Sunday 11-24-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 11
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 11 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-2
Against the Spread 8-4-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 5-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-6

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 100-57-1
Against the Spread 68-86-4

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 85-72-1
Against the Spread 67-87-4

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 80-77-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Falcons (+3.5, ML +165) at Panthers, 29-3
Jets (+1.5, ML +105) at Redskins, 34-17

The largest favorite to cover
Bills (-7) at Dolphins, 37-20
Cowboys (-7) at Lions, 35-27
Rams (-5.5) vs. Bears, 17-7
Saints (-5.5) at Buccaneers, 34-17
Patriots (-4.5) at Eagles, 17-10
Ravens (-4.5) vs. Texans, 41-7

The People Are Champs

-- The Dallas Cowboys (-7) dropped the Detroit Lions at Ford Field in the 1:00 p.m. ET window, and bettors laying the flat seven had the benefit of a coach playing the analytics game. Traditionally, being down eight would mean you kick the extra point and are down just seven. However, 'new school' rules have coaches down eight going for two these days. Head coach Matt Patricia instructed QB Jeff Driskel and his offense to go for two, down 35-27. That's how the game ended, as the two-point conversion failed. Cowboys side bettors can send a thank-you note to Patricia and the new-school analytics guys who have fooled coaches into these decisions. The Cowboys are now 3-2 ATS on the road, and 6-4 ATS overall on the season. The 'over' has hit in three in a row, and five of the past six.

Another favorite team of the betting public, the New England Patriots (-4.5) ended up scratching out a 17-10 road win against the Philadelphia Eagles. You didn't really think the QB Tom Brady and the Patriots were going to lose consecutive games, did you? The Patriots bounced back from a road loss on SNF Nov. 3, and they're now 9-1 SU/7-3 ATS. The 'under' has connected in seven games.

The Cowboys and Patriots meet at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. in Week 12, so the public will have to decide which team they like to back more, and which total trend they're feeling more.

Total Recall

-- The two highest totals on the board Sunday were the Houston Texans-Baltimore Ravens (51.5) and New Orleans Saints-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5). The Ravens certainly did their part, scoring 41 points, but the Texans were only able to post seven points. Over bettors were hurt by Baltimore's defense, as well as a scoreless first quarter which is obviously never good for business.

As far as the Saints were concerned, they rebounded after forgetting how to play offense last week at home against Atlanta. They posted 13 points in the opening quarter, and they had 20 points by half. New Orleans posted seven or more points in each quarter, and that was good enough to overcome two scoreless quarters by the Bucs - just barely. The game cashed by a half-point at most shops.

The next two highest games on the board -- the Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers (49) and Cincinnati Bengals-Oakland Raiders (48) games never really took off. The Falcons defense showed up for a second straight week, allowing single-digit points and zero touchdowns in a 29-3 win. The Bengals and Raiders remembered how to play defense, and totaled just 27 points.

There was only one total on the board under 40, and that was the New York Jets-Washington Redskins (37.5) game. The Jets offense was surprising NFL-caliber, posting 34 points, including a career-high four touchdown passes by QB Sam Darnold. In fact, he is now the youngest quarterback in franchise history to toss four TDs in a game, as Hall of Famer Joe Namath was nine days older when he turned the trick in Nov. 21, 1965.

After a six-game 'over' primetime streak, the 'under' has cashed in each of the first two primetime games of Week 11, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Kansas City-Los Angeles Chargers (53) from Mexico City still pending. The 'over' is just 12-21 (36.4%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (hip) reportedly suffered a hip injury late in the loss on the road against the Rams. It's uncertain if he'll miss time, but it's something to watch going forward.

-- Colts RB Marlon Mack (hand) suffered a fractured hand in Sunday's win over the Jaguars. It's uncertain how long he'll be sidelined or if he'll be able to play with a cast, etc.

Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles

-- Thursday's game between the Colts and Texans is an important game between two 6-4 clubs, and it will be interesting to see if Mack is able to play or not. The Texans got licked in Baltimore, so they'll be angry. They also lost 30-23 in the first meeting in Indianapolis back on Oct. 20, so there is the revenge factor, too. Houston enters this one 1-3 ATS in the past four outings, and they're 3-1 SU/1-3 ATS in their four previous home games.

-- The Bucs and Falcons face each other for the first time in six games. The Buccaneers are in a swoon, losing five of the past six while failing to cover six in a row. The one consistent factor for bettors and the Bucs is the 'over', cashing in each of the past eight after two 'under' results to start the season. In fact, the over has hit for the Bucs more often than any other team. It's the opposite for the Falcons, as the 'under' is 7-3 in their 10 games so far. The 'over' has connected in five of the past six meetings in Atlanta, and five of six meetings overall in the series, The home team is also 4-0 ATS in the past four battles with the favorite 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17 meetings.

-- The Panthers and Saints square off in a battle of two teams going in opposite directions. These teams meet for the first of two battles over the final six games. Carolina is 1-3 SU/ATS across the past four outings, and the offense is averaging just 15.5 PPG. For New Orleans, They have posted a 7-1 SU/ATS mark across the past eight. In this series, the over is 6-0 in the past six meetings in New Orleans, and 8-2 in the past 10 overall. Of course, most of those games involved QB Cam Newton, not QB Kyle Allen, although the final meeting of 2018 was, in fact, an Allen start in Week 17. The Panthers won that game 33-14 in NOLA, an 'over' result, but QB Drew Brees didn't play.

-- The Steelers and winless Bengals square off in the Queen City. These teams met in Pittsburgh Sept. 30, with the Steelers winning 27-3 in an 'under' result. This will be QB Ryan Finley's first experience in the rivalry. The offense is averaging just 11.5 PPG in his two starts so far, going 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS. It's expected QB Mason Rudolph will be under center, although it's possible there is still more fallout from 'Helmet-gate', or whatever you want to call the Browns-Steelers brawl last Thursday. Stay tuned.

-- The Jaguars and Titans hook up in the Music City, and QB Nick Foles will make his third start of the season, while QB Ryan Tannehill gets his first start in a Tennessee uni against the Jags. The Jaguars are 3-7-1 ATS in the past 11 against AFC South teams, including 0-1 in Foles' first divisional game in Indianapolis in Week 11. The Titans are 15-33-3 ATS in the past 51 vs. AFC South foes, so something's gotta give. Since taking over as start, the Titans are 3-1 SU/ATS under Tannehill, averaging 26.3 PPG with four consecutive 'over' results. These teams met in Week 3, a 20-7 win by the Jags. But neither of these QBs were under center.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 12 opening odds and early action: Patriots already land $53K bet vs Cowboys
Patrick Everson

Tom Brady has New England tied for the NFL's best SU and ATS records, at 9-1 and 7-3 respectively. The Patriots opened -6.5 at home against the Cowboys in a marquee Week 13 contest.

Week 12 of the NFL season features America’s team against the best team of this millennium. We check in on the opening odds and early action for four games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6.5)

Defending Super Bowl champion New England regained its winning form after a bye week that followed its first loss of the year. The Patriots (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) went off as 4.5-point favorites at Philadelphia and notched a 17-10 victory.

Dallas rebounded from a Week 10 home loss to Minnesota, though Jason Garrett’s troops got a stern test from a Detroit outfit missing Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys (6-4 SU and ATS) claimed a 35-27 win, narrowly cashing as 7.5-point road favorites.

“We opened Patriots -6.5 and are still there, despite taking a bet of $53,500 on New England already,” Murray said. “This will be one of the highest-handle games of the year to date.”

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4)

Like New England, San Francisco rebounded from its first setback of the season, though Jimmy Garoppolo and Co. got a fight from Arizona. The 49ers (9-1 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) won 36-26, returning a fumble for a touchdown on the game’s last play to push as 10-point home favorites.

Green Bay is coming off its bye week with an 8-2 SU mark, and it’s tied for the league lead at 7-3 ATS. In Week 9, the Packers topped Carolina 24-16 laying 5 points at home.

“The Sunday night game will also be a huge-handle game,” Murray said. “I’m expecting a lot of public support for the ‘dog. The 49ers are very banged up, and the Packers are coming in off their bye. I could see this number drifting closer to pick.”

Indeed, shortly after opening the Niners -4, the line tightened to 49ers -3 (even).

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3.5)

Indianapolis lost starting quarterback Andrew Luck to a surprise retirement two weeks before the season began. Yet through 11 weeks, the Colts (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) are tied atop the AFC South after rolling over Jacksonville 33-13 as 2.5-point home faves Sunday.

Houston gave up sole possession of first in the division with a dud of a Week 11 performance. The Texans (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) mustered only one score – a fourth-quarter TD after trailing 34-0 – in a 41-7 loss at Baltimore catching 4 points.

This battle for the division lead kicks off Week 12, as it's the Thursday night game.

“Our look-ahead line was Texans -5.5, but that was before the Texans got crushed by the Ravens and the Colts put together an impressive win over the Jaguars,” Murray said. “Houston has struggled in this home-favorite role in recent seasons.”

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9)

Drew Brees missed five games for New Orleans, but his team still owns a three-game lead in the NFC South. In Week 11, Brees and the Saints (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) dumped Tampa Bay 34-17 giving 5 points on the road.

Carolina made a 5-1 SU and ATS run to start turning heads, then dropped two in a row SU and ATS. The Panthers (5-5 SU and ATS) were 3.5-point home favorites Sunday against Atlanta and came up with a mere fourth-quarter field goal in a 29-3 beatdown.

“We opened Saints -9 and quickly moved up to -9.5,” Murray said. “New Orleans will be a very popular public side included in many parlays and moneyline parlays.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

251MIAMI -252 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 26-55 ATS (-34.5 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.

253DENVER -254 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 46-77 ATS (-38.7 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.

255PITTSBURGH -256 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after going under the total in the current season.

257NY GIANTS -258 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 53-27 ATS (23.3 Units) after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

259OAKLAND -260 NY JETS
OAKLAND is 18-44 ATS (-30.4 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.

261CAROLINA -262 NEW ORLEANS
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 - 13 in the last 2 seasons.

263TAMPA BAY -264 ATLANTA
TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 straight overs in the current season.

265DETROIT -266 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 17-4 ATS (12.6 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.

267JACKSONVILLE -268 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) revenging a loss where team scored less than 14 points since 1992.

269DALLAS -270 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

271GREEN BAY -272 SAN FRANCISCO
GREEN BAY is 74-47 ATS (22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

273SEATTLE -274 PHILADELPHIA
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Sunday, November 24

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MIAMI (2 - 8) at CLEVELAND (4 - 6) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 61-86 ATS (-33.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 36-56 ATS (-25.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (3 - 7) at BUFFALO (7 - 3) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (5 - 5) at CINCINNATI (0 - 10) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 109-80 ATS (+21.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (2 - 8) at CHICAGO (4 - 6) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 39-66 ATS (-33.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (6 - 4) at NY JETS (3 - 7) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 55-85 ATS (-38.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 41-83 ATS (-50.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (5 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (8 - 2) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CAROLINA is 120-90 ATS (+21.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (3 - 7) at ATLANTA (3 - 7) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 65-43 ATS (+17.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
ATLANTA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (3 - 6 - 1) at WASHINGTON (1 - 9) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 31-53 ATS (-27.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 146-183 ATS (-55.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-124 ATS (-44.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-124 ATS (-44.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 92-124 ATS (-44.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
WASHINGTON is 25-49 ATS (-28.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (4 - 6) at TENNESSEE (5 - 5) - 11/24/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 119-157 ATS (-53.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 4-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (6 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (9 - 1) - 11/24/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 134-102 ATS (+21.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 134-102 ATS (+21.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 198-149 ATS (+34.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-89 ATS (+31.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-56 ATS (+29.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (8 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (9 - 1) - 11/24/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 198-142 ATS (+41.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 74-47 ATS (+22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (8 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 5) - 11/24/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 12

Trend Report

Sunday, November 24

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Chicago is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games at home
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Chicago's last 14 games when playing NY Giants
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
NY Giants is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 10 of NY Giants's last 14 games when playing Chicago
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
New Orleans is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
New Orleans is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games at home
New Orleans is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Buffalo is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Buffalo is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games when playing Denver
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Denver's last 19 games
Denver is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 10 games on the road
Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Denver is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Denver is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 3-14-2 ATS in its last 19 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 8-16-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Cleveland's last 25 games at home
Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Miami
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games
Miami is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
Miami is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games on the road
Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Cleveland

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games at home
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 7-12-3 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

Washington Redskins
Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Washington is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games at home
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Washington is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Detroit is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing Washington
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Detroit is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington

New York Jets
NY Jets is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games
NY Jets is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games
NY Jets is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
NY Jets is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Jets's last 12 games at home
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing Oakland
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
NY Jets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Oakland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games
Oakland is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Oakland is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets

Philadelphia Eagles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Philadelphia is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Philadelphia's last 18 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Seattle's last 19 games
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games on the road
Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia

Tennessee Titans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Tennessee is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 9 games at home
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 6-10-2 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 7-13-2 ATS in its last 22 games
Jacksonville is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
Jacksonville is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Jacksonville is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee

New England Patriots
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 11 games
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 9 games at home
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing New England

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 6-13-3 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Green Bay
San Francisco is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 24 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Green Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report - Week 12
Matt Blunt

Week of November 18th

Last week's piece touched on a few different live scenarios that were out there in the NFL this past weekend, and for the most part the runs those specific spots were on didn't hold up quite as well. Bad teams coming off a win like Cleveland, Atlanta, and the NY Jets all got their first against the spread (ATS) victories the following week in the past few days, while the offenses that had had a decent time bouncing back after sub-10-point efforts finished the day 1-2 ATS.

Hopefully some of you were able to catch (and play) the friendly reminder on fading teams post-London, as Houston and Jacksonville both got run out of the building in their respective games, to push that situation to a perfect 0-8 ATS this season. And all eight of those losses after a London game come post-bye week as well. Maybe that suggests we all put too much stock into bye weeks as it is, and it will be interesting to see if it holds up for the Chargers and Chiefs in a couple of weeks after their MNF game in Mexico this evening.

This week I'm sticking with the NFL as there are two specific divisions that have generally done well either going against or playing on their teams in non-division games, a situation that you'll see most of them in this week.

So let's get right to it:

Who's Hot

NFC West teams are 19-10 ATS in non-division games overall – on a 11-5 ATS run since October 1st

In what is a loaded NFC conference at the top, it's the NFC West division that leads the way in terms of a depth argument in that conference. San Francisco and Seattle are neck-and-neck right now for the division title, while the defending champion Los Angeles Rams are trying to hold strong to stay in the Wildcard race. With Arizona improving as well, venturing into playing a NFC West opponent has not gone well for most that are outside of the division.

The Cardinals are actually tied with the Rams for the best non-division ATS record in the NFC West at 6-2 ATS, with San Francisco (4-2 ATS) and Seattle (3-4 ATS) coming in behind them. Given that the 49ers and Seahawks each have an ATS loss that's been by a point or less since the start of this great run for the division since October 1st, that number could be sitting much better then it already is.

Heading into Week 12, we've got the Arizona Cardinals off on their bye week, but the rest of this division is all up against non-conference foes. Seattle travels east to face an Eagles team that is trying their best to keep both avenues (division title and wildcard) to the playoffs open as long as possible, while San Francisco and the L.A. Rams both get the NFL prime time treatment at home, with the 49ers hosting the Packers on SNF, and the Rams hosting the Ravens on MNF. All three of these games have lines where the favorite is essentially laying just 3 points or less right now, so they are all expected to be close.

If that's the case, maybe we see this great run for NFC West teams in non-division games hit a bit of a road block. Yet, it will be interesting to see where the support lands on these contests as the week goes on, because one specifically ties into the next streak, and that is...

Who's Not

NFC East teams are 10-18 ATS in non-division games overall – on a 7-11 ATS run since October 1 – Not one of the four teams have a winning ATS record in non-division games in 2019

The NFC East is a division is nothing more then a two-horse race between Dallas and Philadelphia, with the loser likely missing out on the playoffs entirely. The Giants and Redskins are two of the Top 5 worst teams in the league, so fading them as a good thing isn't too surprising, but the fact that this entire division struggles against the rest of the league does say something about how mediocre the level of football this division plays that they pass off as good.

Now to be fair, Philly is one of those two teams fighting for this division crown, and do own the best non-division record in the NFC East at 4-4 ATS. But that's as close to a winning record as any of these four teams get after Week 11, as the Cowboys are 2-4 ATS while Washington and the NY Giants are each 2-5 ATS outside of the division. The records of the latter two teams are likely to continue to get worse before they definitively get better, while the team that does better in their remaining non-division games between the Eagles and Cowboys is likely the one that rides that success to a division crown. But it's Week 12 brings some interesting games for all four of these teams, as they are all stepping outside of the division as well.

The Giants are on the road catching about a TD currently in Chicago and the Redskins are catching a FG at home against the Lions. Both of those teams are facing teams with QB concerns from a health standpoint right now, so it will be interesting to see what kind of movement they end up seeing.

Dallas finds themselves in New England to take on a great Patriots team, a game Eagles fans are hoping New England can win. Dallas finds themselves catching about six points early on, and given that it's under that key number of -7 and this being a spot where fading NFC East teams has been profitable, seeing if the Patriots ever touch -7 again will be interesting as well.

And finally there are the Eagles, at home and laying about two points, to a team that's already been mentioned in this piece; the Seattle Seahawks.

The 2019 history of non-division games for teams from the NFC West and NFC East suggest that backing Seattle against the number is the only way to look here. You are backing the Seahawks in a “hot” role, fading the Eagles in a “cold” role at the same time, and getting points with the better team. Very hard not to like Seattle this week, for many other reasons as well.

And while the other three games featuring NFC East teams will be intriguing from a reactionary standpoint in terms of where their point spreads line up, this Seahawks/Eagles game is one where you've got to be proactive if you are already leaning towards the Seattle side. This line is far more likely to sniff the 'pick'em' range then it will getting to Philly -3, so getting down action on Seattle sooner rather then later is probably the best course of action here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 12 odds: Now's not the time to bet the Niners
Jason Logan

Books are bracing for underdog money on the Packers Sunday night, so if you like the 49ers you may want to play it cool and see if you can get San Francisco under the key number of a field goal.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 12 board.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6, 46)

Being “America’s Team”, the Cowboys always attract action at the window from legions of Dallas backers blindly betting the Boys. And it would seem, even in a matchup with the defending Super Bowl champs, early money is siding with Dallas.

The Cowboys opened as big as +6.5 at New England in Week 12 and books have trimmed that down to +6 at most books. The juice on Patriots -6 is seeing a discount as low as -105 and there’s even a -5.5 on the board as of Monday afternoon.

New England hasn’t been overwhelmingly impressive this season and is coming off an ugly win over Philadelphia this past Sunday. Dallas also took a “fugly” victory over a Stafford-less Detroit squad but the offense is firing on all cylinders – something Tom Brady & Co. can’t say after scoring 20 and 17 points respectively in their last two games. If you like the Cowboys collect the points at the key number of six while it still stands.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3, 45.5)

According to bookmakers, they expect money on the underdog Packers in this Sunday Night Football showdown. San Francisco hasn’t looked great in its last three games: two near losses to Arizona and a OT defeat at the hands of Seattle. Granted, the 49ers were dealing with dual-threat dynamos, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson, who amounted for 154 yards rushing on 19 total carries in those three games.

Green Bay gunslinger Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons in his arsenal but he’s not as spry as those two QBs. The Cheeseheads are coming off a bye in Week 11, but before that squeaked out a win against Carolina (was McCaffrey in?) and fell to the L.A. Chargers.

San Francisco should get some bodies back in Week 12, with kicker Robbie Gould coming around and TE George Kittle listed at day-to-day. If you’re giving the Niners the nod, wait it out and see how low you can grab them under the key of a field goal.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 45.5 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT HOUSTON TEXANS

This number has made a significant dive, from as high as 47 to 45.5 points. Now might be the time to strike if you like the Over. For one: this is a primetime game and the public loves to root for high-scoring football in those night games, so action on the Over is expected.

The Colts will lean on the arm of QB Jacob Brissett more with RB Marlon Mack out with a hand injury. Indianapolis runs the ball on 47 percent of snaps but may have to resort to the air more often in this AFC South matchup, lending value to the Over. Brissett did enjoy his best game of the season at home to the Texans in Week 7, passing for three touchdowns on 326 yards - a game that scored 53 total points and topped the 46.5 Over/Under.

Houston just got cracked for 41 points versus Baltimore and hasn’t been that stout a defense in 2019, allowing 30 or more points four times this season. The Texans offense – namely Deshaun Watson – will be eager to shake a stinky 7-point showing in Week 11, in which the QB passed for only 169 yards and an interception. Beat the public to the window and bet this Over now.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 39 PITTSBURGH STEEELERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS

This total is already on the way down, moving from 39.5 to 39, and I project it going even lower between now and kickoff Sunday. The Steelers mustered only seven points in a short week versus Cleveland last Thursday, which is fresh in everyone’s mind. But before that ugly result, Pittsburgh’s offense was finding its footing, averaging 24 points between Weeks 4 and 10 with second-stringer Mason Rudolph at the wheel.

The Bengals surrendered 27 points in a Week 4 loss at Pittsburgh, managing a lonely field goal in rebuttal. Cincinnati hasn’t been much better ever since, averaging only 15 points per outing in the six games since that dismal Monday night display.

That said, with a total this low, Over bettors may not need much more from Cincy to slide in above the number. The Bengals are notably better on offense at home - 17.5 points per home game versus 12.5 points per away game – and are 6-2-1 Over/Under in their previous nine games inside Paul Brown Stadium. If you like the Over, set your Covers Live App alert and see if you can get something in the 38-point range later in the week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 12 odds: Browns-Steelers brawl bleeds over into schedule
Jason Logan

Both the Browns and Steelers could be falling into spot bets in NFL Week 12 coming off a crazy finish to Cleveland's win last Thursday night.

The schedule can make or break an NFL team at this point in the season. And it can do the same for your wagers. Situational handicapping should always be folded into – or at least considered when sizing up the NFL odds each week.

Senior industry analyst Jason Logan looks at the Week 12 slate and picks out his favorite “Letdown”, “Lookahead”, and “Schedule” spots and how those situations could shake down at the sportsbook.

LETDOWN SPOT: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-11, 44)

The Browns had one hell of a Week 10, knocking off rival Pittsburgh on Thursday Night Football and picking up their second straight win. In the midst of all that, standout DE Myles Garrett got into it with Steelers QB Mason Rudolph and tried knocking his head off with his own helmet.

It made for a very messy week in Ohio – a week in which Cleveland should have enjoyed a mini bye and some extra time to tinker before Week 12. However, the added stress and media attention marred what could have been a turning point for the Browns’ 2019 season.

The Week 12 opponent – Miami – is a tough team to get up for in the first place, and this letdown angle comes with a sprinkle of lookahead as well. Next up for the Browns: a trip to Heinz Field to play Pittsburgh in Week 13. Cleveland is currently laying 11 points versus the Dolphins at home this Sunday.

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (+6.5, 39)

Hey, what do you know? The other side of that Thursday’s night dramafest falls into one of our weekly spot bet slots. Pittsburgh can’t wait to get another crack at Cleveland after: 1. Losing to the Browns 21 -7 2. The Garrett incident which equalled a suspension for C Maurkice Pouncey and a fine for Rudolph.

But before the Steelers can exact revenge, they have another AFC North foe from Ohio standing in the way. The winless Bengals are a main ingredient for a lookahead spot, having cracked the 20-point plateau just twice all season. The last time Pittsburgh played Cincinnati, it rolled to a 27-3 victory on Monday Night Football in Week 4.

Oddsmakers are giving the host Bengals 6.5 points and that spread has already flirted with a touchdown at some markets, instantly taking money on Cincinnati and sliding the line back under the key number. According to our Covers Consensus, 70 percent of the early ticket count is on Pittsburgh so expect a move to Steelers -7 before kickoff.

SCHEDULE SPOT: OAKLAND RAIDERS AT NEW YORK JETS (+3, 45.5)

People love to play against West Coast teams coming east for an early 1 p.m. ET start, which is 10 a.m. PT back home. While blindly betting against those qualifying teams is a bad decision, the Raiders have played into this notion in recent years.

Heading into a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in East Rutherford, Oakland is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight 1 p.m. ET kickoffs. This season, the Silver and Black have done a few of these early wakeups, losing SU and ATS at Minnesota in Week 3, winning and covering in Indianapolis in Week 4, winning and covering versus Chicago in London in Week 5, and losing and coming up short ATS at Green Bay in Week 7.

The Raiders played a road-heavy stretch of schedule during that span but have enjoyed three straight home games before this matchup with the Jets. Oakland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 away games overall – regardless of start time – and the home team has been the hot bet when these teams clash, with hosts going 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's Top ATS Teams:

t1. Patriots 7-3 ATS
t1. Packers 7-3 ATS
t1. Saints 7-3 ATS
t1. Rams 7-3 ATS
t1. Cardinals 7-3-1 ATS
6. Bills 5-3-1 ATS
t7. Cowboys 6-4 ATS
t7. Raiders 6-4 ATS
t7. Steelers 6-4 ATS
t7. Broncos 6-4 ATS


NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

32. Buccaneers 2-8 ATS
t29. Redskins 3-7 ATS
t29. Giants 3-7 ATS
t29. Bears 3-7 ATS
t27. Browns 3-6-1 ATS
t27. Chargers 3-6-2 ATS
t22. Bengals, Jets, Lions, Falcons, Eagles 4-6 ATS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 12
Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Nov. 24

MIAMI at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins have covered 5 of last 6 TY ith Fitzpatrick at QB including three straight on road. Browns still just 3-6-1 vs. spread this season after Steelers win and 1-4-1 last six vs. line.
Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on recent trends.


DENVER at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Broncos have covered 5 of last 6 TY, Bills just 3-3 as chalk. Denver on 15-4 “under” run, Buffalo “under” 9-4 last 13, 16-8 since early 2018.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Broncos, based on “totals” and team trends.


PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Steel still 6-2 last 8 vs. line after Browns loss. Steel “under” 6-2 last 8 TY and “under” 12-5 last 17 since late 2018. Cincy 0-4 vs. line at home TY, 1-9 last 10 vs. spread at Paul Brown. Bengals “under” 9-4-2 last 14 since late 2018. Steel 6-2 vs. spread last 8 in series and has covered 4 of last 5 at Cincy.
Tech Edge: Steel and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


N.Y. GIANTS at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men 1-5 vs. spread last six TY, though have covered 2 of last 3 as road dog, and 8-3 in role since LY. NY “over” 12-6 last 18 since mid 2018. Bears 3-8 last 10 vs. spread, “under” 14-3 last 17 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.


OAKLAND at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders have covered 5 of their last 7 in 2019, also “over” 6-4 TY. Interestingly only three games as chalk since LY (2-1 in role). Jets “over” last 4 TY.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Raiders, based on “totals” and team trends.


CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers 5-3 vs. line last eight TY (though 0-2 L2), 2-2 as road dog TY after 0-3 mark in role LY. Saints have won and covered seven of last eight this season. Note last five meetings “over” at Superdome.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs no covers last six TY, also “over” 9-2 since late 2018. Falcs have covered last three TY after five Ls in a row prior. Home team has covered last four meetings. “Overs” 5-1 last six in series.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Falcons, based on “totals” and series trends.


DETROIT at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions no covers last 5 TY, though Skins only 2-8 vs. line since late 2018. Skins “under” 6-1 last seven TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.


SEATTLE at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Seahawks 5-0 SU and 4-1 vs. line away TY. Hawks 10-1-1 last 12 as dog. Eagles 4-10-1 last 15 reg season vs. line at Linc.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.


JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Jags 3-2 vs. line as visitor TY, though have lost and failed to cover last four at Nashville. Home team has now covered last five Titans games TY (Tenn 3-0 last 3 at home). Titans “over” last 4 TY, Jags “over” last 4 as visitor.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


DALLAS at NEW ENGLAND (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Dallas 7-6 vs. spread away in reg season since LY, also “over” 8-3 last 11 reg season. Belichick on 16-4 spread run at Gillette Stadium, and 15-4 “under” run in reg season.
Tech Edge: Patriots and slight to “under,” based on team and Belichick “totals” trends.


GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Pack 7-3 vs. line TY, 3-1 vs. spread away. Pack 2-0 as dog TY. Niners only 3-4-1 vs. spread last eight TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Pack, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


COLTS CONTROL THE LINE

The Indianapolis Colts’ Marlon Mack fractured his hand last Sunday and will be out for Thursday’s game against the Houston Texans. Coach Frank Reich told reporters that Nyheim Hines will stick with his passing role as either Jordan Wilkins or Johnathan Williams will take over the early-down work. The lead spot should be Williams’ as Wilkins was inactive in Week 11 with an ankle injury, a DNP on the team’s estimated practice report on Monday and limited on Tuesday.

The Colts ran for a robust 264 yards versus the Texans as Williams passed the century mark in his fill-in role on just 13 touches. Indy’s offensive-line has been dominating the line of scrimmage of late and all year as they are rushing for an average of 170.7 yards in the last three games (second-most) and 172.2 yards per game on the road (second-most).

Houston gave up 264 rushing yards last week to the best rushing team in the league but have also surrendered the ninth-most yards per rush this year and the third-most over the last three weeks.

We are banking on the Colts’ running game and feel this is a plus matchup for Williams in a divisional game that will decide an AFC South leader. Even if Wilkins dresses, we still like the Colts to feature the run and hand out double-digit rushes to Williams. Take Williams’ rushing total on any number below 65 yards.


CHECK DOWN VALUE

Nick Foles got his job back last week and fell short in a 33-13 loss to the Colts. The Jaguars QB padded his stats in garbage time and fell in love with his checkdowns as he averaged just 6.3 yards per pass attempt — that’s Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky territory. Still, Foles attempted 47 passes and completed 33 which makes us think there is some value in Jacksonville’s receivers' reception totals for their Week 12 matchup against a Tennessee Titans 22nd-ranked pass defense.

The object of Foles’ attention last week was receiver D.J. Chark. Chark was the most targeted receiver in the league last week catching eight of his 15 targets while seeing 36 targets in his last three matches. If Foles is afraid to take his shots, Chark could easily surpass a reception total of 4 or 5.

We will take the Over on any total below six for Chark’s reception total.


PRIMETIME 3-TEAM TEASER

Here is a three-team, six-point teaser for this week’s primetime games that pays out +160.

IND +9.5 @ HOU: As mentioned above, the Colts could dominate this game on the ground and control the tempo versus a Texans team is 1-3 ATS as the favorite this year. DeShaun Watson is also just 1-2 versus the Colts over his career losing by seven this year, winning by three in Indianapolis in 2018 and losing by a field goal at home in Week 13 last year.

GB @ SF +3: San Francisco will look to ride the momentum from last week’s come-from-behind win and will get to do so on Sunday Night Football versus Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Packers let a terrible Panthers team hang around and escaped with a win in Week 10 before hitting their bye in Week 11. Rodgers hasn’t looked great in his last two starts, going 40 for 64 for just 394 yards and one TD since Week 9. We don’t see GB winning by more than thre

BAL +3 @ LAR: Baltimore may be the best team in football but the fact that they are only three-point favorites versus a team led by a quarterback who is 27th in QBR — just ahead of Andy Dalton and Mitch Trubisky — is disrespect to Lamar Jackson. Goff may have more passing weapons back for the Monday nighter, but the Rams have averaged just nine points per game against top-10 DVOA defenses since Week 3.


BYE THE BOOK

Since Week 4, teams coming off their bye week are 9-15 against the spread. Of those games, favorites are 5-5 ATS but the dogs are having the most problems going 4-10 ATS to date. This week has four teams coming out of their bye week, with three of those four being underdogs.

Seattle (+1.5) will probably be a popular public pick this week and we don’t blame backers as that Eagles' offense isn’t threatening with a receiving core that featured Jordan Matthews last week.

The Giants (+6.5) could roll into Chicago and surprise a team that doesn’t know who will be starting at quarterback thanks to a mysterious hip-pointer injury to Mitch Trubisky. If Daniel Jones and the offense can limit turnovers (2.5 per game), then the Giants have a good shot at covering and bucking the trend.

Green Bay (+3) is our favorite bye team to not cover this week. The Packers’ struggling passing offense will be in for a battle versus San Fran’s No. 2 pass defense. The Niners are tightening things up even more at home as they are giving up just 132 yards through the air at Levi’s Stadium — the lowest mark in the league. The 49ers are 5-0 ATS on spreads less than six points.


NO TDS IN 10 QUARTERS

No defense is hotter than Atlanta Falcons’. The former bottom-five defense has held opponents to 13 points a game over the last three weeks and will look to make it a natural clean sweep against divisional opponents as they entertain the Buccaneers on Sunday.

Atlanta held the Saints’ No.8 offense to just nine points (three field goals) on the road and embarrassed the Panthers by giving up just a field goal last week. Now they get to tee off on a quarterback who has six interceptions, two fumbles and has been sacked six times in his last two games. Look for the Falcons’ pass rush to bully Jameis Winston all day after sacking Drew Brees six times in Week 10 and Kyle Allen five times in Week 11.

We are betting on a surging defense that hasn’t allowed a TD in their last 10 quarters while at the same time fading a quarterback who could lose his job at any moment. Take the Buccaneers’ team total Under 23.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 12:

Road Teams: 90-68-4 ATS
Home Teams: 68-90-4 ATS

Favorites: 69-89-4 ATS
Underdogs: 89-69-4 ATS

Home Faves: 41-62-4 ATS
Home Dogs: 27-28 ATS

Road Faves: 28-27 ATS
Road Dogs: 62-41-4 ATS

O/U: 79-83

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Buccaneers 8-2 O/U
t2. Cowboys 7-3 O/U
t2. Lions 7-3 O/U
t4. Cardinals 7-4 O/U
t4. Chiefs 7-4 O/U
t6. Baltimore, Carolina, Indianapolis, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland & Seattle all tied at 6-4 O/U


NFL's Top Under Teams:

1. Chargers 8-3 U/O
t2. Falcons 7-3
t2. Bills 7-3
t2. Bears 7-3
t2. Bengals 7-3
t2. Rams 7-3
t2. Patriots 7-3
t2. Steelers 7-3
t9. Cleveland, Denver, Houston, Miami, & Washington all tied at 6-4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Semis
David Schwab

Both road underdogs shook things up early in this season’s CFL playoffs. In the first of two division semifinal showdowns on Sunday, Edmonton upended Montreal 37-29 closing as a 2 ½-point underdog on the road. The total in that crossover matchup went well OVER the closing 49 ½-point line.

In a West Division battle later that day, Winnipeg is moving on in the playoffs with a stunning 35-14 road upset against the defending champion Calgary Stampeders. The Blue Bombers were four-point underdogs and the total slipped OVER the 48 ½-point total line.

Sunday, Nov. 17

Edmonton (9-10 SU, 6-12-1 ATS) at Hamilton (15-3 SU, 12-5-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Tiger-Cats -6
Total: 50.5

Game Overview

The Eskimos struggled over the second half of the CFL regular season with just two straight-up victories in their previous nine games. They went just 1-7-1 against the spread in that same span. Edmonton improved to 3-6-1 ATS on the road this season with Sunday’s upset in Montreal. The total has gone OVER in three of its last five games. It is 2-5-1 ATS in eight games this season closing as an underdog.

One of the reasons why the Eskimos struggled to win games recently was an injury to quarterback Trevor Harris. He is also the reason why they still have a chance to play in this year’s Grey Cup title game. He completed an amazing 92.3 percent of his 39 passing attempts for 421 yards and a score in Sunday’s win. Even though he missed six regular season games, Harris was second in the CFL in total passing yards with 4,027. He tossed 16 touchdowns against six interceptions.

Hamilton was probably preparing for Montreal in this division final tilt, but it now has to complete a three-game sweep against Edmonton after winning a pair of regular season matchups both SU and ATS. The Tiger-Cats rolled to a 42-12 home victory over the Eskimos on Oct. 4 as seven-point favorites. They failed to cover in a meaningless three-point win over Toronto in the season finale after covering ATS in six previous games. Hamilton brings a SU six-game winning streak into Sunday’s contest.

The Tiger-Cats lost Jeremiah Masoli at quarterback just six weeks into the season. However, Dane Evans took over the starting role in stride. He ended the year sixth on the list in total passing yards with 3,754. He also threw 21 scoring strikes against 13 picks. Another key factor in this game could be Brandon Banks as the CFL’s leading receiver in both yards (1,550) and touchdown catches (13).

Betting Trends

-- With the two SU victories this season, Hamilton has a 4-1 edge against Edmonton SU in the last five meetings. However, the Eskimos are still 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games against the Tiger-Cats. The total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings overall.

Winnipeg (12-7 SU, 13-6 ATS) at Saskatchewan (13-5 SU, 12-5-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Roughriders -3.5
Total: 44

Game Overview

The Blue Bombers came up with a stellar effort against Calgary when they needed it the most. They lost five of their last eight games SU before Sunday’s win. This was actually their third game in a row against Calgary after splitting a season-ending home-and-home series SU. Winnipeg has been able to cover the closing spread in its last four games and in eight of its previous 11 contests. The total has gone OVER in five of its last seven games.

Trailing 14-8 at halftime, the Blue Bombers own the final two quarters by outscoring Calgary 27-0. Both Zach Collaros and Chris Streveler saw action at quarterback in this game. Collaros ended the day with 193 yards passing and one touchdown throw while Streveler was used more for his running ability with a game-high 82 yards and a score on 13 rushing attempts. Winnipeg’s defense deserves a great deal of the credit after holding Calgary to just 116 yards through the air.

Saskatchewan proved itself to be the best team in the competitive West Division all season long. Going all the way back to late July, the Roughriders reeled off 12 SU wins in 14 games while going a profitable 10-3-1 ATS. They split a home-and-home series against Winnipeg SU in early September before winning the season series with a 21-6 win at home on Oct. 5 as 3 ½-point favorites. The total stayed UNDER in each of those three matchups. Saskatchewan is 9-3-1 ATS this season closing as a favorite. It went 5-3-1 ATS at home.

Cody Fajardo took over the starting quarterback position early in the season and went on to lead the CFL in passing yards with 4,302. He completed a solid 71.5 percent of his 473 passing attempts. He posted 18 passing touchdowns while getting picked off eight times. William Powell led the ground game with 1,093 yards rushing and 12 touchdown runs on 215 carries. Fajardo also showed some excellent mobility running the ball with 611 rushing yards and 10 scores on 107 rushing attempts. There is concern for this game given a strained oblique, but he is insisting he will play.

Betting Trends

-- The Blue Bombers have the 4-1 edge ATS in their last five games against Saskatchewan. The total has stayed UNDER in each of those five meetings. The Roughriders have won 17 of their last 21 home games against Winnipeg SU.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 23

Sunday, November 17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EDMONTON (9 - 10) at HAMILTON (15 - 3) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in games played on turf this season.
EDMONTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HAMILTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games this season.
HAMILTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
HAMILTON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
HAMILTON is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 5-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 4-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (12 - 7) at SASKATCHEWAN (13 - 5) - 11/17/2019, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
WINNIPEG is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
WINNIPEG is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
WINNIPEG is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus division opponents this season.
WINNIPEG is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a division game this season.
WINNIPEG is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf this season.
WINNIPEG is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 6-4 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-5 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 23

Trend Report

Sunday, November 17

Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Hamilton is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Hamilton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Hamilton is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Hamilton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hamilton's last 9 games at home
Hamilton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Hamilton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Hamilton is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hamilton's last 8 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Edmonton Eskimos
Edmonton is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Edmonton is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Edmonton is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Edmonton's last 15 games on the road
Edmonton is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Hamilton
Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing Hamilton
Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Edmonton's last 8 games when playing on the road against Hamilton

Saskatchewan Roughriders
Saskatchewan is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Saskatchewan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Saskatchewan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Saskatchewan's last 10 games at home
Saskatchewan is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Saskatchewan is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Saskatchewan's last 12 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
Winnipeg is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Winnipeg is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
Winnipeg is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Winnipeg's last 12 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 23


Sunday, November 17

Edmonton @ Hamilton

Game 891-892
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
110.772
Hamilton
120.797
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hamilton
by 10
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Hamilton
by 5 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Hamilton
(-5 1/2); Under

Winnipeg @ Saskatchewan

Game 893-894
November 17, 2019 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
117.137
Saskatchewan
123.216
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Saskatchewan
by 6
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Saskatchewan
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Saskatchewan
(-3); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Division Finals preview, odds, picks & predictions: Bet on defensive battle out West
Rohit Ponnaiya

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Saskatchewan Roughriders meet up in the CFL Western Division Final on Sunday with the total set at just 44.

It's the division finals in the CFL and after both underdogs won on the moneyline last week we take a look at two more possible upsets in the making.

Hamilton currently have the best odds to win the Grey Cup and they are 6-point favorites at home against the Edmonton Eskimos. Out west the Saskatchewan Roughriders host the rival Winnipeg Blue Bombers for the right to move on to the Grey Cup.

We break down the odds with analysis and predictions for both CFL playoff games this weekend.

Season Betting Trends

Favorites: 62-21 SU, 38-43-2 ATS
Home teams: 50-33 SU, 40-41-2 ATS
Over/Under: 39-43-1

CFL Division Semifinal Picks: 1-1
Season to date: 40-37-2

EDMONTON ESKIMOS AT HAMILTON TIGER-CATS (-6, 51.5)

Edmonton upset the Alouettes last week thanks to an incredible performance from quarterback Trevor Harris who completed 36 of 39 passes for 421 yards. While the Esks are a much better team with Harris at the helm, he'll have a harder time making his usual quick throws with the Tiger-Cats pass rush in his face. Hamilton racked up 54 sacks during the regular season and held opposing QBs to a league-low 61.9 completion percentage.

The Eskimos also have a terrific pass rush but it did little to slow down the Ti-Cats offense during the regular season. Hamilton rolled up 455 yards and 42 points against the Esks in Week 17, and 417 yards and 30 points two weeks earlier in Edmonton.

The Eskimos have struggled against quality opponents all year going 1-8-1 ATS against teams with a winning record while the Ti-Cats finished the season with a 6-1 ATS mark over their last seven games. The one game they failed to cover? The final game of the season which didn't matter in the least and where they rested most of their starters including QB Dane Evans.

Edmonton had an average scoring margin of plus-0.3 points per game during the regular season, while Hamilton had an average scoring margin of plus-11.5 ppg. Take the Ti-Cats to win and cover.

PICK: Hamilton -6


WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS AT SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS (-3, 45)

The Riders are currently at +250 to win the Grey Cup which is wild when you consider they started the season 1-3 with their only win coming against the godawful Argonauts. Since then they've gone 12-2 including 7-0 at home. Saskatchewan quarterback Cody Fajardo has emerged as a Most Outstanding Player finalist after beginning the year as a backup to...drumroll please...current Bombers signal-caller Zach Collaros.

These teams have played three games since September. Saskatchewan won both games in Regina by an average score of 20-11.5, while the Bombers routed the Riders 35-10 in Winnipeg. The Riders have one of the best front sevens in the league and allowed just 18.6 ppg at home this season.

Winnipeg's stop-unit went through an ugly spell towards the end of the year but played with a vengeance against Calgary in the semifinal, absolutely destroying last year's MOP in Bo Levi Mitchell. The Bombers run defense is the best in the CFL while their pass defense had the second-most interceptions in the league and held opposing QBs to the second-lowest completion percentage. Bet the Under.

PICK: Under 44.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRANDON LEE
NFL | Nov 24, 2019
Giants vs. Bears

10* FREE NFL PICK (Bears -6)

I'll take my chances here with Chicago laying less than a touchdown at home against the Giants. Most would consider me crazy for backing a Bears team that has let me down week after week, but I'm willing to give them one more shot. I think the Giants defense is bad enough that a struggling Bears offense can finally put up some decent offensive numbers. At the same time, the Bears still have an elite defense and we have seen New York's offense cool off considerably over the last month.

Chicago is 25-12 ATS in their last 37 at home after losing 5/6 of their last 7. We also see that favorites who have failed to cover 4 of their last 5 like the Bears are 104-64 (62%) ATS after the first month of the season over the last 10 seasons. Give me Chicago -6!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WILL ROGERS
NFL | Nov 24, 2019
Seahawks vs. Eagles
Seahawks+2

The set-up: Seattle has won three in a row, including two straight in OT. The Hawks got the job done vs. the 49ers before their bye week and now they come out refreshed with a new challenge. And that's to put the final nail in the coffin of the Eagles' playoff hopes. The Eagles looked poor in their 17-10 loss to the Patriots last weekend. Yes the Eagles are "desperate," but I don't think that's going to matter this weekend. Seattle is rested and it now needs to keep pace with the 49ers after their come from behind win over the Cardinals last Sunday.

The pick: Note as well that the Hawks are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 as a road dog, while the Eagles are a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a non-conference contest. Philly' QB Carson Wentz looks brutal this season and while it's not entirely his fault, I have a hard time seeing this Eagles' offense suddenly "flipping a switch" and resolving all of their issues in a week. Seattle on the other hand has had an entire week off to game-plan and while I do think the outright win is obviously not out of the question, why not grab the points just in case?!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOHN MARTIN
NFL | Nov 24, 2019
Raiders vs. Jets

1 Unit FREE PLAY on New York Jets +3

The New York Jets are looking to finish the season strong. They have won their last two games in upset fashion over the Giants 34-27 and the Redskins 34-17. They racked up 410 yards on the Redskins last week and Sam Darnold and the offense are playing well. The Raiders are coming off three straight narrow home wins by one score. Now they have to travel out East for a cold weather game that they won’t enjoy. It’s also an early start time so 10:00 AM body clock for Raiders players. Oakland is 1-9 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons. The Raiders are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win. The home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Give me the Jets.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES
NFL | Nov 24, 2019
Jaguars vs. Titans

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Jaguars/Titans OVER 41.5

The Tennessee Titans have been great offensively since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. He is completing 71.3% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. Teams can no longer stack the box to stop Derrick Henry, and it showed against the Chiefs as the Titans won 35-32 behind 225 rushing yards, including 188 from Henry.

The Jaguars have a leaky defense and have given up 26 points to the Texans and 33 points to the Colts the last two weeks. The main culprit has been their run defense, which surrendered 216 yards to the Texans and 264 more yards to the Colts. The Titans should be able to do whatever they want offensively on this suspect Jacksonville defense.

I expect the Jaguars to be much sharper offensively this week in the second start back for Nick Foles. He actually threw the ball well against the Colts, but it didn’t result in many points. Foles was 33-of-47 for 296 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the loss. I simply think this is a case of both offenses being better now than their season-long stats suggest, and thus we are getting a lower total than we should be getting here.

The OVER is 40-21 in Tennessee’s last 61 home games with a total of 38.5 to 42 points. The OVER is 7-0 in Titans last seven home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher. The OVER is 4-0 in Titans last four games overall with combined scores of 43, 50, 50 and 67 points. The OVER is 5-2-1 in the last seven meetings in Tennessee. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Nov 24, 2019
Steelers vs. Bengals
Bengals+6½

Play - Cincinnati Bengals (Game 256).

Edges - Bengals: 5-0 ATS versus .500-plus opponents coming off a Thursday game, and 5-0 ATS off a non-division game versus foes off a division game … Steelers: 6-10-1 ATS as a road favorite coming off a division game. We recommend a 1* play on Cincinnati. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Weston

The Washington Redskins are pathetic, and I truly don't understand how the Detroit Lions are laying just 3 1/2 points. I'll buy the half point down and lay just a field goal, of course, but the Lions should win by 10.

Washington just gave up 400 yards and 34 points Sunday to the New York Jets, who entered with the league’s worst offense. Washington’s defense is allowing opponents to convert on 49.28 percent of third downs - the worst rate in the league.

I would talk about the Lions, but this pick is more so against the Redskins, who have shown no consistency or promise on either side of the ball. They can't protect rookie Dwayne Haskins, who was sacked six times by the Jets. They can't stop anybody, see the stat above. Their special teams is anything but special.

Detroit is in after a valiant effort against the Dallas Cowboys, but couldn't come through with an upset. Detroit has now lost six of its last seven games, and this is a perfect opportunity for the Lions to get a critical win.

Jeff Driskel threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys, and finished with a passer rating of 109.3 for the game. He also ran for 51 yards on eight carries. Overall, the Lions have the eighth-best offense in football, with 379.9 yards per game.

Look for Detroit to have its way with the Redskins and win this by double digits.

3* LIONS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE PREZ

Event: (265) Detroit Lions at (266) Washington Redskins
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 24, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Detroit Lions -3.5 (-105)

NFL Preview and Free Pick: Skins vs Lions

The Detroit Lions play the role of the visitor on Sunday in an NFC matchup against the Washington Redskins. The kickoff is slated for 1pm ET at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. Both teams have question marks at quarterback. The Lions have yet to announce the timetable for the return of quarterback Matthew Stafford. Redskins first-round pick Dwayne Haskins has been given the keys to the Washington offense but his spot on the depth chart is constantly in question.

Detroit Lions (-3.5, 41)

Backup Jeff Driskel and his Lions' teammates didn't do enough to earn the victory on Sunday but competed to the end in a 35-27 loss to Dallas. Driskel threw a pair of touchdowns and recorded 209 yards through the air. Detroit has a trio of capable receivers in Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr., and Danny Amendola. And newly promoted running back Bo Scarbrough rushed for 55 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.

The defense has been the Lions Achilles this season. The unit ranks 30th overall in total yards allowed (413 yards) and have surrendered nearly 300 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Washington Redskins (+3.5, 41)

The Redskins have fired their head coach and traded salary with the obvious aim of building for the future. Washington lost 34-17 to the New York Jets this past Sunday. Haskins threw a pair of garbage time fourth-quarter touchdown passes. Running back Derrius Guice, active for the first time since Week 1, caught a 45-yard scoring touchdown and rushed for 24 yards via the ground. The Skins don't have a stretch-receiver and are led by rookie Terry McLaurin who has only 35 receptions and five TD's on the season.

Defensively this Skins team has had their moments this season. But the unit is allowing over 130 yards rushing per game and hemorrhaging third-down conversions.

Free Pick

Haskins isn’t comfortable in the pocket the skill-set he is surrounded with doesn't give him and the offense the best chance to be successful. Washington hasn’t scored more than 17 points in eight consecutive games.

Stafford did not practice Thursday and is expected to be inactive for Sunday's contest in Washington. And as porous as the Lions defense has been this season the Redskins are offensively challenged giving Detroit an opportunity to add to their league-low three interceptions and be the champions in a Sunday victory.

Free Pick is a play on the Detroit Lions minus the three-and-one-half points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TEDDY COVERS

Event: (255) Pittsburgh Steelers at (256) Cincinnati Bengals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 24, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Total Under 38.5 (-108)

3% Take Pittsburgh – Cincinnati UNDER (#255-256)

Ryan Finley is clearly not the answer for the Bengals at quarterback, playing behind a beat up offensive line with limited skill position talent surrounding him. Cinci has been very content to hand the ball off to Joe Mixon again and again, shortening the game. Facing an elite Steelers defense on a chilly late November afternoon, there’s little reason to think that the Bengals offense is suddenly going to come to life; an offense that’s scored more than twenty points exactly once this season.

But the Steelers can’t be trusted to light up the scoreboard either! Mason Rudolph has been nothing short of awful on the highway, with Pittsburgh scoring on just 18% of their road game possessions – dead last in the NFL. And it’s not like Pittsburgh is gaining chunks of yards on the ground either – a full quarter of their running plays have gained zero or negative yardage, #31 in the NFL. Throw in a STRONG Mike Tomlin track record of divisional road games staying Under the total (11-2 to the Under in their last 13 tries) and we can expect another defensive struggle here. Take the Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 12 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

New England went to the effort of listing Tom Brady (elbow) as questionable for Sunday's home game against Dallas. The SuperBook isn't buying it, though, with the Patriots still 6-point favorites.

NFL Week 12 will without a doubt include Tom Brady on the field, despite a late-week head fake from the Patriots. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Among a lengthy Patriots injury list out Friday was Tom Brady’s name, noting the star quarterback was questionable with an elbow issue. New England dipped from -6.5 to -6 for its clash with visiting Dallas, but Osterman said that wasn’t due to Brady’s status. “The Patriots like to list a lot of guys questionable. We fully expect Brady to play.”

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Mike Tomlin’s troops face a skill-position shortage, as wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and running back James Conner (shoulder) will sit out at Cincinnati. “Those were both expected, but once it became 100 percent known, the line dropped a half-point.” The Steelers are still -6.5 (-120) against the winless Bengals.

CLEVELAND BROWNS: Along with the suspensions of Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi for their roles in last week’s brawl against Pittsburgh, fellow defensive lineman Olivier Vernon (knee) is also out against visiting Miami. But Osterman said that didn’t impact the line, which has been at Browns -10.5 almost all week.

ATLANTA FALCONS: Devonta Freeman (foot) won’t play at home against Tampa Bay, but it’s another instance of an expected absence and had no impact on the line. Atlanta is laying 3.5.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Tight end George Kittle (knee/ankle) missed the last two games and is questionable Sunday against visiting Green Bay. If Kittle plays, “It’s maybe a 10-cent move. We would go from -3.5 (even) to -3.5 (-110).” However, wideouts Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) are also questionable. “If more than one of those three is out, I could see a half-point move.”

DETROIT LIONS: QB Matthew Stafford (hip/back) will miss his third straight game, but Jeff Driskel starting was baked into the cake from the moment the Lions were posted -3.5 at Washington. The SuperBook briefly went to -3, but has been at -3.5 since Monday morning.

Weather Watch

OAKLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: Pretty much every game in the Northeast on Sunday is looking at rain. In this instance, there’s a 100 percent chance of precipitation at MetLife Stadium. “The total has come down 1.5 points because of the rain forecast.” The total was at 46.5 Friday.

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: Similar story, with a 90 percent chance of rain in Philly, prompting The SuperBook to drop the total from 49 to 48.

DALLAS AT NEW ENGLAND: Again, if it’s in the Northeast, it’s probably going to see rain, with a 100 percent chance of precipitation on Sunday. The total adjusted down 1.5 points to 44.5.

MIAMI AT CLEVELAND: It could be a little tough sledding for the warm-weather Dolphins, with temperatures in the low-40s and winds at 15 mph, but that’s not swaying oddsmakers. “No effect from the weather.” Rather, the total is up 1 point to 45.5 due to public money on the Over.

DETROIT AT WASHINGTON: This game might dodge the downpours expected throughout the Northeast, but some pregame rain could hit FedEx Field. “I would expect a small move if the field is affected, but most likely no move.”

Pros vs. Joes

DENVER AT BUFFALO: After covering at Minnesota last week, the Broncos are again drawing sharp action. “Pros on the Broncos, public on the Bills.” Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite.

OAKLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: The aforementioned weather could help keep this game tight, with the Raiders laying 3. Sharp play is on the short home ‘dog, while the public is on Oakland.

GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO: “Pros are on the 49ers, and the public is on the Packers,” Osterman said of the Sunday night game. San Francisco opened -3.5, reached -4, dipped to -3, then got back to -3.5.

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles opened -2.5, but Seahawks money took the line to Philly -1. “Pros are on the Eagles, and the public is on the Seahawks. The line moved in favor of the public. A lot of ‘Hawks money coming in.”

BALTIMORE AT LOS ANGELES: The Ravens opened -2.5, briefly got to -3.5 Monday, then spent the rest of the week at -3. “The public is all over the Ravens. The pros are on the Rams.”

Reverse Line Moves

DENVER AT BUFFALO: The Bills dropped from -4.5 to -3.5, but they are taking the bulk of the action, with sharp play on Denver driving the number down.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Week 12
Joe Williams

It's Week 12 of the National Football League regular season, as we're rounding the corner and heading for home. This is the final week of bye weeks for teams, and we'll have Thanksgiving next week with three Thursday battles. The Week 12 schedule started off with an AFC South defensive slog, as the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans battle saw the total cash 'under' tickets

What will we see this week, as the books look to bounce back after the public cashed big in Week 11.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 11 7-7 5-9 6-8

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 79-82-1 76-85-1 72-86-4

The totals ended up going 7-7 last week, with the 'under' remaining slightly ahead (82-79-1) for the season. It looked like the 'over' was going to dominate the weekend early on, but the late-game window saw the 'under' go 2-1, with the Sunday night and Monday night games also going well under.

The 'under' went 9-5 in the first half and bettors chasing 'over' tickets came up short as the low side produced an 8-6 mark in the second-half. On the season, here are the overall numbers for both the first-half (76-85-1) and second-half (72-86-4).

Division Bell

In the seven divisional battles in Week 11, the slight edge went to the 'over' - although the highly-anticipated AFC West showdown in Mexico City on Monday night between the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Chargers at Estadio Azteca cashed low. The under is now 29-24 (54.7%) in divisional games this season, which includes this past Thursday's result between the Colts and Texans.

Divisional Game Results Week 11
Cleveland at Pittsburgh Under (41.5) Cleveland 21, Pittsburgh 7
New Orleans at Tampa Bay Over (50.5) New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 17
Atlanta at Carolina Under (49) Atlanta 29, Carolina 3
Jacksonville at Indianapolis Over (42) Indianapolis 33, Jacksonville 13
Buffalo at Miami Over (41.5) Buffalo 37, Miami 20
Arizona at San Francisco Over (44) San Francisco 36, Arizona 26
Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers Under (53) Kansas City 24, L.A. Chargers 17

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 12 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Green Bay at San Francisco (SNF): 44 to 48
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: 54 ½ to 51 ½
Baltimore at L.A. Rams (MNF): 49 to 46 ½
Carolina at New Orleans: 49 to 51 ½
Dallas at New England: 42 to 40
Denver at Buffalo: 38 ½ to 40 ½
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: 38 ½ to 40 ½
Seattle at Philadelphia: 38 ½ to 40 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 12 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Under 87%
Denver at Buffalo: Over 83%
Detroit at Washington: Under 80%
Miami at Cleveland: Over 77%
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Over 75%
N.Y. Giants at Chicago: Under 70%
Oakland at N.Y. Jets: Over 67%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (66 percent) in the Seattle at Philadelphia matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Jacksonville at Tennessee (63 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 12

Week 11 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 4-3 23-28
NFC vs. NFC 1-1 18-17
AFC vs. AFC 0-2 15-14-1
AFC vs. NFC 2-1 24-22

Other Week 12 Action

Denver at Buffalo: The lowest total on the board will feature a little Allen-on-Allen crime. Quarterback Brandon Allen starts for the Broncos, while QB Josh Allen is the man in Buffalo, no relation. The Broncos have hit the 'under' in six of 10 games overall, and 3-2 in five games on the road. They're just 27th in the NFL with 17.2 points per game on offense, while ranking eighth in the NFL with 19.7 points per game allowed. They're averaging just 19.6 PPG on the road in five games, slightly higher than their overall mark. The Bills were the last team to hit an 'over', as the 'under' cashed in their first five. The under is just 3-2 in their past five games, but two of those games were high-scoring offensive performances against the lowly Dolphins. In the other three games against Philly, Washington and Cleveland during that five-game span, the offense is sputtering, averaging just 17.7 PPG.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers blasted the Bengals 27-3 back in Week 4 on Monday Night Football, as the 'under' easily connected in that game. For the Bengals, the 'over' is actually 3-1 in their four home games, although they have scored just 17, 23, 17 and 13. It's their defense which has been trampled at Paul Brown Stadium, yielding 41, 26, 27 and 49. The Steelers have had their issues on the road this season, and the 'under' is actually a perfect 4-0 away from the Steel City. They scored just three points in Week 1 at New England, and seven last time out on Thursday in Cleveland. They'll be without center Maurkice Pouncey due to suspension from that Browns brawl in Week 11, so will that affect the offense? Six of the last eight meetings in this series have gone 'under.'

N.Y. Giants at Chicago: The Giants have struggled offensively with 322.2 total yards per game, ranking 24th, and they're a rather middling 22nd with 20.3 PPG. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 on the road this season for the G-Men, averaging 23.2 PPG, and the Giants have gone over in each of their past three games. Their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, allowing 27 or more point in six consecutive outings. Will that mean Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky finally rolls up big offensive numbers against someone? The 'under' has hit in four straight for Chicago, as they're averaging 14.3 PPG during that four-game span. Their biggest production was a 20-point outburst in a win against the Lions at home, which is where they'll be Sunday. The Bears have posted 25, 16 and 20 in their past three at home, while allowing an average of 22.0 PPG in the past three at Soldier Field.

Oakland at N.Y. Jets: The Raiders rank 23rd in the NFL in total yards allowed at 370.0, and they're a dismal 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed at 264.1. It could be the perfect storm for Jets QB Sam Darnold, who had a career-high four touchdown strikes last week in Washington. In their four road games this season the Raiders have hit the 'over' three times, and they have posted at least 24 points in each of the past three. The defense is surrendering 31.8 PPG in their four games away from home, giving up at least 24 points in each of those games. The Jets have looked like a functional offense in the past two weeks, posting 34 points in each game, two wins. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four, and 5-1 in the past six. In the past four games at home New York is allowing an average of 26.3 PPG.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The Falcons have picked up victories in their past two outings, both divisional games, and it's their surprising defense which has led the mini resurgence. They're averaging 27.5 PPG in the two-game winning streak while the defense has only coughed up just four field goals. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four overall for the Falcons, too, all against NFC opponents. For the Buccaneers, they're seventh in total yards (380.4) per game while posting 27.7 PPG to rank sixth in the NFL. They're allowing 371.8 total yards per game to rank 24th, and they're still dead-last in the NFL with 31.3 PPG. The Bucs have coughed up 27 or more points in eight straight games, and the 'over' has hit in each of those outings, the longest 'over' streak in the league so far this season. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six meetings in this series, and 5-1 in the past six battles in Atlanta, too.

Detroit at Washington: The Lions declared QB Matthew Stafford (back) out for Sunday due to tiny fractures in his lower back, so QB Jeff Driskel makes another start. The offense didn't skip a beat last week in a 35-27 loss against the Cowboys at Ford Field, and they should be able to gain plenty of yards against a Redskins defense allowing 25.3 PPG, ranking 22nd in the NFL. The 'Skins allowed 34 to the Jets last week, and tied for their most points scored (17) since Week 2. It was their first 'over' results, snapping a 6-0 under run. The 'over' is actually 3-2 for the Redskins at home, with the defense yielding 31, 31, 33, 9 (in the mud and rain) and 34. We'll see if the Lions can add to their misery, and the conditions will be clear on Sunday.

Seattle at Philadelphia: The public has been pushing the total down in the Seattle-Philly battle on Sunday. Seattle plays its fourth out of five games in the Eastern Time Zone. The travel hasn't seemed to affect their offense, as they have scored 28, 32 and 27 in their previous three trips east, going 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS. They have allowed 26, 28 and 20 in those games, too. Meanwhile, Philly had hit the 'under' in each of their past three home games after the 'over' cashed in the first two at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles defense has come to play in the past three at home, allowing just 6, 14 and 17, or an average of 12.3 PPG during the span. The Seahawks are listed as underdogs for the fourth time this season, and they're 3-0 SU/ATS in those three games while the 'over' has connected in each of the outings.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: The Jaguars were trampled on the road last week in Indy, falling 33-13 despite the fact they got QB Nick Foles back from injury. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five games against divisional foes for the Jags, but that lone over was last week. These teams met in Week 3 from Jacksonville, a 20-7 win by the Jags. However, there isn't much to glean from that matchup since the starting quarterbacks, Gardner Minshew and Marcus Mariota are now the backups. Since taking over for Mariota, QB Ryan Tannehill has helped the Titans post 23, 27, 20 and 35, hitting the 'over' in all four games. The defense is allowing 26.3 PPG during the span, giving up 20, 23, 30 and 32. The 'over' is 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings in Nashville. The Titans are playing with rest and Mike Vrabel's team posted a 28-14 road win over Dallas last season off the bye, his first situation coaching with a break.

Dallas at New England: The Cowboys hit the road for Foxboro, and it's a big measuring stick game. Dallas is No. 1 in total offensive yards per game (444.6), passing yards per game (312.7) and fourth in points scored (28.6). As such, the over is 3-0 in the past three, and 5-1 in the past six games overall for the Cowboys. The Patriots defense ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed (249.9) and points allowed (10.8). In their lone loss in Baltimore, they allowed 37 points on the road in Week 9. However, at home the Patriots have yielded 3, 14, 14 and 13, with the offense actually allowed 14 of those points on two defensive touchdowns by the Jets. The New England defense has really allowed just 7.5 PPG in four home games, so the Cowboys have their hands full. In three games against the NFC East, New England is allowing 10.3 PPG, hitting the 'under' in two of those outings.

Heavy Expectations

There are two games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 12, with the home team listed as favorites in each of them. The totals range from 46 to 46 ½ and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Miami at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. ET): The Thursday Night system is just 6-4 (60%) so far. The team playing at home in the previous 10 TNF games has hit the 'over' in six over in their next game. The Browns were the home in 'Helmetgate', or whatever you want to call it, so they're next up to keep the TNF system going. The Dolphins find themselves in a familiar spot this season, a double-digit underdog. It's the seventh time they're an underdog of 10 or more points, and the 'under' is 5-1 in those six games. And after a 2-1 'over' start at FirstEnergy Stadium in the first three, the Browns have hit the 'under' in each of the past two.

Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET): The honeymoon is over with QB Kyle Allen...or it's actually not 'over', but 'under'. The Panthers offense is averaging just 9.5 PPG over the past two, and they have 13, 30, 16 and 3 across their 1-3 SU/ATS run in the past four games, hitting the under three times during the span. The Saints bounced back with 34 points in Tampa last week, hitting the 'over' for the second time in three NFC South games. The Saints defense ranks sixth in total yards allowed (318.3) and third in rushing yards allowed (85.3), while allowing 19.9 PPG to rank 12th in the NFL. At home, the 'under' is 3-2 in five games in the Superdome. As a double-digit favorite, the Saints have hit the 'under' in both outings. Make a note that Allen's first career start came at New Orleans last season in Week 17 and the Panthers captured a 33-14 road win.

Under the Lights

Green Bay at San Francisco (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Packers hit the road for Levi's Stadium, and the Pack hope their trip to the West Coast goes better than their last visit. They fell 26-11 in Week 10 againts the Chargers, and it would have been a season low had they not scored a late touchdown with a two-point conversion. It's a rarity that the Packers are underdogs. They're 2-0 SU/ATS in those two previous outings this season, with the over/under splitting 1-1. For the 49ers, they're allowing 20, 3, 13, 27 and 26 at home, with the 'over' going 3-0 in the past three at home, and 4-0 in the past four overall. The defense has allowed 25 or more points in three straight, showing some chinks in the armor.

Baltimore at L.A. Rams (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Rams offense has struggled, posting a rather middling 366.5 total yards per game on offense to rank 13th, and they're 11th with 24.3 PPG scored. Defensively, they rank fifth in the NFL with just 89.1 rushing yards per game allowed, but it's a whole other animal trying to shut down QB Lamar Jackson. The Rams are underdogs for just the second time this season, and the 'over' cashed in that only previous outing. Los Angeles has had a power outage on offense lately, posting just 12 and 17 in the past two against the Steelers and Bears, whole allowing just 11 PPG across the past four. The 'under' has hit in five in a row for Los Angeles.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gridiron Angles - Week 12
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 11-0 ATS (14.09 ppg) since Sep 24, 2017 after a game in which they had zero turnovers.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-11.95 ppg) since Dec 08, 2016 on the road coming off a win.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Packers are 7-0 ATS (8.07 ppg) since Jan 15, 2017 coming off a home game where Davante Adams had at least a 30 yard reception.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Broncos are 11-0-1 OU (11.88 ppg) since Dec 28, 2008 as a road dog after a game in which they scored more field goals than touchdowns.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Giants are 0-10 OU (-13.35 ppg) since Sep 20, 2012 off a game as a favorite that went over the total by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Bears are 0-18 OU (-9.92 ppg) vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a double-digit loss as a dog in which they scored ten-plus points fewer than their seasonto-date average and had less than 34 minutes of possession time.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SNF - Packers at 49ers
Matt Blunt

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

It was nice to get back in the win column with the L.A. Rams covering the number against Chicago last Sunday night. It wasn't the prettiest of games by any means as neither offense really did much of anything in the 17-7 final, but ATS wins are ATS wins no matter how you get them.

This week the SNF team gets a potential NFC Championship preview-type game with Green Bay in San Francisco to take on the 49ers. You've got QB Aaron Rodgers back in his home state of California, and two teams who could end up with home field advantage through the playoffs based on winning this game.

With the stakes surrounding this game, there will likely be no shortage of opinions (or action) as the week goes on for such a big game, as both teams are likely to use it as a nice measuring stick type game for them as we head to December. But the question really is, can Green Bay go into San Francisco and knock off this 49ers team that's been spectacular at home.

San Fran owns a +77 point differential at home, largely in part to their 2nd ranked defense this year in both opponent yards allowed per game and opponent yards allowed per play. That's what Aaron Rodgers and company have to contend with, and given that the last time Green Bay was in California – two weeks ago vs LA Chargers – it was an utter debacle offensively, will history repeat? I mean, SF has highly talented pass rushers too and that was what led the Chargers to such much success that day.

Total Talk

After opening up at 45.5 late on Sunday, this total has really seen nothing but 'over' support since then. As of this writing, it's currently sitting at 47.5 juiced to the 'over', and given the profile of these two teams, it's easy to want to trust both offenses. Both teams currently sit in the Top 10 in the league – SF (2nd) and GB (9th) – in points per game with 29.5 and 25 respectively, that the opening total here was probably a touch too low. But all the value from that number has long been extracted, and the number has held pretty steady at 47.5 since Wednesday morning.

At 47.5, the number does appear to be about where it should be. Yes, the combined average point totals for these two teams puts this game close to 55 total points scored, but I would expect both sides to be looking to be strong defensively from the get-go. The stakes of the game lend themselves to that notion, as even though both teams would likely say they are fine with getting in a 34-31 type game, they wouldn't prefer it.

San Francisco's 4-0 O/U run coming into this game would suggest that 'over' is the way to look, especially with the defense allowing 25+ in three straight games. But the Packers come in off of two straight 'unders' themselves where the total score didn't eclipse 40 points can't be dismissed either. Put the entire situation of this game together, and passing on this total now appears to be the best course of action.

Side Spiel

San Francisco has been installed as the generic -3 home favorite for this game and that's where the number has stayed all week. The price has fluctuated on the 49ers, but I wouldn't expect this number to move much. That's because at -2.5 you are likely to see plenty of SF money hit the board, while at +3.5 there would likely be Green Bay money flooding in. Just another example of how important it is to bet numbers and bet teams. Yet, to me, this is a line that's much better to be approached from a spot betting perspective, and that spot does favor the Packers.

Actually, it's more of a spot that's against the 49ers in that fading a team after three straight division games is something that makes a lot of sense. Generally speaking, teams are going to naturally have a 'let down' after nearly a month of intense divisional action, but given that it is 8-2 SU Green Bay on the other side of the field, a complete flat effort from the 49ers isn't likely. But even just a bit flat early could have San Francisco chasing this game the entire way, and if that's the case, I'm not sure the 49ers will last.

This is essentially the fourth straight game where high stress/pressure are involved for the 49ers, and eventually every team needs a mental rest spot. There was the closer then expected game at Arizona on Halloween, followed by the OT loss to Seattle, and then last week's wild comeback against that same Cardinals team, with road games at Baltimore and at New Orleans on tap for the 49ers, there is going to be one of those 'dud' games for them in one of those three in my opinion, and teams do tend to be more complacent about things when at home. Whether it's physical or the mental prep side of things for the 49ers, that's not good for a team that's already spent the past three weeks struggling to hold on (or claim) outright victories.

At the same time, you know Rodgers would love to come 'home' to the Bay area and light up a 9-1 49ers team. San Francisco is part of the “new guard” in 2019 as it's their first time winning games in a few years, whereas the Packers have been perennial contenders the entire Rodgers era. This win probably means a bit more to Rodgers and company who want to prove they are just as good as the best, and home field advantage at Lambeau Field in January is always a huge edge.

I would figure that the Packers learned from their mistakes going to L.A. a few weeks ago (late travel time, bad sleep schedules, personal schedules etc) and be much better from the opening kickoff here. Obviously a later start helps that play out, and if they can keep San Fran's pass rushers in check with a serviceable running attack, it's not like Rodgers isn't capable of tearing apart this 49ers secondary.

Final Thoughts

A 0-2-1 ATS record combined with all 'overs' in those games for the 49ers coming into this week is a sign to me that they are a team that's playing with too much fire right now. Defensively they are getting hurt, offensively they are letting teams hang around, and they are just making more mistakes overall right now then they were earlier in the year. It didn't cost them wins in those two games vs Arizona and a rookie head coach/rookie QB combo, but it will probably cost them a win this week vs a rookie head coach/Hall-of-Fame QB.

Green Bay is in just as tight a divisional race themselves as the 49ers are in the NFC West, and given how the perception around the Packers 8-2 SU record still has an aura of being rather 'lucky' – they were gifted calls vs Detroit on MNF, Oakland coughed up what was a close game with GB at half, they caught KC without Mahomes, McCaffrey might have been in the end zone last week etc etc – they've arguably got more to prove with a win here.

I believe the Packers get that win here, and extend their 5-0 ATS run against winning teams to six straight covers.

Best Bet: Green Bay +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

#260 NY Jets
#254 Bills
#268 Titans
#270 Patriots

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Zylbert
W.G.Ramirez

#254 Bills
#257 Giants
#259 Raiders
#262 Saints
#264 Falcons
#265 Lions

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chip Chirimbes

Oakland at New York Jets 1:00 ET

Jets (+) over Raiders- Oakland back in the thick of it after three straight wins over teams with a combined 7-23-1 record. Meanwhile the Jets are also flying high after having won two-in-a-row defeating the Giants and Redskins (combined 3-wins). Listne Oakland doesn't get a chance to get to New York very often...it makes you pay a price. The home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings...take the J-E-T-S and become a winner

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MATT JOSEPHS
NFL | Nov 24, 2019
Seahawks vs. Eagles
Seahawks+1½

The Eagles are a banged up and desperate bunch as they host a rested Seahawks team. Lane Johnson and Jordan Howard are out while Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor are banged up. This means that Andre Dillard is going to be playing right tackle which is not his natural position. Philly probably should have beaten the Patriots last week, but the offense sputtered and Carson Wentz overthrew open receivers. The defense is much improved especially in the secondary as they've held four straight teams to less then 225 yards through the air. Seattle has won three straight and six of their last seven. They've won games on the road and don't mind the early body clock time on the east coast. I do not like the Seahawks defense, but I don't know if Philly can take advantage of it. Russell Wilson has had a ton of success against Jim Schwartz in his career. Give me the better team plus the point on the road here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Sunday, November 24 is:

Dallas Cowboys +6 over New England Patriots

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS
(NFL)
Bears
Eagles
Cowboys
49ers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB VALENTINO

Talk about the light switch going on, the Atlanta Falcons came out of their bye-week on November 10th and went into New Orleans as the near 2 touchdown underdogs and held the Saints without an offensive touchdown in their 26-9 upset win. They followed that win up with another underdog upset, as Dan Quinn's team went to division-rival Carolina and bested the Panthers 29-3 as the +4 point underdogs.

Look for the Falcons to keep their run going today back at home when they entertain another division-rival, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa just lost for the 5th time in their last 6 games last Sunday when they were doubled-up at home by the Saints, 34-17. Jameis Winston continues to turn the football over, as J-Boo is up to 13 interceptions over his last 5 games and he has also been sacked 16 times. With the Falcons defense all of the sudden looking like the 1985 Bears defense - 13 quarterback sacks over their last 3 games, look for the Bucs to be behind early in this divisional meeting.

Atlanta swept last season's pair of meetings, as they have recorded wins now in the last 5 series meetings versus Tampa Bay, and they have covered in the last pair of meetings at home versus the Buccaneers.

The Falcons have been mathematically eliminated from any postseason conversation, but the conversation now in Atlanta centers on whether or not 5th year coach Dan Quinn can save his job come the end of the regular season. His team sure seems intent on rallying around their leader.

With Matt Ryan back in-sync, look for Matty Ice to pick apart the weak Bucs secondary.

Falcons make it 3-for-3 since their bye with another division win and cover.

5* ATLANTA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STEPHEN DeANGELO

For Sunday’s NFL freebie, let’s head to Foxborough and play the defending-champion Patriots in their marquee matchup against the Cowboys.



Bill Belichick (at home, no less!) vs. Jason Garrett. Need I say more?!?



OK, OK, I will. The Patriots are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS. The closest of those nine wins was a 16-10 victory at Buffalo. In four home games, New England has piled up 125 points and allowed 44 (and 14 of those 44 came on a punt return and a pick-6 thrown by a rookie backup QB, both against the Jets).



Yeah, I know the Pats schedule has been softer than a container of unfrozen ice cream (for instance, those four home wins were against the Steelers, Jets, Giants and Browns). But who the hell have the Cowboys beat? I’ll tell you: the Giants, Dolphins and Eagles at home and the Redskins, Giants and Matthew Stafford-less Lions on the road.



Now take a look at Dallas’ four losses: Saints (with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback), Packers, Vikings and, yes, the Jets. But don’t the Cowboys have the NFL’s top-rated offense? Indeed they do. But the Patriots have the NFL’s best defense (and the boss of that defense is arguably the best to ever coach that side of the ball). You don’t think Belichick will have some tricks up his sleeve for Dak Prescott, who has thrown as many interceptions (five) as TD passes in his team’s four losses?



As for Prescott’s counterpart, Tom Brady, yeah, it’s been a rough few weeks for the old man who is finally starting to look his age. But one thing we’ve learned about Brady over the past 20 years is every time people count him out, he rises to the occasion and defies the odds. And backed by a swarming defense that will be all over Prescott for four quarters, Brady will control the clock (as he often does) and produce enough points to deliver his team’s eighth double-digit win of the season (and its 21st cover in its last 29 games as a home favorite).

5* NEW ENGLAND

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MITCHELL NEWMAN

Sunday comp play on Seattle as they pay a visit to Lincoln Financial Field for this early afternoon game against the Eagles.

Philadelphia came out of their bye-week last Sunday and took it on the chin at home against the New England Patriots in a game they led 10-0 and wound up allowing 17 unanswered points in a hurtful 17-10 final.

Now Doug Pederson's team has the pleasure of welcoming in Pete Carroll and his 8-2 Seattle Seahawks who are refreshed and recharged after enjoying their bye-week last Sunday.

The Seahawks only 2 losses have come on their home field to New Orleans and Baltimore - 2 teams that will be playing postseason football in January. Seattle has won all 5 of their road games this season while covering in 4 of those 5 away victories.

Russell Wilson is in the conversation for MVP of the league, as he enters this game with a whopping 23 touchdown passes against just 2 interceptions. I know they are not a significant underdog, but when getting points the Seahawks are 10-1-1 their last 12 tries.

The Eagles have been a bit of a disappointment at just 5-5 on the year, and they are just 2-3 against the spread this season when listed as the favorite. Last season the Philly Birds logged a 2-5-1 mark when laying points at home, and enter today at 4-7-1 when laying any lumber in their home stadium.

Carson Wentz has not had his full compliment of weapons this year due to multiple offensive injuries, and that will be the case once again today.

A loss would really cripple the Eagles postseason chances, and while they are at home, I simply do not trust them to deliver with the chips on the table.

Take Seattle.

4* SEATTLE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SYNERGY

Event: (263) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (264) Atlanta Falcons
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 24, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5.0 (-110)

Tampa +5 holds value on our database and looks like it will likely become a official release to clients.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MARCO D'ANGELO

Event: (253) Denver Broncos at (254) Buffalo Bills
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 24, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Buffalo Bills -3.5 (-108)

BUFFALO -3.5



Don’t over react to Denver’s performance last week as they were coming off their bye week and they had two weeks to produce a game plan for Minnesota. Denver stormed out to a 20-0 lead before Minnesota woke up at halftime and roared back for a 27-23 win. It must be noted that Minnesota was coming off a huge Sunday Night win against Dallas the week before and then came home to play the 3-7 Broncos with their bye week the following week. Plain and simple Minnesota thought they could just show up and win and honestly they played the first half of the game like people working on a Friday when they are on vacation the next day. They mailed it in last week. Zimmer must of read the riot act at halftime because Minnesota outscored Denver 27-3 in the second half. Brandon Allen only connected on 17 of 39 passing for 240 yards. Minnesota’s defense is the 12th best defense but this week Denver will be facing the #4 defense in the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo will not take Denver for granted after last week scare that they gave Minnesota. BUFFALO 23-13.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Event: (267) Jacksonville Jaguars at (268) Tennessee Titans
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 24, 2019 4PM EST
Play: Total Over 41.5 (-108)

BET SIZE = 1% of bankroll

When you think of this AFC South series, you think lower scoring games. In fact, these two squared off back in Week 3 with the Jags scoring a 20-7 win. The total for that one was 38, so it went WAY under. Yet, the line for this rematch has gone UP 3.5 points. Hmmm...

I think there's good reason for the total being higher this time around. It was Marcus Mariota versus Gardner Minshew in that first meeting. This time, it's Ryan Tannehill versus Nick Foles.

Last week, Foles saw his first action since Week 1, and had a pretty good day (33-of-47, 296 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) despite the lopsided loss. The rust should be removed, and Foles should progress even more against a Titans pass defense that ranks 22nd in the league according to advanced metrics.

The Titans offense has seen a resurgence since Tannehill took over at QB in place of Mariota. Tennessee has averaged 26.2 points in the four games started by Tannehill, as compared to just 16.3 points in the six games started by Mariota. But, the defense has regressed, averaging the same 26.2 points in Tannehill's four starts (allowed only 15.3 ppg in Mariota's starts).

PLAY OVER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Sunday, November 24

Trend Report

Florida Panthers
Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida's last 7 games
Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Florida is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida's last 5 games at home
Florida is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Florida is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Buffalo
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Florida
Buffalo is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Florida
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Florida

Detroit Red Wings
Detroit is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Carolina
Detroit is 18-6-1 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Carolina
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Carolina is 6-18-1 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit

Arizona Coyotes
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games at home
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Edmonton
Arizona is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Edmonton
Arizona is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Edmonton Oilers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 7 games
Edmonton is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Edmonton is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Edmonton's last 12 games on the road
Edmonton is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Edmonton is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Edmonton is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise



Turf Paradise - Race 8

$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta



Claiming $4,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 4:13P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 24 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $3,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY). ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * FLAT OUT FINE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. WR IGHT WINGED: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SHAHALIE SHARI: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. CALIFORNIA APPEAL: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.



3

FLAT OUT FINE

7/2


6/1




10

HEAVENLY HOLIDAY

20/1


7/1




4

WRIGHT WINGED

5/2


7/1




8

SHAHALIE SHARI

8/1


8/1




6

CALIFORNIA APPEAL

3/1


8/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




9

TATTOOED KITTY

9


8/1

Front-runner

74


71


74.0


59.2


52.2




6

CALIFORNIA APPEAL

6


3/1

Front-runner

71


75


73.2


64.2


51.7




1

BIG WAVE BETTY

1


30/1

Front-runner

68


54


72.5


48.0


29.5




5

MONACO GIRL

5


4/1

Front-runner

73


67


63.6


65.0


52.0




4

WRIGHT WINGED

4


5/2

Alternator/Front-runner

74


74


66.0


64.2


55.2




8

SHAHALIE SHARI

8


8/1

Stalker

79


77


67.6


64.2


56.7




3

FLAT OUT FINE

3


7/2

Trailer

71


72


57.0


66.8


58.3




10

HEAVENLY HOLIDAY

10


20/1

Trailer

75


71


49.2


64.0


58.5




2

LADY FREEDOM

2


30/1

Alternator/Non-contender

71


67


54.2


49.4


34.4




7

EDGY REDHEAD

7


20/1

Alternator/Non-contender

85


77


51.4


50.0


39.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park



Mountaineer Park - Race 8

First Half $2 Late Daily Double (Races 8-9) $.50 Trifecta $1 Exacta Box ($.20) Superfecta



Optional Claiming $15,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $17,800 • Post: 9:34P


FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 24 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES)(W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).





Contenders


Race Analysis




P#

Horse

Morn
Line


Accept
Odds





Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * PRIME LIME: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layof f. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SPICE IT UP: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MUSAB AQA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. I'M SO MUNNY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks i n the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.



6

PRIME LIME

7/5


4/1




1

SPICE IT UP

3/1


6/1




2

MUSABAQA

5/2


7/1




4

I'M SO MUNNY

6/1


9/1
























P#


Horse (In Running Style Order)


Post


Morn
Line


Running Style


Good
Class


Good
Speed


Early Figure


Finish Figure


Platinum
Figure




6

PRIME LIME

6


7/5

Front-runner

81


81


94.6


71.6


67.6




4

I'M SO MUNNY

4


6/1

Front-runner

83


63


84.6


68.2


60.7




2

MUSABAQA

2


5/2

Stalker

85


83


78.2


72.4


67.9




1

SPICE IT UP

1


3/1

Alternator/Stalker

86


82


50.6


73.2


66.7




3

TIA FLOR

3


12/1

Alternator/Non-contender

92


82


81.4


61.2


53.7




5

GLORIOUS RIDE

5


15/1

Alternator/Non-contender

81


78


75.2


66.4


54.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Del Mar

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - SA - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 95

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING ALLOWED 3 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 6 CAMBY 6/1




# 8 GATE SPEED 3/1




# 9 BABY GRONK 9/2




CAMBY is the top wager in this race. He has been racing soundly recently while recording very solid Equibase Speed Figs. Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 95 speed fig recorded in his last outing. I would favor this gelding on the jockey and trainer numbers alone. GATE SPEED - Is a sharp contender based on numbers garnered lately under today's conditions. The Equibase Speed Figure of 94 from his last contest looks quite good in here. BABY GRONK - Has to be given a shot here on the basis of the figures in the speed department alone. Spawr and Pereira have a very good win percentage together.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Trial - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $4000 Class Rating: 98

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT: 124 LBS.




RECOMMENDED CHOICES



https://www.trackmaster.com/images/wg.gif


# 1 CHOCOLATE DIVINITY 6/1




# 7 BUDDERLICOUS 7/5




# 3 YOU CAN RUN 5/2




CHOCOLATE DIVINITY has a solid shot to take this race. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. Gonzalez has this filly racing well and is a very good pick based on the very good Equibase Speed Figs put up in short races as of late. The speed figure of 83 from her most recent affair looks very good in here. BUDDERLICOUS - Odell has this gelding racing well and is a formidable selection based on the respectable Equibase Speed Figures posted in short races lately. Boasts sound Speed Figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. YOU CAN RUN - This gelding with Ayala in the irons makes him a solid contender. Will probably compete quite well in the early pace clash which bodes well with this group of horses in this race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park West



11/24/19, GPW, Race 3, 1.32 ET
5F [Turf] 00.54.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $22,000.
Claiming Price $20,000. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD
$1 Daily Double / $2 Quiniela / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $.50 Bet 3 (Races 3-4-5) / $1 Super Hi 5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
9
Youreoutofcontrol
3-1
Torres C A
Zerpa Gilberto
T


099.1575
6
Chaos Kid
7/2
Camacho S
Connelly Teresa
SE


097.8448
7
Lunag Ri(b-)
6-1
Lopez P
Foley Thomas D.
J


097.6097
5
Congrats That
4-1
Maragh R
Yates Michael




097.3354
10
Fastdriven(b-)
8-1
Batista J A
Minguet Ramon
L


096.1403
12
Maspero(b-)
8-1
Lopez C C
Laurato Michael V.
F


095.3762
3
Capitan Fofo
10-1
Gonzalez S
Sano Antonio
W


095.0039
4
City Cat
20-1
Maragh T
Maragh Aubrey A.




094.4357
8
Last Jet Out
12-1
Alvarez J L
Collazo Henry




093.9851
1
More Level
12-1
Henry W
Mejia Jaime




093.6324
2
Purecrazidude(b-)
20-1
Jaramillo E
Antonucci Jena M.




089.4005
11
One Crazy Ride
30-1
Tunon J
Shannon Jennifer
C


After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by race type and exclusive to GPW.


Pgm#
Profit
HiWin$
ROI
Win%
Wins
Races
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


7
10.60
6.60
1.76
71.43
5
7
Blinkers Off From On


10
10.60
6.60
1.76
71.43
5
7
Blinkers Off From On


12
10.60
6.60
1.76
71.43
5
7
Blinkers Off From On


3
2.60
5.00
1.26
60.00
3
5
Last Race Weight Is Greater Than Today


4
2.60
5.00
1.26
60.00
3
5
Last Race Weight Is Greater Than Today


2
10.60
6.60
1.76
71.43
5
7
Blinkers Off From On


11
.20
4.20
1.05
50.00
1
2
*Actual Post Greater Than 9 And Distance 5f or 5 1/2f


* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.
If Race Is Off Turf Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
6
Chaos Kid
7/2
Camacho S
Connelly Teresa
SE


099.3984
9
Youreoutofcontrol
3-1
Torres C A
Zerpa Gilberto
T


096.3904
7
Lunag Ri(b-)
6-1
Lopez P
Foley Thomas D.
J


096.3904
5
Congrats That
4-1
Maragh R
Yates Michael




095.4323
12
Maspero(b-)
8-1
Lopez C C
Laurato Michael V.
F


094.9643
10
Fastdriven(b-)
8-1
Batista J A
Minguet Ramon
L


094.8084
3
Capitan Fofo
10-1
Gonzalez S
Sano Antonio
W


094.1622
4
City Cat
20-1
Maragh T
Maragh Aubrey A.




094.0731
1
More Level
12-1
Henry W
Mejia Jaime




093.4269
8
Last Jet Out
12-1
Alvarez J L
Collazo Henry




093.2487
2
Purecrazidude(b-)
20-1
Jaramillo E
Antonucci Jena M.




090.1292
11
One Crazy Ride
30-1
Tunon J
Shannon Jennifer
C


After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by race type and exclusive to GPW.


Pgm#
Profit
HiWin$
ROI
Win%
Wins
Races
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


9
19.60
14.20
1.35
46.43
13
28
Carries Apprentice Weight


7
18.20
10.80
1.13
44.12
30
68
Best Jockey


5
3.80
6.00
1.63
66.67
2
3
Last Race Was Different Jockey With A Better Win Percent


12
10.60
6.60
1.76
71.43
5
7
Blinkers Off From On


10
10.60
6.60
1.76
71.43
5
7
Blinkers Off From On


3
25.60
18.40
1.19
41.18
28
68
Best Workouts


4
1.00
8.80
1.06
44.44
4
9
Last Race Weight Is Greater Than Today


2
10.60
6.60
1.76
71.43
5
7
Blinkers Off From On

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Golden Gate Fields - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#6 REY COLIMAN (ML=9/2)
#3 REFRACTOMETER (ML=2/1)


REY COLIMAN - You have to like that last race rating, 82, which is the best recent race figure of this bunch. Faced tougher last out at Golden Gate Fields. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of contenders. This thoroughbred earns a lot of money per start. I believe he will boost that bankroll in this race. REFRACTOMETER - I like to bet on this angle, a horse coming back off a sharp race within the last 30 days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 DECKLOAD (ML=5/2), #1 CARTERS BLUE (ML=6/1), #2 FORT YORK (ML=8/1),

DECKLOAD - Awfully difficult to bet on this questionable contender when he hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness of late. CARTERS BLUE - Not likely that this animal will finish better than he did last time when ending up sixth. FORT YORK - Hard to take this racer at this price after the finish (eighth) in the last event.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 REY COLIMAN is the play if we get odds of 3/2 or better



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,6]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None



SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:

Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs



11/24/19, CD, Race 10, 5.36 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $36,000.
Claiming Price $20,000, For Each $2,000 To $16,000 1 lb. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser


Rating
Pgm#
Horse Name
M/L
Jockey
Trainer
Flags


100.0000
11
Sultry Samurai
5-1
Santana. Jr. R
Asmussen Steven M.
F


098.8885
5
Victory Element
7/2
Lanerie C J
Hartman Chris A.
E


096.8350
9
Town Champ
5-1
Garcia M
D'Amato Philip
S


096.4393
13
Atmos
5-1
Lanerie C J
Romans Dale L.




096.4205
7
Korczak
6-1
Canchari A L
Stall. Jr. Albert M.




095.5916
4
Afleet Roger
15-1
Hernandez. Jr. B J
Baker James E.




095.5162
15
Mjolnir
6-1
Santana. Jr. R
Quartarolo Anthony T.




095.1017
2
Reelfoot
10-1
Gaffalione T
Diodoro Robertino
T


095.0075
10
Mr Abernathy
10-1
De La Cruz F
Miller Darrin




094.9699
1
Dry Lake
5-1
Leparoux J R
Wilkes Ian R.




092.1063
8
Big Island
15-1
Mena M
Londono Genevieve
C


091.7671
14
Superado
15-1
Court J K
Petalino Joseph




090.6368
12
Money On My Mind
12-1
Court J K
Morse Randy L.
W


090.5049
6
Bourbon Bryce
30-1
Burke J
Herrera Arturo F.




089.9774
16
Mr Opportunity
20-1
Diaz C A
Macias Adolfo
L


088.8659
3
Brand New Key
30-1
Aragon R
Roggenkamp III Edward




After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by race type and exclusive to CD.


Pgm#
Profit
HiWin$
ROI
Win%
Wins
Races
Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse


11
44.00
22.80
1.25
34.83
31
89
Not Second Race After 45 Days Off


5
135.40
46.20
1.38
29.05
52
179
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


9
135.40
46.20
1.38
29.05
52
179
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


13
32.00
22.80
1.12
32.59
44
135
No 5f Workouts Since Last Race


7
135.40
46.20
1.38
29.05
52
179
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


4
135.40
46.20
1.38
29.05
52
179
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


15
32.00
22.80
1.12
32.59
44
135
No 5f Workouts Since Last Race


2
135.40
46.20
1.38
29.05
52
179
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


10
32.00
22.80
1.12
32.59
44
135
No 5f Workouts Since Last Race


1
135.40
46.20
1.38
29.05
52
179
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


8
135.40
46.20
1.38
29.05
52
179
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


14
44.00
22.80
1.25
34.83
31
89
Not Second Race After 45 Days Off


12
32.00
22.80
1.12
32.59
44
135
No 5f Workouts Since Last Race


6
135.40
46.20
1.38
29.05
52
179
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


16
32.00
22.80
1.12
32.59
44
135
No 5f Workouts Since Last Race


3
135.40
46.20
1.38
29.05
52
179
*Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f


* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts




http://www.trackmaster.com/images/bar.gif

Woodbine - Race #4 - Post: 2:35pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,600 Class Rating: 70

Rating: http://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpghttp://www.trackmaster.com/images/golden.jpg

#2 CHARLIE'S GAME (ML=5/1)
#8 MAXIMUM SENTENCE (ML=4/1)


CHARLIE'S GAME - Taking a trip down the class scale; has the class ability to make his presence felt. MAXIMUM SENTENCE - Finished seventh at Woodbine last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 4/1 right here, he looks like a possible contender. Good winning percent this jockey and handler tandem have been putting together. Look at this pattern of improvement. 48/62/64 are the last three speed figs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 STASH THE CASH (ML=5/2), #12 WALKINAROUNDMONEY (ML=8/1), #4 SECOND ENCORE (ML=8/1),

STASH THE CASH - You always think this horse has a shot to be victorious, but he falls short most every time. Hasn't been winning recently when made the morning-line choice. Take a look at his record. This entrant has no victories at Woodbine. WALKINAROUNDMONEY - Just don't believe he is priced right at the morning line odds. SECOND ENCORE - Last raced on November 17th at Woodbine, finishing seventh. Not likely to move up off of that try in today's event. This gelding registered a rating in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #2 CHARLIE'S GAME to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds



EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [2,8]



TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass



SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None