10-17-14

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::clap::

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Dr. Bob

(312) ***HOUSTON (-7) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars up to -9.5, 1-Star at -10.


***HOUSTON (-7) 31 Temple 15
Houston struggled offensively the first 5 games with John O’Korn at quarterback so coach Tony Levine decided to turn to wide receiver Greg Ward Jr last week. Ward was a change of pace quarterback for the Cougars last season and was an efficient 19 for 29 with no interceptions while averaging 8.6 yards per pass play and running for 202 yards on 41 runs. I speculated last week that Ward’s yards per pass play numbers would drop as a starting quarterback because when he was inserted last season opponents were playing him to run the ball, which made it easier to throw it. Ward has averaged only 5.0 yards on 50 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) but that’s a significant upgrade over O’Korn, who has averaged only 4.7 yppp despite facing teams that would allow 7.3 yppp to an average QB. Ward not only elevated the pass attack last week against a good Memphis defense but he ran for 109 yards as well. Ward also has thrown just 1 inception on 77 career pass attempts while O’Korn had thrown 8 picks this season on 172 passes. Aside from Ward’s running, Houston has a good stable of running backs that all average 6.0 ypr or higher and the Cougars average 6.5 yards per rushing play if you take out O’Korn’s bad rushing numbers. Houston’s offense has been 0.6 yards per play worse than average for the season but they rate at +0.1 yppl with Ward at quarterback (the running component was based on Ward’s 5.7 yards per rushing play career average not his 6.8 yprp average this season, which was skewed by a 64 yard run last week) and the turnovers should drop too. Temple’s defense has been 0.5 yards per play worse than average in 4 games against FBS opponents (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yprp against an average team) and the math projects 448 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Cougars with Ward Jr. at quarterback.

Temple’s sub-par attack, averaging 5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack, is not likely to keep up in this game against a very good Houston defense that’s yielded just 19.2 points per game and 4.4 yppl to a schedule of opponents that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team. The Owls are projected to gain just 290 total yards in this game and overall I favor Houston by 16 ½ points in this game. The adjustments for Ward at quarterback were about 4 ½ points so I would have favored Houston by 12 points without those adjustments. Temple seems better than they actually are because of a +9 turnover margin but Houston is projected to have a 0.7 fewer turnovers than Temple in this game now that the interception prone O’Korn has a headset on instead of a helmet. My math model gives Houston a very profitable 60.7% chance of covering at -7 points (based on the historical performance of my model) and would still be a 55.1% play at -9 ½ points and a profitable 53.4% play at -10. I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (up to -125 odds), for 2-Stars from -7 ½ to -9 ½ points and for 1-Stars at -10 points.

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Today's CFL Picks

Ottawa at Hamilton

The Tiger-Cats host Ottawa on Friday night and come into the contest with an 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 Friday games. Hamilton is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tiger-Cats favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-11 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.


FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (10/15)


Game 491-492: Ottawa at Hamilton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 104.858; Hamilton 119.924
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 15; 41
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 11 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-11 1/2); Under

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BEN BURNS

Friday FEAST! Houston

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Game of the Day: Temple at Houston

Temple Owls at Houston Cougars (-7.5, 51)

The American Athletic Conference's top two defenses will meet in a primetime clash Friday when Temple visits Houston. The host Cougars lead the AAC in total defense while the Owls lead the league - and are ranked fourth nationally - in scoring defense. The Owls have also turned 17 turnovers into a national-best 79 points.

Houston, which has 19 takeaways this season and at least one in 29 straight games, must overcome significant changes on both sides of the ball. Receiver-turned-quarterback Greg Ward Jr. will make his second start at the position after replacing John O'Korn, and the Cougars lost second-leading receiver Daniel Spencer to a knee injury last week in practice. The Houston defense, which is allowing 322.7 yards and 19.2 points, lost junior cornerback Lee Hightower (leg) and senior linebacker Derrick Mathews (knee) to season-ending injuries in last week's win at Memphis.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPNU.

LINE: The Cougars opened as 6-point home favorites and have been bet up to -7.5. The total opened at 48.5 and has been bet up all the way to 51.

INJURY REPORT: Houston - DB Lee Hightower (out for season, leg), LB Derrick Mathews (out for season, knee). Temple - N/A.

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a great night for football at TDECU Stadium with temperatures in the mid 70s and a six mile per hour wind blowing from the south.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Temple is 4-1 on the season, but they've played an extremely weak schedule. The Owls offense has scored 24 points or more in every game, but again, they've played weak competition. Houston is off an unexpected 28-24 win at Memphis last Saturday night as 7.5-point underdogs. The Cougars won that game despite turning the ball over 3 times; they were aided by 5 Memphis turnovers. Houston’s offense should have little trouble moving the ball on Temple, but it is risky to lay 7.5 points with a mediocre team." - Covers Expert Steve Merril



ABOUT TEMPLE (4-1, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U): The Owls, who allow 14.4 points, lead the nation in red-zone defense by allowing just six scores (four touchdowns, two field goals) in 12 trips. Jalen Fitzpatrick has emerged as a consistent target for P.J. Walker (97-of-157 for 1,099 yards and 9 TDs) and leads Temple with 24 catches for 395 yards and a touchdown in each game. Jahad Thomas rushed for 152 yards last week against Tulsa to climb atop Temple's trio of running backs, leading Jamie Gilmore (187 yards, one TD) and Kenneth Harper (113 yards, two TDs) with 258 yards.

ABOUT HOUSTON (3-3, 3-3 ATS, 1-5 O/U): Ward, who made eight appearances last year as the backup quarterback before moving to receiver, gave the Cougars' offense a spark last week and has two rushing touchdowns and one passing on the season. The backfield duo of Kenneth Farrow and Ryan Jackson have combined for 648 rushing yards and six scores while Deontay Greenberry leads the Cougars with 25 catches for 395 yards and two scores. Elandon Roberts will start in place of Mathews while a rotation of players will fill Hightower's role in the secondary.

TRENDS:

* Temple is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.
* Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
* Over is 5-0 in Temple's last five games on fieldturf.
* Under is 4-0 in Houston's last four home games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Almost 59 percent of wagers are backing the road underdogs Temple at +7.5-points.

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DAVID GLISAN SPORTS

(51) Calgary +150
(55) Detroit +110
(59/60) Vancouver/Edmonton Over 5.5 (-105)

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marc lawrence phone plays

TEMPLE

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StatFox Super Situations

CFB | MARSHALL at FLA INTERNATIONAL
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (MARSHALL) dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more in 3 straight games
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

CFB | CLEMSON at BOSTON COLLEGE
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (CLEMSON) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season
86-56 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.6% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

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NCAA Football Game Picks Fresno State at Boise State The Bulldogs head to Boise State tonight to face a Broncos team that is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 games versus Fresno State. Boise State is the pick (-17) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 20 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-17). Here are all of this week's picks.


FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (10/15)


Game 309-310: Fresno State at Boise State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 74.940; Boise State 95.399
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 20 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Boise State by 17; 61
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-17); Over


Game 311-312: Temple at Houston (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 89.927; Houston 94.568
Dunkel Line: Houston by 4 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Temple (+7 1/2); Under

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Today's NHL Picks Detroit at Toronto The Red Wings head to Toronto tonight and come into the contest with an 11-2 record in their last 13 Friday games. Detroit is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105). Here are all of today's picks.


FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST


Game 51-52: Calgary at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.221; Columbus 11.342
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+145); Under


Game 53-54: Florida at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.512; Buffalo 10.092
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-110); Over


Game 55-56: Detroit at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.569; Toronto 11.126
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Over


Game 57-58: Nashville at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.809; Winnipeg 11.712
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Winnipeg (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+105); Under


Game 59-60: Vancouver at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 10.975; Edmonton 9.512
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-140); Over


Game 61-62: Minnesota at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 13.210; Anaheim 12.339
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Under

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Cappers Access

Boise St -17
Temple +7.5

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Friday

Canucks -145

Hamilton -11

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play Fri Anaheim -150

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Hondo

Hondo cashed with the Giants in his NLCS investment Thursday night but gave it back with the Patriots so the deficit held steady at 1,140 carrs.

Friday night: Mr. Aitch is totally overwhelmed by the Boise State-Fresno State matchup. As a result he will put 10 units on the total to go over 63¹/₂.

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Paul Leiner:

2000* CFB Temple +7.5
100* CFB Fresno State +17

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Steve Budin

100 DIME WINNER # 5 IN A ROW

Temple +7.5 buy half point if your line Is 6.5 - 7

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Worlds Worst Picker

Fresno St
Temple

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blasscykwin

Friday, October 17, 2014
CFB

Game #1
Temple @ Houston (9:00 pm EST)
Sunday, October 19, 2014
BW PLAY: 311 TEMPLE +8 (-110) *2 UNITS* (5 Dimes)
BW PLAY: 311 TEMPLE money line +280 *1 UNIT* (5 Dimes)

Game #2
Fresno State @ Boise State (8:00 pm EST)
BW PLAY: 309 FRESNO STATE +17.5 (-115) *5 UNITS* (Bookmaker)

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Allen Eastman
Boise state -17

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WINSPORTSNOW

Friday Football Best Bets Program Report

Over 62 Boise state
Houston-8

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Playbook Database

Fresno State

[golden contender]

T.G.I.F and we have one play a 92% College Football system side up. Last night stop college play on Pittsburgh was a nice winner. Saturday early Top college plays go out today. Free NHL Power Play below.

On Friday the free NHL Power play side is on the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. Game 62 at 10:05 eastern. Anaheim is one of the better teams out West and they are 12-1 since last season if they were on the road and favored in their last game. The Ducks are a solid 29-9 if they allowed 4 or more goals in their last game. Tonight they take on a Minnesota team that is off back to back to back shutout wins and has lost 5 of the last 6 to Anaheim. With the Ducks 10-4 at home off 2+ road games we will take Anaheim here tonight. On Friday we have one play going a 92% College Football system side. There is also a couple of Early Top College Play going on Saturday. Jump on now and start the weekend big. For the free play take Anaheim in the NHL. GC

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Raphael esparza nhl 10/17

5*Ducks-130

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Strike point sports nhl 10/17

4* Ducks-130

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Indian Cowboy
Nhl 10/17 3* Florida-115

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Teddy Covers
Teddy's Friday Night CFB TV Winner
Houston Cougars

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Pick Addict
8:00 PM EST NCAAF
FRESNO STATE VS. BOISE STATE
PICK: BOISE STATE -17 (-110)
RISK: 5 UNITS

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Fezzik
Houston

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Secretbettingtips
Norway
Brann -0.5,1

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Jimmy Boyd

3* Boise St.

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Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

Boise State -17 over Fresno State (Bet Level 3) (Spread Bet) (NCAA College Football) - Game Starts at 8:00 PM EST

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Ecks and Bacon


Ben lee won on Thursday in MLB in the National League Championship Series with the Giants -$125/Cardinals.

For TGIF E&B are heading to College Football and like Temple +7.5/Houston.

Ben lee is 3-0 +$150 for week fifty one 239-265-5 -$3190

"Mr Chalk" is 91-64 -$474 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

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James Jones

2* Boise St -17

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Kelso

50 Units Temple +7.5

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Charlie Sports

500- Houston
500- Fresno under

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Big Jay Dotson

Friday Night Game of Year

1000 - Boise State

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Gabriel DuPont

40 Dimes Temple +7.5

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Al DeMarco

10 Dimes Temple +7.5

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KEVIN'S PLAYS

Tough OT loss Thursday night with Oregon State. No plays for tonight, but we've got 5 picks below for the afternoon games Saturday and a few more plays will be sent out Saturday afternoon for the later games.
2 UNIT = Tulane @ Central Florida - [397] TULANE +20 (-106)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.89 units)
2 UNIT = Baylor @ West Virginia - [325] OVER 80 POINTS (-108)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)
2 UNIT = Akron @ Ohio - [319] AKRON -3 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)
2 UNIT = UCLA @ California - [363] UCLA -7 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)
2 UNIT = Clemson @ Boston College - [376] BOSTON COLLEGE +5 (-108)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)
Cheers,
Kevin

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FantasySportsGametime

FRIDAY FOOTBALL

5000* Play Fresno State +17 over Boise State (TOP NCAA PLAY)

Boise State has lost 9 of the last 13 games against the spread when playing in the 2nd half of the season and they have lost 9 of the last 12 games against the spread after having won four or five of the last six games.


5000* Play Temple +8 over Houston (TOP NCAA PLAY)

Temple has covered the spread in 24 of the last 40 games when the total posted is between 49.5 and 56 points and they have covered the spread in 50 of the last 84 games when playing in the month of October.

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XpertPicks

FRIDAY

TOP NCAA FOOTBALL PLAYS



Play Temple +8 over Houston----RISK 35% OF YOUR BANKROLL

9:00 PM EST

Temple has won four of the last five games and they have covered the spread in 9 of the last 13 road games. Temple has covered the spread in 7 of the last 11 games when playing in weeks five through nine and they are averaging 43 points on offense in their last three games.




Play Fresno State +17 over Boise State----RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL

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BeatYourBookie


FRIDAY

10* Play Fresno State +17 over Boise State (Top NCAA Play)

Fresno State is 17-4 SU when playing after the 1st month of the season
Fresno State is 17-3 SU vs. conference opponents the last three seasons


10* Play Temple +8 over Houston (Top NCAA Play)

Temple is 9-1 ATS in road games when the total posted is between 49.5 and 52 points
Temple is 4-0 ATS when playing as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points

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WinningAngle

FRIDAY

NBA BASKETBALL----PRESEASON

Play Charlotte +3.5 over Washington (NBA TOP PLAY)
Play Detroit +1 over Orlando (NBA TOP PLAY)

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Winning Angle Football

FRIDAY CANADIAN FOOTBALL

Play Hamilton -11.5 over Ottawa (TOP CFL PLAY)

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Winning Angle Football

FRIDAY

Play Fresno State +17.5 over Boise State (NCAA)
8:00 PM EST

Fresno State has won 17 of the last 21 games when playing after the 1st month of the season and they have won 9 of the last 10 games coming off a loss against the spread in their last game.Fresno State has won 17 of the last 20 games vs. conference opponents and they have won 11 of the last 14 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game.


Play Temple +8 over Houston (NCAA)
9:00 PM EST

Temple has covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 road games when the total posted is between 49.5 and 52 points and they have covered the spread in 4 consecutive road games when playing as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. Temple has covered the spread in 17 of the last 25 games coming off a conference home win in their last game and they are averaging 38 points a game on offense this season.

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Brandon Lang

25 Dimes - Temple +7 1/2 over Houston

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SPORTS BETTING PROF

Temple +8.5*

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Locksmith Sports

CFB
3* Houston -8.5 -110
2* Fresno State +17 -110

NHL:
1* Anaheim -126 -110

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Derek Hayes

2* Pistons -1
1* Hamilton -6.5 (1st Half - CFL)

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Major1Sports

5* Houston
2* Boise State

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Ben Burns

9* Personal Favorite

Columbus Blue Jackets -160

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Northcoast

marquee

houston/temple over 51

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Lt lock

Houston u.

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Wayne root
sports unlimited
millionaires club
sports bank

all pass

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Vegas Runner/NFAC

(655) DALLAS MAVS +3.5 (nfac $200)

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Kyle Hunter

Temple / Houston Over

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SportsBoss

3* Temple

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Las Vegas Pipeline

4* Columbus

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Big Al's plays for Sat. All 3*
W Va,
Mass,
Oregon,
Northwestern,
Maryland,
BG,
NC,
opinions
Texas Tech, vir, Colo, Geo, Ohio State, Louie Tech

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Chris Jordan

Today's Winner:

My 500♦ Winner is the FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS in their Mountain West clash with the Boise State Broncos

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Craig Davis

Friday's Action...


20 Dime Winner for Friday is Temple and Houston