Monday 11/16/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2020, 06:22 AM

Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Pick 4 Analysis

November 16, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Pompano Park has a 10-race card scheduled for this evening and the 0.50 Pick 4 begins in Race 6. That sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with an industry low 12% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

2-Wesley Hanover (9/2)-Leads the field in money earned in 2020 and Wallis will steer tonight which doesn't hurt. Should be forwardly placed and has hit the board in 22 of 38 starts at PPk with 7 wins.
3-Stormy Dude (5/2)-Should like the company and can trip out from this spot. Only 2-21 in the past 2 years but has hit the board in 3 of 5 starts here and has taken 1 picture.
4-Baby Maker Hanover (3-1)-This 4-year-old has been facing better at the Big M without much success. Has done good work on smaller ovals and could be the post time chalk tonight. Has hit the board in 10 of 19 at the Pomp with 4 wins.

Race 7

2-Cardiac Fashion (5/2)-In from HoP and shows 153 speed there and last raced on 11/3. Is only 1-20 in 2020 but has gate speed and Hennessey steers.
3-Firewater Jake (7-1)-Was battling on the East coast but is no stranger here. Appears to fit with this crew and should offer a square price. Has some gate speed and could get sucked around.
5-Imagineuwithoutme (9/5)-Program chalk will probably get bet off the last line which shows a win at HoP in 153.1. That win came on 10/20 and will respect chances tonight. My issue is the 0-12 at the Pomp and won't offer any value.

Race 8

3-Soo Handsome (9-1)-Handsome does his best work in South Florida and will take a swing Plano will have him ready to fire hot off the bench. Hasn't raced since 10/10 but starts inside of the 2 chalks and has the gate speed to get on the engine.
7-Muscles For Life (3-1)-Hennessey tuned this 7-year-old up on 11/11 at PPk and the trotter went the 2nd half in 57.1. Oldford trainee hasn't raced since 9/21 but has won 9 of 14 here. Has the gate speed to get a close-up seat.

Race 9

2-Starcasim (8-1)-Has faced better here and if minds manners Sanzeri should keep in play. Th entire 8 horse field has managed only 5 wins in 2020 so will spread out in this leg.
3-Mittnage A Trois (8-1)-Simmons drives and he has steered before. Has notched 3 wins on the East coast but is only 2 for 63 at the Pomp. Using versus this suspect group.
4-Race Me Rocky (7-1)-Old-timer has done good work at the Pomp over the years. The question is whether he is ready for a big effort tonight. Nine-year-old has a 8-9-8 record in 55 starts here and Wallis can work a trip from this spot.
7-Risky N (2-1)-Nine-year-old lands at PPk from Hoosier, has raced only 7 times in 2020 and makes his south Florida debut. All that said, here is your 2-1 program chalk, Hennessey will do the steering and last raced on 10/27.

0.50 Pick 4

2,3,4/2,3,5/3,7/2,3,4,7
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2020, 06:56 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Parx Racing - Race #2

#1 Shiloh Lane	Lifetime maiden has had his chances and hasn't made the most of them, and taking his kind (0-for-34) is never the smartest move, but there is a ton of speed here, he drew perfectly, and the price will be right; water may have finally found its level.
#4 Jayjaydee	Class dropper will be pressing throughout, especially since he's trying two turns for the first time, but he hasn't exactly been a dynamo in the stretch, and with speed to both sides lasting seems like a mighty dicey proposition; trying to beat on top.
#3 Afleet Melody	The other favorite is another who wants to be involved early, though there is some versatility here, but he's 13-0-5-2 and has burned a ton of money, and the price will be false again here, off a very tricky pace scenario; tough to back at underlaid odds.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here, and the price will be worth the risk-reward on the 1, so if you can stomach the giant 0'fer and look past it a bit, there are reasons to think he's in the mix here, so give him a look in all the slots, and in the early Pk4 as well, as he figures to get overlooked, even though today could finally be the day.

Parx Racing - Race #4

#3 Ain't None Lucky	The chalk was a big-and fast-2nd off the Nevin claim, meets a very weak crew, and should be on or just off the pace throughout; imposing.
#7 Paloma Gris	Stretch runner has been facing better, so the drop in class should help, and there does seem to be some early speed here; logical EX partner.
#5 Three Potatoe Four	MSW dropper has some tactical speed and figures to be chasing, so if she can settle slightly off the chalk she could last late; exotics appeal.
Race Summary	Swing hard if you sniff that 8-5 ML on the pick, as she looks about 4-5, though you can get some added value by singling her to end the early Pk4, as that will allow for some coverage in the deeper preceding legs, as she has this field over a barrel.

Parx Racing - Race #9

#4 Brilliant Chase	Tactical sort won't be too far out of it early and has been running big of late, and while they were against Pa breds, the figures he's been posting would put him on the line here; look out.
#2 Inter Miami	Speedster catches a group without a ton of early lick, and his other pace rival is out wide, so if he breaks running, off a sharp wire job last time, he may not stop; theft is on the agenda.
#9 Thundershook	The horse to beat was a big 2nd at the level last time and clearly hits hard, but this wide draw is no great shakes, and the top pair will get first run off the turn as well; may come up short.
Race Summary	You could sneak out more than that 3-1 ML on the pick, as the state-bred races will scare off a lot of people, but he fits like a glove on paper and seemingly will trip out too, so play him to win and place, and in the late Pk4 as well, as he looks like he's getting all the best of it here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2020, 06:57 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1

#7 Kiltoom	One of two debuting in here from the Chapman barn, but their go-to rider lands here. He'll have to fire a decent one right out of the box to handle the rail runner, but something close to the 5/1 ML offering would seem fair.
#1 Kennesaw	Cuts back after a couple of modest turf routes, and while his sprint efforts make him the one to beat, I'm not thrilled to sign up for a short price with this guy for a barn that has had a much slower local start than usual.
#2 Osmi Slew	Has landed six exacta finishes from 11 career starts, so he's a pretty reliable type. That said, he's kind of short on excuses after that many trips to post, and he seems best used underneath.
Race Summary	Kiltoom and Touchdown Jesus debut from the Chapman barn, but the former gets their more regular rider. Kennesaw the one to beat, but you can have him at an odds-on price.

Mountaineer - Race #5

#7 Lucky Tuesday	She comes back with Lasix after fading badly last time out, so there's some reason to conclude she may have bled during that last one, so I'm willing to draw a line through it and give her another chance.
#2 Sweet Tassa	Barn has been doing everything right, and this filly doesn't meet the deepest bunch here at first asking. All said, she's probably overbet, but she's a major win threat.
#9 Doms Lady	Debuted with a bit of tracking pace at Charles Town, and she has a little bit of upside in this second career start. Not impossible on the hike here.
Race Summary	Almost had Doms Lady on top, but think Lucky Tuesday might be sitting on a big bounce-back effort. Those first two career tries were both pretty solid, and now she runs with Lasix after stopping badly last out. 6/1 ML price would feel fair.

Mountaineer - Race #8

#3 Happy Issue	Ran a big one in that first start for the new barn, and though she's stepping up for this one, she's right there if she can come anywhere close to repeating that.
#1 Aussie Gold	Dropper has been in with much better than this in most of those recent starts, but she tends to flash a bit of pace and may have a slightly complicated trip from the fence.
#6 Sophie's Angel	Dropper owns a couple of pretty sharp back dirt sprints from those June/July Thistledown races, and she's a big threat if she comes running back to one of those tries on the surface switch.
Race Summary	Happy Issue isn't entirely overmatched with this kind of group on the hike, and her last run was encouraging when racing out of this barn for the first time. If she backs it up, she's there.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2020, 06:58 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #5

#6 Speaker Van	Drops out of a higher level and can be effective in stretching out; Donnie K. Von Hemel barn heating up.
#1 Victory Stripe	Ran on well and was up in time last out; has improve in every race over his last four and looks to have figured it out.
#7 Toah	Responded with a four-length win last out in her first two-turn attempt in two years; was very sharp and has to be considered.
Race Summary	Speaker Van drops to his lowest level and should be able to adjust to a softer pace going long; can respond with a big effort.

Remington Park - Race #6

#8 Guardsman Pass	Moves back to the main track after trying a turf sprint; has spent his three races vs. maiden special weights foes and now drops to a maiden claiming spot. He improved position last time and should appreciate this distance off that effort.
#5 Mountain Breeze	Was claimed after running third as the favorite last time, steps up in price and turns back in distance; has started just twice here after running at Gulfstream Park.
#2 Mandolin Jim	Drops out of maiden special weights and increases in distance; both of those factors should help today.
Race Summary	Guardsman Pass tried turf last time out and can improve in his return to the main track. The drop in class should help him improve.

Remington Park - Race #7

#7 Kona Katie	Drops out of allowances and can be a big player at this lowest claiming price; comes off the turf and should be able to made a run here.
#3 Fleeta Belle	Ran on well for third and was claimed last out; has a good closing move and will be around late.
#1 Castanuela	Pressed the pace and tired last time; can benefit from have an inside post and can improve in her second off the layoff.
Race Summary	Kona Katie has taken on strong opposition and can get back to good form with this steps down the class ladder.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2020, 01:56 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park

Remington Park - Race 7	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) (.50 Cent Minimum) Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10) (.50 Cent Minimum)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $8,000 • Post: 2:48P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 16, 2020 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 16, 2020 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE IN 2020 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY). OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * COUNCIL RULES: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equi base Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MISS PHOTO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. KONA KATIE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designa tion or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FLEETA BELLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	COUNCIL RULES	6/1	9/2
12	MISS PHOTO	12/1	5/1
6	KONA KATIE	9/2	8/1
3	FLEETA BELLE	7/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CASTANUELA (MEX)	1	12/1	Front-runner	79	69	68.8	62.8	50.8
8	DEJA SUE	8	8/1	Front-runner	66	68	67.6	63.2	49.2
4	GRAY SKY MESA	4	15/1	Front-runner	68	64	66.4	62.2	49.2
9	WHO DIS LIL MISS	9	20/1	Front-runner	64	57	45.5	55.6	35.1
7	COUNCIL RULES	7	6/1	Stalker	81	77	67.8	72.4	69.4
12	MISS PHOTO	12	12/1	Stalker	78	77	58.4	70.6	65.1
11	LISA SMILES	11	5/1	Stalker	66	68	47.6	52.8	32.8
6	KONA KATIE	6	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	79	76	63.9	61.0	52.5
3	FLEETA BELLE	3	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	75	72	43.8	64.0	55.5
5	WHEW	5	20/1	Trailer	69	50	16.3	53.2	33.7
2	SHIP SHAPE MISS	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	74	71.3	56.2	42.2
10	FASHION ROSE	10	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	69	53.3	47.7	32.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2020, 01:58 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for ZIA

ZIA - Race 10	$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / 2nd Half Late Daily Double / 3rd Leg Pick 3 4th Leg Pick 4 / 5th Leg Pick 5 / .10 Superfecta
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 56 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 4:03P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. NEW MEXICO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SWEET REGARDS is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SWEET REGARDS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HEAVENLY ARCH: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the to p three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
11	SWEET REGARDS	5/1	5/2
2	HEAVENLY ARCH	8/1	4/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
11	SWEET REGARDS	11	5/1	Front-runner	72	61	74.6	45.8	43.3
6	LAURA BELLE	6	8/1	Front-runner	51	45	72.4	28.4	16.4
2	HEAVENLY ARCH	2	8/1	Front-runner	62	66	71.6	40.8	36.3
7	JUSTANOTHERLOVE	7	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	39	50	38.9	30.3	19.8
4	HAVEN'S JOY	4	7/2	Trailer	65	44	27.0	45.1	39.1
9	FACE CARD CONTESSA	9	4/1	Trailer	69	48	10.6	32.2	22.2
10	ZOE'S GOLDLADY	10	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	31.6	30.1	15.6
1	TIZ MY HOUR	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	39	39	26.6	22.7	5.7
5	POINT GETTER	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	57	58	23.1	23.1	9.1
8	ICY CAPE	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	10.4	8.5	0.0
3	EYEJUST TOOKCHARGE	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	9.1	17.8	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2020, 01:59 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Zia Park - Race #6 - Post: 2:15pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#5 SPINNING BLACK (ML=10/1)

SPINNING BLACK - I just may give this one a shot. Should rebound off last race where he did run off the board, but was within 5 lengths at the end.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 POP QUIZ (ML=3/1), #7 INDY'S SONG (ML=7/2), #10 ALL CHROME (ML=9/2),

POP QUIZ - Hasn't raced or had any morning drills since October 13th. Not much value on this morning-line choice. INDY'S SONG - Quite unimpressive rating in the last race at Zia Park at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this steed will improve too much in today's event. ALL CHROME - Awfully hard to wager on this less than sharp equine when he hasn't been showing any signs of life lately. Don't feel this runner will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's class rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 SPINNING BLACK is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2020, 02:00 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13200 Class Rating: 79

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 16 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $9,000, ALLOWED 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 AUSSIE GOLD 2/1
# 5 ON THE CLOCK 6/1
# 6 SOPHIE'S ANGEL 3/1

I've got to go with AUSSIE GOLD. Looks very strong versus this field and will most likely be one of the early speedsters. Has to be carefully examined against this group of animals displaying strong figs lately and an average speed fig of 72 under similar conditions. ON THE CLOCK - She has been running quite well and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most favorable in this group of animals. Johnson has a very strong winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. SOPHIE'S ANGEL - Bernardini has a strong winning percentage with horses running in dirt sprint races. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the strongest class figures of this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2020, 02:01 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #5 - Post: 2:13pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#4 NEVISIAN SUNSET (ML=2/1)

NEVISIAN SUNSET - My expertise says this is the lone stalker in the race. Ran last time out against much better horses at Laurel. The move down in class should suit her well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 SOUL PLANET (ML=7/2), #6 FREE COFFEE (ML=9/2), #5 SUPERGIRL POWER (ML=8/1),

SOUL PLANET - If you keep playing these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be frustrated most of the time. Not likely that the speed figure she recorded on November 2nd will hold up in this race. FREE COFFEE - This animal likes to hit the board, but doesn't usually win. Forget the top spot. SUPERGIRL POWER - In this situation, this entrant's inability to make up any ground in the last race is definitely troubling.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - NEVISIAN SUNSET - The Power Rating tells me that this fine animal looks good versus the rest of this field. I'm investing.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 NEVISIAN SUNSET is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2020, 02:04 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 43

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 NATTY NORA 3/1
# 2 BROOKVILLE STORM 5/2
# 4 BERTIE THE BEAUTY 7/2

NATTY NORA looks quite good to best this field. Has strong early pace and will almost certainly fare strongly against this group. With Pedroza getting the mount, watch out for this equine. BROOKVILLE STORM - Bermudez will almost certainly be able to get this filly to break out early in this competition. When a trainer brings any pony back this soon it is a positive signal. BERTIE THE BEAUTY - She should have a strong showing versus this less demanding lot. Very strong jock with conditioner numbers make this horse a strong wagering choice.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2020, 02:14 PM

Tony Mejia

Event: (225705) Panama at (225706) USA
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: November 16, 2020 2PM EST
Play: USA -1.0 (-123)
After a scoreless draw against Wales last week, the US Men's National Soccer team will try and win a competitive match for the first time since defeating Costa Rica back in February as they take the pitch against Panama in Austria.
Despite being without star attacker Christian Pulisic due to injury or forward Josh Sargent, who withdrew, there are a number of attractive young options up front capable of doing damage against a fellow CONCACAF rival. Weston McKennie was tremendous against Wales and should lead this squad in midfield alongside talented Jordan Adams. Meanwhile, a talented back four that all plays overseas in Europe helped captain Zack Steffen, the Manchester City-based keeper, maintain a clean sheet on the road in Cardiff.
This is a neutral site match for both teams, but Panama already played in a different part of Austria for its first friendly, losing 1-0 against Japan. Goalie Luis Mejia received a red card, so we'll likely see one of their inexperienced options out there. Giovanni Reyna, who just turned 18 on Friday, should be one of the United State's top goal-scoring threats up front alongside Timothy Weah. Ride the USMNT laying a goal and expect a convincing win here for this free play.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2020, 02:15 PM

Hunter Price

Nov 16 '20, 2:45 PM in 32m
Soccer | Portsmouth vs Plymouth Argyle
Play on: Plymouth Argyle +226 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Pick on Plymouth Argyle +226

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2020, 02:15 PM

Steve Janus

Nov 16 '20, 6:30 PM in 4h
Soccer | Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Guarani
Play on: Guarani -126 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Sharp Play on Guarani -126

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-16-2020, 02:15 PM

Rob Vinciletti

Nov 16 '20, 6:30 PM in 4h
Soccer | Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Guarani
Play on: OVER 2½ -135

Monday card has the NFC North Game of the Month Headlining along with the Soccer Game of the Week going in afternoon action. The comp play for tonight is below.
The Comp play for Monday is on the over in the Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Guarani match in Paraguay division league Soccer. The simulation model shows a higher scoring match here and the current total stands at 2.5 Guarani is the better team here with a 25 point lead in the table and should find the back of the net more than once here. Sportivo is not a good road team but has a good ground attack. They are a dismal road team and wil have trouble stopping Guarani. Play the over. On Monday the NFC North headlines on Monday night Football along with our Soccer Game of the week in afternoon action. For the Comp play play over 2.5 goals Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Guarani. Rob V- GC Sports.