Thursday 2/11/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-11-2021, 09:11 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Outright Winner
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: February 11, 2021 11AM EST
Play: Will Zalatoris to Win AT&T Pebble Beach (+1900)
AT&T Pebble Beach
Outright Winner
Once again I’m going to target young Will Zalatoris. I said it about him a few weeks ago, it’s only a matter of time before this young prodigy wins and with a rather weak field this week, now is as good of a time as any. In eight starts this year, Zalatoris has missed just one cut while finishing Top 10 in half of those starts. In fact he has only finished outside the Top 20 once time in the seven events he made the weekend.
Zalatoris ranks 12th on Tour in Driving distance which isn’t going to help him much here as Pebble does not play to lengthy hitters, but that’s OK because Zalatoris also ranked #4 Strokes Gained Approach, #4 SG Tee to Green and #6 Total SG to go along with the 6th best scoring average. He had another strong showing last week in Phoenix but couldn’t get anything going on Sunday yet still finished T17.
Another player worthy of a look and is not getting any respect from oddsmakers is Peter Malnati at 100-1 to win and +650 for a Top 10. Malnati has two Top 15 finishes in his last three starts and had back to back top 5 finishes in the fall. He has the 19th best scoring average on Tour and ranks #4 in Strokes Gained Putting. He can be dangerous any week because of his putter and I really like his price this week in a light field.
For DFS players Zalatoris is a must at $9,900 at Draftkings and $11,200 at Fanduel as he will be in contention on Sunday and Malnati is a steal at $7,800 at Draftkings and $9,400 at Fanduel. Make sure to work your rosters around those two this week.
TAKE WILL ZALATORIS TO WIN AT&T PEBBLE BEACH +1900 and TOP 5 +450

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-11-2021, 09:12 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Cameron Davis vs Rickie Fowler
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: February 11, 2021 12PM EST
Play: Cameron Davis (-115)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Tournament Matchup
Another week and another fade of Rickie Fowler here. I went against him last week and he delivered by missing the cut. He has now missed the cut in three of his nine starts this season and has failed to crack the Top-20 in any event. Going back to last season, he had another four missed cuts in eight starts after the restart in June, but he did at least have two Top-20’s.
Statistically he can’t hit greens and he can’t putt. He is ranked #148 on Tour this season in Strokes Gained Approach as he is #114 in Greens in Regulation, while he is even worse on the greens, ranking #199 on Strokes Gained Putting. A recipe of not hitting greens and not making putts is not going to get your very far on the PGA Tour.
Compare that to long-hitting Cameron Davis who has made seven cuts in eight starts this year with two Top-10’s. He ranks #14 on Tour in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, #34 Tee to Green and #42 Total Strokes Gained. His only weakness is Around the Greens where he ranks #186.
After missing his first four cuts after the restart, he made his last four cuts with two Top-20’s to finish last season giving him a run of 11/12 cuts made and making it to the weekend could simply be enough to beat Fowler.
You can also find Fowler matched up against Kevin Streelman this week and considering Streelman has finished in the Top-20 the last five years at Pebble and Top-10 in the last three years, he is another good bet against a struggling Fowler.
TAKE CAMERON DAVIS OVER RICKIE FOWLER & KEVIN STREELMAN OVER RICKIE FOWLER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-11-2021, 09:12 AM

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (721) Iowa State at (722) Kansas
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: February 11, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Total Over 143.0 (-110)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-11-2021, 09:12 AM

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (723) Eastern Washington at (724) Montana State
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: February 11, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Total Under 151.0 (-110)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-11-2021, 09:13 AM

Oskeim Sports

Event: (729) Weber State at (730) Montana
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: February 11, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Montana +1.0 (-110)
The line in this game is fair as my math model favors Weber State by 0.53 points but we are getting a Montana squad at home in a role in which it excels. The Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games as home underdogs and the home team is 17-7 ATS in the previous 24 meetings in this series.
Montana returns home following four consecutive road tilts which is significant in that the Grizzlies are 47-29 ATS at home off two or more consecutive road affairs since 1997, including 5-2 ATS in the last seven under these circumstances. Let's also note that Montana is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven February clashes against .501 or greater opposition.
Montana plays excellent defense, rating 5.7 points per game better than average this season (65.0 points per game to teams that would combine to average 70.7 points per game against a mediocre defense). The Grizzlies' defense is even better at home where they are limiting opponents to a mere 59.0 points per game.
The matchup is favorable to Montana from a defensive standpoint as Weber State is extremely efficient from beyond the arc (41.0% 3-PT FG%) but the Grizzlies are limiting foes to just 29.8% from three-point territory this season. I also like the fact that Weber State's perimeter shooting drops precipitously away from home where the Wildcats are 35.5% from three.
Grab the live home underdog as Oskeim Sports' Free Pick Winner for Thursday, February 11, 2021.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-11-2021, 09:13 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (537) Philadelphia 76ers at (538) Portland Trail Blazers
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: February 11, 2021 10PM EST
Play: Total Over 229.5 (-110)
We like the Over 229.5 on Thursday between Philadelphia and Portland.
Portland's shooting percentage was way down in Tuesday's win over Orlando, shooting just 38.9%, and we like them to get back on track here offensively against a team they stack up well against in the 76ers.
Philadelphia got dropped against these same Trail Blazers last week at home by 16 points, so we expect a best effort from also tonight.
Philadelphia are 6th in the league on overall pace and 3rd in the league on fastbreak points, so expect a high tempo game tonight that goes over the total.
PLAY: OVER 229.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-11-2021, 09:14 AM

Hunter Price

Feb 11 '21, 12:45 PM in 3h
Soccer | St Etienne vs Sochaux
Play on: St Etienne +119 at linepros

1* Free Pick on St Etienne +119

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-11-2021, 09:14 AM

Info Plays

Feb 11 '21, 3:00 PM in 5h
Soccer | Levante vs Ath Bilbao
Play on: Ath Bilbao -104 at linepros

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Ath Bilbao -104

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-11-2021, 09:14 AM

Steve Janus

Feb 11 '21, 5:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-B | Purdue vs Minnesota
Play on: Minnesota -2 -110 at Mirage

1* Free Sharp Play on Minnesota -2 -110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-11-2021, 10:55 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 4	Daily Double (Races 4-5) / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) /Superfecta (.10 min.) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Claiming $10,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 2:16P
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 11 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $7,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BAUDETTE BLIZZARD: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HALOSTAR: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-run ner with an inside post position. CAFE DU MONDE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MUCHO MARVIN: Today is a sprint and the hors e's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
9	BAUDETTE BLIZZARD	2/1	5/1
4	HALOSTAR	7/2	5/1
1	CAFE DU MONDE	9/2	6/1
6	MUCHO MARVIN	12/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	HALOSTAR	4	7/2	Front-runner	81	75	68.2	56.2	48.2
9	BAUDETTE BLIZZARD	9	2/1	Front-runner	79	81	55.2	63.0	58.5
3	MY TY FU PEG	3	8/1	Stalker	71	68	59.5	52.3	40.3
7	OUR PRINCE	7	20/1	Stalker	71	63	52.2	58.2	43.2
6	MUCHO MARVIN	6	12/1	Stalker	66	67	47.0	65.6	55.6
2	MIDNIGHT BAYOU	2	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	66	42.6	64.4	54.9
8	UNWANTED INTRUDER	8	6/1	Trailer	75	66	24.0	64.4	58.4
5	MY BOOK	5	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	84	83	41.2	50.4	36.9
1	CAFE DU MONDE	1	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	102	81	40.0	68.6	58.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-11-2021, 10:56 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park - Race 1	$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Bet 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 1-5)
Maiden Claiming $16,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 73 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 1:10P
(RAIL AT 48 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE FURLONGS)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. TREASURED NIKKY is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * BAHAMIAN RHAPSODY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or a n "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. EXACT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest avera ge Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
9	BAHAMIAN RHAPSODY	4/1	5/2
3	EXACT	7/5	5/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	PRETZEL	5	10/1	Front-runner	59	50	58.0	39.2	26.7
8	TROUBLE MAKING	8	12/1	Front-runner	0	0	54.8	42.2	33.7
2	SHOULDAKNOWNBETTER	2	5/1	Stalker	55	53	60.9	49.4	37.4
3	EXACT	3	7/5	Stalker	77	65	60.7	62.6	59.1
9	BAHAMIAN RHAPSODY	9	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	69	60.4	60.4	56.4
1	TREASURED NIKKY	1	9/2	Trailer	55	51	44.2	46.6	34.1
4	SIP'N DIP	4	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	117.2	43.7	35.7
7	LADY TAPATIA	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	65	67.4	40.8	30.3
6	ELUSIVE EYES	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	38.7	21.1	3.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-11-2021, 10:56 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Allowance - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $29000 Class Rating: 72

FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 11 ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 PEPPA STARR 2/1
# 3 TALENT EXPECTED 5/2
# 2 JUBA'S HOUSE 8/1

PEPPA STARR seems to be the wager in here. Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt sprint events in this group. Has run soundly when racing a dirt sprint race. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Delgado will probably have this filly in excellent position to win the contest. TALENT EXPECTED - Her 70 average has this filly with among the strongest Equibase Speed Figures in here. The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a major improvement for this filly. JUBA'S HOUSE - Casey has a formidable 20 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. With a decent 64 Equibase Speed Fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-11-2021, 10:58 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Oaklawn Park - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 56

Rating:

#3 FRENCHIE FROU FROU (ML=7/2)

FRENCHIE FROU FROU - Using this jock/trainer combination is a good choice. Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier bunch than in the last race at Turfway Park.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1A SLEWACHIT (ML=2/1), #1 CINCO WEST (ML=2/1), #2 SOUPER CAPACITY (ML=5/2),

SLEWACHIT - Doesn't appear to have enough positive qualities to support the value. CINCO WEST - I find it hard to bet on any vulnerable equine in a short distance affair if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last 60 days. SOUPER CAPACITY - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some success lately in sprint events in order to support her.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #3 FRENCHIE FROU FROU on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-11-2021, 10:59 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Sam Houston - Race #3 - Post: 5:00pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,250 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#1 SENORITA TAPIT (ML=8/1)

SENORITA TAPIT - On January 15th this mare shipped in to take the money and looks good right back. Utilizing this jockey/handler combination is a good decision. A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a strong outing is a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MARTZ'S MAE (ML=6/5), #3 SNEAKY DIANNE (ML=5/2), #7 GOSPEL MARGIE (ML=4/1),

MARTZ'S MAE - Hasn't raced or had any works since Jan 15th. Not much value on this morning-line choice. SNEAKY DIANNE - If you keep playing these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down often. GOSPEL MARGIE - The speed rating last race out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this animal as a likely underpriced equine.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SENORITA TAPIT - I'm betting that this mare is going to love the stretch-out to 1 mile. Put your money on her as well.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #1 SENORITA TAPIT on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

Thursday 2/11/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 2/11/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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