Service Plays Saturday 1/4/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2020, 08:11 AM

Vegas Synergy

4% Buffalo Bills +3 (-108)

Bills have the better defense and the better coaching. They actually have the advantage in many categories. Obviously, Houston has the QB advantage but Allen did very well in his last prime time game in Dallas. Metrics have this game a pick and any points is a gift. Bills getting extra value because of their absence from playoffs recently.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2020, 08:12 AM

The Prez

4% Houston Texans -2.5 (+100)

There are game day handicapping variables that can simply be ignored in this AFC matchup. One would think that a team that has barely sniffed postseason play the last 18 years would be void of player personnel with playoff stripes. The thing is Buffalo has more playoff experience than one would guess. A total of 25 of the 53 players on the active roster have appeared in at least one playoff game in their career. That’s better than 47 percent of the squad.

The Houston Texans have more players with more experience and more postseason minutes -- but the margin or the minutes and number of players -- isn't what is significant in this contest. More on this at the close of this game analysis.

Buffalo is preparing to make just their second playoff appearance since the 1999 season. And the Houston franchise is sloppy 3-5 all-time in postseason play. The Buffalo franchise has not won a postseason game since 1995. Furthermore, the Texans have earned a spot in the postseason bracket five times since 2011. In those five January's the club has a 3-5 straight up record. As a franchise during that time span, they are 3-2 in wild card contests.

The Texans earned the No 4 seed by winning the AFC South title. Houston closed the regular season slate with a loss to the Tennessee Titans finishing the campaign with a 10-6 record.

The Texans went 5-3 at home while the Bills were 6-2 in the role as a visitor this season. And both teams essentially treated Week 17 as a bye week. As a result both were losers this past Sunday.

Houston ranked 14th in the NFL with 23.6 points per game and 13th with 362.0 total yards of offense per game. Buffalo was 23rd in points per game (19.6) and 24th in yards per game (330.2).

The Bills had the No. 2 defense in the NFL with 16.2 PPG allowed per game. Buffalo allowed the third-fewest yards per game (298.3) this season. The Texans rank 19th in PPG allowed (24.1) and 28th in YPG allowed (388.3).

The edge in experience goes to the Texans in this wild card weekend affair. Watson was the 12th overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft. His first and only postseason appearance came last January against Indianapolis when the Colts defeated the Deshaun Watson and the Texans 21-7. For the simple reason that this will be Allen's first time in the postseason spotlight matters. Just as it did a year ago for Watson.

Both teams produced one 1,000-yard receiver in Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins (1,165) and Bills WR John Brown (1,060). But there isn't an NFL owner, nor starting quarterback in the league that would choose Brown over Hopkins.

Neither team had a Bell Cow back to lean on. Buffalo's top tailback gained 775 yards. Veteran rusher Carlos Hyde rushed for nearly 1100 total yards. The edge at the offensive skilled positions goes to Houston; at quarterback, running back and at the wide receiver position.

The turnover ratio for both teams was void of any at-a-boys. The Bills had a turnover differential of plus-4 to the Texans' nil.

Buffalo and Houston Injury Report:

Bills:
CB Levi Wallace (ankle) day-to-day.

Texans:
WR Will Fuller (groin) is probable.
DL J.J. Watt (pectoral) is questionable

The edge that the Bills have in this wild card matchup is their ability to rush the quarterback. Buffalo finished the regular season with 44 sacks to Houston's 31. And the Texans allowed more sacks (49-40).

The status of Watt plays a large part in this game. With JJ Houston should be touchdown chalk. He'll be needed to help

And while many want to call the quarterback edge a wash because of QB Josh Allen's ability to use his legs, (510 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground this year) Watson can still scramble and run with the best in the league.

The edge on the offensive side of the ball rests in the Houston corner. The defensive experience and the Texans' ability to move Allen off his spot make Houston a near mortal lock to win this wild card matchup, and with nearly the same probability to cover the current oddsmakers number.

Playing at home offers the Texans another significant advantage, especially in the ability of Watson receiving max protection with the line having the ability to hear the cadence. When Watson has four-or more seconds to survey the field and make a decision his completion rate is nearly 70 percent.

The Buffalo fan base is excited about their chances in this game but the truth is that Watson, Hopkins, and Hyde easily trump Allen, Singletary, and Brown.

Play on: HOUSTON TEXANS -2.5 (play good to -5)
4% play rating

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2020, 08:12 AM

Teddy Covers

Bills–Texans Playoff Lid-Lifter

4% Texans -2.5 (+100)

The Texans have been to the playoffs four times in Bill O’Brien’s six years on the job, but they’ve only won one game in January during that span. They were wiped out last year by the Colts at home in their playoff opener, losing by two touchdowns. And they got blasted at home last week, resting starters against the Titans in a three TD home loss. Bottom line – there’s not much of a betting bandwagon to support the Titans these days, and it shows in this cheaply priced pointspread! First and foremost, the Texans are not an injury riddled mess this season; like they were last year by January. O’Brien: “For this time of year, probably as good as you can be….we’re in decent shape.” Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Bradley Roby and Laremy Tunsil all sat last week. They’ll all be on the field this Sunday, and there’s a chance both Will Fuller and JJ Watt could join them. The Texans played 11 opponents that finished at .500 or better this year. They won eight of those games; notching more wins against quality foes than ANY of the dozen playoff teams, facing by far the toughest strength of schedule of any AFC team. They’re battle tested, they’re healthy, they’re really good and they’re underrated in the betting markets because of some iffy defensive stats against the run. The Bills three best wins this year came against the Cowboys, the Steelers and the Titans before Tennessee benched Marcus Mariota; not exactly a who’s who of quality squads. Their defense is good enough to keep them hanging around against playoff caliber foes, but their anemic offense isn’t good enough to actually win them…… Take the Texans.

Line Parameter 4% at -2.5 or lower, 3% at -3 or higher

**Lexdeoh20189** · 01-03-2020, 04:59 PM

Wunderdog NFL Pick:

Game: Buffalo Bills (141) @ Houston Texans (142)
Time: Saturday 01/04 4:35 PM Eastern
Pick: UNDER 44 (-115) at BetOnline

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 10:02 PM

DAVE COKIN

Tulane -7
Pats -5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 10:03 PM

Tom Stryker

15-0 ATS & 9-0 ATS NFL WILDCARD PERFECT BEST BET

Texans

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 10:03 PM

Football Jesus text NFL BILLS+ points. And a 6 pt 2 team teaser TITANS & SAINTS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 10:03 PM

Ben Burns

T.O.Y. Tulane Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 10:03 PM

Marc Lawrence

Play - Buffalo Bills (Game 141)
Edges - Bills: 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in the playoffs when coming off a loss since 1980; and 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS away this season; and 5-1 ATS away off a SUATS loss under Sean McDermott â€¦ Texans: 1-4 SUATS last five playoff games; and QB Deshaun Watson 13-5-1 ATS as a dog in his NFL career but only 7-11-2 ATS as a favorite, including 0-3 ATS versus .600 or greater opponents â€¦ We cement the call with these powerful angles from our powerful database: 1) NFL teams in the playoffs coming off a division loss of 20 or more points are 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS since 1999; and 2) NFL playoff dogs of 3 or fewer points who own a same or better record than their opponent 19-2 ATS when coming off a division opponent, including 12-0 ATS against a foe that is not off a spread win of more than 8 points â€¦ With the Bills owning 50 YPG the better defense in this contest, we recommend a 3* play on Buffalo. Thank you and good luck as always.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 10:03 PM

Big Al’s. Game of the year New England

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 10:04 PM

Brad Feinberg
Titans
Texans

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 10:04 PM

Doc Sports
NFL Playoffs
New England -5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 10:04 PM

Dave Essler

3* under bills/houston 44

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 10:05 PM

R.J. White

A CBS Sports NFL editor, R.J. twice has cashed huge in the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. In 2017 he tied for 18th out of 2,748 contestants with a 52-29-4 mark against the spread. In 2015 he tied for 39th out of 1,727 entries with a 51-32-2 record. R.J. consistently crushes the NFL for SportsLine members: All-time he's 265-218-22 on ATS picks, returning $2,335 to $100 players. R.J. has many years of experience analyzing NFL statistics and trends, beginning with Super Bowl XXV.

NEW ENGLAND -5
TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND | 1/04 | 8:15 PM EST
WED 1/1
If this game were held on a random week in the middle of the regular season, I'd probably like the Titans. But how can you fade the Patriots in Foxborough in January? As great as the Titans offense has looked after their QB change, they've played exactly zero tough opponents on the road (Panthers, Colts, Raiders, Texans backups). While plenty of attention is being paid to the decline of Tom Brady and his passing game, the Pats' four best rushing performances came in their last five games. Bill Belichick can grind out first downs and points on offense, focus on slowing Derrick Henry and force Ryan Tannehill to beat him on the road in the playoffs. I give the Pats the edge there.

8-3 IN LAST 11 NFL ATS PICKS | +471
23-17 IN LAST 40 TEN ATS PICKS | +406

HOUSTON -2.5
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON | 1/04 | 4:35 PM EST
WED 1/1
Though the overall stats point to the Bills as the better team and though I have concerns about the Texans defense, there are two key factors I can't get over. One: The Bills were 1-4 against playoff teams, with the only win against the Titans before their QB change when they were clearly not playoff-caliber. Two: Strength of schedule clearly favors the Texans (sixth, per Football Outsiders) over the Bills (30th), key for two teams with identical records. Throw in a secretly-important injury issue for Buffalo with Levi Wallace nursing an ankle sprain, and I expect the Texans to get it done at home.

8-3 IN LAST 11 NFL ATS PICKS | +471
13-7-1 IN LAST 21 BUF ATS PICKS | +532

Service Plays Saturday 1/4/20

Service Plays Saturday 1/4/20

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