Service Plays Super Bowl Sunday 2/7/21

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-01-2021, 03:43 PM

3 days ago

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-01-2021, 03:52 PM

R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
12:32 PM

KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY | 02/07 | 6:30 PM EST
UNDER 56.5
This total has the chance to close as one of the biggest numbers in Super Bowl history, and at 56.5, it sits just below the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl in 2017 that went Over. But here's the thing: that game stayed Under during regulation and was well on its way toward cashing the Under late in the third quarter before the Patriots' improbable rally. If you count that one as an Under in regulation, the last seven Super Bowls with a total of 50+ have stayed Under dating back to 2001. We just typically don't see fireworks early on as teams stay tight after all the pageantry leading up to kickoff, and I think the value is certainly on the Under as a result.

+1525 80-58-5 IN LAST 143 NFL PICKS
+600 6-0 IN LAST 6 KC O/U PICKS

R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
12:21 PM

KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY | 02/07 | 6:30 PM EST
KANSAS CITY -3
The Bucs have put together an incredible run thanks in large part to their GOAT quarterback, but Tom Brady has also had his moments of struggle, throwing picks on three straight drives in the NFC title game and letting the Packers back in the door. The Chiefs have been absolutely dominant with Patrick Mahomes under center during the playoffs, erasing any worries about their ho-hum second half. Even in Tampa, I love the Chiefs to get the win thanks to a better overall offense, the best coaching staff in the league, and a defense that has come to play during the postseason. I don't mind laying 3 or 3.5, but the value will likely be on the moneyline if you wait.

+1525 80-58-5 IN LAST 143 NFL PICKS
+823 24-14-4 IN LAST 42 TB ATS PICKS
+190 4-2-1 IN LAST 7 KC ATS PICKS

Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
11:02 AM

KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY | 02/07 | 6:30 PM EST
KANSAS CITY -3
Although the Chiefs won't have LT Eric FIsher to help slow the Bucs' fierce pass rush, tackles Mike Remmers and Andrew Wylie aren't going to be bludgeoned the way the Packers' tackles were last week. The Nov. 29 meeting in Tampa ended in a 27-24 K.C. win; it wasn't really close, though. The Chiefs rolled up 543 yards and led 27-10 entering the fourth quarter. Look for Frank Clark, who sacked Josh Allen twice, to have another big day in the Super Bowl as K.C. repeats -- and covers.

+845 22-12-2 IN LAST 36 NFL ATS PICKS
+1265 16-3 IN LAST 19 KC ATS PICKS
+275 4-1 IN LAST 5 TB ATS PICKS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-01-2021, 03:53 PM

Doug Knudson

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL)
10* GOY Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5

My Math Models Made Tampa Bay -1

The Question is, NOT who's the Better team, BUT who is the Hotter team?! To me, this game is approached differently then ANY other game I handicap! Researching the past 40+ Superbowls - I have found the hotter team is the single most important factor to predicting the Big Game ATS Winner - through my analysis and weighting the factors I use to determine who the "hotter" team is, ALL indicators are pointing towards Tampa Bay! Also my numbers spit out that the Superbowl has posted the WRONG Favorite - this all adds up to a - 10* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR!

>p>included some trends that also support this play - but again, the "Hotter" team angle and my Numbers are my #1 predictors!!

Teams with worse win percentages (including playoffs) have gone 13-1 ATS (92.9%) last 14 KC - 16-2 (89%) TB - 14-5 (74%)

The team that lost the regular-season game has won five of the last seven (KC beat TB 27-24)

TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS versus offensive teams - averaging >=6 ypp this season.(KC 6 ypp) TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS versus defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 ypp this season.(KC 5.7 ypp) TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS in all games where the total is greater than 49 this season. (SB Total 56.5) Teams that generated more yardage in the regular season have lost nine straight games SU and ATS. (KC 418 - TB 385) TB Coach Arians is 10-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less (TB +3) in all games he has coached since 1992.

What most stood-out on the injury report (the most important position on a football team) - KC minus OT Schwartz and Fisher Suh, Gholston and Pierre-Paul licking there chops!!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-01-2021, 03:53 PM

Sean Higgs

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 6:30 PM EST
Pick: Money Line: -165 Kansas City Chiefs Play Title: 5* Best Bet

Pick Analysis
Taking the CHIEFS. We had KC last year in the Super Bowl, will take them again here - on the ML. I really have no problem laying -3 -115, but something tells me the refs will be looking at Brady like he signs their checks. Especially as a home dog. Look. I faded both of these guys in Championship Sunday. That being said, I have no problem taking the favorite today. Brady Brady Brady. That is all anyone is talking about. Oh, will he retire if he wins. Guy is the greatest ever. If you had doubts, this season should all but seal that thinking up. Guy is unbelievable. KC though. I dunno. Reigning champs. They have basically played down to their opponents the last 2 months of the season before beating up on the Bills. I guess they can 'flip the switch' and turn it on when needed. We saw last year in this game there is absolutely zero quit in this team. As well as the TB defense has played, I thought SF had as good or better defense. And we saw how that worked out. I also think we have a HC edge, Andy Reid. Guy finally got credit when he won it all But he has been more than solid his career. Let's not forget how great he is off with extra rest and prep time. Guy is cashing over 80%. No starstruck Mahomes looking at Brady. He has faced him in AFC Championship Game. No intimidation factor. The defenses will get a little chippy here. I won't be shocked at an under. I think the game plays out slow to start before things open up. Special Teams of KC i think is a difference maker.. If you are in the NY/NJ/PA region, I will be at the Fan Cave at Bally's Wild West Atlantic City. Come by for a drink or bite to eat. Grab a shirt and make some money. 5* Best Bet KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-01-2021, 03:53 PM

Dave Cokin:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (+100)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-01-2021, 03:53 PM

Spartan

3* KC Chiefs -3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-01-2021, 03:54 PM

Big Al
NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR;

Tampa Bay plus the points

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-01-2021, 09:49 PM

4Deep Bets- Tommy G

PENDING SUPERBOWL BETS

Godwin over 73.5 (5u) MAX

Hill over 88.5 (5u) MAX

Kelce over 98.5 (5u) MAX

Chiefs +500 super bowl Future (5 to win 25)

IF U DONT HAVE FUTURE BET: Chiefs -176 (10u) DOUBLE M

**rocky57** · 02-03-2021, 04:35 PM

PicksWise Sports

NFL
3* Best Bet - Kansas City Chiefs -3
2* Regular Play - Chiefs/Buccaneers Under 56.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-03-2021, 11:27 PM

Marc Lawrence

NFL Super Bowl Release - Sunday Feb 7

NFL - 3* Game 102 - Buccaneers (+3.5)

Edges - Buccaneers: Head coach Bruce Arians is 11-1-1 ATS at home as a non-division dog in his NFL career, including 7-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a double-digit win; and quarterback Tom Brady is 20-4 SU at home in the postseason in his NFL career, including 10-0 against greater than .705 opponents, and Brady is 12-1-1 ATS at home when not favored, including 9-0-1 ATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season … Chiefs: Head coach Andy Reid is 1-8 ATS as a road favorite in his NFL career when coming off consecutive wins and facing a foe coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 0-5 SUATS as a favorite of fewer than 4.5 points; and quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 0-3 as a road favorite versus winning foes coming off consecutive wins, as well as 0-2 ATS as a road favorite when the Chiefs are playing with a week of rest … We cement the call noting that Super Bowl teams with a lesser win percentage than their opponent are 13-1 ATS since 2004, including 13-0 ATS when not coming off a championship game win of 20 or more points. In addition, teams coming off a SU underdog win in their championship game are 14-4-1 ATS since 1980 when facing an opponent not coming off an underdog win, including 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS since 2002. With that, we recommend a strong 3* play on Tampa Bay. Thank you, enjoy the game, and good luck as always.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-05-2021, 05:58 AM

Indian Cowboy Super Bowl Picks
7-Unit Play. #102. Take Under 56 Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Suday @ 6:30pm est)

We roll with the Under here between these two teams. We won the Super Bowl last year, we won the 7* Selection last week on the Chiefs and the goal this week, as in all weeks, is just to have a winning week. For our winning week this week, let's aim for the Under here and you might be able to get a better line as the week goes on as most of the public will be on the Over. I get it that everyone wants to take the Over but we cannot ignore the fact of a couple things. For starters, this is KC defense is led by Coach Steve Spagnuolo who is a fantastic DC coach and he used to be the head coach if you remember of the New York Giants. This is a coach that has seen it all. He knows Tom Brady very well from being up in New York and facing the Patriots and has been in the league forever as well. Tom Brady also quietly threw a couple interceptions at Green Bay and this KC defense is vastly underrated. KC held Cleveland to 17 points and Cleveland could not run on this team at all, they had 18 yards in the first half of rushing. I am not a fan of the Tampa Bay rushing game and I think KC can keep them in check straight up and they will load up the backside to prevent Brady from being able to beat them and let Tampa Bay's running game try to beat them. I also think Tampa Bay will do the same with Mahommes and let KC's rushing game try to beat them and not allow KC to have a lot of passing lanes as they will play back. I think both these defensive coordinators are going to force the opposing offenses to have long sustaining drives. This KC defense held Atlanta's high octaine offense late in the season to 14 points which very few teams could do late (ask the Raiders or Vikings) and this Tampa Bay defense is fantastic at causing turnovers as well and when you put it all together, I think this game will be of slower complexion rather than the high octane offensive showdown that many expect. Look for this game to go Under.

2-Unit Play. Total Rushing Yards for Tom Brady Under 0.5 Yards (-140)

Tom Brady has 6 total yards all year in 19 games. This is a guy that throws the ball away when someone is literally 2 yards away from him because he understands what he means to his team and he understands he can make it up and he is not like a Mahommes who is going to extend the play by any means. Look for this to go Under here.

2-Unit Play. Total Rushing Yards for Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 87.5 Yards (-105)

I simply do not trust that much in the Tampa Bay rushing attack. Between Fournette and Jones, and the fact that Coach Steve Spagnuolo is the DC of KC, I simply cannot see Tampa Bay having huge success in the rushing attack. This team is quite competent in stopping the rush - look at what they did to Cleveland and Buffalo and I have faith that this Tampa Bay front line will be exceptionally talented and get after it here adn they will have success stopping the Run.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-05-2021, 05:59 AM

Jeff Hochman

Tampa Bay +3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-05-2021, 05:59 AM

Mike Missanelli

Chiefs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-05-2021, 05:59 AM

Sharp SB Props

Leonard Fournette over 3.5 receptions -120
Ronald Jones most rushing yards +275
Patrick Mahomes over 18.5 rushing yards -115
Under 10.5 total accepted penalties +100

Service Plays Super Bowl Sunday 2/7/21

Service Plays Super Bowl Sunday 2/7/21

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