Saturday 12-28-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-27-2019, 08:42 AM

Saturday's Early Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

New Mexico Bowl (ESPN, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Central Michigan vs. San Diego State

-- The Central Michigan Chippewas (8-5 straight up, 9-3-1 against the spread) of the Mid-American Conference will face off against the San Diego State Aztecs (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Mountain West Conference in the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque, N.M.

-- The Chippewas will be making their 12th bowl appearance in school history, and first since falling in the Idaho Potato Bowl against Wyoming on Dec. 22, 2017 by a 37-14 score. CMU has dropped four consecutive bowl appearances since topping Kentucky in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl back on Dec. 26, 2012. They're 3-8 SU all-time in bowl games in school history.

-- The Aztecs have posted 17 bowl appearances, going 8-9 in their previous appearances. Like Central Michigan, this will be their first-ever appearance in the New Mexico Bowl. The Aztecs enter on a two-game bowl losing streak, falling in last season's Frisco Bowl against Ohio by a 27-0 score. They topped Houston by a 34-10 score in the Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 17, 2016 for their most recent bowl success.

-- CMU is coming off a disappointing 26-21 loss against Miami-Ohio in the MAC Championship Game at Ford Field on Dec. 7. That loss snapped a three-game win and cover streak to close out the regular season, and the Chips are still 6-2 ATS across the past eight games despite the non-cover vs. Miami. The Chippewas were 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS in four non-conference tilts, including a 42-28 win over New Mexico State in their final non-conference tilts on Oct. 12.

-- San Diego State blew their chance at a conference championship, falling 17-13 against Nevada at home on Nov. 9, and 14-11 at Hawaii on Nov. 23. They scored 20 or fewer points in each of their final five games, while allowing 17 or fewer points in each of their final six. As such, the 'under' connected in each of their final six contests of the regular season. They are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in three non-conference tilts, and these two teams have a common opponent - New Mexico State. The Aztecs spanked the Aggies 31-10 back on Sept. 14 to cover a 16.5-point spread, recording their largest margin of victory of the season.

-- Central Michigan ranks 27th in total yards per game (447.4), 40th in passing yards per game (258.9), 40th in rushing yards per game (188.5) and 44th in points scored (31.9). Defensively the Chips ranked 38th in total yards allowed (351.8), 84th in passing yards allowed (235.2) and 21st in rushing yards allowed (116.7), while checking in 62nd in the country with 26.8 points per game allowed.

-- San Diego State ended up ranked 115th in the nation with 330.1 total yards per game offensively, while finishing 99th in passing yards (194.8) and 99th in rushing yards (135.3). They also posted just 19.0 points per game to finish 119th in the country. On the defensive side of the ball, the Aztecs were dominant, allowing just 288.7 total yards per game to rank fifth, while checking in 53rd with 216.3 passing yards allowed and second with only 72.4 rushing yards per contest. They also yielded only 12.8 PPG to finish fourth in the nation.

-- Aztecs DB Luq Barcoo was tied for second in the country with eight interceptions, while ranking first with 24 passes defensed and he was tied for No. 1 with 16 pass breakups.

-- San Diego State QB Ryan Agnew (calf) is expected to be ready after leaving the regular-season finale due to injury. However, leading RB Juwan Washington (lower body) is a question mark, so RB Chase Jasmin might have to do more of the heavy lifting.

-- Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS in the past six non-conference games and 6-2 ATS in the past eight games overall. However, they're 2-5 ATS in the past seven against winning sides and 0-4 ATS in the past four neutal-site games.

-- San Diego State is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games as a favorite, but they're just 5-13 ATS in the past 18 games on a grass surface and 3-8 ATS in their past 11 appearances in the month of December.

-- The Chippewas have hit the over in six of the past eight games overall, and the over is 4-0 in their past four as an underdog. The over is also 4-1 in their past five non-conference tilts.

-- The under has connected in four in a row for the Aztecs as a favorite, and 4-1 in their past five neutral-site battles while going 20-8-1 in the previous 29 non-conference tilts.

-- The under is 4-1 in San Diego State's past five bowl games.

-- Kickoff is slated for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Cure Bowl (ABC, 2:30 p.m.)
Liberty vs. Georgia Southern

-- The FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl will feature a battle between the independent Liberty Flames (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (7-5 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla.

-- Liberty will be appearing in its first-ever bowl game in just their second-ever season at the FBS level. Head coach Hugh Freeze earned a contract extension on Dec. 10 after securing the historic bowl berth for the Flames.

-- The Eagles are the bowl veterans, although this is just their third-ever postseason appearance. They picked up an exciting 23-21 win over Eastern Michigan in last season's Camellia Bowl. They also blasted Bowling Green by a 58-27 count in the 2005 GoDaddy Bowl, so they've never lost a bowl game in their brief history.

-- Liberty started off the season 0-2 SU/ATS, but rattled off five straight wins to get to the precipice of bowl eligibility in late October. A disappointing loss at Rutgers on Oct. 26 spoiled their momentum, but they routed Massachusetts (who didn't?) by a 63-21 score to gain eligibility in style. They fell at BYU and at Virginia on Nov. 9 and Nov. 23, but crushed New Mexico State by a 49-28 count to end the season on a high note, covering a 14.5-point spread.

-- Georgia Southern opened 1-3 SU in their first four outings of the regular season, and they covered just once in the first six games to open the year. The Eagles recorded their most impressive victory of the season with a 24-21 win at Appalachian State on Halloween night, a treat for Eagles fans everywhere. That also likely spoiled any chance App State had of appearing in the Cotton Bowl, although they were still in the running late.

-- Like CMU and San Diego State above, Liberty and Georgia Southern also had a common opponent in New Mexico State. The Eagles routed NMSU 41-7 to cover a 13.5-point spread on Oct. 26, and Liberty pounded them in the finale as mentioned above.

-- Liberty ranked 34th in the country with 443.3 total yards per game, while also posting 290.5 passing yards per game to end up 21st in the land. They're 32nd in points scored with 33.7, while they struggled with 152.8 rushing yards per game to finish 72nd in the nation. Defensively the Flames were very average, ranking 88th with 422.4 total yards per game allowed, 74th against the pass (229.8), 100th against the run (192.9) and 77th in points allowed (29.1).

-- Georgia Southern was a dismal 112th in total yards per game (333.6), 130th in passing yards per contest (72.8) and 63rd in points scored (29.2). However, the triple-option Eagles rank eighth in the nation with 260.8 rushing yards per contest. The Eagles ranked 53rd in total yards per game allowed 377.3, they were 91st against the pass (240.2) and 38th against the rush (137.1) while yielding 28.6 PPG to check in 72nd in the land.

-- Liberty is 17-7 ATS in the past 24 as an underdog, while going 0-4 ATS in the past four non-conference tilts.

-- Georgia Southern is 1-4 ATS in the past five games following a cover in their most recent appearance.

-- The Flames hit the over in four of the past five games overall, but the under is 5-1 in Liberty's past six games as an underdog.

-- The Eagles hit the over in four of their final five games in the regular season, while the over is 4-1 in the past five against winning teams. The over is also 9-3 in Georgia Southern's past 12 games on a grass surface, while going 5-1 in the past six after a straight-up win and 4-0 in the past four after a cover.

-- Kickoff is slated for 2:30 p.m. Eastern on CBSSN.

Boca Raton Bowl (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
Southern Methodist vs. Florida Atlantic

-- The Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl features a battle between the Southern Methodist Mustangs (10-2 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) of the American Athletic Conference and the Florida Atlantic Owls (10-3 straight up, 9-4 against the spread) of Conference USA at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Fla.

-- SMU has a rich bowl history, and they'll make their first appearance in the Boca Raton Bowl. After going 1-4-1 SU in their first six bowl appearances the Mustangs are 6-4 SU across the past 10 appearances, including 4-2 in the past six. They're 0-1 in their only bowl appearance against a Conference USA foe, falling 51-10 to Louisiana Tech in their most recent bowl showing in the 2017 Frisco Bowl.

-- FAU doesn't have a lengthy bowl history, but it has been successful. They debuted Dec. 21, 2007 with a 44-27 win over Memphis, an AAC opponent, before posting a 24-21 win over Central Michigan in the 2008 Motor City Bowl. In their only previous Boca Raton Bowl showing they routed Akron by a 50-3 score on Dec. 19, 2017.

-- SMU fired out of the box with eight straight victories to open the season, while going 5-0 ATS in the first five contests. The 'over' also went 7-0 in the first seven battles, and 9-0-1 in their first 10 contests. Their only losses came in a 54-48 slugfest at Memphis on Nov. 2, and a 35-28 showdown at Navy on Nov. 23. The Mustangs did limp home with a 1-4 ATS mark in the final five games.

-- The Mustangs ranked ninth in the country with 495.3 total yards per game on offense, while ranking 12th in passing yards (309.3) per contest. They're also 41st in the land with 185.9 rushing yards per game and 43.0 points per game to end up seventh in the nation. Defensively the Mustangs allowed 438.6 total yards per game to rank 102nd, while ranking 121st in passing yards allowed (284.9) and 100th in points allowed (31.8 PPG).

-- SMU QB Shane Buechele threw for 3,626 passing yards with 33 touchdowns and nine interceptions while completing 63.2 percent of his passes. RB Xavier Jones ran for 1,249 yards and 21 touchdowns while WR James Proche ended up with 102 receptions, 1,139 yards and 14 combined touchdowns.

-- The Owls will be playing their first game with interim head coach Glenn Spencer at the helm after Lane Kiffin bolted for the vacant Ole Miss head coaching position.

-- FAU ranked 32nd with 443.5 total yards per game on offense while ranking 30th in passing yards (278.4). They were also 16th in the country with 35.2 PPG. Defensively the Owls were 48th with 371.3 total yards per game allowed, 81st against the pass (233.6) and 41st against the run (137.7). They also ranked 33rd while allowing 22.3 PPG.

-- Owls TE Harrison Bryant posted 1,002 yards while capturing the Mackey Award, recognized as college football's best tight end.

-- SMU posted a 4-0 ATS mark in their past four non-conference games, but they're 1-4 ATS in the past five games overall.

-- FAU is 5-1 ATS in the past six games overall, while going 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning overall mark. They're also 5-0 ATS in the past five neutral-site contests.

-- The over is 9-3 in SMU's past 12 games overall, and 6-2 in the past eight as a favorite. The over is also 6-0 in the past six non-conference games, but the under is 4-0 in the past four neutral-site battles and 5-0 in SMU's past five bowl games.

-- The over is 5-1-1 in FAU's past seven as an underdog, while the under is 7-1 in their past eight appearances in the month of December and 8-3 in the past 11 games on a grass surface.

-- This is the first-ever meeting between SMU and FAU on the gridiron.

-- Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-27-2019, 08:43 AM

Saturday's Late Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

Camellia Bowl (ESPN, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Florida International vs. Arkansas State

-- The Florida International Golden Panthers (6-6 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) of Conference USA will take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) from the Sun Belt Conference in the Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Ala. in the Cramton Bowl.

-- The Golden Panthers are bowling for a school-record third straight season under the leadership of head coach Butch Davis. They are 2-2 overall in their four previous bowl games, having won the 2010 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl over Toledo in 2010, while losing the Beef O' Brady's Bowl to Marshall in 2011, both under Mario Cristobal, now at Oregon. They lost the Gasparilla Bowl to Temple in 2017 under Davis, before rebounding with a 35-32 last season in the Bahamas Bowl, again over Toledo.

-- FIU barely qualified for the postseason, but a big late victory turned their season. They started out 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS, with only a win over FCS New Hampshire in the first four games. They throttled Massachusetts 44-0 on Oct. 5, a common theme for most teams this season, to get their first win against an FBS team. They followed that up with their first conference win of the season Oct. 12 against Charlotte, a bowl team, while running their record to 4-3 SU on Oct. 19 with another C-USA win over Texas-El Paso. However, a 50-17 humbling at Middle Tennessee, and a 37-7 whitewashing on the road against rival Florida Atlantic had them in another 0-4 ATS tailspin, and a 5-5 SU hole heading into Nov. 23 against Miami-Florida. However, they stunned the Hurricanes 30-24 at Marlins Park for one of the biggest, if not the biggest, wins in school history to attain bowl eligibility before a 30-27 overtime loss at Marshall in the season finale. FIU ended the season 6-1 SU at home, but 0-5 SU on the road, something to remember here.

-- The Red Wolves wer beaten by SMU in their opener, 37-30, and they lost to another bowl team Georgia, 55-0, on Sept. 14 at Sanford Stadium in Athens. They rattled off two wins in a row against FCS Southern Illinois and at Troy, but fell to a pair of bowl teams, Georgia State and Louisiana, to go back under .500. However, a four-game win streak against Texas State, Louisiana-Monroe, Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern meant they were bowl again, although they enter this game on a losing streak after a 34-30 failure in Mobile against a bad South Alabama side.

-- Ark State has posted a 3-6 SU record in FBS bowl games, falling in the past two appearances. They lost to Nevada in the Arizona Bowl last season by a 16-13 score in overtime, and against Middle Tennessee by a 35-30 count in their only previous appearance in the Camellia Bowl. They're also 0-2 SU in two previous showings in a bowl game against C-USA teams, falling 31-19 to Southern Miss in the 2005 New Orleans Bowl, too.

-- Offensively, the Red Wolves were strong, especially in the pass game. They ranked 44th in the nation with 432.2 total yards per game, and 14th with 305.3 passing yards per contest. Rushing, they're a dismal 110th with 126.8 yards per contest, but it all equated to 33.7 points per game to rank 31st. Defensively, ugh, the Red Wolves were 127th in the country with 481.9 total yards per game, and 104th against the pass (257.3), 123rd against the run (224.6) and they allowed 34.8 points per game to rank 117th.

-- FIU's strength is against the pass, ranking sixth in the country with just 178.5 pass yards allowed per game. That's because their rush defense was atrocious, allowing 205.1 yards per game on the ground to rank 111th. Overall they allowed 26.7 points per game to check in 61st. Offensively, FIU was balanced, although not in a good way. They ranked 97th with 371.3 total yards per game, 91st in pass yards (203.5), 61st in rushing (167.8) and 84th in points score (26.5).

-- The Golden Panthers are 7-2 ATS in the past nine against winning teams, but they're just 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven neutral-site games. They're 11-5 ATS in the past 16 as an underdog, too.

-- The Red Wolves are 1-5 ATS in the past six non-conference games, while going 1-4 ATS in the past five neutral-site affairs. They're also 1-4 ATS in the past five bowl games, while also going 1-5 ATS in the past six vs. C-USA teams.

-- FIU has hit the over in five of the past six against winning teams, while going 5-2 in their past seven as an underdog.

-- For Ark State, the over is 5-2 in their past seven as a favorite, but the under is 4-1 in the past five games in December, and 36-17-1 in the previous 54 non-conference tilts.

-- These teams have a history, as they were each previously SBC members together. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, with the under cashing in five in a row.

Las Vegas Bowl (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
Boise State vs. Washington

-- The Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl will pits the Boise State Broncos (12-1 straight up, 7-5-1 against the spread) from the Mountain West Conference and the Washington Huskies (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) of the Pac-12 Conference at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas (technically Whitney, Nev.).

-- The game marks the final one for head coach Chris Petersen at Washington, and it comes against the program where he made a name for himself in Boise. He went 92-12 across eight seasons with the Broncos from 2006-13 before taking the gig with the Huskies in 2014.

-- Boise State has an interesting bowl history, and they'll likely be glad to be back in the fair weather of Las Vegas. They were trailing 7-0 with 5:08 to go in the first quarter last season in the First Responder Bowl before the remainder of the game was cancelled due to inclement/severe weather, with the bowl designated a no contest.

-- The Broncos will be making their fifth appearance in the Las Vegas bowl, previously named the Maaco Bowl. These teams met in bowl game on Dec. 22, 2012, with the Broncos coming away with a 28-26 win under Petersen. In their four previous appearances the Broncos are 4-0 with wins over Utah (2010), Arizona State (2011), Washington (2012) and Oregon (2017). Overall they're 12-6 SU in their previous 18 FBS bowl appearances dating back to Dec. 30, 1999.

-- The Huskies have dropped three bowl games in a row under Petersen, and they're 1-4 SU across their five appearances under his leadership. They're also just 5-13 SU in their past 18 bowl games after a 10-3 SU run from 1978-92 under Don James.

-- Boise State ranks 38th with 441.5 total yards per game, and they're 35th in passing yards (267.4) while ranking 52nd in rushing yards (174.2). The Broncos are also 14th in the nation with 36.8 points per game. Defensively they rank 35th with 347.5 total yards per game allowed, while clamping down against the rush with 113.1 yards per contest allowed. They also gave up just 20.6 PPG to check in 24th.

-- Freshman QB Hank Bachmeier (shoulder) is a question mark due to a shoulder injury, but QB Chase Cord and QB Jaylon Henderson have proven to be more than capable, if/when needed. Henderson started four games, passing for 1,032 yards and 11 touchdowns with just two interceptions, while Cord cut the mustard, too. He appearance in eight games, throwing for 670 yards, nine touchdowns and just three intereceptions while also running for 100 yards and two scores. RB George Holani, also a freshman, rolled up a team-best 979 rushing yards with seven touchdowns

-- Washington was a mediocre 73rd in total yards per game (397.3), while ranking 55th in passing yards (245.1), 76th in rushing yards (152.2) and 47th in points scored (31.5) per game Defensively they allowed 358.3 total yards per outing to rank 39th, while checking in 64th against the pass (225.1) and 33rd against the run (133.3). They also allowed 20.4 points per game to finish 23rd in the land.

-- Boise State is 7-0 ATS in their past seven games as an underdog, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six as a bowl underdog. They're also 7-3 ATS in the past 10 bowl games overall, and 9-4 ATS in their past 13 neutral-site battles.

-- Washington is 6-2 ATS in the past eight as a favorite, and 4-1 ATS in the past five non-conference tilts. However, they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five bowl games and 1-4 ATS in the past five neutral-site affairs.

New Orleans Bowl (ESPN, 9:00 p.m.)
Appalachian State vs. Alabama-Birmingham

-- The R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl features the Sun Bowl champion Appalachian State Mountaineers (12-1 straight up, 9-4 against the spread) against the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers (9-4 straight up, 7-6 against the spread) at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, La.

-- The Mountaineers had a tremendous season, including wins on the road against Power 5 teams North Carolina and South Carolina. They head to New Orleans looking for a 13-win season, and they'll also be looking to stay unbeaten in bowl games. They are 4-0 SU in two Camellia Bowl appearances, a Dollar General Bowl appearance and a 45-13 dismantling of Middle Tennessee in last season's New Orleans Bowl.

-- The only blemish on App State's record was a 24-21 loss on Halloween night agaisnt Georgia Southern. Since then they won five in a row, covering four of those outings. That run includes the win over South Carolina, as well as a 56-27 at Georgia State (a bowl team), and a 45-38 win over Louisiana (also a bowl team) in the Sun Belt title game. Overall the Mountaineers beat bowl teams Charlotte, North Carolina, Louisiana (twice) and Georgia State.

-- For the Blazers, they're a heavy underdog after getting demolished by Florida Atlantic (a bowl team) in the Conference USA title game in Boca Raton, Fla., essentially a road game. They have QB Tyler Johnston III (knee) on the injury report due to a knee injury. He led the team with 1,949 passing yards in 2019.

-- UAB fell 49-6 to FAU in the title game, splashing cold water on a 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS run to close out the regular season, including a 20-14 win over bowl team Lousiana Tech. They had a rare over in the C-USA title game, too, as they closed out the regular season on a 4-1 'under' run.

-- The Blazers struggled offensively, ranking 105th in total yards per game (352.9), 101st in passing yards (193.4) and 68th in rushing yards (159.5) while posting 23.6 PPG to rank 100th in the country. Defensively the Blazers had it on lockdown most of the season, allowing just 295.2 yards per game to rank eighth, while checking in 14th against the pass (186.8) and 13th against the rush (108.3). They also allowed just 20.8 points per game to rank 26th in the nation.

-- For App State, they ranked 42nd in total yards (435.5) while ranking 87th in passing yards (206.3) and 17th in rushing yards (229.2). Overall, they scored 39.4 points per game to finish ninth in the nation. Defensively, the Mountaineers were solid across the board, ranking 26th in total yards (335.9), 30th in passing yards (199.7), 37th in rushing yards (136.2) and 22nd in points (20.2) allowed per game.

-- The Mountaineers are led by SBC offensive player of the year RB Darrytnon Evans, who posted 1,323 yards on the ground while posting a total of 17 touchdowns.

-- App State is 8-1 ATS in the past nine non-conference battles, 5-1 ATS in the past six against teams with a winning record and 22-8 ATS in the past 30 overall. They're also 17-8 ATS in the past 25 as a favorite.

-- UAB is 2-5 ATS in the past seven against teams with a winning record while going 1-4 ATS in the past five as an underdog.

-- App State has hit the over in seven of the past eight against winning teams while going 6-2 in the past eight non-conference battles.

-- The under is 9-4 in UAB's past 13 against winning teams, and 10-3 in their past 13 as an underdog. The over is 4-1 in the past five appearances in December, while the over is 8-3 in their past 11 against SBC foes.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2019, 09:31 AM

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Iowa State Cyclones Preview and Predictions 12-28-2019

CAMPING WORLD BOWL STORYLINES

1. Notre Dame meets Iowa State for the first time Dec. 28 in the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, Fla. after both finished their regular seasons with several highlights, but came up short in key moments. The Fighting Irish, making their ninth bowl appearance in 10 seasons, suffered a heartbreaking 23-17 loss at Georgia early in the season and a baffling blowout loss at Michigan (45-14) before closing with five consecutive victories - averaging 43.8 points. Iowa State (4-10 in bowls) has wins over Texas and TCU, but its five losses came by a total of 18 points - including a 42-41 squeaker against Oklahoma, which made the College Football Playoff.

2. The game features two very productive quarterbacks in Notre Dame senior Ian Book and sophomore Brock Purdy of the Cyclones, a pair that combined for 60 touchdown passes and just 15 interceptions. Book struggled at times early on, but threw for 12 scores without an interception in the last three games to become the first Irish signal caller to throw for 2,500 yards, rush for 500 and pass for at least 30 TDs (33) in a single season - and he could elect to come back for a fifth year. Purdy has 3,760 yards passing, completing 66.3 percent of his attempts, and 27 touchdowns to go along with eight rushing scores but did have a season-low 185 yards through the air in the regular-season finale against Kansas State (27-17 loss).

3. Both teams have had their moments on defense as the Fighting Irish allowed 20 or fewer points seven times while Iowa State held nationally-ranked Iowa to 17 and Baylor to 21 in a pair of tough losses. Notre Dame (325.8 yards against, 21st in the nation), which totaled eight sacks against Virginia in September, suffered injuries on the defensive line but still has plenty of talent as junior linebacker Drew White leads the way with 75 tackles and freshman defensive back Kyle Hamilton boasts four interceptions. Senior linebacker Marcel Spears Jr. leads the Cyclones (362.2 yards per game against, 43rd nationally) with 85 tackles and junior defensive back Greg Eisworth was named first-team All-Big 12.

TV: Noon ET, ABC. LINE: Notre Dame -3.5

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (10-2): Book's completion percentage is a bit low (59.3), but he is 213 yards from 3,000 through the air and has thrown just six interceptions - four in two games before none over the last three. The Irish average 4.9 yards per carry and junior Tony Jones Jr. leads the way with 722 yards and five scores on the ground while the team's defense has allowed just 12 rushing TDs - second-fewest in the nation - despite giving up 162.1 yards per contest, which puts it in the middle of the rankings nationally. Senior Chase Claypool (59 catches) needs 109 yards receiving to reach 1,000 with 12 touchdowns - eight in the past four games - and junior tight end Cole Kmet is also a threat with 41 receptions for 482 yards (12, 155 in the last two contests) and six scores.

ABOUT IOWA STATE (7-5): Purdy has 43 touchdown passes in two seasons at the helm of the offense and threw for 315 yards against Washington State in a 28-26 loss at the Alamo Bowl last season, but had two interceptions. Freshman running back Breece Hall boasts four 100-yard rushing games - including one against Oklahoma - and has 842 yards along with nine touchdowns overall for an offense that was ninth out of 10 teams in the conference on the ground (140.3). Purdy has an abundance of talented pass catchers, led by senior Deshaunte Jones (72 receptions, 832 yards, two TDs), sophomore Tarique Milton (33, 689, three), sophomore tight end Charlie Kolar (48, 675, seven) and senior La'Michael Pettway (51, 622, six).

PREDICTION: Notre Dame 34, Iowa State 24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2019, 09:31 AM

Memphis Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Preview and Predictions 12-28-2019

GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL CLASSIC STORYLINES

1. Memphis is enjoying its finest season in program history but the man that guided the 15th-ranked Tigers to a school-record 12 wins and an American Athletic Conference crown will not be there for the Cotton Bowl Classic against No. 12 Penn State on Dec. 28. Head coach Mike Norvell accepted the open position at Florida State moments after the Tigers claimed the AAC title with a win over Cincinnati on Dec. 7. Offensive line coach Ryan Silverfield was named the team's new head coach less than a week later and will lead the team, which has lost four straight bowl games, against the Nittany Lions.

2. Penn State head coach James Franklin had been linked to the Florida State job but is settled in State College after inking a pricey six-year extension while guiding his team to a New Year's Six bowl for the third time in the past four years. His staff is undergoing some changes as well after offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne left to become the head coach at Old Dominion. Penn State is making its first trip to the Cotton Bowl since 1975, when it knocked off Baylor.

3. The matchup to watch is the Tigers' eighth-ranked scoring offense (40.5 points per game) against the Lions' seventh-ranked scoring defense (14.1), led by linebacker Micah Parsons. He will be keeping his eye on junior quarterback Brady White, who entered bowl season ranked ninth among FBS passers with 3,560 yards to go along with 33 touchdowns. White has plenty of support in the form of running back Kenneth Gainwell, a freshman who piled up 1,425 rushing yards and 532 through the air while scoring 15 times.

TV: Noon ET, ESPN. LINE: Penn State -6.5

ABOUT MEMPHIS (12-1): White struggled a bit in the AAC title game by completing a season-low 45 percent of his passes, and he's tossed five of his nine interceptions over the past four games. Senior wide receiver Antonio Gibson, who caught the decisive TD pass in the last win, has been utilized more as a runner as the season progressed and rushed 11 times for 130 yards - 65 on one scoring dash - against the Bearcats. Junior Damonte Coxie is White's favorite target with 68 catches for 1,144 yards and senior linebacker Austin Hall leads the defense with 69 tackles while recording 2.5 sacks and a fumble return for a TD.

ABOUT PENN STATE (10-2): Sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford was enjoying a solid first year as the team's starter until he was hurt early in a loss at Ohio State on Nov. 23, and freshman Will Levis finished out that game and played the finale against Rutgers the following week. Both signal-callers are backed by a handful of running backs that saw featured roles, with sophomore Journey Brown emerging late with three 100-yard games in November. Parsons had a team-high 95 tackles while junior defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos - who declared for the NFL draft but will suit up for the Cotton Bowl - had 8.5 sacks.

PREDICTION: Penn State 30, Memphis 26

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2019, 09:31 AM

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Louisiana State Tigers Preview and Predictions 12-28-2019

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF SEMIFINAL STORYLINES

1. LSU not only survived but thrived through a brutal schedule and earned the No. 1 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings, setting up a matchup with No. 4 Oklahoma in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl in Atlanta on Dec. 28. The Tigers knocked off five teams that were in the top 10 at the time of the matchup, including a 37-10 domination of CFP hopeful Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. That win allowed the Sooners to sneak into the Playoff as the lone one-loss team among the four participants after it survived a showdown with Baylor for the Big 12 title.

2. The Peach Bowl features two of the best offenses in the nation led by quarterbacks who were invited to the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York. LSU's Joe Burrow beat out Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts and Ohio State's Justin Fields and Chase Young for the award after a record-setting campaign that saw him finish second in FBS in passing yards (4,715) and lead the way in touchdown passes (48). "Thirteen-and-0," Burrow told ESPN about what's been most meaningful in a season in which he also took home the Walter Camp Award, Maxwell Award, Davey O'Brien Award, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award and SEC Offensive Player of the Year. "All the records are great, but I have great people and great coaches around me, and a lot of great players. I'm sure you see it on Saturdays. It's not just me out there. And, the cohesion between the coaches and the players is great. We have a great program going on right now."

3. The Sooners are making their fourth appearance in five seasons in the playoffs but are still looking for their first win after falling in the semifinals to Clemson (2015), Georgia (2017) and Alabama (2018). The Tigers appeared in three BCS National Championship Games, including a win over Oklahoma in 2003, but are making their first appearance since the CFP began after rebuilding their offense into a juggernaut behind Burrow, offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger and passing game coordinator Joe Brady, who won the Broyles Award as the top assistant coach in FBS. "This award should say Joe Brady/Steve Ensminger," Brady told reporters after receiving the award. "I'm only at LSU because of Steve Ensminger. I'll never forget that. ... There is not a greater person to work for than Steve Ensminger and there is not a greater person that cares more about LSU and the success of this program."

TV: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: LSU -13

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (12-1): The Sooners have been an offensive powerhouse under coach Lincoln Riley but added defense to the package this season and led the Big 12 with an average of 330.6 yards allowed after letting opponents rack up 453.8 in 2018. "It was just great to see what happens when we decide to just do our job to the best of our abilities and trust the coaching," senior defensive lineman Neville Gallimore told reporters after the defense carried the team in the Big 12 title game. "Having (first-year defensive coordinator Alex) Grinch instill that in us, I'm not going to say it makes that easy, but we're fighting and we know the expectations that we have for our defensive group is so high that it's nothing for us to not listen to all sides. Our focus is trying to play our best ball in crunch-time situations or whatever the situation may be." The offense can still hang with any team in the country and Hurts, who was part of three CFP teams with Alabama and served as the starting quarterback on the 2016 squad before transferring, is the school's third straight Heisman Trophy finalist after Baker Mayfield (2017) and Kyler Murray (2018) took home the last two awards.

ABOUT LSU (13-0): Burrow and Brady weren't the only individuals recognized for the Tigers' brilliant season as wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase took home the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's top wide receiver, safety Grant Delpit won the Thorpe Award as the top defensive back and Ed Oregeron was named the National Coach of the Year. That individual talent led the team to its best regular season since it also went 13-0 before falling to Alabama in the BCS National Championship Game following the 2011 season, but Burrow said he believes the group's success lies in its team-first approach. "We have a bond that can't be broken," Burrow said. "You're going to have to kill us to beat us, I think. That's just the kind of people we are. We built that bond the last two years in the offseason, coming in on Saturdays, working hard, doing it in the weight room."

PREDICTION: LSU 42, Oklahoma 24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2019, 09:31 AM

Clemson Tigers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Preview and Predictions 12-28-2019

PLAYSTATION FIESTA BOWL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF SEMIFINAL STORYLINES

1. Ohio State was expecting the top seed in the College Football Playoff and the potential to face defending national champion Clemson in the championship game, but the Buckeyes will get their shot at the Tigers earlier than anticipated. The committee slid the Buckeyes to the No. 2 seed, setting up a semifinal showdown with the third-seeded Tigers in the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 28 in Glendale, Ariz. It's the second time in four years Clemson and Ohio State have squared off in a semifinal matchup in the Fiesta Bowl after the Tigers routed the Buckeyes 31-0 in 2016.

2. The Tigers are trying to become the first repeat national champion since Alabama rolled to back-to-back titles in 2011 and 2012. Clemson has won 28 consecutive games over the past two seasons, and while the knock on the Tigers is their relatively weak schedule, it didn't hold them back in last year's playoff. The question is how the Tigers will respond if they find themselves in a close game after winning their past eight games by an average of 42.1 points.

3. Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields hopes to be out of the bulky brace he's had to wear on his left knee when he faces Clemson. Fields got the job done with the brace in a 34-21 victory over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, passing for 299 yards and three touchdowns, but his mobility was limited and he wasn't as sharp as usual. The Tigers' defense is known for wreaking havoc in the backfield - they rank 10th nationally in tackles for loss (7.8 per game) and tied for 22nd in sacks (2.85) - so Fields will need to be mobile.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Clemson -2

ABOUT CLEMSON (13-0): Strength of schedule aside, the Tigers might be the most well-rounded team in the nation, leading the country in total defense (244.7 yards per game) and ranked third in total offense (547.7). Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been phenomenal over the past six games following a rocky start to the season, passing for 20 touchdowns with no interceptions, and running back Travis Etienne gives the Tigers a big-play threat on the ground, too. Clemson had allowed more than 14 points only once all season before last week's 63-17 victory over Virginia in the ACC Championship Game.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (13-0): The Buckeyes can also lay claim to the most-rounded title as they rank second nationally in total defense (247.6) and fifth in total offense (531). Fields is the focal point on offense, but running back J.K. Dobbins might be the Buckeyes' most important offensive player, and will need to have a good game for Ohio State to have success against the nation's leader in passing efficiency defense. The Buckeyes get after the quarterback even better than the Tigers, leading the nation with 51 sacks, including 16.5 from national leader Chase Young, and the pass rushers will need to hurry Lawrence to keep the Tigers out of their offensive rhythm.

PREDICTION: Clemson 30, Ohio State 27

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2019, 09:36 AM

New Year's Six opening odds and early action: Bettors pile on LSU in College Football Playoff vs. Oklahoma
Patrick Everson

Joe Burrow led LSU to a 13-0 SU record (8-5 ATS) and the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. The Tigers opened -11.5 vs. Oklahoma at PointsBet USA and were bet up to -13 by Monday.

The College Football Playoff qualifiers are set, as is the field for the rest of the New Year’s Six bowl games. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBet USA in New Jersey.

Peach Bowl

No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 1 Louisiana State Tigers (-11.5)

Louisiana State rumbled through the regular season, including an impressive win at Alabama, and continued rumbling in the Southeastern Conference title game Saturday. The Tigers (13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS) pounded Georgia 37-10 as 7.5-point neutral-site favorites, playing in the same stadium that will host this CFP semifinal on Dec. 28.

Oklahoma had a much bumpier road to the CFP, losing at Kansas State as 23.5-point chalk on Oct. 26, followed by narrow wins in its next three outings. That included falling behind 28-3 at Baylor before rallying for a 34-31 victory. In Saturday’s Big 12 championship game, the Sooners (12-1 SU, 5-8 ATS) got another crack at Baylor and again had a fight on their hands, winning 30-23 in overtime as 9-point faves.

“The high opener and almost immediate adjustment are indicative of each team’s body of work, as well as their respective performances on Saturday,” Chaprales said of a line that’s already shot to Tigers -13. “LSU is a wrecking ball, and it’s clearly going to take an inflated number to oppose them.”

Fiesta Bowl

No. 3 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (+2.5)

Ohio State dropped from No. 1 to No. 2 in the CFP rankings after needing a comeback to beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. The Buckeyes (13-0 SU, 9-4 ATS) trailed 21-7 at halftime, but pitched a second-half shutout en route to a 34-21 victory laying 16.5 points.

Clemson had no such issues in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship matchup, as it secured its fifth straight CFP berth. The Tigers (13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS) hammered Virginia 62-17 laying 29 points in the neutral-site contest.

“This line would have likely been closer to a pick’ em had Ohio State not looked so shaky for a good chunk of the Big Ten title game,” Chaprales said. “That’s reflected in the fact that the first move was toward the Buckeyes.”

Indeed, after opening Clemson -2.5, the line ticked to -2 at PointsBet. This matchup is also Dec. 28, following the Oklahoma-LSU game.

Cotton Bowl

No. 17 Memphis Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (-7)

Penn State dropped two of its last four games – tough road contests against Minnesota and Ohio State – but still snagged a New Year’s Six berth. The Nittany Lions (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) finished the regular season with a 27-6 home win giving 38.5 points against Rutgers.

Memphis earned a New Year’s Six spot by virtue of being the highest-ranked team from the Group of 5 conferences. The Tigers (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) got a late touchdown to outlast Cincinnati 29-24 as 9-point favorites in the American Athletic Conference title game.

“The public will be on Penn State, and the only question is how much higher the number will need to get before we see some sharp resistance on Memphis,” Chaprales said.
This matchup opens the New Year’s Six slate, a noon ET kickoff on Dec. 28.

Orange Bowl

No. 24 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 9 Florida Gators (-12.5)

Florida has two more-than-respectable losses this season, to Southeastern Conference title game participants LSU and Georgia, and has been a solid pointspread play all year. The Gators (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) finished the regular season with a 40-17 victory over Florida State giving 17 points at home.

Virginia made a four-game run through November to earn a spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference final, then hit the wall against Clemson. The Cavaliers (9-4 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) got trucked 62-17 catching 29 points in the neutral-site contest, but still mustered a berth in this Dec. 30 tilt.

Gators money showed up quickly at PointsBet, pushing the line up a full point to Florida -13.5.

“It’s tough to envision much public support for a Virginia team that just got smashed by Clemson,” Chaprales said in assessing this Dec. 30 meeting. “Which is to say, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this line rise even higher.”

Rose Bowl

No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 6 Oregon Ducks (+2.5)

Oregon is perhaps left to wonder what could have been, if it hadn’t inexplicably lost at Arizona State as 13-point chalk in the penultimate regular-season game. The Ducks (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) still reached the Pac-12 title game, where they spoiled Utah’s CFP hopes with a 37-15 victory as 6.5-point pups.

Wisconsin had its own inexplicable loss, at Illinois as a 28.5-point favorite in mid-October, followed a week later by a blowout setback at Ohio State. The Badgers (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) rebounded to reach the Big Ten title game and a rematch with the Buckeyes, and Wisconsin stunningly led 21-7 at halftime. But the Badgers didn’t score the rest of the way, losing 34-21 while cashing as 16.5-point ‘dogs.

“An intriguing matchup in what figures to be one of the highest-handle bowl games, apart from the playoff matchups,” Chaprales said of this New Year's Day clash. “Early action has all come in on Wisconsin, which would indicate this number could be trending toward 3.”

Sugar Bowl

No. 7 Baylor Bears vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5)

Georgia certainly had a shot at a CFP berth by reaching the SEC final, but was no match for now-No. 1 playoff seed LSU. The Bulldogs (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) tumbled 37-10 as 7.5-point underdogs.

After blowing a huge lead at home to Oklahoma in a regular-season loss, Baylor got a shot at redemption and possibly a CFP bid in the Big 12 title game. The Bears (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS) played the Sooners tough Saturday, but fell 30-23 while cashing as 9-point ‘dogs.

“Deja vu for Georgia, which clearly didn’t want any part of the Sugar Bowl last year, and it showed,” Chaprales said, alluding to the Bulldogs’ 28-21 loss to Texas laying 12.5 points. “I’d imagine the public will be interested in a Baylor squad that’s steadily cashed tickets this season and figures to have the motivational edge.”

The Bears head into this New Year's Day game having cashed five in a row and in eight of their last 10 outings.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2019, 09:36 AM

Hot & Not Playoff - Part 1
Matt Blunt

With last week's piece dissecting the conference championship games touched on a few things, the actual selections it suggested – Hawaii against the spread (ATS) and Wisconsin (ATS) – ended up splitting the board. It was a week that saw favorites and underdogs go dead even at 5-5 ATS in the championship games, and while personally I was on the wrong side of that break even split between favorites and 'dogs, it was interesting to see that it did shake out with a .500 record.

And thanks to those results, we've now got the CFB Playoff for this year lined up and it should be a great one no matter how it shakes out. It is interesting to note that there is quite an extended rest between the semi finals and the title game, so keep that in mind when the time comes, as one of LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, or Oklahoma will be your 2019 champion.

Speaking of which, this week's piece aims to help us find which one of those four programs will end up hoisting the trophy, and because of it there will be a change of format. Hopefully it's easy to follow and you can find value in any or all of the information presented, and I do have one thing to mention in that regard.

If you do find value in any of this information and want to share it with the masses out there in the “time vaccum” known as social media, how about giving a little credit where it's due. It doesn't have to be to me personally, but at least to this site because they are the ones willing to put this stuff out there and up on their platform. I've heard it's happened multiple times in the past this year, and while I'm all for sharing of knowledge to help us all become better bettors, there is always a better way to do so in terms of giving credit when it's due. And if you don't find value in the information, that's fine too.

Which does lead me to one of the most popular historical perspective to get bandied about over the next month and it is one that's got very little value from my perspective too. That is the fact that no #1 or #3 seed in the CFB Playoff is something I'm sure you'll hear plenty of in the coming weeks and maybe there is something to that. That would be a negative for LSU and Clemson this year, but I believe the other historical perspectives I'm about to present are much more actionable and they'll be broken down by category in the format change.

Let's get to it, as I've split this piece in two so as to cover everything. And remember, there is always a first time for everything.

*All numbers are pulled from regular season data only (including conference championship games) for the CFB Playoff teams that particular season

ATS Records

2019: LSU: 8-5; Ohio State: 9-4; Clemson: 10-3; Oklahoma: 5-8 ATS

Past numbers

2018: Alabama: 8-5; Clemson: 7-6; Notre Dame: 6-4-2; Oklahoma: 5-7-1
2017: Clemson: 8-4-1; Oklahoma: 8-5; Georgia: 9-4; Alabama: 5-7
2016: Alabama: 9-4; Clemson: 6-7; Ohio State: 6-6; Washington: 7-6
2015: Clemson: 6-7; Alabama: 7-6; Michigan State: 5-7-1; Oklahoma: 9-3
2014: Alabama: 5-8; Oregon: 9-4; Florida State: 3-10; Ohio State: 8-5

Point #1: In the history of the CFB Playoff, every National Champion had at least 5 ATS losses

Positive for: LSU and Oklahoma
Negative for: Ohio State and Clemson

Call it a statistical anomaly or whatever you want, but the best money earner in the market for the season hasn't equated to national titles in the history of the playoff. In the five years we've had it, the best regular season ATS record was pulled off by the 2014 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-5 ATS) while since then it's been records of 7-6, 6-7, 5-7, and 7-6 ATS that have come out on top.

Point #2: The team with the best regular season ATS record has been the runner-up in each of the last three years, and four of the five seasons overall

Negative for: Clemson

No need to spend too much time on this point, as it suggests the defending champs from Clemson will be the ones to get past the Buckeyes in the semis but fall short in the final with their 10-3 ATS record this year. Clemson opened up as a slight favorite as the #3 seed and you know that won't be taken too lightly by the market. But we are simply trying to find the eventual champion, so in terms of this piece, this is actually considered a negative for Dabo Swinney's program. Just another piece of ammunition for his absurd rhetoric train though.

3rd Down Conversion Rate Percentage – Offense

2019: LSU: 49.67; Ohio State: 56.97; Clemson: 47.30; Oklahoma: 49.24

Past numbers

2018: Alabama: 52.55; Clemson: 43.95; Notre Dame: 44.32; Oklahoma: 51.18
2017: Clemson: 45.99; Oklahoma: 43.06; Georgia: 45.70; Alabama: 40.43
2016: Alabama: 48.80; Clemson: 51.09; Ohio State: 48.65; Washington: 44.83
2015: Clemson: 46.70; Alabama: 35.43; Michigan State: 50.53; Oklahoma: 44.58
2014: Alabama: 52.91; Oregon: 49.70; Florida State: 46.05; Ohio State: 51.52

Point #1: In each of the last two CFB Playoffs, and three of the last four, the team with the WORST 3rd down conversion rate percentage has won the title

Positive for: Clemson

We go from a negative to a positive here for the Clemson Tigers, as they are the “worst” of the bunch in staying on the field offensively and keeping drives going on 3rd down. Recent history has treated these teams kindly as the Tigers found themselves in this same spot a year ago at 43.95%, and knocked off the best team (Alabama was 52.55% in 2018) in the dominating fashion in last year's title game.

Point #2: The team with the best 3rd down percentage has only won the national title once – Clemson in 2016

Negative for: Ohio State

Another brief and simple point here, that doesn't exactly work out in Ohio State's favor, as their 56.97% rate is actually the best we've ever seen from any team in the CFB Playoff era. Whether or not that translates into this point being one that gets tossed to the curb this year remains to be seen, as that conversion rate is superb, but also one that's going to be seemingly hard to keep up with the level of competition the Buckeyes will have to go through.

3rd Down Conversion Rate Percentage – Defense

2019: LSU: 29.65; Ohio State: 28.65; Clemson: 30.60; Oklahoma: 31.61

Past numbers

2018: Alabama: 30.34; Clemson: 27.60; Notre Dame: 37.82; Oklahoma: 45.18
2017: Clemson: 28.19; Oklahoma: 38.67; Georgia: 32.95; Alabama: 32.92
2016: Alabama: 30.53; Clemson: 30.17; Ohio State: 30.77; Washington: 31.11
2015: Clemson: 24.86; Alabama: 28.88; Michigan State: 35.06; Oklahoma: 40.00
2014: Alabama: 36.90; Oregon: 41.97; Florida State: 40.98; Ohio State: 36.90

Point #1: Every National Champion in the CFB Playoff era has been either the best, or 2nd best in Opponent 3rd down conversion rate percentage

Positive for: LSU and Ohio State

The old adage that “defense wins championships” tends to be true in the CFB playoff, as teams that are the best of the best in this category tend to find themselves with holding a trophy at the end of it. Considering the only other year we had two of the four teams with a sub-30% opponent 3rd down rate was back in 2015, and they both made it to the title game - Clemson and Alabama squaring off in their first epic championship meeting, that bodes well for both LSU and Ohio State to have a shot at the trophy this year.

In fact, only one team with a sub-30% rate failed to make the title game – Clemson in 2017 – so based on this history, it's hard not to expect a #1 vs #2 matchup in the Final. Those two programs met 12 years ago in the title game when it was also held in New Orleans with LSU winning as the #2 seed, and Buckeyes fans would love to return the favor.

Point #2: The team with the better number in this category when we reach the title game has won four of five national championships – only outlier was in 2015

Positive for: Yet to be determined

This is yet to be determined obviously, but with about two weeks between the semi-finals and the title game, this is something to definitely keep in mind. 2015 was the only outlier but it was also the only year where both finalists were in that sub-30% range which is to say that both were lights out in that regard and Alabama just happened to be a bit better on that day.

Heisman Trophy Winners

2019: Yet to be determined

2018: Kyler Murray
2017: Baker Mayfield
2016: Lamar Jackson
2015: Derrick Henry
2014: Marcus Mariota

Point #1: No Heisman winning QB has gone on to win the National Title, and playoff teams with the Heisman winner are 1-for-4 in terms of winning it all.

Positive for: Ohio State (potentially)
Negative for: LSU (likely)

The rest of the statistical categories will come in Part 2 of this piece, but for those that don't mind ending Part 1 on a bit of fluff, I thought I'd put this in.

Considering that LSU QB Joe Burrow is the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman Trophy this year currently, LSU fans may prefer that not to be the case. But as I said at the opening, there is a first time for everything, and maybe this will be that year that Burrow and LSU break that trend.

That being said, if a non-QB wins the trophy – say DE Chase Young for Ohio State – it's actually turned out to be a positive for that team in terms of their title hopes. RB Derrick Henry was the only Heisman winner to win a title that same year (2015), and should Young pull out the award, Buckeyes fans will be happy to hear it.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2019, 09:36 AM

Hot & Not Playoff - Part 2
Matt Blunt

And so it continues, as there are more statistical categories that I believe have been historically relevant in producing a CFB Playoff winner, and if you have already gone through Part 1 (insert link here) of my breakdown, there is still more to come. No need to labor with the introduction because of it, so let's keep on plugging away:

*All numbers are pulled from regular season data only (including conference championship games) for the CFB Playoff teams that particular season

Takeaways Per Game

2019: LSU: 1.7; Ohio State: 1.9; Clemson: 2.2; Oklahoma: 0.7

Past numbers

2018: Alabama: 1.7; Clemson: 1.5; Notre Dame: 1.7; Oklahoma: 0.8
2017: Clemson: 1.4; Oklahoma: 1.3; Georgia: 1.4; Alabama: 1.5
2016: Alabama: 1.8; Clemson: 1.8; Ohio State: 2.1; Washington: 2.4
2015: Clemson: 1.9; Alabama: 1.8; Michigan State: 2.2; Oklahoma: 2.2
2014: Alabama: 1.5; Oregon: 2.0; Florida State: 2.0; Ohio State: 2.2

Point #1: No team with a Takeaways per game number of 2.0 or greater has made the Title game in the last four years

Negative for: Clemson

More fuel for the fire of Dabo Swinney's rhetoric train here, as on the surface being the best at taking the ball away from your opponent is always a positive. But that hasn't been the case recently in the CFB Playoff as it appears some 'regression to the mean' shows up at the worst time for these teams. There have only been four teams of the past 16 to even have a shot at overcoming this fact, so sample size isn't exactly great, but these are the facts and recent history isn't on Clemson's side here. Swinney does like speaking about “the first time since...” so here's another thing you can have at in that regard.

Point #2: No team with a Takeaways per game number below 1.4 has ever made the Title Game

Negative for: Oklahoma

This far through the piece and the Oklahoma Sooners have yet to really show up on the positive or negative side of anything so far, but they break that goose egg with a negative trend here. Sure, there could be some positive regression to the mean for Oklahoma in the semi-finals, and they'll need it as hefty 'dogs vs LSU.

Winning the turnover battle by multiple possessions may be the only way the Sooners get by a powerhouse like LSU later this month, and it's really only been this same Oklahoma Sooners program that qualifies in this particular role. But history does have a way of repeating itself, and given that the Sooners have forced a grand total of one turnover in their two semi-finals defeats the past two years, turning over LSU this season won't be easy.

Giveaways Per Game

2019: LSU: 0.9; Ohio State: 1.1; Clemson: 1.2; Oklahoma: 1.5

Past numbers

2018: Alabama: 0.9; Clemson: 1.3; Notre Dame: 1.2; Oklahoma: 1.0
2017: Clemson: 1.2; Oklahoma: 0.9; Georgia: 1.0; Alabama: 0.5
2016: Alabama: 1.5; Clemson: 2.0; Ohio State: 0.8; Washington: 0.9
2015: Clemson: 1.9; Alabama: 1.4; Michigan State: 0.9; Oklahoma: 1.3
2014: Alabama: 1.4; Oregon: 0.6; Florida State: 2.2; Ohio State: 1.5

Point #1: Team with the worst Giveaway per game margin has made the Title game in three of the past four years

Positive for: Oklahoma

Ended the last section with the first negative for Oklahoma, so how about a “positive” for the Sooners here. They come into the 2019 CFB Playoff with the most giveaways per game on average of the four teams, and oddly enough that's done well for “teams” in the past.

I put teams in quotations because it's actually been just one program who's accounted for all the success these teams that are loosest with the football have had in the Playoff – Clemson. So there you go Dabo Swinney, a positive for your 2019 team crew in that you enter the playoff for the first time you've been involved in it without the worst giveaway per game margin (or tied) of everyone involved.

But it's hard to think that this is nothing more then dumb luck at times, especially with Clemson accounting for all of those Title game appearances. The Tigers have been a dominant force in the college football landscape for years now, and they have shown they can overcome their mistakes time and time again. Not so sure Oklahoma is as capable to do so, but a historical positive is a historical positive right?

Point #2: Three out of the five Playoffs have seen the team with the lowest Giveaway margin make it to the Title game; However, only one team with a sub-1.0 margin has won it all – 2017 Alabama

Positive for: LSU
Negative for: LSU

Based on that historical fact, LSU fans may be able to have a Happy New Year, but will feel already done with 2020 by the middle of January.

Protecting the football is always one of the best paths for success for any team, and there is nobody better at it in this year's playoff then the LSU Tigers. But whether or not it becomes the pressure of the moment in the Title game, along with being up against another phenomenal team, going the distance rarely seems to happen for the squads that rank the best here.

The 2017 Alabama team was the only one to take it the distance in that regard, and if you remember that 2017 title game, there were some extenuating circumstances. For one, the Tide went up against a familiar conference foe in Georgia, one that was beating them for essentially the entire game before crumbling late.

A LSU foe in this year's title game could end up falling to a similar fate, but Ohio State and Clemson both have guys on their roster who have felt the CFB Playoff pressure before. What that means (if anything) is hard to quantify, but it never hurts to have that knowledge floating around in the back of your mind.

Penalties Per Game

2019: LSU: 6.2; Ohio State: 5.6; Clemson: 5.5; Oklahoma: 6.8

Past numbers

2018: Alabama: 5.5; Clemson: 5.2; Notre Dame: 5.0; Oklahoma: 6.1
2017: Clemson: 5.1; Oklahoma: 6.2; Georgia: 6.7; Alabama: 5.5
2016: Alabama: 5.4; Clemson: 6.7; Ohio State: 6.2; Washington: 5.4
2015: Clemson: 5.8; Alabama: 6.6; Michigan State: 5.3; Oklahoma: 6.2
2014: Alabama: 5.0; Oregon: 8.1; Florida State: 6.6; Ohio State: 5.8

Point #1: The team with the fewest penalties per game has NEVER won the national title

Negative for: Clemson

Again, we've got past results that seem counter-intuitive to what you would believe would happen, as staying disciplined on the football field is always key to success. But this is another case where regression to the mean could be playing out here, especially on such a high profile stage, as these CFB Playoff teams that enter the tournament with the fewest amount of penalties per game just can't translate it into success.

In fact, where there has been a clear cut leader in that regard – every year but 2016 when Alabama and Washington were tied – those teams haven't even made it through to the title game. Turns out that's another negative for Dabo Swinney's Clemson team this year, as I know now that I for sure won't be getting any Christmas cards from him or fans of his program this year.

Penalty Yards Per Game

2019: LSU: 59.5; Ohio State: 53.5; Clemson: 43.6; Oklahoma: 74.1

Past numbers with champion in Bold

2018: Alabama: 48.5; Clemson: 45.6; Notre Dame: 45.5; Oklahoma: 61.5
2017: Clemson: 45.8; Oklahoma: 61.8; Georgia: 58.8; Alabama: 46.6
2016: Alabama: 41.8; Clemson: 59.2; Ohio State: 48.8; Washington: 46.1
2015: Clemson: 47.7; Alabama: 59.6; Michigan State: 43.6; Oklahoma: 61.2
2014: Alabama: 39.7; Oregon: 74.9; Florida State: 51.2; Ohio State: 50.5

Point #1: The team with the fewest penalty yards per game has NEVER won the national title

Negative for: Clemson

This statement was close to ending last year, but it's another relative anomaly when you really think about it. But again, it probably goes back to the whole regression to the mean idea, and that on the biggest stage, those little things said teams may have gotten away with more often then not every Saturday become magnified and exposed.

I'm sure Dabo Swinney and his wonderful use of various rhetoric techniques will be working over the officials every chance he gets, but the history doesn't lie here. After all, he always argues that nobody pays enough attention to the ACC and maybe he's right. Maybe that includes the officials as well who have arguably let his team get away with more then they should throughout the year.

Point #2: EVERY national champion has had between 45.6 and 59.6 penalty yards per game

Positive for: LSU and Ohio State
Negative for: Clemson and Oklahoma

Probably nothing more then a statistical anomaly or looking too much into the numbers, but when that range has been perfect in determining the eventual national champion, I'm not sure you can ignore it. Considering that this is a positive for the top two teams in this year' playoff, it's got to be considered.

Final Tally

Positives For: LSU (4); Ohio State (3); Clemson (1); Oklahoma (2)
Negatives For: LSU (1, with 1 more likely); Ohio State (2); Clemson (6); Oklahoma (2)

I know that there are plenty of ways to pick apart this piece, especially if you like a particular team already.

Knocks against it are sample size, last year's teams have nothing to do with this year's, and even you could view it as confirmation bias in some cases. But regarding the latter, I would like to say that I did not know what to expect to find when backtracking these numbers, so I don't believe there was anything I was looking to confirm going into it. Again, if you find this information valuable great, if not, that's just as good.

But after this trek back through history, the picture does seem somewhat clear in how to bet this year's playoff at least in terms of the futures market. After all, the straight up winner in all 15 CFB Playoff games we've had in history are 12-3 ATS. So pick the outright winner correct and 80% of the time the spread won't matter. Especially when the three point spread losses have come by 3.5 points (2018 semi between Alabama and Oklahoma), 0.5 points (2017 title game between Alabama and Georgia), and 1.5 points (2015 title game between Alabama and Clemson).

The two teams with more historical positives then negatives from these pieces are #1 LSU and #2 Ohio State. To me, those will be your two combatants in the national title game, and with futures prices in the +150 and +225 respectively, you take both and as long as that's the matchup, you'll come out ahead.

And given that if you've followed along with my “Upset Alerts” pieces all year long, you'll know how long my stubborn ass thought it was best to go against Ohio State week after week, there is some pain in saying this, but it is the Ohio State Buckeyes who are my pick to win it all.

Ohio State outperformed market expectations all year long – much to my chagrin – and getting bumped from #1 to #2 in the final rankings - for really doing nothing wrong other then having a slow start in the Big 10 Championship - has to be all the extra motivation they really need to make a title run.

Hopefully they ride that wave of motivation and many of the historical angles I've laid out to a title this year, beating the LSU Tigers 35-31 to win it all.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2019, 09:37 AM

237IOWA ST -238 NOTRE DAME
NOTRE DAME is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

239MEMPHIS -240 PENN ST
PENN ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

241OKLAHOMA -242 LSU
LSU is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game in the current season.

243CLEMSON -244 OHIO ST
CLEMSON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.

243CLEMSON -244 OHIO ST
CLEMSON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2019, 09:37 AM

Saturday, December 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IOWA ST (7 - 5) vs. NOTRE DAME (10 - 2) - 12/28/2019, 12:00:00 P
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MEMPHIS (12 - 1) vs. PENN ST (10 - 2) - 12/28/2019, 12:00:00 P
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OKLAHOMA (12 - 1) vs. LSU (13 - 0) - 12/28/2019, 4:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEMSON (13 - 0) vs. OHIO ST (13 - 0) - 12/28/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OHIO ST is 199-151 ATS (+32.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 199-151 ATS (+32.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 180-136 ATS (+30.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OHIO ST is 121-88 ATS (+24.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OHIO ST is 100-73 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
CLEMSON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEMSON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEMSON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEMSON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CLEMSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
CLEMSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2019, 09:38 AM

NCAAF

Bowl Season

Dec 28- Camping World Bowl, Orlando
Iowa State is 7-5, with three losses by 1 or 2 points, losing by point at both Baylor/Oklahoma. Under Campbell, Cyclones are 17-8-1 ATS as an underdog, 2-0 TY- they were held under 100 RY in four of their five losses. Cyclones are 2-3 in last five bowls, with both wins by a point; underdogs were 4-0 ATS in those games. Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Notre Dame won its last five games since a 45-14 loss at Michigan; they’re +8 in turnovers their last three games. Irish covered their last five games as a single digit favorite, 2-0 TY. ND won three of last five bowls; this is first time in five years the Irish are favored in a bowl. Favorites won/covered this bowl the last three years; average total in this game the last five years: 54.2.

Cotton Bowl, Arlington, TX
Memphis won its last seven games, had a great 12-1 year, but their coach already bolted to Florida State- they beat Ole Miss 15-10 in only Power 5 game TY. Tigers scored 34+ points in 10 of their last 12 games. Tigers lost their last four bowls, losing last two by total of four points; they’re 18-12-2 ATS in last 32 games as an underdog, 0-0 TY. Penn State split its last four games after an 8-0 start, giving up 430.8 ypg, including 383 to Rutgers; PSU is 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games as a single digit favorite, 3-2 TY. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Nittany Lions lost three of last four bowls; average total in their last five bowls: 63.4. Favorites covered Cotton Bowl six of last eight years, with average total of 35.5 last four years.

Peach Bowl, Atlanta
Oklahoma is 58-9 SU last five years, but 1-4 in bowls, giving up 37+ points in all four losses; they were a double digit favorite in every game TY, until now. OU’s best pass rusher got suspended; his backup is hurt. Since 2012, Sooners are 5-2 ATS as an underdog; over last 11 years, they’re 3-1 as a double digit dog. Sooners’ last four games went under. LSU is 13-0, with two wins by less than 14 points; 45-38 (-6) over Texas, 46-41 (+5.5) over Alabama; they never beat Crimson Tide when Hurts played there. Burrow won Heisman; there have been distractions. Tigers are 5-3-1 ATS as a double digit favorite TY. LSU won/covered three of its last four bowls, scoring 35.5 ppg. Underdogs won three of last four Fiesta Bowls SU; average total in last five, 61.2.

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, AZ
Clemson won national title two of last three years, beating Ohio State 31-0 in semis three years ago (Buckeyes’ only loss in last five bowls); Tigers won four of last five bowls, scoring 30+ in all four wins. Clemson is 13-0 TY, covering seven of eight games after a 21-20 escape over UNC, when Tar Heels went for 2-point conversion with 1:17 left, instead of tying PAT. Tigers were favored by 24+ points 12 times TY, by 16 in the other game; they threw ball for 344.8 ypg in last four games. Buckeyes won every game TY by 11+ points, with closest win 28-17 over Penn State. Over last 11 years, Ohio State is 10-1 ATS when getting points. Favorites won/covered three of last four Fiesta Bowls; average total in last five, 51.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2019, 09:39 AM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Bowl Season

Saturday, December 28

Notre Dame @ Iowa State

Game 237-238
December 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Notre Dame
100.685
Iowa State
100.427
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Iowa State
Even
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Notre Dame
by 3 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Iowa State
(+3 1/2); Over

Memphis @ Penn State

Game 239-240
December 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
98.245
Penn State
105.745
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Penn State
by 7 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 6 1/2
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Penn State
(-6 1/2); Under

Oklahoma @ LSU

Game 241-242
December 28, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma
105.498
LSU
123.014
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LSU
by 17 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LSU
by 13 1/2
76
Dunkel Pick:
LSU
(-13 1/2); Under

Clemson @ Ohio State

Game 243-244
December 28, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Clemson
127.867
Ohio State
123.035
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 5
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Clemson
by 2
63
Dunkel Pick:
Clemson
(-2); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2019, 09:40 AM

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 2
Bruce Marshall

Saturday, December 28

IOWA STATE vs. NOTRE DAME (Camping World Bowl)...ISU dropped 4 of last 5 vs. line TY but was 2-0 as dog, and Matt Campbell now 18-8-1 getting points since taking over Cyclones in 2016. Irish 2-5 vs. spread last 7 bowls.
Iowa State, based on team trends.

MEMPHIS vs. PENN STATE (Cotton Bowl)...Tigers weren’t a dog TY, and 3-3-1 in role since 2017. Memphis 0-4 SU and vs. line last four bowls. James Franklin just 2-4 vs. spread last six this season and 2-2 SU and vs. line last four bowls.
Penn State, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA vs. LSU (CFP Peach Bowl)...OU 4-4 vs. line in last eight bowls, 2-1 last 3 as bowl dog. In rare dog role, OU is 3-1 for Lincoln Riley. LSU 9-4 vs. line TY, 11-4 last 15 on board. Tigers 10-5 “over” since late 2018.
Slight to LSU, based on team trends.

CLEMSON vs. OHIO STATE (CFP Fiesta Bowl)...Dabo 9-1 vs. spread last ten bowl/playoff games since 2012, including pair of wins and covers vs. OSU. Clemson on 13-3 spread run since late 2018. Buckeyes 9-4 vs. line TY, 1-2 vs. spread last three bowls.
Clemson, based on team trends.

Saturday 12-28-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 12-28-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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