Saturday 7/17/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Race of the Week: United Nations at Monmouth

July 15, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

$500,000 GRADE 1 UNITED NATIONS STAKES AT MONMOUTH PARK
Saturday, July 17, 2021

The Lead:
Before they blare "Born to Run" for the main event on Haskell Day at the Jersey Shore, Monmouth's premier turf race will set the table. The Grade 1 United Nations goes as Race 11 on the card and immediately precedes the featured Haskell. The 1-3/8 miles turf test is one of two money-back guarantee races offered by Xpressbet and 1/ST BET at Monmouth on Saturday, joining the Haskell. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third.

Field Depth:
ARKLOW is the field's signature winner at the Grade 1 level. TRIBHUVAN is a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed. IMPERADOR was a Group 1 winner in Argentina, while MASTER PIECE won at the Group 2 level in Chile.

Pace:
TRIBHUVAN has been an assumed rabbit in recent races who didn't get the memo that he was there just to set the table. Expect him to be on or near the lead with EPIC BROMANCE, WINTERS BACK and OCEAN'S MAP potential speed to his inside. The pace should be very solid for 11 furlongs.

Our Eyes:
ARKLOW was the 6-5 favorite in this race last summer, lagged early and didn't muster much run when fourth. The 7-year-old has made $2.75 million overall and has rebounded to win 3 of his 4 starts since last year's misfire. Jockey Florent Geroux won this United Nations in 2016 and has been a stalwart with Brad Cox for the past few years. They'll team up with Mandaloun in the Haskell as well. This should be a faster pace than the veteran is used to, and he struggled with that in the Pegasus World Cup the last time posed with such a scenario in 2020. Respect him, but shop around some.

TRIBHUVAN, MASTER PIECE and SERVE THE KING all represent the nation's premier turf barn of Chad Brown. He won this race in 2013, 2015 and 2018, the latter with 7-year-old Big Blue Kitten. This trio of 5-year-olds are pups in comparison. SERVE THE KING has been playing off-Broadway for Brown at Tampa and Monmouth, but does lure local leading jockey Paco Lopez, who won this race in 2019. MASTER PIECE has a Keeneland allowance win sandwiched between modest Grade 1 efforts since coming stateside from South America. Both of these have a lot of improvement needed to catch TRIBHUVAN, who appears much strongest of the Brown band.

WINTERS BACK led most of the Grade 3 Monmouth in the local prep before giving way late over a quarter-mile shorter in trip. The projected solid pace makes his task even tougher. GLYNN COUNTY steps up in class while in good form from Kentucky, but has not hinted at being this type of performer to date.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
TRIBHUVAN has speed, class and connections. He may not negotiate the entire mile and three-eighths, but he'll be punching for the superfecta in some fashion.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
FANTASIOSO teased me at Keeneland with a hint of player about him, and his last 2 races sort of followed suit. He cuts back from the 2-mile Belmont Gold Cup, but adds blinkers that could sharpen him for his rally. The pace will be strong in front of him, and underrated rider Miguel Mena rarely gets bet in races of this caliber. That should help elevate the price.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$40 win FANTASIOSO. $15 exacta key-box FANTASIOSO with ARKLOW and TRIBHUVAN ($60).

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Fun in the Sun: Saratoga/Del Mar Contest Starts Saturday

July 14, 2021 | By Johnny D

Xpressbet’s popular and profitable Fun in the Sun tournament returns Saturday for another exciting season and it’s your opportunity to make this summer memorable. In a good way, that is. Last summer’s empty Saratoga and Del Mar grandstands won’t soon be forgotten, but this year we’re back on track, baby; and it’s time to create a winning experience you’ll proudly recall again and again.

Fun in the Sun is a weekly online handicapping competition open to Xpressbet account holders that begins Saturday, July 17, and is offered each Saturday through August 28. A $25 weekly registration fee is required to play and all fees are returned to players in the form of prizes. That’s right, no takeout! Zero. Zilch. Zip. In fact, the Xpressbet suits are even going to add a whopping $10,000 to the Saturday, September 4 Final Table kitty!

How can you reach the Final Table? Simple. Well, the process is simple, but a challenge to accomplish. And you wouldn’t want it any other way. Finish in the top-five ranked players weekly, based on total earnings from live $10 Win wagers on one horse in each of 10 competition races, and you’ll earn a seat at the Final Table. That’s where qualified players will match handicapping wits Saturday, Sept. 4 for shares of a $10k-added prize pool.

Besides Final Table seats to the top five finishers, weekly prizes include 70% of the gross weekly registration fees (30% goes toward the Final Table pot). The top earner each week will collect 60% of the kitty, with 25% to second and 15% to third (plus seats at the Final Table). Fourth and fifth-best weekly finishers will earn Final Table seats. Weekly competition races are the last 5 races from Saratoga and the first 5 races from Del Mar.

Plus, with Fun in the Sun, even if you don’t earn a weekly prize, you still can come out ahead by cashing one or two of those $10 contest win wagers. Since those bets are ‘live,’ you keep what you win. A nice-priced winner or two will put you ahead for the week!

To register and for complete rules and information visit xpressbet.com/tournaments.

You know you’re going to bet Saratoga and Del Mar beginning Saturday. Why not add a little spice to your weekend horseplay this summer with Xpressbet’s $10,000-added Fun in the Sun? See how your Saratoga picks and Del Mark picks stack up with competition.

See you Saturday!

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Jeremy Plonk: Haskell Post Draw Reaction | Saturday, July 17

July 14, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s 54th running of the Grade 1 $1 million Haskell Stakes at Monmouth lured Kentucky Derby runner-up Mandaloun, Preakness runner-up Midnight Bourbon and Belmont Stakes runner-up Hot Rod Charlie among a field of 7 as drawn this afternoon. The mile and one-eighth Haskell, which has been run since 1968, has seen 11 of its winners go on to be named Champion 3-Year-Old at year’s end, including last year’s titlist and Horse of the Year Authentic.

Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie will leave the gate alongside one another in posts 3 and 4, respectively. Hot Rod Charlie was tabbed the 6-5 morning line favorite with Mandaloun co-second choice at 3-1. Rail-drawn Following Sea was also projected at 3-1 in his stakes debut. The Haskell’s other leading player, Midnight Bourbon, starts from post 6 at 9-2 in the morning line.

Horseplayers betting the Haskell with Xpressbet and the 1/ST BET app can take advantage of up to a $10 money-back guarantee on win bets if your selection finishes second or third. The money-back special also will be offered on the Grade 1 United Nations on the Monmouth undercard.

Since all four of the race’s key players have a forward running style and the Haskell typically plays to early speed, it will be interesting to see how the battle shakes out. Widest-drawn Midnight Bourbon attracts leading local front-running ace Paco Lopez to the saddle and could be used aggressively. Don’t be surprised if he’s the pace marker trying to hustle and clear into the clubhouse turn. Rail-drawn Following Sea makes his stakes debut as well as his 2-turn unveiling under the typically patient Joel Rosario. Following Sea competes for 3-time Haskell-winning trainer Todd Pletcher.

As for the battle of the runner-ups, note that Kentucky Derby second-place finishers like Mandaloun have a strong history in the Haskell. Such winners since 1999 include Menifee, Lion Heart, Bluegrass Cat, Exaggerator and most recently Good Magic in 2018.

For more handicapping analysis of this year’s Haskell, be sure to check back Friday at Xpressbet.com and news.1st.com for Eddie Olczyk and Jeff Siegel’s exclusive handicapping video.

Monmouth Park // Grade 1 Haskell // 5:47 pm ET // 1-1/8 miles

1. Following Sea (Joel Rosario) 3-1
2. Antigravity (David Cohen) 30-1
3. Mandaloun (Florent Geroux) 3-1
4. Hot Rod Charlie (Flavien Prat) 6-5
5. Pickin’ Time (Nik Juarez) 20-1
6. Midnight Bourbon (Paco Lopez) 9-2
7. Basso (Isaac Castillo) 30-1

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Jon White's Haskell Picks

July 15, 2021 | By Jon White

The $1 million Haskell Stakes, premier race of the 2020 Monmouth Park meet, has attracted a field of seven to do battle at 1 1/8 miles.

Louisiana Derby winner and Belmont Stakes runner-up Hot Rod Charlie has been installed as the 6-5 morning-line favorite in the Grade I event.

When I have attempted to pick the winner of the Haskell for the past many years, a good place to start generally has been to take a serious look at the horse or horses trained by Bob Baffert. Why? Baffert has won the Haskell a record nine times.

Not only does Baffert have nine Haskell victories to his credit, 14 of his 15 starters in the race have finished first or second. That’s truly remarkable. Baffert’s only Haskell starter to have finished out of the exacta was Forestry, who ran third behind Menifee and Cat Thief in the 1999 renewal.

Did I go with Baffert last year? No. Knowing that the Baffert-trained Authentic would be a heavy favorite, I decided to opt for someone who would be a better price. Dr Post was my top pick.

I was right that Authentic would be hammered in the wagering. He was sent away as the 3-5 favorite. Dr Post went off at 9-5.

Authentic won, though he almost blew it. After opening a 2 1/2-length lead a furlong from the finish, he won by a scant nose. Authentic almost got nailed at the finish by Ny Traffic, who had to settle second at 5-1 while giving the odds-on favorite a real scare.

Dr Post? He finished third and lost by 4 1/2 lengths.

Well, I don’t have to decide whether to go with or against Baffert in this year’s Haskell. That’s because he is not running a horse in this year’s renewal. But my top pick does happen to be a former Baffert trainee.

My selections for the Haskell are below:

1. Following Sea (3-1 on the morning line)
2. Hot Rod Charlie (6-5)
3. Mandaloun (2-1)
4. Midnight Bourbon (9-2)

As I have stated previously, I think Following Sea might -- I repeat, might -- be a special talent. And as I noted last week, I am not the only one who has this thought.

I recently asked a sharp East Coast observer for his opinion of Following Sea. This person is involved in racing and has had a great deal of success in his particular line of work. I am not identifying him because he spoke to me off the record.

“The sky is the limit” for Following Sea, he said. “He’s about as exciting a horse as I’ve seen in quite a long time.”

New Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher is Following Sea’s current trainer after the colt began his racing career with Hall of Famer Baffert.

Following Sea is by Runhappy, the Eclipse Award-winning champion male sprinter of 2015. Runhappy is by Super Saver. Pletcher won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver.

When conditioned by Baffert, Following Sea made his career debut in a strong six-furlong maiden race at Santa Anita on March 6. In a 12-horse field, Following Sea was pounded down to 9-10 favoritism, but he did not win. He finished second, then was disqualified and placed third for causing interference.

Defunded, also trained by Baffert, won that March 6 maiden contest going away by 2 1/2 lengths at odds of 8-1 in his 2021 debut and second career start. In his only start at 2, Defunded finished third in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden race at Del Mar on Aug. 16.

After his maiden score, Defunded has gone on to finish fourth in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, fourth in the Grade I Pat Day Mile, second in the Grade III Affirmed Stakes and second in the Grade III Los Alamitos Derby for Baffert.

As for Following Sea, a modest 77 Beyer Speed Figure by such a highly regarded 3-year-old in his career debut was a major letdown.

But in his next start, Following Sea did justify the high expectations for him. He won a six-furlong maiden race geared down by 5 3/4 lengths at Oaklawn Park on April 10. His significant improvement in the Beyer Speed Figure department to a 97 demonstrated just how much better he ran this time than at first asking.

After Following Sea graduated from the maiden ranks in Arkansas, Pletcher took over the training duties. Pletcher ran him in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance race on a wet track listed as good June 3 at Belmont Park. Following Sea stepped the opening quarter in :22.03, then zipped the half in :44.79 and six furlongs in 1:08.82 before completing his 6 1/2-furlong journey in 1:15.28.

Following Sea was credited with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his June 3 victory. Just as impressive as the robust Beyer was the consummate ease with which the figure was accomplished.

After Following Sea’s June 3 win, Pletcher talked about Belmont’s Grade III Dwyer Stakes at one mile on July 5 or the Haskell as possible next starts for the colt.

Following Sea did not run in the Dwyer. First Captain won that $250,000 race and was credited with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure.

If Following Sea had started in the Dwyer, I believe he almost certainly would have won if he had run anything like he did in his last two races when posting Beyer Speed Figures of 97 and 100. The Dwyer not only quite likely would have been Following Sea’s first graded stakes victory (which is important), he would have collected the $137,500 winner’s share of the purse.

But instead of competing in the Dwyer, Following Sea shows up in the much tougher Haskell. This, to me, is a big sign of confidence in him on the part of his connections when the Dwyer was seemingly a gimme.

There is a potential problem for Following Sea in the Haskell. It’s the 1 1/8-mile distance. He is being asked to race farther than 6 1/2 furlongs for the first time. Fueling concern in this regard is the fact that Following Sea is by a sprint champion. Not only that, his dam, Quick Flip, also is by a sprint champion in Speightstown.

Pletcher is cautiously optimistic that Following Sea can carry his speed beyond sprints.

“He’s a very leggy, classic two-turn looking horse from a physical standpoint,” Pletcher said in a Daily Racing Form story written by Marcus Hersh. “Watching him train, his works have been always impressive, well in hand, good long-winded gallop outs. This race would answer a lot of questions [regarding stamina].

“His last two races, he won being eased to the wire,” Pletcher continued. “He has a high cruising speed we feel like could stretch out. This isn’t the easiest race to try it, especially with some other speed. But if I were a competitor, I’d be wary of trying to go with him early.”

Look for Following Sea to play the “catch me if you can” game in the Haskell.

As for the preponderance of speed in Following Sea’s pedigree, at least there is some hope that he might be effective in two-turn races in that, as mentioned early, his paternal grandsire, Super Saver, had the stamina to win the Kentucky Derby.

HOT ROD CHARLIE MERITS RESPECT

Possessing enough stamina to succeed in the 1 1/8-mile Haskell certainly is not a concern for Hot Rod Charlie. He won the Grade II Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles in March, finished a respectable third in the Grade I Kentucky Derby at 1 1/4 miles in May, then ran a huge race in defeat when the runner-up in the Grade I Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles in June.

Trained by Doug O’Neill, Hot Rod Charlie finished second in the Belmont, 1 1/4 lengths behind Essential Quality and a whopping 11 1/4 lengths in front of third-place finisher Rombauer, who was coming off a win in the Grade I Preakness Stakes.

What made Hot Rod Charlie’s performance in the Belmont so impressive is he managed to finish second despite running the first quarter-mile in :22.78 or :22 3/5 in fifths. It was the fastest opening quarter in the history of the Belmont when contested at 1 1/2 miles. The Belmont was first run in 1867.

Prior to Hot Rod Charlie, the quickest initial quarter in the Belmont when run at 1 1/2 miles had occurred all the way back in 1945. That’s when The Doge covered the initial quarter in :22 4/5, a torrid pace in such a long race on what was then a deep track. The Doge paid the price for his early efforts. He faltered and finished seventh in the field of eight. Pavot won by five lengths, while The Doge lost by a little more than 24 lengths.

The Belmont has been run at 1 1/2 miles a total of 95 times. Hot Rod Charlie ran the opening half-mile in :46.49 or :46 2/5 in fifths. The only horse to ever record a faster time for the first half-mile in a 1 1/2-mile Belmont was Secretariat, who was clocked in :46 1/5.

Below are the horses responsible for the only :46 and change fractional times in the history of the Belmont at 1 1/2 miles:

Year Time Horse, Finished (Winner if Different)

1973 :46 1/5 Secretariat, finished 1st
2021 :46 2/5 Hot Rod Charlie, finished 2nd (Essential Quality)
2013 :46 3/5 Frac Daddy, finished last in field of 14 (Palace Malice)
1991 :46 3/5 Corporate Report, finished 4th (Hansel)
1966 :46 3/5 Highest Honors, finished last in field of 13 (Amberoid)
1959 :46 3/5 Manassa Mauler, finished 4th (Sword Dancer)
1996 :46 4/5 Appealing Skier, finished 12th (Editor’s Note)
1957 :46 4/5 Bold Ruler, finished 3rd (Gallant Man)

The above chart points out just what a terrific race Hot Rod Charlie ran in defeat. Despite recording the second-fastest half-mile time in the history of the race when contested at 1 1/2 miles, he finished far in front of everyone other than Essential Quality.

The following splits all belonged to Secretariat when he won the Belmont by 31 lengths to end a 25-year Triple Crown drought:

:23 3/5, :22 3/5, :23 3/5, :24 2/5, :24 4/5, 25 flat

These were the splits in this year’s Belmont:

:22 3/5, :23 3/5, :25 2/5, :25 1/5, :24 4/5, :24 3/5

Essential Quality, only a head off the leading Hot Rod Charlie at the quarter pole, is the one who ran the final quarter in :24 3/5. All the other splits belonged to Hot Rod Charlie.

Adding one-fifth of a second because Hot Rod Charlie lost by 1 1/4 lengths means that even though he recorded the fastest opening quarter fraction in the history of the Belmont when contested at 1 1/2 miles, he still ran the final quarter in :24 4/5, a fifth of a second faster than Secretariat in his Belmont.

BLINKERS OFF THIS TIME

Hot Rod Charlie will be racing sans blinkers in an equipment change this Saturday. This is particularly interesting when viewed in the context of how much better he ran last year after blinkers were added.

In his first three career starts last year, Hot Rod Charlie lost them all. His Beyer Speed Figures were 51, 56 and 57.

Hot Rod Charlie then showed dramatic improvement with blinkers. He recorded a 78 Beyer when victorious in an Oct. 2 maiden race at Santa Anita, followed by a 94 Beyer when second at odds of 94-1 in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland on Nov. 6.

In his four starts so far this year, Hot Rod Charlie’s Beyers have been a 94 when third in Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes, 99 in the Louisiana Derby, 100 in the Kentucky Derby and 108 in the Belmont.

But now Hot Rod Charlie’s blinkers are coming off. He did not have blinkers when he worked five furlongs in 1:00.40 last Friday at Santa Anita. Official clockers listed that work as “breezing.” At Southern California tracks, a workout rarely is listed as breezing, which is to indicate that the horse worked considerably easier without any urging at all than a horse whose workout is termed “handily.”

“We’re trying to get the natural competitive abilities to shine without blinkers,” O’Neill said to Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen regarding the decision to have Hot Rod Charlie’s blinkers removed for the Haskell

WHAT KIND OF BEYER IS LIKELY NEEDED TO WIN?

In American Pharoah’s first start following his Triple Crown sweep in 2015, he won the Haskell by 2 1/2 lengths as a 1-10 favorite. He logged a 109 Beyer Speed Figure.

Since American Pharoah, the four Haskell winners have recorded Beyers from 95 to 102.

Based on the Beyers for the most recent four Haskell winners, it seems to me that something like a 99 to 101 might be sufficient to get the job done this Saturday.

If that turns out to be the case, it’s another indication that Following Sea can win the Haskell in view of how easily he ran a 100 Beyer last time out.

The only two other Haskell entrants to have ever achieved a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure are Hot Rod Charlie and Mandaloun.

All of Hot Rod Charlie’s Beyer Speed Figures were mentioned earlier.

When Mandaloun ended up sixth as the 13-10 favorite in the Louisiana Derby, he recorded an 82 Beyer Speed Figure. But he then was credited with a career-best 101 Beyer when he finished second in the Kentucky Derby. He defeated Hot Rod Charlie by a half-length that day.

In his most recent start, Mandaloun regressed to a 94 Beyer when he won Monmouth’s 1 1/16-mile Pegasus Stakes by a neck as a 3-10 favorite on June 13. Brad Cox trains the Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt.

Even though Midnight Bourbon has yet to record a Beyer of 100 or higher, he could prove a tough customer in the Haskell. Trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, the Kentucky-bred Tiznow colt ran second to Rombauer in the Grade I Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on May 15 when last seen under silks.

Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon have met four times this year, as shown below:

--Kentucky Derby on May 1 (Mandaloun second, Midnight Bourbon sixth)

--Louisiana Derby on March 20 (Midnight Bourbon second, Mandaloun sixth)

--Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 13 (Mandaloun first, Midnight Bourbon third)

--Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 16 (Midnight Bourbon first, Mandaloun third)

SUPER SIRE GALILEO DIES; SON WINS BELMONT DERBY

The champion racehorse and fantastic sire Galileo died last Saturday in Ireland at his longtime home, Coolmore’s headquarters in Ireland.

According to a Coolmore news release, the decision to euthanize Galileo stemmed from what was characterized as “a chronic, non-responsive, debilitating injury to his left front foot.” He was 23.

“It’s a very sad day,” Coolmore’s John Magnier said in the news release. “But we all feel incredibly fortunate to have had Galileo here at Coolmore.”

Owner of a tremendous pedigree (by outstanding sire Sadler’s Wells out of 1993 Arc winner Urban Sea), Galileo won six of eight career starts, highlighted by a victory in the coveted Group I Epsom Derby in 2001.

In his final career start, Galileo finished sixth at odds of 7-2 in the Grade I BC Classic at Belmont Park in 2001. Tiznow that day became the first and still only two-time BC Classic winner.

Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Galileo won six of eight lifetime starts and earned $2,245,373.

“He was always a very special horse to us and he was the first [Epsom] Derby winner we had in the post-[Vincent] O’Brien era,” John Magnier said of Galileo in the Coolmore news release. “I would also like to thank Aidan and his team for the brilliant job they did with him. The effect he is having on the breed through his sons and daughters will be a lasting legacy and his phenomenal success rally is unprecedented.”

Galileo owns the world record for having sired the most individual Group/Grade I winners, the most recent of these being Bolshoi Ballet.

Also last Saturday, Bolshoi Ballet became Galileo’s 92nd individual Group/Grade I winner when he took the Grade I Belmont Derby on the grass at Belmont Park.

As a stud, Galileo is best known for siring the great Frankel, who won all 14 of his races and is regarded as one of Europe’s all-time greats. Galileo also is the sire of a record five winners of the Epsom Derby (New Approach in 2008, Ruler of the World in 2013, Australia in 2014, Anthony Van Dyck in 2019 and Serpentine in 2020), plus two winners of the prestigious Group I Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Found in 2016 and Waldgeist in 2019).

In addition to Galileo’s prowess as a racehorse and sire, he has proven to be a tremendous sire of sires. A multitude of Galileo’s sons have sired a Group/Grade I winner.

CAME HOME ALSO A NOTABLE EQUINE DEATH

Meanwhile, BloodHorse reported that multiple Grade I winner Came Home died July 8 after a bout with colic. He was 22.

The announcement of Came Home’s death brought back a brief conversation I had with actor Jeff Bridges one autumn morning at Santa Anita in 2002.

Before I relate my conversation with Bridges, let me give you some background.

While I was in Las Vegas in February 2002, I noticed that Came Home was 100-1 in the Kentucky Derby future book on the board at the Barbary Coast. Sometimes the price on the board does not match the price you get when you go to make your bet. Thus, I wanted to make sure that was the price before making a wager.

“What price do you have on Came Home to win the Kentucky Derby?” I asked the teller.

“100-1,” he replied.

Hearing that, I put down a crisp $100 bill.

“How much of that do you want to bet, sir?” the teller asked.

“All of it.”

That meant that if Came Home captured the 2002 Kentucky Derby, I would win $10,000.

When I made my bet in Vegas, Came Home already had made one start that year. He had won Santa Anita’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs by four lengths. He then won Santa Anita’s Grade II San Rafael Stakes at one mile by three lengths on March 2 and the Grade I Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles by 2 1/4 lengths on April 6.

But, alas, Came Home did not win the Kentucky Derby. Sent off at 8-1, he raced close up early before finishing sixth at 8-1, while War Emblem won by four lengths at 20-1.

Later that year on Aug. 25, I was at Emerald Downs to be one of the commentators on the Fox Sports Northwest telecast of the Grade III Longacres Mile. The Pacific Classic was run that same afternoon at Del Mar. While the horses were on the track for the Pacific Classic, I was in the conference room at Emerald, doing research for the Longacres Mile. Sitting across the table from me was ESPN’s Chris Lincoln.

“I am going to be sick if Came Home wins the Pacific Classic,” I said to Lincoln.

“Why is that?” he asked.

“Because I had $100 on him at 100-1 in the future book for the Kentucky Derby,” I said. “I would have made 10 grand if Came Home had won the Kentucky Derby. But War Emblem won the Kentucky Derby. And now War Emblem and Came Home are running against each other today in the Pacific Classic. If Came Home wins today, I will be sick.”

War Emblem finished sixth in the Pacific Classic as the 6-5 favorite. Came Home did win by three-quarters of a length at odds of 10-1.

When Came Home reached the finish line in front, I pounded my fist on the conference table. As I recall, there were maybe seven or eight people in the conference room.

“Okay everybody,” Lincoln said. “Take all sharp objects away from Jon White.”

Despite being bummed out by seeing Came Home win and beat the Kentucky Derby winner, I couldn’t help chuckling when Lincoln said that.

Accompanying BloodHorse’s recent story on Came Home’s death was a video of his victory in the Pacific Classic. With some sharp objects nearby, I could not bring myself to look at the video.

After the Pacific Classic, Came Home won once more before going to stud. The Gone West colt started in the 2002 BC Classic at Arlington Park on Oct. 26. Voloponi won the BC Classic that year. Came Home finished 10th.

Four days before the 2002 BC Classic, Came Home had what would be the final workout of his career. I was at the Gonzalez barn at Santa Anita that morning to watch the workout. Trudy McCaffery, one of Came Home’s owners, also was on hand to observe the drill.

That was when McCaffery introduced me to Bridges, who had accepted McCaffery’s invitation to come out to Santa Anita and watch Came Home’s workout. McCaffery and Bridges were friends. At that time, Bridges was preparing for his upcoming role as Charles S. Howard, the owner of Seabiscuit, in the 2003 film about the 1940 Santa Anita Handicap winner.

McCaffery had known about my Kentucky Derby future book wager on Came Home. As we all accompanied Came Home to the track from the barn on that October morning, McCaffery asked me to tell Bridges about that bet.

I told Bridges that I had put $100 on Came Home in the Kentucky Derby future book at 100-1. If Came Home had won the race, I would have made $10,000.

I went on to say that, unfortunately for me, Came Home did not win the Kentucky Derby. But he then won the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, beating the Kentucky Derby winner, War Emblem.

As we walked along, Bridges seemed to be listening intently to what I was saying. After I was finished with my tale, he waited a bit before he said anything. He seemed to be processing what I had just told him.

After a few minutes, Bridges said, “Let me get this straight. You bet $100 on Came Home in the Kentucky Derby at 100-1?”

“That’s right,” I replied.

“And if Came Home had won the Kentucky Derby, you would have won $10,000?”

“Yep.”

“And then Came Home beat the Kentucky Derby winner at Del Mar?”

I said that also was correct.

Bridges paused, then shook his head.

“Man, I really feel for you,” Bridges said.

THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

There is no change to the order regarding the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll.

Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 298 Letruska (13)
2. 266 Maxfield (6)
3. 244 Mystic Guide (7)
4. 225 Domestic Spending (7)
5. 205 Silver State (1)
6. 193 Essential Quality (2)
7. 133 Knicks Go
8. 90 Gamine
9. 55 Max Player
9. 55 Monomoy Girl

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Al Cimaglia: Meadowland Pace & Late Pick 4 Analysis

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July 17, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, all eyes will be on the Meadowlands as the signature race in East Rutherford, the Meadowlands Pace with a $700,000 purse rolls in Race 9. The rainy weather could play a factor like it did last Saturday in the Eliminations. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 11 and the sequence has a $75,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout.

Race 9-Meadowlands Pace-$700,000 Purse

3-Chase N Hanover (15-1)-It would be difficult to believe many will use this Captaintreacherous 3-year-old on top but it is a wide open race and the weather forecast is problematic. Sears hasn't done much this year but he is still capable of putting this Scott Cox entry in play. Wasn't used hard in his Elim, can manage on an off track and should be a healthy price. Plus, usually races on smaller ovals but paced well down the stretch. This will be my key and has hit the board in 14 of 17 lifetime with 5 wins.
4-Southwind Gendry (3-1)-Comes a sharp effort last week and looks like a main player tonight. It's hard to say how the money will be spread around. But the Gingras-Burke combo attracts interest and there might not be any value if bet down. It's still best to respect last week's performance was not a fluke.
1-Perfect Sting (7/2)-Dave Miller is the master of measuring efforts and saving some gas for the Final. Breeders Crown Champ could be sitting on a big race. Not sure Miller can wire this field but he could be on the engine or in the pocket right after the word GO.
5-Lawless Shadow (10-1)-Woodbine-Mohawk regular had a nice effort in last and that was the 1st start over the M1 surface. It was also the 1st time this colt raced on an off track. This is another that should offer a solid price and could step up off last week's effort.
7-One Eight Hundred (9/2)-Takter trainee didn't look like a 2/5 shot but did safely qualify. It is probably a mistake to overlook. But the track could be in a similar condition as rain is in the forecast most of the day. Will respect the Takter-Tetrick connection, especially if overlooked at the windows.

$10 Win on 3
$8 Exacta 3/1,4, $4 Exacta 3/5,7
$8 Exacta 1,4/3, $4 Exacta 5,7/3
Total Bet=$58

0.50 Late Pick 4-$75,000 Guaranteed Pool

Race 10

4-Cattlewash (7/2)-Left hard from post 8 last week and sealed the deal with a .53 back half for the 1st win in 2021. Miller provided a nice trip and from this post may look to get on the engine. Could be time for a winning streak.
5-Tattoo Artist (10-1)-Left hard last week to get the top and sizzled a 53.3 first half in the slop. Did fade to 3rd but still had a 27.1 last quarter. The Ryder barn has been cold but this 4-year-old is worth a swing at the morning line price.
7-This Is The Plan (5/2)-Has banked over $500k this year so far, took the long way around in last and still won. Hard to leave out with recent sharp form but this is a tough bunch and should be a short price. Has won only 2 of 17 at the Big M.

Race 11

1-Rattle My Cage (8-1)-The chart maker called it an interference break in last but not sure that was correct. Either way it was a sloppy track and a rain storm so there were excuses. This barn is batting 29% winners over the last 30 days and Tetrick should have this colt in striking range throughout. Might be overlooked at the windows.
2-Captain Corey (5/2)-Svanstedt trainee makes 1st Big M start of the season after a nice qualifier on 7-10. Gingras takes a seat tonight, he steered in the tune-up and came the back half in .55 flat. Looks ready for a big try.
3-Venerate (9/5)-Just an amazing effort last week on an off track and raced parked out the entire mile. The trip will be much better this time but won't be 7/2.

Race 12

7-Sandbetweenmytoes (9/2)-Not my favorite horse but was Dunn's choice and may have met a field to record its first M1 victory, currently (0-7). Dunn was in the bike in the last start at Phl on 6-27 and scorched the 1st half in 52.4. Best to respect, has faced some tough customers here in 2021 and this is a better level for success.
9-Shoobee Doo A (3-1)-Did keep grinding at this class and finished 3rd by a neck last week in the first Big M start. This 6-year-old likes to win and if the pace is hot it could be time for a trip to the winner's circle.

Race 13

1-Ana Malak N (9/2)-This is not the most formful bunch and Ana has the gate speed to get the point and control the race. Will need a big try to take a picture at this class but drawing the rail could be a difference maker plus 1st time Dave Miller may help.
4-Covered Bridge (6-1)-Gingras returns and this Burke pupil has been involved in some fast miles in East Rutherford. Looking for a sharp steer and with a top effort the biggest check is within reach versus this field.
6-Dealer's Table (7/2)-Steps-up and wasn't Tetrick's choice but that last mile was impressive. Drew off by >8 lengths and Sears should be aggressive from this post. Best to remember that on 4-3 beat the NW15000L5 here from this post.
8-Ima Real Ladys Man (3-1)-This was Tetrick's choice over #6 and will toss last in the slop, off-track record is 1-13. The pace could be lively and that should help, so will include and respect connections. But doesn't warrant a short price.

0.50 Late Pick 4
4,5,7/1,2,3/7,9/1,4,6,8
Total Bet=$36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - July 17, 2021

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July 17, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C
Use: 1-Poseidon’s Kid; 2-Head for Business; 7-Just Ask Ethan

Forecast: Head for Business missed by a neck in a similar maiden $50,000 sprint at Santa Anita last month while more than five lengths clear of the rest. However, It wasn’t a great race – the Beyer Speed figure of 59 is 16 points lower than par for this level - so while the R. Hess, Jr.-trained gelding probably will go favorite he doesn’t necessarily have to win. Perhaps a tad more attractive is Poseidon’s Kid, runner-up in both of his career starts and with speed figures that match up quite favorably with Head for Business. With a repeat of his second place finish at Los Alamitos last month (when winding up four lengths clear of the others) he’s a major player but must overcome the rail draw. Debuting Just Ask Ethan certainly won’t have to be any type of world beater to be competitive with this group. The work tab over the glib Los Alamitos main track (where even modest maiden claimers can record fast times) is impressive taken on face value and the B. Koriner barn has okay stats with first-timers, so this late-to-the-party four-year-old colt has to be included in a race that we’ll otherwise sit out.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Rocktillyoudrop; 6-Raging Waters; 9-Half Right

Forecast: Low level $20,000 3-year-old claimers sprint six furlongs in the second half of the early daily double. New York invader Half Right shows up seeking some of that lucrative ship-and-win money and is cozily drawn outside in a lackluster affair, so based on his dirt form (which is better than his grass efforts) the son of Alpha may have found his friends. We’re expecting the D. O’Neill-trained sophomore to inherit an ideal stalking trip and then have his chance from the quarter pole home. Raging Waters has finished first or second in six of 10 career starts but his recent form is below his best. Perhaps with this class drop and the presence of a seven pound bug rider the S. Knapp-trained colt could return to life. Rocktillyoudrop plummets in class while seeking his winning level and may have found it, but his lack of tactical speed makes his rail post position draw problematic. On numbers he’s a fit so we’ll use him but not with a great deal of confidence. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Big Impact; 8-What in Blazes

Forecast: State-bred juveniles occupy the third race, a five furlong maiden sprint with What in Blazes the logical top pick after missing by less than a length at 70 cents on the dollar in his recent debut at Los Alamitos. The son of the speedy freshman sire Straight Fire earned a pretty good speed figure even in defeat, so if he produces any type of forward move the J. Hollendorfer-trained colt should be difficult to deny. Big Impact has shown a bit of run in the a.m. for B. Koriner and may be worth using as a back-up or a saver. He’s been holding his own in workouts with older stable mates and if our top pick fails to fire for whatever reason this son of Dynamic Impact may have a real look at it.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Lalic; 5-California Kook; 9-Cassie Belle

Forecast: California Kook was given sprint prep in her first outing in nearly six months at Santa Anita and today, with some of that rust shaken off, should be sharper and tighter while stretching out over a turf course we know she likes. The P. Miller-trained filly switches to good grass rider J. Bravo, shows three good breezes since that tightener last month and can pull off a mild surprise in a wide open turf miler for entry-level allowance fillies and mares. Cassie Belle adds blinkers after a series of consistently solid outings and projects to be prominent throughout in a field without a whole lot of early speed. We suspect that with the hood on the daughter of Lucky Pulpit will be on or near the lead throughout. Lalic is the most dangerous of the closing types. Unproven around two turns but a winner of three consecutive grass sprints at Santa Anita from off the pace vs. lesser foes, the French-bred filly has rising speed figure and a legitimate chance in an open fray. We’ll use all three in rolling exotic play and then press with California Kook in the win pool.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Smash Ticket; 6-Baby Steps

Forecast: Smash Ticket tipped her hand with an excellent runner-up effort in her debut at Lone Star Park in early June, overcoming a slow start and a wide trip to wind up second behind the speedy Wicked Halo in a hot race while finishing more than 10 lengths clear of the rest. Nothing more should be needed in this five furlong maiden special weight sprint for this daughter of Midnight Lute to earn her diploma. The best of the newcomers may be Baby Steps, a first-timer by Jimmy Creed that brought $70,000 through the ring at the OBS March sale after she previewed in :10 flat. Locally, she’s displayed good speed in her gate works and in fact may be quicker than our top pick. So might Ruby Ray, a decent runner-up in her debut and likely to improve with that bit of experience behind her. However, she drew the rail, which pretty much takes all of her options away.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: C
Use: 2-Drop Anchor; 4-Play the Wildcard; 6-Gates of Heaven; 10-Pelican Way

Forecast: This race looks treacherous, with nothing but question marks surrounding the main contenders. Anything can happen. Gates of Heaven, away since February and returning as a first-time gelding, is a prior winner over the Del Mar main track and has numbers that make him a solid fit in this $16,000 extended sprint for restricted (nw-2) older horses. The barn’s “go-to” rider J. J. Hernandez takes the call and should have this son of Kantharos in a good early stalking position, ready to pounce when called upon. Drop Anchor, a $30,000 claim by R. Hess, Jr. last time out at Churchill Downs, shows up for $16,000 (and as a first-time gelding) in his California debut and could improve considerably, although his recent form looks ugly. He broke his maiden first time out from far back sprinting so similar strategy likely will be employed by U. Rispoli. Play the Wildcat, off the track since February of 2020, invades from Oaklawn Park and was awful in a pair of outings early in his sophomore season. His debut maiden win over the all-weather surface at Woodbine was actually quite good. Who knows what we’ll see today. Pelican Way earned an okay speed figure when beating a moderate band of maiden $20,000 foes in mid-March and hasn’t been seen since. He’s not being protected in his first start back, but he does have the proper closing style for this extended sprint trip, so we’ll toss him in on a few tickets as well.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Anatarctic; 5-Luck of the Draw

Forecast: Here’s another challenging affair, a mid-grade claiming miler on grass with a pair of shippers looking like the ones to beat. Antarctic arrives with good form from Lone Star Park that if duplicated on this circuit can land him in the winner’s circle. Always thoroughly genuine and consistent with 15 first or second place finishers from 32 career outings, the J. Thomas-trained gelding is drawn nicely in the two-hole and should inherit an ideal ground-saving pace-setting or forcing trip and then have his chance to seal the deal when it counts. On pure numbers he’s a strong fit and worthy of top billing. Luck of the Draw, a $32,000 M. Maker claim at Churchill Downs last month, drops a notch in his first start for his new connections, attracts top turf rider U. Rispoli, and is another that should be prominent throughout. He’s not quite as fast on figures as our top pick but seems certain to enjoy the type of trip that will at least land him in the frame. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in rolling exotic play but if you feel the need to include a few more, go right ahead.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Silver Moon Road; 4-Beyond Brilliant; 5-Established

Forecast: Here's a strong, competitive race for the level, a main track miler for entry-level allowance older horses. Beyond Brilliant was visually quite impressive breaking his maiden at Santa Anita when earning a career top speed figure, and while another forward move will be required to repeat on the raise the son of Twirling Candy should be forwardly placed, free of trouble, and have every chance. Though he won his most recent start as the controlling speed, he’ll probably have to stalk and pounce today. Established exits a fast, highly-rated sprint while leaving his Midwest form far behind for new trainer R. Baltas and his past performance charts suggests today’s two-turn stretch out will be well within his capabilities. The lightly-raced Constitution gelding projects to be prominent throughout, maybe even on the lead depending upon whether Brutto from the 9-hole is sent from the bell. Though on paper he appears to be biting of more than he can chew, recent maiden claiming winner Silver Moon Road might be worth including as well, at least as a saver. The lightly-raced gelding earned a giant number when beating a modest field on the front end sprinting at Santa Anita in mid-June and is protected today in a sign of confidence by trainer T. Yakteen. Numbers-wise, he’s really not far behind the main contenders.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Sedamar; 4-Tapwater

Forecast: Tapwater just failed to see out the trip when weakening late to wind up third in the 12-furlong Santa Barbara S.-G3 at Santa Anita last time out but shortens to a mile today in this year’s renewal of the restricted Osunitas S. The lightly-raced five-year-old daughter of Tapit has won over the local lawn in the past, continues to impress in the a.m. and should enjoy the patient, covered up trip that brings out her best. Sedamar, three times stakes placed but not yet a black type winner, has been freshened since the winter but has won off layoffs in the past and has worked like she’s fit and ready for trainer S. Ruis. The California-bred daughter of Richard’s Kid has a good stalking style and sports a superb record over the Del Mar turf course (seven starts, five wins, two seconds), so we suspect she’s extremely live and well-meant. We’ll give Tapwater the slight edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Royal Ship; 5-Express Train; 7-Magic On Tap

Forecast: Royal Ship appeared on his way to victory in the Hollywood Gold Cup but lost his steam close home and dropped a head decision to Country Grammar while far clear of the rest in a tough beat. This shortened trip won’t bother in him the least and his recent workouts indicate he’s maintained his form, so the R. Mandella-trained import from Brazil should be set to regain his winning form. In a race that lacks pace and may produce soft early fractions, we’re hoping that jockey M. Smith uses him just a bit during the early stages to gain a favorable position. Express Train, a well-beaten third in the Gold Cup and a tad disappointing in his last pair after narrowly missing in the Santa Anita Handicap, could easily return to top form over the Del Mar main track which the form says he’s partial to. Based on the “horse for course” angle, we have to consider him a major player. Magic On Tap finished almost 24 lengths behind Royal Ship two races back in the Californian S.-G2 but then snapped back to life with a clever score in the Triple Bend S.-G2 when shortened to a sprint in late May. The son of Tapit certainly can handle two turns and continues to train well, so we’ll have a ticket or two with him as a back-up while reserving the main punch for Royal Shipp.

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RACE 11: Post: 7:00 PT Grade:
Use: 2-Wyfire; 7-Mohawk King; 10-Lincoln Hawk

Forecast: The nightcap looks more like a listed stakes event for 3-year-olds than a first-level allowance affair. A few of these no doubt will be seen later in the season in the La Jolla S. and/or Del Mar Derby. Mohawk King has yet to be tried around two turns, but his sprint form is excellent and his pedigree suggests he’ll improve as the distances increase. Since being imported from England, the son of Siyouni finished second in a pair of hot affairs, both times behind the talented Whatmakessammyrun, and if he can project that ability over a distance of ground, the S. Callaghan-trained colt will be tough to beat. Wyfire is another being sent long for the first time while removing blinkers (love that angle) and with a good sprint prep under his belt off a long layoff the P. Miller-trained gelding should be primed for a significant effort. His speed figures have risen in each of his four career starts and from where he’s drawn the son of Dominus could find himself as the controlling speed. Lincoln Hawk will be running on late and if the pace turns up contested, all the better. It may be significant, though, that regular pilot J. J. Hernandez jumps off to pilot Mohawk King, who he’s been riding regularly as well.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - July 17, 2021

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July 17, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Neuro; 8-Sheriff Bianco; 9-Martinez

Forecast: Sheriff Bianco looks highly logical in the Saturday Spa opener, a turf sprint for older state-bred maidens. The W. Ward-trained colt missed by a head in a similar affair at Belmont Park in early June, has trained well since at the barn’s home base at Keeneland, and catches a modest field that should be able to handle. Neuro actually is faster on speed figures than our top pick but is a 13-race maiden and therefore not one to trust. The son of Freud should be doing his best work late and with clear sailing figures in the fray in the final furlong. Martinez, away since December and returning as a first-time Lasix user, is another that tends to be sluggish early but should be able to pick it up through the lane and be a late factor. In a race that we’ll probably not get too involved in, all three should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Baby Yoda; 5-Repo Rocks

Forecast: Baby Yoda is listed at 7/2 on the morning line but we wouldn’t be surprised if he leaves lower than that. A shipper from Pimlico and now in the W. Mott barn, the sophomore gelding broke his maiden at the bottom by eight lengths and then actually moved forward according to his numbers when third after a slow start in a first-level allowance affair last month. Though this group could be tougher than the field he just faced, the son of Prospective likely has plenty of improvement still in him and could be up to the task. Repo Rocks is listed as the even money favorite, and while he’s certainly the one to beat based on pure form he’s not quite as solid as the odds will show, having finally broken his maiden in his 11th career outing with a strong speed figure that strikes us as being a bit inflated. We’ll use him but try to beat him.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B+
Use: Love and Money; 7-Magisterium; 9-Third Draft

Forecast: Love and Money earned a giant speed figure when graduating at first asking in gate-to-wire fashion sprinting at Monmouth Park last month and today tackles tougher after moving to the C. DeVaux barn. Very quick and almost certainly the controlling speed, the daughter of More Than Ready had the pedigree to stay the mile and should be dangerous right back despite the class hike. An impressive series of workouts at Keeneland since that race indicates she's likely to step forward. Magisterium is listed at 10-1 on the morning line but we suspect in her first start since being claimed for $62,500 by O. Noda (21% with this angle) the Irish-bred filly will get plenty of play. Though worn down late after hitting the front and missing at 4/5 last time out, she’s likely to inherit a good stalking journey, and if our top pick fails to see out the trip she’ll be in the right spot to pick up the pieces. Third Draft has steadily rising speed figures for Shug and should at least hit the board. Toss her in as a saver or a back-up.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:47 PT Grade: B-
Use: 7-Grape Nuts Warrior; 8-Austrian; 9=Matty’s Express

Forecast: Austrian, freshened since Aqueduct after a series of good, consistent outings in starter allowance and state-bred affairs, seems fairly solid in this first-level affair for New York bred older horses and if he fires his best shot the D. Gargan-trained colt should be hard to beat. The son of Freud likes to settle in mid-pack and then rally when called upon and is reunited with “win rider” L. Saez, who was aboard in a career top victory at Gulfstream Park during the winter. Grape Nuts Warrior a clever debut winner at Belmont Park in April and then a respectable third when troubled in this condition in his most recent start, adds blinkers today and should continue to improve with experience. The C. Brown-trained son of Vancouver will be doing his best work from the top of the lane to the wire. Matty’s Express seems most effective when held up early behind cover and then produced late. Given that type of trip, the K. Breen-trained gelding should be set for an improved effort in just his third start of the year.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:23 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Uninvited Guest; 7-Montauk Point; 9-Chattalot

Forecast: Uninvited Guest has the benefit of a prior run, a wiling runner-up effort at Monmouth Park while appearing to need more ground to work with. He’ll get an extra half-furlong today, and with the expected forward move for T. Pletcher (23% with second timers) the son of Distorted Humor should bet set to graduate. There are two debut runners that warrant consideration in rolling exotic play. Montauk Point, a Violence colt that brought $550,000 as a yearling, is a half-brother to the brilliant sprinting filly Covfefe and has done some good work in the a.m. but goes for a barn that doesn’t often win with first time starters. We’ll use him, nonetheless. Chattalot is a June foal by Midnight Lute with a staying bottom line, but he displayed quick action when breezing in 10 seconds flat at the OBS April sale and put together a series of fast workouts at Keeneland before vanning up to the Spa. The S. Asmussen barn has been red hot with its babies this summer and we suspect this colt will turn up live on the tote.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Rattle N Roll; 4-Portfolio Company

Forecast: Portfolio Company breezed like a nice colt on the local main track for C. Brown six days ago but as a son of Kitten’s Joy almost certainly will show his best stuff on grass. He gets his chance in this two-turn turf affair for juveniles and appears cranked up and ready to go in a field filled with unknowns and question marks. Based on his connections, he’s certain to get plenty of play. Rattle N Roll was off slowly, green, and fell back early but took hold through the lane and finished willingly before galloping out in front entering the clubhouse turn when third in a dirt sprint at Churchill Downs last month. The K. McPeek-trained son of Connect will likely improve with experience and distance and clearly is the best of the known element. We’ll prefer Portfolio Company on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1a-Shekky Shebaz; 2-Battle Station; 4-Souper Dormy

Forecast: Familiar faces meet in this second level allowance/optional claiming sprint at five and one-half furlongs on turf in a race in which several have a legitimate look. Spread as deeply as your budget allows. Shekky Shebaz, a two time winner over the local lawn, was worn down late while perhaps in need of the outing when second in a similar affair at Belmont Park in late May in his first start since the previous September. If he can produce even a slight forward move, the veteran gelding can win, but the same can be said for a few others. Souper Dormy, in the frame in his last three starts and always dangerous from off the pace, is solid on numbers and shows a bullet half mile main track drill here in :47 seconds flat, the fastest of 89 for the distance. The M. Casse-trained colt has a chance to make some noise in the late stages and should be a decent price. Battle Station has disappointed lately but could perk up with the return to his favorite course (three wins in five starts). The barn’s “go to” rider D. Davis takes the call so at 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:03 PT Grade:
Use: 1-Beau Liam; 5-Ten for Ten; 12-Mahaamel

Forecast: Beau Liam won his debut at Churchill Downs in powerful fashion with a monster number, doing so with a perfect trip from a cozy outside post against a moderate group. He’s good for sure, but this will be a much tougher test, especially from the rail against several more seasoned horses that have accomplished speed figures similar to his. The son of Liam’s Map was able to settle off the leaders and produce his run when ready; today he’ll probably be under pressure every step of the way, so it will be interesting to see what he’s made of. Mahaamel broke he maiden in his second career start after an excellent runner-up debut performance behind unbeaten First Captain and is the likely choice and one to beat, especially from his favorable outside draw. This extended sprint distance appears made to order for this high potential son of Into Mischief. Ten for Ten makes his first start since he was beaten a neck in the Remsen S.-G1 last December, and it’s logical to expect that he’s using this race as a spring board to a more serious effort over a distance of ground. However, Shug has a good record with comebackers and the son of Frosted will be racing with Lasix for the first time, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll toss him in.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:40 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Wit; 2-Candy Landing; 9-Headline Report

Forecast: Wit seemed hopelessly beaten after a poor start in his debut at Belmont Park in early June but figured things out after the opening quarter mile and launched an extended rally wide that produced a six length margin of victory that could have been more had he not been taken in hand in the final sixteenth of a mile. He’s come back to train extremely well since that race for T. Pletcher and will be hard to beat once again, though this time he would be encouraged to break well from his rail post position. Two other first-out winners must be considered strong contenders and are worth including in your rolling exotics. Headline Report was bet like he couldn’t lose at Keeneland (1/5) and didn’t, as he proved much the best despite a slow start. He’s a strong, powerful colt from the first crop of Gormley and brought $550,000 at the OBS March Sale. Candy Landing was a convincing winner at Churchill Downs last month, scoring with authority with a pace pressing trip. Interestingly, his Beyer speed figure (70) is the exact same number assigned to Wit’s winning effort.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:16 PT Grade: B+
Use: 6-Summer Romance ; 8-Althiqa

Forecast: Summer Romance ran too well to lose when worn down by stable mate Althiqa in the Just A Game S.-G1 in her U.S debut on Belmont Stakes day but at this longer nine furlong trip – the same distance that produced her thoroughly convincing score in the Balanchine S.-G1 in Dubai last winter – the daughter of Kingman should take full advantage of her projected role as the controlling speed and perhaps turn the tables on her talented stablemate in a race that seems certain to produce soft splits. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Summer Romance on top.

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RACE 11: Post: 6:51 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Deferred Taxes, 7-Ducale; 8-Askin for a Baskin

Forecast: Ducale tipped his hand with an excellent debut effort at Churchill Downs last month, winding up in a dead-heat for second in a strong heat that produced a sharp number. The B. Cox second-timers almost always step forward (30% win rate) so we’re expecting this son of Twirling Candy to be hard to deny. Askin for a Baskin earned a huge figure when second to the highly-promising Muhaamel in his second career start and today will add blinkers and switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. A similar effort today probably wins, the only question being how much the muddy track moved him up, if at all. At 12-1 on the morning line, we’ll also include Deferred Taxes. The Flintshire colt has yet to run to his sharp works but will be making his first start on dirt, so perhaps the surface switch will make a big difference, his grass pedigree notwithstanding.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

AI Picks: Haskell at Monmouth | July 17, 2021

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July 16, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saturday’s Grade 1 $1 million Haskell at Monmouth is summer’s first major reunion of the Triple Crown class. The runners-up in the Kentucky Derby (Mandaloun), Preakness (Midnight Bourbon) and Belmont (Hot Rod Charlie) all are in attendance. To help you tackle the main event, the 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence provides its look at the Haskell field.

Get up to a $10 money-back guarantee if your win bet finishes second or third when you bet the Haskell – and Saturday’s United Nations at Monmouth – with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.

Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

We’ve included the track’s morning line odds with each entrant.

Haskell Stakes // Monmouth Park // Race 12 // 5:47 PM ET

#4 Hot Rod Charlie (6-5) // 32%W // 48%P // 60%S
#1 Following Sea (3-1) // 25%W // 50%P // 69%S
#3 Mandaloun (2-1) // 11%W // 33%P // 46%S
#2 Antigravity (30-1) // 11%W // 19%P // 34%S
#6 Midnight Bourbon (9-2) // 9%W // 19%P // 35%S
#5 Pickin’ Time (20-1) // 6%W // 21%P // 37%S
#7 Basso (30-1) // 6%W // 10%P // 19%S

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Arlington - Race #6

#2 Zulu Alpha	He's going to be a short price, but he has run well here in the past and brings the kind of running lines that none of these can touch. The sharper trip is a mild concern, but he should be too good for these with a decent race shape waiting for his late kick.
#3 Background	He'll be making his turf debut after a really nice effort in the Hanshin on the main track last time out. Not sold on the pedigree, but the current form is there in an iffy bunch.
#7 Bizzee Channel	He has the pace to get in the mix early on and has been nearly perfect over the local footing. He's not totally exposed at a trip like this.
Race Summary	Zulu Alpha has fired fresh before and can probably handle these if he returns with anything approaching his baseline effort.

Arlington - Race #7

#5 Bodenheimer	There isn't a ton of serious early pace, and this guy seems fast enough to find the front if they want it. He does have to turn the tables on King of Miami, but he's still the classiest one in here and might show it at a square price today.
#6 El Kabong	He'll rise out of the maiden ranks for this one, but he has been putting things together in recent starts. He's tactical enough to find a midpack spot, and he's in the mix with a move forward.
#2 Accredit	His two turf races have been been solid, and he figures to land another perfect pressing trip today. He's probably the one to beat off that good Churchill score last out.
Race Summary	Bodenheimer turned in a decent effort when racing around two turns for the first time at Canterbury, and he can probably move forward off that first route try.

Arlington - Race #8

#6 Joy Epifora	She has been in pretty good form against some solid groups over the last year, and she isn't meeting the deepest Modesty field we've ever seen. Guessing this is where she lands her North American graded score.
#5 Oh So Terrible	She fired a pretty race race off the bench here last year, so there's a chance she's ready to roll in this spot. She has some speed, but she'll be racing without blinkers off the layoff today. Price player for a piece?
#8 Naval Laughter	She has some obvious talent some pace to utilize early, but she's stepping up for the turf debut and might find a couple of the more experienced ones a bit too tough.
Race Summary	Joy Epifora has the running lines to land this, and she may have finally found the right spot. I'll try to get Oh So Terrible in the mix with the listed and logical players.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Pocono Downs - Race #1

#2 HUDSEN A	Perfect fit at this level, knows how to win, draws favorable post.
#5 CAPTAIN HILL	Changed tactics, led until stretch, but only after the fave broke stride.
#8 TUXEDO BAY	Desperately held on as odds-on choice after missing a week sick.
Race Summary	Hudsen A held his pocket position through a :27.2 third-quarter and won in a similar spot at Harrah's Philadelphia, then rallied for second against better last week. He's 14-41 so we'll give him the nod again. Play 2-4, 2-5, 2-6 and 2-8 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #9

#8 ABUCKABETT HANOVER	Taken to upset in Meadowlands Pace in topsy-turvy 3yo division.
#7 ONE EIGHT HUNDRED	Won his last two starts on a fast track in 1:48 and 1:48.4.
#1 PERFECT STING	Champion 2yo took aim from third but couldn't reach in Pace elimination.
Race Summary	The Meadowlands Pace entrants have taken turns beating each other recently, often at big odds. Abuckabett Hanover could join the list if he bounces back from a dull try in the slop last week when he he took serious money, raced mid-pack in a single-file alignment most of the way and didn't threaten on a sloppy track. He should pick up live cover with plenty of speed in the 10-horse field in his second try at the Big M after a series of summer races at 5/8 and 1/2-mile ovals.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #2

#1 WHITECOOKIE	Loomed first-over on class hike to this level, but came up short as the fave.
#6 GROOVY JOE	In the money in 6 of 11 this year, class drop helps.
#8 REAL WILLEY	Exits fast heats, has enough speed to get position from post 8.
Race Summary	Whitecookie stepped up to this level off a runaway victory, ranged up first-over for the stretch drive but flattened out as the favorite. He scratched sick in a scheduled follow-up start against better, now draws the rail in his bid to eclipse $100,000 in earnings. Play a 1-ALL exacta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Del Mar - Race #9

#4 Tapwater	Set the pace and was caught late for third in the G3 Santa Barbara last out and is on the improve.
#9 Brooke	Was third in both U.S. starts after tremendous form in her native Chile; ran vs. good foes in the G3 Megahertz and G3 Wilshire. Fits here.
#2 Sedamar	Made a big run for second in the G3 Megahertz but didn't fire last out in the G2 Buena Vista; can get back to good form here.
Race Summary	Tapwater has moved up in class in her last two and proved she belongs vs. tough company; has the tactical speed to secure a good trip.

Del Mar - Race #10

#4 Royal Ship	Has really come on lately and is acclimating nice to the U.S. after being on top in Brazil; Mandella has him doing his best and the Midshipman gelding comes in off a photo finish loss in the G1 Gold Cup.
#5 Express Train	Has been in the hunt in every one of his races since December and took the G2 San Pasqual early in the year; improved position for third in the G1 Gold Cup and can be in the mix throughout.
#6 Mo Mosa	G3 Steve Sexton Mile winner at Lone Star last out after a clear win over some decent foes in the Bosselman Gus Fonner in Grand Island. Maker has him in good form and he's sticking with capable journeyman rider Ramon Vazquez. Should be taken seriously here.
Race Summary	Royal Ship just missed in the Gold Cup and continued progression gets him to the winner's circle; another South American runner that is making his mark in California ad he's the one to beat here.

Del Mar - Race #11

#1 Jimmy Blue Jeans	Shipped from his home base at Golden Gate and held on against fellow Cal-breds for a huge score in the Snow Chief at Santa Anita. He's perfect in two starts on turf and trainer Andy Mathis is letting him stick to the grass.
#7 Mohawk King	Was second in both U.S. starts after winning two of four in Great Britain; stretches out from sprints and could be difficult to catch.
#10 Lincoln Hawk	Was up in time for a maiden win in his first U.S. distance try after finishing second in a sprint (both at Santa Anita); Irish import has a good late move and fits well.
Race Summary	Jimmy Blue Jeans tackles open company after a stakes win over state-breds and he won two back against open company at Golden Gate; loves the turf and can be on the scene early in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

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Gianni the Greek

Event: (24329) Malcolm Gordon at (24330) Francisco Figueredo
Sport/League: MMA (See all free MMA picks)
Date/Time: July 17, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Total Under 2.5 (-145)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

Event: (509) Milwaukee Bucks at (510) Phoenix Suns
Sport/League: NBA (See all free NBA picks)
Date/Time: July 17, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: 1H Phoenix Suns -2.0 (-115)