday to start a pair of three-day racing weeks. The winter-spring meet ended June 13, so it’s been about 6 weeks since the track last conducted live racing. With horses returning to the Bay Area from racing on the Pleasanton fair circuit, Emerald Downs in Washington and via Southern California, let’s dig into the Betmix database to see if we can gain any clues.
          I looked specifically at summer race dates (July, August, September) over the past 5 years since 2016.

          //

          Pleasanton Shippers

          Summer Win Rate at Golden Gate: 16.7%
          Summer ROI at Golden Gate: $0.76

          //

          Emerald Downs Shippers

          Summer Win Rate at Golden Gate: 25.6%
          Summer ROI at Golden Gate: $1.37

          //

          SoCal Shippers Shippers

          Summer Win Rate at Golden Gate via Los Al: 18.5%
          Summer ROI at Golden Gate via Los Al: $0.50

          Summer Win Rate at Golden Gate via Santa Anita: 9.7%
          Summer ROI at Golden Gate via Santa Anita: $0.31

          Summer Win Rate at Golden Gate via Del Mar: 19.4%
          Summer ROI at Golden Gate via Del Mar: $0.83

          //

          Layoffs 6-9 Weeks

          Summer Win Rate at Golden Gate: 17.0%
          Summer ROI at Golden Gate: $0.77
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          Comment

          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 351087

            #6
            Pimlico Stats: Boyce Bounding into Turf Stakes Weekend


            July 20, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
            We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Pimlico. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Maryland. And be sure to support Pimlico by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Maryland Jockey Club.

            Headlines

            Saturday will be Pimlico’s biggest card since Preakness, featuring the Grade 3 Baltimore-Washington International Cup among a quartet of turf stakes – joined by the Bald Eagle Derby, Big Dreyfus and Sensible Lady Turf Dash. Entries will be drawn Wednesday … A $16,420 Rainbow 6 jackpot pool carryover welcomes horseplayers back Friday for the 3-day racing week ... Pimlico also has a stakes triple on tap July 31 with the Deputed Testamony, Alma North and Challedon. The Deputed Testamony could lure past Pimlico Special winner Harpers First Ride, the defending race champion, while multiple stakes winner Hello Beautiful could headline the Alma North, a race that also lured the nomination of the unbeaten sprint rising star Chub Wagon.

            Stronach 5

            The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.

            1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

            Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Pimlico, each posting at least 25% wins. Speed factors continue to lead the way at Pimlico over the past month.

            Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
            Best Speed Off Track
            Jockey Meet

            Trends Last Week

            Note: Only 19 races were conducted last week due to severe weather shortening Saturday’s card.

            -- Trainer Robert Klesaris was 2-2 and the only trainer with more than a single victory. He posted a pair of turf sprint wins July 16 with Forest Boyce aboard ($7, $13). The barn had been 0-8 at the meet prior.

            -- Jockey Jevian Toledo was on point at 6: 4-0-0, but 5 of his mounts were 2-1 or less including all 4 winners – including 3 in route races.

            -- Jockey J.D. Acosta’s 9: 2-2-1 record produced a $2.24 ROI for every $1 bet. He piloted $10 and $30 winners

            -- Jockey Forest Boyce continued precision strikes at 7: 2-0-3 and is 13-24 in the exacta over the past 3 weeks. Scores came on turf at $7 and $13 this past week.

            -- Favorites were 19: 9-5-1 for 47% wins and 74% in the exacta.
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            Comment

            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 351087

              #7
              Gulfstream Stats: Plesa Paving the Way


              July 20, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
              We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Gulfstream Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in South Florida. And be sure to support Gulfstream by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Gulfstream Park.

              Headlines

              The 3-day, Friday-Sunday, racing week kicks off with a $324,424 Rainbow 6 jackpot carryover ($500,000-guaranteed pool) … This week’s feature race will be Saturday’s $75,000 Monroe Stakes for turf fillies and mares …. The Florida Sire Series for 2-year-olds takes flight July 31 with the $100,000 Dr. Fager and Desert Vixen for the juveniles and juvenile fillies … 4-time Gulfstream stakes winner Tonalist’s Shape was upset when third July 18 in allowance company, dropping her to 0-2 on the season after a stellar sophomore campaign. The news was better for her Saffie Joseph Jr. stablemates in the previous day’s $75,000 Mr. Steele Stakes as they swept the trifecta, led by Renaissance Frolic … Construction progress continues on Gulfstream’s third surface, Tapeta, and the new course is slated to be unveiled in September.

              Stronach 5

              The Stronach 5 is on temporary summer hiatus and expected to return in September.

              1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

              Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Gulfstream Park last week, each winning at a 31% or higher rate and showing a flat-bet profit. The factor Best Speed Last 3 won 37% and showed a $38.60 profit if you bet $2 win on each top choice for the week.

              Avg. Speed
              Best Speed Last 3
              Avg. Race Class

              Trends Last Week

              -- Trainer Eddie Plesa posted a 7: 3-0-0 record, including 2 wins with Edgard Zayas, and payoffs of $5, $9 and $10. Those netted a $1.79 ROI for every $1 bet. The barn is 53% in the exacta over its last 32 starters dating back to May 1.

              -- Trainer Mark Casse had a 6: 2-0-1 mark, scoring a pair of maiden special weight dashes at $9 and $10 mutuels.

              -- Trainer Oscar Gonzalez was 3: 2-0-0 behind $8 and $10 dirt sprint claiming winners. The barn had been only 2-18 since the start of June at Gulfstream before the rebound.

              -- Jockey Emisael Jaramillo led the way at 17: 5-3-0, including 6: 3-1-0 on favorites. His 5 wins came for 5 different barns.

              -- Jockey Chantal Sutherland had a solid 13: 3-0-2 ledger that produced a $1.41 ROI for every $1 bet. All 3 wins came in dirt sprints and paid $11, $11 and $13.

              -- Favorites under-performed at 29% last week and are now 15-64 (23%) the past 2 weeks.
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              Comment

              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 351087

                #8
                Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


                Parx Racing - Race #2
                #5 Whistling Fool She needs to find a whole lot more late in order to land this, but she was up close to a solid pace last time out when facing better, and she might be able to control the tempo here.
                #4 Holiday Raid She has faded in all four starts, but she has never been in this easy and should be right up on the early splits while cutting back around one turn.
                #6 Powwa of Love She's another one who hasn't shown much late interest, but she has never been in for a tag and might wake up here on the drop.
                Race Summary Whistling Fool might be fast enough to find the front in a race where the chasers may get discouraged, perhaps giving the edge to the runner that turns for home in front.
                Parx Racing - Race #5
                #3 Shero She has some pace and an ability to rate, and that should leave her in a great spot tracking the pace in the early going. Playable at somethin like the 4/1 ML offering.
                #1 Flashing Diamond She might land a dreamy trip in the pocket with some positional pace of her own in a spot with a fair bit of speed. This trip suits her style quite well.
                #6 Dilly Dilly Philly There aren't any real finishers signed on in here, but she might get outrun enough in the early stages to be forced to kick from off the pace, and she does have a little bit of back form from off the splits.
                Race Summary Shero cuts back a bit for this and might wind up in a perfect spot while tracking the pace. She rarely fires a bad one and knows how to dig in late, giving her the edge of the forward players.
                Parx Racing - Race #7
                #5 I Say I Play There are plenty of tactical types in here who want to spy the speed, but this guy might be quick enough to get right up on the splits to get the jump turning for home. He was close to a quick pace last time out, so it might be worth forgiving that fade job and take a better number today.
                #10 Wicked Finn He just scored with similar in a slow race for the level, and he's probably a bit overbet right back with this group. Respect the turf form, but he's probably an underlay.
                #1 Extrasexybigdaddee He has acquitted himself nicely enough in some recent stakes tries, turning in some decent efforts despite not being a serious threat. He should appreciate this softer group today.
                Race Summary I Say I Play sat close to quick splits in that last one, so he might be able to stick around better today with a more manageable race flow to work with. If the spying types don't come calling too early, he might have enough left at a better price than he offered last out.
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                Comment

                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 351087

                  #9
                  Frank Carulli's Daily Picks


                  Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1
                  #3 DEWAR N JACK Can make good use of his speed off 5-month layoff in this spot.
                  #1 ROCK KING DEO Rallied for a win and three thirds the last four times he stayed flat.
                  #2 QUICK FUN N Gets class relief, gets Dunn to try and end season-long skid.
                  Race Summary Dewar N Jack starts fresh, draws favorable post and holds a tactical advantage on the class drop. He is a solid play at 5-2 or higher. Play 3-1 and 3-2 exactas.
                  Yonkers - Race #1
                  #4 ART HISTORY Duplicate of race two back could produce quick claim dividend.
                  #3 CARTERS CAPER Rallied for second in 3 of his last 4 starts at half-mile ovals.
                  #2 BARGAIN SHOPPER Disappointed in latest but can't be discounted off prior efforts.
                  Race Summary Art History worked hard to secure rail position in the middle half two starts back, only to wilt in deep stretch on a sloppy track. He seeks his 32nd win off the claim by Bongiorno. Play a 4-ALL exacta.
                  Scioto Downs - Race #3
                  #8 BORNTOBEHSHAMELESS Right set-up, right price despite outside starting spot.
                  #2 CODY HANOVER Speed of the speed, held for minor share in 4 of last 5 starts.
                  #1 GALLANT STAR Could sit pocket trip as solid 3yo season resumes from inside post.
                  Race Summary Borntobeshameless, no factor in a pair of fast races from post 9, rallied strongly to finish second the previous two times he stayed on stride. He's worth a price shot with plenty of speed in front of him. Play 8-1 and 8-2 exactas.
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                  Comment

                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 351087

                    #10
                    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ajax Downs



                    Ajax Downs - Race 7
                    Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta
                    Stakes • 220 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 84 • Purse: $19,890 • Post: 4:12P
                    QUARTER HORSE 220Y, QROOI SPRINT SERIES #2 S. - FOR NOMINATED THREE YEAR OLDS & UPWARD. 10 HIGHEST MONEY EARNERS PREFERRED. CONSULT QROOI STAKES BOOK FOR PAYOUT PERCENTAGES AND FURTHER STAKES RACE DETAILS.
                    Contenders
                    Race Analysis
                    P#
                    Horse
                    Morn
                    Line
                    Accept
                    Odds

                    Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * COUNTRY BOY 123: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating.
                    2
                    COUNTRY BOY 123
                    3/1
                    2/1

                    P#
                    Horse (In Running Style Order)
                    Post
                    Morn
                    Line
                    Running Style
                    Good
                    Class
                    Good
                    Speed
                    Early Figure
                    Finish Figure
                    Platinum
                    Figure
                    1
                    SHES SIZZLING
                    1
                    10/1
                    Average
                    84
                    82
                    3.6
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    2
                    COUNTRY BOY 123
                    2
                    3/1
                    Fast
                    98
                    96
                    1.9
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    3
                    JESS A SWEET SUPRIZE
                    3
                    4/1
                    Average
                    85
                    84
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    4
                    SILKEN SIRI
                    4
                    10/1
                    Average
                    80
                    80
                    4.3
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    5
                    CARNEROS
                    5
                    6/1
                    Average
                    80
                    80
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    6
                    ARCTIC FAME
                    6
                    12/1
                    Average
                    82
                    80
                    3.9
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    7
                    ZOXTOBEYOU
                    7
                    8/1
                    Slow
                    84
                    82
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    8
                    NIGHT FISHN
                    8
                    8/1
                    Average
                    82
                    81
                    5.0
                    0.0
                    0.0
                    9
                    CHICKSDIGMYMONEYBAGS
                    9
                    7/2
                    Average
                    84
                    79
                    4.2
                    0.0
                    0.0
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                    Comment

                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 351087

                      #11
                      F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

                      Mountaineer Park - Race 2
                      2nd Half Daily Double $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 3 (races 2-4) $1 Wheel
                      Starter Allowance $4,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Turf • Ages 3 and up CR: 87 • Purse: $14,200 • Post: 7:25P
                      FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4,000 OR LESS IN 2020 - 2021. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 21 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES) (PREFERENCE TO HIGHEST EARNINGS IN 2020-2021). (IF NECESSARY WILL BE RUN SAME DISTANCE MAIN TRACK.).
                      Contenders
                      Race Analysis
                      P#
                      Horse
                      Morn
                      Line
                      Accept
                      Odds

                      Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * VALYCOVE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ECRU: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CAPPY HOUR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. VEYA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DYNAFORM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
                      5
                      VALYCOVE
                      7/5
                      5/1
                      7
                      ECRU
                      5/2
                      6/1
                      8
                      CAPPY HOUR
                      10/1
                      7/1
                      2
                      VEYA
                      10/1
                      9/1
                      3
                      DYNAFORM
                      6/1
                      9/1

                      P#
                      Horse (In Running Style Order)
                      Post
                      Morn
                      Line
                      Running Style
                      Good
                      Class
                      Good
                      Speed
                      Early Figure
                      Finish Figure
                      Platinum
                      Figure
                      8
                      CAPPY HOUR
                      8
                      10/1
                      Front-runner
                      93
                      78
                      99.0
                      81.8
                      75.8
                      6
                      JUDAH
                      6
                      12/1
                      Front-runner
                      91
                      80
                      63.6
                      76.0
                      65.0
                      7
                      ECRU
                      7
                      5/2
                      Alternator/Front-runner
                      90
                      90
                      85.3
                      80.6
                      76.1
                      3
                      DYNAFORM
                      3
                      6/1
                      Stalker
                      91
                      78
                      86.2
                      74.2
                      63.2
                      1
                      CLYDE PARK
                      1
                      15/1
                      Stalker
                      81
                      75
                      75.8
                      57.8
                      44.3
                      5
                      VALYCOVE
                      5
                      7/5
                      Stalker
                      89
                      84
                      70.4
                      82.9
                      78.9
                      4
                      ARCH REVENGE
                      4
                      8/1
                      Stalker
                      79
                      77
                      69.2
                      76.8
                      65.8
                      2
                      VEYA
                      2
                      10/1
                      Stalker
                      87
                      81
                      65.6
                      81.6
                      72.1
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                      Comment

                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 351087

                        #12
                        Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



                        Belterra Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:35pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,200 Class Rating: 79

                        Rating:

                        #7 RAF (ML=9/2)


                        RAF - This jock/handler duo has been producing a very lucrative ROI, right at +42. The most recent rating of 79 is the top last race speed figure in the group. Reyes should have him moving solid on the turn.

                        Vulnerable Contenders: #5 NOT NOW RAND (ML=5/2), #1 QUEEN'S PALACE (ML=7/2), #2 SIN CITY SLICK (ML=4/1),

                        NOT NOW RAND - When scrutinizing today's class figure, he will have to garner a much better speed rating than last out to vie in this dirt sprint. QUEEN'S PALACE - Didn't hit the board on June 16th at Belterra Park. Followed it up with another less than stellar try. SIN CITY SLICK - This entrant didn't go to the lead and didn't make up ground in the stretch last time he ran.



                        STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #7 RAF on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
                        EXACTA WAGERS: 7 with 3

                        TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                        None
                        SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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                        Comment

                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 351087

                          #13
                          Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

                          Always check program numbers.
                          Odds shown are morning line odds.




                          Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $28900 Class Rating: 100

                          FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR PENNSYLVANIA BRED OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE MAY 21 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE

                          RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                          # 6 RAVENS DELIGHT 4/1
                          # 10 KING BUBBLE (IRE) 7/2
                          # 4 DAZZLING TRUTHS 3/1
                          I like RAVENS DELIGHT here. Is a very strong contender based on figures recorded lately under today's conditions. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Hernandez will almost certainly have this gelding in excellent position to win the competition. Posted a respectable Equibase Speed Figure last time out. KING BUBBLE (IRE) - This selection will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today. Lately Gonzalez has provided players with a very strong winning percentage with horses moving in turf route races. DAZZLING TRUTHS - Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of quite good win percentage - 21 percent - at this distance & surface.
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                          Comment

                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 351087

                            #14
                            Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

                            Always check program numbers.
                            Odds shown are morning line odds.




                            Race 4 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $31000 Class Rating: 84

                            FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, IN 2021. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

                            RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                            # 2 DR BLARNEY 6/5
                            # 4 MR. PETE 3/1
                            # 5 HEYITSNRICOPALAZO 5/1
                            DR BLARNEY looks to be a respectable contender. Is worth careful consideration and may be a wager - strong speed figures (95 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Has very strong speed figures and has to be considered for a bet for this race. Must be considered based on the quite good speed rating earned in the last competition. MR. PETE - Will most likely compete very well in the early pace battle which bodes well with this field. Must be carefully examined in this race if only for the very strong speed figure earned in the last race. HEYITSNRICOPALAZO - He has a decent distance/surface win record - 5 out of 17. Expect this animal to be close at the finishing post versus these racers.
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 351087

                              #15
                              Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga



                              07/21/21, SAR, Race 9, 5.39 ET
                              07/21/21,SAR,9,1 1/8M [Dirt] 1:46:03 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $110,000. (UP TO $19,140 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 THREE TIMES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $100,000. Three Year Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races Other Than Claiming Or Starter At A Mile Or Over In 2021 Allowed 2 lbs. One such race in 2021 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $100,000 (Allowance Horses Preferred)(1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void).
                              . . . .
                              Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
                              After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
                              100.0000 7 American Dubai 10/1 Cohen D Diodoro Robertino TL 220 35.45 1.65/$1
                              099.4380 3 Highest Honors 5/2 Ortiz J L Brown Chad C. 220 35.45 1.65/$1
                              098.9807 2 Forza Di Oro 9/5 Alvarado J Mott William I. E 220 35.45 1.65/$1
                              098.8963 1 West Will Power 3/1 Rosario J Breen Kelly J. SW 220 35.45 1.65/$1
                              098.5396 5 Empty Tomb 6/1 Ortiz. Jr. I Maker Michael J. J 220 35.45 1.65/$1
                              095.0259 6 Trident Hit 12/1 Castellano J Moquett Ron FC 220 35.45 1.65/$1
                              094.0301 4 Core Beliefs 12/1 Saez L Lynch Brian A. 324 35.80 1.43/$1
                              Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 38.30, ROI 1.08/$1
                              Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.5620
                              [Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
                              [All Categories] Last Race Was Not Favorite(not entry)
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