10-19-18

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StatFox Super Situations

NFL | CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE
Play On - Home underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record
118-64 since 1997. ( 64.8% | 47.6 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

NFL | KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO
Play On - Favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (SAN DIEGO) off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off a road loss
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )

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NFL

Week 7

Bengals (3-1-1) @ Colts (4-2)— Home side won eight of last nine series games, including last five in row; Bengals lost last six visits here, with all six by 6+ points, four of six by 13+ points, but they did beat Colts 42-28 at home LY. Cincy is 0-1-1 since its bye after a 3-0 start; they missed 36-yard FG to win on last play of OT last week, almost overcoming 116 penalty yards by converting 10-16 on third down. Indy won four in row after 0-2 start, scoring 38+ points in three of four games; they’re 30 for 50 on third down in last four games (8 of 25 in first two). Indy is 7-6 as home favorite under Pagano, 2-1 this year. Bengals are 7-3-2 vs spread in last dozen games as a road underdog. Four of last five Colt games went over the total.

Titans (2-4) @ Redskins (1-5)—Both teams struggling badly; Titans snapped 4-game skid last week with 16-14 win over winless Jags- their last two games were decided by total of three points. Tennessee lost last two road games by combined score of 74-24. Redskins lost last four games, allowing 34.8 ppg; they’ve lost field position in last three games by 25-18-15 yards- four of their five losses are by 10+ points. Home side lost last four series games; six of last ten series games were decided by 3 or less points. Titans won last two visits here, 27-21/25-22. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-5. Four of last five Washington games went over. Redskins are 5-10 in last 15 games as a home fave.

Dolphins (2-3) @ Bears (3-3)—Chicago turned ball over nine times in its three losses (-2/-2/-1), one time in its three wins (+4/+2/+1); they lost both home games, to Bills/Packers, as road team won five of their six games this season. Since 2007, Chicago is 12-20-1 as a home favorite, 0-1 this year; they’re 4-3 in last seven games vs Miami, but lost three of four here, with only win in 1988. Dolphins lost three of last four games, giving up winning score to Pack last week with 0:03 left; they’ve turned ball over 3+ times in three of their five games. Chicago is 0-3 scoring less than 27 points. Fish are 27-14-1 as road underdogs since ’08, 7-7 under Philbin. Four of Miami games went over total, as have three of last four Bear games.

Browns (3-2) @ Jaguars (0-6)—Huge trap game for improved Browns, coming off rare win vs rival Steelers. Winning point scored in last 1:09 in four of five Cleveland games; their two road games (1-1) were decided by total of four points. Over last decade, Browns are 6-1 when favored on road; they’ve run ball for33 yards in last two games. Jaguars got first cover of season last week; since ’10 they’re 6-20-1 as home dogs, 0-2 this season, losing by 27-8 points, but they allowed total of only 33 points in last two games. Last eight Brown-Jaguar games were decided by 6 or less points. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 5-2-2 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 3-5 out of division. Four of five Cleveland games went over the total.

Seahawks (3-2) @ Rams (1-4)—Rams won 27-20 at Seattle in ’04 playoffs; since then, St Louis is 2-16 against the Seahawks, scoring an average of 9.5 ppg in their last six series losses- teams split last four games played here. Rams lost last three games overall, despite having a spurt of at least 14-0 in each game; St Louis has spurts where they play very well, but then they undo it with huge mistakes at bad times (see last 0:30 of 1st half Monday). Since 2007, they’re 17-25 as home underdogs. Seattle has only four takeaways in five games but is still +1 in turnovers; they’ve allowed 7.2+ ypa in three of last four games- they’ve covered six of last nine games as road favorites. NFL-wide, home underdogs in division games are 4-7 against the spread.

Panthers (3-2-1) @ Packers (4-2)—Carolina is 3-0-1 when they get 2+ takeaways in a game, scoring 28 ppg; they scored 19-10 points in losing both games with no takeaways. Panthers covered nine of last 11 tries as a road dog- they’re 1-1-1 SU on road, losing 38-10 in Baltimore. Packers won last three games by 21-32-3 points, after 1-2 start; they’ve scored 13 TD’s on last 29 drives, after scoring six on first 30 this season. Pack is 15-9 as home favorites since ’11, 1-1 this season. GB is 8-4 in this series, 3-2 here; average total in last four series games is 57.0. NFC South road teams are 2-6-1 vs spread on road; NFC North non-conference favorites are 3-2. Last four Carolina games, five of six Packer games went over the total.

Falcons (2-4) @ Ravens (4-2)—Atlanta lost last three games, allowing 32.7 ppg; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 14-13-10 points while allowing 31.7 ppg (10 TD’s on 31 drives); foes are 22 of last 43 on 3rd down. Falcons covered three of last 10 tries as road dogs. Three of four Raven wins are by 20+ points; they’re 16-8-2 vs spread in NFC games under Harbaugh- they were held to 16-13 points in two losses. Atlanta hasn’t held anyone under 24 points this year. Teams split four series games, with three of four decided by 6 or less points; Falcons lost 24-10 in only visit here, in 2006. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 1-4-1 vs spread; AFC North favorites are 5-2-2 outside their division. Three of last four Raven games went over total.

Vikings (2-4) @ Bills (3-3)—Buffalo lost three of last four games after 2-0 start, losing last two home games by 12-15 points; they’ve run ball 45 times for only 117 yards in last two games, are 6-4 in last 10 games as home favorite, 1-1 this year- two of its three wins are by FG over NFC North teams. Minnesota lost four of last five games while starting three different QB’s, losing last two games by combined 59-13; they turned ball over 3+times in three of four losses, had no takeaways in 4th loss- they were +2 in both wins. Vikings are 8-4 in series games, winning four of six in both cities; they scored 31+ points in four of last five series games- they’re 18-21-1 in last 40 games as a road underdog, 1-2 this season, 6-11 in last 17 games vs AFC foes.

Chiefs (2-3) @ Chargers (5-1)—San Diego won 11 of last 13 series games, including last four in row, winning both games LY by three points each; Chiefs lost last six visits here, with three of six by exactly 3 points. Chargers won their last five games overall (4-1 vs spread); they’re 2-0 as home favorites this year, winning by 9-19-31 points at home- Bolts are 8-3 vs spread at home under McCoy, 4-1 when favored. KC covered its last four games, winning two of last three after 0-2 start; they scored 17 or less points in losses, 34+ in wins. Chargers held four of six opponents to 18 or less points. Chiefs lost four of last five post-bye games, with three of four losses by 10+; they’re 3-0 as road dogs this year, 5-1 overall under Reid.

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Maddux Sports

10* KC Chiefs +4.5

10* NY Giants +7

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Hitting Pay Dirt:

AJ NFL: 8-7 +2.4u

49ers/Broncos under 50.5 * 2 units

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Indian cowboy

7-Unit Play. #468. Take Detroit Lions -2.5 over New Orleans Saints (Sunday @ 1pm est)

3-Unit Play. #478. Take Pittsburgh Steelers -3 over Houston Texans (Monday @ 8:30pm est)

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Doc Sports

8 Unit Play. #469/#825 Take Kansas City Chiefs +4 over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) NFL Game of the Year. The Chargers just keep winning and are now one of the best teams in the league. That being said, this team is really banged up, and because of this all of the pressure falls on QB Phillip Rivers and his wide receivers. San Diego has no success running the football against Oakland until their final drive of the game, and I do not see things getting better this week against Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off a bye, and Andy Reid has been outstanding in this spot, winning 13 of his 15 games following a bye. Much like the Oakland game last week, divisional games tend to come down to the wire, and I just do not see San Diego blowing out KC. QB Rivers will have his moments in this game and put up some passing yards, but I expect the Chiefs to match them score for score. Kansas City is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. San Diego is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played during October. Take the points in this one.

4 Unit Play. #473/#829 Take Arizona Cardinals -3.5 over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:25 pm Fox) We used Oakland as our top play last week figuring they would put forth a good effort, and that is exactly what happened. But they lost that game (they should have won it) and I feel a letdown will be in effect today. Arizona did not play great against Washington last week, but they just have too many weapons for Oakland to keep pace with. Carson Palmer and Jared Veldheer are both former Raiders, and you can bet they want to play well against their former squad. QB Derek Carr had a running attack last week and played the best game of his rookie season, but I just do not believe he will be able to follow that up against a defense as strong as Arizona. Oakland could not generate a pass rush whatsoever last week and allowed Phillip Rivers to sit in the pocket all afternoon and pick them apart. I see the same thing happening this week with Carson Palmer. Arizona is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Oakland is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.

4 Unit Play. #474/#830 Take Over 44.5 in Arizona Cardinals @ Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:25 pm Fox)

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Jason Sharpe


5* Detroit -3
3* Bengals +3
3* Jacksonville +5

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Ferringo

SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS

1-Unit Play. Take #454 Washington (-5.5) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)

1-Unit Play. Take #455 Miami (+3.5) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)

3-Unit Play. Take #458 Jacksonville (+5.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
For some reason everyone loves the Browns right now. Why? Who have they beaten and what have they done to deserve all the hype that they are getting. I have heard more than one media bobblehead say this week they thought the Browns were the favorites to win the AFC North! Are you kidding me? Cleveland is in a letdown spot after an emotional win over rival Pittsburgh. The Browns were lucky in that game, benefitting from a terrible early drop by Markus Wheaton that would've extended a drive inside the 10 and potentially put the Steelers up 10-0. The week prior the Browns were down 28-3 to a bad Titans team. They played Baltimore and New Orleans tough at home. But the fact is that four of their five games have been decided by four points or less. If the Browns have proven themselves the equals to the Titans - a team the Jaguars should've beaten on the road last week - then how is Cleveland favored this heavily this week? I'm not buying the Browns hype.

2-Unit Play. Take #459 Seattle (-6.5) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
Everything is pointing toward the Seahawks in this one. They are pissed off after losing at home to the Cowboys at home last week. The defending champs are losing ground to the 49ers and the Cardinals and they know they can't give away a divisional game. The Seahawks receivers are feeling some heat and a date with one of the worst pass defenses in football is just what they need. Add in the fact that this is a letdown spot for the Rams, who are coming off a grueling Monday Night Football loss to the 49ers. They played awful for the last 35 minutes of that game and now they are facing an even tougher, more motivated opponent. I don't think the Rams are going to have much of a home field edge - the fans have given up on this St. Louis team - and I don't see St. Louis slowing down the Seahawks. This one looks like 31-13 to me.

3-Unit Play. Take #461 Carolina (+7) over Green Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
I am not overly impressed with the Packers. They look to me like the NFC version of the Patriots. That is not a compliment. The Packers have an amazing, elite quarterback. But the rest of the roster is just OK and there aren't any position groups that really jump off the page at you. The Panthers just find a way to hang around. They scummed out a tie at Cincinnati last week. That's one of the toughest places in the league to play. The week prior they used a huge comeback to beat a quality Bears team. Carolina's entire Cover-2 scheme is set up to hang around in games and keep contests close. I absolutely think they can do that against a Packers team that, outside of one fluke blowout over a bad Minnesota team, hasn't been that impressive this year. This is too many points.

7-Unit Play. Take #464 Baltimore (-7) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
I love the Ravens this week. I don't think their blowout win over the Bucs last week was a fluke and I think that they are capable of doing the exact same thing to the Falcons. Baltimore has been like a kid with a new toy this season. This is the best offensive team and offensive scheme that they have had in a decade. It took them a few weeks to get used to it and to learn how to play with this new toy. But now they have got it figured out and they are rolling. The Ravens hung 38 points on a quality Carolina defense in their last home game and this team has blowout wins over the Steelers, Panthers and Bucs this season. All three of those teams are better than the Falcons. Baltimore has one of the biggest home field advantages in the NFL and you don't have to look very far to find examples where they have just wrecked people. I think they have a chance to drop 40 points again all on their own and I don't think that the Falcons will be able to keep up.

The Falcons are a dumpster fire right now. They entered the regular season with one of the worst rosters in the NFL. And that was before everyone started to get hurt. They have the worst offensive line in football. They have the worst pass rush in football. They have the worst linebackers in football as well as the worst overall back seven in football. Honestly, the only difference between the Falcons and teams like the Jaguars and Raidres is the fact that they have Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. Jones is banged up and Ryan has been completely ineffective on the road. Atlanta has gotten smoked away from home this year, losing to the Bengals (by 14), the Vikings (by 13) and the Giants (by 10) on the road. They are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and they are simply not the same team outside of the Georgia Dome. Atlanta lost by 14 at home against Chicago last week and they just are not playing good football at all.

This is a terrible matchup for Atlanta. They are awful on the road against one of the best home teams in the league. The Falcons have one of the two or three worst defenses in football going up against an offense that is clicking on all cylinders. Atlanta's offense line is a mess and they are going up against one of the top front sevens in the game. Again, this one is just a mismatch and I can see the Ravens unloading. I also have a big play on the 'over' in this one and that's both a hedge and a chance for a this to be a huge score. If Atlanta covers the spread that means they will have to score at least 24 points (pushing it 'over'). If the Falcons completely implode and the Ravens unload on them I can see this game being somewhere in the 38-17 range. Either way, I like the Ravens to stay hot and the Falcons to stay cold as these are two teams headed in opposite directions.

1-Unit Play. Take #468 Detroit (-2.5) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)

4-Unit Play. Take #469 Kansas City (+4) over San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
I tabbed this as a potential big play before a single snap last week. I had a feeling the Chargers were going to struggle with the Raiders (they did) and I had a feeling that this spread would be around 4.5 on Sunday night when the lines were released (it was). So we'll roll with the underdog here in a game I think the Chiefs can win. This team is better than its 2-3 record suggests, taking tough losses at San Francisco and Denver. That makes the Chiefs the much more desperate side coming into this game. They also have divisional revenge after getting swept in this series the past two years. Add to that the fact that Andy Reid is 13-2 SU in his career after a bye week and I like Kansas City to be focused and a very live underdog here. San Diego is an outstanding team. But I don't think they are as good as their record suggests and they may be running out of steam. They've played the Raiders, Jets, Jaguars and Bills - just a superfecta of suck right there - in the last four weeks. So we're getting to the point where we have to wonder if the Chargers are really that good or if they are merely the product of a cupcake schedule. I think that his is a field goal game either way. The Chiefs have the edge on defense and in the running game. The Chargers have the sligth edge at quarterback. But this one should be tight. I'll take the points an call for the upset.

2-Unit Play. Take #473 Arizona (-3.5) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)
No bet against the Raiders is a bad bet. No bet on a Bruce Arians led team is a bad bet. Sometimes it is just that simple. The Raiders are one of the two or three worst teams in football. Tony Sparano can't make up for that overnight. The roster just stinks and they are facing a Cardinals team that has proven it is no joke. Oakland is in somewhat of a letdown spot after their near-miss against the Chargers last week. Now their rookie quarterback is going up against two of the best corners in football and I think that Derek Carr is going to be good for a couple turnovers this week. Arizona is solid and they will take advantage. I don't think that this game is going to be a blowout. But I think that Arizona will do enough to win by between four and eight points and cash this ticket.


This Week's Totals

6-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 49.0 Atlanta at Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 45.0 Cleveland at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 45.0 Kansas City at San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 48.0 Miami at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 19)

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Strike Point Sports
6* Arizona -2.5
4* SD -4.5
3* Lions -2.5

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Allen Eastman 411 plays
Nfl 411 plays:
Colts -3
Arizona -3 1/2

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Bryan Leonard 3*

Seahawks

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wayne root

top play Pinnacle CINCINNATI BENGALS

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Pointwise Phones

3* Kansas City
3* Carolina
3* Miami
3* Indy
3* Pitt
2* Buffalo
2* Jax
2* Dallas

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VegasButcher

Kansas City Chiefs +4

Andy Reid has an excellent record coming off a BYE as a head coach as he typically gets his players well prepared with 2-weeks off. The same should be expected here. Chiefs have played well lately, covering @ DEN, winning @ MIA, destroying Patriots at home, and then playing a close one @ San Fran. By comparison, San Diego has been beating up on OAK, NYJ, BUF, and JAX since their win against the Seahawks. These teams have been playing much different types of opponents lately and we’ll see if that is a factor on Sunday. Chargers have a game @ Denver on Thursday Night coming up, and though I don’t necessarily seem the overlooking a divisional opponent on Sunday, I do expect the game to be close. Both games last year came down to a FG.

New York Giants +6.5

New York got shut-out last week while Dallas went into Seattle and dominated the world champs. Not surprisingly we get an inflated spread. The advanced lines for this one had Dallas at -3.5, so you can see how much it has risen based on just one week. Let’s also not forget that Dallas should have lost to the Rams earlier this year and played an OT game against a mediocre Houston team at home just a few weeks back. This team is also 6-13 ATS as a favorite. Giants couldn’t protect Eli Manning at all last week, but Cowboys rank 30th in ASR (Adjusted Sack Rate) so things should be easier this time around. In addition, Cowboys sport the 30th ranked runD, and I assume Giants will pound the ball on the ground with Williams to keep Dallas O off the field. Finally, you have to assume this is a big let-down spot for the Cowboys. They lost their RT Free for 3-4 weeks and their LT Smith is banged up, though he will play. A drop in efficiency is expected. I see Giants bouncing back and playing better after an embarrassing divisional loss, and expect a close game here.

Arizona Cardinals -3.5

I’m going to play the “Carson Palmer back in Oakland” angle. He is making his return to the city that took a chance on him when he had a falling out with the Bengals, and typically players want to play well against their former employer. Palmer is familiar with the Raiders and some of their personnel, and that could be an advantage for the Cardinals. Oakland played hard last week but failed to get a win, so I see a bit of let-down here as they’ve failed to record consecutive ATS-covers yet this season. Arizona by a TD.

Teaser (6.5 pts): - Seattle Seahawks PK / Baltimore Ravens PK

Backing the Seahawks off a loss, who are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in this spot in the last 6 chances. I also think with Seattle getting rid of a cancer which is supposedly Percy Harvin, the team can rally, show some unity, and play a strong game. Rams are horrific defensively and Seattle should dominate this game.

As far as the Ravens are concerned, they are flat out a much better team than the Falcons. Atlanta has a lot of injury concerns on their O-line and Baltimore’s 8th ranked D should be in control here. I don’t see Atlanta winning on the road in this one.