Service Plays Sunday 5/17/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

CARMINE BIANCO
SOCCER PLAYS

SUNDAY 5% BUNDESLIGA TOP PLAY
Game: (202425) Mainz at (202426) FC Cologne
Date/Time: May 17 2020 9:30 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle (http://cappersmall2.com/lines.php)
Play Rating: 5%
Play: FC Cologne +105





German - Bundesliga - Mainz at FC Cologne


The Bundesliga becomes the first European league to restart their campaign albeit in empty stadiums but we'll look at that effect as the season progresses. Mainz come in 4 points above the relegation but with a tricky and tough first 5 games out of the gate on this restart they could find themselves closer to that relegation line if that are unable to pick up points. They'll travel to Cologne minus their starting goalkeeper who was injured before the break and is done for the season and will be without their leading scorer from last season who is suspended after picking up a red card in the last game before this break. Mainz have struggled away from Opel Arena with 4 wins 8 losses while being outscored 32-19. They'll face a Cologne side that are safe from the relegation zone and focus has now shifted to a possible run at 6th and a Europa League spot. After struggling at home in the first half of the season they've picked it up in the 2nd half and have won 5 of their last 6 at home losing only to league leaders Bayern Munich and have registered 4 clean sheets in the 5 victories and a 13-1 goal differential. They've gone 7W 1L 3D in competitve matches against Cologne (excludes friendlies). We'll take the plus money here with Cologne on Sunday morning.


The play is FC Cologne +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks Gulfstream Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#1 Like You
Class dropper has really picked his game in his last two, when being asked for more speed too, should offer a hint of value on the cutback, and will trip out too; call from close range.


#7 R U Lucky
The chalk romped two-back off the Joseph claim then regressed last time, so what you get today is a guess, yet the price will be on the underlaid side with Irad up; trying to beat on top.


#5 Prince Khozan
Turf runner is certainly bred for the main, and his only spin over it came on debut, so you can be a bit forgiving, especially since he's a much better horse now; do not ignore at a nice price.


Race Summary
That 4-1 ML would be very fair if you can get it on the 1, as this is a drop in class, he fits nicely on paper, and should have plenty of foundation off those route tries too, so play him to win and place, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win would add value to both sequences, in what could prove a tough puzzle for the betting public.


Gulfstream Park - Race #8


Picks
Notes


#3 Noble Thought
Maker veteran starts for one of the best marathon turf barns in the country, goes turf-to-dirt and second-off a near five-month layoff as well, lures Irad, and is clearly a more accomplished horse on the grass than on the main track; love his chances here.


#7 So High
Lightly raced Euro import now starts for Thomas, who knows how to train a nice horse, adds Lasix and runs as a first-time gelding too, plus has a ton of upside off just four starts, though the 12-month layoff says he may need one; tabbing for down the road.


#8 Rijeka
Deep closer seems at the mercy of the pace, though that's not as big of a deal with turf racing in this day and age, but this wide draw won't help him either, not to mention the top pair seem to have a lot more quality about them; using underneath, if at all.


Race Summary
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see this is the spot Maker had in mind all along for the 3, who looks primed with the dirt tightener behind him, and catches a field with only one to fear, and that one might not be cranked here either, so play him aggressively to win and place at 2-1 or better, while getting some additional value by singling him in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he looks like he's getting all the best of it, at least today.


Gulfstream Park - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#7 Beale Street
Closer stretched out and was a one-paced 5th behind a streaking winner in a slow-paced GIII marathon last time, but she's back with friends here, cuts back, and catches a group with plenty of pace to aid herrun; mows them all down.


#12 Miss Munnings
Tepid ML favorite will like the drop out of the local GIII, where she was a close and commendable 5th against much better, and her prior form is best here, but this post sure did her no favors; the gal to beat, with little margin for error.


#5 Traipsing
Lightly raced miss was up in time off the 18-month layoff last time, which is one heck of an accomplishment, and she's another who fits the race flow, though this is a much tougher group, for a suddenly cold Clement barn; tread ligihtly.


Race Summary
Pace makes the race and there's enough of it here to set up the 7, who looked good winning to-back and certainly didn't disgrace herself last time, in a spot she really had no chance in, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she's going to offer plenty of value, yet has every right to make a huge dent here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks Golden Gate - Race #6


Picks
Notes


#5 Exclusive Speaker
Has shown some tactical ability through two starts, and the move to the grass might be just what he needs for the push over the top.


#4 Inquisition
Has handled the turf in the past and should be finishing late, but he's getting short on excuses after a dozen tries.


#7 Kind of Gallant
He's probably too cheap to win this, but he's got blazing fast early speed and is going to dare them to come and get him in his turf debut.


Race Summary
Exclusive Speaker might like the new footing and figures to offer a fair price, and he can get a good trip tracking Kind of Gallant, who figures to make a break for it for at least a brief thrill.


Golden Gate - Race #10


Picks
Notes


#2 Concensus
His only real chance here is to go for it from the break with this draw near the inside, but several of these want to press the pace rather than set it, and if he breaks well, he might find himself in front with a chance to get brave at a price.


#5 Elegant Tanner
Should be right there throughout, and he's versatile enough to adapt to whatever pace scenario presents itself. He can press the splits or settle further back and finish.


#10 Cross Creek
Another one who can sit relatively close, and this draw near the outside might play in his favor to let his rider spy what's happening down near the rail and place him from there.


Race Summary
Concensus has the pace to be in the mix right from the start, and the hope is that a few of these pressing types will be happy to settle and wait while he finds his rhythm.


Golden Gate - Race #5


Picks
Notes


#1 Morning Cynn
Bred to handle the added ground, she's quickest from the inside and figures to find an easy enough lead in the early going.


#4 Ziarah
Tactical type should be right up on the splits with the top choice in a race that lacks much other serious pace. Tough to get past these two.


#6 Creative Romance
Might fall into the right sort of trip behind the top pair while racing clear of the closing crew, and that could be enough to keep her around for a piece of this.


Race Summary
Morning Cynn gets the front if they want it, and she's probably capable of getting there without too much trouble. From there it should just be a question of whether she can run to a pedigree that suggests this trip should be well within her scope.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks Remington Park - Race #1


Picks
Notes


#5 Mistr Downtown
Was 3rd two back, comes out of a tough race and can improve in his 3rd back.


#3 Jrs Lightning Bolt
Invades from Louisiana Downs, where he was 4th in his only start; big player from the start.


#2 Peanuts NV
Lost a photo last time out and makes his 16th attempt to break his maiden; can be close.


Race Summary
Mistr Downtown's effort two races back would probably win this and he comes out of a race that produced a repeat winner.


Remington Park - Race #2


Picks
Notes


#5 Coastal Confessions
Waltzed to an easy win vs. N2L allowance rivals and has the speed to get to the front here; has won 2 of 3 at the distance.


#1 Summerhills Hero
Was a convincing winner at Prairie Meadows to end 2019 and draws well for his 1st of this year; both 870 attempts were solid.


#2 Lota Legacy
Outlasted N2L company last out and can secure a good inside trip; a repeat is certainly not out of the question.


Race Summary
Coastal Confessions' last race was too good to ignore and he's clearly the one to beat in his return.


Remington Park - Race #3


Picks
Notes


#9 Baja Jessy
Was up in time in 3 of his last 5, including his only start here this year; can get a clean run from the outside and is the one to beat.


#7 Hott Link
Ran on for 4th last out looks like he'd be comfortable on the class drop.


#2 Coronado Heights
Beat N3L claimers two back and then was outrun in a much tougher spot; can get back to good form.


Race Summary
Baja Jessy was sharp in his 1st of the year, is 2 of 3 over the strip and can add another victory.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park



Remington Park - Race 9

Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11) (.50 Cent Minimum)



Claiming $12,500 • 400 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $10,400 • Post: 9:28P


QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * HEROSWIDEOPEN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. CORONA LOUISIANA BLU: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. J S VALENTINO: Quarter Horse has a F ast Break Style designation. FAST N FURIOUS 123: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ASIDE THE FIRE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.



1

HEROSWIDEOPEN

5/1


6/1




7

CORONA LOUISIANA BLU

3/1


7/1




3

J S VALENTINO

15/1


7/1




6

FAST N FURIOUS 123

4/1


7/1




10

ASIDE THE FIRE

12/1


7/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




1

HEROSWIDEOPEN

1


5/1

Fast

88


82


3.4


0.0


0.0




2

AJAX

2


6/1

Fast

82


73


2.0


0.0


0.0




3

J S VALENTINO

3


15/1

Fast

86


79


2.5


0.0


0.0




4

SEPERATE RAIN

4


20/1

Slow

68


69


7.4


0.0


0.0




5

TWO DASH CORONA

5


12/1

Slow

0


0


7.0


0.0


0.0




6

FAST N FURIOUS 123

6


4/1

Average

91


73


3.9


0.0


0.0




7

CORONA LOUISIANA BLU

7


3/1

Average

86


84


4.0


0.0


0.0




8

CAPISCI

8


10/1

Slow

86


80


6.2


0.0


0.0




9

KEYSTONESCOUNTRYBOY

9


8/1

Average

87


74


4.0


0.0


0.0




10

ASIDE THE FIRE

10


12/1

Average

84


83


5.4


0.0


0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields

Golden Gate Fields - Race 9

$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 min) $2 Rolling Double / $1 Rolling Super High Five



Optional Claiming $62,500 • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 104 • Purse: $32,000 • Post: 4:53P


FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $62,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE MARCH 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $62,500 (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $50,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES ONLY).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BRANDOTHEBARTENDER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SPARTICLE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Eq uibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. OISEAU DE GUERRE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DADDYSPRIZE: Horse's win percentage a t today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



3

BRANDOTHEBARTENDER

5/2


9/2




1

SPARTICLE

6/1


6/1




5

OISEAU DE GUERRE

2/1


7/1




8

DADDYSPRIZE

10/1


7/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




8

DADDYSPRIZE

8


10/1

Front-runner

99


103


110.9


83.4


73.4




1

SPARTICLE

1


6/1

Front-runner

108


103


103.2


96.8


88.3




2

DARNQUICK

2


20/1

Front-runner

80


77


94.3


73.0


58.0




7

JIVE TALKIN

7


7/2

Stalker

93


92


87.6


85.7


76.7




6

AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM

6


15/1

Stalker

89


89


75.9


71.1


59.6




5

OISEAU DE GUERRE

5


2/1

Trailer

103


101


88.6


99.4


93.9




3

BRANDOTHEBARTENDER

3


5/2

Trailer

110


100


60.1


101.4


98.9




4

LYMEBYRD

4


10/1

Trailer

106


105


39.8


86.3


79.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Gulfstream Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:46pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#4 DAZZLING PROSE (ML=7/2)


DAZZLING PROSE - Have to give this gelding a good chance. Ran a good race in the last race within the last 30 days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 GEONOSIS (ML=7/5), #5 RED FOG (ML=3/1), #8 DARDANELLOS (ML=5/1),

GEONOSIS - I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Extended vacation and no drop in level of competition. RED FOG - In this circumstance, this questionable contender's inability to close ground in the last event is a matter of concern. DARDANELLOS - I just don't possess a good vibe about this questionable contender in this race.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #4 DAZZLING PROSE to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Stakes - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 108

DESERT STORMER S. - GRADE 3 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH TO ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $2,000 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. $750 TO ENTER AND AN ADDITIONAL $750 TO START WITH $100,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH $60,000 TO THE WINNER, $20,000 TO SECOND, $12,000 TO THIRD, $6,000 TO FOURTH AND $2,000 TO FIFTH.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 5 BELLAFINA 6/5




# 3 MOTHER MOTHER 5/2




# 7 TOMLIN 12/1




BELLAFINA is my choice. Earning some nice money in dirt sprint races. Has a very strong shot for this event if you like back class. Boasts formidable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group of horses in this race. MOTHER MOTHER - Should be given consideration based on the competitive speed rating recorded in the last contest. Has run admirably when running a dirt sprint race. TOMLIN - With a sound 94 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition. Should definitely be considered in this contest if only for the formidable Equibase Speed Fig earned in the last competition.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 80

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 4 ROUGH PASSAGE 9/5




# 6 CANNES 7/2




# 1 ACHIEVED 5/1




My pick for this event is ROUGH PASSAGE. Always seems to be close up at the wire. Must be carefully examined given the class of races run as of late. Has earned formidable speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. CANNES - Could beat this group of horses given the 78 speed figure earned in his last outing. He has a good opportunity in this race as conditioner, Heredia, has solid win clip with horses going this distance. ACHIEVED - Players ought to take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group. He looks very good in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Churchill Downs - Race #5 - Post: 3:04pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $36,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#1 ELITE CLASS (ML=6/1)
#7 DEAN MARTINI (ML=2/1)
#2 NILES CHANNEL (ML=10/1)
#10 LIBERTY'S PURSUIT (ML=10/1)
#6 WHATA PERFECT DAY (ML=6/1)


ELITE CLASS - Ortiz and Walsh perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +363 ROI for a jockey and conditioner. The Feb 15th race at Fair Grounds was at a class level of (94). Dropping down in class considerably, so he should be in a good position. DEAN MARTINI - Entered last at Oaklawn Park in a race with an Equibase class figure of 94. Dropping significantly in class rating today puts him in a solid position today. When a pony finishes on the board as often as this gelding does, you will usually want to use him in your exotic wagers. The 85 most recent race speed rating looks strong in the TrackMaster PPs. Ranked number one in earnings per start. Another indicator that this horse is the class of the field. NILES CHANNEL - I'm figuring this thoroughbred to run a big race this time out. LIBERTY'S PURSUIT - You always have to be on the lookout for profit making rider/trainer teams; we have it right here. While the finish was disappointing, this mount made a good stretch move last time around the track at Gulfstream Park. Has to do better in today's race. WHATA PERFECT DAY - Have to forget about that last race on the turf. This gelding should do better hitting the main track in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 BOURBON WISDOM (ML=5/1), #5 SMIRK (ML=6/1),

BOURBON WISDOM - Awfully difficult to bet on this steed when he hasn't been showing any signs of life lately. A come from behinder like this one needs a ding-dong battle to set things up and he isn't likely to get one this time out. SMIRK - Hasn't been close at all recently.






STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #1 ELITE CLASS to win if we can get at least 5/1 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,2] Box [1,10]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

[1,2,7] with [1,2,6,7,10] with [1,2,6,7,10] Total Cost: $36



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[1,7] with [1,2,7] with [1,2,6,7,10] with [1,2,6,7,10] Total Cost: $24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park



05/17/20, GP, Race 8, 4.21 ET
05/17/20,GP,8,1 1/2M [Turf] 2:22:03 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $46,000 (includes up to $7,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $35,000. Weight, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Over A Mile On The Turf SinceApril 17 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $35,000 (Races Where Entered For $30,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (Condition Eligibility). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile andOne Quarter) (Rail at 84 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.00
3
Noble Thought
3-1
Ortiz. Jr. I
Maker Michael J.
JFEC
34.41
1.20/$1


097.42
7
(F)So High (GB)
2-1
Saez L
Thomas Jonathan
T
23.08
1.20/$1


096.12
4
Rhythmia
12-1
Davis D
Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.
L
23.38
0.83/$1


095.46
8
Rijeka (IRE)
9/2
Lebron V
Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.


23.38
0.83/$1


094.98
1
Prince of Arabia
4-1
Bravo J
Biancone Patrick L.
S
24.32
1.25/$1


093.93
5
Duc de Calas (FR)
8-1
Jaramillo E
Clement Christophe


30.00
1.10/$1


092.67
6
Musical Heart
20-1
Berrios H I
Miller Herbert
W
23.38
0.83/$1


092.19
2
Shendam (FR)
20-1
Zayas E J
Sweezey J. Kent


30.00
1.10/$1


* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 28.26, ROI 0.89/$1
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.00
3
Noble Thought
3-1
Ortiz. Jr. I
Maker Michael J.
JFEC
25.64
1.06/$1


099.10
4
Rhythmia
12-1
Davis D
Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.
L
25.64
1.06/$1


099.01
7
(F)So High (GB)
2-1
Saez L
Thomas Jonathan
T
27.52
1.01/$1


097.22
6
Musical Heart
20-1
Berrios H I
Miller Herbert
W
25.64
1.06/$1


095.95
8
Rijeka (IRE)
9/2
Lebron V
Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.


25.64
1.06/$1


093.29
5
Duc de Calas (FR)
8-1
Jaramillo E
Clement Christophe


25.64
1.06/$1


093.18
2
Shendam (FR)
20-1
Zayas E J
Sweezey J. Kent


25.64
1.06/$1


092.08
1
Prince of Arabia
4-1
Bravo J
Biancone Patrick L.
S
25.64
1.06/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.90, ROI 0.95/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park



05/17/20, SA, Race 10, 5.08 PT
05/17/20,SA,10,1M [Dirt] 1:33:02 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $51,000 (plus up to $15,300 CBOIF - California Bred Owner Fund). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Other Than Claiming, Or Starter At A Mile Or Over Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000 (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $25,000 Or Less In Their Last 3 Starts Preferred).
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.


Rating
P#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags
WPC
ROI *


100.00
9
Striking a Pose
8-1
Van Dyke D
Glatt Mark
SFW
39.42
1.66/$1


098.00
2
Winning Element
5/2
Prat F
Hanson Ryan
T
36.05
1.26/$1


096.52
1
Lambeau
3-1
Smith M E
Shirreffs John A.


39.42
1.66/$1


096.16
6
Soldier Boy
5-1
Velez J I
Sadler John W.


39.42
1.66/$1


095.71
13
Tizamagician
3-1
Espinoza V
Mandella Richard E.


41.89
1.52/$1


095.48
12
Canyon Crest
15-1
Prat F
McCarthy Michael W.
C
41.89
1.52/$1


095.01
8
Swamp Souffle
10-1
Gutierrez M
Knapp Steve


36.05
1.26/$1


094.09
4
Sash (GB)
12-1
Cedillo A
Glatt Mark


39.42
1.66/$1


093.75
3
Unbroken Star
15-1
Espinoza A
Puype Mike


39.42
1.66/$1


093.43
5
Kiss Today Goodbye
5-1
Rispoli U
Kruljac J. Eric


37.24
1.33/$1


092.91
11
Take the One O One
15-1
Valdivia. Jr. J
Koriner Brian J.
EL
39.42
1.66/$1


092.78
14
Heartfullofstars
20-1
Flores E
Alvarez Edwin


39.42
1.66/$1


091.24
7
Justin's Quest
20-1
Maldonado E A
Marques Manuel F.


39.42
1.66/$1


091.22
10
Truth Seeker
15-1
Pereira T J
Miyadi Steven


39.42
1.66/$1


* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.25, ROI 4.07/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 5/17

Sun May 17, 2020 6:52 am
Ended up going 4-1 overall with the UFC picks and we cashed with the ponies yesterday with Arch Ability winning and picking up the 10-12 exacta for $32. Today I have three from Churchill Downs.

Race 1
#11 Liam's Lookout $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 11-1-2

Race 7
#6 Lost Ticket $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 6-8-4

Race 9
#3 My Man Flintstone $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 3-9-7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Park Wagering Strategies - 5/17/20 May 17, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Sunday, May 17, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Workout Analysis: View PDF File (https://www.santaanita.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Workout200517X.pdf)
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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Shines Her Light; 8-Lofty; 10-Querelle

Forecast: Lofty is a true course specialist, being perfect in three starts sprinting over the Santa Anita turf course, and she’ll be a short price to extend her streak while tackling open first-level allowance company today. The M. McCarthy-trained filly is clearly the quickest in the field and if she clears early without much effort she’ll be very difficult to catch, but at a short price. For back-ups you may want to consider Querelle, stuck way outside but a prototype late-running turf sprinter who will be rolling late but will need somebody else to soften up the favorite, and Shines Her Light, a reasonable maiden winner over this course and distance in her U.S. debut in early February and with every right to produce a forward move for the hot J. Sadler barn.
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RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Single: 1 – Miss Glorious

Forecast: There are too many unknowns in the first 2-year-old race of the year to have any real conviction in this four-and-one-half furlong dash but Miss Glorious did display good speed in the one workout that we were able to view (click on our workout report above) and as a daughter of Goldencents she has every right to win right now. Let’s hope that she breaks running from the rail and shows the kind of speed we believe she has. There are others in here that have credentials as well, so the best advice is to tread lightly.
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RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Afternoon Heat; 4-Whooping Jay

Forecast: Although he hasn’t been out since February of 2019, Whooping Jay has proven he can fire fresh – he won his debut by more than five lengths – and the son of Square Eddie has given every impression in recent drills that he retains all of his speed. This state-bred first-level allowance sprint doesn’t have a whole lot of early zip signed on, so if ‘Jay breaks running he should be in the first flight throughout with every chance at 4-1 on the morning line for the always potent O’Neill/Gutierrez team. Afternoon Heat looked good easily handling a starter’s allowance field over this track in early March while earning his typical solid figure. A repeat of that race makes him tough on the raise, but we’re a bit concerned that his lack of gate speed from his rail post could spell trouble. We’ll use him as a back-up in our rolling exotic play but the main push goes to Whooping Jay.
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RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Lovely Finish; 10-Liberalism

Forecast: Liberalism has been away since last August but the work tab at Los Alamitos should have her fit enough to fire a winning shot off the bench for a barn that has solid stats with layoff runners. The daughter of Broke Vow, runner-up in both of her starts at Del Mar, lands hot riding U. Rispoli, is comfortably drawn outside, and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Lovely Finish is clearly the fastest mare in the field based strictly on speed figures and her sharp runner-up to Big Sweep (while almost eight lengths clear of the rest) in a similar spot in March was franked with ‘Sweep returned to beat the colts in a stakes sprint yesterday. The main concern is the barn, which has yet to win a race this year, and the 10-pound bug rider, who has yet to win race, anywhere. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with a very slight edge on top to Liberalism.
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RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 7-I Am Innocent; 9-Bud Knight

Forecast: State-bred maidens meet over a mile on grass in a challenging affair. I Am Innocent closed with interest to be a good runner-up in his debut and if he can transfer that dirt sprint form to two-turns on grass the son of Square Eddie will have an excellent chance to earn his diploma at a decent price. It’s been awhile since the B. Cecil stable has recorded a victory but in a moderate affair this Reddam homebred 3-year-old likely has upside that most of the others don’t and the recent work tab indicates improvement is probable. We’ll be happy if he leaves at or near his morning line of 6-1. Bud Knight is an eight-race maiden but finished second over this course and distance vs. similar in his last start in early February and not much more will be needed today. The speed figure earned in that race is better than par for this level and the third place finisher in that race already has come back to frank the form and win.
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RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Tiger Dad; 7-Collusion Illusion

Forecast: Tiger Dad turns back to a sprint and a repeat of his ultra-impressive first-level allowance victory over this track and distance two runs back makes him the one to beat in a field lacking in the type of early speed that you’d normally see in a race like this. The son of Smiling Tiger should be comfortably placed either on the lead or just off it and then have every chance to duplicate his best effort. First or second in seven of 13 career starts, the C. Gaines-trained gelding retains regular pilot V. Espinoza and has run very well off brief vacations in the past Collusion Illusion, away since last September and tackling older rivals for the first time, lands the cozy outside post and could be a factor if he returns as well as he left. Winner of the Best Pal S.-G2 as a 2-year-old with a good speed figure, the M. Glatt-trained son of Twirling Candy has been working like he’s fit and could easily be better and faster after being given plenty of time to grow up and mature. St. Joe Bay was a beaten choice at Oaklawn Park while lacking his old speed and it’s possible the veteran gelding has lost a step or two along the way. But he’s a classy old pro and can’t be counted out while returning to the optional $62,500 ranks for the first time since being claimed for this price almost two years ago.
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RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Sweet Devil; 3-Crystal Ball

Forecast: Crystal Ball has displayed plenty of promise in the a.m. and debuts over a mile – never an easy task – after being trained like a route-type in several of her recent drills (easy early, strong through the lane). This is a better than average field of maiden fillies and mares but this $750,000 2-year-old in training purchase gives every indication that she’s better than “better than average.” Sweet Devil displayed promise in a pair of starts during the winter and has been kept on edge with a series of steady, easy drills in the interim. This will be her first start on dirt but if she can transfer her grass form to the main track the daughter of Daredevil will be hard to beat, especially from her favorable draw. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; at 5-1 on the morning line Crystal Ball looks intriguing so we’ll put her slightly on top.
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RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: X
Use: 1-Fighting Mad; 5-Bellafina

Forecast: Bellafina is top class when she wants to be but is almost impossible to trust, having failed as the favorite no less than five times in her 14 race career, most recently at 7/5 in a stakes at Oaklawn Park last month when she broke slowly, lost position, and then ran off down the backstretch before understandably packing it in after a half mile. If she leaves cleanly today, the daughter of Quality Road should return to winning form, but at 6/5 on the morning line you know she’s going to be a heavy favorite once again. Fighting Mad is an extremely talented filly and could give Bellafina some serious competition, but this will be her first start since August and this race could be nothing more than a springboard to more serious two-turn races down the road. The daughter of New Year’s Day trains in the morning like future star but sprinting from the rail in her first start in nine months is problematic, to say the least. We’ll include her on a ticket or two as a back-up, but the main push must go to Bellafina.
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RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Establish Justice; 10-Sutro; 11-Pasito

Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag for restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming fillies and mares over a mile. Anything goes. Sutro drops into a seller for the first time and her only career win was accomplished over this course back in the winter of 2019. She missed most of the last year and the connections thought enough of her to protect her in two comeback races, so in this league the five-year-old mare may be able to get some of her confidence back. She’s a deep closer that will need racing luck and a decent pace to have her best chance. Let’s also include a couple of 12-1 shots on our ticket. Establish Justice had a bit of self-caused trouble when fifth of six in a tougher starter’s allowance turf miler in late February but if she can settle early, get some cover and then find daylight at the head of the lane the daughter of Constitution has a chance to at least outrun her price. She’s looked pretty good in the a.m. of late and with just six career starts she’s not quite as exposed as some of the others. Pasito is hung way outside and just beat a weak band of maiden $20,000 distaffers on the main track, but the number wasn’t bad, and this will be her first start on turf. As a daughter of More Than Ready, why can’t she move up on it? Also, hot rider U. Rispoli stays aboard, so there’s that.
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RACE 10: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Winning Element; 3-Unbroken Star; 5-Kiss Today Goodbye; 9-Striking a Pose

Forecast: The finale is a main track raffle for entry-level allowance older horses. Winning Element is facing more heat today than he he’s been used to seeing but his current form for hot trainer R. Hansen cannot be ignored. The City Zip gelding has a good stalking style that should keep him free of trouble and has speed figures that are a solid fit at this level. Striking a Pose won at first asking like a useful sort for M. Glatt, has done quite nicely in his morning preps since, and should be a live item despite today’s tougher task. The son of Majesticperfection projects to be part of the pace and then have his chance to show what he’s made of when the pressure is turned on. U. Rispoli, who rode ‘Pose in that debut win, jumps off to stay aboard Kiss Today Goodbye, a big figure maiden special weight winner at this one mile trip in late February. The son of Cairo Prince likely will settle somewhere in mid-pack and have dead aim from the quarter pole home. Unbroken Star will need to improve significantly in the numbers department but he’s a progressive son of Broken Vow fresh from a nice starter’s allowance win over this track and distance and continues to show well in his morning workouts. If there’s a hot pace – and there may very well be – he’ll be running on late at 12-1 on the morning line.