Monday 10/12/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?53-NFL-Football)

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?54-NCAA-Football)

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?57-ML-Baseball)

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?55-NCAA-Basketball)

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?56-NBA-Basketball)

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey (http://www.investwithsports.com/newforum/forumdisplay.php?58-NHL-Hockey)

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Tech Trends - Week 5
Bruce Marshall

Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 8 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 16 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Monday, Oct. 12

L.A. CHARGERS at NEW ORLEANS

Saints just 2-5 last seven vs. line at Superdome.
New Orleans “over” first four in 2020 and 6 of 7 since late 2019.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

477LA CHARGERS -478 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 5


Monday, October 12

LA Chargers @ New Orleans

Game 477-478
October 12, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
124.481
New Orleans
134.947
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 10 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-7 1/2); Under

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5


Monday, October 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CHARGERS (1 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 2) - 10/12/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 130-96 ATS (+24.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 130-96 ATS (+24.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in dome games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NFL

Week 5

Trend Report


Monday, October 12

LA Chargers @ New Orleans
LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games

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NFL

Week 5


Chargers (1-3) @ New Orleans (2-2)
— Chargers lost last three games, all started by rookie QB Herbert.
— LA’s three losses were by 3-5-7 points.
— Three of four Charger games stayed under the total.
— Chargers are 8-7-2 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.

— Saints split their first four games, despite scoring 30+ points three times.
— All four New Orleans games went over the total.
— Saints allowed 34-37 points in their losses; 23-29 in their wins.
— New Orleans is 7-12 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite.

— Drew Brees was the Chargers’ QB from 2001-05.
— Saints won last three series games, by 1-7-5 points.
— Chargers won four of five games in the Superdome; they lost 31-24 in last visit here, in 2012.

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Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 4 Analysis October 12, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park starts the week with an 11-race card. The popular 0.20 Early Pick 4 begins in Race 4 and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 4

3-Goldinthebadlands (5/2)-Winner of 3 straight dispatched 4 from this field in last. MacDonald is back and he has taken pictures before. Will probably leave to get an up-close seat and is a major threat.
4-Allstar Seelster (7/2)-Got on the engine from the 9-hole and didn't look back versus $20k claimers in 151.2. Has won 7 of 22 here and does step up, but this barn can keep them good for a while.

Race 5

3-Cyndi Lynn (6-1)-Put in a nice effort from the 2nd tier and will look for an even stronger try from this post. Henry should provide an aggressive steer and fits well with this group. Will shoot against #1 as the ML chalk missed a start and tries Lasix.
4-Sombre (8-1)-Slow start hurt chances when bumped up to this level in last after 2 consecutive wins. If pace is honest chances for success go and JMac should have in striking range.
8-Memo (8-1)-Drops to a soft spot, McNair should be gunning out and that could work well. Has the gate speed to get the top and take control at a solid price.

Race 6

2-Joliette Hanover (7/2)-Has the speed to swallow these up but has broken stride in 2 of last 3. Should enjoy the company and if not over bet this filly is worth the risk.
3-Carnival Heart (8-1)-Winner in 4 of 7 lifetime starts makes her big track debut. Might be overlooked at the windows and will take a swing from this post.
4-Sweet Pink (8-1)-Skimmed the rail with a close-up seat and the pace was honest but did fade down the lane. Now tries Lasix for the 2nd time and Gallucci trainee should like the company at a square price.
8-Always Watching (9/2)-Fits well with this crew and the post helps the price. Has started from post 8 in 2 of last 3 and both times left and got on the engine. Can leave with enough speed to get the top and might be able to control the pace and not be caught.

Race 7

2-Assassins Creed (6-1)-Didn't leave quickly in last start from the rail but took control and went the back half in 55.3 to win easily. Steps up after breaking maiden and will use at a nice price as upswing could continue.
4-Lyons Liberty (5-1)-Yonkers invader makes 2nd start for new barn and last was a sharp effort. Competitive colt might be sitting on a big try. Will look to beat the camera-shy morning line chalk #1.
8-Windsun Azar (12-1)-Steps up to meet better after rolling the 2nd half in .55 with a last quarter of 26.4. Makes 5th lifetime start, maybe everything clicked when winning last and will string along in a race without a standout.

0.20 Early Pick 4

3,4/3,4,8/2,3,4,8/2,4,8
Total Bet=$14.40

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/12/20 October 12, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
*
*
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Freedom Flyer; 4-May to My Heart

(View Video Analysis) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DinMN-kj6-Q)

Forecast: Freedom Flyer ran considerably better than the line will show in her debut when a troubled fifth in a similar turf sprint for maiden juvenile fillies at Del Mar last month and seems sure to improve a bunch for a barn that has exceptional stats with second time starters. She’ll enjoy a good ground-saving trip from her rail post and with clear sailing through the lane should be able to produce a winning late bid. May to My Heart actually earned a better speed figure than ‘Flyer when finishing a close third sprinting on grass in late August at Del Mar and is another that is likely to benefit significantly from that bit of experience. Though we suspect ‘Flyer has more upside, this daughter of Liam’s Map probably is worth including on your rolling exotic ticket, at least as a back-up or a saver.
*
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:36 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Tiz a Unicorn; 5-True Mischief

(View Video Analysis) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7X08E1bYuvo)

Forecast: Trainer R. Baltas has this race surrounded with the two main players in a five-runner affair. Tiz a Unicorn has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and seems very likely to improve significantly in her first two-turn outing. Her sprint form isn’t much, but she continues to train like she has some ability and a little will go a long way in this modest maiden claiming main track miler for fillies and mares. We’re projected her to draft into a cozy stalking position in this five-runner event and have every chance to kick home from the top of the lane to the wire. Her stable mate, True Mischief, is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite and deservedly so. In the frame in her last pair including a career top effort when third under these conditions at Del Mar in August, the daughter of Into Mischief shows a healthy work tab since raced and projects to be on the lead or in a cozy stalking spot outside.
*
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-From the Get Go; 5-Superduty Justice

(View Video Analysis) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfcT2PkqNH8)

Forecast: This maiden $32,000 juvenile sprint drew five entrants, two of which are stable mates in the L. Mendez barn. The better of the two we suspect is Superduty Justice, comfortably drawn outside and sporting a relatively short but solid work tab that includes a bullet half mile drill (4f, :48hg, fastest of 28) five days ago that we assume was accomplished in company with From the Get Go (same time). The latter was entered but scratched yesterday in a maiden $50,000 2-year-old sprint for this softer spot primarily to ensure the race filled. He’s trained okay, certainly well enough to be considered a contender, so in a race that we’ll otherwise pass we’ll include both in rolling exotic play and then press with Superduty Justice on top.
*
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: B+
Single: 9-Astute

(View Video Analysis) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6z8Ki1jdoY)

Forecast: Astute has trained like a very nice prospect for R. Mandella and appears well-spotted to win at first asking in this abbreviated turf sprint for juvenile fillies. She’s a daughter of Speightstown and therefore bred to excel on grass, and all of her recent drills indicate she’s plenty fit and ready. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she’s a logical rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:11 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Caymans Cobra; 5-Colosi

(View Video Analysis) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Q4W44iue3Q)

Forecast: Caymans Cobra is re-equipped with blinkers and drops to his lowest level ever in this restricted (nw-3) $12,500 claiming main track miler for older horses. A two-time winner at Santa Anita, he’s likely to obtain his coveted pace-pressing/forcing trip so we’re expecting the R. Baltas-trained gelding to rebound with a top try. Colosi is unproven on the main track but removes blinkers and drops sharply in class, so it seems likely the City Zip gelding will be a major factor from off the pace. He’s reunited with “win rider” T. Baze and sports a healthy work pattern since raced. We’ll prefer ‘Cobra on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
*
*
RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Tilted Towers; 2-Grit and Curiosity

(View Video Analysis) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AttSD12LxjU)

Forecast: The main contention is drawn inside in this second-level allowance turf sprint, with Grit and Curiosity exiting the best race and deserving of top billing. A respectable third in the Eddie D. S.-G3 last month and with recent speed figures that are better than par for this level, the P. Miller-trained gelding projects to settle into a second flight, stalking position and then have his chance when the pressure is turned on. Tough on any surface but never off the board in three career outings on grass, the son of Macho Uno is logically listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite. Tilted Towers, lightly-raced and improving with each outing, is moving up from an entry-level allowance grass dash while seeking his third straight win and should be close up throughout with a ground-saving trip from his rail draw. He’ll need to step forward again but could have it in him. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B- (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 3-Carpe Victoriam; 4-Race Home

(View Video Analysis) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2SJ2WvSZlY)

Forecast: Carpe Victoriam drops to a realistic level, gets a break in the weights, and returns to his preferred surface (dirt) in this $32,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds. A repeat of his strong runner-up try at Churchill Downs (out of which he was claimed for $40,000 by J. Sadler) should be sufficient to handle this assignment. Race Home is another class dropper likely to improve in this league. Not quite as fast on pure numbers as our top pick but turning back to a sprint (his best trip), the M. Ortiz-trained gelding should settle into a second flight, stalking spot and then have dead aim when it counts. Preference on top goes to Carpe Victoriam but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
*
*
GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 7: Post 4:29 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Anna Lisa; 7-Marilyn’s Smile

Forecast: Anna Lisa ran very well over this course and distance two races back when winding up a game second after a three-wide pace pressing trip and then went to Los Alamitos for an easy mixed-breed, confidence building score last month. Always genuine and consistent (first or second in nine of 16 starts), she figures to fire another big shot today. Marilyn’s Smile is listed as the 7/5 morning line favorite and will be hard to deny if she returns as well as she left. Away for 11 months, the daughter of Smiling Tiger hails from the T. McCanna barn (excellent stats with layoff runners), shows a steady series of works, and has finished first or second in four of five career outings over the Golden Gate Fields lawn. She’ll be rolling late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B- (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 5-Afleeting Life; 8-Invictatatus

(View Video Analysis) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1EKEAj7UnE)

Forecast: Invictatatus drops from straight maidens into a below-average maiden $50,000 turf miler and though beaten as the favorite sprinting on dirt last time out should produce his best effort under these conditions against this modest group. The son of Strong Mandate continues to impress in the a.m. and projects to be on or near the lead throughout in a field lacking in early speed (and late speed, too for that matter). Afleeting Life has been away for more than a year and returns in a logical spot with blinkers off and a series of strong, healthy workouts at San Luis Rey Downs for a low profile outfit. If ready, he absolutely can act with these, is the one to fear most and a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
*
*
GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 6-Billtown Banner

Forecast: Low-level ($5,000) maiden claimers meet over a mile in the finale. Billtown Banner appears to have much in his favor and can be considered as a possible single for those with limited budgets. He drops to the bottom rung for the first time, stretches out after a series of sprints that earned decent speed figures, and hails from a high-percentage outfit. Yes, he’s unproven around two-turn but against this group there’s no reason he shouldn’t handle the extra distance. Let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single at or near his morning line of 3-1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Finger Lakes - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#7 Smooth Tales
Pace presser did well to draw an outside attack post in a race without a lot of early zip, stepped up and was just a close 2nd at the level, and should offer a hint of value as well; look out.


#2 Loveboy Lou
Dicey ML favorite was last seen in May 2019 running up the track in a 50k starter at Bel, so the fact he returns for 10k at FL tells you there are some major issues here; tread very lightly.


#3 Roll With My Posse
Deep closer with like getting out of the ALW ranks, where he's been a bit overmatched, but he's slow on figures, and his lack of early speed is a major issue; figures to run out of room late.


Race Summary
That 4-1 ML on the pick is mighty inviting, as he really should be the second-choice to the 2, and with all the potential question marks that one brings, 'Tales becomes even more intriguing, so play him aggressively to win and place, and make sure to use his number to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since he looks like he's getting all the best of it here.


Finger Lakes - Race #4


Picks
Notes


#8 Steal My Heart
Stalker really impressed trying winners when 3rd last time, as she improved her figure in a big way, and there's still upside here off eight starts, at a nice price too; upset special.


#6 Chaysenbryn
Stiff ML favorite will be bet hard for Jeremiah off the Spa 4th with a big figure, but that was in the slop, and the rest of her main track form hasn't been quite as strong; trying to beat.


#3 A Dab Will Do
Lightly raced miss was 4th, 1 3/4 lengths behind the pick last time, so why she's 7-2 on the ML is anyone's guess, though she does have plenty of room for improvement; exotics appeal.


Race Summary
The price will be right on the 8, as they may view her last as a bit of a fluke, but there's no reason to think she can't build off it, so give her a look in all the slots, and use her number to end the early Pk4, and kick off the Pk5 as well, since a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.


Finger Lakes - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#4 Ouch That Hurt
Class riser has aired in both starts off the long break, meets a crew there for the taking, and gives the impression she's just getting started; imposing.


#7 Lookin Kinda Crazy
Pace presser has been in good form and now goes to Conway, who is 33% with his newcomers, so if she improves, she'll be a threat; the main danger.


#6 Hannah Dances
Tricky read can win this if she runs back to the big figure win two-back, though her surrounding runs haven't been quite as strong; mixed signals here.


Race Summary
That 3-1 ML isn't happening on the 4, but even 9-5 or so seems fair on a gal who is in raging form and looks to be going places, so make an aggressive win and place bet if the tote allows, though you'll get some built-in value by singling her in the Pk5, and late Pk4 as well, since this looks like another spot for an easy score, class rise and all.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Mountaineer - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#5 Desirade
Finisher has been a good fit with the local company and steps into a very reasonable spot to try winners for the first time.


#3 Flowzano
Looks like the one to beat while moving back around two turns, but she doesn't always fire and might be an unappealing price given her realistic chances of winning this.


#6 Out Say No
Stretchout player owns enough pace to be in the mix from the start, and though she's suspect late, she might find herself on the lead and could get brave.


Race Summary
Desirade goes third off the break after posting the maiden win last time out, and the price should be fair right back.


Mountaineer - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#6 Whiskey Moment
Gets back on the lawn after the modest main track try off the long layoff, and he has plenty of upside while moving back to the turf. The one to beat.


#5 Tulwar
He has never tried the turf, but he brings a pretty decent effort every now and then, and sire Machen does fine with turf horses.


#8 No Picture Charlie
Won't be the kind of price he was when last trying a similar spot, but outside of the top choice this is a very soft group, so he won't need a huge race to land a piece.


Race Summary
Whiskey Moment can improve with the comeback race under his belt, and his back turf form should be enough to handle these.


Mountaineer - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#4 Treetop Flyer
Worth a look at a price in this dash, as he has won going short before and might be fast enough to hang with the chalk. His only local try produced a quick win.


#7 Cuttin Edge Tech
No doubt the one to beat, as he's capable some freakishly big efforts at this kind of trip, but the price will be unappealing, and the top choice offers just enough intrigue


#6 Keller's Gold
Will try to keep up in this dash, but he might be best of the rest here. He's coming out of some pretty decent spots and owns occasional running lines that would be competitive.


Race Summary
Cuttin Edge Tech is clearly the one to beat at a short price -- he thrives at this trip and almost always fires. Treetop Flyer produced a nice win in his only local try, and he might be just fast enough to be in the frame with the chalk at the end of this abbreviated sprint.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park West - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#2 Khozy My Boy
Ran on for second in two of his last four and is ready to move out of this condition; broke his maiden in maiden is long overdue.


#1 Nicholas Rose
Pressed then faded in his first vs. winners; takes a class drop and can be a player from the outset.


#5 Ricki Ticki Taffi
Set the pace vs. much better and could be difficult to run down; drops to his lowest level after being claimed from Joseph stable by the Sano barn.


Race Summary
Khozy My Boy will get a sharp pace in front of him, can benefit from saving ground and can make a solid move at the leaders.


Gulfstream Park West - Race #7


Picks
Notes


#9 Solid as a Rock
Moves out of N3L after an easy win and can be a factor throughout; the outside post could help and she'll probably has a healthy price.


#3 Baccarat Fashion
Takes a huge drop in class and can make a strong move; use caution with this much of a drop.


#8 Beast of Wildwood
Has the speed to battle from the outset and has a chance to wear down some of the other pacesetters.


Race Summary
Solid as a Rock has shown good speed at every level she's seen and will get a good run from the outside of fillies.


Gulfstream Park West - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#2 Vinnie Van Go
Has been claiming in four straight, and for good reason; he has shown speed in good sprints and will be difficult to beat in his first start for the Hess stable.


#3 Mozo Bello
Was claimed out of a win by Gracida and has been haltered in three of his last four; responded in his return to the main track last time and fits with these.


#6 Cajun Brother
Won his first two races and then tired in his last two; has seen some outstanding competition and will improve here.


Race Summary
Vinnie Van Go can mix it up with any at this level and can wear down his rivals; can get back to the winner's circle.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

(Mon) NFL Saints -7-
(Mon) MLB Dodgers -150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner...ALCS Pick 10/12

Like the Rays to go up 2-0 today

100* Rays -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes



Finger Lakes - Race 3

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 3-4) * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 3-4-5) * PICK 6 WITH CARRYOVER (20 Cent Minimum: Races 3-4-5-6-7-8)



Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 60 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 2:04P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Stalker. LADY BOUNTIFUL is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * PETALITE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has ru n well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



1

PETALITE

8/5


5/2




2

GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY

2/1


4/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




3

HOPE I CAN

3


6/1

Front-runner

46


45


46.5


40.9


31.4




1

PETALITE

1


8/5

Front-runner

76


64


45.4


64.0


62.0




2

GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY

2


2/1

Front-runner

68


54


44.6


57.4


51.4




8

LADY BOUNTIFUL

8


8/1

Stalker

63


31


28.4


36.6


26.1




5

BELLA INVASION

5


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

71


61


45.2


9.6


1.1




7

LA RUBIA

7


9/2

Alternator/Non-contender

43


36


38.6


28.2


19.2




6

TWICE PROVEN

6


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

56


50


36.8


36.8


25.3




4

LUCKY DILLY

4


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

57


35


33.4


25.0


11.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs



Presque Isle Downs - Race 6

$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 6-7-8) Pick 4 (min .50 cent) (Races 6-7-8-9)



Maiden Special • 1 Mile 70 yards • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 6:50P


(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Lone Front-runner. RIGHTEOUSNESS is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MOONSHINE NOW: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. RIGHTEOUSNESS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ALL REVVED U P: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ANDRETTI: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BOLD ADVENTURE: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races.



8

MOONSHINE NOW

3/1


5/1




5

RIGHTEOUSNESS

5/2


5/1




6

ALL REVVED UP

5/1


8/1




7

ANDRETTI

7/2


9/1




4

BOLD ADVENTURE

6/1


10/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




5

RIGHTEOUSNESS

5


5/2

Alternator/Front-runner

65


70


81.7


62.9


57.9




4

BOLD ADVENTURE

4


6/1

Alternator/Stalker

78


64


93.9


57.8


49.8




8

MOONSHINE NOW

8


3/1

Alternator/Stalker

81


75


85.3


71.1


67.1




6

ALL REVVED UP

6


5/1

Alternator/Stalker

77


73


64.6


67.5


60.0




7

ANDRETTI

7


7/2

Trailer

75


71


67.3


67.3


60.3




3

MUTAFAANY

3


8/1

Trailer

77


75


32.1


34.8


23.3




2

HESITATION BLUES

2


10/1

Alternator/Non-contender

75


72


82.5


5.7


0.0




1

DO YOUR BEST

1


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

0


0


0.0


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Optional Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $5900 Class Rating: 51

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 HER ROYAL DUCHESS 2/1




# 6 COACH'S VALENTINE 8/1




# 1 SHE'S ALL TIGER 8/1




HER ROYAL DUCHESS is the top bet in this race. Will most likely compete admirably in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group. She has been moving quite well lately while recording very strong Equibase Speed Figures. This filly has to be carefully examined just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint events alone. COACH'S VALENTINE - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group lately. In fine fettle, and coming right back again today. SHE'S ALL TIGER - The handler wheels this one back almost immediately to race again.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Delaware Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:45pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 DAH PHILLY (ML=7/2)


DAH PHILLY - This racer could be tough today, especially since Spanabel rode in the last race and now should be plenty familiar with this one. This filly is in good form. Finished second on Sep 12th. That 60 fig this filly garnered in her last race tells me she's a chief player this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CHA CHA HEELS (ML=8/5), #7 LUNA (ML=2/1), #2 DON'T FIGHT (ML=6/1),

CHA CHA HEELS - The finish position of tenth in the last affair shows me that this horse may be going out of form. This less than sharp equine hasn't been on the track since Aug 15th. Not even any drills. This horse doesn't have a winner's demeanor. Frequently finishes near the winner. LUNA - This mare garnered a rating in her last event which likely isn't good enough in today's race. DON'T FIGHT - This racer hasn't shown much in the last couple events. When checking today's class rating, she will have to garner a better speed rating than last time out to vie in this dirt route.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #4 DAH PHILLY on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana DownsAlways check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 47

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 SECRET EXPRESS 20/1




# 8 BLUESKIESATNIGHT 6/5




# 10 PORKETTA 15/1




I've got to go with SECRET EXPRESS especially at 20/1. Cannot be ignored - Brown is a strong conditioner with the babies, winning 50 of his races. Look for a competitive pace improvement from this equine who enters with second time Lasix today. This group gives this trainer an edge with a solid two year old. BLUESKIESATNIGHT - This conditioner is solid with starters in baby races. There is a competitive chance that this entry's late pace will improve on Lasix. Must be considered given the sire numbers TrackMaster shows on this juvenile. PORKETTA - Wagerers may find value with this sire's offspring, who have a combined +102 return on investment. This horse ought to be wagered on at the expected big odds.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




https://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:40pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,500 Class Rating: 76

Rating: https://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttps://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#2 JONNY'S CHOICE (ML=5/1)
#5 AQUAMARINE (ML=10/1)
#1 MACHINIST (ML=6/1)


JONNY'S CHOICE - Williams rode this racer for the first time in the last race and comes right back in this race. AQUAMARINE - I like to play this angle, a racer coming back off a good race within the last thirty days. Like the way this gelding's finish positions keep getting better. That's a sure sign of improving form. Recent speed figs show powerful pattern of improvement. MACHINIST - Possibly a peak effort for this gelding today. Been getting closer and the end with each recent start. When this jockey and trainer team up you have to take a look. Gonzalez and Bell have been fabulous together. Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a solid race on September 15th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 STAND ALONE DENNIS (ML=9/5), #3 YES DARLIN (ML=9/2), #7 ARTAVIA (ML=6/1),

STAND ALONE DENNIS - 9/5 is not priced right for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a sprint affair recently. YES DARLIN - Hard to put your cash on the win end of any animal that finishes second and third as frequently as this entrant does. ARTAVIA - Awfully difficult to wager on this mount when he hasn't been showing any gumption of late. Tough to like the downward moving flow (71/68/59) of speed figs. Won't be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued contestants list.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#2 JONNY'S CHOICE is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

2 with [1,5]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park



10/12/20, BEL, Race 1, 12.50 ET
10/12/20,BEL,1,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:38:03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $52,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. Weight, 119 lbs. (Non-starters For A Claiming Price Of $40,000 Or Less In The Last 3 Starts Preferred). (If the Stewards consider it inadvisable to run this race on the turf course, this race will be run at One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Main Track.) (Rail at 9 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occ
WPC
ROI


100.0000
10
Big Time Lady
4/1
Saez L
Rodriguez Rudy R.
TSFEL
218
32.11
1.11/$1


097.9091
9
Cara's Dreamer
7/2
Davis D
Friedman Mitchell E.


228
32.02
1.09/$1


097.2435
1
U Should B Dancing
8/1
Marquez C
Kelly Patrick J.
WC
228
32.02
1.09/$1


095.8533
5
Frost Me
4/1
Ortiz J L
Kimmel John C.
J
228
32.02
1.09/$1


095.5219
2
Boomkittybyebye
5/1
Lezcano J
Englehart Jeremiah C.


228
32.02
1.09/$1


095.5140
7
Gray Lollipops(b+)
15/1
Rosario J
Jones Eduardo E.


218
32.11
1.11/$1


095.2095
4
Pop the Bubbly
8/1
Carmouche K
Nevin Michelle


228
32.02
1.09/$1


094.7410
3
Masu
10/1
Alvarado J
Cannizzo David A.


218
32.11
1.11/$1


094.0233
6
Wish for Magic
12/1
Rider TBA
Brown Bruce R.


228
32.02
1.09/$1


094.0028
8
Saluki
15/1
Cardenas L
Schettino Domenick L.


228
32.02
1.09/$1


090.6969
11
Ten Plagues
15/1
Cancel E
Schosberg Richard E.


228
32.02
1.09/$1


Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 27.27, ROI 0.88/$1
. . . .
100.0000 10 Big Time Lady
[Category]Condition
[AllTurf]LastRacePurseHigherThanToday
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occ
WPC
ROI


100.0000
10
Big Time Lady
4/1
Saez L
Rodriguez Rudy R.
JSFEL
119
41.18
1.31/$1


098.1991
5
Frost Me
4/1
Ortiz J L
Kimmel John C.


119
41.18
1.31/$1


097.7751
9
Cara's Dreamer
7/2
Davis D
Friedman Mitchell E.


119
41.18
1.31/$1


096.7801
2
Boomkittybyebye
5/1
Lezcano J
Englehart Jeremiah C.


119
41.18
1.31/$1


096.1981
1
U Should B Dancing
8/1
Marquez C
Kelly Patrick J.
C
119
41.18
1.31/$1


095.7825
4
Pop the Bubbly
8/1
Carmouche K
Nevin Michelle
T
119
41.18
1.31/$1


094.8571
3
Masu
10/1
Alvarado J
Cannizzo David A.


119
41.18
1.31/$1


094.1801
6
Wish for Magic
12/1
Rider TBA
Brown Bruce R.


119
41.18
1.31/$1


093.4062
7
Gray Lollipops(b+)
15/1
Rosario J
Jones Eduardo E.
W
119
41.18
1.31/$1


091.8446
8
Saluki
15/1
Cardenas L
Schettino Domenick L.


119
41.18
1.31/$1


091.7936
11
Ten Plagues
15/1
Cancel E
Schosberg Richard E.


119
41.18
1.31/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 34.25, ROI 0.95/$1
. . . .
100.0000 10 Big Time Lady
[Category]Condition
[DirtMdnMClm]DoesNotCarryHighWeight with
[DirtMdnMClm]RacePurseNotGreaterThan$75K

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park



10/12/20, MTH, Race 6, 3.09 ET
10/12/20,MTH,6,5 1/2F [Turf] 1:01:01 CLAIMING. Purse $21,000. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since August 12 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500, For Each $1,000 To $10,500 1 lb. (Races Where Entered For $10,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (Rail at 24 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occ
WPC
ROI


100.0000
1
Nicki de Nephew
4/1
Ferrer J C
Farro Patricia
J
31
32.26
3.39/$1


098.3074
9
Another Softball
9/2
Lopez P
Demasi Kathleen A.


70
34.29
1.94/$1


097.9626
3
Mr. Edgar
2/1
Peterson F
Delgado Jorge
TS
125
31.20
1.50/$1


095.3883
2
Miami Crockett
7/2
Diaz. Jr. H R
Klesaris Steve
FEL
50
26.00
2.21/$1


093.6351
8
Dizzy Sight(b+)
10/1
Gonzalez J L
Nunn Douglas


125
31.20
1.50/$1


093.0353
7
Highwaytwentyseven
12/1
Juarez N
Breen Kelly J.
W
50
26.00
2.21/$1


091.5840
5
Pascal Chant
6/1
Hernandez C J
McBurney Patrick B.


8
62.50
10.69/$1


090.7581
4
Evan's Nice Now
30/1
Maragh R R
Toscano. Jr. John T.


5
20.00
14.96/$1


089.4286
6
Next Cowboy Up
30/1
Flores V J
Helmetag Robert P.
C
125
31.20
1.50/$1


Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 21.43, ROI 0.46/$1
. . . .
100.0000 1 Nicki de Nephew
[Category]Condition
[TurfNot_MdnMClm]*2ndHorse98RatingAndTopHorse100Rating
*Scratches may change this condition If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
Occ
WPC
ROI


100.0000
3
Mr. Edgar
2/1
Peterson F
Delgado Jorge
TSF
143
41.26
1.15/$1


099.1967
2
Miami Crockett
7/2
Diaz. Jr. H R
Klesaris Steve
EL
143
41.26
1.15/$1


098.6429
1
Nicki de Nephew
4/1
Ferrer J C
Farro Patricia
J
143
41.26
1.15/$1


098.0993
7
Highwaytwentyseven
12/1
Juarez N
Breen Kelly J.


143
41.26
1.15/$1


096.8328
9
Another Softball
9/2
Lopez P
Demasi Kathleen A.
W
143
41.26
1.15/$1


096.5700
8
Dizzy Sight(b+)
10/1
Gonzalez J L
Nunn Douglas


143
41.26
1.15/$1


095.8477
4
Evan's Nice Now
30/1
Maragh R R
Toscano. Jr. John T.


143
41.26
1.15/$1


095.8294
5
Pascal Chant
6/1
Hernandez C J
McBurney Patrick B.


143
41.26
1.15/$1


094.6372
6
Next Cowboy Up
30/1
Flores V J
Helmetag Robert P.
C
37
59.46
2.28/$1


Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 27.14, ROI 0.78/$1
. . . .
100.0000 3 Mr. Edgar
[Category]Condition
[DirtNot_MdnMClm]LastRacePurseHigherThanToday

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB public betting, line movement October 12
Patrick Everson

Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers look to keep their perfect postseason intact against the Braves in Game 1 of the NLCS on Monday night. Caesars sportsbooks have Los Angeles a -138 favorite.

MLB betting odds are on the board for a Monday double dip, courtesy of the NLCS and ALCS. The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers square off in Game 1 of the NLCS in Arlington, Texas, preceded by Game 2 of the ALCS between the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays in San Diego.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s games. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.

MLB line movement

Los Angeles finished this shortened regular season with the best record in the majors, so it’s no surprise to see the Dodgers in the NLCS. L.A. is a perfect 5-0 in the postseason thus far, coming off a 3-0 sweep of the San Diego Padres in the NLDS. Likewise, Atlanta is 5-0, sweeping the Miami Marlins in the divisional round.

Caesars sportsbooks opened the Dodgers -145 Game 1 favorites, with Atlanta +135, and by late Sunday evening, the moneyline was at Dodgers -138/Braves +128. The total opened at 8 and stuck there through Sunday for Monday’s 8:08 p.m. ET first pitch.

Tampa Bay claimed a 2-1 victory over Houston in Game 1 of the ALCS on Sunday. PointsBet USA opened Game 2 at Rays -135/Astros +115, and there was no movement through Sunday night for Monday’s 4:07 p.m. ET start. PointsBet opened the total at 8 and momentarily ticked to 7.5 before going back to 8.

MLB public betting

The Dodgers are always a public team, and that’s showing up in early Covers Consensus play, with 64 percent of picks on Los Angeles through Sunday night. The total was getting two-way play, with 52 percent of picks on the Over.

Astros-Rays Game 2 is also getting two-way traction, with 52 percent of early Covers Consensus picks on Tampa Bay. On the total, 56 percent of picks through Sunday night were on the Over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

963HOUSTON -964 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 77-56 SU (15.4 Units) in home games against right-handed starters in the last 3 seasons.

965ATLANTA -966 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 37-23 SU (12.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (34 - 32) at TAMPA BAY (45 - 22) - 4:07 PM
TYLER GLASNOW (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

TYLER GLASNOW vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

CHARLIE MORTON vs. HOUSTON since 1997
MORTON is 5-6 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.92 and a WHIP of 1.604.
His team's record is 6-6 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-8. (-4.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (40 - 25) vs. LA DODGERS (48 - 17) - 8:08 PM
MAX FRIED (L) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 139-93 (+24.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 62-41 (+20.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FRIED is 12-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 26-7 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 22-6 (+13.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 19-3 (+15.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 2-9 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MAX FRIED vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
FRIED is 0-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 6.55 and a WHIP of 1.909.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ATLANTA since 1997
KERSHAW is 7-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.49 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 12-2 (+8.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-6. (+0.8 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Monday, October 12

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (1-0) (@ San Diego)
McCullers is 0-3, 4.98 in his last five starts.
— Houston is 6-6 in his starts, 2-5 away from home.
— Under is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— McCullers is 1-0, 3.25 in 12 playoff games (5 starts).
— He is 1-2, 3.79 in three career starts vs Tampa Bay.

— Astros won five of their seven playoff games.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Over is 3-4 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 14-25 on road this season.

Former Astro Morton is 3-0, 4.20 in his last three starts.
— Tampa Bay is 6-4 in his starts, 2-2 away from home.
— Under is 6-1 in his last seven starts.
— Morton is 5-2, 3.50 in ten playoff games (9 starts).
— He is 4-6, 6.28 in 11 career starts vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay won six of its eight playoff games.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 26-13 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

National League
Atlanta vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Fried is 0-0, 3.19 in his last three starts.
— Atlanta is 12-1 in his starts, 5-0 away from home.
— Over is 4-1 in his last five starts.
— Fried is 0-0, 4.67 in 10 playoff games (2 starts).
— He is 0-2, 6.55 in three career starts vs Atlanta.

— Braves threw four shutouts in winning first five playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 21-14 away from home this season.
— Under is 4-1 in their playoff games.

Buehler is 0-0, 3.66 in his last five starts.
— Dodgers are 9-1 in his starts, winning last eight.
— Under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— Buehler is 1-1, 2.84 in eight career playoff starts.
— He is 2-0, 2.92 in two starts vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 48-17 this year, winning last nine games.
— LA outscored foes 30-11 in their five playoff wins.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 27-8 away from home this season.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Monday, October 12

Trend Report

Houston @ Tampa Bay
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Monday, October 12

Houston @ Tampa Bay

Game 963-964
October 12, 2020 @ 4:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(McCullers) 16.469
Tampa Bay
(Morton) 15.387
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-135
8
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+115); Over

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers

Game 965-966
October 12, 2020 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Fried) 16.781
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 19.190
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-145
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-145); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chargers vs. Saints Week 5 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

For the second consecutive week, the Los Angeles Chargers find themselves out on the road in NFC South country, and if they've got another chance to knock off a future HOF quarterback again, hopefully, they'll know how to finish this time.

The Chargers had QB Tom Brady and the Buccaneers down big late in that 1st half last week before blunders started the spiral of momentum against them, and Tampa took full advantage in the final 30 minutes. Mistakes like that can happen for younger teams like the Chargers are, but the Saints have not looked invincible by any means this year.

Yet, the problem for Chargers fans/backers has to be that any time we get Drew Brees on MNF these days, he's usually out there breaking some long-standing QB record. I'm not sure there are any within reach this time, but the Saints have been a reliable team to back in recent MNF games as some memorable moments for Brees are behind them.

Betting Resources

Week 5 Matchup: AFC vs. NFC
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Location: New Orleans, LA
Date: Monday, Oct. 12, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert makes his fourth straight start as the Chargers take on the Saints. (AP)

Line Movements

But Saints fans have to fear that all of the great moments Brees has had in his career are currently behind him, as there are serious questions about his ability to be that guy to lead this team on another deep run this year.

New Orleans was hoping to have wide receiver Michael Thomas available to help give Brees a more reliable option to work with on offense but the below "Tweet" from Adam Schefter sums up the priorities for the All-Pro.

With or without Thomas, the Saints still have trouble stopping teams too – Saints give up an average of 30.8 points per game – and if Brees is amid a severe decline, how long can you expect to have him keep winning games 35-30?

New Orleans might not have to worry so much with this specific opponent about those deficiencies, but they'll still be around regardless. They are a big part of the question this week regarding whether the Saints will cover this number.

Spread: New Orleans -7
Money-Line: New Orleans -310, L.A. Chargers +260
Total: 50

2020 Betting Stats

L.A. Chargers

Overall: 1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Road: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 20.8 (Rank 27)
Defense PPG: 23.8 (Rank 11)

New Orleans

Overall: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 O/U
Home: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 30.8 (Rank T-5)
Defense PPG: 30.8 (Rank 25)

Handicapping the Total

This game is not one I was particularly fond of for the entire week this week as there are cases to be made each way. In terms of the total, Saints at home in prime time appearances have lit up the scoreboard in the past, and we just saw another 40+, the future HOF QB put up 5 TD's on this Chargers defense last week. But Brady's been trying to re-teach himself to look deep then short this year in his progressions when all Brees tends to look and throw short.

Alternatively, can you trust this Chargers offense to put up 30+ point efforts in consecutive weeks after failing to score more than 20 in their first three games of the season? Yes, the Saints defense is bad and can help LA along in that regard, but it's still rookie QB Justin Herbert's second career road start, in a tough travel spot (whether they went to and from LA between games or not), and off a game where they coughed up what would have been a huge win.

The Chargers being completely flat and/or overmatched early is also a possible outcome to thing about here, and asking them to pull their weight for a total in the ‘50s may be a bit much.

I'm more inclined to think that the Chargers offense is likely to come back down to earth a bit, as well as the Saints defense at least “looking” better against an inferior opponent. I do also think this Chargers defense is more likely to bounce back off that rough outing and look more like the team that held the Bengals, Chiefs, and Panthers to 12, 23, and 21 points, respectively, as they did in their first three games.

I believe that Brees has hit that career cliff where talent tends to nosedive, so asking him to keep putting up 30 points a game on long, dink-and-dunk drives just isn't going to keep working out. New Orleans is 6-2 O/U in their last eight appearances on MNF, but they are also on a 4-11 O/U run against a losing team. It's the last run that I side with for this one.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 2, 2016 - New Orleans 35 at L.A. Chargers 34, Saints +3.5, Over 54
Oct. 7, 2012 - New Orleans 31 vs. San Diego 24, Saints -3.5, Over 52.5

Handicapping the Side

Believing the end is here for Brees also means that I want no part of him laying anything that much more than a FG based on the matchup, and this is one of those games where it's between fading the Saints or passing on the side.

Even if I'm completely wrong about Brees being smack dab right in the middle of the end, and he still goes out there and lights things up, New Orleans still has a defense that gives up 30 points per game. Even if they do look better, you're always asking them to potentially keep the back door shut as well from an ATS standpoint late in the game. Even if they declared they wanted too, I'm not sure the Saints defense could stop a garbage time TD drive against more times than not, and that's a situation that bettors still may have to sweat out after watching Brees and the Saints offense be at their best.

Anything less than that (far more likely), from Brees and company, and this spread is far too lofty a price on the Saints for me even to consider.

Yet, I'm not thrilled to be having the Chargers in this game either, as back-to-back non-conference road spots tend to be hard for a young team to come away with back-to-back ATS wins. And if it's the Chargers who have a dud of a game, even an average Brees and company win this game by double digits comfortably.

The Chargers are on a 33-15-4 ATS run as an organization when listed as a road underdog, but they are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last four MNF appearances. Again, cases to be made for both sides, and it's just safer to pass.

Key Injuries

L.A. Chargers

QB Tyrod Taylor: Lung - Questionable
WR Mike Williams: Hamstring - Questionable
G Trai Turner: Groin - Questionable
T Storm Norton: Knee - Questionable
T Bryan Bulaga: Back - Questionable
RB Austin Ekeler: Hamstring - Out

New Orleans

WR Michael Thomas: Discipline - Out
T Ryan Ramczyk: Concussion - Questionable
T Andrus Peat: Ankle - Questionable
CB Marshon Lattimore: Hamstring - Questionable
CB Janoris Jenkins: Shoulder - Questionable
DE Marcus Davenport: Elbow - Questionable
TE Jared Cook: Ankle - Questionable
LB Chase Hansen: Hip - Out

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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Free Sports Picks


1.
NSA(The Legend) (https://www.nsawins.com/)
MLB – Rays over 8


2.
Gameday Network (https://www.gamedaynetwork.com/)
MLB – Dodgers over 8


3.
VegasSI.com (https://www.vegassi.com/)
MLB – Astros over 8


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Vegas Line Crushers (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com/)
MLB – Dodgers under 8


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Sports Action 365 (https://www.sportsaction365.com/)
MLB – Astros over 8


6.
Point Spread Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
MLB – Dodgers -135


7.
Lou Panelli (https://www.nsawins.com/lou-big-play-panelli/)
MLB – Astros +115


8.
Gerry “Big Cat” Andino (https://www.nsawins.com/gerry-big-cat-andino/)
MLB – Dodgers -135


9.
VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club (https://www.vegassi.com/)
MLB – Astros over 8


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William E. Stockton (https://www.nsawins.com/william-e-stockton/)
MLB – Dodgers under 8


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Vincent Pioli (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/vincent-pioli/)
MLB – Astros +115


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Steve “Scoop” Kendall (https://www.nsawins.com/steve-scoop-kendall/)
MLB – Dodgers -135


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SCORE (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
MLB – Astros over 8


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East Coast Line Movers (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
MLB – Dodgers under 8


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MLB – Astros +115


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MLB – Dodgers -135


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MLB – Astros over 8


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MLB – Dodgers under 8


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MLB – Astros +115


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Las Vegas Sports Commission (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
MLB – Dodgers -135


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MLB – Astros over 8


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MLB – Dodgers under 8


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Las Vegas Private CEO Club (https://www.vegaslinecrushers.com)
MLB – Astros over 8


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Michigan Sports (https://www.vegassi.com/sports-handicappers/michigan-sports-network/)
MLB – Astros +115


25.
National Consensus Report (https://www.pointspreadreport.com/)
MLB – Dodgers -135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price Oct 12 '20, 8:08 PM in 2h
MLB | Braves vs Dodgers
Play on: Braves +135 at Draft Kings

1* Free Pick on Braves +135

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Sal Michaels Oct 12 '20, 8:08 PM in 2h
MLB | Braves vs Dodgers
Play on: Dodgers -135 at Mirage

Free Play on Dodgers -135

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Brandon Lee Oct 12 '20, 8:08 PM in 2h
MLB | Braves vs Dodgers
Play on: Dodgers -137 at YouWager

PICK - Los Angeles Dodgers -137
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 966
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Dodgers laying less than -150 at home against the Braves. Atlanta has had an impressive run to the NLCS. They have not lost, sweeping the Reds 2-0 and the Marlins 3-0. What really stands out is that they didn't allow a run in 4 of their 5 wins.
I just think that had everything to do with who they played. No way are they going to keep that going against this Dodgers team. LA is coming off a 3-game sweep of the Padres where they scored 23 runs on 29 hits.
Max Fried will start for the Braves and he was the culprit in the one game Atlanta didn't pitch a shutout, as he gave up 4 runs in 4 hits in to the Marlins. Even more concerning here is Fried's struggles against the Dodgers. He's got a 6.55 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in 3 career starts against them.
Walker Buehler is set to go for LA and even though he doesn't figure to go deep, I'll put my trust in the bullpen and more so the offense to carry them to a win. Give me the Dodgers -137!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pro Computer Gambler Oct 12 '20, 8:08 PM in 2h
MLB | Braves vs Dodgers
Play on: Braves +128 at William Hill

MLB SYSTEM OF THE DAY: 1. Playoffs 2. Dog off of a win 3. Road dog of +110 to +140 3b. OR Home dog of > -110 64-30 +46.71 +49.4% roi SU. -- Active today on the Braves

The Braves are 11-4 ON since Aug 30, 2020 on the road.

EXTRA SYSTEM: A team that has been hitting well vs. a team starting a pitcher who got 1 or 2 runs L2 starts and the team he is on pulled very few errors in their last two go 1209-1081 +176.59 units +6.5% roi - (Active on the Braves)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon Oct 12 '20, 8:08 PM in 2h
MLB | Braves vs Dodgers
Play on: Braves +130 at sportsbook

FREE PLAY on Braves +130

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Dustin Hawkins Oct 12 '20, 8:08 PM in 2h
MLB | ATL vs LAD
Play on: OVER 8 -110

1 Dimer on Braves vs Dodgers over 8 -110

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Totals Guru Oct 12 '20, 8:08 PM in 2h
MLB | ATL vs LAD
Play on: OVER 8 -110

Free Total Annihilator On Braves vs Dodgers over 8 -110

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Ben Burns Oct 12 '20, 8:08 PM in 2h
MLB | Braves vs Dodgers
Play on: Braves +1½ -155 at Mirage

The Dodgers are an excellent team and they've been dominating opponents. The Braves are pretty hot themselves though and they virtually never lose with Fried (7-0, 2.42 ERA) on the mound. It only happened once all season, in fact. Overall, the Braves were 12-1 when he started. That lone loss was more than a month ago and they've since responded to win his next four starts by a combined score of 34-11. Buehler is definitely tough but he also hasn't gone deep in a game all season. In a game which could well be close, consider Atlanta on the run-line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers Oct 12 '20, 8:15 PM in 3h
NFL | Chargers vs Saints
Play on: Chargers +7 -110 at Buckeye

The set-up: LA had a late melt-down last week in Tampa and it left with a 38-31 loss. New Orleans was just 1-2 when it headed to Detroit last weekend, but it came from behind to win 35-29 in a much tighter contest than expected. I believe that the banged up Saints offense will have its hands full here vs. this tough Chargers defense though which is allowing only 23.8 PPG. The Saints have allowed 30.8 PPG and without WR Michael Thomas in the line-up tonight, I have a hard time seeing the home side recreating last week's offensive performance.
The pick: Note as well that New Orleans is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home and only 2-6 ATS in its last eight games played on Monday Night Football, while the Chargers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four on the road. Look for Justin Herbert, who threw for 290 yards and three TD's last weekend, to continue his progression as well. Bottom line, while the outright win is possible, in the end consider the points in this one.
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the Chargers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn Free Pick: Atlanta/LA Dodgers Over 8 Runs

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Razor Sharp YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR MONDAY: HOUSTON/TAMPA BAY OVER the total of 8 runs

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Totals4U Monday's Free Selection: Atlanta Braves to Win the NLCS Series + 185

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Roz Wins Roz's MONDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2020
Free Pick
966. Atl/LAD UNDER 8 (5:08 PT / 8:08 ET)

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#1 Sports Monday's Free Play: Atlanta Braves to Win the NLCS Series + 185

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Platinum Plays Your Free Pick: the LA Dodgers -225 to win the NLCS

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Sharp Bettor SharpBettor FREE Play MONDAY, October 12, 2020
MLB
966. Dodgers -1.46 (5:08 PT / 8:08 ET)

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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Monday Selection Is

Houston/Tampa Bay OVER 8 RUNS -115

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Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Monday : ATLANTA/LA DODGERS OVER the total of 8 runs

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Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Monday

Tampa Bay Morton

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Play: MLB Series Winner LA Dodgers -225

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Arthur Ralph

MON Houston w/ McCullers + 119

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The Last Call Monday's Late Free Play: Braves/Dodgers over 8

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Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Monday: HOUSTON/TAMPA BAY OVER the total

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Kenny Towers Your Free Pick for Monday: Houston/Tampa Bay OVER 8

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Elite Sports Picks

NFL Saints over 49.5

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Doc's Picks

MLB Braves under 8

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Stephen DeAngelo

Your Monday night total will be to play the Chargers-Saints game Over the total.


Los Angeles just was involved in a high-scoring affair last weekend in their loss to Tampa Bay, as the Chargers landed Over the total for the first time this season.


New Orleans has been involved in nothing but Overs so far this year. The Saints have allowed 11 touchdown passes to be thrown against them, so it is not surprising that they are allowing nearly 31 points per game to be scored on them. The Saints have responded though by posting an average of almost 31 points per game themselves.


With this game being played indoors and no remnants of Hurricane Delta to play havoc with the field, look for the highly-touted rookie Justin Herbert to trade scoring shots with the future Hall-of-Fame veteran Drew Brees as this Chargers-Saints game lands Over the total.

3* L.A. CHARGERS-NEW ORLEANS OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

Monday comp play will be for the Braves and Dodgers to hold Under the total in Game One of the N.L.C.S.

The Braves have played 5 postseason games so far and their pitching staff has been able to combine for shutouts in 4 of those 5 contests!

The Under coming through in 4 of those 5 games as well.

The Dodgers have also played 5 postseason games heading into this series and the Under has cashed in 3 of those 5 games.

Max Fried's season ERA is just 2.42, while Walker Buehler brings in a 3.43 ERA with the Under having gone 6-3-1 in his 10 starts this season.

Both teams have the bats to do some damage, but I see that damage coming a little later in this series since there are no off days between games.

Tonight belongs to the pitchers.

Braves-Dodgers Under the total.

4* ATLANTA-L.A. DODGERS UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan

My free play for Monday is on the Los Angeles Dodgers against the Atlanta Braves, as I like the pitching mismatch in this one.

Let me just say off the bat that I am well aware of Atlanta's success when Max Fried is on the hill. The Braves are 12-1 in his starts this season - including 2-0 this season.

But let's look at the body of work: Mets (2x), Rays, Blue Jays, Phillies (2x), Marlins (2x), Yankees, Red Sox and Nationals. In the postseason, the Reds and Marlins.

The Rays, Jays and Yankees made the postseason, but let's be real, the Jays... eh. And while the Marlins were an odd bird this season, they tagged Fried for four tuns last week in Game 1. Point is, I'm not impressed at all by the fact Atlanta was able to go 12-1 in his outings, especially when he had five no-decisions, including both playoff outings.

And, he's yet to face a lineup like the Dodgers, who are hitting .258 in the playoffs and have scored a league-high 46 runs in their seven playoff games.

I would rather back Walker Buehler, who Buehler starts his third Game 1 of the postseason after allowing three runs across eight innings (four frames in each). He has not thrown more than 95 pitches at any point in 2020 and will come in strong tonight.

Big win for the Dodgers, who tee off on Fried and take a 1-0 series lead.

1* DODGERS