Monday 2/15/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-15-2021, 08:38 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (521) Houston Rockets at (522) Washington Wizards
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: February 15, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Houston Rockets ML +100
John Wall's first return to Washington since that big trade deal and you can expect a best effort from the veteran PG here as he wasn't particularly happy with Washington's treatment of him during the negotiations.
Even without that added motivation here, we have the Rockets winning by 5 by our numbers, so with them actually catching points in this one, it presents some compelling value on taking the underdog in this spot.
Take the Houston Rockets on the moneyline in a game we expect them to win outright in on Monday at Washington.
PLAY: HOUSTON ROCKETS ML +100

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-15-2021, 08:38 AM

Brian Bitler - NHL - Mon, Feb 15 at 7:38 PM
Brian’s 10* NHL Executive Order

Chicago Blackhawks vs Detroit Red Wings

Chicago Blackhawks -135 (BetAnySports)

This game features the 7-5 Chicago Blackhawks and the 4-10 Detroit Red Wings. Too much attention paid to the Red Wings due to their fluke win on Saturday at the Predators. Thanks to that win we get a nice looking line for the Blackhawks who have been a real surprise early on this season and that is thanks to a shinning young goalie named Kevin Lankinen. Look for him to have another stand out game tonight as both teams are coming off a win. Blackhawks have owned the Red Wings over the last handful of games no reason for that trend to not continue. Blackhawks are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Investment of 10 units on rotation #13 Blackhawks

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-15-2021, 08:39 AM

Mitchell Newman

Monday night comp play will be to play the Nets and the Kings to do what they have been doing and that is land Over the total.

Brooklyn just played their Friday night contest at Golden State Over the total by 5 points as the Nets are now on a 7-2 Over run their last 9 games and for the season Brooklyn is 20-8 Over the posted price!

Sacramento is not as Over-centric as their opponents, but the Kings do a good job posting the points, as they have been Over the total in their last pair of games and in 4 of their last 6 heading into this Monday night affair.

For the season, the Kings are 16-10 Over the posted price.

Both teams score big numbers and allow big numbers and the last 2 series meetings on the Kings hardwood have indeed landed Over the posted price.

With both teams playing little defense - Nets allowing 117.5 points per game, while the Kings allow 118.7 points per game - go ahead and look for the points to add up in a hurry on Monday night.

Brooklyn-Sacramento Over the total.

3* BROOKLYN-SACRAMENTO OVER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-15-2021, 12:38 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 4	Pick 4 (4-7) / Pick 3 (4-6) / Exacta / Trifecta / Daily Double 4-5
Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 57 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 4:00P
FOR NATIVE FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 30, 2021 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 15, 2021 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 15, 2020 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. BELLO SONERO is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BELLO SONERO: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SOLITARIO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TREN URBANO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GABY'S CROWN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	BELLO SONERO	5/1	3/1
1	SOLITARIO	7/2	7/1
2	TREN URBANO	2/1	8/1
4	GABY'S CROWN	9/5	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	BELLO SONERO	6	5/1	Front-runner	60	55	51.6	47.4	44.4
1	SOLITARIO	1	7/2	Stalker	57	54	47.4	48.4	41.4
2	TREN URBANO	2	2/1	Stalker	57	56	38.7	38.0	34.5
4	GABY'S CROWN	4	9/5	Trailer	58	54	37.6	49.2	41.7
3	HUYE ULLOA	3	3/1	Trailer	48	36	31.4	38.8	29.3
5	SOL DE BORINQUEN	5	5/2	Trailer	43	33	20.4	31.8	20.3
7	HERALDO	7	4/1	Trailer	41	20	17.8	14.4	0.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-15-2021, 12:38 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs

Louisiana Downs - Race 5	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Maiden • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 65 • Purse: $5,300 • Post: 2:36P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * EYESAFAMOUSGIRL: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. FEATURE MR LOUISIANA: Horse ranks in the top three in Trac kMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	EYESAFAMOUSGIRL	8/5	7/2
2	FEATURE MR LOUISIANA	7/2	9/2
1	CANELO BOK	10/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CANELO BOK	1	10/1	Average/Trouble-prone	58	57	4.5	0.0	0.0
2	FEATURE MR LOUISIANA	2	7/2	Average	68	58	3.8	0.0	0.0
4	EYESAFAMOUSGIRL	4	8/5	Slow	66	67	9.1	0.0	0.0
6	JESS TURNER LOOSE	6	12/1	Slow	0	0	8.1	0.0	0.0
7	FIFTYSHADESOFROSE	7	12/1	Average	64	48	5.7	0.0	0.0
9	WAVE CARVER RETURNS	9	15/1	Average	67	45	6.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: D CHISEL (9/2) [Jockey: Alvarez David A - Trainer: Barron Jose D], SHEZA MONEY TRAIN (15/1) [Jockey: Torres Juan M - Trainer: Mason Gary Shane], TF DYNASTY JESS (6/1) [Jockey: Segura Cesar - Trainer: Keith Lanny].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-15-2021, 12:40 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 69

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 WENEEDTOTALK 3/1
# 5 HARPER BEE 6/1
# 8 LANEYS LOVE 8/1

WENEEDTOTALK appears to be the bet in here. Displays reliable Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this field. With a competitive 58 Equibase speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this outing. The average class figure of 64 makes this horse hard to beat. HARPER BEE - She has been racing solidly recently while recording sharp Speed Figures. Must be carefully examined - I like the numbers from the last outing. LANEYS LOVE - Strong average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races make this racer a solid contender. She has been running very well and the Equibase Speed Figs are among the most respectable in this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-15-2021, 12:41 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 69

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 WENEEDTOTALK 3/1
# 5 HARPER BEE 6/1
# 8 LANEYS LOVE 8/1

WENEEDTOTALK appears to be the bet in here. Displays reliable Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this field. With a competitive 58 Equibase speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this outing. The average class figure of 64 makes this horse hard to beat. HARPER BEE - She has been racing solidly recently while recording sharp Speed Figures. Must be carefully examined - I like the numbers from the last outing. LANEYS LOVE - Strong average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races make this racer a solid contender. She has been running very well and the Equibase Speed Figs are among the most respectable in this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-15-2021, 12:41 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #3 - Post: 1:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#4 AIDAN'S HARBOR (ML=2/1)

AIDAN'S HARBOR - Looking at the pps on all of these ponies, this is the only one to stalk. Worth a good look at this one. Taking a trip down the class scale; has the class ability to make his presence felt. This horse gets a barn change by way of a claim out of the last race. Trainer here is terrific off of the claim, so no reason why this pony won't have a chance at a big race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 WILL YA WIN SUM (ML=4/1), #2 INQUISITEUR (ML=5/1), #5 DAKOTA (ML=5/1),

WILL YA WIN SUM - This gelding is always around, but just doesn't win. Difficult to bet on him on the win end. This vulnerable equine will probably bounce off of the last strong outing. INQUISITEUR - Really had to show me much more last time around the track. Never made much of an impact. You always believe this horse has a shot to be victorious, but he just misses regularly. DAKOTA - Tough to bet on this less than sharp equine in today's event. Make him show you something in a sprint contest before you wager on him in a race of 6 furlongs.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 AIDAN'S HARBOR to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	4 with [1,7] with [1,2,3,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	4 with [1,2,3,7] with [1,2,3,7] with [1,2,3,7] Total Cost: $24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-15-2021, 12:42 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Aqueduct - Race #7 - Post: 4:25pm - Stakes - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 111 Hollie Hughes S.

Rating:

#2 BIG ENGINE (ML=5/1)
#3 OUR LAST BUCK (ML=9/5)

BIG ENGINE - State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this horse's move into the 'state bred' class today should make him tough in here. A little change in scenery has got to do this one well. Reading the past performance lines, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle at multiple tracks. OUR LAST BUCK - This entrant could be tough in today's contest, especially since Carmouche rode last time out and now should be more familiar with this one. The way this event sets up this gelding will be in the catbird's seat when they start the running for real. This gelding registered a nice speed fig of 102 in his last race. That speed figure should be high enough to win today. This one has increased his speed figs in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking note of.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TRIBECCA (ML=2/1), #5 AMUNDSON (ML=5/2), #4 MY BOY TATE (ML=6/1),

TRIBECCA - Doubtful that this horse will finish better than he did last time out of the box when placing fourth. Unlikely for this one to make a winning move with no success lately in a short distance contest. The speed figure last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a likely underlay. AMUNDSON - Has been beaten as the favorite the last two times. A repeat is probably in store. MY BOY TATE - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything in the last couple of outings. Finished fourth in his most recent effort with a pedestrian speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this bunch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 BIG ENGINE on top if we're getting at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-15-2021, 01:06 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Aqueduct - Race #7 - Post: 4:25pm - Stakes - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 111 Hollie Hughes S.

Rating:

#2 BIG ENGINE (ML=5/1)
#3 OUR LAST BUCK (ML=9/5)

BIG ENGINE - State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this horse's move into the 'state bred' class today should make him tough in here. A little change in scenery has got to do this one well. Reading the past performance lines, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle at multiple tracks. OUR LAST BUCK - This entrant could be tough in today's contest, especially since Carmouche rode last time out and now should be more familiar with this one. The way this event sets up this gelding will be in the catbird's seat when they start the running for real. This gelding registered a nice speed fig of 102 in his last race. That speed figure should be high enough to win today. This one has increased his speed figs in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking note of.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TRIBECCA (ML=2/1), #5 AMUNDSON (ML=5/2), #4 MY BOY TATE (ML=6/1),

TRIBECCA - Doubtful that this horse will finish better than he did last time out of the box when placing fourth. Unlikely for this one to make a winning move with no success lately in a short distance contest. The speed figure last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a likely underlay. AMUNDSON - Has been beaten as the favorite the last two times. A repeat is probably in store. MY BOY TATE - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything in the last couple of outings. Finished fourth in his most recent effort with a pedestrian speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this bunch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 BIG ENGINE on top if we're getting at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-15-2021, 01:06 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Stakes - 6.5f on the Turf. Purse: $75000 Class Rating: 106

WISHING WELL S. - FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A GRADED STAKE SINCE JULY 1, 2020. FREE NOMINATIONS. $1,400 SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATIONS ARE DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. $400 TO ENTER AND AN ADDITIONAL $400 TO START WITH $75,000 ADDED. THE ADDED MONIES AND ALL FEES TO BE DIVIDED 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 12% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, AND

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 LIGHTHOUSE 5/2
# 4 AQUA SEAFORM SHAME 5/1
# 6 SUPERSTITION 4/1

I give my vote to LIGHTHOUSE here. Handler has very solid win rate (25 percent) at this distance and surface. With Hernandez on top her, this filly ought to be able to break out sharply in this race. This filly has been constatntly running well in her latest outings. AQUA SEAFORM SHAME - Make a note that this entrant runs now going off Lasix today. With a solid jock who has won at a respectable 15 percent clip over the last month. This has to be one of the top selections. SUPERSTITION - Has very strong front-end speed and will probably fare admirably versus this group. With a very good 99 speed rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-15-2021, 01:09 PM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds

02/15/21, FG, Race 5, 2.56 CT
02/15/21,FG,5,1M [Dirt] 1:36:00 CLAIMING. Purse $20,000 (includes up to $4,000 Other Sources) (plus up to $3,000 ALBSS-Accredited LA Bred Slot Supplement). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 15, 2020. Weight, 123 lbs. Non-winners of a race at a mile or over since January 15 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $5,000 (Louisiana Bred Races For $5,000 Or Less Not Considered In Eligibility).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	4	Two Mikes N Doc G	4/1	Graham J	Faucheux Ron	JTSW	346	36.13	1.20/$1
097.7116	8	Firewater Jake(b-)	6/1	Pedroza M	Flint Bernard S.	E	346	36.13	1.20/$1
097.6433	7	Catalogue	9/2	Hernandez. Jr. B J	Hartman Chris A.	F	346	36.13	1.20/$1
097.0706	3	King of Candy	9/2	Beschizza A	Sharp Joe		346	36.13	1.20/$1
096.3780	2	Citali	7/2	Murrill M	Rodriguez Eduardo	C	346	36.13	1.20/$1
096.3331	5	Gato Americano	6/1	Kellenberger K	Duhon Joe O.		346	36.13	1.20/$1
094.1560	1	Fleetway	6/1	Chavez O	Cowan Jon M.	L	346	36.13	1.20/$1
090.3414	6	Mosta Flyin	30/1	Garcia D G	Gomez Jorge		346	36.13	1.20/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 30.48, ROI 0.98/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -2.2884
[Category]Condition
[AllCategories]RaceDistanceRoute

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-15-2021, 01:33 PM

Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

February 15, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

Pompano Park has a 13-race card scheduled with two Pick 4 sequences and both have a $30,000 guaranteed pool. My focus will be on the 0.50 Late Pick 4 which begins in Race 10.

David Miller was the driver with the hottest hands on Sunday with three wins. Trainer Paul Holzman led the conditioners with two pictures.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

2-The Lionking As (5-1)-Got the pocket ride in last but the leader stopped in the stretch. Should be sitting on top or in the 2-hole behind the morning line chalk #4. Either trip could work out well.
4-In Secret (9/5)-Bumps up and comes off a dominant win. Drew well and Miller could be taking another picture with a smooth trip.

Race 11

1-Rockin Machine (9/2)-Steps-up after drawing off by 6 lengths to beat the $15k claimers. Will need a top effort but this post draw should keep him close to the program chalk #7. Looks to be worth a swing in case the favorite doesn't bring his fastball.
7-Ulikeanyother (2-1)-Form has been great in the last 6 races and is the one to beat again. Winner in 5 of 9 at the Pomp should be tough.

Race 12

3-Try Try Again (7/2)-Three wins in 6 starts this year after going 0-17 in 2019. Will use as MacDonald could get a cozy trip with this post draw.
6-Keegan Ho (6-1)-Eight-year-old is an honest horse and Plano may look to come off cover. There could be a couple inside who will go for the top and if the 7 leaves the pace could be lively. Then chances for success go up.
7-Timon As (7/2)-Looked like a winner going into the last turn but Wrenn made a careless error going inside of a pylon and was taken down. Should be a player here again but might not get to the half in only 57 seconds.

Race 13

3-Chick Magnet (7/2)-Drops to the softest spot this meet. Doesn't have much gate speed but Wallis should be able to work a trip versus these and roll off cover. The 7 & 9 will probably leave and there could be an honest pace.
7-Poof Daddy (5/2)-Form has been dull but this is about as low as Daddy can drop. Has the gate speed to get on the engine and not look back.
9-Keystone Real Deal (3-1)-This 11-year-old hasn't seen the winner's circle since at least 2019 possibly longer. But someone has to win this race and has been passing foes down the lane. Could be in the hunt with the right trip and might be overlooked at the windows.

0.50 Late Pick 4

2,4/1,7/3,6,7/3,7,9
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-15-2021, 01:33 PM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 2/15/21

February 15, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Annangel; 3-An Eddie Surprise; 4-Gypsy Blu

Forecast: Annangel sports the route-to-sprint angle that we always like, in addition to having shown her preference for this shorter trip with a maiden victory over five furlongs last summer during her English 3-year-old campaign. Exiting the Lady Shamrock S. and realistically spotted in this $50,000 seller, the R. Baltas-trained filly is reunited with “win” rider J. Hernandez and projects to be forwardly placed throughout with every chance to seal the deal. She’s 4-1 on the morning line and at that price offers good value in the win pool. For protection in rolling exotic play, you should consider An Eddie Surprise and Gypsy Blu. The former, a veteran older mare with five previous scores and a stakes win over the Santa Anita turf course, remains above her claim level in a sign of confidence by P. Miller and seems certain to be bearing down late under F. Prat. ‘Blu, in the frame in eight of 10 career outings over the local lawn, has solid, consistent speed figures and is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite in what is her first ever start for a tag.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Va Va Vegas; 3-Big Story

Forecast: Big Story chased home subsequently graded stakes-placed The Chosen Vron in a hot, highly-rated maiden sprint earlier this meeting and returns following a series of sharp workouts in a similar extended sprint for state-bred sophomores. The Mr. Big gelding has the perfect stalking style for this distance, is a first-time Lasix user, and should be prominent throughout in a race that projects to have moderate early splits. He main rival (and the morning line favorite at 6/5) is Va Va Vegas, improving (according to his numbers) after finishing second in his first two starts but beaten at odds-on without apparent excuse in both. The Empire Way colt continues to train well for B. Baffert and may inherit the role as the controlling speed. We’ll prefer Big Story on top but have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:36 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Lavender; 7-Colombian Gold

Forecast: This restricted (nw-3) $30,000 turf miler for older fillies and mares doesn’t have much in it, so we’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Lavender, a two-time winner over the local lawn, is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite and probably won’t offer much value at that price, but the P. Miller-trained mare makes a major switch to J. Rosario while dropping out of a tougher starter’s $50,000 allowance affair, stretches out to her preferred trip, and appears capable of producing the last run. Colombian Gold, also with a pair of victories over the Santa Anita sod, projects to be on or near a very soft pace (if her connections want her to be), even though she’s always been primarily a closing type. F. Prat stays aboard, knows her well, and always has been skilled in adapting to the race flow.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Herd Immunity; 5-Hot Box

Forecast: Hot Box returns to his winning level and a repeat of his five length score at Los Alamitos when competing for this $32,000 tag two runs back will be good enough to handle this assignment. The Heat Shield gelding failed to fire when pitted against starter allowance optional claiming company here last month, but a recent good workout indicates he’s in fine shape and should find himself on or near the lead throughout. Herd Immunity, away since last September and making his first start since being gelded, shows a steady series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs to have him fit and ready, and with F. Prat taking the call the P. Miller-trained 3-year-old appears well-meant in his first outing for a tag. The son of Union Rags won over this track as a 2-year-old in his debut, so we know he can fire fresh.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:42 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Cargo; 10-Minehunter

Forecast: Cargo, a fast-working first-timer from the P. D’Amato barn, looks well-spotted to win at first asking in this six furlong grass sprint for maiden state-bred 3-year-olds. Obviously bred for grass, the son of Point of Entry has been given a solid foundation of drills, including a nice gate move (5f, 1:00 2/hg) just five days ago that points him out. With F. Prat taking the call for a hot outfit, he’s the logical morning line favorite at 5/2. Minehunter was unplaced in his debut in a similar spot last month but the Slew’s Tiznow gelding has done some excellent work in the a.m. since then and seems sure to improve with the addition of blinkers. Despite his outside draw, the M. Puype-trained sophomore may be quick enough to get over and secure a good pace pressing trip, maybe even make the lead. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Cargo.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:14 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Fenway; 5-Star Sailor

Forecast: Fenway was supposed to be a good thing in his debut last month, leaving at even money in a maiden special weight main track miler following a series of excellent a.m. workouts. The son of Into Mischief cut out hot fractions to the turn, then completely fell apart, but we’re expecting an infinitely better performance today from the B. Baffert-trained colt, who continues to impress in the a.m. and shows the critical blinkers off angle designed to help him switch off during the early stages. If he’s going to be a serious 3-year-old, today would be a good time to show it. Star Sailor was part of the pace in his most recent outing and held on reasonably well to finish second, beaten just under four lengths. The Union Rags colt probably will be patiently handled today and on paper appears to be the dangerous of the closer/stalker contingent.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:46 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Lighthouse; 7-Oleksandra

Forecast: Oleksandra exits six consecutive graded stakes races and today finds class relief while dropping into a listed affair against a group of fillies and mares that she should be able to handle. The veteran daughter of Animal Kingdom (she’s seven now) defeated the boys three races back when winning the Jaipur S.-G1 in New York and recent workouts indicate the N. Drysdale-trained mare isn’t too far removed from that form. Over a course that plays to her closing style, we’re expecting she’ll produce a winning late kick under J. Rosario. Lighthouse was a bit below her best when third in the recent Las Cienegas S.-G3 last month in her first start since September. Assuming she needed the race, the daughter of Mizzen Mast can step forward today and give the favorite a target to run at.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:20 PT Grade: C+
Use:1-Awhitesportscoat; 5-Horse Greedy; 6-Octopus

Forecast: The Monday nightcap is an extended sprint for $16,000 older claimers. We’ll go three deep and hope to get home a price. Awhitesportscoat, listed at 8-1 on the morning line, makes his first start since being haltered by K. Mulhall, whose stats with the first-off-the-claim angle in a limited sample catch the eye. A four time winner at this extended sprint distance, the veteran Hansen gelding will need some luck from his rail post, but with a patient ride and clear sailing through the lane he’s capable on his best day of tagging the leaders. Octopus is racing in good form, though he’s never really been too dependable when favored (and he’ll probably be that today). F. Prat stays aboard and will have the son of Shackleford in the firing line throughout. Horse Greedy, an ex-class horse making his first start since behind claimed by P. Miller (powerful with this angle), is reunited with “win rider” J. Hernandez while dropping to his lowest level. He’s clearly nowhere near what he once was, but in this league, he has to be respected.
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