Monday 10/19/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 06:03 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 4 Analysis

October 19, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park begins the week with an 11-race card. The 0.20 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 4 and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 4

4-Take The Deal (8-1)-Comes off a good effort in Wbsb debut and was off 3 weeks. Beat a few of these in last and will look for a big try at a solid price tonight.
5-Legal Bettor (10-1)-Stepped up in last and cashed a 3rd place check. Best to not overlook, did race the 2nd half in
54.2 and has 11 wins in 60 starts at Mohawk.
8-Allstar Seelster (5/2)-Winner of 2 straight since being claimed by Barrington and last start was versus many from this crew. Does best work by blasting out to get the top and there isn't much gate speed in this race.

Race 5

3-Superlative (7/2)-Has been cashing checks facing tougher and this could be a spot to take a picture. This mare can get sucked around and use one nice brush to roll by late.
4-Highland Dynamite (8-1)-Tossing last from the 9-hole and fits with this crew. Won at this level in 1st start after the claim on 9/22. The Fine barn has been doing well and this mare looks like a player.
8-Steuben Hanover (3-1)-Takes a big drop and now returns to the level of a previous win on 8/11. Comes off a break and that has been an issue. Should be a factor if ready to give a top effort.

Race 6

2-Dreamy Fella (7/2)-Makes 3rd start since the Auciello claim and should compete with this group. Will use but won't put all my eggs in this basket, is 1-23 in 2020 and only 4-44 since 1/1/19.
3-Nocturnal Bluechip (5/2)-Drops again looking for a win and this time isn't off over 2 weeks between starts. Henry can make an early move and should be a big threat if all systems are go.
4-Mach Steady (8-1)-McClure sticks and steers for the 2nd time on this tough to figure 6-year-old. Drops and should be in play. Could be used in gimmicks but keep an eye on the board in a race without a standout.
6-Cliffhanger (5-1)-Moreau trainee has battled better but is only 2-25 this year. There have not been any gaps in lines over the last 2 starts and that hasn't happened for a while. Four-year-old has 9 wins in 47 start at Wbsb and might be a square price.

Race 7

2-Only Take Cash (7/2)-Drops into a better spot. Has been facing Preferred company and this mare hasn't been firing on all cylinders this year. Winner of >$550k in 2019 can cash the biggest check here and Henry should be able to work a good trip.
3-Im The Muscle (6-1)-Steps up after a nice win from post 10 racing the back half in 56.1. Winner of 4 of 14 at Wbsb has beaten similar here. Looks like a player, Roy can be aggressive with this post draw and could take a picture at a square price.

0.20 Early Pick 4

4,5,8/3,4,8/2,3,4,6/2,3
Total Bet=$14.40

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 06:50 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1

#1 Honey Beest	Second-best behind a runaway winner last time out, and that local debut suggests that she might be a good fit right back with this relatively soft bunch.
#2 Zeyna	Debuter won't need to be much in a very weak spot for the level, and the barn has been having a good go of things locally.
#6 Iamthebesttoo	Tends to flash a bit of chasing pace and then go the wrong way, but she may be able to stick around for an underneath piece.
Race Summary	Honey Beest looks like she might be the right one to try and beat Zeyna, as she has an experience edge and proved a good fit with the locals last out.

Mountaineer - Race #2

#6 Hello My Halo	Taking a guess here after two dismal starts with better, and she's getting some big class relief while dropping back in with maidens after trying allowance company last out.
#7 Dilemma	Has some pace to get in the mix in the early going, and she didn't miss by much in her first try at the level. The one to beat at a shorter price this time around.
#3 Astromelia	Woke up a bit last time out when trying similar, and she showed enough tactical pace that day to suggest she'll be close with these early.
Race Summary	Hello My Halo has some chance to wake up in a hurry on the drop into the claiming ranks for the first time, and the price should be right in a race where Dilemma and Astromelia should take plenty of cash .

Mountaineer - Race #6

#7 Reds Best	Reluctantly taking a 20-start maiden here, as there are some back dirt routes that fit with what the likely chalk can offer, and he steps up off a good effort from close range last out at Belterra
#1 Swingabigstick	No doubt the one to beat after showing the way to deep stretch last time out, and he's sure to have a go for it from the fence again tonight.
#5 Hartford Thomas	Showed nothing in the dirt debut before turning in an improved, if even, effort last out on the Kentucky Downs turf. Think he's worth another look underneath with this kind.
Race Summary	Reds Best has had more than his share of chances, but his last one was pretty solid with cheaper, and there isn't a whole lot in here to beat outside of the rail runner.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 06:51 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #3

#3 Polo Art	Tired in his first of the year after winning his last three of 2019; has the speed to get to the lead and will be tough to catch.
#5 Good Good	Cuts back in distance can bring some serious late heat to the mix here; classier than most.
#8 Steel Shot	Rallied well and finished second last out and has been in some good races here; serious threat.
Race Summary	Polo Art has impressive early foot and lead the pack in this spot; likely to show considerable improvement in his second start off a significant layoff.

Indiana Grand - Race #6

#2 Zipaway	Tested much better last time and but has won two of his last four and was an easy winner on turf two back; can return to top form here.
#7 Ace Destroyer	Tried the turf after several good dirt efforts; tried allowance runners on turf at Churchill but is a much softer spot today.
#8 Fiftyshadesograyce	Won on the turf vs. a good group on turf at Canterbury two races back and can get a good trip from the outside.
Race Summary	Zipaway was in tough last time and should welcome this class drop; has good speed and can benefit from the inside trip.

Indiana Grand - Race #8

#3 Mick's Star	Tired from early efforts at Kentucky Downs and should like the change in venue; Amoss is still hitting at 25 percent at this track.
#6 Mo Hawk	Set the pace and just missed last time out and seems to have found his level; tried much tougher on occasion and fits well for this price.
#10 Space Mountain	Was up just in time to beat Mo Hawk last time and closes very well when he fires; could get an ideal pace setup.
Race Summary	Mick's Star has the speed to be in the hunt throughout and should be able to dig in at this level.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 11:16 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 1	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 2:05P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (INDIANA BRED LIFETIME CONDITIONAL CLAIMING RACES FOR $5,000 NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ONLY REWARD'S: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. TWISTED EMOTIONS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CAFE MISCHIEF: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. TROPHY DOLL (IRE): Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CUBBIE BEAR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2	ONLY REWARD'S	5/2	4/1
1	TWISTED EMOTIONS	6/5	8/1
5	CAFE MISCHIEF	10/1	8/1
7	TROPHY DOLL (IRE)	6/1	8/1
4	CUBBIE BEAR	8/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	MAJESTIC CLIMB	3	6/1	Front-runner	61	61	73.8	56.8	47.8
5	CAFE MISCHIEF	5	10/1	Front-runner	68	55	65.0	54.0	45.5
7	TROPHY DOLL (IRE)	7	6/1	Front-runner	83	83	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	ONLY REWARD'S	2	5/2	Stalker	71	71	66.0	69.4	64.9
1	TWISTED EMOTIONS	1	6/5	Stalker	70	68	65.8	62.2	56.2
4	CUBBIE BEAR	4	8/1	Stalker	68	70	60.6	56.2	47.7
6	SONG AND A KISS	6	30/1	Stalker	56	68	56.4	52.0	40.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 11:23 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Grants Pass

Grants Pass - Race 8	$2 WPS / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta .50 Superfecta $1 Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10)
Claiming $3,200 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 63 • Purse: $5,700 • Post: 7:30P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. FLYING HOME is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FLYING HOME: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. NOBLE GIRL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey win percentage over the last 30 days is at least 18.
7	FLYING HOME	7/2	2/1
8	NOBLE GIRL	5/1	9/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	FLYING HOME	7	7/2	Front-runner	67	59	70.6	60.2	57.7
8	NOBLE GIRL	8	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	72	61	65.0	47.4	39.4
5	LEAD ACTRESS	5	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	69	41.9	51.8	42.8
9	SUNSET CITY	9	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	65	55	0.0	48.6	40.6
1	GIRLS GONE GOLD	1	9/2	Trailer	57	48	0.0	45.0	31.5
10	PENNY JOE	10	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	46	50	0.0	49.4	38.4
3	MONCHICHI	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	51	48	59.5	40.6	25.1
2	LOVE U L C	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	52	0.0	44.2	29.7
4	UNBRIDLED BIRDIE	4	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	52	44	0.0	42.8	29.8
6	DELTA BOUND	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	42	0.0	42.8	28.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 03:22 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 55

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD TRAINERS STABLED ON THE GROUNDS WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE AT THE MEET AS OF OCTOBER 11, 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 SHE'S NOT BLUFFING 5/2
# 6 FRENCH CRULLER 8/5
# 4 ALL ABOUT BLEU 5/1

SHE'S NOT BLUFFING looks quite good to best this field. May best this group of horses here, showing very strong numbers of late. Going in a dirt sprint race gives this filly a solid shot. Ran a solid last race. FRENCH CRULLER - Could provide positive gains based on strong recent speed figures with an average of 61. Had one of the best speed figs of this group in her last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 03:23 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Thistledown - Race #2 - Post: 1:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,700 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#1 RIDE INTO THE SKY (ML=8/1)
#3 BEAUTIFUL GAME (ML=3/1)

RIDE INTO THE SKY - You'll be making money right and left by turning your racing money onto this rider/trainer combination. Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a sharp outing last time around the track within the last month or so. BEAUTIFUL GAME - You always have to be on the watch for bankroll building jockey/trainer teams; we have an instance right here. Ran last time around the track against a better group of horses at Thistledown. The move to a lower class rank should suit him well. This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Zielinski. Better beware of this angle. I like this gelding. Has the top earnings per start (EPS) in here. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough outings since the layoff and should be fit.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 DOCTOR LEE (ML=5/2), #6 GOT GRIT (ML=7/2), #5 CEE R BEE (ML=6/1),

DOCTOR LEE - Had to give me much more than that last time around the track. Never made much of an impact. September 23rd is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. GOT GRIT - I can't play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the assignment fulfilled from time to time. This gelding recorded a speed rating in his last contest which likely isn't good enough in today's event. CEE R BEE - 79/73/63, are the decreasing speed figs for this vulnerable equine.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - BEAUTIFUL GAME - This gelding's superior last speed number of 84, against these horses, makes him the overwhelming choice.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #1 RIDE INTO THE SKY on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 03:24 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6900 Class Rating: 76

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 19, 2019. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 GRIN N' BEAR 8/5
# 6 ASONGFORYOU 3/1
# 3 COWBOY RUSTY 7/2

GRIN N' BEAR looks like the bet in here. Erfle has this gelding travelling well and is a formidable pick based on the solid Speed Figures garnered in sprint races lately. Will most likely compete admirably in the early pace contest which bodes well with this group of animals. Must be carefully examined for this event if only for the decent Equibase speed fig put up in the last affair. ASONGFORYOU - Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt sprint races in this field of horses. The Equibase speed fig of 65 from his most recent race looks quite good in here. COWBOY RUSTY - Ran a strong last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 03:25 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:22pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#9 SAMADI SKY (ML=7/2)
#7 HIDE THE CANDY (ML=2/1)
#6 TRUE WISDOM (ML=3/1)

SAMADI SKY - This entrant could be tough today, especially since Haddock rode in the last race and now should be familiar with this one. A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a solid race is a good signal. The last time he tried this distance he got a fig good enough to win this race. HIDE THE CANDY - I wouldn't worry too much about the vacation; this colt is ready to run today. Ran last time out against much better horses at Penn National. The move down the ladder based on class rating points should suit him well. This thoroughbred likes to win on different tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. TRUE WISDOM - Likes to go to the lead and the fact that today is a shorter distance should be beneficial. Aboard this entrant on October 7th and Laprida is back again in the irons in this race. Good return on investment for this jock and handler duo. Wyner brings him right back. I advocate you stick with this live gelding. In his last race, this gelding showed good zip then fell back before finishing nicely.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 NAVY COMMANDER (ML=5/2),

NAVY COMMANDER - Difficult to bet on any less than sharp equine in a sprint event if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - HIDE THE CANDY - This colt has the top last speed figure at Penn National. Must be considered in your speculating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #9 SAMADI SKY to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	9 with [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[6,7,9] with [6,7,9] with [4,6,7,8,9] with [4,6,7,8,9] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 06:08 PM

NFL Week 6 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Sunday's home victory over the Giants. Prescott's injury led The SuperBook to open Dallas +3 at home against Arizona.

NFL Week 5 is almost wrapped up, NFL Week 6 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury news, most notably the atypically gruesome injury that shelved Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for the season.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for that information and more.

Week 6 Injuries

Dallas Cowboys: Prescott suffered a broken and dislocated right ankle during Sunday’s home win over the Giants. He had surgery Sunday night and won’t return this season. That led The SuperBook at Westgate to open the Cowboys as 3-point home underdogs to Arizona in the Monday night game, though Arizona quickly dipped to -2.5. With Prescott in the lineup, SuperBook executive director John Murray said Dallas would’ve been a short favorite.

Dallas also lost starting defensive tackle Trysten Hill to a torn ACL.

Kansas City Chiefs: Wideout Sammy Watkins (hamstring) won’t play this week at Buffalo, and might be out beyond that. The SuperBook opened the Chiefs -3 and the total at 55, and neither budged Monday.

Cleveland Browns: QB Baker Mayfield had X-rays on his ribs, following an injury suffered in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s win over Indianapolis. The X-rays came back negative, and Mayfield vowed to play this week at Pittsburgh. The Browns opened +4.5 at The SuperBook, and the first move Monday was to Browns +3.5. The total was steady at 51.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 06:09 PM

Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 18 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Monday, Oct. 19

KANSAS CITY at BUFFALO

After loss to LV, KC now 13-1 SU, 12-2 vs. line last 14 since mid 2019.
Bills 6-3-1 last ten as dog and also “over” first four in 2020 into Titans game on Tuesday.

Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and “over,” based on recent trends.

ARIZONA at DALLAS

Cards have covered last four as dog for Kingsbury (1-0 TY), 11-4-1 in role since 2019.
Cowboys no covers first five in 2020, also on 17-7 “over” run since late in 2018.

Tech Edge: Cards and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 06:10 PM

103KANSAS CITY -104 BUFFALO
KANSAS CITY is 14-4 ATS (9.6 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 06:11 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Monday, October 19

Kansas City @ Buffalo

Game 277-278
October 19, 2020 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
135.735
Buffalo
135.499
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
Even
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+3 1/2); Over

Arizona @ Dallas

Game 275-276
October 19, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
126.451
Dallas
128.735
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 2 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 2 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+2 1/2); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 06:12 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Monday, October 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (2 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 3) - 10/19/2020, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.