Wednesday 7/7/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2021, 06:19 AM

MLB

NL games
Dodgers (53-33) @ Miami (37-47)
— bullpen game

— Dodgers are 9-6 in their last 15 games.
— Dodgers are 10-7 in their last 17 road games.
— over 6-4 last ten road games
— scored run in first inning: 24-86
— record in first 5 innings: 44-28-14

— bullpen game

— Marlins are 8-12 in their last 20 games.
— Miami is 4-5 in its last nine home games.
— under 16-10-1 last 27 games
— scored run in first inning: 18-82
— record in first 5 innings: 32-35-15

Atlanta (41-44) @ Pittsburgh (32-53)
— Smyly is 4-0, 1.21 in his last four starts.
— Braves are 7-3 in his last 10 starts.
— under 3-0 last three
— allowed run in first inning: 1-14
— record in first 5 innings: 9-3-2
— He is 0-1, 4.56 in four starts vs Pittsburgh.

— Braves are 12-15 in their last 27 games
— Atlanta is 5-10 in its last 15 road games.
— under 10-4-1 in last 15 games.
— scored run in first inning: 30-85
— record in first 5 innings: 43-30-12

— Crowe is 1-1, 4.74 in his last four starts.
— Pirates are 4-7 in his starts.
— over 5-1-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 4-11
— record in first 5 innings: 2-7-2
— He is 0-0, 8.59 in two starts vs Atlanta.

— Pirates won their last three games.
— Pittsburgh is 11-10 in its last 21 home games.
— under 6-4-1 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 24-85
— record in first 5 innings: 25-48-12

Milwaukee (51-35) @ Mets (44-37)
— Anderson is 0-2, 5.63 in his last six starts.
— Milwaukee is 6-6 in his starts.
— under 5-2-1 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 3-12
— record in first 5 innings: 4-6-2
— He hasn’t pitched against New York.

— Burnes is 2-0, 2.78 in his last six starts.
— Milwaukee is 7-7 in his starts.
— over 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 2-14
— record in first 5 innings: 7-3-4
— He threw 2.1 scoreless IP, in a relief stint vs New York.

— Brewers won 13 of their last 16 games.
— Milwaukee won seven of last ten road games.
— over 6-5 last 11 road games.
— scored run in first inning: 29-86
— record in first 5 innings: 40-28-18

— deGrom is 1-0, 2.14 in his last four starts.
— Mets are 10-4 in his starts.
— over 3-0-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-14
— He is 3-3, 4.80 in eight starts vs Milwaukee.

— Nightcap is a bullpen game

— Mets are 9-12 in their last 21 games.
— Mets are 19-7 in their last 26 home games.
— under 6-2 last eight home games.
— scored run in first inning: 19-81
— record in first 5 innings: 37-34-10

Philadelphia (41-42) @ Cubs (42-44)
— Wheeler is 2-1, 0.85 in his last five starts.
— Phillies are 10-7 in his starts.
— under 6-0 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 4-17
— record in first 5 innings: 6-6-5
— He is 2-1, 4.18 in five starts vs Chicago.

— Phillies are 4-1 in their last five games.
— Phillies are 24-16 at home, 17-26 on road.
— over 3-0 last three road games.
— scored run in first inning: 28-83
— record in first 5 innings: 32-31-20

— Mills is 1-2, 3.52 in five starts.
— Cubs are 2-3 in his starts.
— under 5-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
— He gave up 3 runs in 6 IP, in a relief stint vs Philly.

— Cubs lost 11 in row, 17 of last 21 games.
— Chicago is 11-6 in its last 17 home games.
— Under is 23-12 in their last 35 games.
— scored run in first inning: 25-86
— record in first 5 innings: 37-37-12

Colorado (37-49) @ Arizona (24-62)
— Senzatela is 0-0, 4.50 in his last three starts.
— Rockies are 5-11 in his starts.
— under 8-7-1
— allowed run in first inning: 4-16
— record in first 5 innings: 4-9-3
— He is 1-1, 4.34 in three starts vs Arizona this year.

— Colorado is 12-8 in its last 20 games.
— Rockies are 31-17 at home, 6-32 on road.
— under 8-0 last eight games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-86
— record in first 5 innings: 33-40-13

— bullpen game

— Arizona lost 47 of its last 55 games.
— Arizona is 3-11 in its last 14 home games.
— under 7-3 last ten home games
— scored run in first inning: 15-86
— record in first 5 innings: 28-52-6

St Louis (43-44) @ San Francisco (52-32)
— Oviedo is 0-1, 5.06 in his last four starts.
— Cardinals are 3-6 in his starts.
— under 3-1-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 3-9
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3-4
— He hasn’t pitched against San Francisco.

— Cardinals won seven of their last ten games.
— St Louis is 4-12 in its last 16 road games.
— Under is 14-7-2 in their last 23 games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-86
— record in first 5 innings: 34-35-17

— Wood is 2-0, 5.84 in his last five starts.
— Giants are 9-5 in his starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 2-14
— record in first 5 innings: 7-4-3
— He is 0-1, 4.96 in 4 games (3 starts) vs St Louis.

— Giants are 3-6 in their last nine games.
— Giants are 11-5 in last 16 home games.
— Over is 8-3 in their last 11 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 23-84
— record in first 5 innings: 45-27-12

Washington (41-43) @ San Diego (51-37)
— Corbin is 0-2, 7.59 in his last two starts.
— Washington is 8-8 in his starts.
— under 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 8-16
— record in first 5 innings: 6-7-3
— He is 6-8, 4.30 in 20 games (15 starts) vs San Diego.

— Washington lost five of its last six games.
— Nationals are 6-3 in last nine road games.
— over 5-2 last seven road games
— scored run in first inning: 28-84
— record in first 5 innings: 34-31-19

— Paddack is 2-2, 5.87 in his last six starts.
— Padres are 9-6 in his starts.
— over 7-3 last ten
— allowed run in first inning: 2-15
— record in first 5 innings: 6-8-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Washington.

— Padres won 13 of their last 18 games.
— San Diego is 10-2 in its last 12 home games.
— over 14 of last 20 games
— scored run in first inning: 27-88
— record in first 5 innings: 35-38-15

AL games
Cleveland (42-40) @ Tampa Bay (49-36)
— Mejia is 0-3, 6.93 in six starts.
— Indians are 3-3 in his starts.
— under 3-3
— allowed run in first inning: 3-6
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Tampa Bay.

— Hentges allowed 12 runs in six IP, in his last two starts.
— Indians are 4-3 in his starts.
— over 4-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-7
— record in first 5 innings: 1-5-1
— He gave 4 runs in 2.1 IP, in a start vs Tampa Bay.

— Cleveland lost nine of its last ten games.
— Indians are 3-7 in last ten road games.
— over 31-16-1 last 48 games
— scores run in first inning: 29-82
— record in first 5 innings: 29-39-14

— Wacha is 0-1, 4.11 in his last five starts.
— Rays are 6-3 in his starts.
— over 4-3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-9
— record in first 5 innings: 3-3-3
— He allowed a run in 5 IP, in one start vs Cleveland.

— Nightcap is a bullpen game.

— Tampa Bay lost five of its last seven games.
— Rays are 8-2 in last ten home games.
— over is 6-2-1 in last nine home games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-85
— record in first 5 innings: 32-31-22

Toronto (43-40) @ Baltimore (28-57)
— Ryu is 2-0, 3.66 in his last three starts
— Toronto is 9-6 in his starts.
— over 6-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 5-15
— record in first 5 innings: 8-6-1
— He is 3-0, 3.13 in five starts vs Baltimore.

— Blue Jays won 10 of their last 15 games.
— Toronto won four of its last five road games.
— under 4-3 last seven road games
— scored run in first inning: 27-83
— record in first 5 innings: 39-33-11

— Harvey is 0-3, 9.58 in his last five starts
— Orioles are 7-10 in his starts.
— over 8-2 last 10
— allowed run in first inning: 6-17
— record in first 5 innings: 8-8-1
— He is 0-1, 6.30 in two starts vs Toronto this year.

— Orioles are 4-3 in their last seven games.
— Baltimore is 15-31 on the road, 13-26 at home.
— over is 32-16-1 in their last 49 games.
— scored run in first inning: 28-85
— record in first 5 innings: 26-44-15

White Sox (50-35) @ Minnesota (35-49)
— Lynn is 1-1, 4.85 in his last three starts
— Chicago is 8-7 in his starts.
— under 8-5-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-15
— record in first 5 innings: 10-2-3
— He is 1-0, 2.45 in two starts vs Minnesota this year.

— Chicago is 7-10 in its last 17 games.
— White Sox are 3-8 in last 11 road games.
— over 11-4 last 15 road games.
— scored run in first inning: 25-84
— record in first 5 innings: 46-23-16

— Pineda is 0-2, 7.94 in his last three starts.
— Twins are 4-7 in his starts.
— over 3-0 last three
— allowed run in first inning: 4-11
— record in first 5 innings: 4-5-2
— He is 5-4, 3.38 in ten starts vs Chicago.

— Minnesota lost six of its last eight games.
— Twins are 6-8 in last 14 home games.
— over 17-6-1 last 24 home games
— scores run in first inning: 32-84
— record in first 5 innings: 27-39-18

Detroit (39-47) @ Texas (34-52)
— Mize is 2-2, 4.01 in his last six starts.
— Tigers are 9-7 in his starts.
— under 13-3
— allowed run in first inning: 4-16
— record in first 5 innings: 7-6-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Texas.

— Detroit is 10-8 its last 18 games.
— Detroit is 4-2 in its last six road games.
— over 19-7 last 26 games
— scored run in first inning: 17-87
— record in first 5 innings: 3-6-1 last ten on road.

— Gibson is 3-0, 1.53 in his last six starts.
— Texas is 10-6 in his starts.
— over 5-1-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 4-16
— record in first 5 innings: 9-4-3
— He is 10-9, 5.43 in 22 starts vs Detroit.

— Texas is 8-5 in its last 13 games.
— Texas is 6-3 in its last nine home games.
— over 15-7-2 last 24 games.
— scored run in first inning: 18-86
— record in first 5 innings: 31-43-12

Oakland (49-37) @ Houston (52-33)
— Manaea is 0-3, 3.86 in his last three starts.
— A’s are 11-6 in his starts.
— under 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 5-17
— record in first 5 innings: 8-5-4
— He is 0-1, 4.86 in three starts vs Houston this year.

— A’s lost 11 of their last 16 games.
— Oakland is 3-7 in its last ten road games.
— Under is 7-5 in their last 12 games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-87
— record in first 5 innings: 37-33-17

— Garcia is 1-2, 4.64 in his last four starts.
— Astros are 7-2 in his last nine starts.
— under 6-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 4-16
— record in first 5 innings: 8-4-3
— He is 1-0, 1.80 in two starts vs Oakland.

— Astros won their last five games.
— Astros are 11-4 in their last 15 home games.
— over 13-8-1 last 22 games
— scored run in first inning: 31-86
— record in first 5 innings: 46-26-14

Boston (54-33) @ Angels (43-42)
— Rodriguez is 1-0, 1.50 in his last two starts.
— Red Sox won his last six starts.
— over 7-1 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 4-16
— record in first 5 innings: 8-6-2
— He is 1-1, 10.57 in two starts vs Anaheim.

— Boston is 17-8 in its last 25 games.
— Red Sox are 11-6 in their last 17 road games.
— under 5-1 last six road games
— scored run in first inning: 31-87
— record in first 5 innings: 41-32-14

— Heaney is 0-3, 9.64 in his last three starts.
— Angels are 5-9 in his starts.
— over 12-2
— allowed run in first inning: 5-14
— record in first 5 innings: 7-6-1
— He is 1-1, 6.16 in four starts vs Boston.

— Halos are 7-7 in last 14 games.
— Angels are 4-4 in last eight home games.
— over 20-8 last 28 games
— scored run in first inning: 27-86
— record in first 5 innings: 37-38-11

Bronx (43-41) @ Seattle (45-41)
— German is 0-3, 6.82 in his last seven starts.
— New York is 8-7 in his starts.
— over 4-2 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 9-15
— record in first 5 innings: 5-6-4
— He gave up 2 runs in 7 IP, in his one start vs Seattle.

— New York lost seven of its last ten games.
— New York is 4-6 in its last ten road games.
— over 17-8-1 last 26 games
— scored run in first inning: 23-84
— record in first 5 innings: 34-34-16

— Kikuchi is 3-0, 1.01 in his last four starts.
— Mariners are 8-7 in his starts.
— under 7-4 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 10-4-1
— He is 1-1, 4.63 in two starts vs New York.

— Seattle won 14 of its last 19 games.
— Seattle is 9-4 in its last 13 home games.
— under 5-4 last nine home games
— scored run in first inning: 25-86
— record in first 5 innings: 40-39-7

Interleague games
Cincinnati (44-41) @ Kansas City (36-49)
— Gray is 1-1, 2.41 in his last four starts.
— Reds are 5-6 in his starts.
— under 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 1-11
— record in first 5 innings: 2-7-2
— He is 3-2, 2.06 in six starts vs Kansas City.

— Cincinnati won five of its last six games.
— Reds are 2-6 in last eight road games.
— over 6-2 last eight road games
— scored run in first inning: 23-85
— record in first 5 innings: 33-37-15

— Singer is 0-1, 5.49 in his last five starts.
— Royals are 6-11 in his starts.
— over 9-4 last 13
— allowed run in first inning: 4-17
— record in first 5 innings: 6-9-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Cincinnati.

— Royals lost 22 of their last 29 games.
— Royals are 5-8 in their last 13 home games.
— over 13-8 last 21 home games.
— scores run in first inning: 17-85
— record in first 5 innings: 30-43-12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2021, 06:27 AM

Jeff Siegel's Primed and Ready List (July 7, 2021)

July 7, 2021
Updated every Wednesday, the Primed and Ready List identifies five horses (listed alphabetically) that have recorded an outstanding workout within the past seven days and appear ready for a top performance. Workouts originate from Southern California (Santa Anita), New York (Belmont Park) and Palm Meadows (South Florida) and can be viewed by clicking the link included in the description or at xbtv. It is suggested that stable mail is utilized to alert when and where each horse is entered to race.
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CURIOUS INJI - (J. Mullins) July 4, 2021, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h

Under wraps every step of the way in solo training track drill, final half mile in :24.1 and :48.4, plenty left late. Unplaced in three career starts, most recently in a maiden claiming miler (stumbled badly at the start), but the daughter of Misremembered surely appears capable of better and seems likely to surface in a winnable spot early in the Del Mar season.
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HIGHESTDISTINCTION - (T. Proctor) - July 4, 2021, Palm Meadows, 6f, 1:13.2b

Sharp, eager, and strong through the lane in solo six furlong main track drill while finishing with plenty left, final quarter mile in :24 and small change, mostly on his own. Lightly raced, won his last pair (most recently at Delaware Park) on dirt with rising speed figures but has a pedigree that suggests he’ll handle grass as well. Remains on the upgrade.
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LADY MYSTIFY - (P. Eurton) July 4, 2021, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h

Never asked in sharp five furlong main track drill, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :35.3, plenty left late. Had nothing behind her when graduating by 18 lengths last time out and will get tested on the raise, but the daughter of Bernardini seems to be made of the stuff. Ready to step forward again.
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SEMPER FIDELIS - (S. Joseph, Jr.) July 3, 2021, Palm Meadows, 4f, :47.1h

Barn tends to let them roll in the a.m., but this lightly-raced son of Fast Anna was under cruise control throughout in sharp half mile main track drill, final three furlongs in :35 flat. Been away since December but appears to be returning better than he left and should be hard to beat vs. older maiden special weight foes.
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WIT - (T. Pletcher) July 4, 2021, Belmont Park, 5f, 1:01.2b TT

In company inside Lady Valentine (same time) in training track drill, breaking off a length in front and then finishing a similar margin ahead at the wire, some restraint early and then coasting through the lane (galloped out well, too) while clearly best. Practical Joke juvenile won at first asking impressively and seems likely to be seen in stakes company at Saratoga early in the season.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2021, 06:29 AM

AI Picks: Indiana Derby | July 7, 2021

July 6, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Wednesday night’s Grade 3 Indiana Derby tops the season’s biggest card at Indiana Grand in Race 12 of 12. To help you tackle the main event, the 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence provides its look at the Indiana Derby field. The program gets underway at 2:25 pm ET with undercard stakes featuring the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks.

Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

We’ve included the track’s morning line odds with each entrant.

Indiana Grand // Grade 3 $300,000 Indiana Derby // Race 12 // 8:25 PM ET
#1 Fulsome (4-5) // 28%W // 47%P // 67%S
#2 WW Crazy (30-1) // 17%W // 39%P // 55%S
#3 Starrininmydreams (6-1) // 13%W // 30%P // 48%S
#7 Mr. Wireless (5-2) // 13%W // 29%P // 44%S
#6 Full Charge (12-1) // 13%W // 23%P // 33%S
#5 Sermononthemount (10-1) // 8%W // 19%P // 31%S
#4 Convention (15-1) // 6%W // 14%P // 21%S

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2021, 06:30 AM

Monday Myths: Do Barns Really Step up for Del Mar?

July 6, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Del Mar is a meet that California’s top trainers aim for and fire their best shots.

Background:

The summer showcase meet at Del Mar is considered boutique for its relatively short length and high quality. For those reasons, there’s a narrative that everyone wants to find the winner’s circle at Del Mar. But are there trainers who actually find more success behind those apparent desires?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database for the past 5 years (July 1, 2016-present) at Del Mar and Santa Anita, California’s principal race meetings, to compare. I listed out the top active trainers by victories and also included their win percentages. I wanted to see if there was a shuffle or successful emphasis when it comes to Del Mar’s summer meet.

//

Leading Trainers at Santa Anita

1. Peter Miller 25%
2. Richard Baltas 18%
3. Phil D’Amato 19%
4. Doug O’Neill 13%
5. Bob Baffert 26%
6. Mark Glatt 17%

//

Leading Trainers at Del Mar (both summer and autumn meets)

1. Peter Miller 22%
2. Phil D’Amato 17%
3. Richard Baltas 18%
4. Doug O’Neill 12%
5. Bob Baffert 22%
6. Mark Glatt 17%

//

Leading Trainers at Del Mar (summer only)

1. Peter Miller 20%
3. Richard Baltas 18%
3. Phil D’Amato 18%
4. Doug O’Neill 13%
5. Bob Baffert 25%
6. John Sadler 18%
(7. Mark Glatt 17%)

Overall Findings:

The top 6 trainers in all 3 situations are the same outfits (except one), regardless of race meeting in California. And, they’re almost in identical order except for the 2-3 spots changing between Richard Baltas and Phil D’Amato, and the No. 6 spot between John Sadler and Mark Glatt. As for Del Mar’s summer-only boutique meeting, the order of dominance remains the same; plus, the win percentages for the top barns are nearly identical across the board as well, except for leading trainer Peter Miller, whose percentage actually drops during Del Mar summer, but he succeeds with volume and quality in tandem.

Bottom line:

It’s a commonsense narrative to say everyone wants to win at Del Mar, but the numbers absolutely crush any thought that the big barns are geared up any differently for this meeting than they are year ‘round. Obviously, the proliferation of 2-year-old racing this time of year can have an impact on wins and percentages for barns that succeed with those types of horses and situations. But, overall, you’ll see Doug O’Neill around 13% this summer, Richard Baltas and Phil D’Amato around 18% and Bob Baffert amidst his usual flirtation with 25% if his barn continues to perform this summer post-Medina Spirit as well as it has in the past.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, there are some smaller barns that have had some Del Mar success with more limited starts. Tom Proctor has 31% wins (38% on turf) during the boutique the past 5 years. The aforementioned John Sadler barn has a Del Mar summer ROI of $1.22 for every $1 bet, clearly among the ‘big’ barns the most to move up this time of year historically.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2021, 06:31 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Parx Racing - Race #4

#8 On Temple High	That was an encouraging first effort for the new team, and he proved he could handle the local footing there as well. He draws best of the speed here and might offer a fair price today.
#1 Sophos	He gets Lasix while dropping in this local debut, but I wouldn't want to take too short a price here given his lack of early interest in those first two tries.
#5 Don't Recall	He's a pretty reliable type who will be trying this level for the first time, but he has had a dozen chances and probably doesn't offer fair value on the drop.
Race Summary	On Temple High will have to carry his speed another furlong today, but maybe he can control some more moderate splits at this longer trip.

Parx Racing - Race #7

#5 Fran's Worrier	He'll make his turf debut here, but he figures in line for a great trip if he handles the new footing. He has some pace and a mild ability to rate, and the price should be right to see if he likes the new surface.
#6 American Talent	His turf tries have been solid, landing a couple of wins from four tries, and he's likely going to land a really nice spying trip this afternoon.
#3 Breithorn	He owns some pace and continues to cut back, and he might get towed into solid splits today. Off the pace at a price today?
Race Summary	Fran's Worrier will have to prove he can handle turf, but his form keeps him in the mix if he likes it. Always like it when a runner is protected off the claim.

Parx Racing - Race #9

#7 Bird King	He's probably in here in hopes it comes off the lawn, and he would have a right to be tough if that were the case. His form makes him intriguing on either footing.
#6 Ballagh Rocks	He and the rail runner have some pretty solid turf class, but this guy should offer a much better price with some room to bounce back off a flat run last out.
#11 Shane's Jewel	Like the top choice, he's probably in search of the main track, but he's bringing a pattern that suggests this might be his 'off' race -- that may still be good enough here.
Race Summary	Bird King should be a handful if this one comes over to the main, but his form makes him intriguing enough if this stays on the grass. He has good midpack pace to stay in touch early with this bunch.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2021, 06:32 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

The Meadows - Race #5

#2 MIKE THE TRADER	Right set-up, right price to try and end long winless drought.
#5 SARAH GATOR	First or second in 10 of 19 starts this year is magnified in this field.
#6 CASEY T	Mare's bid for three wins in a row ended from post 9, seeks 27th victory.
Race Summary	Mike The Trader rallied from far back to finish second at 20-1 and 35-1 in June. He draws inside, should get ample pace flow and could spring a mild upset. Play a 2-5-6 exacta box.

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #7

#4 ROCKS NOBLE ARTIST	Overpowered the favorite, steps up, worth the price.
#6 BLU CREW	Led until late at odds-on, Tetrick's choice over top one.
#3 BILLS FELLA	Solid numbers at Harrington but only 1-22 this year.
Race Summary	Rocks Noble Artist was anxious in the pocket, pulled out nearing the lane and drew away from the even-money favorite. He takes a big jump up in class but at least offers good betting value. Play a 3-4-6 exacta box.

Northfield Park - Race #4

#6 M G KID	Duplicate of race two back makes him tough on the class drop.
#1 BAIT A HOOK	Third at 42-1 at this level, draws rail, winless this year.
#5 LATTISIMUS HANOVER	Can use his speed well, but has been coming up short in stretch.
Race Summary	M G Kid can be excused for a troubled trip from the second tier last week, but his prior start against better was solid. He chased the winning favorite through a :55 back half and finished third. Play 6-1 and 6-5 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2021, 06:33 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #4

#1 Timeless Rose	Has shown a solid late in the past here and needed his last one off a six-month layoff; expect a much-improved effort.
#4 Breeze Rider	Was second at this level last out and can be a strong player from the start.
#6 Purrfectly Claire	Has been in some outstanding sprints and makes her first turf attempt; classy filly.
Race Summary	Timeless Rose can get back to late running here as she'll be stalking a good pace; should be sharp in her second off the layoff.

Indiana Grand - Race #6

#6 Exulting	Romped in three straight starter allowances, and while this is a significant step up, it's difficult to come up with a match for his form.
#1 Shared Sense	Oklahoma Derby and Indiana Derby winner makes his first of the year and has some decent works to his credit.
#5 Pirate's Punch	Has shown speed against excellent company and will be tough if he gets his way on the front end.
Race Summary	Exulting takes on the toughs today after showing his superiority against lesser competition but looks good enough to take the step.

Indiana Grand - Race #12

#7 Mr. Wireless	Was a closing second in the Texas Derby at Lone Star in his latest after going two for two at Oaklawn; he's clearly just getting started at this level and would not be a major surprise.
#1 Fulsome	Was impressive in wins in the Matt Winn and Oaklawn in his last two and will be short on the board; probably has his best competition in this one.
#6 Full Charge	Broke his maiden going long at Churchill last out and can make up some serious ground in this one.
Race Summary	Mr. Wireless is learning as he goes along and already shown he fits at this level.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2021, 10:54 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown

Thistledown - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.10 Superfecta
Allowance • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $33,300 • Post: 1:20P
FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS.A RACE SINCE MAY 7 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * SPIN DOCTOR: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. KOLE MAN CAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PRADO COLORS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourt h start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	SPIN DOCTOR	10/1	3/1
2	KOLE MAN CAN	15/1	6/1
3	PRADO COLORS	12/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	MIDNIGHT WARSHIP	9	9/2	Front-runner	59	55	80.4	46.6	38.1
6	DOCSLUCKYCAT	6	5/1	Front-runner	67	64	75.6	50.6	37.6
3	PRADO COLORS	3	12/1	Front-runner	73	59	73.2	54.0	45.0
5	STRIKE ONE	5	7/2	Front-runner	58	55	37.5	52.9	43.9
1	LUCKY STREAK	1	3/1	Stalker	63	57	56.2	52.6	42.1
2	KOLE MAN CAN	2	15/1	Stalker	64	67	46.8	60.4	54.9
7	SPIN DOCTOR	7	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	81	71	48.2	67.8	63.8
4	YOU'RE MY BOY BLUE	4	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	45	46	50.6	45.4	27.9
8	TRAITOR AMONGST US	8	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	52	49.2	52.8	41.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2021, 10:55 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park

Belterra Park - Race 5	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $11,800 • Post: 2:31P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED)(PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $5,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS). (IF TRANSFERRED TO THE MAIN TRACK, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT ONE MILE AND 70 YARDS.).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. CHA VEZ is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CHA VEZ: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GRAY HOPE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SEA ADMIRAL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). KITCHI: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
1	CHA VEZ	4/1	9/2
7	GRAY HOPE	6/1	6/1
5	SEA ADMIRAL	9/2	8/1
8	KITCHI	20/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	SEA ADMIRAL	5	9/2	Front-runner	92	83	97.8	78.2	70.2
8	KITCHI	8	20/1	Front-runner	89	93	87.6	74.0	65.5
1	CHA VEZ	1	4/1	Stalker	92	88	70.0	81.4	78.9
3	AMANI'S KITTEN	3	6/1	Trailer	83	75	80.7	80.7	70.2
4	YEAHIKNOW	4	5/2	Trailer	84	81	75.8	73.0	65.0
7	GRAY HOPE	7	6/1	Trailer	89	84	65.8	80.2	77.2
2	ZACAPA RUN	2	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	80	75	39.3	64.9	52.9
6	KNIGHT ERRANT	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	76	32.7	37.5	21.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2021, 10:56 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sam Houston

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Allowance - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 83

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 125 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 SENATOR VOLCUM 5/1
# 5 MR RITE NOW 10/1
# 1 HARD EVIDENZ 15/1

SENATOR VOLCUM looks to be a quite good contender. Keeton has him trained admirably to break quickly out of the gate. His 70 average has this gelding with among the best Equibase speed figs for this race. With a nice Equibase class rating average of 85, has one of the best class advantages in this group. MR RITE NOW - One of the strongest win percentages between this jockey and trainer make this gelding dangerous. Have to wager on this money-making jock and trainer twosome. HARD EVIDENZ - Has been running in the most competitive company of the group lately. This filly has a very good winning percentage in short races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2021, 10:57 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Evangeline Downs - Race #4 - Post: 7:11pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 44

Rating:

#3 LADY SPEED BREEZE (ML=5/2)

LADY SPEED BREEZE - I like the fact that this first time starter's recent works have been over this track. I always like to see a thoroughbred getting Lasix for the first time. Cordero adds it on this one today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 SILVER MAID (ML=8/5), #4 DARING DARIAN (ML=4/1), #5 TOSHITA FOREVER (ML=6/1),

SILVER MAID - This steed hasn't been on the track since June 9th. Not even any drills. Hasn't hit the board in any short distance affairs lately. Doubtful to see her doing it today either. Earned a mediocre speed figure last out in a $5,000 Maiden Claiming race on Jun 9th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure. DARING DARIAN - This racer will probably need at least one more start after the lackluster showing following the long vacation. Just cannot wager on this racer. Didn't show me anything last out or on Mar 13th. TOSHITA FOREVER - Tough to put your dough on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as frequently as this one does. 6/1 odds isn't enough for this thoroughbred when looking at the most recent showings.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #3 LADY SPEED BREEZE on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2021, 10:59 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ajax Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Stakes - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $20320 Class Rating: 84

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, QROOI DISTANCE SERIES 1 S. - FOR NOMINATED THREE YEAR OLDS & UPWARD. HIGHEST MONEY EARNERS PREFERRED. FOR FURTHER STAKES RACE DETAILS AND PAYOUT PERCENTAGES, SEE QROOI STAKES BOOK.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 SPY FOR THE SENATE 3/1
# 4 CHICKSDIGMYMONEYBAGS 9/2
# 6 EYE AM THE EAGLE 5/1

I've got to go with SPY FOR THE SENATE. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 81 - of his last effort. With a strong 78 average Equibase Speed Fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this horse. CHICKSDIGMYMONEYBAGS - The average Equibase class figure alone makes this horse a solid choice. Overall the speed figures of this equine look decent in this affair. EYE AM THE EAGLE - Has been running soundly lately and should be close to the front end early on. With a very good 78 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2021, 10:59 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Arizona Downs - Race #7 - Post: 5:18pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#2 AWESOME HEIGHTS (ML=12/1)
#4 PARLEY STREET (ML=4/1)

AWESOME HEIGHTS - Be loyal to this horse. No other viable pace gives this horse a strong chance at the winner's circle. Ranked numero uno in earnings per start. Another sign that this horse has the class to win. PARLEY STREET - Looking at today's class rating, this pony is encountering an easier bunch than last time out at Arizona Downs. Last two speed figures (79, 82) were powerful. Anything close to that today and this one could be heading straight to the winner's circle. Recent Equibase speed figures show strong pattern of improvement. A repeat of that latest effort on June 16th where he registered a rating of 82 looks strong enough to prove victorious in this clash.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SON OF ELEANOR (ML=6/5), #7 KING LEBRON (ML=5/1), #9 DIMERA (ML=6/1),

SON OF ELEANOR - This entrant hasn't been on the track since June 2nd. Not even any drills. Just can't wager on this horse. Didn't show me anything positive in the last race or on April 22nd. KING LEBRON - That was just not a very good showing in the last event. DIMERA - On a downward moving cycle. Speed figures keep deteriorating.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - AWESOME HEIGHTS - Class fig today of 77. Taking a big decrease in the level of competition and should respond well to an easier group. Worth a prime bet.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 AWESOME HEIGHTS is the play if we get odds of 8/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2021, 06:50 PM

MLB
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Wednesday, July 7

Wednesday 7/7/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 7/7/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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