Tuesday 12-19-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Claiming - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 75

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 TOAST TO LOGAN 5/1

# 6 SHES A GAMBLE 8/1

# 9 BJS THUNDERSTRUCK 3/1

I think TOAST TO LOGAN is a quite good choice. Looks very good to be up on the front end at the first call. Had one of the most competitive speed figures of this group in his last competition. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 69 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the most respectable in this group of animals. SHES A GAMBLE - Has performed well recently in short races, posting a nifty 63 avg speed figure. BJS THUNDERSTRUCK - Has respectable front speed and should fare soundly versus this field. The average class fig alone makes this horse a key contender.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,500 Class Rating: 94

Rating: 3

#6 OFFLEE SINISTER (ML=5/2)
#4 HANDSUP MONEYDOWN (ML=8/1)
#3 CHARITABLE (ML=12/1)


OFFLEE SINISTER - Have to make this gelding a win candidate; he comes off a sharp race on November 29th. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a come back. Past performance data show this thoroughbred with three improving speed figs. Rivera should be on a live horse in this race. This gelding might as well call Mahoning Valley Race Course home. Don't overlook how he races well over this venue. HANDSUP MONEYDOWN - Rounding his way back into form. Each of his finish positions is getting better in his recent starts. This gelding has been running at higher class levels previously. He did win versus better, a $17,500 Optional Claiming race though. I believe this one is in the right spot today. This gelding is in exceptional form right now. Ended up third last time around the track and comes back rapidly. This mount picks up a lot of money per race around the track. I believe he can augment that total in this event. CHARITABLE - When Ccamaque and Brown join forces on animals the ROI has been fantastic at +146.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 B ROD MACLEAN (ML=7/2), #1A PUT IT BACK JACK (ML=4/1), #1 BIG JOE CANDY (ML=4/1),

B ROD MACLEAN - This colt didn't do much last time out. PUT IT BACK JACK - Don't think that this gelding has value at 4/1 this time out. BIG JOE CANDY - Hard to put any cash on this gelding on the win end. Likes to hit the board though. Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance races lately. Improbable to see him doing it this time out either.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #6 OFFLEE SINISTER on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

Parx Racing - Race 1

First Half Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta


Maiden Claiming $15,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 56 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 12:25
FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Stalker. SISTER WENDY is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * REGAL ANTICIPATION: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LION AND THE WOLF: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in Tr ackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7
REGAL ANTICIPATION
6/5

9/5
6
LION AND THE WOLF
5/1

7/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
6
LION AND THE WOLF
6

5/1
Front-runner
53

41

80.8

34.8

29.3
7
REGAL ANTICIPATION
7

6/5
Front-runner
73

70

80.2

67.2

65.2
4
SAFELY TOUCH
4

20/1
Front-runner
51

40

79.0

22.6

11.1
3
SISTER WENDY
3

5/2
Alternator/Stalker
55

46

56.2

41.0

35.0
1
SARA'S LAST DANCE
1

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

44.2

27.4

17.9
2
PHILJANGLE
2

8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
65

57

37.8

33.2

25.7








Unknown Running Style: ROSIE TOO (10/1) [Jockey: Caballero Hector - Trainer: Dunn John J].

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland Park

Sunland Park - Race 8

1st Half Late $1 Daily Double /$1 Exacta / Trifecta/.10 Superfecta


Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $12,100 • Post: 3:29P
FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 19, 2017 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MAKER PAY: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DIABOLICA L QUEEN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. BEAUTYS RAP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BLUE EYES WHO: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 y ards if a Quarter Horse race). PLENTY SPECIAL: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff.
9
MAKER PAY
8/1

6/1
8
DIABOLICAL QUEEN
20/1

7/1
10
BEAUTYS RAP
4/1

7/1
3
BLUE EYES WHO
15/1

7/1
2
PLENTY SPECIAL
8/1

8/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
12
BROADWAY RUNAWAY
12

5/1
Front-runner
72

67

97.4

59.2

49.2
8
DIABOLICAL QUEEN
8

20/1
Front-runner
72

69

90.6

63.2

53.2
7
WESTERN BOUND
7

20/1
Front-runner
76

59

87.8

56.2

42.7
2
PLENTY SPECIAL
2

8/1
Front-runner
72

78

83.2

68.6

58.1
11
FLYING BOB ED
11

15/1
Front-runner
71

69

76.0

58.2

41.2
4
CHICAS MINISTERETT
4

10/1
Front-runner
70

55

75.5

52.8

35.8
1
DEVONAS DEVIL
1

3/1
Front-runner
77

73

70.0

55.4

43.4
5
BLOSS
5

6/1
Front-runner
72

62

68.4

56.6

43.1
6
DANZIG TERA
6

20/1
Front-runner
78

62

68.4

40.4

22.4
3
BLUE EYES WHO
3

15/1
Alternator/Front-runner
76

69

74.8

67.0

58.5
10
BEAUTYS RAP
10

4/1
Alternator/Stalker
77

71

72.2

58.2

51.2
9
MAKER PAY
9

8/1
Trailer
72

74

53.6

69.2

57.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #1 - Post: 12:40pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating: 3

#3 SENNA (ML=4/1)
#1 TOCCET'S CHARM (ML=2/1)
#5 RONNIE CLOUD (ML=12/1)


SENNA - I like the way this gelding's finish positions have gotten better with each start recently. A sign of a thoroughbred coming into top form. This gelding is in nice form. Ran first on December 4th. TOCCET'S CHARM - Winless in his last three starts, this gelding did win on Jul 8th at Hastings Park versus tougher competition. Aboard this entrant on Nov 28th and Corbett is right back in the irons in today's contest. This gelding is in nice form, having run a good race on Nov 28th, finishing second. RONNIE CLOUD - Arrieta rode this animal for the initial time in the last race and comes right back today. Good return on investment for this rider and handler twosome. This gelding is in fine condition. Ended up first on November 27th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 EVENING CONCERTO (ML=9/5), #2 MISSING GROOM (ML=7/2),

EVENING CONCERTO - Can't play this probable favorite off the long layoff. MISSING GROOM - I can't play this frequent non-winner. Gets the task fulfilled once in a while.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #3 SENNA on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 86

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 19, 2017 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 LUCK OUT 2/1

# 1 WEB OF DEMONS 3/1

# 2 FRIED PICKLES 5/2

LUCK OUT looks to be a very good contender. When a conditioner brings any pony back this quickly it is a positive sign. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this horse a key contender. Looks quite good for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in dirt route races as of late. WEB OF DEMONS - Vergara has been hot the last month, winning at a nifty 22 percent clip. She looks formidable in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. FRIED PICKLES - The conditioner wheels this entrant back quickly to race again. Earning some nice profits in dirt route races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc’s Sports

#211 Take Akron Zips over Florida Atlantic Owls (Boca Raton Bowl, Tuesday, 12/19 7 pm ESPN)

What a season Lane Kiffin had at Florida Atlanta this season. He won 10 games to go along with a Conference USA Championship. But unfortunately Florida Atlantic may be the end of the line for him, as he was not considered for a coaching promotion due to the bridges he has burned in the past. I just do not see them running over an Akron team that is thrilled to be in this bowl game. Toledo is a very similar team to Florida Atlantic and I expect a similar result in this game, a 15-18 point victory for FAU. Akron is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. FAU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 nonconference games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RED DOG SPORTS
NCAA-F | Dec 19, 2017
Akron vs. Florida Atlantic
Akron +23

FAU has been great this year under Lance Kiffin. They won just 3 games last year and they get to play their bowl game in the state of Florida and should have plenty of fans in attendance. However, it has been several weeks since they played and Akron should be motivated being the largest of all the underdogs in bowl action. Take the points since you are getting +23.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MARK FRANCO
NCAA-F | Dec 19, 2017
Akron vs. Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic-22½

Florida Atlantic won't have to travel far for its bowl game; in fact, the team won't have to travel at all. The Owls will be home for their postseason appearance on Dec. 19, when they face Akron in the Boca Raton Bowl.

The Owls played a competitive non-conference schedule and absorbed three losses before going 8-0 in Conference USA action. They defeated North Texas 41-17 on Nov. 30 to win the league title and possess one of the nation's top running backs in league MVP Devin Singletary, not to mention an efficient passing game led by Jason Driskel. Florida Atlantic, which is playing in its first bowl game since 2008, finished 3-9 in each of the previous three seasons before turning things around under Kiffin, the former coach at Tennessee and USC, as well as of the NFL's Oakland Raiders.

Akron fell to Toledo 45-28 in the Mid-American Conference championship game - a contest that wasn't as close as the final score indicated - but still was selected for a bowl game for the second time in three years. The Zips lost to Penn State and Iowa State by a combined 93-14 margin early this season.

The Zips do not have an impressive rushing attack, as they average 3.3 yards per carry and didn't have a single player gain 400 during the season.

Zips are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RYAN WORDEN
NCAA-B | Dec 19, 2017
South Dakota vs. UCLA
South Dakota+7½

UCLA doesn't have the offensive firepower at the moment to be favored by this much over anyone and that includes South Dakota who is a quality team. The Coyotes play very good defense holding teams to under 70 ppg and their offense is very capable of putting up 75-80 points on anyone as the proved by scoring 80 against Duke on December 2nd.

UCLA will be better in February and March after their young players go through the Pac 12 schedule but right now they are having trouble scoring against good defensive teams. They have lost their last 2 games to Michigan and Cincinnati, who also play great D and couldn't break 70 in either game. South Dakota will be able to ugly this game up and keep it in the 70's which will leave the outcome in doubt until the very end and earn South Dakota the cover. Take The Points and South Dakota To Cover.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Tuesday, December 19, 2017

CB (527) GEORGIA TECH VS (528) GEORGIA

Take: (528) GEORGIA

Reason: Your free play for Tuesday, December 19, 2017 is in the Intrastate battle between the Georgia Bulldogs and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Georgia has just two games left before entering conference play with Ga Tech tonight and Temple up next. The Bulldogs are off a loss at U Mass, 62-72. It was just their second loss of the season, the other coming in a tourney against San Diego State, 68-75. Tech snapped its three game losing streak with a win at home over Florida A&M, 79-54. They had lost to Grambling State, Tennessee and Wofford. Two of those losses to much inferior opponents. Georgia is a 4.5 point favorite on their home court. My number makes this game into the double digits. Play Georgia.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

FREE play: TUES Nevada -16

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BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Tuesday, Dec 19 is:

Tampa Bay Lightning over Vegas Golden Knights.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STEPHEN NOVER
NCAA-B | Dec 19, 2017
Illinois-Chicago vs. Illinois State
Illinois-Chicago+10½

This isn't so much a play on Illinois-Chicago as it is a fade on Illinois State laying double-digits in a huge letdown spot.

The Redbirds upset Mississippi, 101-97, in overtime on the road this past Saturday. It was a dramatic and great victory for the Redbirds. So Illinois State can't be blamed for taking lightly regarded Illinois-Chicago lightly. The Redbirds also have a far more important game on deck when they open Missouri Valley Conference play against Evansville on Saturday. Illinois State isn't good enough to cover a margin this big against a Horizon League team without being focused and playing well. As a rule, I don't like to lay big numbers with a Missouri Valley Conference team since it's a conference known for defense and slow tempo. Plus the Redbirds just aren't that good. They surrender nearly 77 points a game and are one of the weakest rebounding teams in Division I ranking 339th out of 351 teams. They upset MIssissippi by playing five guards in overtime. That was a good shock tactic, but it won't hold up for an entire game. Illinois State upset another SEC team, South Carolina, last month. The Redbirds then lost 82-64 to Boise State in their next game. Again, my handicap is nearly entirely based on a projected letdown factor from Illinois State. But Illinois-Chicago is 2-1 in its last three games and off a win against Dartmouth. The Flames have a top shot-blocker in Tai Odiase. He is the Flames' career-leader in blocked shots with 281, which is the second-highest active career total among Division I players.