Service Plays Monday 4/27/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-27-2020, 06:38 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #1

#1 Banana Pepper	Newcomer gets a huge trainer change to Martinez, takes a confident rise to a spot he can't be claimed from, and meets a crew of locals there for the taking; too tough for these.
#4 Run for Matty	The best of the locals moved way up in his second start, and more forward tick will make him tough, though he'll need it with the pick likely moving way up too; second-best.
#7 Shattered Dreams	Underlay predictably regressed on the class rise last time, so this 3-1 ML is just wrong, but even at twice that he's a bit tough to trust; limiting his use to underneath, if at all.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 1 but he now starts for arguably the best barn on the backstretch and was probably facing better at MVR last time to begin with, so play him aggressively to win and place at 9-5 or better, which getting some additional value by singling him to kick off the early Pk5, as he's likely going to be laying down a race the rest of these simply won't be able to handle.

Fonner Park - Race #5

#5 Mascarpone	Class dropper didn't run poorly at all off the long layoff last time, when in against tons better than he meets here, so off that tightener, he may be primed; look out.
#7 Jomo	Lifetime maiden finally got it done last time, and with aplomb to, and you'll often see these types win right back after they finally break through; would be no surprise.
#8 Masterpiece Day	Tricky read has the good race-bad race thing going, which suggests he may regress today, so from a wide draw at underlaid odds, let's make him prove it; trying to beat.
Race Summary	Another bad ML at Fonner, as the 5 might be less than half that 10-1 ML, as this is a seismic class drop, but even at 4-1 against a group like this you'd be getting enough risk-reward to give him a look in all the slots, and you can get some added value by using him to end the early Pk5/Pk4, and kick off the late Pk5 as well, as it doesn't take a lot of creativity to think this is the spot they had in mind all along when they ran him off the 11-month layoff last time, in a spot where he couldn't be claimed.

Fonner Park - Race #6

#8 Gold Eclipse	Stalker was a good 3rd at the level going shorter last time, has the tactical speed to sit off what looks like a very heated pace, and should offer value too; upset special.
#7 Lovthatcause	Heavy hitter just aired by 9 and now meets tough, and he did well to draw outside the other speed, but pressing the entire way and holding won't be easy; still, plenty scary.
#3 Overanalyzer	ML favorite was a distant 2nd at odds-on last time and now faces a tougher group, and he'll be pressed on both sides, which won't help him in the lane; comes unglued late.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here, and that will really help the 8, while likely hurting both the 3 and 7, so play him in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, as he looks like he's getting all the best of it here, and that may be enough to make up the difference he's lacking on figures to get to the two favorites.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-27-2020, 06:38 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3

#1 Internet Express	Willing to take a swing in here off the Sam Houston debut, as he has since come back with a decent 3f drill in advance of this. Cabrera signs on, which gives this one enough intrigue at a price.
#9 Our Vision	Probably the one to beat off the Remington form, but he tends to give away ground late, and that could be his undoing again here.
#7 Tommyhawk	Showed some mild finishing ability in the debut run, and that may serve him well in a spot where most of the logical players don't have a lot of late kick.
Race Summary	Internet Express has a little upside with just the one start under his belt, and though he never got involved that day, this isn't the scariest group.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #5

#9 Chiron Eclipse	Showed a bit of chasing pace before going the wrong way in the lane, but she can probably stick around better with that debut run under her belt and draws well for a spying trip on the drop.
#1 Los Suenos	Pace has had a dozen chances, but she's not meeting the quickest field early, so there's some chance she can clear from the rail draw and get brave for a big piece of this.
#8 Landry Kyle	Didn't really fire over the muddy going last out, but she can improve on dry land today. Her Remington tries stack up well here, but I wouldn't want too short a number to see if she's getting back to them.
Race Summary	Chiron Eclipse probably isn't offering all of that 6/1 ML price, but she's still interesting at something like 4/1 on the drop. Her debut run wasn't bad when hanging around until midstretch, and she can presumably step forward off that run.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #9

#8 She's Shiney	Best stuff would be good enough here, and she ran a pretty good one in the Wilma Mankiller in the comeback try. While her ceiling can't be much higher than that last effort, it's worth noting that she took a big step forward in her second start off the break here last year.
#6 Three Chords	Probably makes short work of these off the tries with better at Oaklawn, and she was very tough with the company at Remington Park prior to that. Most likely winner becomes unappealing in a hurry at too short a price.
#4 Runaround Rosey	Interesting player has the pace to mix it up from the start, and she brings another flashy bullet work with her to this second run off the bench. She'd appreciate a fast main track, but even if she's sitting on a huge one, her ceiling probably isn't high enough to land more than an underneath share.
Race Summary	She's Shiney can be a real hassle for Three Chords if she moves forward even a small bit off the comeback try. She draws outside of the serious pace in here and can hopefully get towed into the splits and make that first pressing run count.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-27-2020, 06:39 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #2

#3 Miss Elise	Rallied strongly to 2nd into the stretch and then hung late; gets change to high percentage rider in Jake Olesiak and can finish the job this time.
#5 Bee Merry	Comes in off a decent 3rd and can benefit from a hot pace; figures into the exotics mix.
#8 Lovesaflyin	Is extremely fast but has not been able to take that speed beyond a half-mile; can clear from the outside and should find this dip in class more comfortable.
Race Summary	Miss Elise couldn't ride late momentum into the winner's circle and can has a good chance to get a better-timed move here.

Fonner Park - Race #3

#7 Hyper Drive	Has been pressing early more than usual lately and is capable from coming from out of it; could get a good pace setup here.
#5 Witt'sdollarnight	Was 2nd going long two back and also was runner-up last time while sprinting; can be in close attendance and will be a solid player late.
#2 Point Hope	Drops out of stronger races and can be around for the end of this one; Gonzalez barn still hitting at 21 percent.
Race Summary	Hyper Drive has been on the board in all three of his local races and can make a late run at these.

Fonner Park - Race #4

#1 Warrior's Lullaby	Was up in plenty of time vs. similar company last time and goes for his 3rd straight score; Armando Martinez has been red hot lately (23 percent) and rides for Kelli Martinez, who also has had an impressive season (23 wins, 29 percent). can get the candy again.
#3 Smarty Party Papa	Was in the mix throughout and held 3rd last time; runs well at this level and figures in the hunt.
#4 Bandwidth	Was 2nd in his last three and drops out of an allowance race and was runner-up in a similar race two back; is always in the mix and fits with these.
Race Summary	Warrior's Lullaby is on a roll and has taken three of his last four and has done well since being claimed for $5,000 in December; was a winner at Keeneland last fall, which looks particularly good on his resume here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-27-2020, 10:20 AM

Most Valuable Pony (April 20-26): Volatile

April 27, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
Each Monday, I’ll select my Most Valuable Pony from the previous week’s racing action around the country. Who won the week? It could be a breakout performer, a known stakes commodity or the horse lifting the most loot. Chime in on Twitter @Xpressbet with your thoughts on who should be each week’s MVP.

April 20-26, 2020

MVP: Volatile

Owner: Phoenix Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Ricardo Santana

Performance: In a week of stakes sprints at Oaklawn, it was an allowance performer who proved fastest of them all. The 4-year-old Volatile made his 2020 debut a rousing success April 25 in an effort that points him a possible successor to retired ex-barnmate and last year’s Champion Sprinter Mitole. Volatile crushed his foes by 7-1/2 lengths and ran 6 furlongs in 1:08.48, easily out-clocking any challenger over a very good weekend of sprint racing. The $850,000 yearling buy by Violence has won 3 of 4 lifetime starts since his July 2019 debut at Ellis Park.

On Tap: Who knows what the stakes schedule will offer in the near future? But there’s little doubt this one will have the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Keeneland in the autumn as a circle on the calendar. He’ll need to prove himself against better stakes competition, likely to come in Kentucky and New York when those venues reopen. By comparison, Mitole’s campaign to a Breeders’ Cup Sprint title included stops in the Churchill Downs Handicap, Met Mile, Vanderbilt and Forego.

Honorable Mentions: April 25 Oaklawn sprint stakes winners Mia Mischief and Long Weekend turned in exemplary efforts in the Carousel and Bachelor, respectively. Mia Mischief dominated a strong group that included Bellafina by more than 4 lengths for her 10th lifetime win. She pushed her earnings over $1.2 million. Long Weekend added to his Gazebo Stakes win at the meet by taking the Bachelor in a stretch-long throwdown over Echo Town. At Gulfstream on April 25, Dr. Post made a house call in the Unbridled Stakes for his first stakes win. The son of Quality Road and Madison winner Mary Delaney could be a late bloomer on the Derby trail for Todd Pletcher. And finally, elite 3-year-old sprinter No Parole bounced back from a failed route experiment in the Rebel to dust an April 25 Oaklawn allowance for his fourth win in five tries.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-27-2020, 10:21 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 8	Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (.10) / Daily Double Pick 3 (.50) (Races 8-9-10)
Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 95 • Purse: $27,500 • Post: 4:45P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $30,000 TWICE AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2019 - 2020 ALLOWED 3 LBS. $30,000 SUCH A RACE IN 2019 - 2020 ALLOWED 6 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. FLIRTY is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * BAYDAR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BLUE MOONRISE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. INAGOODWAY: Hor se's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
8	BAYDAR	2/1	7/2
3	BLUE MOONRISE	5/2	7/2
10	INAGOODWAY	10/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	BAYDAR	8	2/1	Front-runner	95	88	97.2	86.8	83.3
3	BLUE MOONRISE	3	5/2	Front-runner	96	95	88.3	88.1	84.1
10	INAGOODWAY	10	10/1	Front-runner	90	87	74.3	72.8	60.3
7	YIELD	7	8/1	Stalker	84	74	65.9	77.2	66.2
4	TIC TOC TOCCET	4	20/1	Stalker	85	66	64.3	67.8	53.8
6	AUBREY	6	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	91	75	62.2	72.8	58.3
9	FLIRTY	9	12/1	Trailer	83	79	49.4	74.2	63.2
5	BROADWAY COUNTY	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	81	78.7	55.8	43.8
1	FOOL'S PARADISE	1	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	93	92	74.2	69.6	61.6
2	LABHAY (IRE)	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	74	58.8	61.6	45.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-27-2020, 10:21 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Fonner Park - Race #9 - Post: 7:36pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $5,400 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#2 MAXIMUS THE GREAT (ML=5/1)
#4 TAYLOR'S PRINCE (ML=5/2)

MAXIMUS THE GREAT - This gelding is in exceptional form right now. Ended up third last time around the track and comes back promptly. TAYLOR'S PRINCE - A thoroughbred coming back this rapidly after a sharp race is a good omen.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MERLO'S LAD (ML=4/1), #6 BRETT'S BOY (ML=6/1), #8 BE STORMY (ML=8/1),

MERLO'S LAD - There's speed, zip, and more zip in this event. Doesn't look too promising for this animal. BRETT'S BOY - A pattern of lessening speed figs 83/79/73 for this mount. BE STORMY - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint contests recently. Improbable to see him doing it in today's event either.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - TAYLOR'S PRINCE - On a tight track, my analysis says the advantage goes to the speed demon in posts 1 thru 4. That's the situation we have here, so take a good look at this gelding.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #2 MAXIMUS THE GREAT on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-27-2020, 10:22 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8400 Class Rating: 90

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. NEBRASKA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 LOVETHATCAUSE 7/2
# 3 OVERANALYZER 5/2
# 2 COMMANDER MCDIVITT 9/2

I back LOVETHATCAUSE here. Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figs of this group in his last race. Has been racing admirably and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. I would give the nod to this gelding on the rider and trainer numbers alone. OVERANALYZER - Lately Martinez has been hot which may give the edge to this gelding. Ran a solid last race. COMMANDER MCDIVITT - Should go to the lead and may never look back. The speed figure of 90 from his latest race looks very strong in here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-27-2020, 10:23 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Will Rogers Downs - Race #1 - Post: 1:15pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,250 Class Rating: 86

Rating:

#1 SAND HARBOR (ML=20/1)
#7 MR MIDTOWN (ML=6/1)
#9 SURVEY (ML=9/2)

SAND HARBOR - Really have to believe this mount is going to be really close at the wire. MR MIDTOWN - Young has this gelding signed up for the perfect race. SURVEY - Gelding had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. Look at this pattern of improvement. 58/71/78 are the last 3 Equibase speed figs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SPIRIT MISSION (ML=7/2), #8 CONSUMERCONFIDENCE (ML=5/1), #6 TOUCH 'EM UP (ML=6/1),

SPIRIT MISSION - Hasn't raced or had any morning blow outs since March 2nd. Not much value on this chalk horse. CONSUMERCONFIDENCE - When looking at today's class rating, he will have to notch a better speed rating than last time out to vie in this dirt route. TOUCH 'EM UP - Hard to play a pony that can't even win one time in his last ten races. Last performed on April 13th at Will Rogers Downs, finishing sixth. Not likely to improve off of that outing in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 SAND HARBOR to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,7,9] with [1,7,9] with [1,5,6,7,9] with [1,5,6,7,9] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-27-2020, 06:13 PM

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 4/27

Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:09 am
First two races were duds but Erv's Wench wins the 8th at Gulfstream and pays $18.80, $10.40 and $6.00 across the board to make it a good day. Today I have two from Will Rogers. Goodluck.

Race 2
#3 Brew Casa $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 3-1-8

Race 9
#10 Lady Orchid $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 10-6-2

Service Plays Monday 4/27/20

Service Plays Monday 4/27/20

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