Thursday 3/4/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Arnold Palmer Invitational Outright Winner
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: March 4, 2021 10AM EST
Play: Matthew Fitzpatrick to Win Arnold Palmer Invitational (+2500)
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Outright Winner
On the Outright market I’m looking at young Matthew Fitzpatrick this week. He is clearly trending in the right direction for his first PGA Tour win. He won the DP World Tour Championship on the European Tour back in December then followed that up with a missed cut in his next start. But since, he has gone T17, T5 and T11 last week at the WGC Workday Championship.
Fitzpatrick also has good history at this event. He finished runner-up here in 2019 which is one of his three Top-15 finishes in his last four trips here including T9 last year. He is currently ranked 27th on Tour in Strokes Gained (SG) Approach, 20th SG Tee to Green and 23rd Total SG.
For DFS players, Fitzpatrick can be had for $9,800 on DraftKings and $11,100 on FanDuel.
One other player I like this week for a strong finish is once again Will Zalatoris whom I’ve backed several times already this year. He continues to impress every week finishing T22 last week in the WGC event following a T15 at The Genesis and has four Top-10 finishes dating back to the US Open. DFS players can grab him at $8,600 at DraftKings and $10,000 at FanDuel.
TAKE MATTHEW FITZPATRICK +2500 & WILL ZALATORIS TOP-10 +450

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Matthew NeSmith vs Byeong Hun An
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: March 4, 2021 11AM EST
Play: Matthew NeSmith (-115)
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Tournament Matchup Offshore
NeSmith is relatively unknown to those that aren’t avid golf fans and that just presents some good value here on him this week as it has over the last several tournaments. Eventually that will catch up as I think he has a very high ceiling, but for now, I’m going to grab him while the getting is good.
NeSmith is #1 on the PGA Tour in Greens in Regulation this year and as such is #9 in Strokes Gained Approach. On top of that, he is #38 in driving accuracy which is very important at Bay Hill as the course has some nasty rough. Combine both of those metrics and he ranks #17 on Tour in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, not bad for a guy you probably have never heard of.
In 12 events this season, he has missed the cut four times, but he also has finished inside the Top 20 in half of those 12 events including each of his last three. He also is a strong finisher on Sunday as he has shot sub-70 on seven straight Sundays which gives additional hope even if NeSmith trails An going into the final round.
Ben An seemed like a guy that was going to make a name for himself on the Tour, but it never really manifested into much and this year he has really been struggling. He can’t get off the tee which as I mentioned can be killer at Bay Hill and he can’t putt which doesn’t bode well for a guy missing fairways who might have to rely on putter to save him. He ranks 131st on Tour in SG Off the Tee, 200th in Driving Accuracy and 231st SG Putting.
An also hasn’t had many leaderboard appearances this year as he has missed the cut in five of his 11 events with only one finish inside the Top 35.
TAKE MATTHEW NESMITH OVER BYEONG HUN AN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (200141) Tottenham at (200142) Fulham
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: March 4, 2021 1PM EST
Play: Tottenham -115
Despite Tottenham's recent poor run of form they looked sensational in Sunday's win over Burnley, dispatching the Clarets 4-0 in a rout, and after a tough stretch of games where they faced Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City, Fulham might be exactly the kind of tonic they need to string another winning run together.
Gareth Bale scored a brace in that game and the Welshman is really finding his groove right now in what is on its day one of the most explosive front three's in Europe.
Harry Kane has scored in four straight against Fulham and Spurs have netted two or more goals in their last five road games against Fulham also, so take Spurs tonight to hand their cross town rivals another loss on Thursday as they look to get back on another winning run.
PLAY: TOTTENHAM ML -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

Event: (717) Monmouth at (718) Rider
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: March 4, 2021 4PM EST
Play: Total Over 156.0 (-110)
BET SIZE / RANGE
2% at 157 or less
1% at 157.5
No play above 157.5
My college hoops totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data from KenPom.com, history involving similar games (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (47) Buffalo Sabres at (48) New York Islanders
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: March 4, 2021 7PM EST
Play: 1P Total Over 1.5 (+110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Event: (37) Toronto Maple Leafs at (38) Vancouver Canucks
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: March 4, 2021 10PM EST
Play: Vancouver Canucks +135
38 Toronto at Vancouver
Tough scheduling spot for the Leafs here after battling Edmonton on the road yesterday.
In 5x5 G+-/60 Toronto has a large edge ranking 4th to Vancouver’s 26th. In xG/60 we find the Leafs +0.29 and the Canucks -0.34. Much closer than the actual numbers would suggest. Maybe a little regression is in store for each of these clubs.
On the Power Play Toronto comes in ranked 2nd and the Canucks 26th. In xG/60 the Leafs are +8.57 and Vancouver 5.51. A huge advantage for Toronto.
Looking at the Penalty Kill we see Toronto 17th and Vancouver 14th. In xG/60 the Leafs are -4.67, and the Canucks -7.26. So the host isn’t nearly as good as the actual numbers show.
While we know the Maple Leafs are the better team when playing non 5x5 hockey. The scheduling situation is a huge one. Let’s take a shot with the home dog here.
PLAY VANCOUVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays

Mar 04 '21, 1:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | St. Joe's vs Massachusetts
Play on: Massachusetts -3 -110 at Mirage

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Massachusetts -3 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

Mar 04 '21, 1:00 PM in 4h
Soccer | Everton vs West Bromwich Albion
Play on: Everton -104 at pinnacle

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Thursday Free Pick Everton vs West Bromwich @ 1 ET - I am aware of the fact that West Bromwich has been playing better of late but the Albion are still sitting near the very bottom of the table thanks to just 3 victories in 26 matches this season. On their home pitch, West Bromwich has conceded 32 times in 13 matches! Now they host an Everton club that is very angry after a disallowed goal cost them a share of the spoils in their most recent fixture. Also, they are getting some key players back for this match and Everton has been one of the better teams in the league overall and particularly on the road. As travelers this season they have won 8 of 12 matches and have a +7 goal differential on enemy pitch. They get it done here. Free Pick EVERTON

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Banks - NCAAB - Thu, Mar 04 at 10:05 PM
Southern Utah v. Portland State

Southern Utah vs Portland State

Southern Utah -2 (-105) (BetAnySports)

Southern Utah isn't going to scare anyone with their play on the defensive end but they're a team to be reckoned with at the other end of the floor. Todd Simon has turned this program around and they head into tonight's game with a 7-game win streak in two and a 17-3 record overall. SUU is strong on the glass and they're top-30 in all of CBB in 2 point accuracy. They also own the nation's 18th best ranking in FTA/FGA ratio. Portland State is one of the worst shooting teams in CBB, inside the 3-point line or beyond it. They also foul way too much which plays right into one of SUU's strengths mentioned above. Short number...I'm backing Southern Utah. Thanks and best of luck to us! Jack Banks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields

Golden Gate Fields - Race 1	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 min) $2 Rolling Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) $0.50 Early Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 4 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $10,400 • Post: 12:45
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. GEM STATE is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GEM STATE: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. NORTHERN QUEST: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FORT YORK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff , after two sprint prep races. BLUES RAPPER: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
3	GEM STATE	2/1	5/1
4	NORTHERN QUEST	3/1	6/1
5	FORT YORK	6/1	6/1
1	BLUES RAPPER	6/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	FORT YORK	5	6/1	Front-runner	80	82	109.6	70.6	64.6
6	HOLD ME CLOSE	6	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	75	77	91.2	72.2	63.2
3	GEM STATE	3	2/1	Stalker	80	79	97.6	73.6	69.1
1	BLUES RAPPER	1	6/1	Trailer	80	77	72.2	73.4	63.4
4	NORTHERN QUEST	4	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	78	79	76.2	78.2	73.2
2	HULA KING	2	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	82	80	75.9	62.9	56.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

Charles Town - Race 8	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 10:17
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. MEGA MILLIONS is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MEGA MILLIONS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DEST INY'S CHARGE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THE EXCEPTION: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" de signation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
6	MEGA MILLIONS	8/5	5/2
9	DESTINY'S CHARGE	9/2	6/1
8	THE EXCEPTION	4/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	CREATIVE MINESHAFT	4	12/1	Alternator/Front-runner	60	64	56.8	44.7	37.7
6	MEGA MILLIONS	6	8/5	Alternator/Stalker	74	64	78.8	63.4	59.4
9	DESTINY'S CHARGE	9	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	74	58	60.4	57.5	48.0
5	GOOFY BOY	5	5/1	Trailer	63	60	41.8	55.7	44.7
8	THE EXCEPTION	8	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	69	72	32.8	63.4	57.9
7	MUSTA NEVER MET U	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	52	48	51.0	48.8	34.8
3	FOREFRONT	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	67	44.6	48.0	38.0
2	STROLLANOTHERTIME	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	55	36.0	40.3	27.8
1	STONE CRAZED	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	43	46	34.1	38.0	22.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #6 - Post: 3:33pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#1 FOXY CARMELA (ML=6/1)
#5 POLAR ROUTE (ML=4/1)
#4 IROQUOIS HEART (ML=8/1)


FOXY CARMELA - I'm expecting this horse to run a good race this time out. POLAR ROUTE - This filly is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprinters that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. IROQUOIS HEART - That last morning drill tells me this mare is set for a top race. This horse has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 33 to 42 to 45 in succession.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 SHAKE IT CALI (ML=3/1), #9 APPEARTOTRUST (ML=6/1), #10 NAVARONES SPARKLE (ML=8/1),

SHAKE IT CALI - I don't normally play a morning-line choice that hasn't been to the track in the last 3 weeks. Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance contests lately. Not likely to see her doing it this time either. APPEARTOTRUST - The insufficiency of early speed in the last one, a route event, is a bit troublesome. NAVARONES SPARKLE - When checking today's class rating, she will have to register a much better rating than in the last race to compete in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #1 FOXY CARMELA to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sam Houston

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Allowance - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $44000 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 DREAMONMEBABY 8/1
# 2 FLEXATI 9/5
# 3 INTIMIDATION 5/2

DREAMONMEBABY looks very good to best this group of horses and is a decent value-based bet given the 8/1 line. Don't let this gelding slip past you. Could win at a juicy mutuel. In this field, this horse is at the top in earnings per start in dirt route contests. He has posted very good numbers under today's conditions and ought to fare well against this field. FLEXATI - Looks formidable to be up on the lead at the first call. Could best this field based on the Equibase speed fig - 87 - of his last race. INTIMIDATION - Might best this group of horses in this race here, showing respectable figures of late. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group of horses in this race recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Turfway Park

03/04/21, TP, Race 2, 6.46 ET
03/04/21,TP,2,1M [Dirt] 1:35:00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $10,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 120 lbs. Claiming Price $7,500.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Next Time You Win	2/1	Bejarano R	Cox Brad H.	SFEL	303	27.72	1.32/$1
097.2444	5	Faded Rose	9/5	Parker D L	Ward Wesley A.	TW	303	27.39	1.32/$1
096.3882	9	Kiki's Lulu Rose	10/1	Morales E	Waltz Brian	C	303	27.72	1.32/$1
096.1040	6	Quarantina	5/1	Corrales G	Maker Michael J.	J	303	27.72	1.32/$1
095.2616	10	Sunflower Road	20/1	Hernandez R M	Meah Anna		303	27.72	1.32/$1
095.0139	4	The Dutch Angle	20/1	McKee J	Chapman James K.		303	27.72	1.32/$1
094.0609	2	Mi Enlace	12/1	Miranda R	Wittek Karyn		303	27.72	1.32/$1
093.4093	7	Emmyrates	15/1	Gonzalez S	Campbell Donald H.		303	27.72	1.32/$1
093.4026	8	Tempereya	20/1	Cannon D	Meah Anna		303	27.72	1.32/$1
091.3626	1	Comeonbetsy	20/1	Reyes F	Campbell Donald H.		303	27.72	1.32/$1
089.9212	11	Golden Glass	20/1	Serpa A	Frederick Edward Harri		303	27.39	1.32/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 0.00, ROI 0.00/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -2.7556
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]Not3YOIn3UPRace

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