Friday 12/18/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-17-2020, 10:54 PM

Stronach 5 Dec. 18 Analysis

December 17, 2020 | By Frank Carulli
Former Maryland Jockey Club oddsmaker Frank Carulli offers his insights into Friday's Dec. 18 Stronach 5 races.

LEG A: (Laurel Park, 8th race): TRUNK OF MONEY blazed to a 1:09.3 victory and held off the deep closers to prevail. She was entered for a claiming price in her last two starts and remains eligible for this 2X allowance in a three-peat bid. CONJECTURE, 36/8-10-5 on the main track and going well since Gonzalez claim, cuts back off wide and willing long sprint try.

LEG B: (Gulfstream Park, 8th race): Five runners arrive off wins with Beyer speed figures in the 60s and filly Sweet Pearl has proven herself in two starts against the boys. The result: hit the ALL button.

LEG C: (Laurel Park, 9th race): ITGOT GRANDMA raced in-hand until the stretch and got got caught late off the Magee re-claim. He should be in control throughout in his second start after three months away.

LEG D: (Gulfstream, 9th race): DON'T BLAME JUDY starts fresh for a new barn and her ability belies her 2-25 record. She finished in the money in turf routes in California against the likes of multiple stakes winners Cordiality (12-34, $632k) and Dogtag, Grade 2-placed Harmless and Opus One (4-10, $213k). STONE TORNADO, a proven miler overseas, just missed in the same spot in her second U.S. start at Belmont. She faced a next-out, stakes-placed rival in that race and eventual graded stakes-placed Traipsing when she ran longer in her follow-up start.

LEG E: (Gulfstream, 10th race): CREATE A STORY gave way chasing next-out repeater Could You (3-7, $55k) and drops in claiming price off Hess claim. GITANA broke her maiden at 6F for $25k two back and could take some catching from the rail. BIRD MAP, a $50k claim in April, takes all-or-nothing type plunge for top barn. GALIT JAK romped off a longer layoff than this and worked :47.3 breezing for return.

Stronach 5 Selections:

LEG A: 8,10
LEG B: ALL
LEG C: 6
LEG D: 2,3
LEG E: 1, 2, 4, 9

Cost for $1 ticket: $128

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-17-2020, 10:56 PM

Friday, December 18: Remington Park Late Pick 4 Ticket

December 17, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Oklahoma City will have the night-time racing spotlight on it Friday as Remington Park presents the $200,000 Remington Springboard Mile and five other stakes races on a 13-race card that begins at 6 p.m. ET – two hours earlier than usual.

The attractive program opens a five-day end-of-season run that ends on Tuesday. The track lost its Monday and Tuesday cards this week due to wintry weather and will make up those two (post time 1 p.m. ET) to finish the year.

Here’s a look at the Springboard Mile Late Pick 4 Friday at Remington Park:

RACE 10 (10:25PM ET) // USEEIT STAKES // 1 MILE (DIRT)

SHE’S ALL WOLFE is the likely favorite as she’s 5 of 10 overall but perfect in four Remington Park stakes. Her dam, She’s All In, was dominant in the Oklahoma-bred distaff ranks and her daughter is heading in the same direction. This is not an easy spot by any means but she’s the kind that has a lot of speed and can take it two turns.

DIPPING IN makes her first stakes try of the year and was a maiden-claiming winner at Saratoga in August. Has done well here, as she was fourth by a half-length in a turf allowance in her first one here and was dominant in a four-length win in a sprint. She has been mostly on turf this year but she forwarded a sharp effort when switched to the main track.

TIZTHEBOSS broke her maiden and followed with an allowance win the next out and most recently was third in a very strong open allowance. Can mix it up on the front end and stick around for the fight late in the game.

RACE 11 (10:57PM ET) // TRAPEZE STAKES // 1 MILE (DIRT)

OLIVIAOFTHEDESERT was perfectly placed in her latest going a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs. Has raced against some strong fields, including the G1 Alcibiades -- a race in which she was fifth behind Simply Ravishing. Picks up top jockey David Cabrera in her first local visit.

CECILE’S CHAPTER is just getting going in her career and has won two of her three races. She broke her maiden at Indiana Grand and most recently was up in time in an allowance that came off the turf at Keeneland. She’s a solid late mover that could get a favorable pace for her rally.

TIZ SPLENDID NEWS has exceptional speed and was a gate-to-wire winner at Keeneland two races back. If allowed to set moderate fractions, she’ll be a strong player to the finish.
SIMPLY SOVEREIGN is a local hope and she has the speed to stay within range. She’s officially perfect in two races as she scored a maiden win at first asking and then was awarded a win via disqualification last out.

RACE 12 (11:28PM ET) // REMINGTON SPRINGBOARD MILE STAKES // 1 MILE (DIRT)

SAFFA’S DAY tired in the Nyquist at Keeneland last out and was an easy maiden winner there in his debut. Has never been the distance but his pedigree indicates he has the ability.

COWAN was a closing second in the G2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and stretches out. He broke his maiden on dirt and has a good local work for his credit.

OUTADORE dropped a bullet work at Keeneland a few days ago and comes in off a third-place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He moves over to the dirt for the first time in a race but has shown ability to those morning drills, included the five-furlong bullet at Keeneland.

RACE 13 (12:00AM ET) // JEFFREY A. HAWK MEMORIAL STAKES // 1 MILE, 70 YARDS (DIRT)

VANGILDER returned to Remington after a fourth in the Downs at Albuquerque and forwarded a second-place finish behind the strong veteran Chris and Dave. He has a good finishing touch and can benefit from the inside post and probable ground-saving journey.

HUNKA BURNING LOVE has had a tremendous year and showed his best in the Governor’s Cup here in August. He beat the talented Sleepy Eyes Todd in the Lone Star Mile and is as good as any two-turn horse in this part of the country. He comes in off an easy win in the Delta Mile and might be a better price than he deserves since Asmussen, Cox and McPeek – a trio of the game’s biggest names – have runners in here.

50-CENT LATE PICK 4 TICKET

RACE 10: #7 She’s All Wolfe, #8 Dipping In, #10 Tiztheboss
RACE 11: #2 Oliviaofthedesert, #3 Cecile’s Chapter, #7 Tiz Splendid News, #10 Simply Sovereign
RACE 12: #7 Saffa’s Day, #8 Cowan, #9 Outadore
RACE 13: #1 Vangilder, #2 Hunka Burning Love

TICKET COST: $36.00 for 50-cents

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-18-2020, 05:58 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Early Pick 5 Analysis

December 18, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Cal Expo has a Pick 5 carryover of $8,296 which has led to a $30,000 guaranteed pool in the 0.20 Early Pick 5. It is a challenging sequence, and it will be my focus.

This will be the first time the Cal Expo TV broadcast will be in high definition and that should make for a much better viewing experience.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

2-Dance Traveler (5-1)-This is the 4th start at CalX and now draws inside. Has been battling but is camera shy. This was Doug Chappell's pick over the #3, he needs to put into striking range and an honest pace would help.
4-West Central Beach (5-1)-Will toss last, raced wide in the slop. A brisk pace would also help and if Cutting finds a live cover flow it could be time for the 5th picture in 24 starts this year.

Race 2

1-Casey N Grinegan (6/5)-Program chalk looks the part and has raced well in all 4 starts here with 3 wins. But does take on some who have been facing better. Looks like a must use but at this level will include one more.
3-Brooklyn Moonshine (4-1)-Comes off a win and Plano will likely try to follow the same script. Should leave and get a close-up seat and look to sweep by late.

Race 3

2-Mr Steal Your Girl (6-1)-Plano has been sticking with the Cisco barn all night and that's the case here. Drops and will toss last in the slop, off-track record is 0-6. Looking for new pilot to put in play and could trip out for a picture.
3-Hi Ho Julio (4-1)-Slow starter needs to avoid being a city block behind at the first call. But will respect connections, the Johnson barn has been doing well and this 4-year-old has faced better.
4-Crash Dive (10-1)-Makes 1st start for new barn, Kennedy is between the pipes and that's a ++driver change. Willing to take a swing at this price, is very camera shy but has been facing better.
5-Get My Good Side (8/5)-Risky play, breaking issues in 2 of 3 starts at CalX and is 0-17. Three-year-old shows enough speed to beat this crew and is tough to leave out but need to use a few others as well.

Race 4

1-Touchmehowtotory (7/2)-Gets post and class relief plus Roland is back between the pipes. Three-year-old filly has won 8 of 20 and now faces older. Looks like a player with a top effort.
2-Mshindi (5/2)-Eight-year-old also drops to a better level for success but recent form has been dull. Plano could be aggressive but might be over bet and is only 1-22 in 2020.
6-Jesse's Student (5/1)-Makes only the 3rd start since 8/25 and the 3rd start of the meet. Best to respect at a square price, Svendsen's back and did pace the 2nd half in 56.4 last week.

Race 5

1-Sweet One (8-1)-Looking for a price and is Plano's choice over the 4/5/9. Could get a cozy trip and surprise.
2-Along Came Jane (3-1)-Jane has showed little since coming to town but does face a soft group. Kennedy steers and comes back in 6 days, could be ready for an aggressive try.
4-Ucia Hanover (10-1)-Has been starting slowly and now gets a positive driver change. Looking for Roland to get a decent early seat in 1st start for the Schneider barn and be in the mix.
7-Cardinal Rule (5-1)-This will be the 2nd time for Lasix and came home in 57.2 in last. Form looks sharp enough to beat this bunch, but pilot will need a good performance and to find live cover.

0.20 Early Pick 5

2,4/1,3/2,3,4,5/1,2,6/1,2,4,7
Total Bet=$38.40

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-18-2020, 06:01 AM

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 12/18/20

December 18, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Friday, December 18, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Lullula; 4-La Dame; 5-Katiesdreamgirl; 10-Tequa

Forecast: Lots of question marks in the Friday opener, a maiden-claiming $35,000 affair over seven and one-half furlongs on grass for juvenile fillies. We’ll go four-deep in our rolling exotics and hope to get a decent price home. Trainer S. Joseph, Jr. has a pair of interesting first-timers, including Lullula, a modest $12,000 purchase at the OBS April Sale but who has displayed some ability in a.m., drills, most notably a bullet workout around dogs at Palm Meadows in late October (4f, :49b, fastest of 36). She’s certainly bred for grass (Flintshire x Shakespeare) and lands the barn’s go-to rider T. Gaffalione. We’ll put her on top hope to get close to her 4-1 morning line. Stable mate La Dame (10-1) is worth including as well. The daughter of Karakontie is another bred strictly for turf and has been given a solid foundation of drills with a steady, healthy pattern that dates back to mid-September. Katiesdreamgirl may be the best of those with experience. The Young Brian filly finished with interest to be distant second in a similar affair over the local lawn when last seen in late August and has a right to produce a forward move for a powerful jockey/trainer team (E. Jaramillo/R. Nicks) in her first outing in nearly four months. Tequa (8-1) might be worth tossing in as well at 8-1 on the morning line. She picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. while showing the always-dangerous maiden-to-maiden-claiming class drop while also having back numbers that fit in this league.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:04 ET Grade: C
Use: 3-Old Main; 7-I Got a Secret

Forecast: Low-level maiden $12,500 claimers meet over a one-turn mile in an empty affair with not a whole lot to like. Old Main, a reasonable runner-up two-turning at GPW last time out, earned a career top number in the process and would figure to beat this field if he can duplicate that effort today.I Got a Secret was a distant third in his only outing in late October over a sloppy main track in an off-the-turf affair and seems certain to improve against this bunch, though the big class drop off just one start indicates he’s not very well-liked. You have to use him, but at 8/5 on the morning line there’s little value to be found.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:33 ET Grade: X
Single: 6-Crack Shot

Forecast: Crack Shot ships down from Belmont Park to join the E. Dobles barn and has form in New York that should be more than good enough to beat this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming field. We suspect he’ll be quick enough to outrun the speed types, and in a field with suspect closers the son of Freud should be able to hold sway under I. Ortiz, Jr. That said, this will be his first start in nine weeks and he only shows one breeze in the interim, so at 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower he can be considered a somewhat shaky rolling exotic single candidate. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:03 ET Grade: X
Single: 5-Twilight Galaxy

Forecast: Twilight Galaxy is listed at 7/5 on the morning line but almost certainly will go odds-on in this restricted (nw-2) claiming $6,250 sprint for older fillies and mares. Runner-up at this level two-turning at GPW last month while almost five clear of the rest, the daughter of Flatter returns to a one-turn affair while adding blinkers, retains E. Zayas, and shows an easy breeze at Palm Meadows (5f, 1:02h) earlier this month to tick her over. She’s a logical no-value, rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:36 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Heavenly Blessing; 4-Carson City Kid; 8-Exchange Day

Forecast: Let’s go for a big price in this $35,000 claiming sprint for 2-year-olds. Heavenly Blessing is listed at 15-1 on the morning line but we suspect he’s better than that. After cutting out the fraction in a two-turner at GPW, the son of Young Brian turns back in trip and represents inside speed in a race lacking in effective closers. Carson City Kid (2-1) is the likely choice and one to beat based on speed figures and the first-time-for-a-tag angle. This will mark his turf debut, and while he doesn’t have a grass pedigree he should enjoy the abbreviated trip. Exchange Day got loose on lead and outran a slightly softer group at GPW, drawing away late despite not changing leads. The E. Plesa, Jr.,-trained colt stalked and pounced his way to a debut win last spring, and with speed drawn inside similar tactics should be employed today.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:06 ET Grade: B-
Use: 6-Fightress; 8-Tony’s Rose

Forecast: Tony’s Rose handled a softer field at GPW sprinting on grass last month and may be capable of repeating on the raise in this restricted (nw-3) $25,000 affair for fillies and mares. The daughter of Tonalist likes to settle early and accelerate late, and with some help up front could once again produce the last run. Fightress, a prior winner over this course and distance, returns to the claiming ranks, is a solid fit on speed figures, and warrants a good look despite low profile connections and the short 14-day turnaround. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:27 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Well Done West; 5-Or’effice

Forecast: Well Done West was a respectable third at Keeneland in his debut vs. maiden $50,000 foes in October and was haltered by D. Gargan, whose stats with the first-off-the-claim angle (48% with a massive ROI) is ungodly. Protected in straight maiden company in a sign of confidence, the son of Awesome Again gets a couple of extra furlongs to work with today and seems sure to produce a significant forward move for his new connections. At 7/2 on the morning line he’s a strong play; let’s just hope he can negotiate a good trip from the rail. Or’effice launches a comeback for a new trainer (Shug) and while he’s probably not cranked up for a barn that has weak stats with layoff runners this son of Medaglia d’Oro still has a chance to be a decent type after flashing considerable promise last winter and spring. This one-turn mile might just be a tad sharp (we suspect he’ll be much effective at longer distances) and the work tab appears light, but we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver ”just in case.”
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RACE 8: Post: 3:38 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Chao; 3-Honorable

Forecast: Chao has plenty going for him in this turf miler for 2-year-olds. The son of Noble Mission ran quite well in both of his starts to date, most recently when graduating at GPW with a solid speed figure from a next-out winner while producing a determined late kick. Claimed out of that race by S. Joseph, Jr., (a sensational 35% with a flat-bet profit with this maneuver), he picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. and should see a fast enough early pace to compliment his late-running style. Honorable graduated with authority last month at GPW on turf at this one mile trip, doing so with a good stalking trip and a career top speed figure though failing to change leads through the lane. Protected today in this starter optional claimer, the son of Constitution retains E. Zayas is the likely choice and one to beat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:39 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Don’t Blame Judy; 3-Stone Tornado; 4-Bienville Street

Forecast: We’ll triple this second-level turf miler for fillies mares but with a low degree of confidence in a race may prove chaotic. Stone Tornado has done nothing but burn money since arriving from Europe – she’s been a beaten choice in all four of her U.S. outings – but the English-bred filly is sure to get plenty of play again based on recent speed figures and top flight connections. A listed stakes winner in France last year, she needs to be held up early and produced late. California shipper Don’t Blame Judy joins the E. Kenneally barn and is another with highly-competitive speed figures, though she’s just 2-for-27 with 11 seconds and thirds and always has had difficulty sealing the deal under pressure. Bienville Street adds blinkers and picks up P. Lopez, so the daughter of Street Boss may perk up a bit after hitting the board in her last three starts, most recently when third in the Claiming Crown Tiara. She’s winless in nine starts this year and is just 3-for-30 during her career, although all three of those wins were accomplished over the Gulfstream Park grass course.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Gitana; 2-Bird Map

Forecast: The two major players in this restricted (nw-2) $12,500 sprint for fillies and mares are drawn side-by-side inside, with the edge on top going to Bird Map despite the highly-suspicious huge class drop off a layoff. The F. Calabrese/S. Joseph, Jr. combo usually is aggressive with claimers, so if this daughter of Liam’s Map has at least one good one left – and the work tab looks steady and healthy – she should be hard to beat. Gitana returns to her preferred surface (dirt) and certainly will try gate-to-wire tactics from her inside draw. She’s improved considerably since joining the G. Baxter barn (most runners do), so if she can shake loose early she’s likely to take the field a long way.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-18-2020, 06:48 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #4

#5 Closer Look	There is a small chance this guy gets a bit lost on the board as he moves into open company, but his recent running lines stack up well, and he has the tactical pace to get a great, tracking trip.
#6 Working Title	Has come to hand very quickly since moving to the dirt, and the question is whether he reached his ceiling last out or if there is more to offer. He's pretty dangerous either way if he doesn't take a step back off that last one.
#4 Gentleman Joe	He's likely to get another good trip right up top with these, but this ML favorite doesn't seem any better than the top pair in here, so check the tote and make sure the price is fair.
Race Summary	Closer Look may offer the best price of the listed three, and all of them have a claim on the top spot. 'Look should get a great go of things from close range.

Laurel Park - Race #7

#6 Lawn Boy	He hasn't been embarrassed by some pretty decent groups in recent starts, and this class relief may be enough to get him home if he can bring some similar form.
#5 Drill's Li'l Man	Forward player steps up off the claim and stacks up nicely with these, but this is an okay spot for the level, so I'd want something better than the 2/1 ML offering.
#2 Futile	Recent form isn't much to write home about, but he has generally been in with some better groups than he's going to see here. He may show up late for a piece.
Race Summary	Lawn Boy is plenty intriguing at something like the 6/1 ML offering, as he has faced tougher company than this, and he can work out a decent trip from midpack with these.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#8 Conjecture	Pace presser should be right up on the splits at this 6f trip, and the price figures to be right off a decent third at this level last time out. Think she's capable of something a bit better than that today.
#7 Decoupage	Good Parx effort off the claim last time out, but her local form has left a bit to be desired. She's a danger if she can bring something like that last one here, but the footing is a bit of a question.
#1 Fille d'Espirit	Tough to argue with the form, as she has won five of her last six and has been meeting every class challenge presented to her. Her tracking style could lend itself to a nice trip from the fence, saving ground before finding a seam.
Race Summary	Conjecture has always been a nibbling type at this level, but she can probably bring an improved performance here, and that sort of run would keep her in the mix with these at a square price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-18-2020, 06:49 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #2

#1 YANKEE OSBORNE	Rode pocket to win, could do the same on class hike.
#4 MAJOR BUCKS	Classy 10yo takes needed drop, gets Tetrick.
#2 BEACH BOOGIE	Led, held second in split race that timed 3/5 slower.
Race Summary	Yankee Osborne was content to track the 4-to-5 favorite from the pocket and caught up late in a :56.1 back half to prevail. The same trip could be in store for him today. Play 1-2 and 1-4 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #1

#4 ALKIPPE	Can upset on best, should sit ideal trip, good price.
#2 BEST HONEY HANOVER	Winning machine, won off claim versus many of same foes.
#5 SHEIKH YABOOTY N	Took money, back-pedaled to last, could switch to rally mode.
Race Summary	Alkippe was no threat from post 9 last week but held gamely for third in unfamiliar lead role the start prior. She can stalk the pace and make a contending run at a big price. Play a 2-4-5 exacta box.

Freehold - Race #9

#6 BROADWAY EXCEPTION	Rallied widest behind runaway winner, got up for second.
#1 GREAT EMANCIPATOR	In range but lacked kick at 51-1 in fastest leg of split race.
#2 GW BRUTE MUSCLE	Rallied into slow pace, finished second as odds-on choice.
Race Summary	Broadway Exception stayed flat and finished well while 4-wide. He couldn't reach the runaway favorite, but could run past this field today. Play 6-1, 6-2 and 6-3 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-18-2020, 06:50 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #7

#3 Miltontown	Ran evenly as the favorite in an incredibly tough allowance last time and had won two straight leading into that one; can force the issue from the start and can shake loose from these.
#6 Crazy Legs Hirsch	Has taken to this track in a great way as he's scored three straight, including once over allowance rivals last out; he's launched himself up the class ladder and has shown a big rally at every calling.
#2 Major Shipman	Won two of his last three and steps up considerably; does well from just off the pace and has a good closing move.
Race Summary	Miltontown has improved this season and has posted some times that would make him tough today: has performed well in good races wherever he's gone.

Remington Park - Race #9

#4 Mesa Moon	Has tremendous speed and tries two turns for the first time; is on the front end in sprints and has no choice was to be there at this distance. Was second to Welder two back and followed with an easy win in a sprint.
#1 Don't Tell Noobody	Won two straight and lost a photo last time out; has improved going long and is usually a force vs. Oklahoma-breds.
#3 Great Faces	Has really improved lately with wins in two of his last three; has a good stalking style and does weld finishing up.
Race Summary	Mesa Moon has great early foot but is also bred to stretch out; he gets his first chance at a mile and will be dangerous.

Remington Park - Race #13

#2 Hunka Burning Love	Cleared off to a convincing win in the Delta Mile last out and has won two of three at Remington; getting nothing but better.
#1 Vangilder	Ran on well for second in a strong allowance race last time and could improve off that effort.
#6 Plainsman	Set the pace and was caught late and finished fourth at Churchill; always a threat on the front end going long.
Race Summary	Hunka Burning Love's only recent blemish came when he turned back in distance to six furlongs for the Vance Stakes and finished fourth, but he made good again as he came out of that and won at Delta. Strong customer going two turns.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-18-2020, 08:56 AM

Mitchell Newman

Last night was just that, last night. It's over and done with. My focus is on the MAC Championship Game in Detroit. It's the best game I've seen in college in the past two weeks and I'm going for it.

Conference USA Championship Game tonight from Marshall's home field as the Thundering Herd welcome the UAB Blazers in a game I do not see too many points being posted up on the scoreboard.

UAB's defense enters this game ranked 15th in total defense with 22.5 points per game allowed. The Blazers also happen to be 9th in pass efficiency defense and have held Under the total in 2 of their last 3 games played and in 3 of their last 5 games overall.

Marshall's defense comes in ranked a little better, as the Thundering Herd gave up an average of only 11 points per game on the season which ranks 1st in the land in that category. The Herd also bring in the 2nd ranked defense both overall and against the run.

Somehow Marshall lost their last regular season game 20-0 to Rice of all teams as their quarterback Grant Wells was intercepted 5 times on the day! Wells only had 4 picks in the Herd's previous 7 games, so I think we can give him a "mulligan" on that head-scratching effort.

On a cold night in Huntington, West Virginia, going to look for the defenses to be the calling card for tonight's conference title tilt and for this game between UAB and Marshall to land just Under the total.

4* UAB-MARSHALL UNDER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-18-2020, 08:57 AM

Bob Valentino

Time for a college football winner to take us into the weekend.

It will be 5-3 UAB taking on 7-1 Marshall from Marshall's home field at Edwards Stadium for the Conference USA Championship and while the points with the underdog Blazers do look tempting, I am going to pass on this underdog and look for the favorite to take care of business in a redemption spot.

Marshall was sitting at 7-0 on the season through November 14th, but they went out in their last regular season game on December 5th at home against the Rice Owls as the -24 1/2 point favorites and somehow managed to lose to the Owls, 20-0! That is NOT a typo! Doc Holliday's team laid the biggest of eggs against the Owls in a game redshirt freshman quarterback Grant Wells was picked off 5 times!

Interestingly enough, UAB played the same Rice team just last week in Houston and managed to beat the Owls 21-16 as the -7 point road favorites. I am sure those results have something to do with this line tonight and my feeling is we are getting some solid line value with the home team at less than a touchdown.

Marshall comes into this game with a 32.8 points per game average and they also have a 5.8 yards per play average, so I think you can throw that Rice result right out the window as a "one-off" that won't be happening again. The Thundering may even be better on defense where they lead the nation with just 11 points per game allowed. The Herd is also 2nd in the land in both rushing and total defense, so do not expect this 5-3 Blazers team to be moving the chains with regularity this Friday night.

It is important to remember that the Blazers win last week at Rice came after not having played in over a month, as their previous game had been on Halloween when they lost in overtime to Louisiana Tech! Due to COVID-19 concerns Coach Clark's team missed a whole month of action. So with just one game of live action under their belts coming into this road game and with Marshall's defense being so dominant, laying under a touchdown with a Marshall team that is coming off their mystifying ZERO points against Rice at home is just the type of play I am most interested in.

Love the Herd to win and cover as each of their previous 7 wins on the season had all come by 10 points or better.

Marshall gets it done at home tonight.

4* MARSHALL

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-18-2020, 08:58 AM

Trace Adams

MAC title game between Ball State and Buffalo tonight and it has not to like the Over no matter how tall the total is, as this game will be played indoors and features a Buffalo team that comes in averaging 51-8 points per game, 510.6 total yards of offense per game and a nation-leading 344.2 yards rushing per game!

The Bulls landed Over the total in each of their last 3 games and in 4 of their 5 regular season games this season. Dating back to last season, Buffalo is 11-4 Over the total in their last 15 games contested.

The Cardinals come in to this title game with 3 of their last 4 games Under the total, but have gone 8-4 Over the total in their last dozen games since last year.

With no nasty December elements to contend with in the Motor City let's look for the points to come in bunches in this MAC Championship Game. Cardinals-Bulls Over the total.

2* BALL STATE-BUFFALO OVER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-18-2020, 08:59 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (201969) Huesca at (201970) Ath Bilbao
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: December 18, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Total Over 2.0 (-110)
PLAY: OVER 2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-18-2020, 08:59 AM

Brandon Siefken

Event: (839) Tennessee Martin at (840) SE Missouri State
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: December 18, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Total Under 148.0 (-115)
My numbers have this game total at 141. My unders have hit quite well this season so with 7 points of value this is worth a quarter unit bet. Both teams have padded their point totals against Evansville and Lipscomb but the shooting should cool down here. I will go a quarter unit on the value on the Under 148.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-18-2020, 09:00 AM

The Prez

Event: (199) Washington at (200) USC
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: December 18, 2020 8PM EST
Play: Washington +7.0 (-105)
Another college football campaign and yet another college football playoff without a Pac-12 school. The No. 15 ranked USC Trojans are seriously overvalued in the collegiate ranks square off against the Washington Huskies. USC is undefeated in the Pac-12 but that comes with a handful of caveats. USC doesn't have a single quality win. The closest "Dub" they have come in the season opener against Arizona State. The 3-1 Washington squad is also absent an impressive victory this COVID shortened season.
Washington's advantage over the pass-heavy USC Trojans is experience and the ability to run the football. The Huskies run-heavy offense has a ratio of the run-to pass of 3-2. The Huskies average nearly 40 running plays per event compared to 28 pass attempts.
Washington will keep the lean-mean USC offense, quarterback and receivers, off the field with their near 540 percent third-down conversion rate and win straight up as the touchdown dog.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-18-2020, 10:27 AM

Oskeim Sports

Event: (251) Oregon at (252) USC
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: December 18, 2020 8PM EST
Play: Oregon +3.0 (-110)
My math model favors USC by fewer than two points in this game and the Ducks are the better team from the line of scrimmage. Oregon is 1.3 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.1 yards per play better than average defensively, whereas the Trojans are mediocre on both sides of the ball (5.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yards per play; 5.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit).
USC just announced that leading rusher Vavae Malepeai is unlikely to play in the Pac-12 championship game on Friday night. Malepeai sprained a ligament in his knee in last week's 43-38 win over UCLA. "Vavae is probably not playing in this game," head coach Clay Helton said. "He has not practiced this week. Does not look good for the game going in." The senior tailback leads the Trojans with 238 yards and three touchdowns this season and rushed for a season-high 110 yards against UCLA.
College football teams entering conference title games off a loss (Oregon) are a profitable 12-6 SU and 13-5 ATS, including 9-0 ATS as single-digit underdogs. In contrast, teams off a straight-up win that allow 24 or more points on the season are an 80% ATS losing proposition in the Pac-12 Championship game. With Oregon standing at 48-24 ATS in competitively-priced games (+3 to -3), grab the points with the Ducks as Oskeim Sports' Free Pac-12 Title Game Winner.