Thursday 1/28/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Farmers Insurance Open Outright Winner
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: January 28, 2021 12PM EST
Play: Harris English to Win Farmers Insurance Open (+2500)
Farmers Insurance Open
Hit the outright winner on the European Tour last week with Tyrrell Hatton and was one shot short of winning both tournaments as Patrick Cantlay finished solo 2nd.
Try to get another outright this week and I’m looking at Harris English who won The Sentry Tournament of Champions to kick off the season, then expectedly had a down week at The Sony finishing T32. But it says a lot when a T32 is a down week.
English has five Top 10’s in his last eight starts and he finished insides the Top 20 in six of eight starts to end last season. He has been one of the steadiest golfers since the PGA Tour restart in June.
English is 13th on Tour this season in Total Strokes Gained after finishing 7th last year thanks to killer putting which he has been in the Top 20 each of the last three seasons. Last year he was also 9th in Greens in Regulation and 9th in Scoring Average and is even better to start this year with the 4th best Scoring Average on Tour.
He has good history in this event as well as he has made the cut in seven of his eight starts at Torrey Pines with a playoff loss here in 2015.
Take Harris English to Win the Farmers Insurance Open at +2500 and to Finish Top 10 at +275.
One additional Leaderboard bet for this week is young Will Zalatoris. You can get him +600 to Finish Top 10 and he is a guy much like Hovland, Morikawa or Wolf who will break through and win very early in his career.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Jordan Spieth vs Emiliano Grillo
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: January 28, 2021 12PM EST
Play: Emiliano Grillo (-135)
Farmers Insurance Open
Tournament Matchup
I’ve given out three Matchup winners in three events so far in 2021 and will try to make it four for four here and I’m looking at Emiliano Grillo over Jordan Spieth.
For anyone following golf, Spieth has been a fade for the last year and a half. The former Masters and US Open champion has just been in a tailspin. For such a touted youngster and the guy that was supposed to be the next face of golf, it really has been sad to see. In six events so far this season, he has three missed cuts with a T38 his best finish. This will be his first event since the Masters back in the middle of November.
Grillo meanwhile has been steady. He has played ten events this season, making the cut in nine of those with all but one of those events finishing inside the Top 40. His worst finishes are Spieth’s best finishes right now.
Grillo is 7th on Tour so far this season in Greens in Reg and 28th in scoring average compared to Spieth who is 237th in Greens in Reg and 189th in scoring average.
Simply have to continue to fade Spieth until we see something different from him.
TAKE EMILIANO GRILLO OVER JORDAN SPIETH

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (717) UTEP at (718) Texas San Antonio
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: January 28, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Texas San Antonio -118
Brandon is the #2 Wager Talk capper in 2021 winning 60% of his bets. Get a full week of Brandon's plays for only $49 by using the code ASIA49 at checkout for a limited time.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Event: (747) Belmont at (748) Austin Peay
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: January 28, 2021 8PM EST
Play: Belmont -6.0 (-105)
747 Belmont Bruins at Austin Peay Governors -7, 154.5
The Belmont Bruins opened as 7-point road chalk in this Thursday night Ohio Valley matchup against Austin Peay. Belmont has won 16 of 17 games on the season. Conversely, the inconsistent Governors have failed to cover the number in eight of 11 games this season. The total of 154.5 is more representative of what Belmont is capable of offensively than that of Peay. While the Bruins have gone north of the oddsmakers closing totals in nine of 16 games Austin Peay has stayed under in seven of their eleven handicapped contests.

The Governors have lived and died on the glass this season. They garner a large number of second-chance points due to the 13 offensive boards per game they average. Belmont, however, doesn't miss more shots than they attempt and are money late in games due to their prowess at the charity stripe. Belmont averages 17.6 assists per game, shoot a 75.9 percent free throw percentage, and knockdown 61.7 percent of their two-point percentage The Bruins underlying peripherals result in an average o 83.2 points per game, and in this Ohio Valley showdown the most favorable investment is backing the Belmont Bruins minus the seven-points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oskeim Sports

Event: (751) SIU Edwardsville at (752) SE Missouri State
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: January 28, 2021 9PM EST
Play: SIU Edwardsville +2.5 (-110)
My math model only favors SE Missouri State by 1.29 points in this game and SIU Edwardsville applies to a very good 139-85 ATS system of mine that invests on certain road teams off an upset win over a conference foe versus an opponent entering off two or more consecutive road defeats. That system fits nicely with the fact that SE Missouri State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games following three or more consecutive road tilts.
The Cougars are a profitable 9-3 ATS in their last twelve road games versus teams with a losing home record, 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games as underdogs, and 5-1 ATS in their last six clashes against .499 or worse opposition. Since 1997, SE Missouri State is a money-burning 74-105 ATS off a road loss, 48-75 ATS following a conference road loss, and 23-39 ATS when entering off two or more straight road defeats.
Grab the points with SIU Edwardsville as Oskeim Sports' Free NCAA Basketball Winner for Thursday, January 28.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carmine Bianco

Event: (55) St. Louis Blues at (56) Vegas Golden Knights
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: January 28, 2021 9PM EST
Play: Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 (+165)
NHL - St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights
Quick Synopsis: On Tuesday we were on the Blues +130 and it eventually got there as a winner and we're coming back with the Knights on Thursday. Wasn't the ideal spot for Vegas as they were without a coaching staff due to covid and Robin Lehner had a shaky first period allowing 3 goals to put the Knights in a hole early. Despite that they outplayed the Blues from the 2nd period on outshooting the 29-17 while hitting the post 7 times including OT. Fleury should get the start between the pipes Thursday and we'll look for a more dominate start from the home side.
The play is Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 +165

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

Event: (55) St. Louis Blues at (56) Vegas Golden Knights
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: January 28, 2021 9PM EST
Play: Vegas Golden Knights -150
Round two between the Blues and Golden Knights here in Las Vegas. The Knights rallied from a 4-1 deficit on Tuesday to force overtime before eventually getting edge in the shootout. But anyone watching the game knows full well this should have been a VGK win. The Golden Knights completely dominated the action throughout (83-48 shot attempts, 46-25 shots on goal). But while scoring four goals, they also hit an incredible seven posts. Payback here with the better team in a meaningful revenge mode. A little juicy but sometimes the chalk is simply the way to play and I will be on Vegas to win this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

Event: (209309) Necaxa at (209310) UANL Tigres
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: January 28, 2021 10PM EST
Play: UANL Tigres -0.5 (-146)
We'll go back to Liga MX for the first time in a minute now that the second stage of the Torneo Guard1anes has some legs under it. Every club except defending champion Leon has three games under their belt and this next stage opens with Necaxa visiting Tigres in Monterrey. Necaxa is one of a handful of teams that have surrendered a league-high five goals to date and Tigres is 2-1 with a 2-0 conquest of Leon in their only home game. UANL's lone loss came to first-place Santos Laguna and it rebounded nicely by stomping Atlas last time out. Paraguay international striker Carlos Gonzalez and promising Colombian midfielder Julian Andres Quinones scored and are in excellent form, so we're riding with the home team here. Back UANL Tigres laying the half-goal.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park - Race 10	$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
Claiming $16,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 100 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 5:13P
(RAIL AT 12 FEET). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JULY 28, 2020. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Trailer. PRINCE OF ARABIA is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PRINCE OF ARABIA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three i n average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TWENTY FOUR SEVEN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of t oday's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
7	PRINCE OF ARABIA	7/2	5/2
8	TWENTY FOUR SEVEN	6/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	BATTLE OF BLENHEIM	10	5/1	Stalker	99	90	78.4	91.2	84.7
8	TWENTY FOUR SEVEN	8	6/1	Trailer	94	93	91.0	89.4	81.4
9	BOW TIE AFFAIR	9	12/1	Trailer	98	91	73.8	89.0	76.0
6	GEARHEAD	6	12/1	Trailer	91	85	58.8	86.3	67.8
7	PRINCE OF ARABIA	7	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	103	96	114.2	99.8	96.8
2	DIDNT DO IT	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	89	90	108.1	81.5	65.5
4	ANOTHER	4	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	99	90	97.0	82.8	68.3
5	DERBY CHAMPAGNE	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	96	91	80.0	83.2	73.2
11	LAHINCH	11	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	100	96	78.8	85.9	81.4
1	TOTONO	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	90	68	76.6	85.6	68.6
3	PLAYING HOOKY	3	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	93	86	69.2	82.5	65.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields

Golden Gate Fields - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) $0.20 Golden Pick 6 (Races 2-7) $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $12,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Age 3 • CR: 63 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 1:17P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 15, 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. FLOAT ON is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BEN WADE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. C'MON JENNA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FLOAT ON: Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. Horse's average winning distance is within half a fur long of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
5	BEN WADE	9/5	3/1
4	C'MON JENNA	2/1	4/1
3	FLOAT ON	4/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	FLOAT ON	3	4/1	Front-runner	61	49	51.6	48.2	39.2
4	C'MON JENNA	4	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	72	60	40.8	56.1	53.1
5	BEN WADE	5	9/5	Trailer	71	73	42.2	60.7	58.2
1	HOMEGROWN	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	54	70.4	49.4	40.4
2	QUIPO	2	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	62	56	45.2	52.4	46.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Aqueduct

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 79

FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 JOYCEE HAZ PIZZAZ 8/5
# 5 WARFRONT FIGHTER 2/1
# 1 SCORPION DYNASTY 5/1

My selection in here is JOYCEE HAZ PIZZAZ. Overall the speed figures of this animal look strong in this outing. In this field, this one is at the top in earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. With a nice Equibase class figure average of 84, has one of the best class advantages in this group. WARFRONT FIGHTER - Shows sound Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this field. Have to bet on this money-making jockey and handler twosome. SCORPION DYNASTY - With McCarthy uptop him, this gelding will most likely be able to break out early in this race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 8:53pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 51

Rating:

#1 SIGNATURE DISH (ML=9/5)
#8 CLASSY ESCORT (ML=4/1)
#3 WATERLOO ROSE (ML=15/1)


SIGNATURE DISH - This speed freak should profit from this shorter trip. Stand by this horse. No other viable pace gives this animal a strong chance at the winner's circle. Jockey jumped on this filly's back for the 1st attempt on January 7th. Should be in tune with the horse even better in this race. Breaking from the inside, this mount should have a distinct edge. Her pace setting style should serve her well in this short race of 6 1/2 furlongs. The most recent speed rating of 40 is the top last race speed fig in the group. CLASSY ESCORT - This jockey and conditioner are reliable together. Winning percentage when teamed up is difficult to top. Filly is a few starts into a return here. Should give a big performance today. This animal is uppermost in (EPS) earnings per start. She looks solid in today's race. WATERLOO ROSE - Have to like the way Tobin has raced this filly back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today. Filly's last workout was second fastest of the day for the distance. I believe this animal will be right there at the wire. Gets Lasix for the 2nd time, so Tobin must have confidence in her.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HALF EMPTY (ML=9/2), #4 SARAH BELLUM (ML=5/1), #6 DYNAMITE LADY (ML=8/1),

HALF EMPTY - This questionable contender will likely be way back as this field crosses the finish. SARAH BELLUM - Don't think this mount has what it takes to be victorious in today's event. DYNAMITE LADY - The Brain always warns me to keep away from horses in short distance events that haven't hit the board in short distance events recently. The fig last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's affair. Mark this horse as a likely underlay.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 SIGNATURE DISH is going to be the play if we are getting 2/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,3,8] with [1,3,8] with [1,2,3,4,8] with [1,2,3,4,8] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #3 - Post: 1:28pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,800 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#1 MOMS FAVORITE (ML=8/1)
#7 SHADOW ME GRAY (ML=7/2)
#5 SUBTLE RIDE (ML=6/5)


MOMS FAVORITE - Looking at the past performances on all of these thoroughbreds, this is the only one to stalk. Worth a long look at this horse. This mare has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Brashears. Better beware of this angle. Dropped in class last out, running against the same type today. SHADOW ME GRAY - This mare's last speed rating is strong enough to triumph here, I'll play her right back in today's event. SUBTLE RIDE - This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +87. Taking a trip down in class; has the capability to make her presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MCADOO (ML=5/1), #3 IMA FINAL DE BUY (ML=6/1),

MCADOO - You figure that this animal is going to finish first just because she's always close. Just doesn't win regularly. This vulnerable equine will have a tough time winning this 1 mile dirt race. She just doesn't win races very often. IMA FINAL DE BUY - Really had to give me much more than that in the last race. Never made much of an impact. Common speed figure last time out at Turf Paradise at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this pony will improve too much today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 MOMS FAVORITE to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds

01/28/21, FG, Race 1, 1.00 CT
01/28/21,FG,1,1M [Turf About] 1:34:01 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $45,000 (includes up to $8,000 Other Sources). FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 117 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For Less Than $25,000 In Their Last 3 Starts). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile and 70 Yards.) (Rail at 17 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	1	Darling Joanna	3/1	Pedroza M	Hodges James E.	SEC	24	41.67	1.32/$1
098.8591	3	Explosively Hot	8/1	Graham J	Ney John	JW	45	44.44	1.50/$1
097.3194	2	Steal the Stars(b-)	7/2	Rivera S	Thomas Lee		44	36.36	1.17/$1
096.5221	6	Kuhlke	9/2	Murrill M	Nicks Ralph E.	T	45	44.44	1.50/$1
095.7802	12	The Missing Piece	12/1	Chavez O	Gabriel Terry		35	42.86	1.41/$1
094.8925	14	Bad Gal Riri(b+)	12/1	Green A	Kanhai Joseph		56	33.93	1.19/$1
094.7393	7	Gifted Talent	9/2	Beschizza A	Camejo Jose M.		45	44.44	1.50/$1
094.3653	4	Lucky Harborage	12/1	Kellenberger K	Peterson Jessie C.		45	44.44	1.50/$1
093.4983	9	Party With Kassidy	12/1	Morales R	Rosier Charlie		45	44.44	1.50/$1
093.4499	13	Diamond Lady	20/1	Sanjur S	Mordenti Kathleen M.		33	36.36	1.23/$1
092.9654	8	Custom Gulch	15/1	Hernandez C J	Woodley Carl J.		33	36.36	1.23/$1
091.5628	5	Lively Lea	20/1	Marquez C L	Modica Oscar	L	56	33.93	1.19/$1
088.1314	11	Go My Juliet	30/1	Riquelme J	Broussard C. J.		35	42.86	1.41/$1
085.7810	10	Nottodayfellas	30/1	Chavez O	Peterson Jessie C.		33	36.36	1.23/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 23.53, ROI 0.70/$1
. . . .
100.0000 1 Darling Joanna
[Category]Condition
[TurfMdnMClm]BestSpeed
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	1	Darling Joanna	3/1	Pedroza M	Hodges James E.	SFEC	44	34.09	1.18/$1
099.3199	3	Explosively Hot	8/1	Graham J	Ney John	JW	55	43.64	1.18/$1
098.2673	2	Steal the Stars(b-)	7/2	Rivera S	Thomas Lee		165	28.48	0.80/$1
095.9163	6	Kuhlke	9/2	Murrill M	Nicks Ralph E.		165	28.48	0.80/$1
095.7030	12	The Missing Piece	12/1	Chavez O	Gabriel Terry		18	33.33	1.46/$1
094.9084	14	Bad Gal Riri(b+)	12/1	Green A	Kanhai Joseph		18	33.33	1.46/$1
094.7364	7	Gifted Talent	9/2	Beschizza A	Camejo Jose M.		165	28.48	0.80/$1
093.9293	4	Lucky Harborage	12/1	Kellenberger K	Peterson Jessie C.		165	28.48	0.80/$1
093.5747	9	Party With Kassidy	12/1	Morales R	Rosier Charlie		165	28.48	0.80/$1
093.4218	5	Lively Lea	20/1	Marquez C L	Modica Oscar	TL	165	28.48	0.80/$1
093.1526	13	Diamond Lady	20/1	Sanjur S	Mordenti Kathleen M.		18	33.33	1.46/$1
092.4316	8	Custom Gulch	15/1	Hernandez C J	Woodley Carl J.		165	28.48	0.80/$1
087.3195	11	Go My Juliet	30/1	Riquelme J	Broussard C. J.		18	33.33	1.46/$1
084.9985	10	Nottodayfellas	30/1	Chavez O	Peterson Jessie C.		18	33.33	1.46/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.57, ROI 0.80/$1
. . . .
100.0000 1 Darling Joanna
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]ThirdStart