Service Plays Saturday 7/6/19

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2019, 07:09 AM

Nascar - Coke Zero Sugar 400
VegasInsider - Micah Roberts

Saturday night's Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway's 2.5-mile high banked layout will mark the halfway point in the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series season. It's the third race of the season on the two tracks between Daytona and Talladega formerly known as restrictor-plate races.

However, it's only the second race using this current race package with cars featuring aero ducts, taller spoilers, and engines producing 550 horsepower. Denny Hamlin won the season-opening Daytona 500 but was using last season's package.

When setting up my personal ratings for this week's race that features lots of unknowns because of the package debut at Daytona, I started with what happened in April's Talladega Superspeedway race that saw 37 lead changes among 15 drivers. What stood out the most was Chevrolet appearing to have an edge with the new package as six of the top-eight finishers drove the Camaro, including the first three finishers.

Hendrick Motorsports had a 1-2 finish in the Geico 500 with Chase Elliott winning the first race of the season for Chevrolet and teammate Alex Bowman was runner-up. Bowman stepped up last week in the final half of the Chicagoland race to lead 88 laps and win his first career Cup race.

I gained tons of respect for Bowman in the final seven laps when Kyle Larson reeled him in to erase a 3.4-second lead and eventually make the pass. It looked like the race was over and Larson had the much better long-run car. I thought there was no way Bowman could bounce back, but within two laps there was Bowman trading paint with the rear side panel of Larson's No. 42 and then did a little side-drafting to slow Larson's momentum and make the winning pass to retake the lead with five laps to go. It was big league stuff, but almost as important was that Hendrick Motorsports and Chevrolet got a win on a 1.5-mile track that only two organizations had won on in the first races on those types.

“I'm still pretty speechless," Bowman said of his first win. "I was able to go home and enjoy it even more with my friends and team and we won the race! I am just so thankful for Hendrick Motorsports, Axalta, Nationwide, LLumar, Valvoline and Chevrolet for believing in me. They stuck behind this team and it means so much. I am extremely thankful for this opportunity with this No. 88 team and Greg Ives. Greg is a great crew chief and I am so happy to get my first win with him.”

So the scoreboard for the season has Joe Gibbs Racing with 10 wins, Team Penske with five wins, and now Hendrick with two wins. The biggest surprise not on the scoreboard has been Stewart-Haas Racing with no wins after having seven wins through the same juncture last season led by Kevin Harvick's five wins.

The new package at Talladega also was a stark contrast to the Daytona 500 that used last season package with restrictor plates. Joe Gibbs Racing finished 1-2-3 led by Hamlin's second career Daytona 500 win, but at Talladega, they had a rough day with Kyle Busch doing the best finishing 10th. Last seasons Coke Zero 400 winner Eric Jones finished 19th, Martin Truex Jr. was 20th and Hamlin was involved in an accident and only completed 80 laps finishing 36th.

“We had a great race earlier this year in Daytona, but this weekend will be entirely different,’’ Hamlin said. “Just like all the other teams, we have learned a lot about ourselves in the weeks since the Daytona 500 and we will be fighting for a repeat win, but we are ready and preparing for the challenge that is coming our way.’’

Hamlin is a great starting point in regards to a betting strategy at 10/1 betting odds. It's hard to keep someone out of the equation who has led laps in 19 of his last 24 Daytona starts and finished sixth or better in seven of his last 11 starts there. He gets out to the front to avoid "the big one" behind him, but he couldn't avoid being in a six-car wreck at Talladega with the new package. And that's kind of the dilemma here: new package results at Talladega versus past history in plate races, specific past history at Daytona, and current form from the entire team ranging from the driver, pit crew, car chief, and crew chief.

Kyle Busch has four wins on the season and 15 top-10s in 17 starts, but in 28 Cup starts at Daytona his only win came in the 2008 July race. Part of the delight of races at Daytona has been how equal most of the cars are giving just about any driver a chance to win. The edge Busch has on most tracks evaporates at Daytona and Talladega.

An observation to note from April's Talladega race was that it appeared the Chevrolet and Ford teams ganged up on the JGR Toyotas. They let them hang out to dry in the draft several times. The JGR cars didn't have any friends and when Kyle Busch got to the lead it didn't last long -- led three times for four laps. There's no reason to believe things will be any different Saturday night. It worked well for Chevrolet then, why not this week too.

The best Talladega performance for Ford was Penske's Joey Logano, winner of the 2015 Daytona 500. He kind of did what he wanted throughout the race and got the front nine times while leading 37 laps. His teammate Brad Keselowski has similar stuff and led twice for 10 laps before finishing 13th.

Keselowski is the active leader with six wins combined between Daytona and Talladega, but his only Daytona win came in this July 2016 race. Logano and Keselowski have been posted as the co-favorites with 8/1 odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook for good reason.

I'm expecting the SHR cars to run well and it's not just a desperate Harvick who has two Daytona wins, but it's also because of 2016 Daytona winner Aric Almirola who had the best performance at Talladega among the organization with ninth-place while leading three times for 27 laps. Almirola, a Tampa, Florida native, was leading on the last lap during the 2018 Daytona 500 but got bumped out of the and by Austin Dillon. The Superbook has Harvick at 10/1 odds and Almirola at 14/1.

There's a lot to go over before placing a wager but I'm leaning towards the current form angle coupled with Talladega results and my own personal greed of being attracted to great value on the odds board. Hendrick and Chevrolet are on the rise and that includes Jimmie Johnson who finished fourth last week at Chicagoland.

“Chicago was a huge step forward for this No. 48 team. Huge," Johnson said. "I’m proud of the organization. Everyone is working hard. This gives us some momentum, but this weekend in Daytona is such a different animal, you know. We go down there, want to be fast, hope to be lucky and good. We obviously had great cars in February, had fast cars at Talladega, you just have to hope not to get caught up in anything.”

Being a seven-time Cup Champion and winning 83 career races does tremendous things for a driver's ego and confidence, but not winning in the last 76 races is almost equally as crushing on the negative end. Last week's nice run was a big boost for the team and I'm certain HMS has some fast cars with nice set-ups ready to challenge for the Daytona win using this package.

Johnson won the non-points Clash prior to this seasons Daytona 500, but that was using the old package with restrictor plates. He's a three-time winner at Daytona and the Superbook is offering 25/1 odds to win Saturday to end the worst drought of his career.

The desperation angle is something I like as well. He's staving for a win. He's going to take every chance he gets to bump anyone between him and the checkered flag to get a win. No more Mr. Nice Guy and no more Mr. Corporate NASCAR driver. I'm expecting a revived Johnson to battle his teammates for the win and you better believe neither Elliott, Bowman, or William Byron are safe from a bump and run if Johnson is behind them late in the race.

Go get 'em, Champ!!!

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (25/1)
2) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
3) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
5) #9 Chase Elliott (10/1)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2019, 07:09 AM

UFC 239 - Best Bets
VegasInsider - Brian Edwards

Jon ‘Bones’ Jones is set to take on Thiago Santos in the main event..

Prediction: Jones has an outrageous reach advantage yet again in this spot. His 84.5-inch reach is 8.5 inches longer than Santos’s 76-inch reach. Jones is entirely too expensive to bet the straight price and he won’t help you much in a parlay, either. Even the price on Jones to win inside the distance (-195 at most shops) is too rich for me. However, I feel like there’s a good chance that Jones wins by KO/TKO.

Let’s go with 1.5 units on Jones to win by KO/TKO for a +185 payout (5dimes.eu).

In the co-main event, Amanda “The Lioness” Nunes (17-4 MMA, 10-1 UFC) will take on the last legend of women’s MMA, Holly Holm..

Prediction: I have tons of respect for Holm and we should certainly note that Tate is the only fighter who has finished her. Nevertheless, it’s hard to pass on prop options for Nunes at plus money.

Let’s go with Nunes for one unit to win inside the distance (-105 price) and one unit on her to win via KO/TKO for a +180 return.

Ben Askren (19-0-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) is set to make his second Octagon appearance against veteran Jorge Masvidal

Prediction: Askren’s wrestling is on another level. He was a two-time NCAA champion at the University of Missouri and represented the United States in freestyle wrestling at the 2008 Summer Olympics. Askren is also undefeated in MMA. However, he’ll be outclassed when the fight is standing. Therefore, the obvious question is whether Masvidal can keep the fight standing or not. He did a helluva job in his fight with Maia, defending all submission attempts by perhaps the best there is in Maia. I bet Maia that night and was extremely anxious listening to the judges’ scores. Masvidal’s demeanor during fight week has been impressive. He seems calm, cool, collected and extremely hungry to put a beating on Askren.

Let’s go with one unit on Masvidal for a +190 payout (William Hill). Also, we like ‘under’ 2.5 rounds for one unit for a +179 return (5dimes.eu).

Former middleweight champ Luke Rockhold (16-4 MMA, 5-3 UFC) will make his light-heavyweight debut against Jan Blachowicz

Prediction: I think Rockhold wins but I don’t trust him enough to lay the expensive price. I’ll pass.

In the opener of the main card, Michael Chiesa and Diego Sanchez will square off in a welterweight contest.

Prediction: Chiesa has 11 career submission victories, but Sanchez has never been submitted. He has seven submission wins of his own. I thought Sanchez’s career was over after Matt Brown beat him with a monster elbow on Nov. 11 of 2017. However, I like what I’ve seen out of Sanchez lately and it seems like a good matchup for him. Chiesa is the younger fighter that has better quickness and speed, but those advantages are negated a bit when the fight goes to the ground.

I give Sanchez a decent shot here. Let’s go with one-half unit on Sanchez for a +315 payout (BetOnline.ag).

Good Luck..

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2019, 07:10 AM

+EV: UFC 4u: 13014 Ben Askren -205 (UFC 239) (Saturday, July 6th)
+EV: UFC 4u: 13524 Jon Jones -588 (UFC 239) (Saturday, July 6th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 911 Colorado Rockies +108 (J Gray | R Ray) (Saturday, July 6th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 917 New York Yankees +130 (C Sabathia | B Snell) (Saturday, July 6th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 907 STL/SF ov7.5 -105 (M Mikolas | M Bumgarner) (Saturday, July 6th)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2019, 08:12 AM

Larry Hartstein

San Francisco -115 Mik Bum

BALTIMORE +130

BALTIMORE +130
BALTIMORE @ TORONTO | 7/06 | 3:07 PM EDT
12:11 AM
In his last four starts, Baltimore's Andrew Cashner has a 1.44 ERA over 25.0 innings. The Orioles went 3-1 in those games. On Saturday he faces a Toronto team that ranks dead last in the majors in batting average (.228) against righties. Take Baltimore.

27-12 IN LAST 39 MLB ML PICKS | +1454
16-6 IN LAST 22 BAL ML PICKS | +911

22-12 IN LAST 34 TOR ML PICKS | +826

N.Y. YANKEES +127

N.Y. YANKEES @ TAMPA BAY | 7/06 | 4:10 PM EDT
12:01 AM
I realize the Yankees are facing Blake Snell, but in six starts in June he gave up 25 earned runs and 33 hits in 23.1 innings. In addition, New York has won eight of nine and 16 of 18. Give me the team with the best record in the AL getting plus money.

27-12 IN LAST 39 MLB ML PICKS | +1454
25-10 IN LAST 35 NYY ML PICKS | +1712

17-11 IN LAST 28 TB ML PICKS | +573

SAN FRANCISCO -115

ST. LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 7/06 | 10:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:50 PM
The Cardinals really struggle against lefties; their .238 batting average against southpaws is seventh-worst in the majors. So the Giants' Madison Bumgarner should have the edge. Also, St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas is 1-4 on the road this season with a 7.23 ERA. Take San Francisco.

27-12 IN LAST 39 MLB ML PICKS | +1454
11-5 IN LAST 16 SF ML PICKS | +492

8-5 IN LAST 13 STL ML PICKS | +171

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2019, 08:12 AM

Stephen Oh

Cleveland -134 Bie
Texas +138 Cha

CLEVELAND -134

CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI | 7/06 | 4:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:36 PM
Shane Bieber (7-3, 3.54 ERA) takes the mound for the Indians. He's coming off one of his best starts this season (zero runs, three hits in 8.0 innings at Baltimore). My model says Cleveland wins more than 60 percent of the time, so you're getting good value at this price.

109-68 IN LAST 177 MLB ML PICKS | +3851
30-18 IN LAST 48 CLE ML PICKS | +1569

15-12 IN LAST 27 CIN ML PICKS | +212

TEXAS +138

TEXAS @ MINNESOTA | 7/06 | 2:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:15 PM
The Rangers' Jesse Chavez has been solid since stretching out as a starter. In his last four games, he has a 1.77 ERA over 20.1 innings. My model says Texas wins this game more than 50 percent of the time, so you're getting excellent value with the Rangers at this price.

109-68 IN LAST 177 MLB ML PICKS | +3851
18-11 IN LAST 29 TEX ML PICKS | +1120

17-7 IN LAST 24 MIN ML PICKS | +1061

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2019, 09:25 AM

Originally posted by Can'tPickAWinner

+EV: UFC 4u: 13014 Ben Askren -205 (UFC 239) (Saturday, July 6th)
+EV: UFC 4u: 13524 Jon Jones -588 (UFC 239) (Saturday, July 6th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 911 Colorado Rockies +108 (J Gray | R Ray) (Saturday, July 6th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 917 New York Yankees +130 (C Sabathia | B Snell) (Saturday, July 6th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 907 STL/SF ov7.5 -105 (M Mikolas | M Bumgarner) (Saturday, July 6th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 914 Minnesota Twins -148 (J Chavez | M Pineda) (Saturday, July 6th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 915 Baltimore Orioles +135 (A Cashner | C Richard) (Saturday, July 6th)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2019, 10:26 AM

MLB(Bob Balfe)
10:05 PM EST
Rotation #907-908
Giants -115 over Cardinals
Bumgarner/Mikolas
The Giants were cooled off last night after unexpected offense has been generated for this team over the last week. Both teams have been inconsistent this year on offense so any offensive fireworks is exciting. The Cardinals have been really bad against left handed starters so tonight it won’t get easier against Madison Bumgarner. St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas has been shaky on the road this season. Look for the San Francisco hitters to continue their hot streak into all-star weekend. Take the Giants.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2019, 10:26 AM

Las Vegas Wolf
Tennis
2% 8223 Tsonga +2.5 sets-140
2% 8714 Stevens +1.5 sets -150
2% 8221 Sousa +4.5 games
2% 8711 mertens -155

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2019, 10:56 AM

BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (JULY 6)

The model has 2 totals and 2 sides. The model has 1 games with a side and total play in the same game.
909 .5* SDP +155
918 .5* TBR -130
922 .5* LAA/HOU u9 -115
928 .5* CLE/CIN u9 -110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2019, 10:56 AM

Below are the Champ MLB Betting System picks for today.

Tampa Bay Rays {C** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is a confirmed official betting series.

NY Mets {B** Bet on the Money Line - This is a confirmed official betting series. If the {A** bet does not win, please automatically go to the {B** bet the next day, and same with the potential {C** bet the day after.

All the best,

**dawggy** · 07-06-2019, 11:12 AM

SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUP

Game: (927) Cleveland Indians at (928) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Cleveland Indians -123

View Analysis

listed
Game: (917) New York Yankees at (918) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -133

View Analysis

RAYS over Yankees – The Yankees have given Sabathia double-digit run support in each of his last two starts and the Yankees won them both. However, since the start of the 2013 season, the Yankees are 0-14 as a dog with Sabathia when they scored at least ten runs combined and won his last two starts, as long as he struck out a total of more than five batters in those two starts. In their last four in this spot, NY lost 4-0, 15-7, 3-1 and 8-5.
These two starters met on June 19th in NY and the Yankees cruised to a 12-1 victory as a small home dog. CC has been TERRIBLE when the opponent is seeking the same-season revenge. The Yankees are 0-6 SU as a road dog with Sabathia when they won in his last start against the current opponent. NY lost every game by multiple runs, with the average final score 7.50 runs to 2.5 runs. In these six starts, Sabathia has NO quality starts, he has lasted an average of 4.11 innings and has an average WHIP of 2.16.
Fitting in very nicely here is the fact that the Rays are 6-0 SU with Blake Snell starts as a home favorite when they lost in his last start against the current opponent. Snell has averaged 6.22 innings of work, allowing an average of 1.33 runs while striking out 7.50 batters in these six starts. The Rays’ average final score in these six revenge games has been 7.50 runs to 1.67 runs.
Finally, it is worth mentioning that the Rays are 8-0 SU off a game as a dog in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks and 7-0 SU as a favorite after a game in which Tommy Pham struck out at least twice.
The value is with the Rays.
Game: (921) Los Angeles Angels at (922) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 7:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1H Houston Astros -205

View Analysis
Game: (923) Oakland Athletics at (924) Seattle Mariners
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Oakland Athletics -132

View Analysis

**dawggy** · 07-06-2019, 11:12 AM

ROB VENOBASEBALL PLAYS

Game: (921) Los Angeles Angels at (922) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 7:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (-113)

View Analysis
Game: (911) Colorado Rockies at (912) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Colorado Rockies +110

View Analysis

**dawggy** · 07-06-2019, 11:13 AM

DR. CHUCKBASEBALL PLAYS

Game: (907) St. Louis Cardinals at (908) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 10:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: San Francisco Giants -121

View Analysis

Mikolas v. Bumgarner
Pomeranz had been pitching well of late...but the Cards jumped all over him early and often with the wind blowing out at Oracle and despite Hudson finding some trouble as well...ended up not being all that close.
The cap today is basically the same...and while Vegas hung the Cards as a favorite only to be immediately bought to dog status...today with MadBum on the mound it's a different story. He is the favorite for both first 5 and full game...and correctly so. As we have mentioned in the recent past...only 1 team boasts 4 starters in the "top" 20 for HR/FB rate and it is the Cards with Waino, Hudson, Mikolas, and Flaherty ALL north of 20% rate...however many fly balls one is allowing, 1 of 4 or 1 of 5 of them leaving the park is grim and not helpful to the team attempting to back them for a win. Especially when they get a still very much auditioning Madison Bumgarner.
Mikolas has put together some solid outings...but overall his metrics are << Hudson and now the Giants throw an even better lefty at the struggling Cards offense...and while this feels like I am looking for vindication for last night...I agree it's not easy to get right back on the horse after being sent flying so far...if you had told me which game I'd like most IF they were to lose 9-4 it would be backing the Giants tonight!
The value at such an almost pickem range is immense!
Game: (923) Oakland Athletics at (924) Seattle Mariners
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Oakland Athletics -131

View Analysis

Bassitt v. Gonzalez
As stated in the title this matchup features a revenge spot for Chris Bassitt, who took on Marco head to head a few weeks back at home...and while he did not necessarily pitch well enough to win, the 9-2 final is deceiving as the.bullpen allowed 5 runs in the last couple innings.
I also said I have some trends backing this small line considering. Most notably taking into account the revenge nature it is an 11 of last 14 winner! (Including no losses sinc e 2017!) The profit on all the trends occasionally reaches the 30+% ROI mark and the value there is intense! In fact the trend expanded out is 24-7 and 20-11 RL for 30% and 37% ROI!
Gonzalez will face a lineup full of right handed hitters, limiting his advantage over lefties...with one exception, Matt Olson, who is a downright CRUSHER of LHP. Only Josh Reddick eclipses him in most any category. He Ks less than 10% of the time, and then it gets nuts:
.500 ISO
1.228 OPS
9 wRC
4.7 wRAA
.489 wOBA
213 wRC+
FLAT OUT absurdities! I am not making this play based upon one hitter as that would be equally absurd. But it all adds up together for an amazing spot for the A's....the revenge, 2 runs or less last night, against LHP, divisional foe, with Matt Olson being the sold "weak" spot in the lineup being the cherry on top of a crazy valuable less than -150 line!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2019, 11:26 AM

Tony Chau/John Morrison Sports Betting Champ

Tampa Bay [C] ML-official
NY Mets [B] ML-official

Arizona won last night as official play
Miami won as unofficial

Service Plays Saturday 7/6/19

Service Plays Saturday 7/6/19

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