Friday 4/30/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 06:19 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 4/30/21

April 30, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Warrens Candy Man; 3-Atomic Drop; 6-Rocks and Salt

Forecast: State-bred maidens meet over nine furlongs on grass in the Friday opener with at least half the field having a legitimate look. Atomic Drops shows the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern for a barn that has good stats with this angle, and in a race without much pace he could find himself as the controlling speed. The P. D’Amato-trained gelding has the pedigree to handle the trip and a gets a considerable break in the weights with the switch to bug girl J. Pyfer. Based on his sprint speed figures the son of Mucho Macho Man is a strong fit. Warrens Candy Man is reequipped with blinkers, but we doubt the change will have much effect on his form. The son of Clubhouse Ride projects to enjoy a good ground-saving trip and his one-paced grinding style should be more effective at this longer trip. Rocks and Salt has trained well for his comeback and may be a bit better type this time around. He will race without blinkers for the first time, so we will toss him in on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Big Treat; 5-Drizella

Forecast: Big Treat has trained like a nice filly and appears fit and ready to win the first baby race of the season. The R. Hanson-trained daughter of Mr. Big has displayed sharp speed but also has shown the ability to finish, so with good racing luck we are expecting her to perform to expectations. Drizella also has shown good zip in her a.m. preps and hails from a barn that does very well with 2-year-olds. This daughter of the first crop stallion Stanford breezed smartly at the OBS March Sale (10 seconds flat) and her recent gate work (:47.1hg) on April 19 was good although second best with a stable mate. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we will have extra tickets keying Big Treat on top.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-Paynter’s Love; 5-Flag Salute; 7-Circle of Honor

Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden claiming main track miler for sophomore fillies does not offer much to work with. Circle of Honor and Paynter’s Love, two-three finishers in a similar affair earlier this month, are major players again and both are lightly-raced with room to improve. You can also toss in the class-dropping Flag Salute on your ticket as well though this will be her first start on dirt and her pedigree suggests she should be much more comfortable on grass. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-Casse Belle

Forecast: Cassie Belle has so far in her career preferred to finish second or third (eight times) than win (twice), but she appears to have found a field she should be able to handle. Always partial to the Santa Anita turf course, the daughter of Lucky Pulpit has enough tactical speed to always be within range and will have every chance to exert her superiority when the pressure is turned on. J. J. Hernandez stays aboard and knows her well, so at 2-1 on the morning line she is a win play and rolling exotic single in this starter’s allowance turf mile for fillies and mares.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Theultimatepraise; 6-Sir Flatter

Forecast: In a below par race for the level, we will take a shot with the Bay Area shipper Theultimatepraise on top. He is a first-time-blinkers play with steadily rising speed figures and a good inside post, and if sent from the bell could inherit the role as the controlling speed. You should also toss in Sir Flatter, who has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and a pedigree that suggests he will improve at this longer trip.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:47 PT Grade: B
Single: 3-Beaudacious

Forecast: Beaudacious is a six-race maiden with three runner-up performances on his resume. Today may be his day to graduate in a soft state-bred affair over nine furlongs on grass. With speed figures that are better than par for the level and with enough tactical speed to ensure a good stalking, trouble-free trip, the son of Karakontie picks up “in form” rider K. Desormeaux and should have no difficulties handling this longer trip. We will make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-She’s a Dime; 3-Midnight Jamboree

Forecast: She’s a Dime stretches out in her 18th career start and if she is ever going to be successful two-turning it will be in her first attempt. Clearly the controlling speed if she wants to be, the daughter of Eskendereya is a prior winner over the Santa Anita main track and will be tough to catch if front-running tactics are employed under bug boy A. Centeno, who knows her well. Midnight Jamboree projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip and will have every chance given the likely race flow. Nosed out vs. similar in her most recent outing when more than eight lengths clear of the others, the W. Spawr-trained mare just earned (by far) a career top speed figure and not much morel will be needed today. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:51 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Armour Plate; 4-Midnight Mystery

Forecast: Midnight Mystery did not break well and was always outrun vs. tougher foes last month but today drops for the money run following a couple of extra sharp recent workouts and should be primed for a top effort over a course he has proven he can win on. The lightly-raced gelding projects to part of the pace throughout and at this level should be able to produce a winning punch when called upon. Armour Plate is just 1-for-23 in his career but at least the win was accomplished over the local turf course. He will enjoy a ground-saving, second flight trip and with clear sailing through the lane figures to be heard from late. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we will have extra tickets keying Midnight Mystery on top.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 06:20 AM

Jeff Siegel's Oaks/Derby Day Analysis - April 30/May 1, 2021

April 30, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. This race-by-race analysis zeroes in on the Friday, April 30, 2021 13-race card on Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

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Jeff Siegel's Churchill Downs Analysis and Wagering Strategies
Friday, April 30, 2021

RACE 1: Post: 10:30 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Favorite Sin; 2-Pop a Choc

Forecast: The Oaks Day card opener is a one-turn mile affair for first-level allowance fillies and mares that finds the main contention drawn inside. Favorite Sin has run well on the lead or from a second-flight stalking position so if she breaks cleanly regular rider C. Lanerie can assess the early pace flow and formulate a strategy. Fresh from earning a career top Beyer speed figure (and one that is par for this level), the daughter of Awesome Again likely has further improvement in her, and after a six week break that features a healthy work pattern in the interim the I. Wilkes-trained filly should fire her best shot. Pop a Choc makes her third start off a layoff and seems to be rounding back to her best form. The daughter of Bernardini has numbers from last summer that are good enough to win this condition and her stalking style seems ideally suited for this trip.
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RACE 2: Post: 11:00 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Front Street; 3-Kizzy B; 6-Seaside Retreat

Forecast: Here is another one-turn mile event, this one for maiden fillies and mares. Seaside Retreat, in the frame in all four starts and making her first start since early January, has trained steadily in recent weeks for Shug (solid stats with layoff runners) and will race with blinkers for the first time. She is not particularly fast on speed figures – none of these are - but could easily be better than shown and may have a higher ceiling than most of these. We will give her a slight edge on top. Kizzy B is a nine-race maiden and therefore not one to trust, but for whatever reason she has been routing most of her career despite evidence that suggests she is more comfortable around one turn. She makes a significant jockey change to I. Ortiz, Jr. and projects to be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance. Front Street may wind up being the controlling speed, and if not policed she could get brave and take her foes a long way. She earned a number three races back at this distance that, if repeated, is good enough to win. All three should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 11:30 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Australasia; 5-Zainalarab; 7-Amalfi Princess

Forecast: Australasia is an unbeaten Louisiana-bred filly tackling open company today for the first time, so we will find out just how good she is. Based strictly on speed figures. The daughter of Sky Kingdom is talented and versatile, having won sprinting and routing and on the lead or from a stalking position. The B. Cox-trained filly catches a field without too much early heat, so we suspect she will draft into a good pace-stalking position and then take on all challengers from the quarter pole home. Zainalarab won her only start last summer at Belmont Park in good style but then was stopped on. She returns for C. Brown (superb stats with layoff runners) with a work tab that should have her fit enough, so the daughter of War Front – a $1 million yearling purchase – is the likely choice and the one to beat. Amalfi Princess ran well to be third in the Beaumont S.-G3 at Keeneland earlier this month while earning a career top speed figure, and with another forward move today should at least hit the board and maybe do better than just that. She is a perfect one-for-one over the Churchill Downs main track and most likely will settle just behind the leaders and then have dead aim when it counts. In a tough, competitive race for the level, these are the three we will be using in our rolling exotics with a slight edge on top to Australasia.
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RACE 4: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-American West; 3-Illiogami; 10-Another Woman

Forecast: American West won her debut last fall, so we know she can fire fresh, and then in her second start she finished a good but distant second to the high-quality filly Malathaat in the Tempted Stakes before being given the remainder of the year off. She makes her 3-year-old debut in this allowance optional claimer for C. Brown (a spectacular 29% with layoffs) while adding Lasix and drawing nicely inside in this middle distance main track affair for 3-year-old fillies. Most of her sire’s get improve with age and distance, so we suspect this $925,000 yearling purchase by Curlin will do just that. Illiogami earned a strong speed figure – tops in this field – when breaking her maiden from off the pace over this trip at Keeneland last time out and if she can build on that effort today she will be the one to fear most. Another Woman is drawn a bit farther outside in post position 10 than we would prefer, but after breaking her maiden in her second career start at Gulfstream Park over seven furlongs last month she stretches out and adds blinkers while picking up J. Rosario. The daughter of Broken Vow is a strong fit based on her sprint figures so if she can negotiate a decent trip the W. Mott-trained filly certainly could be capable of winning on the one-level raise.
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RACE 5: Post: 12:43 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Temple; 5-Ramsey Solution; 10-Spooky Channel

Forecast: Temple has faced graded stakes competition in each of his last three starts and today tries easier company with a class drop to the third level allowance ranks. He is also shortening to a middle distance after a series off marathon events, and we suspect this turn back in trip (along with class drop) will bring out his best. Drawn comfortably inside and switching to J. Rosario, the M. Maker-trained colt will have every chance to regain his winning form. Ramsey Solution, unbeaten in two prior starts over the sand-based Churchill Downs grass course, does not necessarily need the lead to win but is especially difficult to beat when he is able to make the running. Successful in five of nine career starts, the son of Real Solution is eligible for this race only because he was entered for the $80,000 tag, so with recent numbers that are both fast and consistent the W. Ward-trained gelding is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Spooky Channel also is eligible due to his entry for the listed claiming price and always has been thoroughly genuine and consistent in various stakes races. He has been primarily a marathoner but can act at this shorter nine furlong trip, and it must be noted that he was victorious in his only prior outing over the local turf course in a middle distance affair that produced a career top speed figure. We will use all three in our rolling exotics with a slight preference to Temple, but in a highly-contentious affair you may find the need to spread a little deeper.
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RACE 6: Post: 1:26 ET Grade: X
Single: 6-Maxfield

Forecast: Maxfield had his five-race unbeaten winning streak snapped when he finished third without mishap at even money in the Santa Anita Handicap-G1 in early March, but he did equal his career top Beyer speed figure when going down by two lengths to Idol, so we must conclude that he simply got outrun. This year’s edition of the Alysheba S.-G2 is a considerably easier assignment over a main track we know he likes (he is perfect in two starts), and the switch back to his original regular jockey J. Ortiz, Jr. won hurt, either. There will be no value to be found at or near his morning line of 4/5, so our strategy is to use him a short-priced rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 7: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: X
Single: 6-Aunt Pearl

Forecast: Aunt Pearl makes her sophomore debut in her first outing since concluding her unbeaten 2-year-old season with a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1 at Keeneland last November. Victorious in all three of her starts in gate-to-wire fashion, the daughter of Lope de Vegas appears to have trained well enough to be fit and ready for a barn that excels with comebackers (25%), and with a projected race flow that should allow her to easily gain her preferred trip the Irish-bred filly will be an extremely short price to pick up where she left off. She is another odds-on favorite that probably will win but will be too short to play, so we will use her as rolling exotic single and then simply enjoy the show.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Envoutante; 2-Shedaresthedevil; 3-Dunbar Road

Forecast: We are hoping for a mild upset in the 2021 edition of the La Troienne S.-G1, an outstanding middle distance main track event for top class fillies and mares. Envoutante, fourth in the Azeri S.-G2 at Oaklawn Park last time out but beaten less than three lengths, is perfect in two prior outings at Churchill Downs, including a six-length romp in the Fall City S.-G2 last fall that earned a career top Beyer figure (one that equals the best produced by race-favorite Shedaresthedevil). She is daughter of Uncle Mo listed at 6-1 on the morning line, and from the rail she is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving, pace-stalking trip. If she is ever going to be good enough to win a race of this quality, today will be the day. Shedaresthedevil, winner of last year’s Kentucky Oaks and a perfect three-for-three over the Churchill Downs main track, returned off a five month layoff and held off Letruska to win the Azeri S.-G2 at Oaklawn Park last month, and then saw the form franked when Letruska returned to beat Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver in the Apple Blossom S.-G1 earlier this month. Clearly, she is the one to beat. Though subjected to hard, taxing effort in the Azeri, the daughter of Daredevil has been given ample time to recover (more than six weeks) and her recent workouts indicate she spot on for another big effort. Dunbar Road, a closing third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff G1 when last seen last fall, has a history of firing fresh and is a prior stakes winner over this track and distance in her only previous appearance. You have to use her somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:04 ET Grade: B+
Use: 8-Kalypso; 10-Dayoutoftheoffice; 12-Caramel Swirl

Forecast: Dayoutoftheoffice won her first three starts last year as a potential champion but could not quite see out the trip when weakening late to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies-G1 in her first try around two-turns. She returns sprinting – this is what she wants to do – and if ready seems likely to outclass this field in an excellent renewal of the Eight Bells S.-G2 for sophomore fillies. The recent workouts – including a :58 flat five furlong drill at Keeneland last Friday - would appear to indicate that the daughter of Into Mischief has retained all of her speed and is ready to use it. The B. Baffert California shipper Kalypso is not nearly as fast on pure numbers as the favorite but like Dayoutoftheoffice is back sprinting where she belongs and was a graded stakes winner this winter at Santa Anita at this exact seven furlong distance. We are expecting the daughter of Brody’s Cause to run a career top today, but it remains to be seen if that will be good enough. Caramel Swirl is listed at 12-1 on the morning line and at that price is worth tossing in as saver or a backup in rolling exotic play. A big figure maiden winner at Keeneland earlier this month over seven furlongs, the W. Mott-trained daughter of Union Rags will have clear sailing outside and could be dangerous if held up early and allowed to run late. It has taken some good fillies to beat her and perhaps she is ready to finally beat a few good ones herself.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:55 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Fiya; 9-Diamond Oops; 10-Sombeyay

Forecast: Fiya is a perfect five-for-five sprinting on grass during his brief but brilliant career and the Maryland-bred gelding can pick up where he left off in December when winning a Claiming Crown turf dash in his typical gate-to-wire fashion. This is his toughest assignment to date – for the first time he will be facing non-restricted company – but based purely on speed figures the son of Friesan Fire is quick enough to make the lead and keep on going. His recent work tab should have him plenty fit enough. Sombeyay is a California shipper trained by P. Miller – is there anybody more skilled than this trainer with sprinters, turf or dirt? – and seems to represent the most dangerous of the stalkers/closers contingent. The son of Into Mischief missed by a neck to Gregorian Chant in the San Simeon S.-G3 last time out and then saw that one come back to win again over the weekend in a good overnight affair. Diamond Oops won this race when it was staged last September, doing so with a furious late kick over a course with give in the ground that may be quite like what he will encounter in this race. Reunited with “win rider” F. Geroux, the P. Biancone-trained gelding often rises to the occasion when the stakes are high, so it would not be surprising to see the son of Lookin At Lucky make some serious noise at 5-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:51 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Travel Column; 10-Malathaat; 12-Search Results

Forecast: Travel Column, victorious in the Fair Grounds Oaks in visually pleasing style last month, has the type of tactical speed that usually ensures a trouble-free, pace-stalking trip in this year’s renewal of the Kentucky Oaks-G1. The B. Cox-trained daughter of Frosted is fast on numbers and has the pedigree to excel at today’s nine furlong trip, plus she is unbeaten in two starts over the Churchill Downs main track, including a win last fall in the Golden Rod S.-G2. We will give her a very slight edge on top. Malathaat probably was not completely cranked up when winning the recent Ashland S.-G1 in her first start since December but with that effort to tighten her up the daughter of Curlin should be primed and ready for a career top performance. She does not own an exceptional turn of foot but can grind away forever and as such should continue to develop as the distances increase. She is back with Johnny V., who won the Demoiselle S.-G2 on her at this nine furlong distance last December for trainer T. Pletcher. Search Results has not yet beaten anything close to the level of either Travel Column or Malathaat so far in her perfect three race career but did run two fifths of a second faster at the same distance on the same day as the colts did in the Wood Memorial S.-G2, so that alone makes her dangerous. The C. Brown-trained filly projects to be in a good pace-stalking position outside and have her chance to show she belongs with the big girls in the division.
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RACE 12: Post: 6:25 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Mintd; 8-More Than Usual; 9-Woke Up to Aces

Forecast: More Than Usual is fast on figures and good enough to win this second-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares with anything close to her highly impressive score two runs back at Fair Grounds. She wants to settle, get cover, and then produce a late kick and with that type of rider from F. Geroux the daughter of More Than Ready should be along in plenty of time. Mintd, away since July, returns for a stable that boasts superior stats with comebackers and this Irish-bred filly won her U.S. debut last year in her first start in 20 months so, yes, she can fire fresh. The B. Walsh-trained mare has done some good work leading up to this event, so we suspect she is extremely live and well-meant, especially with I. Ortiz, Jr. picking up the mount. Woke Up to Aces does not have the form to worry our top two picks but she will be lone speed and, for whatever it is worth, looked quite good demolishing a lesser field over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park last month. Two recent bullet workouts since that race catch the eye, so we will toss her in on a ticket or two for protection in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 13: Post: 7:00 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Magic Quest; 10-Played Hard; 11-Callen’s Charisma

Forecast: Callen’s Charisma was five lengths clear of the rest when a willing runner-up in her debut at Gulfstream Park last month and seems sure to improve for W. Mott with that effort behind her combined with the major jockey switch to J. Rosario. The daughter of Munnings is comfortably drawn outside and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Played Hard also was second in her only prior outing and is another that has every right to produce a forward move. She earned a bit better speed figure that on our top in her race Fair Grounds and maidens making their second start from this stable almost always step forward. Magic Quest missed by a neck in her debut at Keeneland earlier this month and is yet another that should be fitter and tighter today. The daughter of Nyquist exits a productive race and seems sure to flash the type of early speed that could make her the quickest in the field. These are the three we will be using equally in our rolling exotics.

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Jeff Siegel’s Churchill Downs Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saturday, May 1, 2021

RACE 1: Post: 10:30 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Cool Bobby; 5-Soros; 6-Sounion

Forecast: The opener is a challenging one-turn mile first-level allowance event for older horses that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We will try to get by using just three. Soros, a former stakes winner at this distance but away for more than a year, returns as a first-time gelding and is protected in a sign of confidence. If the lightly-raced son of Commissioner returns with his best stuff he can act with these. The work tab looks pretty decent for new trainer M. McCarthy, whose record with layoff runners is quite good (20% with a massive ROI). Sounion, another making his first start since being gelded, has never been worse than second in three prior starts over the Churchill Downs main track, and in a race that projects to have a comfortable early pace the son of Liam’s Map should find himself favorably placed while on or near the lead. He is fast enough on speed figures to handle this assignment and is reunited with “win rider” J. Leparoux. Cool Bobby was a 10 length winner over this track and distance (albeit on a sloppy surface) last fall and could inherit the role as the controlling speed if aggressively sent from the bell. He is another with recent speed figures that make him dangerous.
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RACE 2: Post: 11:01 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Cadencia; 7-Cerulean; 10-Elle Est Forte; 11-Anthropology

Forecast: This grass grab bag for older maiden fillies and mares is another that offers several possibilities, some at very good prices. The strategy is to spread deeply and hope for a blowout payoff. First-time starter Cerulean is listed at 15-1 on the morning line but we suspect she is much better than that. A $180,000 OBS March sale purchase last year after breezing a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds, she finally makes it to the post and is bred to do her best work going long on the lawn. From a capable outfit and with L. Saez in the saddle, the daughter of Air Force Blue recorded a bullet gate drill at Keeneland (47 2/5 seconds, fastest of 101 for the distance) two weeks ago that should have her fit and ready. Anthropology, pegged at 30-1 on the morning line, has the two-sprints-and-stretch-out angle on her resume, and after a couple of runs over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park finally gets a chance to perform on the surface for which she was bred (Karakontie). On pure speed figures she is fairly competitive, so we will definitely include her. The morning line favorite at 2-1 is Cadencia, second vs. similar foes in her last three starts, two of which came as a strongly backed favorite. She lacks tactical speed and therefore may not be able to take full advantage of her inside draw, but with good racing luck and some help up front the T. Pletcher-trained filly will be heard from late. Elle Est Forte likewise has good recent from under these conditions and her speed figures are improving with every start. With another forward move today, the daughter of Flintshire will be right there.
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RACE 3: Post: 11:31 ET Grade: B+
Use: 5-Koolhaus; 7-Alejandro

Forecast: We will double this race in rolling exotic play, but the main push will be reserved for Koolhaus, a developing 3-year-old from the B. Cox barn. With two good sprints under his belt in stronger-the-par races for the level, the son of Nyquist should be much more comfortable with an extra furlong to work with today, and from a stable that hits at a remarkable 32% with stretch-out runners this 3-year-old colt projects to settle in the second flight before being turned loose from the quarter pole home. There is plenty of value to be found at or near his morning line of 9/2. Alejandro finished first in a maiden router at Fair Grounds last month and earned a good figure in doing so, but had his number taken down for causing interference, so he is back with maidens again today. He is a son of Curlin from a daughter of Rachel Alexandra, so much is expected, and this S. Asmussen-trained sophomore certainly appears headed in the right direction.
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RACE 4: Post: 12:04 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Salvator Mundi; 6-Hay Dakota; 9-Gun It

Forecast: This messy turf miler for second-level allowance older horses is another affair that offers several price chances. Gun It is listed at 10-1 on the morning line and offers a good gamble at that price. He has been winless since the fall of 2019 but has raced on grass only once in his career (a good third place finish in a similar allowance event at Kentucky Downs last September) and today picks up J. Rosario. The S. Asmussen-trained horse is solid on numbers and projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight trip. Hay Dakota, at 8-1 on the morning line, is another “must use.” A two=time winner over the local lawn, the veteran gelding does his best work from off the pace and should have plenty of pace today to set compliment his style. Salvator Mundi is a shipper from California with credentials to be competitive off his best race. The son of Artie Schiller goes for the always-potent P. D’Amato/F. Prat combo (31%) and will have every chance from a mid-pack early position to wear down the leaders in the final furlong.
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RACE 5: Post: 12:36 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Who Took the Money; 5-Ghazaaly

Forecast: Ghazaaly is a progressive Ghostzapper colt with improving speed figures and is fresh from a nice maiden score at Keeneland last month. This is not a particularly strong first-level allowance event so with continued progression the T. Pletcher-trained colt should be capable of winning right back. Who Took the Money is undefeated in three starts – each of his wins have come against Louisiana-bred competition - and today he gets tested in open company. The speed figure he earned two races back at Fair Grounds will make him a very strong fit and arguably the potential favorite and one to beat. We should be able to survive and advance just using these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 1:14 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Got Stormy; 6-Blowout

Forecast: Blowout has a history of firing fresh and the C. Brown barn hits at 27% with layoff runners so we are expecting this English-bred mare to fire a big shot in her first outing since being nosed out in the Matriarch S.-G1 last November. She has generally been a front-running type but can stalk and pounce if the pace flow dictates, so F. Prat has the option of taking her back early if he so chooses. Got Stormy made hard work of it to win the Honey Fox S.-G3 in her most recent appearance in February and at age six with 27 races behind her she is probably not quite as good as she once was. Still, the M. Casse-trained mare always has to be respected. The pace should be quick and perhaps contested so her projected second flight, stalking position should have her in the proper position when called upon in the final furlong. We will use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Blowout on top.
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RACE 7: Post: 1:56 ET Grade: X
Single: 4-Gamine

Forecast: Gamine is listed as the 1/5 morning line favorite, and it will take something unforeseen for her to be upset in the Derby City Distaff S.-G1 at her preferred distance of seven furlongs. The B. Baffert-trained filly did not have to be anywhere near her best to win the Las Flores S.-G3 in her seasonal bow at Santa Anita last month by five lengths and should be expected to be even sharper and fitter today. She can easily establish the pace in a field that lacks another front-running type and then do what she pleases from there as a no value free bingo square for rolling exotic players.
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RACE 8: Post: 2:48 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Defunded; 5-Prevalence; 8-Dream Shake

Forecast: We are going to try to beat the 3-1 morning line favorite Jackie’s Warrior, who may not quite be the same colt that was so impressive and precocious last year. If you would feel more comfortable including him on your rolling exotic ticket, go ahead. Instead, we will focus on three talented 3-year-olds who are turning back from route races to a one-turn mile, a distance that they should be ideally suited for. Dream Shake should enjoy this shortened distance after finishing a willing but weakening third in the Santa Anita Derby. His debut sprint win was spectacular, so if he can duplicate that type of performance today he will be tough to beat. Recent workouts indicate the P. Eurton-trained colt is ready to bounce back in a big way. Defunded was highly impressive breaking his maiden two runs back and then wound up a distant fourth in the Santa Anita Derby-G1 in a race that he probably was not quite ready for. Back around one turn today, removing blinkers, and switching to I. Ortiz, Jr., the gelded son of Dialed In sports a bullet five furlong workout (:59 flat) since raced and looks capable of settling off the pace and then blasting home. Prevalence failed to stay nine furlongs when unplaced in the Wood Memorial S.-G2 last time out and was victimized by traffic most of the way, so we will toss that race out. If he can run back to either of his first two races, the B. Walsh-trained colt can act with these. He is 6-1 on the morning line and that seems about right.
*
*
RACE 9: Post: 3:40 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Annex; 5-Du Jour; 13-Scarlett Sky

Forecast: Annex and Scarlett Sky know each other well – they were heads apart when Annex won the Cutler Bay S. at Gulfstream Park - and then ‘Sky returned to frank the form when winning the Transylvania S.-G3 at Keeneland last month. Both deserve to be well-backed again in this middle distance turf event restricted to 3-year-olds, with Scarlett Sky deserving a very slight nod on top in a race that has sufficient speed signed on to compliment his closing style. We will also toss in the B. Baffert-trained California invader Du Jour, a Temple City colt with rising numbers in each of four outings that include two recent dominating scores against lesser foes. Today we will find out what he is made of.
*
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RACE 10: Post: 4:31 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Mind Control; 5-Tap It to Win; 4-Flagstaff

Forecast: We are going to approach this race under the assumption that Whitmore has lost a step or two at age eight with 40 races of wear and tear behind him. The popular gelding may vulnerable again after failing as the favorite when twice beaten by C Z Rocket at Oaklawn Park in his two most recent outings. The son of Pleasantly Perfect is listed at 7/2 in this year’s renewal of the Churchill Downs S.-G1, and while that seems like a square price if you can get it, we will look elsewhere. Tap It to Win got a confidence-building win at Tampa Bay Downs in his comeback in late March and should be able to build on that effort today. In a field without intense early speed, the M. Casse-trained colt should be close up throughout and have every chance from a stalker’s position or maybe even on the front end if the situation presents itself. He is reunited with regular pilot J. Velasquez and appears primed for a career top performance. Flagstaff, pegged as the morning line favorite at 3-1, always is most effective in extended sprints, and after winning the Commonwealth S.-G3 last month at Keeneland he should be a live item right back, though it is puzzling that J. Rosario jumps off to ride Endorsed (listed at 12-1). Mind Control offers good middle-price value at 6-1 and is worth including as well. Four of his seven career wins have been accomplished over this seven furlong distance and with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. the veteran son of Stay Thirsty projects to settle in the second flight and then be troublesome from the furlong pole to the wire.
*
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RACE 11: Post: 5:27 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Colonial Liam; 4-Ivar

Forecast: This year’s Turf Classic-G1 is highly contentious, but two appear to stick out in the field of nine. Colonial Liam seeks his fourth straight stakes win and this lightly-raced 4-year-old, with just seven career starts, has room for further improvement as he develops and matures. The T. Pletcher-trained colt prefers to settle in the second flight and then blast home, and with regular jockey I. Ortiz, Jr. remaining aboard – he could have opted for Hollywood Derby-G1 winner Domestic Spending - the son of Colonel Liam looks capable of continuing his winning ways. Ivar, highly-impressive winning the Shadwell Turf Mile-G1 at Keeneland last fall and then a respectable fourth (beaten two lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile-G1 in November, returns off the bench for low percentage connections at a distance (nine furlongs) that he has never tried before. However, the Brazilian import was bred on Southern Hemisphere time and will not actually turn five until October, so we suspect this winner of five races from eight starts has plenty of improvement still in him. There are others on paper look dangerous, but we will try to survive and advance using just these two, with preference on top to Colonial Liam.
*
*

RACE 12: Post: 6:57 PT Grade: B+
Use: 14-Essential Quality; 15-Rock Your World; 12-Helium

Forecast: Here is the bottom line. We very much like Rock Your World to win this year’s Kentucky Derby and this undefeated son of Candy Ride will receive the bulk of our play both in the win pool and in our rolling exotics. Perfect in three starts and the earner of a triple-digit Beyer speed figure when winning the Santa Anita Derby-G1 in his first try on dirt, the J. Sadler-trained colt should be prominent throughout and perhaps even on the lead, just as he was in his most recent victory. However, ‘World was victorious from slightly off the pace in both his maiden win and in the Pasadena S., so the options are there for jockey J. Rosario to adjust to whatever race flow comes his way. Rock Your World is listed at 5-1 on the morning line and we see sufficient wagering value at or near that price. There are two other undefeated colts in the race, and they are at opposite ends of the wagering spectrum. Essential Quality, the 2-1 morning line favorite, is genuine, dependable, versatile, and must be respected, though he is not particularly imposing on speed figures. Helium (50-1) is considerably more dangerous than what the bare form shows in his Tampa Bay Derby-G2 win in a race in which he was forced to lose a considerable amount of ground throughout yet found the type of reserve energy when challenged in the final furlong that only good colts have. You can use all three in exactas and trifectas if you would like, along with other reasonable contenders such as Known Agenda, Hot Rod Charlie, and perhaps even Dynamic One, who at 20-1 should run a career top and may be able sneak in for at least a piece of it.
*
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RACE 13: Post: 7:55 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Prime Factor; 7-One Fast Cat

Forecast: This first-level allowance extended sprint for 3-year-olds looks very much like a stakes race and in fact most of these will be competing in added money events in the near future. Prime Factor broke his maiden like a future star sprinting in his debut but then disappointed in a pair subsequent graded stakes races around two turns. Freshened, backing up in trip and adding Lasix for the first time, the son of Quality Road still has a chance to be a decent sort and this race may confirm out suspicion that he is best suited to sprint at this stage of his career. If so, the T. Pletcher-trained colt will be tough to beat. One Fast Cat is progressing nicely for W. Ward, winning his debut over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park in good style and then finishing a close third (beaten less than a length) in a strong allowance sprint at Keeneland last month. The son of Fast Anna switches to J. Rosario, shows a bullet workout since raced, and seems likely to continue his improving pattern. At 5-1 on the morning line, he is a major player. These are the two we will be including in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Prime Factor.
*
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RACE 14: Post: 4:25 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Happy Hepo

Forecast: Happy Hepo did not make it the races until June of his 3-year-old season, and after flashing excellent speed before fading to wind up a distant fourth the son of American Pharoah has taken almost a year to make it back to the post. His recent workouts at Santa Anita have been superb – he has been showing superior speed while proving best over some talented workmates - so whatever the issue he had in his debut at Los Alamitos appears to have been corrected. F. Prat taking the call (38% when he hooks up with this barn) and we highly doubt that the B. Baffert-trained colt was put on a plane to Kentucky to be given a race. At 6-1 on the morning line, he is a win play and rolling exotic single to close out a glorious afternoon of racing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 06:22 AM

Friday, April 30: Frank Carulli's Stronach 5 Picks

April 28, 2021 | By Frank Carulli
LEG A // PIMLICO // RACE 8 (4:34PM ET) // OPTIONAL CLAIMING // 5 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)

DALTON, second in back-to-back 6F stakes as a 2-year-old, is clearly the one to beat if ready for his seasonal debut, but it's anybody's race if he doesn't win, so we're going 4-deep on the ticket.

LEG B // GULFSTREAM // RACE 9 (4:48PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 7 1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)

JAZZY T took serious money and set the pace in a longer turf route before tiring in her debut. Her dam, Very Very, finished first or second in 9 of 24 starts on the turf. MARICOPA earned a competitive speed figure for a higher claiming price three starts back on soft footing, then ran second in a pair of follow-up 7F dirt sprints.

LEG C // PIMLICO // RACE 9 (5:10PM ET) // CLAIMING // 5 FURLONGS (TURF)

NAUTICAL NATURE, overmatched in his last two starts on the main track, led to the stretch on a 'good' turf in the fall and can make good use of his speed in this spot. DAYSTRIKE couldn't break through at the $5,000/nw3 level on dirt, but he could awaken with a 19/3-2-5 turf record and nearly $100,000 in earnings. TALE OF E DUBAI finished 1-2 in 23 of 47 starts but he's 1-7 on grass and probably will be an underlay.

LEG D // SANTA ANITA // RACE 3 (5:15PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 1 MILE (DIRT)

CIRCLE OF HONOR dueled for a half-mile with the winning favorite, then re-engaged for the stretch drive after he relinquished the lead. He held to finish a clear second, earning top billing in here. CURIOUS INJI, working well for his return from a 3-month layoff, stalked and faded in his first main-track try at 6-1/2F. The winner of that race came back to romp in a one mile starter allowance.

LEG E // GOLDEN GATE // RACE 3 (5:30PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 1 MILE (TURF)

SPACE ODESSEY tracked stretch-out sprinter Stormin Galileo while 3-wide, came under a hard drive on the turn, then surged late to finish second. That being said, use a pair of stretch-out sprinters trying turf for the first time. The dam of heavily-bet main track entrant THEY'RE GRREAT was 1-3 on grass with a 6F starter allowance romp, while the sire of HEFTY GARCIA was a multiple graded stakes-winning router.

SUGGESTED $1 STRONACH 5 TICKET

Leg A: 1, 6, 7, 8
Leg B: 6, 10
Leg C: 3, 7, 8
Leg D: 6, 7
Leg E: 2, 4, 6
COST: $144

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 06:24 AM

AI Picks: Friday's Kentucky Oaks

April 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
To help you handicap Friday’s tradition-rich Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs, the 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence provides its look at the data for the fillies racing for the lilies. And when you bet with 1/ST BET or Xpressbet for the Kentucky Oaks, receive up to a $10 Money-Back Special if your win bet finishes second or third.

Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

KENTUCKY OAKS // CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 11 (5:51PM ET)

#12 Search Results // 31%W // 46%P // 56%S
#6 Travel Column // 14%W // 34%P // 45%S
#10 Malathaat // 12%W // 23%P // 32%S
#14 Millefeuille// 8%W // 19%P // 24%S
#4 Crazy Beautiful // 8%W // 13%P // 32%S
#3 Clairiere // 5%W // 13%P // 28%S
#5 Pass the Champagne // 3%W // 11%P // 26%S
#8 Moraz // 3%W // 9%P // 14%S
#1 Pauline’s Pearl // 3%W // 6%P // 8%S
#2 Maracuja // 3%W // 5%P // 8%S
#7 Ava’s Grace // 3%W // 5%P // 8%S *SCRATCHED*
#9 Coach // 3%W // 5%P // 8%S
#11 Will’s Secret // 3%W // 5%P // 8%S
#13 Competitive Speed // 3%W // 5%P // 8%S

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 07:11 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #6

#6 Ortinola	Dropper tried better in the only local race, and she seems likely to be able to get past these late in the lane. Wouldn't want too much shorter than the ML offering.
#1 Devilish Beauty	Reliable underneath type wouldn't surprise with a win here, but her baseline run probably finds one or two others a bit too good for her tonight.
#4 Secret Castle	Forward player finished just behind 'Beauty when they both caught that short-field romping winner, and she has a little bit of versatility to settle off the splits if someone wants to take the initiative early.
Race Summary	Ortinola might have a bit sharper finishing punch on the cutback tonight, and one of her better recent efforts would be good enough with this group.

Charles Town - Race #7

#5 Littlebitalily	She seems at her best when she finds the front, but she has had a bit of past success from just off the pace. She looks like the right one to use to try to beat the chalk.
#3 Union Song	Chalk will give the top choice a decent head start, but her recent form has come with some better groups at Laurel and she can be tough here at an underlaid number.
#4 Super Malibu	She was an easy winner on the front end when trying two turns for the first time, and while this step up might make her a bit of a reach on top, she might be good enough to land a piece of this at a price.
Race Summary	Littlebitalily has some positional pace and may be good enough to handle the likely chalk, as she owns some recent races that stack up well in this local debut.

Charles Town - Race #8

#7 Marylander	Likely short price to close out the night, he brings recent Laurel form to this one that seems better than what the locals have to offer. Should handle these.
#4 Envision Success	He rolled against an easier group last time out, and he was able to hold decent form for a bit in the past, easing some concerns about whether he can run back to that last one.
#8 Bellows	Reliable underneath type goes first off the claim, and maybe a change of scenery will give him the little nudge he needs to get over the top.
Race Summary	Marylander should find this local crew to his liking, and he should be able to find a decent spot tracking the pace. Improved form for the new team should make him tough here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 07:12 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Freehold - Race #1

#3 ALLY WAY CAST	Couldn't get past odds-on winner, today's Best Bet.
#4 BAD DAY BLACK ROCK	Good late foot to finish behind 'Ally', price attached.
#6 LIONHEAD	Just missed in faster division of split race, knows how to win.
Race Summary	Ally Way Cast followed the sudden burst of the 3-to-5 winner and battled gamely through the stretch to miss by one length. He should live up to favoritism in this spot. Play 3-4 and 3-6 exactas.

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#4 SKYWAY BILLY	Visually impressive in latest, should sit dream trip, taken to repeat.
#8 WISE IMAGE	Good first gear, 20 wins, Napolitano's choice.
#5 RON BAKARDI	Rode pocket to victory, rallies onto exotic tickets.
Race Summary	Skyway Billy tracked the dueling favorites, angled 3-wide on the final turn and pulled away in a manner that suggests he can repeat on the class rise. His versatility comes in handy, too, in a speed-laden field. Play 4-5 and 4-8 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #3

#1 STEUBEN HANOVER	Projects ideal trip, moves outside in for third start at Big M.
#4 KENZIESKY HANOVER	Chased odds-on fave through fast splits before fading.
#2 JUMPSHOT	Led at stretch call, held for minor awards for top trot barn in Canada.
Race Summary	Steuben Hanover rallied into a :56.4 middle half and finished third in his second start locally. He moves inside and gets ample pace flow to run at again. Play 1-2 and 1-4 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 07:13 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #4

#4 Cassie Belle	Has taken on much strong company and should be able to handle these; comes in off an even second against open company and Hernandez has had good luck aboard her with a win and two seconds.
#6 Colombian Gold	Gave way from early efforts and seems to do better when she stalks; likely to be that kind of trip today.
#5 Kleen Karma	Was a closing second in her last turf effort and has been on the board in her last three grass appearances; capable of a solid late run.
Race Summary	Cassie Belle can be close up from the beginning and has the class to kick clear late.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#4 Paige Runner	Has easy wins in four of her last six and is tremendous once she gets in front; will be difficult to catch.
#3 Midnight Jamboree	Finished ahead of Paige Runner last time and lost that one by a nose; in good form, game.
#5 Diva in Charge	Stalked, took the lead and drew clear last out; gave way last time but is capable of much better and could dig in against this short field.
Race Summary	Paige Runner will get to the front end and should be able to dictate the pace; legit chance to go wire to wire.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#3 Antithetical	Was third in her last turn and turns back to a turf sprint; will make a solid run at the shorter distance.
#1 Armour Plate	Ran on well and just missed last out; can adjust to the pace and will be fighting it out to the end.
#2 Hartel	Usually gets to the lead and should be tough on the front end in this one; comes off a good third and fits well.
Race Summary	Antithetical gets a good pace in from of him and can make a strong late run; well spotted.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 02:43 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special E

Equibase Special E - Race 3
Stakes • 1 1/4 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 108 • Purse: $3,000,000 • Post: 6:57P
KENTUCKY DERBY PRESENTED BY WOODFORD RESERVE - GRADE 1 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS, WITH AN ENTRY FEE OF $25,000 EACH AND A STARTING FEE OF $25,000 EACH.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ESSENTIAL QUALITY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (d irt or turf) is at least 50. ROCK YOUR WORLD: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. MEDINA SPIRIT: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. HIGHLY MOTIVATED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HOT ROD CHARLIE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
14	ESSENTIAL QUALITY	2/1	6/1
15	ROCK YOUR WORLD	5/1	6/1
8	MEDINA SPIRIT	15/1	6/1
17	HIGHLY MOTIVATED	10/1	8/1
9	HOT ROD CHARLIE	8/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
15	ROCK YOUR WORLD	15	5/1	Front-runner	100	99	116.6	97.6	90.6
8	MEDINA SPIRIT	8	15/1	Front-runner	104	98	104.9	99.0	88.5
10	MIDNIGHT BOURBON	10	20/1	Front-runner	97	96	83.2	90.6	65.6
9	HOT ROD CHARLIE	9	8/1	Stalker	100	98	89.1	96.0	82.5
7	MANDALOUN	7	15/1	Stalker	95	97	84.7	89.6	68.1
14	ESSENTIAL QUALITY	14	2/1	Stalker	103	107	82.7	101.2	96.2
16	KING FURY	16	20/1	Stalker	96	99	82.6	87.8	67.3
2	LIKE THE KING	2	50/1	Stalker	94	95	81.7	88.3	56.8
12	HELIUM	12	50/1	Stalker	92	94	81.5	89.1	70.6
18	SUPER STOCK	18	30/1	Stalker	99	100	78.2	93.2	78.2
17	HIGHLY MOTIVATED	17	10/1	Stalker	104	105	73.0	100.9	88.9
5	SAINTHOOD	5	50/1	Stalker	93	90	67.8	86.0	57.0
19	SOUP AND SANDWICH	19	30/1	Stalker	97	102	62.0	98.0	85.0
6	O BESOS	6	20/1	Trailer	92	95	87.0	87.5	60.5
1	KNOWN AGENDA	1	6/1	Trailer	97	108	76.0	93.6	78.6
13	HIDDEN STASH	13	50/1	Trailer	94	91	74.8	90.2	59.2
3	BROOKLYN STRONG	3	50/1	Trailer	91	94	74.0	87.3	50.8
4	KEEPMEINMIND	4	50/1	Trailer	98	95	71.8	91.4	66.4
11	DYNAMIC ONE	11	20/1	Trailer	97	94	65.4	95.0	73.5
20	BOURBONIC	20	30/1	Trailer	94	94	62.5	86.2	53.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 02:46 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 5	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent mimimum wager $1 Pick Four
Maiden • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 79 • Purse: $8,500 • Post: 7:52P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * LOOK UP: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. JESS HEZ ON FIRE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	LOOK UP	3/1	5/2
1	JESS HEZ ON FIRE	3/1	5/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	JESS HEZ ON FIRE	1	3/1	Fast/Trouble-prone	79	78	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	LOOK UP	4	3/1	Fast	79	77	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	PRECYSION	7	5/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: HRH SIGNIFICANTEAGLE (9/2) [Jockey: Mendez Cruz - Trainer: Flores Jose Antonio], DECLARED BEST CARD (15/1) [Jockey: Peinado Oscar M - Trainer: Gomez Jaime H], JESS BEING A FRIEND (15/1) [Jockey: Herrera Diego A - Trainer: Andra

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 02:46 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Allowance - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7700 Class Rating: 71

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR NEBRASKA-BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 EXTRA GORGEOUS 4/1
# 2 FLAN 2/1
# 3 TAYLOR'S BEAUTY 3/1

EXTRA GORGEOUS looks to be a solid contender. This mare looks like a playable longshot. Is tough not to look at given the company run in lately. She has been running solidly and the speed figures are among the best in this field. FLAN - Will probably come out sharp - I have liked the way this mare has moved quickly to the lead recently. This mare should be considered just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint events alone. TAYLOR'S BEAUTY - Has posted strong speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Should compete admirably in the early pace contest which bodes well with this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 02:47 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Prairie Meadows - Race #7 - Post: 8:42pm - Allowance - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $41,278 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#5 LEIGHTON KENTUCKY (ML=8/1)
#8 BYE LOVE GOTTA GO (ML=6/1)
#3 GOLD MAKER (ML=10/1)

LEIGHTON KENTUCKY - Mare took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. Lets try to beat the favorites with this mare. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty decent race. BYE LOVE GOTTA GO - This thoroughbred absolutely loves this track. All her trips to the winner's circle have been here at Prairie Meadows. This mare has been claimed each of her last two starts. She figures to be tough in today's event. Horse made up some ground in the stretch drive last out on Oct 9th at Prairie Meadows. That affair is better than it looked. GOLD MAKER - I think the shorter trip will help this mare stay the trip. Three consecutive improved speed figures (59-67-69) make this animal a solid contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 DAMASCUS GATE (ML=3/1), #1 TAPTHATLUCK (ML=7/2), #6 REPEAL (ML=9/2),

DAMASCUS GATE - I usually try to beat these types of favorites off the long layoff. TAPTHATLUCK - Be particularly concerned about this three-year old versus older. Will do better with more racing experience. REPEAL - 9/2 is not offering enough value for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 5 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance clash recently. Will not be easy for this animal to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the questionable contenders list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #5 LEIGHTON KENTUCKY to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,5,8] with [3,5,8] with [3,5,6,8,9] with [3,5,6,8,9] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 02:50 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $17600 Class Rating: 70

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $8,000 1 LB. RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 CASTLE OF CAYLEE 4/5
# 5 MABEL 3/1
# 6 SILKEN BELLE 6/1

I've got to go with CASTLE OF CAYLEE. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare. With Lopez in the saddle guiding her, this mare should be able to break out early for this event. With a decent 75 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. MABEL - Has solid Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a bet for this event. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Latchman will almost certainly have this mare in excellent position to win the outing. SILKEN BELLE - Has very good Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a bet for this race. Is a contender - given the 58 speed figure from her most recent race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 02:51 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Penn National - Race #6 - Post: 8:10pm - Allowance - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,600 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#4 MY DEVILS CHILD (ML=5/1)
#6 BRAVE DEACON (ML=2/1)
#2 GREAT BEND (ML=8/1)

MY DEVILS CHILD - Gelding's finish positions keep getting better with each race. Maybe today's the day. BRAVE DEACON - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a sharp race on April 14th. I like this gelding. Has the highest earnings per race in here. GREAT BEND - Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a sharp contest in the last race within the last 30 days. Rounding his way back into form. Each of his finish positions is getting better in his recent starts. This horse has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 51 to 68 to 73 right in a row.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 A T M AWESOME (ML=5/2), #5 AFLEET TRAXX (ML=6/1), #1 LONG TOM (ML=8/1),

A T M AWESOME - Could be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued equines list. AFLEET TRAXX - This questionable contender ran a mediocre fig last out. He shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat in today's race running that figure. LONG TOM - A bit of a lackluster performance when this gelding finished fifth.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #4 MY DEVILS CHILD on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6] Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2021, 02:52 PM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

04/30/21, CD, Race 11, 5.51 ET
04/30/21,CD,11,1 1/8M [Dirt] 1:47:01 STAKES. Longines Kentucky Oaks. Grade 1. Purse $1,250,000. FOR FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	12	Search Results	3/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Brown Chad C.	F	427	20.37	1.17/$1
099.6526	6	Travel Column	3/1	Geroux F	Cox Brad H.		427	20.37	1.17/$1
098.3621	10	Malathaat	5/2	Velazquez J R	Pletcher Todd A.	E	454	25.77	1.16/$1
098.1249	14	Millefeuille	20/1	Rosario J	Mott William I.	W	454	25.77	1.16/$1
098.0273	5	Pass the Champagne	15/1	Castellano J	Weaver George		454	25.77	1.16/$1
097.1951	9	Coach	50/1	Saez L	Cox Brad H.		454	25.77	1.16/$1
096.8965	3	Clairiere	5/1	Gaffalione T	Asmussen Steven M.	C	454	25.77	1.16/$1
096.0076	8	Moraz	30/1	Prat F	McCarthy Michael W.	J	454	25.77	1.16/$1
095.9995	7	Ava's Grace	50/1	Cohen D	Diodoro Robertino	TL	454	25.77	1.16/$1
095.8270	1	Pauline's Pearl	20/1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.	S	427	20.37	1.17/$1
095.3659	2	Maracuja	20/1	Carmouche K	Atras Rob		454	25.77	1.16/$1
094.9527	11	Will's Secret	30/1	Court J K	Stewart Dallas		454	25.77	1.16/$1
094.2378	4	Crazy Beautiful	15/1	Ortiz J L	McPeek Kenneth G.		454	25.77	1.16/$1
091.6318	13	Competitive Speed	50/1	Landeros C	Gonzalez Javier E.		454	25.77	1.16/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 24.07, ROI 1.29/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -0.3474
[Category]Condition
[AllCategories]NotMorningLineFavorite(not entry)

Friday 4/30/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Friday 4/30/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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