Wednesday 12-20-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by Valuline at Delta Downs

Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Delta Downs, Race 7 (Wednesday December 20, 2017)

BETITALLWITHPAUL
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)

DED-7 1mile DIRT Nine Horses
"A" CLM 5,000 F/M 3YUP $15,000
P# ex p3 p4 t s ML WP TVL

1 BETITALLWITHPAUL 7/5 38% 8/5 Strong Favorite icon
2 FAVORITE PROMISE 12/1 17% 5/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Fair Grounds - Race #9 - Post: 5:05pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating: 3

#10 GLITTER O'PRADO (ML=12/1)
#5 SHY RUSTON (ML=5/1)
#8 CUSTOM FOR CORALES (ML=4/1)


GLITTER O'PRADO - I like to play horses that faced open company in their last race and drop into state bred races. This filly fits the bill. SHY RUSTON - Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a solid outing in the last race within the last month or so. Ranked number one in earnings per race. Another sign that this animal is the class of the race. CUSTOM FOR CORALES - Aboard this animal on November 26th and Sutherland is right back in the irons today. Could be an overlay in this race at morning odds of 4/1. Finished fourth in last race at Fair Grounds but was close at the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 ELLE LES YU (ML=7/2), #4 ROSE'S ASSET (ML=9/2), #1 VADOMA (ML=6/1),

ELLE LES YU - Hasn't been on the Fair Grounds oval in the last few weeks. Cause for some concern. There's early speed, early speed, and more speed in this event. Doesn't look promising for this horse. ROSE'S ASSET - This horse just hasn't looked fit lately. No picnic to play any pony in a sprint event if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last sixty days. The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this horse as a possibly overvalued equine. VADOMA - No good results for this runner in a sprint event over the last two months tells me that this mare is in a tough circumstance It appears like too much early zip is on board in this event. This early speedball will in all probability get baked up front.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #10 GLITTER O'PRADO to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,8,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [5,8,10] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:05pm - Optional Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 99

Rating: 4

#7 LITTLE NO WAY (ML=8/1)
#9 ROYAL BLESSING (ML=3/1)
#4 SMALL FORTUNE (ML=12/1)


LITTLE NO WAY - My expertise says this is the lone stalker in the race. Forgive the off the board finish on the off track last out. On a non-sloppy track, has a good chance in today's race. ROYAL BLESSING - I seem to always make money betting Walsh horses on the turf. That barn has a solid win pct for this distance/surface. This horse has the top turf number in his last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here animal has a good chance. You have to really like that latest race speed rating, 101, which is the highest recent race speed rating of this bunch. I'm focusing on the class of this race horse, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. SMALL FORTUNE - In this race here, this thoroughbred has clearly shown signs that he likes the turf. His Equibase speed figs are the highest in the field for this distance & surface. This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +200.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 LEMONIST (ML=7/2), #2 BENEFACTOR (ML=4/1), #1 THE BULL (AUS) (ML=6/1),

LEMONIST - I'd like to see more hospitable recent outings with M/L odds of 7/2. Hard to play this colt today since the race isn't limited to 3 year olds. Registered a common speed rating in the last race in the Showing Up on Nov 4th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that figure. BENEFACTOR - The Brain tells me to keep away from horses in short distance contests that haven't hit the board in sprint contests recently. Can't really be sure that the most recent speed figure of 100 is valid since it was attained on the soft turf. THE BULL (AUS) - Awfully hard to play this horse when he hasn't been showing any fighting spirit recently. Earned a mediocre speed fig last time out in an Allowance race on October 14th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - SMALL FORTUNE - Your best wagering opportunity is with this gelding. He holds the best average class rating. Always a plus on turf.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #7 LITTLE NO WAY to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
7 with [4,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[4,7,9] with [4,7,9] with [2,4,6,7,9] with [2,4,6,7,9] Total Cost: $36

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
[4,7,9] with [4,7,9] with [2,4,7,9] with [2,3,4,6,7,9] with [2,3,4,6,7,9] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $28500 Class Rating: 33

FOR ACCREDITED OHIO BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 SHARI'S QUEEN B 2/1

# 5 KINDA SHY 15/1

# 4 MISS REDWOOD ROSE 4/1

I think SHARI'S QUEEN B is a competitive choice. Look for a formidable performance with the class drop. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group recently. Difficult to pass on this filly with Paucar in the saddle. KINDA SHY - Looks to have a competitive class edge based on the most recent company kept. This bunch is much less demanding than the last one she faced. MISS REDWOOD ROSE - Lately Dacosta has provided wagerers with a very strong winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Will most likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the midpoint of the race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

Penn National - Race 4

W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)


Claiming $4,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $11,400 • Post: 7:22P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 20. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. TWO CUTIES is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TWO CUTIES: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. WOLFIE: Horse has th e highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). MISS KALEM: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was w ithin the last ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3
TWO CUTIES
4/1

5/2
7
WOLFIE
6/1

6/1
5
MISS KALEM
5/2

7/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
3
TWO CUTIES
3

4/1
Front-runner
89

88

93.4

68.0

64.5
7
WOLFIE
7

6/1
Front-runner
86

91

93.0

51.4

41.9
5
MISS KALEM
5

5/2
Front-runner
78

67

89.4

59.2

50.7
6
ATHENA IN FLIGHT
6

10/1
Front-runner
68

69

65.4

56.8

43.8
9
PLUS PERFECT
9

8/1
Front-runner
68

60

61.0

56.2

43.7
4
BARN DUTY
4

8/1
Alternator/Stalker
71

70

61.5

61.6

55.6
8
BRAVUCONA
8

7/2
Alternator/Stalker
74

56

52.0

59.4

47.9
2
STREAK OF HOPE
2

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
75

61

42.0

57.6

49.6
1
FARREST RIM
1

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
72

59

40.6

49.8

33.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $14700 Class Rating: 86

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 IRISH MAJOR 2/1

# 8 RED CAT (CHI) 6/1

# 11 BOMBONERO 5/2

IRISH MAJOR is my choice. Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 83 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the top in this group. With a very good 86 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this contest. Is a solid contender based on numbers put up recently under today's conditions. RED CAT (CHI) - Overall the speed figures of this racer look competitive in this contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

Turf Paradise - Race 1

$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 1-2) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)


Allowance • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 12:40
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, (PLUS UP TO 10% PLUS 10%) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * BRINGIN IT ON: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Spee d Rating. STOCKTON SIX: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1
BRINGIN IT ON
3/5

5/2
5
CARACORTADA
5/1

5/1
8
STOCKTON SIX
6/1

9/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
BRINGIN IT ON
1

3/5
Fast
90

94

2.0

0.0

0.0
2
FURRIDDLE
2

8/1
Average
77

76

4.0

0.0

0.0
3
TRES N CANDY
3

10/1
Average
86

79

4.2

0.0

0.0
4
CNOTES MOVING CASH
4

20/1
Slow/Trouble-prone
66

65

6.4

0.0

0.0
6
CANT BUY LOVE
6

15/1
Average
81

69

5.1

0.0

0.0
7
WYREIT
7

15/1
Fast
83

73

2.7

0.0

0.0
8
STOCKTON SIX
8

6/1
Fast
86

84

1.2

0.0

0.0
9
REBS A RIPPIN
9

30/1
Slow
0

0

7.4

0.0

0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DXL Frisco Bowl preview: Louisiana Tech vs SMU Preview and Predictions

By Gracenote for Scores and Stats
by Gracenote on 12/06/2017



DXL FRISCO BOWL STORYLINES

1. SMU will face Louisiana Tech in the inaugural Frisco Bowl on Dec. 20 with a new coach. Sonny Dykes, whose first head coaching job was at Louisiana Tech in 2010, will coach the Mustangs at the bowl game formerly known as the Miami Beach Bowl before being moved to Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas, in the offseason. Chad Morris, who led SMU to its first bowl game since 2012, was hired at Arkansas on Dec. 6 after building a 14-22 record in three seasons with the Mustangs.

2. The Bulldogs won their final two games to become bowl eligible and earn their fourth straight postseason bid under coach Skip Holtz. Louisiana Tech is one of nine programs in the country that enters the postseason with three straight bowl wins. The Bulldogs are playing their third bowl in the past four years in North Texas after winning the Heat of Dallas Bowl in 2014 and the Armed Forces Bowl in Forth Worth last year.

3. SMU and Oklahoma State are the only FBS teams with a 3,000-yard passer, 1,000-yard rusher and two 1,000-yard receivers, so it should come as no surprise that the Mustangs averaged 40.2 points per game. Sophomore quarterback Ben Hicks threw for 3,442 yards and 32 touchdowns while Trey Quinn and Courtland Sutton each caught 12 touchdowns. It will be a big test for a Bulldogs defense that ranked near the middle of Conference USA in opponents' points (26.7) and passing yards (215.1).

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: SMU -5

ABOUT LOUISIANA TECH (6-6, 4-4 Conference USA): Sophomore quarterback J'Mar Smith threw for 2,758 yards and 13 touchdowns, including five scores to Conference USA co-newcomer of the year Teddy Veal (69 catches, 832 yards). Junior defensive end Jaylon Ferguson (26.5 career sacks) had a team-high six sacks while senior safety Secdrick Cooper had 63 stops and two interceptions. Freshman cornerback Amik Robertson led the team with four interceptions to go with 58 tackles and two sacks.

ABOUT SMU (7-5, 4-4 American Athletic): Quinn (106 catches, 1,191 yards) leads the country with 8.8 receptions per game, needs six catches to tie the single-season school record and is tied with Sutton (62 catches, 1,017 yards) for second place in single-season touchdown catches. Senior defensive end Justin Lawler joined Quinn and Sutton as first-team All-AAC picks after blocking three kicks and leading the Mustangs with 9.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss. The Mustangs' defense allowed at least 31 points in its final five games, which included three straight losses before a last-second goal-line stand in the finale snapped the skid.



PREDICTION: SMU 38, Louisiana Tech 30

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Wednesday, December 20, 2017

NBA (711) LOS ANGELES LAKERS VS (712) HOUSTON ROCKETS

Take: over

Reason: Your free play for Wednesday, December 20, 2017 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the LA Lakers and the Houston Rockets. The Houston Rockets are the hottest team in the NBA, winning 14 games in a row and 20 of their last 21 games. The Rockets are 2nd in the NBA in scoring, averaging 115.3 ppg. Houston had yesterday off and when they get that days rest they are 9-4-1 ATS their last 14 games. The Lakers are 10-18 on the season and have lost their last three games and eight of their last 10 games. I'm looking at the OVER here tonight. The Lakers give up points and that means we can expect Houston to get at least their season average if not more. With a total of just 225 that means we need about 105-110 out of the Lakers. The Lakers are 19-8-1 O/U their last 28 vs the Southwest division. The last four meetings between these clubs in Houston have gone OVER and five of the last six overall have gone OVER. Play the OVER here tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

FREE play: LOUISVILLE -14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Wednesday, Dec 20 is:

Oakland -3.5 over Towson.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS
(CFB) SMU
(CBB)St Johns
(NBA) Magic

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RYAN WORDEN
NCAA-B | Dec 20, 2017
Manhattan vs. Hofstra
Hofstra-5½

Hofstra has been playing really well of late especially on the offensive end where they've been averaging 90 points a game in December. Justin Wright-Foreman and Eli Pemberton are averaging a combined 40 points a game and are a tough tandem to hold down especially since both are dangerous from 3. Manhattan is a young team that lacks the firepower to keep up in this one. Give The Points and Take Hofstra Wednesday Night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RED DOG SPORTS
Soccer | Dec 20, 2017
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Toulouse Olympique
Lyon -120

Lyon is #3 in the France League One table and +23 goals differential. Toulouse is 4th from the bottom and -11 goals. I think we see a 2-1 away win.

Lyon 2

Toulouse 1