Service Plays Monday 3/30/20

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Brian Nadeau

Fonner Park - Race #2

#9 My Lady J Price player has finished behind a few here in her last two but now goes third-off the long layoff, has a closing gear in a field loaded with early speed, and figures to be completely overlooked on the board as well; bombs away in the lane.
#2 Taylor's Beauty ML favorite is another who will like all the speed she can rally into, and that 2nd last time makes her a threat here, but it's not like she was close to the winner, and the eight straight losses she owns is a worry as well; trying to beat on top.
#1 Aunt Gale The best of the speeds takes a slight drop in class too after just missing in 2nd last time, so clearly she's a big threat here, but fending off the outside pace players, kicking clear, and holding off the top pair is a big ask; comes unglued late.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here, and that should really set up both the 9 and the 2, so play the former in all the slots, box the pair in the EX, and use them both in the early Pk5, and to kick off the Pk4 as well (which both had large pools last week), since this one has a good chance to melt down in the lane, and they'll both have a big chance to pick up all the pieces.

Fonner Park - Race #6

#5 Zyxyz Class dropper was in too tough last time from a tough outside draw too, but she's back with friends here, drew better, will gets some pace to run into, and will be a price; upset special.
#4 Mongoll Call Class riser looked good winning off the break, and she did it on the lead too, but this is a much tougher group here, and you wonder if she regresses off such a big return; second-best.
#7 Stalker Capable miss was a closing 2nd at the level last time, albeit in a slow race, so while the pace will help, she's a big underlay at this 5-2 ML, wit no edge on paper either; rallies for a share.
Race Summary That 5-1 ML on the pick sure seems fair, especially on the class drop, and in a race with some speed too, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5 as well (which should have a big, big pool), since a win in the $10 range would add some value to the sequence, in a race that seems there for the taking with two potentially vulnerable favorites as well.

Fonner Park - Race #8

#6 Out of Patience Turf Paradise runner doesn't have any early speed but has been facing better of late, fits like a glove on figures, and should offer a hint of value as well; look out.
#4 Bigshot Lacewell Remington invader hasn't been out since November but those were better he was facing, even in the state-bred ranks, and the price will be right; do not ignore.
#7 Banjo Bill The one to catch and beat wins this if he runs back to his last, but it was in the mud, his fast track form isn't nearly as good, and he'll be overbet too; tread lightly.
Race Summary The drop in class might be all the 6 needs to make a dent here, and with the potential vulnerability of the 7 he looks even more appealing, so play him in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5 as well (which should have a big, big pool), as a win will add plenty of value to the sequence, and he has every right to run huge here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jonathon Kinchen

Late Pick 4 at Will Rogers Downs begins with Race 7 at 5:15 p.m. ET and goes through Race 10.

Will Rogers Downs 7th
7 First Metal Count (10-1)
Has been running competitive numbers at the Fair Grounds, which has recently closed due to COVID-19. His last race might be better than it looks. He was near the pace on a track that seemed to be favoring inside runners and still ran a number that is competitive with these.

9 Champagne's On Ice (5-2)
This one ran pretty well sprinting for Robertino Diodoro in Houston in the maiden special weight two races back. They connections dropped him in for a tag off that effort and asked him to go long, but the race didn't go well. He should perform much better with the outside post, cutback in distance and drop to the lowest level of his life.

A: 7,9
B: none

Will Rogers Downs 8th
2 Handsome Traveler (9-2)
Ultra competitive at this level in Houston. His best races were sprinting, and the mile race wasn't even that bad.

10 Corrana En Limen (7-2)
Trainer Robertino Diodoro has had a great start to 2020 and is winning at 35 percent at this meet. His percentage has dipped lately, but this one is still a legit contender from the outside post.

8 Eye Cloud (10-1)
Was 60-1 against better and should appreciate the drop to a more manageable level. The sixth-place finish (beaten nine lengths) might not look that bad, but he was last in a field of six. Use at a big price as a B, but I am not going to include him as an A.

A: 2,10
B: 8

Will Rogers Downs 9th
12 Okie Queen (3-1)
Her maiden win going six furlongs could win this race. Her comeback race in January wasn't great, but her speed figure for six furlongs crushes this field. She should be extremely tough in here.

11 Keena (9-2)
Comes in off a layoff but has one win and two seconds off layoffs in her career. I love the outside post, and although she has never won at Will Rogers she has been in the money three times.

A: 12
B: 11

Will Rogers Downs 10th
6 Burgameister (5-2)
Didn't handle the grass sprinting last time but returns to the main track and stretches back out. His race three starts back decimates this field. These horses aren't close if he runs his race.

5 Far Out Kailee (4-1)
She was bet heavily last time off the layoff but ran into a sloppy track. She is right there if she finds her Will Rogers form from last spring when she won three races in a row at this distance.

A: 6
B: 5

Wagers
All-A ticket
$10 Pick 4: 7,9 with 2,10 with 12 with 6 ($40)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$5 Pick 4: 7,9 with 8 with 12 with 6
$5 Pick 4: 7,9 with 2,10 with 11 with 6
$5 Pick 4: 7,9 with 2,10 with 12 with 5

Two-A, two-B tickets
$2 Pick 4: 7,9 with 8 with 11 with 6
$2 Pick 4: 7,9 with 8 with 12 with 5
$2 Pick 4: 7,9 with 2,10 with 11 with 5

Total wager: $106

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fonner Park - Race #1

#5 Miss Blue Rooster	Ran a good one as the 2-1 chalk last time out, so not sure we're getting the 8/1 ML here, but she has a couple of running lines from recent races that would do the trick.
#6 Platte Girl	Meets a group with its fair share of underachievers and potential career maidens, so this is not a bad spot to make a career debut with a bullet work under the belt.
#3 Baker Township	Forward player may hang around for a piece, but she tends to give away ground in the stretch call of her races, making her a bit tough to endorse on top.
Race Summary	Miss Blue Rooster should be tough here at something closer to the 2/1 she offered last out than the 8/1 ML price, and her early speed will put her in the mix in a spot where a repeat of her last would almost surely get her home.

Fonner Park - Race #4

#8 Perfect Line	Will flash his early speed while drawn outside of the other forward players, and he has proven a really good fit with the local company.
#7 Witt's Gold	Sam Houston invader fits well here, but he is almost always heading the wrong way in the lane and may get caught in a tough, chasing trip anyway.
#1 Dialed	Drops off a modest enough effort with better last out, and the two-back run was pretty sharp. Rail draw may make for a tough trip.
Race Summary	Perfect Line is quick enough to be in the mix from the bell, and he draws well to bother other speedy runners like Dialed while racing outside of them.

Fonner Park - Race #9

#8 Bandwidth	Finisher could wind up with too much to do here, but the recent races all fit really well with this bunch. Look for him late.
#5 Heisyankee	Made a bit of a move before flattening out in the last one, and it isn't out of the question that he could sustain a similar run better this time around.
#3 Resilience of Love	Speed isn't overmatched with these, and that was a decent enough first run off the claim for the Gonzalez barn.
Race Summary	Bandwidth figures to settle back and finish in his local debut, and he brings a string a really nice Turf Paradise efforts with him to this race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Will Rogers Downs - Race #3

#1 West Coast Broker	Had a tough trip in his only start, has been off since September and has a steady string of workouts for his return; well-bred, gets blinkers and will likely should great improvement in his 2nd start.
#6 Past Visions	Ran a good 2nd at Remington in his first start and then tired badly at Oaklawn in his only start there; has trained well and is the lower price of the two Caster trainees, the other being West Coast Broker.
#3 Jimmy Winne	Was 4th in his only start, which came in November 2018; had a couple of bullet works at Remington last fall and trainer Young is 10 of 25 for 40 percent here.
Race Summary	West Coast Broker was bred to be a runner, has a bad go of it in his only start and deserves another chance.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #6

#1 Quicksilver	Ran up toward the lead and then backed up vs. better at Oaklawn; fits well and will likely get a good trip in his 1st one here.
#4 Little Avenger	Tired in a couple at Houston and has the speed to press from the outset.
#7 Smokin B	Closed with a rush and just missed at Houston in his latest; Diodoro is hitting at a 35 percent rate.
Race Summary	Quicksilver has raced at higher level and can probably get a good stalking position; one to hold off.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #9

#1 Polly Tiz	Ran well in several races, including stakes, at Remington Park and can be on or close to the lead at once; expect a good effort out of this talented state-bred filly.
#11 Keena	Was up in time for a win to end her 2019 campaign and has worked very well for her return; her only bad effort came in a stake race two years ago and she has been a contender in her races since that one.
#2 Bright Bling	Finished the 2019 in good form with a win and two 2nds and has a bullet work to her credit.
Race Summary	Polly Tiz has the tactical speed to get in good position and can dig in late; has very good efforts on her form and should be difficult to beat.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 2	Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (.10) Pick 4 (.50) (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $7,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $9,350 • Post: 1:45P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SEAHAWK WAVE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SEAHAWK WAVE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has th e highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	SEAHAWK WAVE	5/2	5/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	ROCKIN ROG	3	8/1	Front-runner	71	70	79.4	64.2	47.7
2	PATRIOT	2	3/1	Front-runner	80	78	67.4	68.6	64.1
10	GINGE	10	10/1	Front-runner	81	76	63.2	61.6	49.6
4	NOT TODAY ALFIE	4	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	85	79	52.6	64.4	52.9
5	SEAHAWK WAVE	5	5/2	Stalker	86	80	82.8	76.2	73.7
8	RAPID IMPULSE	8	12/1	Stalker	76	68	64.4	61.8	48.3
7	TALK GRUFF	7	20/1	Trailer	76	62	35.6	57.4	42.4
6	PHAT AND FAST	6	5/1	Trailer	78	76	28.4	72.0	65.5
9	ATOMIC CANDY	9	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	75	68.0	63.4	52.9
1	PHELPS	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	64	64.2	46.0	32.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fonner Park

Fonner Park - Race 1	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / Daily Double / .50 Pick 5 (Races 1-5)
Maiden Special • 4 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 40 • Purse: $7,040 • Post: 4:00P
FOR CERTIFIED NE BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SWEET COWGIRL is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SWEET COWGIRL: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation . P R GOLD MONEY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. MISS BLUE ROOSTER: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or four th start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BAKER TOWNSHIP: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
9	SWEET COWGIRL	6/1	5/2
2	P R GOLD MONEY	9/2	7/1
5	MISS BLUE ROOSTER	8/1	8/1
3	BAKER TOWNSHIP	7/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	BAKER TOWNSHIP	3	7/2	Front-runner	42	15	55.6	25.8	17.8
5	MISS BLUE ROOSTER	5	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	46	33	32.4	30.6	22.6
9	SWEET COWGIRL	9	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	48	41	60.4	31.4	29.4
8	STREAKNSILVERSTONE	8	10/1	Trailer	0	0	0.0	20.5	9.5
2	P R GOLD MONEY	2	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	50	39	17.6	28.8	23.8
7	SWEETSOURPUSS	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	32.4	17.5	7.5
4	BULLS EYE BETTY	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	28.0	18.0	6.0
1	WILDFIRE SIS	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	5.8	11.1	0.0

Unknown Running Style: PLATTE GIRL (5/2) [Jockey: Olesiak Jake L - Trainer: Anderson David C].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7040 Class Rating: 40

FOR CERTIFIED NE BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 SWEET COWGIRL 6/1
# 2 P R GOLD MONEY 9/2
# 5 MISS BLUE ROOSTER 8/1

My choice in this contest is SWEET COWGIRL. The quick return to the track points to a strong effort this time around. Ought to be considered a contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. P R GOLD MONEY - This mare with Fackler in the irons makes her a solid contender. This mare is coming back in next to no time to the track. MISS BLUE ROOSTER - Bliss has her trained well to break promptly out of the gate. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9350 Class Rating: 80

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SEAHAWK WAVE 5/2
# 6 PHAT AND FAST 5/1
# 2 PATRIOT 3/1

My choice here is SEAHAWK WAVE. His 79 average has this gelding with among the strongest speed figures for this event. Ran a strong last race. Has quite good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. PHAT AND FAST - The Equibase Speed Figure of 72 from his most recent race looks solid in here. Has been travelling soundly and has among the most favorable speed in the race for today's distance. PATRIOT - Had one of the top Equibase Speed Figs of this group in his last race. Reliable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this equine a solid contender.