Friday 4/16/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Kevin Dolan

Event: (200105) Tottenham at (200106) Everton
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 16, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Draw +239
*Client Play
We're taking the outright Draw on Friday night between Tottenham and Everton over in the EPL.
Both teams enter this one coming off really poor runs of form, Everton winless in four and Tottenham just one win in five, so a nervy encounter is expected here in Friday's standalone game.
Everton sit a point off Tottenham in the table, but have a game in hand over the visitors, and if either team is to a muster a late stage push into a European place, it has to start here.
However, with the struggles of both teams recently, we think both teams cancel each other out here on Friday and finish in a stalemate.
Everton have scored just two goals across their last five games in all and only Brighton have given up more points from winning positions this season than Tottenham.
Take the outright Draw on Friday at a healthy +239 price between Tottenham and Everton over in the EPL.
PLAY: DRAW +239

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Event: (69) Los Angeles Kings at (70) Colorado Avalanche
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: April 16, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Total Over 5.5 (-125)
The Avs are the #1 scoring team in hockey right now and have scored 4 goals or more in each of their last 3 games. The Kings can score as well, as they are 23-18 to the over, but that is more reflective of their D especially in their last few games. They have gone 5-0-1 to the over in their last 6 games and they are allowing teams to an average of 3 goals a game all season. As of now it looks like the Avs will be starting their backup as well and I think we can get at least 2 goals from the Kings. The number here is 5.5 and frankly, I would be surprised if this game doesn’t go over 6. Everything points to a 5-2, 4-3 type game tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays

Apr 16 '21, 2:45 PM in 6h
Soccer | Northampton Town vs Peterborough United
Play on: Peterborough United -204 at BetCris

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Peterborough United -204

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

Apr 16 '21, 3:00 PM in 6h
Soccer | Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton
Play on: Everton +247 at pinnacle

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Friday Free Pick Everton Money Line +247 vs Tottenham - Both clubs have been struggling recently but both still have top four ambitions in the table for a Champions League position. That said, we have seen a lot of big dog cashing in recently in EPL and I am expecting another one here. I know one could argue that Everton's form has been worse than Tottenham's of late, but on their home pitch and coming off a disappointing scoreless draw at Brighton & Hove, I am expecting a big response here. Everton has won both meetings with Tottenham this season (one was in English FA Cup action) and I look for them to again find a way here at a big plus money price in this one. Free Pick EVERTON +247

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday, April 16: Frank Carulli's Stronach 5 Picks

April 15, 2021 | By Frank Carulli

LEG A // GULFSTREAM PARK // RACE 7 (4:18PM ET) // OPTIONAL CLAIMING // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)

Tough opening leg with morning-line favorite BRIELLA back-pedaling off the claim after winning for $50,000 and the remaining six runners coming off recent wins by a combined 38 lengths. Let's go with PULLING STRINGS as the top pick as she awakened off the Barboza claim with a powerful sprint victory in her second start as a 3-year-old. MISS MIKAELA, dismissed at 2-1 odds or less in all six starts, rewarded her loyal backers with a 10-length win while wearing blinkers for the second time.


LEG B // GULFSTREAM PARK // RACE 8 (4:50PM ET) // OPTIONAL CLAIMING // 1 1/16 MILES (TURF)

DOMINATE THE MOMENT made a quick 3-wide bid on the final turn, but KROY had something left after controlling the pace and topped $250k in turf earnings with the win. TIL THE END rallied for a win, two seconds and two thirds in his last five turf routes against Florida breds and is a must use on the ticket.


LEG C // GULFSTREAM PARK // RACE 9 (5:22PM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT // 5 FURLONGS (TURF)

MUMBAI led until the closing yards on a soft turf course off a 10-month layoff for Clement. WISE MEMORIES is by Tapit, a Top 5 North America sire by earnings the last six years and his trainer, Ralph Nicks, is 64-438 (19 percent) with first-time starters in that same time period.


LEG D // GOLDEN GATE FIELDS // RACE 3 (5:27PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 5 FURLONGS (ALL WEATHER)

WINNING APPEAL willingly pursued the 5-1 winner but settled for her third runner-up showing in her last five starts. SNOOZY SUZY showed good speed as a 2-year-old and makes her seasonal debut for a 24-percent trainer-jockey duo in the last year.


LEG E // GOLDEN GATE FIELDS // RACE 4 (6:00PM ET) // CLAIMING // 1 MILE (TURF)

IMPLICITLY is working forwardly since he was claimed out of a $5,000 sprint and he finished second when last seen on the turf to Seau, who won a $16k/n4L claimer Monday at Turf Paradise. FRIENDLY OUTTHEDOR rallied to win his prior two starts on the Golden Gate grass and should get the needed pace flow to contend at a boxcar price. PIONEEROFTHESTORM controlled the pace to defeat five rivals on the main track and he has two solid one-mile grass routes to summon from last fall.


SUGGESTED $1 TICKET

Leg A: 1, 2, 4
Leg B: 1, 2, 4
Leg C: 1, 2
Leg D: 5, 11
Leg E: 1, 4, 7

Ticket Cost: $108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Our Experts Rate the Derby Prospects as of April 15

April 15, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

The major preps are in the books for the 2021 Kentucky Derby. All that’s in the way between now and May 1 are final workouts, a bit of good luck and the post position draw.

Our resident historians and handicappers check back in with their Top 10 contenders for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.

Jeff Siegel

#1 Essential Quality
#2 Rock Your World
#3 Known Agenda
#4 Hot Rod Charlie
#5 Highly Motivated
#6 Medina Spirit
#7 Midnight Bourbon
#8 Concert Tour
#9 Helium
#10 Soup and Sandwich

Jon White

#1 Essential Quality
#2 Rock Your World
#3 Concert Tour
#4 Hot Rod Charlie
#5 Known Agenda
#6 Highly Motivated
#7 Medina Spirit
#8 Midnight Bourbon
#9 Mandaloun
#10 Super Stock

John DeSantis

#1 Essential Quality
#2 Hot Rod Charlie
#3 Rock Your World
#4 Known Agenda
#5 Concert Tour
#6 Highly Motivated
#7 Medina Spirit
#8 Midnight Bourbon
#9 Bourbonic
#10 O Besos

Jeremy Plonk

#1 Essential Quality
#2 Known Agenda
#3 Highly Motivated
#4 Medina Spirit
#5 Rock Your World
#6 Hot Rod Charlie
#7 Midnight Bourbon
#8 Super Stash
#9 Caddo River
#10 Concert Tour

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Your Final Kentucky Derby Prep

April 15, 2021 | By Johnny D


It’s roughly 14 more sleeps (catnaps not included) until they run America’s most important race the Gr. 1 Kentucky Derby. The Gr. 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic and a few other stateside events are worth more money, but the Run for the Roses remains the Holy Grail for the majority of racing folk, including breeders, owners, trainers, jockeys, stable and farm hands.

Horseplayers, also, find particular delight in cashing a ticket on the Kentucky Derby. Even though it’s often effectively argued that money earned via an $11 mutuel payoff on the Derby winner spends much the same as an equivalent return on the first one home in the fourth at Podunk Downs, there’s a certain je ne sais quoi that accompanies Kentucky Derby wagering success.

Perhaps it’s the race’s uniqueness—20 sophomores going one mile and one-quarter on dirt in a race first run 10 years after the Civil War. Maybe it’s the Twin Spires…Mint Juleps...The Infield…Millionaires Row…“My Old Kentucky Home”…The Walk? Take your pick. It’s special. Nothing like it. Anywhere.

Larger purses elsewhere? Sure. A lot larger. This year’s Kentucky Derby bounty is $3 million. That’s a nice chunk of change but still a hefty $17 million short of the Gr. 1 Saudi Cup treasure trove in the world’s richest horse race. Of course, in 2021, Saudi’s had an extra $10 million in purse money lying around from the 2020 edition because they still haven’t paid connections of winner Maximum Security, pending an investigation related to assorted federal charges against trainer Jason Servis regarding illegal substances. Of course, on that front, the Kentucky Derby inadvertently outdid the Saudi Cup in the 2019 Kentucky Derby when stewards immediately disqualified Maximum Security for interference. The winner’s share of the purse that year went to original runner-up Country House.

The 2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic purse was $6 million—twice that of the Kentucky Derby! But go ahead and poll America’s horseracing community and they’ll choose winning the Derby over the Classic (or Saudi Cup) in a landslide. Why? Because money isn’t everything? Not exactly. It’s more because the Derby is everything.

Since 1876, kids have gone to sleep dreaming about winning the Kentucky Derby. Adults, too. As Hall-of-Fame jockey Chris McCarron once explained, “It’s the first thing people ask when they hear you’re a jockey, ‘Have you ever won the Kentucky Derby?’ Thankfully, I can answer ‘yes.’ Then they’re really impressed.”

Likewise, at this time of year, ‘Who do you like in the Derby?’ is what horseplayers commonly hear from friends and acquaintances. And we desperately want to have the right answer. Not because they’re liable to rush out and wager on our tout. No, it’s a matter of pride. Picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby is akin to the Bambino calling his shot—pointing toward the bleachers and then landing one there.

Surprisingly often folks remember which horse you picked, especially if you’re correct. Then you’re rewarded with props and amazement usually reserved for holed 25-foot putts or successful Final Jeopardy questions.

Two weeks out, how best should we proceed in order to have the Derby winner’s name on the tip of our tongues? Good question. You’ve obviously watched (and maybe wagered) on the prep races, especially the 16 included in the Championship Series. If you’ve missed any of those, visit Xpressbet’s Replay section and check them out.

A close review of the past performances of the runners is critical. Read all you can about possible Derby starters because you may pick up an angle or two that could help in solving the puzzle. Xpressbet’s FREE Kentucky Derby Wager Guide will be available online beginning Friday, April 23, and will be updated the following week. That’s a great resource for information, including selections, wagering strategies and workout analysis from nationwide racing experts. Plus, the Guide’s FREE and worth twice the price!

Since this is your final prep before the Derby, it’s a good idea to rank runners according to the following criteria:
Who Can Win?
Who Can Finish In the Money?
Who Can You Toss?

With 20 Derby starters, you can’t use them all. Gotta break some eggs, i.e. toss horses from your tickets. Ranking them in the above categories is the best way to get a feel for who you want, who you need and who you can live without.

Here’s a quick look at a few worth including in your ‘Who Can Win?’ Category.

There were 36 total races awarding U.S.-based points toward spots in the Kentucky Derby starting gate and from the very beginning—the fourth race on the schedule in the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile--Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie gave us a preview of what might happen six months later in Louisville.

Just three horses won at least two of those 36 Derby points races: Life is Good (2), Greatest Honour (2) and Essential Quality (4). Only the latter will be in the Louisville starting gate. Essential Quality is the race favorite and with good reason. He won the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Futurity in October and the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November, both at Keeneland; the Gr. 3 Southwest at Oaklawn in February and the Gr. 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland in April. That’s about as pretty a Derby prep race schedule as you’ll see. Oh, and let’s not forget that he also broke maiden first time out at Churchill Downs, site of the Kentucky Derby. His Beyer Speed Figures have improved steadily from a 69 earned in the maiden score to a 97 posted last out in the Gr. 2 Blue Grass.

Hot Rod Charlie came tantalizingly close to defeating Essential Quality in the Gr. 1 BC Juvenile in November. At massive 94-1 odds, he took the lead in the stretch and was caught by the Derby favorite in the final yards. Since racing two turns on dirt, this son of Oxbow has won two races, been second by three-quarters of a length and third by a neck. One win was in a maiden race going one mile at Santa Anita, while the other efforts came in graded stakes races from California to Louisiana. His Beyer Speed Figures have improved race-by-race, from a low of 51, first out going five furlongs, to a high of 99, last out in the Louisiana Derby, without a regression. That shows outstanding development from two to three.

Rock Your World is the most interesting ‘now’ horse. Unbeaten in three starts, his first two tallies came on Santa Anita turf, going six furlongs and one mile. He announced his presence on the Kentucky Derby scene with authority in a more than four-length, wire-to-wire victory over favored Bob Baffert runner Medina Spirit in the Santa Anita Derby. His Beyer Speed Figure of 100 is the highest earned by any Derby starter (Hot Rod Charlie earned 99 in the Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby and Essential Quality posted a career high of 97 in the Gr. 2 Blue Grass). Have we already seen the best this son of Candy Ride has or is there more in the tank for trainer John Sadler and jockey Umberto Rispoli to tap? There’s no way of knowing. That’s why with him you should get decent odds. The speed and ‘stick’ he displayed in Arcadia fits the profile of many recent Derby winners—use a high cruising speed to discourage pursuers. However, he’s still green, understandably so, with just three races under his belt. He was late to change leads in the Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby stretch and then jumped back to his left lead with a sixteenth of a mile to go. Ultimately, style points don’t count, who gets there first does, and he powered away late like extra distance won’t matter.

Bottom line, no matter what it pays, cashing a ticket on the winner of the Derby is not the same as hitting any other race. You’ve got to be a racing expert to pick the winner of the Derby (at least that’s what we tell ourselves when we’re correct), any old horseplayer can cash a ticket at Podunk Downs. Both are fun, but one is more gratifying than the other.

It’s time for your final Derby prep. Are you ready?

Race On!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 4/16/21

April 16, 2021


Every Friday thru Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6.

*

Keeneland – Sixth Race – Post time: 3:51 ET
1-Master Piece (2-1)

Southern Hemisphere graded stakes winner makes his first start since October and just his second since being imported from South America is this high-quality allowance affair over nine furlongs on grass. The C. Brown-trained horse has put together a string of impressive workouts that should have him fit and ready for a trainer who hits at a superb 27% with comebackers. From the rail under top rider J. Rosario, the Chilean-bred 5-year-old has much in his favor, so at anywhere near his morning line of 2-1 he is a win play and rolling exotic single.


Keeneland – Seventh Race – Post time: 4:24 ET
10-Wora (7/2)

Made his first career start on dirt in his fourth lifetime start last month at Gulfstream Park and easily handled a good maiden field by more than three lengths to win with plenty left in a fast, highly rated affair. Drawn comfortably outside and assured good, clean, stalking trip, the son of Upstart seems well-placed for a repeat victory in this first-level allowance sprint and a recent half mile bullet workout (:47 1/5, fastest of 32) provides further evidence that the M. Casse-trained colt is ready to step forward again. There is plenty of wagering value to be found at his morning line of 7/2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #7
Picks Notes
#5 Quicker He was never really involved at this level at Penn National last out, but it seems like he will be able to control the tempo as he moves to this two-turn 7f trip. Price might be right to see if he can wire these.
#1 Hero's Man Game score last out when dropping out of stakes company, but he's meeting that Penn stretchout pace, and this guy has always done his best work when able to find the front.
#2 Boaster He has some upside in this second run off the layoff, but he has more than six lengths to turn Hero's Man, for starters.
Race Summary Quicker is worth a little price look with these, as he has found this level a bit tough so far, but he makes his local debut with really sharp pace. Put him on the front and see if he can last.

Charles Town - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Greek Sonnet Not too inspired by any of the obvious horses, so I'll take a chance with this big riser. She debuted for $5,000 and will have to come forward for a generally low-percentage barn, but she's really not too far off a big share of this at a price.
#4 Good Karma Seems like one of the logical ones, and the front should belong to her, but she rises again and has not sustained form like this before, so a step back may bein the cards soon.
#1 Three Bops She was easily beaten by Good Karma two starts back, but she rebounded with a nice score last out. She can save ground and launch a late rally, but the pace may not be sharp enough to help her get over the top.
Race Summary Greek Sonnet should be a nice number on the board, and it feels like Good Karma might be sitting on a step back. Outside of her, nobody is particularly imposing, so let's see if she can improve a bit and land this.

Charles Town - Race #9
Picks Notes
#6 Ask Me How Iknow Never love to take a 12-start maiden, but he's getting down to this basement level today and has run well around two turns locally in the past. This seems like a good spot for him to finally land one.
#3 Another Move He's in the mix if he can reproduce that last one, but he stayed on late in a small field and got DQ'ed back to third. I don't trust him to run back to it.
#8 Sun and Salt He trailed throughout in the debut run, but he now takes a massive plunge for his owner/breeder/trainer while stretching around two turns. I'd want him on my multi-race tickets.
Race Summary Ask Me How Iknow has been semi-competitive with better in a handful of recent starts, and something like that form might be enough while trying this bottom level tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Meadowlands - Race #1
Picks Notes
#10 ALL AMERICAN N Good speed, bad post, solid resume, must stay flat.
#1 GOLD MEDAL SWAN Shuffled to sixth in middle half, swung widest in lane, failed at odds-on.
#5 MASSTER BLUE Steady check-getter at Freehold, lures Sears.
Race Summary All American N chased the 3-1 leader through a :55.4 opening half mile two starts back before the deep closers arrived. He broke stride last week and draws outside tonight, but he has enough speed to get early position and go a long way up front. Play a 1-5-10 exacta box.

Meadowlands - Race #8
Picks Notes
#4 IDEAL SON Closed well for second once free, switches pilots, good value play.
#5 BETTOR NOTBITTER A Well handled on lead, steps up in three-peat attempt.
#8 PANTHEON HANOVER Winless this year, 38 wins overall, will be running late.
Race Summary Ideal Son was trapped on the rail until he split rivals in mid-stretch and got up for second behind class-rising repeater Bettor Nobitter A. He could turn the tables with a projected livlier pace to run at. Play a 4-ALL exacta.

Miami Valley - Race #5
Picks Notes
#4 SHERRI'S BABE 4yo been pacing up a storm of late, nearing $50k mark.
#3 HARPER Sustained second-over rally to finish second from the second tier.
#6 BETTER DAYS AHEAD Ran second to 'Babe' before a follow-up win at odds-on.
Race Summary Sherri's Babe widened the lead late in winning her last three races at Miami Valley, two at the same level. She ran the back half in :55.1 last week and should extend the streak. Play 4-3 and 4-6 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#1 Running Memories Made a strong fourth-place showing in a stakes race in her second career start and can secure a good trip here.
#7 Exact Was a clear winner on turf in her last two races and has shown significant improvement from her last two of 2020; capable of getting to the front end.
#8 Dontpushyourluck Was up in time against maiden claimers last out and has developed a kick at this distance.
Race Summary Running Memories ran on well in a stakes race and has the class to prevail here; can probably set up wherever her jockey prefers and can outfinish this group.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#5 Omaha City Closed well in the Texas Glitter Stakes and finished fourth; has the late energy to get the job done here.
#6 Dr. Duke Lost a photo to Omaha City for fourth in the Texas Glitter and can return to his pacesetting duties; could be difficult to catch.
#3 U.S. Steel Was a clear winner at Delaware in his only start and has trained well for Joseph; likely a big player.
Race Summary Omaha City a stakes winner at this distance on turf and seems to be perfect for this spot.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Til the End Got going too late last time out and can be successful at this distance; jockey Gonzalez is hitting at 24 percent and can be a strong factor against these state-breds.
#2 Kroy Set the pace and stayed for the win against similar last out; was claimed by Carlos David and can be expected to be strong on the front end.
#3 Dominate Themoment Was second to Kroy last time in his best effort since October; can stick around for a slice of this.
Race Summary Til the End gets a fast pace to pursue and has shown the desire to move well through the stretch; one to hold off.

[rocky57]

Spartan (MLB) - Seattle Mariners +101

[rocky57]

Rocketman Sports (MLB) - Dodgers -142

[rocky57]

Dave Essler (MLB) - Twins +111