10-4-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

::clap::

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman



3-Unit Play. Take #304 Florida International (+6.5) over Florida Atlantic (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
This is not a big rivalry. But it is still a big game for these programs in Florida. And I like the home underdog. FIU is a bad team. But a win over their rivals would make their season. FIU has revenge for a 21-6 loss last year. They were a big 28-point underdog in that game. But they hung tough. FIU has won two of the last three meetings and they are 3-0 ATS in those three games. The home team has won four of the last six meetings. I think that the Panthers will pull the upset on Thursday night. Take the points.



4-Unit Play. Take #342 North Carolina (+2.5) over Virginia Tech (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
I like the home underdog here. Virginia Tech has been bad since beating Ohio State on the road. They are 0-3 ATS and lost to East Carolina and Georgia Tech. Both of those games were at home. Now they have to go back on the road and North Carolina needs a win. They are coming off a blowout loss at Clemson. But the Heels were only outgained by 50 in that one. The home team has won three straight in this series and the underdog is 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Hokies are just 8-20 ATS after a win and the Tar Heels are 10-4 ATS after a loss. They will bounce right back and they will pull the upset on the public once again.



3-Unit Play. Take #347 Massachusetts (+3.5) over Miami, OH (2:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
Miami, OH is just 9-19 ATS in its last 28 games. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. This is not a strong team or a strong program. I like how this Massachusetts team is playing. They beat Miami last year and they are 2-0 ATS in the only two meetings. They are 0-5 on the season. But they have several very close losses. They nearly beat Colorado, Vanderbilt and Bowling Green. This team could be 3-2 right now instead of 0-5. I think they get their first win of the season here.



4-Unit Play. Take #364 Colorado State (-15) over Tulsa (3 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
This Colorado State team is really improved. They have won three of four games this year and have wins on the road over Boston College and Colorado. Coach Jim McElwain really has this team going in the right direction. Tulsa has lost three straight. They were blown out by 29 points in their only road game of the season. That was on the road against Florida Atlantic. Tulsa lost a heartbreaker in overtime last week. That game was at home against Texas State. Now they have to go on the road and I think that loss is still on their minds. The Rams have won seven of their last nine games if you go back to the 2013 season. They took advantage of their extra practices for their bowl game and they look like a very confident team. I think they are setting up for a blowout here. Colorado State lost at Tulsa last year. They will turn things around and win this one. CSU is 5-1 ATS in this series going all the way back to 1988. They will cover again.



5-Unit Play. Take #370 USC (-11.5) over Arizona State (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
This is my College Football Game of the Week. These two teams are ranked. But I only think that one of them deserves to be in the Top 25. The Sun Devils lost big last Thursday night and were blown out by UCLA. That game hurt because it was at home and it was on national television. I think they will get blown out again here. USC lost big down in Arizona State last year. They will want to get revenge. Arizona State is still without its quarterback Taylor Kelly. They are not the same team without him. The home team has won four straight in this series. And the favorite has easily covered the last three meetings. USC is coming off a blowout home win over Oregon State. They will do the same thing here.



3-Unit Play. Take #374 Air Force (+4) over Navy (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
I love the home underdog in this one. These are two option teams. And these are two big rivals from the service academies. Air Force has lost to Navy the last two years and they will want to turn that around. This has been a very even series the past five years with Navy winning three times and Air Force winning twice. Navy is coming off two bad losses. They lost as home favorites to Rutgers and Western Kentucky the last two weeks. Now they are going on the road. Air Force has won the last two weeks and that includes a major upset last week over Boise State. Air Force has a chance to make it three in a row and go to 4-1 on the season. I like their momentum.



4-Unit Play. Take #407 UAB (+9.5) over Western Kentucky (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
This is the first time that WKU has been a favorite all season long. I do not think they will be good in this role. This team has lost two of its last three games. They are trying to jump up from the Sun Belt to Conference USA. UAB played Mississippi State tough this year and only lost by 13. They also blew out another Sun Belt team in Troy. This should be a back and forth game. Neither team has a strong defense. There will be a lot of points and this one should be a wild game. But I think it will be a close one. I think the Blazers could win this game. WKU is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games and just 1-4 ATS after a win. Take the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports


4 Unit Play. #356 Take Over 77.5 in Buffalo Bulls @ Bowling Green Falcons (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN 3) If a total is this high it must be for a reason. Both teams give up a ton of points and score a lot points. Buffalo has gone over the posted total in their last 5 road games. Bowling Green has gone over the posted total in 6 of their last 7 games overall.



4 Unit Play. #368 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish +2.5 over Stanford Cardinal (Saturday 3:30 pm NBC) Actually surprised that Stanford opened as a favorite in this game. Notre Dame is undefeated and played a decent schedule thus far, and they have not had a competitive game thus far in 2014. Stanford already lost at home to a so-so USC team, and they are vastly overrated this year and in this game. I also believe that Notre Dame has a major edge in coaching with Brian Kelly compared to David Shaw, as the latter tightens up in close games with a very conservative gameplan. Notre Dame has covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 nonconference games. The defense of the Irish has made great strides under new DC Brian VanGorder, and expect that to continue this week.



6 Unit Play. #375 Take Oklahoma Sooners -5 over TCU Horned Frogs (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) TOP College Football Game of the Weekend. Oklahoma is just a much more complete team than is TCU. The Frogs have had very little success since joining the Big 12, and they have played a ridiculously easy schedule thus far in 2014. I never have and never will trust Trevone Boykin to make big plays for the offense and fully expect his true colors to shine in this game. Oklahoma has won 4 of the last 5 matchups with TCU. The Sooners eventually wore down West Virginia two weeks ago in Morgantown, and that is how I see this game going as well. TCU will have some moments, but this is not the game that Oklahoma loses and drops out of the Final Four picture. Oklahoma has covered 7 of their last 8 games overall. TCU is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games. TCU is not ready for this major step up in class.



4 Unit Play. #400 Take Rutgers Scarlet Knights -2 over Michigan Wolverines (Saturday 7 pm BTN) I really thought Michigan would bounce back last week but that was certainly not the case. We now have to kick them while they are way down and Rutgers is a team that has the firepower to accomplish such a task. Michigan just cannot score points and only has one playmaker on offense. Rutgers has a much better quarterback and this is the home game they need to put this team on the map in the Big 10. Michigan is 7-18 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 road games. Rutgers has covered 6 of their last 7 games.



4 Unit Play. #416 Take Boise State Broncos -4 over Nevada Wolf Pack (Saturday 10:30 pm CBSSN) By now you realize we have a great feel for this Nevada team cashing with them last week for our College Football Game of the Year. Boise State is coming off an embarrassing loss to Air Force but if you turn over the football 7 times you will not beat anybody. That being said, I expect Boise State to bounce back in this game and I feel it is the right decision to start Grant Hedrick in this game. If Boise State can avoid turnovers they will win this game, something they have done against Nevada in 13 of the last 14 meetings. Nevada is 3-1 on the season but it is a little bit of fools gold since their offense has been terrible being outgained by 124 yards per game against their 3 FCS Opponents (Arizona, Washington State, and San Jose State). Their offense did nothing against San Jose State except for a few key runs and that will not get it done against a team as strong as Boise State. Nevada has a strong defense that played outstanding against Washington State, but Arizona had their way against them and so did San Jose State. The Spartans just got burned with costly turnovers. Sooner or later the stats will tell the story and this is a game that Boise State needs badly as does new coach Bryan Harsin. Boise State is 20-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 29 games following a loss. Nevada is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games played during October.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ralph Esparza
VSI

8* San Jose State -10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

7* Florida State -37.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NORTHCOAST:


Big dog COL +7 and +250 ML
Northcoast Big Dogs


1/2 Unit ATS & 1/2 Unit on the Money Line


Northwestern +8
UL-Monroe +11
New Mexico St. +17.5
Idaho +17.5
Texas +17
N Carolina St. +14.5
UAB +9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF Tech Trends - Week 6
By Bruce Marshall

NFL Tech Trends

Friday, October 3

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

LOUISVILLE at SYRACUSE
Cards just 4-6-1 as visiting chalk since 2012.

Slight to Cuse, based on team trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at FRESNO STATE
FSU now 6-12-1 last 18 on board since late 2012. SDSU 8-4 vs. spread last 12 away from Qualcomm.

SDSU, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE at BYU
Ags had covered five straight in series prior to LY's 31-14 loss at Logan . Cougs no covers first two at home TY after 14-8 mark in role previous four seasons. Utags no covers first four on board TY, and just 1-5 as dog for Matt Wells.

Slight to BYU, based on recent trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BYU hosts Utah State

UTAH STATE AGGIES (2-2) at BYU COUGARS (4-0)
Line & Total: BYU -21

No. 18 BYU Cougars hosts Utah State Friday night in an attempt to maintain a flawless record for the 2014 campaign.

Utah State has had a disappointing start to the season and while the school has earned wins as large favorites against both Idaho State and Wake Forest, it has failed to cover a spread in four contests this season. Last week the Aggies traveled to Arkansas State as 2.5-point underdogs and were unable to pull off an upset as they absorbed a 21-14 overtime loss despite outgaining their opponent 413-316 and forcing four turnovers. Over the first four games, they rank in the bottom half of the nation in nearly every category, both offensively and defensively, and will have a very tough matchup this week.

BYU has been impressive thus far with four consecutive SU victories, but has failed to cover the spread in each of its past two contests. In the most recent game against Virginia on Sept. 20, the Cougars overcame an early 10-3 deficit to win 41-33 as 16-point favorites, as they were outgained 519-332 in total yards while forcing two turnovers in the contest. These two programs have played some rather low-scoring games over the past two years with BYU coming away with a 31-14 victory as a 5.5-point underdog last season and winning 6-3 back in 2012 as a 6.5-point favorite. Trends show that Utah State is an impressive 10-3 ATS (77%) over the past three seasons after playing its previous game on the road, while the Cougars are 8-2 ATS (80%) after failing to cover the spread in two of their past three contests in the same timeframe.

As far as injuries are concerned, the Aggies may be without starting QB Chuckie Keeton (knee) and HB Joe Hill (ankle) who are questionable for this contest. BYU has top WR Jordan Leslie (ankle), HB Algernon Brown (ankle) and LB Bronson Kaufusi (ankle) all listed as questionable for the matchup.

Utah State distributes its offense between the running attack (154 YPG) and passing game (215 YPG) while ranking 94th among FBS schools in total yards (369 YPG). The Aggies have scored a meager 24.3 PPG (95th in nation) behind the arms of QBs Chuckie Keeton (426 pass yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) and Darell Garretson (389 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT). Garretson has played the bulk of the past two contests with Keeton out, and has played well, going 27-for-46 (59%) with 268 yards (5.8 YPA) and 2 TD (1 INT) in the overtime loss last week.

The running back situation has been cloudy thus far with three different backs getting 20 or more attempts with HB Rashad Hall (141 rush yards, 1 TD) leading the way with 33 attempts (4.3 YPC). WR JoJo Natson has also been a big-play guy out of the backfield with 158 yards on a mere 17 attempts (9.3 YPC). Natson has also been a big part of the passing game with 172 yards on 20 catches (8.6 avg) and a touchdown while WR Hunter Sharp (305 rec. yards, 2 TD) has been the top option through the air. The defense has not looked great while allowing 25.8 PPG and giving up a fairly low 334.8 YPG (32nd in FBS). LB Zach Vigil (37 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) is the leader of the defense that will need to perform, especially with fellow all-MWC LB Kyler Fackrel out for the season.

BYU ranks among the top-50 FBS schools in total offense (449.3 YPG) this season thanks to an impressive performance so far from its ground game (230.3 YPG, 26th in FBS). QB Taysom Hill (876 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) has improved from last season, as he is completing 66.1% of his passes for 7.2 YPA and was a solid 13-for-23 (56.5%) with 187 yards and 2 TD (0 INT) in the team's last game two weeks ago. Hill's biggest threat does not come from his arm though, but rather his legs that have helped him gain 428 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) and 7 TD through the first four games. He leads the team in rushing, while HB Jamaal Williams (296 pass yards, 3 TD) is the top running back, averaging 4.9 YPC in three contests. Williams performed exceptionally well two weeks ago against Houston as he picked up 139 yards on 28 attempts (5.0 YPC) and two touchdowns.

WR Jordan Leslie (227 rec. yards, 1 TD) is the top guy in the passing game and could miss this game, leaving WR Mitch Matthews (134 rec. yards, 2 TD) as the No. 1 option. The defense has been impressive this season, as it has allowed 18.8 PPG (25th in FBS) while giving up 364.3 YPG. DB Craig Bills (26 tackles, 1 INT) and LB Alani Fua (24 tackles, 1 sack) have looked impressive amongst a defense that has proven to be full of playmakers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Danny Sheridan

Mississippi

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEN BURNS

BREAKFAST CLUB Old Dominion

3 GAME
Texas
northwestern
tcu

BLUE MARLIN Georgia

Personal Favorite Auburn

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SportsLocksmith

NCAAF 10/4:
Chairmans Play:

Colorado State -18 -110 6* (GAME OF THE YEAR IN NCAAF)
(Game starts at 3:00 PM Eastern Saturday 10/4)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

3 Units Colorado St -18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

8* Utah +13.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik

Notre Dame
Akron
Mississippi St.
ILL/Purdue Under
Colorado State/Tulsa Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob

***AKRON (-23) 43 Eastern Michigan 9
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 358 Over/Under 49.5
Sometimes teams are so bad that the odds makers can’t make the spread high enough. Eastern Michigan appears to be such a team. Eastern Michigan opened the season with a 31-28 win over Morgan State but the Eagles were favored by 25 ½ points in that game and Morgan State is about 35 points worse than an average FBS team. What followed were 3 losses by a combined score of 17-155. I realize that two of those losses were to good teams Florida and Michigan State and the Eagles did cover in their 3-21 loss at Old Dominion, but that loss should have been worse and the game rating on that Old Dominion game was 29.5 points worse than average. Most alarming about that game is that their offense is so bad that they only scored 3 points against a bad Old Dominion defense. Overall, Eastern Michigan has been outgained by an average of 215 yards at just 3.3 yards per play to 503 yards at 6.9 yppl by 4 teams whose average rating is actually 2 points worse than an average FBS team.

Eastern Michigan’s offense is among the worst I’ve ever seen, averaging just 3.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl against an average team – and their numbers would be even worse if you only used their stats against their opponent’s starting defense. Akron’s defense has been 0.3 yppl better than average, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team, and the Zips’ stop unit is 0.7 yppl better than the average defensive rating of the Eagles’ opponents. Eastern Michigan has only averaged 12 points per game and they’re not likely to reach that low number today against a team that’s allowed just 19.8 points per game and shutout the only other really bad offense they’ve faced (a 41-0 win over Howard, who actually has a higher rated offense than Eastern Michigan). Akron did have one bad defensive game, allowing 48 points to Marshall’s potent attack, but the Zips also allowed an average of just 16.5 points in road games at Penn State and Pittsburgh, so they’ve mostly been very good.

The Akron offense is 0.5 yppl worse than average but the Zips should have pretty good field position most of this game and my model projects 518 total yards at 6.2 yppl for that unit in this game against a horrible Eastern Michigan defense that’s given up 6.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense team.

I mentioned that there are some teams that are just so bad that they can’t make the number high enough. Well, Eastern Michigan applies to a negative 25-73-1 ATS situation that plays against really bad teams as road dogs of 21 points or more. I won bets going against Eastern Michigan in that angle twice last season – both 39 point losses to Northern Illinois and Toledo. My math model gives Akron a 58.0% chance of covering based solely on the math and the situation applying to Eastern Michigan enhances our chances. Also, teams that allowed more than 60 points and scored fewer than 28 points in their previous game are just 15-41-2 ATS as road underdogs of less than 50 points. I’ll take Akron in a 3-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -25 and for 1-Star up to -27 points.



***KANSAS STATE (-12 ½) 43 Texas Tech 20
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 360 Over/Under 68.0
We have a few things going for us in this game. Not only does Kansas State qualify as a math play at -14 points or less but the Wildcats apply to a very good 95-29 ATS home momentum situation while Texas Tech applies to a very negative 57-127-2 ATS situation. Those are two of my two most reliable angles and the record is 7-1 ATS for the home team when they both apply to the same game. Texas Tech was a in a very good situation last week (a 43-9-1 ATS situation applied to them) and they managed to get the final touchdown to cover in a 35-45 loss at Oklahoma State. An inexperienced defense (just 4 returning starters) continues to be a major problem for Texas Tech, as the Red Raiders have allowed an average of 39 points on 459 total yards at 5.7 yards per play to a schedule of opponents that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Those aren’t horrible numbers, but they’re not good by major conference standards and my math model projects 495 yards at 6.3 yppl for a better than average Kansas State offense.

I’ll assume that Texas Tech will have quarterback Davis Webb behind center, as he’s practiced this week in full pads despite a dislocated shoulder in his non-throwing arm. I’ll even assume that the injury will have no ill effects and the Red Raiders’ pass heavy attack rates at 0.6 yards per play better than average with Webb at the controls (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team). This isn’t a perfect matchup for a Kansas State defense that excels as defending the run but the Wildcats have been 1.0 yppl better than average defensively even though opponents tend to throw more against them. My model projects a modest 5.4 yppl for Texas Tech in this game but the Red Raiders will run a lot of plays and are predicted to gain 407 total yards.

Overall, the math model gives Kansas State a 56% chance of covering after factoring in their projected edge in turnovers and far superior special teams, so we have a combination of a math play with two very strong situations that all point towards the Wildcats covering. I’ll take Kansas State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less, for 2-Stars up to -16 points and for 1-Star at -16 ½ points.


**Buffalo (+5 ½) 40 BOWLING GREEN 37
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 355 Over/Under 76.5
These two teams have been all offense and no defense this season with Buffalo averaging 34 points and allowing 34 points per game and Bowling Green averaging 38 points and allowing 44 points per game despite allowing just 7 points in a win over VMI. This game could come down to whichever has the ball last and I certainly don’t mind taking the points with what appears to be the better team based on my ratings. Bowling Green has put up some big offensive numbers (502 yards per game) because the Falcons play at such a fast pace, but they’ve actually been 0.1 yards per play worse than average this season – averaging 6.0 yppl against a schedule of teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. The offense has been 0.2 yppl worse than average in 4 games since James Knapke took over at quarterback after veteran starter Matt Johnson was lost after just one game. That’s not much of a difference from a yards per play perspective but Johnson was an accurate passer that threw just 7 interceptions in 405 attempts as a starter the last two seasons while Knapke has already thrown 6 picks in 191 passes (3.1%) and that trend appears likely to continue given how many passes opponents have gotten their hands on that haven’t been picked off.

Buffalo has the better attack, as the Bulls have been 0.3 yppl better than average through 5 games, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. Veteran quarterback Joe Licata has been consistently good, averaging 7.0 yards per pass play or higher in all 5 games, including against a very good Baylor defense. Licata also isn’t as turnover prone as his counterpart, having thrown just 15 interceptions in 739 career pass attempts (2.0%).

Defensively both teams have been equally bad, as Bowling Green 7.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team while Buffalo has given up 6.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defense. Both teams aren’t actually as bad as those numbers, as Bowling Green’s stats are skewed by the 10.0 yard per play they gave up to Wisconsin while Buffalo’s stats are skewed by the 8.6 yppl they allowed to Baylor. Buffalo also isn’t going to continue to give up 19.4 yards per completion, which is basically impossible over the course of a season. The Bulls do play a style of defense that limits completions (just 52.0% completions allowed last year and only 49.6% allowed this season) but does allow teams to beat them over the top, allowing 14.6 yards per catch over the 3 years under their current defensive coordinator. Buffalo’s current 19.4 ypc is 6.4 standard deviations away from the national mean of 12.0 ypc and it’s 4.1 standard deviations away from Buffalo’s 3 year average, making it very unlikely (basically a 0% chance of continuing to be that bad) that teams will continue to average 19 yards a catch against them. I decided that it was reasonable to use the 15.6 ypc that Buffalo has allowed since the beginning of last season and making that adjustment would result in the Bulls being 0.9 yppl worse than average defensively. Even suggesting that Buffalo will allow 15.6 ypc going forward is a stretch given that only 5 out of 1225 teams have allowed 15.6 ypc or more over the course of an entire season since 2004 (16.6 ypc is the highest). But, I prefer to be cautious in my adjustments and 15.6 ypc seemed reasonable given Buffalo’s higher than normal ypc under their current coaching staff.

Adjusting for Bowling Green’s variance in rushing yards allowed (due to the 648 rushing yards at 11.4 yards per run they allowed to Wisconsin) would result in the Falcons’ defense being 1.2 yppl worse than average. Buffalo’s defense was 0.2 yppl better than Bowling Green’s defense before adjusting for the variance and they rate at 0.3 yppl better after the adjustments. Not only is Buffalo a bit better than Bowling Green on both offense and defense but I think Buffalo’s defensive style of play will work well against the Falcons’ style of attack. Bowling Green likes to control the ball with a no huddle offense full of short passes and Knapke doesn’t throw deep very often, which is evident in his low 10.4 yards per completion average. Buffalo’s problem is getting beat over the top but the Bulls only allow 50% completions and they should be able to limit Bowling Green’s aerial attack unless Knapke suddenly starts connecting on more deep passes. My model projects 6.8 yppl for Buffalo and 6.7 yppl for Bowling Green and there figures to be a lot of plays run in this game, which should lead to a lot of scoring. While Buffalo has a slight edge in yards per play, even on the road, and in projected turnovers, the Falcons have an advantage in special teams, which has been a problem for the Bulls. However, overall the math model gives Buffalo a 56.3% chance of covering based solely on the math and the chances are enhanced by a 46-108 ATS situation that applies to Bowling Green. I’ll take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 1-Star down to +3 points.



**WEST VIRGINIA (-26) 51 Kansas 16 - **OVER (54 ½)
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 336 Over/Under 52.5
The Charlie Weis era is over at Kansas but the Clint Bowen era doesn’t figure to start out any better. West Virginia had a week off last week to lick their wounds after a 33-45 loss to a very good Oklahoma team and the 2-2 Mountaineers will take no team for granted. Playing Kansas will seem like a walk in the park after facing the likes of Alabama (a competitive 23-33 loss), Maryland (a 3 point road win) and Oklahoma. The Mounties’ offense will have an especially easy time of hit today. It’s not that the Kansas defense is bad, since the Jayhawks are actually not much worse than average defensively, but rather that the level of competition will be so much easier for a potent West Virginia attack. The Mountaineers averaged 32 points on 540 yards at 6.3 yards per play in 3 FBS games against 3 very good defensive teams that would combine to allow just 4.7 yppl to an average attack. The Kansas defense has allowed 5.8 yards per play to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense. I actually rate the Jayhawks’ defense at just 0.4 yppl worse than average since the 10.1 yards per pass play that they allowed in their opener to SE Missouri State is most likely an aberration. However, I do expect West Virginia’s Clint Trickett to average close 10 yards per pass play today, as he’s averaged 8.3 yards per pass play (including sacks) against 4 teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. The Kansas defense would allow 6.9 yppp on the road to an average quarterback so it’s certainly not a stretch to project Trickett to average close to 10 yards per pass play given that he’s averaged 8.3 yppp and is facing a team that is 1.3 yppp worse than the FBS teams he’s faced thus far. My math model projects West Virginia to gain 659 total yards in this game (even after adjusting Kansas’ defensive rating), which is not that crazy when you consider they’ve averaged 540 yards against 3 very good defensive teams.

The Kansas offense has averaged just 15.3 points and 5.0 yards per play this season against a slightly worse than average slate of opposing defenses that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack and today they face that same level of defense, as West Virginia would also allow 5.8 yppl to an average offensive team. I do expect Kansas to have success running the ball in this game given that West Virginia’s defense weakness is in their run defense (5.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yprp against an average team). The problem for the Jayhawks is that they’ll have to throw the ball when they get behind and Kansas has averaged just 4.7 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team) while West Virginia has been 0.7 yppp better than average defending the pass. Kansas is projected to run for 235 yards but for just 353 yards at 4.6 yards per play. That won’t be enough to keep up with West Virginia’s potent attack.

Overall, the math favors West Virginia by 34 ½ points with a total of 67 points. The math model points toward plays on both West Virginia and the Over and I’ll split the bet into 2-Stars on West Virginia and 2-Stars on the Over. Kansas would probably have to score at least 17 points to cover the spread and they score 17 points or more then the game will likely go over the total since I don’t see how West Virginia will score less than 40 points given that they averaged 37.5 points per game against a schedule of teams that are 0.8 yards per play better defensively than Kansas. I’ll take West Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -28 points or less and I’ll play 2-Stars on the OVER at 58 points or less and for 1-Star up to 59 points. If the line on West Virginia moves higher than 28 points for a no play then add a Star to the Over as long as it still qualifies as a play.


*Georgia State (+17) 30 UL LAFAYETTE 39
Sat Oct-04-2014 at 04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 365 Over/Under 64.5
UL Lafayette was the overwhelming preseason pick to win the Sun Belt title with 3rd year starting quarterback Terrance Broadway and explosive RB Elijah McGuire returning along with 6 other offensive starters and 9 defensive starters. Thing haven’t gone according to plan for the Ragin’ Cajuns, as the offense has been far from explosive and the defense has been horrible. The loss of big play receiver Jamal Robinson for the last 2 ½ games helps explain part of the offensive woes and Robinson is scheduled to return to action this week. Robinson has averaged 10.3 yards per pass thrown to him since the start of last season and his return projects to an increase of 0.5 yards per pass play, which is about 1 ½ points. However, Broadway has averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and he was 1.2 yppp worse than average in the 1 ½ games in which Robinson was healthy, averaging 6.7 yppp against teams that would allow 7.9 yppp before Robinson was injured. Even though Broadway was no better this season with Robinson than he’s been without him, I’ll assume that to be variance and will project a 0.5 yppp increase for Broadway in this game. That would get Lafayette up to average offensively and the Ragin’ Cajuns should have a very good offensive game against a bad Georgia State defense that’s allowed 6.0 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average just 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team. My math model projects 505 total yards at 6.9 yppl for UL Lafayette in this game.

However, that isn’t likely to be enough offense to distance themselves from a very capable Georgia State offense that has been slightly better than average this season. The Panthers have averaged 30.3 points on 462 yards at 6.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack, and they’ve scored 31 points or more in their 3 games against bad defensive teams Abilene Christian, New Mexico State, and Air Force. UL Lafayette’s defense is actually worse than the average of those 3 teams, as the Ragin’ Cajuns have surrendered 36 points per game on 471 yards at 6.6 yppl to 4 teams that would average just 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. Those numbers include the 6 points and 4.0 yppl that they gave up to a horrible Southern offense in their opener and ULL has allowed over 500 total yards in each of their 3 games against FBS teams, including 48 points on 533 yards at 7.8 yppl to a mediocre Louisiana Tech offense. I’ve downgraded Georgia State’s offense due to the injury to leading rusher Kyler Neal, who joins former lead back Krysten Hammon on the sideline. Those two both averaged 5.2 ypr and the rest of the backs have combined for just 3.3 ypr, although against tougher competition since Neal and Hammon got the bulk of the carries against horrible defensive teams Abilene Christian and New Mexico State. It’s doubtful that the new running backs will be as bad as they’ve been, but I’ll assume they will be and that results in a decline of 0.8 yards per rushing play and 0.4 yards per play from Georgia State’s offensive rating. The Panthers are still just 0.3 yppl worse than average while UL Lafayette’s defense is 1.2 yppl worse than average and Georgia State is projected to rack up 467 yards at 6.3 yppl, which should get them around 30 points even if they continue to struggle in special teams (which costs them field position).

My math favors UL Lafayette by just 12 ½ points and the Ragin’ Cajuns apply to a negative 18-55 ATS first conference game angle that adds to Georgia State’s chances of covering. The Panthers have also proven to be a pesky underdogs, as evidenced by their perfect 8-0 ATS mark as a dog of more than 14 points since joining the FBS ranks last season. I’ll take Georgia State in a 1-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Davis

7*Florida State -38
5*Mississippi +6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Victor king

4 notre dame
3 northwestern
2 air force

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joey Cassano

Nevada +4
North Carolina +2.5
UAB +9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CaptainsPlays

1 Unit Northwestern +10
1 Unit Kentucky +5.5
2 Unit Pitt +4.5
2 Unit Michigan +4
2 Unit UAB +14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc lawrence playbook data play

miami fla

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WIN OR LOSE SPORTS BETTING

Bigger plays in Bold


319 MIA FL +1.5
321 N TEX +12
322 UN Ind /N Tex 57.5
325 OHIO ST -7
331 PITT +6
342 NC +2.5
351 SC -3
351 OV SC / Kent 56
358 AKRON -22
360 K ST -14
364 COLO ST -17
370 USC -12
378 TENN -2.5
383 ALA -4
398 TEX ST -17
400 RUTGERS -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves
By JASON LOGAN

College football action is picking up with Saturday just around the corner. We talk to Jay Rood, Director of Race and Sports at MGM properties in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves on the Week 6 board and where those odds could end up come kickoff:

Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi State Bulldogs – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5

This SEC showdown opened with oddsmakers on the fence, but wiseguys hit Mississippi State hard early in the week and pushed this spread as many as 2.5 points. Rood, however, doesn’t expect a move to the key number of three before the noon ET kickoff.

“The ticket count is fairly even, with a little lean to Texas A&M. But the sharps are all on Mississippi State,” Rood tells Covers. “Hard to say what the public will do now. Depending on where this spread moves, we could have sharps coming in late and laying the favorite.”

SMU Mustangs at East Carolina Pirates – Open: -34.5, Move: -41.5

The cat is out of the bag on East Carolina, which seems to be the mightiest of the mid-major programs. Sharps were all over the Pirates in the opening weeks of the season but now the public has caught on and has moved this spread as much as a touchdown at online books.

“Sharp action laid the big number and the public continues to bet East Carolina,” says Rood. “Everyone is keenly aware of ECU now, they’re not an undercover story now. So we will be needing the Ponies in a big way Saturday, probably need them for two scores. And the way they’ve played recently, they could be hard pressed to do that.”

Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats – Open: +10, Move: +7

Some markets have moved the spread for this Big Ten battle as much as a field goal, while MGM properties opened Wisconsin -9 and are now dealing -8. All the money is on Northwestern, which is a change of pace for the Badgers’ recent games, in which Wisconsin was the overwhelming choice for bettors.

“They’re definitely all over Northwestern,” Rood says of the wiseguys. “This game is dropping as we speak. The home dog is getting all the action, from the sharp perspective. However, it’s all Wisconsin on parlays and teasers.”

Kansas Jayhawks at West Virginia Mountaineers – Open: -24, Move: -28

The firing of Kansas coach Charlie Weis has sparked money against the Jayhawks in Week 6. It’s a tough call whether or not KU will be better or worse without Weis – it can’t get much worse, can it?

“It’s literally all West Virginia money from everywhere – sharps and squares,” says Rood, “Everyone is calling for a lopsided affair. I sometimes look at these situations and expect some extra motivation (from the team that fired its coach). But I just don’t know in this case?”

LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers – Open: -9, Move: -7.5

This SEC matchup is the big game on the Week 5 schedule, and it looks like Auburn is the popular play even though the line has moved as much as 1.5 points toward LSU, pointing the finger to sharp money. According to Rood, there haven’t been a lot of tickets written on this game yet, but the ones that have come in are substantial.

“We have some decent-sized tickets on this. It’s going to be a pretty high dollar amount game. We’ll write some business on this one,” he says. “Sharps could bring this one down and the public could keep playing it. We could get some decent two-way action on this but if sharps keep chopping it down, we could find ourselves in a spot where we get sided on eight.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Essential Week 6 college football betting tidbits

There is plenty of Top 25 action in Week 6 of the college football schedule. If you're having trouble keeping track of it all, here are some essential betting tidbits for all of those ranked matchups:

(18) Ohio State Buckeyes at Maryland Terrapins

* The Buckeyes offense is running on full cylinders tallying 380 rushing yards and 330 passing yards in their last game. This marks only the fourth time in school history the team topped 300 yards in both those categories in one game.

* Maryland will try and continue defensive adjustments from last week to slow down Ohio State's rushing attack. "We wanted to play very aggressive and fit our gaps and run to the ball. We are going to continue to do that as a defense and it'll help us in the long run," Terrapins DL Darius Kilgo said.

Southern Methodist Mustangs at (21) East Carolina Pirates

* Tom Mason will be coaching his third game as the interim coach for the Mustangs. This is the second time in his career he has held the distinction, also at Boise State in 1996, and is carrying a lifetime coaching record of 1-12.

* "I personally felt like we needed to cut down our penalties as a team. After the first quarter, I want to be a better team in the second quarter of eliminating penalties," Pirates coach Ruffin McNeill told the media Monday. ECU has given up an average of 75 yards per game due to penalties.

Iowa State Cyclones at (23) Oklahoma State Cowboys

* Cyclones coach Paul Rhoads made quite a commotion at his weekly presser. The sixth-year coach pounded his podium imitating the 'Paddle People' in Stillwater. Iowa State has always been affected by the crowds at Boone Pickens Stadium, going 6-17 SU in its last 23 in Stillwater.

* Oklahoma State ranks 11th nationally with eight tackles for loss per game, is 19th nationally with 3.25 sacks per game and is third nationally with three blocked kicks.

(7) Texas A&M Aggies at (14) Mississippi State Bulldogs

* The Aggies are leading the FBS with 27 completions of 20 yards or longer this season. They will be facing a Bulldogs team that ranks last in the SEC in passing defense.

* Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen is not kidding himself about this game. "I don't see it being a real low-scoring battle in the trenches," the sixth-year coach said. "If you hold them just below the average, we'll have to score 50."

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at (2) Florida State Seminoles

* Shocking victories are not common in the Demon Deacons' history. Wake Forest has an all-time record of 22-125-1 against top 25 teams with the last victory coming in 2011 versus the Seminoles.

* The Seminoles could be reloading their team this Saturday. FSU is expecting both DE Mario Edwards and RB Mario Pender to be dressed and ready to go against the Demon Deacons.

(6) Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns

* Baylor may be outscoring teams 227-55, but it's not just their offense that is shining. The Bears defense held Iowa State RBs to 28 yards on 20 carries last week.

* It's pretty clear that the Longhorns and Bears are developing a bitter rivalry. "Just because they started playing better in this era, that's good for them. We're still Texas," Longhorns WR John Harris said this week.

(1) Alabama Crimson Tide at (11) Ole Miss Rebels

* Alabama has been training hard this week with full pad practices, but QB Blake Sims does not look 100 percent. The senior is dealing with a shoulder injury and was not throwing as hard as he could during practices.

* After some mediocre years, Ole Miss is finally getting the right attitude in the locker room. "It's daylight (and) dark from our sophomore year when going down to Baton Rouge and just playing with LSU was a moral victory," quarterback Bo Wallace said. "Now it's ‘We have to win these games, we have to win these big games to take our program to the next level."

(16) Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats

* If there is one word to describe how the Badgers' WR feel this season it is frustrated. Kenzel Doe, Rob Wheelwright and Reggie Love all described their seasons as frustrating this week. The three have combined for two catches and 11 yards.

* Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald is far from satisfied with his team. The coach said Jack Mitchell was "terrible," the punting game was "horrendous" and that LB Anthony Walker made 10 mental errors.

(13) Stanford Cardinals at (8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

* The Cardinals have not forgotten the special teams game this season. "(Korey Drunkee is) probably the best punter I've ever seen," said return man Ty Montgomery. “He was putting the ball all over the field. Most of his punts were over 50 yards. It was incredible.’’

* The Fighting Irish are 15-0 under Brian Kelly when they don't turn the ball over, a record that RB Tony Alford is well aware of. "A fumble is an unacceptable deal. If you feel like the ball is coming out, fall down...there is no forgivable fumble."

(3) Oklahoma Sooners at (25) TCU Horned Frogs

* The Sooners have been dominating TCU defensively in all 13 games they've faced each other. Oklahoma has not once allowed the Horned Frogs to score more than 20 points once.

* TCU ranks second in the nation in total defense, allowing only 2.2 yards per rush and a 49.0 passing completion percentage.

Vanderbilt Commodores at (12) Georgia Bulldogs

* It doesn't seem anyone is going to mistake Vandy for an offensive powerhouse. Last week QB Wade Freebeck went 8-for-25 for 85 yards with three interceptions while getting sacked four times.

* The Bulldogs offense is set to get WR Malcom Mitchell back in the lineup according to coach Mark Richt. "He would have to have a setback to not play," the coach said. Mitchell tore his ACL celebrating in the season opener against Clemson.

(15) LSU Tigers at (5) Auburn Tigers

* LSU is going to be putting the ball in the hands of a freshman against Auburn. QB Brandon Harris will get the start for the Tigers Les Miles said Monday. The freshman went 11-for-14 against New Mexico State with three TD's.

* Auburn QB Nick Marshall ranks third in the nation in rushing yards among active QB's since the beginning of last season. The senior could have a big day against a LSU defense that is surrendering the sixth-most rushing yards to QB's.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at (22) Kansas State Wildcats

* The Red Raiders may be going into Bill Snyder Family Stadium down their starting QB. David Webb is listed as day-to-day after suffering a shoulder injury against Oklahoma State last week. The sophomore QB has 1356 yards with 14 TD's this season.

* Wildcats head coach Bill Snyder's biggest concern about Texas Tech's offense is the speed. "From a defensive standpoint, the thing is that you do not have time to really sit and process things as well as you would like to."

(24) Arizona State Sun Devils at (20) USC Trojans

* It does not appear that QB Taylor Kelly will be healthy enough to play against USC, so the Sun Devils will need to call on Mike Bercovici again. The junior threw for 488 yards with three TD's and two interceptions against UCLA.

* No defense in the nation has been quite as overpowering than the Trojans. USC ranks sixth in the nation with a turnover differential of +7 and the have not allowed a passing touchdown through four games.

(17) Nebraska Cornhuskers at (10) Michigan State Spartans

* Tommy Armstrong Jr. was abused by the Spartans last year throwing an interception and losing two fumbles, but he understands what happened. ""I was kind of wide-eyed when I played against them my first year. But now I know what to expect, I know what our offense is capable of just by what we’ve been doing the whole year."

* It may seem a bit extreme, but Spartans LT Jack Conklin attributes his offseason weight loss to a Cornhuskers DE. "I learned about the speed facing (Randy Gregory), because he's very fast,'' Conklin said. "That's partially why I went about losing my weight because I looked at the film and I had to do something to help me against these kinds of guys."

Utah Utes at (9) UCLA Bruins

* Utah is one of the best starting teams in college football. The Utes have outscored their opponents 55-10 in the first quarter this season.

* UCLA's Brett Hundley lit up the Utes while scoring a touchdown passing, running and receiving last season as the Bruins beat Utah by seven points for the second straight year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: LSU at Auburn

LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers (-7.5, 58.5)

Fifth-ranked Auburn puts its 12-game home winning streak on the line when it hosts No. 15 LSU for a Southeastern Conference West Division showdown Saturday night. It's the beginning of a brutal stretch for Auburn as it tries to defend its SEC crown and claim a spot in the inaugural four-team playoff. LSU has won three straight meetings and six of the last seven, including a 35-21 home win last season, but the home team has won 12 of the last 14 contests in the series.

After surviving a scare at Kansas State on Sept. 18, Auburn cruised to a 45-17 win over Louisiana Tech last week. LSU couldn't complete a furious comeback in a 34-29 loss to Mississippi State in its SEC opener two weeks ago but was sharp in a 63-7 tuneup versus New Mexico State last Saturday. A victory would be coach Les Miles' 100th at LSU, while Auburn seeks its 300th all-time victory in SEC play.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Auburn -7.5

LINE REPORT: The line opened at Auburn -8.5, but bettors have pushed it down to -7.5. The total has been shifting upwards after opening at 56.5, it now sits at 58.5.

INJURY REPORT: LSU - FB Connor Neihgbors (Prob-Concussion), DT Quentin Thomas (Ques-Arm) Auburn - LB LaDarius Owens (Prob-Undisclosed), OL Patrick Miller (Ques-Undisclosed)

WEATHER REPORT: Clear skies are projected for the game, but thunderstorms are expected for the night before. Winds will be blowing NW 12-14 miles per hour.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The party could be over for the [Auburn] Tigers, with five of their next six games coming against ranked teams, three of those coming on the road. LSU will start freshman QB Brandon Harris on the road at Auburn this week." - Covers Expert Jesse Shule

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “We opened this at -9 and it moved to -7.5 in less than 12 hours on the board. Bettors believe the freshman at quarterback is an upgrade for LSU as we’ve seen more than 63 percent of our wagers on that side. The total has steadily climbed since the open as almost 76 percent of our action has come on the over. I think Auburn takes care of business.” - John Lester, lines manager for Bookmaker.eu

ABOUT LSU (4-1, 0-1 SEC): Despite the early slip-up versus Mississippi State, the Tigers' stock is rising since freshman quarterback Brandon Harris took the reins of the offense. Harris led LSU to touchdowns on all seven possessions he played against New Mexico State and has led TD drives on nine of his last 10 possessions since taking over against the Bulldogs. The Tigers dominated inferior opponents but dug early holes against Wisconsin and Mississippi State and must be much more sound defensively in the first half against Auburn.

ABOUT AUBURN (4-0, 1-0): The Tigers continue to move the ball at will under coach Gus Malzahn, particularly on the ground. Tailback Cameron Artis-Payne (117 yards per game, 5 TDs) and quarterback Nick Marshall (68.2 yards per game, 2 TDs) are dangerous runners, and Marshall has done enough damage as a passer to keep defenses honest, averaging 137 yards through the air with six TDs and one interception. Defensively, the Tigers have given up large chunks of yardage through the air but have gotten nine takeaways to limit the damage.

TRENDS:

*Auburn is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
*LSU is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win.
*Over is 8-1 in Auburn's last 9 home games.
*Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Auburn.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 53.47 percent of Covers users are backing LSU +7.5, with 55.3 percent taking the over.

[golden contender]

Huge Double 6* Saturday led by 100% BIG 10 Game Of The Year, 6* Triple system Nebraska vs Michigan. St Side + 6 more Powerful League Wide system plays 3 are rated 5*. Football combined is 72 games over.500 the last 6 seasons combined. In MLB Playoff action there is a 36-2 Power Angle play. A tremendous card with most games Televised. Free College system play below.

The free College Football system club play is on Rice. Game 362 at 7;00 eastern. Rice fits a solid game 5 system that pertains to bowl teams off their first win which was in conference play these teams are Perfect to the spread over the last 25 years. Rice has covered all 6 games in the series vs Hawaii. The Rainbow warriors don't have much fight on the main land. In fact they are 1-7 ats in the 2nd of back to back road games, Rusty with rest at 0-4 ats and 0-17 straight up vs teams that have a win percentage of .333 or more. Hawaii is 1-5 ats vs Conference USA and 4-12 ats as a road dog of +3.5 to +7. Look for Rice to win and cover. On Saturday we have The Biggest and Strongest card thus far in NCAAF Action. In Afternoon action its the 100% 6* BIG 10 Game of the year and 4 More Afternoon plays. In Evening action its the 6* Triple system side on ABC between Nebraska at Michigan. St. There are alos 3 big 5* plays most from Perfect or near perfect College Power systems. In playoff bases a 36-2 Power angle takes center stage. Football is 72 games over .500 combined heading into Saturday. Message to Jump on and flatten your book all day and night with the most powerful data in the industry. For the free play take Rice. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges
NFL pre-season: 14-9
College Football: Last week 11-9......Season 40-30
NFL: Last week 2-2........Season: 10-20

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

DOUBLE PLAYS:
Memphis +4 Cincinnati...I'd recommend taking part of this play on Memphis on the money line at +185
USC -11 1/2 Arizona St.

SINGLE PLAYS:

Mississippi +5 1/2 Alabama....I'd recommend taking a part of this play on Ole Miss on the money line at +190
Mississippi St. -2 1/2 Texas A&M
Georgia -33 1/2 Vanderbilt
Florida St. -38 Wake Forest
Ohio St. -8 1/2 Maryland
E. Carolina -41 SMU
Virginia Tech -3 No. Carolina
Akron -25 E. Michigan
Kansas State -14 Texas Tech
No. Illinois -24 1/2 Kent St.
Texas St. -17 Idaho
Michigan St. -6 1/2 Nebraska

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PowerPlayWins


Today's Power Play of The Day is


Sport: NCAAF

ALABAMA (-5)
Over
MISSISSIPPI
Game time: 12:30:00 PM (PST)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Saturday Edge

Sabert

2.5u Kentucky +7
2u, Fla +3 (not out there currently but be patient, it should come back) - if not, 1.5u on anything plus points.
1.5u Bama -6.5
1u FIU +9
1u USC -10
1u Memphis +4

Pez

370 USC -10 (1 unit)
371 LSU/Auburn over 57 (1 unit)
331 Pitt +6 (1 unit)
345 Wiscy/Northwestern OVER 47 (1 unit)
387 Utah/UCLA UNDER 64 (1 unit)
395 Cal/Wazzou UNDER 76.5 (1 unit)
399 Michigan +2 (1 unit)

GoSooners

USC -10 (1 Unit)
386 Miss St -2.5 (1 Unit)
377 Florida +2.5 (1 Unit)
331 Pitt +5 (1 Unit)
383 Bama -4.5 (1 Unit)
399 Michigan +2 (1 Unit)
387 UCLA/Utah Under 64 (1 Unit)
346 Wisky/NW Over 47 (1 Unit)
381 Okie State/Iowa State under 65 (1 Unit)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CFL | EDMONTON at TORONTO
Play Against - Home favorites (TORONTO) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
38-12 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.0% | 24.8 units )
5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 2.8 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF Tech Trends - Week 6
By Bruce Marshall

NFL Tech Trends

Saturday, October 4

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

VANDERBILT at GEORGIA
Dores slaughtered last two in Athens (91-3 combined score). Richt has now won and covered big last three as home chalk after dropping 8 of previous 12 in role.

Georgia, based on team trends.


WAKE FOREST at FLORIDA STATE
Noles now 0-4 vs. line TY, Wake has covered last three for Clawson. But Noles have won last two vs. Deacs by combined 111-3 score. FSU 4-1 vs. line last five years in series after losing three straight to Grobe 2006-08.

Slight to FSU, based on recent series trends.


MIAMI-FLA. At GEORGIA TECH
This has been a bad matchup lately for GT, which has lost and failed to cover last five years vs. Canes. Jackets 0-2 as home chalk TY.

Miami, based on series trends.


NORTH TEXAS at INDIANA
UNT 13-5 last 18 vs. number, and 7-3 last 10 vs. spread away from Denton. Even after Mizzou win, IU just 6-13 vs. spread last 19 on board, and 3-7 last 10 as home chalk.

UNT, based on team trends.


PURDUE at ILLINOIS
Last three decided by 7 or fewer, and home team has covered each. But Illini 1-2 as home chalk TY and Beckman 4-7 laying points since 2012. Hazell 6-10 vs. line since LY but has split six spread decisions as dog away from home.

Slight to Purdue, based on Illini Beckman chalk woes.


OHIO STATE at MARYLAND
Bucks just 3-6 last 9 on board since late 2013 (though 2-1 TY). Meyer 5-4 as road chalk with Buckeyes. Edsall 6-4 vs. line last 10 at College Park, 6-3 last 8 as dog.

Maryland, based on team trends.


SMU at EAST CAROLINA
Ponies 0-4 SU and vs. line in terrible 2014 break from gate. Ruffin McNeill has covered five straight and 8 of last 9 since late LY, and ECU 8-4 last 12 as home chalk.

ECU, based on recent trends.


MEMPHIS at CINCINNATI
Tigers 3-1 vs. line early in 2014. Justin Fuente also 5-2 last seven as road dog.

Memphis, based on recent trends.


PITT at VIRGINIA
Cavs 5-0 vs. line in 2014, including 4-0 at home. Pitt 1-5 vs. spread as visitor since 2013.

Slight to Virginia, based on team trends.


OHIO at CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Solich 1-5 vs. spread last six away from Athens, and 3-11 last 14 vs. number away from Peden Stadium.

Slight to CMU, based on recent Solich road woes.


KANSAS at WEST VIRGINIA
Revenge for WVU after losing to Weis LY. Weis just 10-18 vs. line since 2012 with KU, 4-8 as road dog. Mounties 3-1 vs. line TY for Holgorsen.

WVU, based on KU negatives.


TOLEDO at WESTERN MICHIGAN
Broncs surprising 4-0 vs. line in early 2014. Rockets, however, have won and covered big last two vs. WMU, which was 0-4 as home dog in 2013.

Slight to Toledo, based on recent series trends.


MARSHALL at OLD DOMINION
Herd 2-6 last eight as visiting chalk since LY but did win and cover handily at Akron last chance in role. Herd 12-6 last 18 on board.

Marshall, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA
UNC no covers first four TY but Beamer 13-30-2 vs. number since late 2010. If Beamer chalk note 0-6 mark laying points as visitor since 2012. Fedora was 10-4 vs. line at Chapel Hill past two seasons .

UNC, based on extended trends.


KENT STATE at NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Flashes no covers first four in 2014, now 5-11 vs. line for Paul Haynes since LY (2-2 as DD dog).

NIU, based on Kent State negatives.


WISCONSIN at NORTHWESTERN
Pat Fitz 2-12 last 14 on board dating to mid 2013 but off rousing Penn State win. Cats 2-5 last seven as Evanston dog. Badgers 11-6 vs. line for Gary Andersen, whose Utag and Badger teams are 21-9 vs. line since 2012.

Wisconsin, based on team trends.


UMASS at MIAMI-OHIO
RedHawks have lost 21 in a row SU so tough tech argument to make for Miami, though a bit better 4-5-1 vs. line last 10 at Oxford. Mass only 1-16 SU its last 16 and 5-10 as visiting dog since 2012 (1-1 TY).

Slight to Miami, based on Mass negatives.


SOUTH ALABAMA at APP STATE
USA 8-2 vs. spread last eight on road and 12-5 last 17 vs. number away from Mobile.

USA, based on road marks.


SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY
Spurrier only 1-4 vs. line early in 2014, and SC 1-4-1 last six as visiting chalk. UK 3-1-1 vs. spread last five in series.

Kentucky, based on team trends.


BALL STATE at ARMY
Ball has won last three and covered last four in series. Lembo 9-3 vs. line last 12 as visitor.

Ball, based on series trends.


BUFFALO at BOWLING GREEN
BGSU has won and covered last three meetings, and Falcs now 13-6 last 19 vs. points at home (2-0 TY for Dino).

BGSU, based on series and team trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at AKRON
EMU 1-3 vs. line TY, now 7-21 vs. spread since 2012, 4-12 last 16 as road dog.

Akron, based on EMU negatives.


TEXAS TECH at KANSAS STATE
TT now 1-8 vs. line last nine reg.-season games after OSU cover. Snyder has won and covered last three years vs. Red Raiders and is 28-14 vs. spread since 2011.

K-State, based on team and series trends.


HAWAII at RICE
In WAC days, the Kenny Hatfield Owls covered all six meetings from 1999-2004. Rice 15-9-1 last 25 vs. spread at home, Hawaii 5-7 last 12 vs. line on mainland for Norm Chow.

Rice, based on team trends.


TULSA at COLORADO STATE
Tulsa 0-4 vs. line as road dog since 2013. CSU on 16-5 spread run since mid 2012 and 7-2 last 9 as Fort Collins chalk.

CSU, based on team trends.


GEORGIA STATE at UL-LAFAYETTE
GSU 5-1 as road dog since 2013, ULL 1-8 vs. line last nine reg.-season games.

GSU, based on team trends.


STANFORD at NOTRE DAME
If Shaw is a dog note 5-0-1 spread mark in role since 2011. Tree 16-6 vs. spread as visitor since 2010.

Stanford, especially if dog, based on team trends.


ARIZONA STATE at SOUTHERN CAL
ASU put 62 on SC in 2013, tying most-ever points allowed by Trojans (which was 62 previous year vs. Oregon). Graham ran up 53-24 score on Sark's UW last year, too. But Sun Devils just 1-6 as dog under Graham, and Trojans 10-6 as Coliseum chalk since 2011.

SC, based on team trends.


LSU at AUBURN
Auburn has covered the last two meetings at Jordan-Hare, and Malzahn 13-2 last 15 vs. spread. Les Miles 4-2 last six as dog.

Auburn, based on team trends.


NAVY at AIR FORCE
Mids 10-1 SU, 9-1-1 last 11 vs. line in series. Navy 7-2 vs. spread last nine away from Annapolis and 12-6 overall vs. number since 2013. Force 1-4 as home dog since LY.

Navy, based on series trends.


OKLAHOMA at TCU...
TCU had been 5-12 vs. line as host past three seasons before opening two wins TY. OU has now covered five straight away from Norman.

OU, based on recent Sooner road mark.


FLORIDA at TENNESSEE
If Vols chalk note 3-9 mark at home in role since 2012 (2-4 for Butch). But Muschamp 2-5 vs. line last seven away from home.

UT, based on recent Gator road mark.


BAYLOR at TEXAS
Briles 29-13 overall vs. line since 2011. Bears just 5-10 vs. mark as visitor that span, but have covered last 4 vs. Texas. Charlie Strong teams 9-1 as dog since 2011.

Baylor, based on team and series trends.


IOWA STATE at OKLAHOMA STATE
OSU has won and covered handily the past two seasons vs. ISU since the big Cyclone upset in 2011. Cowboys 1-2 as home chalk TY after Texas Tech but were 23-9 in role since 2008 in role entering this season.

OSU, based on team trends.


ALABAMA at OLE MISS
Road team had covered five straight in series prior to LY's Bama 25-0 win. Hugh Freeze 7-4 as dog with Rebs and he is now 31-11 vs. spread since 2011 with Ark State and Rebs. Nick just 1-5 last six as chalk away from home.

Ole Miss, based on Hugh Freeze marks.


TEXAS A&M at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Bulldogs now 8-1 vs. line last 9 on board since late 2013. MSU 14-8 vs. line at Starkville since 2011. Ags were 0-4 vs. spread as visitor in 2013.

MSU, based on recent trends.


UTAH at UCLA
Bruins 0-1 vs. line at home TY but 41-22 vs. spread at Rose Bowl since early 2004.

UCLA, based on extended home trends.


UTEP at LA TECH
Skip 4-1 v. line in 2014. UTEP lost at home to Skip LY and is 0-7 as visiting dog since 2013.

La Tech, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at MTSU
USM 4-11 as road dog since 2012 (3-6 for Monken since LY). MTSU now 4-1 vs. line TY after ODU win and 8-4 since 2012 vs. line at Murfreesboro.

MTSU, based on team trends.


OREGON STATE at COLORADO
OSU 1-3 as visiting chalk since since 2012. CU 6-2 vs. spread at Boulder since LY for MacIntyre (2-0 TY).

Slight to Colorado, based on team trends.


CAL at WASHINGTON STATE
Cougs had lost 8 in a row SU vs. Bears prior to 44-22 win LY at Berkeley. Wazzu 4-0 as Pullman chalk since 2013. Leach 13-6 last 19 on board since late 2012.

Slight to WSU, based on team trends.


IDAHO at TEXAS STATE
Vandals have covered first two away TY (road team 4-0 vs. spread in Idaho games TY).

Slight to Idaho, based on recent trends.


MICHIGAN at RUTGERS
Rutgers 3-6 last 9 as chalk. But Brady Hoke 2-5 as road dog since 2012, 3-7-1 as dog same span.

Rutgers, based on recent trends.


NEW MEXICO at UTSA
Davie 0-4 vs. line TY after Fresno loss and now 7-14 against line last 21 on board since mid 2012. Lobos, however, were 4-2 as road dog LY.

UTSA, based on team trends.


ULM at ARKANSAS STATE
Ark State has won and covered last four meetings.

Ark State, based on series trends.


NC STATE at CLEMSON
Pack has covered last four meetings though won only one of those outright. Clemson, however, 6-2 last eight as ACC home chalk. Pack has covered last three on board after dropping seven straight vs. line for Doeren.

NCS, based on series trends.


UAB at WESTERN KENTUCKY
Blazers 1-5 as away dog LY but 1-0 in role for new HC Clark in 2014.

WKU, based on extended team trends.


NEBRASKA at MICHIGAN STATE
Road team has won and covered last two years in series. Bo Pelini 3-1 as dog LY and has covered 5 of last six away from Lincoln.

Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at NEW MEXICO STATE
GSU a revelation now 5-0 vs. line this season after App State win!

GSU, based on current trends.


UNLV at SAN JOSE STATE
Rebs now 8-21 vs. spread away since late 2009.

SJSU, based on UNLV road woes.


BOISE STATE at NEVADA
Nevada has covered last five and 6 of last 7 vs. Boise. Pack has also covered last four and five of last six as dog since late 2013, and 6-1 as home dog since 2010.

Slight to Nevada, based on series trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Ten Report - Week 6
By ASA

Game of the Week

Michigan State (-7) vs. Nebraska – 8:00 PM EST
Michigan State is still regarded as the best team in the conference, but Nebraska is the last remaining undefeated team. So this game should determine a lot. This game also has the potential to provide a preview of the Big Ten title game; a lot is on the line here. Nebraska is led by star RB Ameer Abdullah, who has rushed for over 200 yards in each of the last two games and ranks 1st in the nation in rushing yards. The Huskers are 8th in total YPG, 3rd in rush YPG, and 7th in PPG. QB Armstrong Jr. has performed admirably through the first five games and while has been a nice complement to Abdullah (10 TD & 3 INT), his 53.9% completions is a bit concerning and he has yet to face a defense on par with Michigan State. Armstrong, Abdullah, and Co. won’t get any easy yards against this MSU defense that ranks 5th against the run and 11th overall.

After losing at Oregon on September 6th, the Spartans have won back-to-back games by a combined score of 129-28. We didn't find out anything new about the Spartans in the two most recent blowouts except that they were able to develop some more depth as backups saw most of the action in the 2nd half of both games. MSU won the most recent meeting, 41-28 last November in Lincoln, but Nebraska's offense was able to move the ball quite well against MSU. The Huskers outgained the Spartans (392-361) and had more first downs despite having 17-fewer minutes TOP. If it wasn't for a -5 TO margin in the game, the Huskers may have come out on top. Nebraska is 5-1 SU & ATS in the last six meetings with Michigan State dating back to 1995 – including 2-1 SU & ATS in the first three years as a member of the B1G conference. MSU is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 games overall and 5-0 ATS in the last five home games. Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in the last six games and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 road games.

Best of the Rest

Ohio State (-7.5) @ Maryland – Saturday, 12:00 PM EST
There were a couple of hiccups for the Buckeyes last week against - allowed 19-yard, 60-yard, 83-yard TD passes in the 1st half - but OSU weathered all that with an unstoppable offensive performance en route to a 50-28 victory over a pesky Cincinnati team. OSU gained an astonishing 710 total yards yards and 45 first downs and controlled the ball for 41 minutes, not allowing a solid Cincy offense to get back into the game. After a couple of bad games against Navy and Virginia Tech, freshman QB J.T. Barrett has bounced back to throw for 642 yards and 10 TD on 72% completions in the last two games. It helps that he's been able to lean on the rushing attack that notched 284 yards and 380 yards in back-to-back wins, but he looks natural and comfortable in Urban Meyer's offensive scheme just in time for Big Ten play to start. The defense remains a bit of a concern, mostly in the secondary as OSU allowed Cincy's QB Kiel to complete 21-of-32 passes for 352 yards and 4 scores.

OSU will have to shore up its defensive issues as the Bucks now travel to Maryland for the Terps' first home game as a member of the B1G. The Terrapins made themselves right at home in their Big Ten debut at Indiana last week as they throttled the Hoosiers. QB's C.J. Brown & Caleb Rowe combined to throw for 361 yards, 3 TD, and 0 INT on 22-of-33 passing. Brown, the starter, was injured in the win and his status for Saturday's game is still unclear. Rowe stepped in last year when Brown was injured and started three games games for the Terps. Maryland would much rather have Brown under center, but Rowe isn't a terrible 2nd option. Defensively it was a promising performance for a struggling unit as the Terps held Indiana out of the end zone until mid-4th quarter. IU's rushing attack had a solid day (206 yards on 4.4 YPC) but QB Sudfeld was just 14-of-37 passing for 126 yards (0 TD, 1 INT). This unit that surrenders 200.6 rush YPG (102nd nationally) will need to play better against this OSU rush offense if the Terps want any shot at the upset. OSU is 28-11-1 ATS in its last 40 road games and 22-9-1 ATS in its last 32 as a road favorite. Maryland is 6-14 ATS in the last 20 home games and 3-6 ATS in the last nine as a home underdog.

Wisconsin (-7.5) @ Northwestern – Saturday, 3:30 PM EST
We know about the Badgers’ high-powered rushing attack, but it might be time to start paying attention to their defense. Wisconsin now ranks 8th against the run, 19th against the pass, 7th in total yards allowed, and 11th in points allowed. They've held the last three opponents to 30 combined points and 73 rush YPG. If the defense continues to play like that, it will keep Wisconsin in most games even if the offense sputters like it did on Saturday. The Badgers were able to put just three points on the board by halftime against South Florida. They got going in the 2nd half, scoring 24 points en route to a 17-point victory. Melvin Gordon and this offense continues to pile up the rushing yards. Wisconsin has outrushed its last two opponents by 773 yards and Gordon has 434 rush yards and 7 TD on 9.6 YPC in the last two games. Credit the Bulls for not allowing athletic Badger QB McEvoy to escape the pocket and making him throw the ball - which he has not done with great success so far this season. McEvoy finished with just 23 rush yards and completed just 11-of-18 passes for 160 yards. He doesn't have to be spectacular in this offense, but the Badgers would like to see him make a few more plays.

The Badgers take their first conference road trip in a trip to Evanston to take on Northwestern this Saturday. The Wildcats looked so sluggish in their first three games before an absolutely dominating performance against Penn State last week. Northwestern’s defense allowed PSU to gain just 266 yards, achieve 14 first downs, and put 6 points on the board. They held the Nittany Lions out of the end zone by limiting the rushing attack to just 50 yards on 25 carries and by shutting down dynamic QB Hackenberg (22-of-45 for 216 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT). The Wildcats weren’t explosive on offense (103 rush yards on 2.7 YPC) but QB Siemian managed the game well (21-of-37 for 258 yards) and the defense was opportunistic (INT return for TD). It was the type of performance that might get the Wildcats officially out of their slump. Wisconsin has won and covered the last two meetings by a combined score of 105-29, but has historically struggled against the Wildcats with just a 4-9 ATS record in the last 13 meetings. Last year Wisconsin had +286 yards and +14 first downs in the 29-point win. The Badgers have dropped three straight games to Northwestern in Evanston, losing all three times as a favorite.

Rutgers (-3) vs. Michigan – Saturday, 7:00 PM EST
The Rutgers easily took care of business against an overmatched Tulane team last week, winning 31-6. It was a promising sign that the running game notched 171 yards on 4.3 YPC without star RB Paul James, who was lost for the season with a knee injury last week. QB Nova also stepped up with 291 pass yards and 4 TD on just 14 completions. Nova will have to continue to improve and lead this team through the air because, while the rushing attack was solid against Tulane, yards won't come as easy against Michigan this week and the rest of the B1G moving forward. Defensively, the Scarlet Knights allowed just 304 yards - 86 of which came on one long TD run in the 2nd quarter - and 13 first downs to Tulane. Up next the Scarlet Knights aim for their first B1G victory against the reeling Michigan Wolverines.

Michigan is 1-3 in the last four games, beating only winless Miami OH. The Wolverines have 13 turnovers in those four games and have been outscored by an average of 29-8 in the three losses to Notre Dame, Utah, and Minnesota. Backup QB Shane Morris got the call last week in place of Devin Gardner. Morris was just 7-of-19 for 49 yards with an INT. He got injured in the game and Michigan will make the move back to Gardner. It's a shame that Michigan's offense is so lackluster, because the defense has been playing well. The Wolverines rank 22nd against both the pass & the rush and 9th in overall defense. None of that will matter going forward if the Wolverines can't get consistent play from the quarterback position. Head coach Brady Hoke's seat can't get much hotter, and it'll be interesting how he gets the team to respond to all the negatively surrounding the program. Michigan is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 road games as an underdog. Rutgers is just 2-6 ATS in the last eight games as a home favorite.

Illinois (-10) vs. Purdue – Saturday, 12:00 PM EST
Without QB Lunt leading the way against Nebraska last week, the Illini stood no chance at the upset. Backup QB O'Toole completed just 17-of-38 passes for 261 yards with 1 TD and 3 INT. His inaccuracy and Illinois' inability to run the football (78 yards on 24 carries) repeatedly stalled drives and allowed the Huskers to control the TOP (+20 minutes). Illinois' defense allowed Nebraska to rush for 458 yards on 70 carries (6.5 YPC) with 5 rush TD. We knew Illinois wasn't a very strong team after narrow wins over FCS Youngstown State (28-17), Western Kentucky (42-34), and Texas State (42-35); but the arm of Wes Lunt always made them competitive. Without Lunt, the Illini become one of the bottom-feeders of the B1G.

Luckily for them, Lunt will return this weekend as the Illini host Purdue. He has 1,237 pass yards, 11 TD, and just 3 INT through four games this season. Purdue coach Hazell doesn't know where to turn at quarterback as both Danny Etling (54.9%, 6 TD, 5 INT) and Austin Appleby (39.1%, 1 TD, 1 INT) have struggled so far this season. Both struggled in the loss last week as Purdue managed just 156 total yards and 9 first downs against Iowa. The defense played well and kept the Boilers down just seven points late in the 4th quarter, but it's not going to matter how good the defense performs if the offense keeps putting up numbers like that. Offensively Purdue now ranks 95th in rush YPG, 97th in PPG, 107th in pass YPG, and 117th in total YPG. The Boilers are 7-2 SU in the last 9 meetings with Illinois, including 3-1 SU the last four trips to Champaign. Illinois won the meeting last year, 20-16, in a rather ugly game. The Illini are 6-3 ATS in the last 9 games as a Big Ten favorite of 10 points or more. Purdue is 3-6 ATS in the last nine as a Big Ten underdog of 10 points or more.

Indiana (-13.5) vs. North Texas – Saturday, 2:30 PM EST
Indiana followed up its promising road win over SEC Missouri with a blowout loss at home to Maryland. An offense that looked so good in the first three games sputtered to just 15 points, with the lone offensive touchdown coming when the game was already decided. QB Sudfeld had one of his worst games as he completed just 14-of-37 passes for 126 yards with an INT. Defensively this is still a major work in progress. They allowed Maryland QB's Brown & Rowe to throw for 361 yards, 3 TD, and 0 INT on 22-of-33 passing. The Hoosiers have now allowed 36.3 PPG to its three FBS opponents and rank 90th in YPG allowed. It appears that the only reliable Hoosier these days is RB Tevin Coleman, who has rushed for 120+ yards in each game this season and has reached the end zone seven times.

Indiana closes up non-conference play this weekend as North Texas visits Bloomington. North Texas is 2-2 this season, with the two wins coming against hapless SMU & FCS Nicholls State. UNT's two losses were to Texas and Louisiana Tech by a combined score of 28-80. Despite the fact that UNT put up 77 points last week, this remains one of the poorer offensive teams in the nation. The Mean Green are 123rd in pass yards and 115th in total yards. Yes, they put up 77 points last week, but three of the scores were from defense/special teams. Since 2010, North Texas is 6-0 ATS against Power Five conference teams, including covers against four teams ranked in the top 15. The only prior meeting with Indiana came in 2011, a 24-21 win. UNT is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games as a double-digit underdog. Indiana is 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a double-digit favorite.

Minnesota – Bye Week
Minnesota ended a six-game losing streak against Michigan to claim the Little Brown Jug. The Gophers have a solid formula to make life miserable for opponents, leaning on a powerful rushing attack and a stout defense. They simply wore down Michigan to the tune of 206 rush yards on 47 carries while controlling the clock for +9 minutes TOP. Defensively the Gophers held Michigan to just 171 total yards, including 83 rush yards on 28 carries (3.0 YPC). QB Mitch Leidner wasn't spectacular (14-of-22 for 167 yards and 1 TD), but he managed the game well and didn't make any mistakes. They earned their bye week, and now have four manageable games coming up (vs. Northwestern, vs. Purdue, @Illinois, vs. Iowa) that could conceivably put this Minnesota team at 8-1 heading into a home showdown with Ohio State on November 15th.

Iowa – Bye Week
In classic Iowa Hawkeye football fashion, they got the win at Purdue, but it sure wasn't pretty. Iowa had a +264 yard advantage and +13 first downs, but didn't take the lead until late in the 3rd quarter. They didn't put the nail in the coffin until 5:10 remaining in the 4th. Iowa rushed for 175 yards but on just 3.4 YPC while QB Beathard wasn't very efficient against Purdue's defense (17-for-37 for 245 yards). Coach Ferentz has stated that he won't make a decision on who starts at QB in the next game until next week, but indicated that when the Hawkeyes return to action on Oct. 11 against Indiana, they plan on playing more than one guy under center. Beathard didn't seize the job against Purdue and Rudock is the more proven option. With little rushing success to speak of, the QB play will have to get better going further into conference play. Next up is a home game against Indiana.

Penn State – Bye Week
No team needs the bye week more than the Nittany Lions after last week's performance against Northwestern. In one of the more surprising outcomes of the week, a struggling Northwestern squad completely dominated the previously undefeated Nittany Lions. The Wildcats held PSU to just 50 rush yards on 2.0 YPC and 14 first downs. And unlike previous contests where QB Hackenberg bailed out a struggling PSU offense, he was inefficient and unproductive against Northwestern. He completed just 22-of-45 passes for 216 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT as PSU failed to reach the end zone. The defense remains elite, but unless this offensive line starts opening up holes for the running game and creating some more time in the pocket for Hackenberg, this offense is going to struggle. The Nittany Lions travel to Michigan in their next game on October 11th.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play Sat Florida + 2 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

Stanford vs. Notre Dame

4* Notre Dame

There is an old college basketball adage that could be appropriate for today’s contest. It refers to competitively priced games and is simply stated as “put your money on the player.” This refers to the most dominant performer on the team who is most likely to make the meaningful game deciding play. In this game, that could well be ND QB Golson. You will remember Golson as the starting signal caller of the Irish, who led Notre Dame to a 12-0 SU regular season in 2012. After a year sabbatical, Golson is again holding the reins of the Irish offense. Consider it to be no coincidence that the Irish are off to a 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS start. We figure to know more after tonight’s contest, as Stanford is clearly not in the same league as Rice, this year’s Michigan team, Purdue or Syracuse. The Cardinal again has a staunch defense, allowing just 7 PPG, 198 YPG, and 3.3 YP play. But until otherwise noted, we will “put our money on the player.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookiemonsters

POD
Stanford -2

MGs

Maryland +7
Georgia -33
NorthWestern +8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Nationals on Friday and likes Stanford on Saturday.

The deficit is 722 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo working Knight shift

Hondo enjoyed a perfectly wonderful Friday, hitting first with the Orioles then with Louisville to reduce the accounts payable to 1,375 nagles.

Saturday: Mr. Aitch will ride with Rutgers to add to the misery at Michigan — 10 units.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Football Game Picks

Nebraska at Michigan State

The Spartans (3-0 SU at home) host a Nebraska team that is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 road games against a team with a winning home record. Michigan State is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Spartans favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-7). Here are all of this week's games.


SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (9/30)


Game 315-316: Vanderbilt at Georgia (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 77.675; Georgia 106.515
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 29; 61
Vegas Line: Georgia by 33 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+33 1/2); Over


Game 317-318: Wake Forest at Florida State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 73.682; Florida State 115.475
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 42; 50
Vegas Line: Florida State by 38 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-38 1/2); Under


Game 319-320: Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 94.215; Georgia Tech 90.170
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 4; 59
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 1 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-1 1/2); Over


Game 321-322: North Texas at Indiana (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 84.106; Indiana 90.963
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 7; 58
Vegas Line: Indiana by 13 1/2; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+13 1/2); Under


Game 323-324: Purdue at Illinois (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 75.539; Illinois 88.958
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 13 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Illinois by 10; 58
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-10); Under


Game 325-326: Ohio State at Maryland (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 101.097; Maryland 97.890
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 3; 63
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 8; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+8); N/A


Game 327-328: SMU at East Carolina (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 61.804; East Carolina 106.026
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 44; 57
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 39 1/2; 61
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-39 1/2); Under


Game 329-330: Memphis at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 85.952; Cincinnati 87.853
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 69
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 5; 65
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+5); Over


Game 331-332: Pittsburgh at Virginia (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 91.680; Virginia 89.651
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 50
Vegas Line: Virginia by 6 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+6 1/2); Over


Game 333-334: Ohio at Central Michigan (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 70.570; Central Michigan 77.166
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 6 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 4; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-4); Under


Game 335-336: Kansas at West Virginia (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 67.965; West Virginia 97.719
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 30; 48
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 26; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-26); Under


Game 337-338: Toledo at Western Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 75.757; Western Michigan 76.861
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 1; 72
Vegas Line: Toledo by 6; 67 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+6); Over


Game 339-340: Marshall at Old Dominion (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 91.830; Old Dominion 71.719
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 20; 71
Vegas Line: Marshall by 17 1/2; 76
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-17 1/2); Under


Game 341-342: Virginia Tech at North Carolina (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 83.960; North Carolina 95.677
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 11 1/2; 68
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 2 1/2; 65
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+2 1/2); Over


Game 343-344: Kent State at Northern Illinois (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 61.217; Northern Illinois 88.403
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 27; 63
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 24; 59
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-24); Over


Game 345-346: Wisconsin at Northwestern (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 101.584; Northwestern 95.880
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 5 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 9 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+9 1/2); Under


Game 347-348: Massachusetts at Miami (OH) (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 70.252; Miami (OH) 71.802
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 1 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 4; 55
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (+4); Under


Game 349-350: South Alabama at Appalachian State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 73.708; Appalachian State 65.186
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 8 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 4 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (-4 1/2); Over


Game 351-352: South Carolina at Kentucky (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 104.226; Kentucky 91.299
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 13; 51
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 4 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-4 1/2); Under


Game 353-354: Ball State at Army (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 72.513; Army 70.067
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 2 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Army by 3; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+3); Over


Game 355-356: Buffalo at Bowling Green (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 73.950; Bowling Green 76.668
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 2 1/2; 80
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 6; 77
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+6); Over


Game 357-358: Eastern Michigan at Akron (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 51.141; Akron 81.732
Dunkel Line: Akron by 30 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Akron by 22; 49
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-22); Under


Game 359-360: Texas Tech at Kansas State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 83.042; Kansas State 103.004
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 20; 73
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 13; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-13); N/A


Game 361-362: Hawaii at Rice (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 73.342; Rice 78.049
Dunkel Line: Rice by 4 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Rice by 7; 54
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+7); Under


Game 363-364: Tulsa at Colorado State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 71.716; Colorado State 82.891
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 11; 68
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 15; 63
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+15); Over


Game 365-366: Georgia State at UL-Lafayette (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 57.738; UL-Lafayette 78.256
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 20 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 16; 65
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-16); Under


Game 367-368: Stanford at Notre Dame (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 105.316; Notre Dame 105.655
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Stanford by 2 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+2 1/2); Over


Game 369-370: Arizona State at USC (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 88.943; USC 106.813
Dunkel Line: USC by 18; 62
Vegas Line: USC by 11; 66
Dunkel Pick: USC (-11); Under


Game 371-372: LSU at Auburn (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 101.757; Auburn 115.480
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 13 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Auburn by 7; 56
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-7); Under


Game 373-374: Navy at Air Force (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 82.155; Air Force 81.908
Dunkel Line: Even; 58
Vegas Line: Navy by 4 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+4 1/2); Over


Game 375-376: Oklahoma at TCU (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 109.914; TCU 102.348
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 7 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 4 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-4 1/2); Over


Game 377-378: Florida at Tennessee (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 95.782; Tennessee 92.314
Dunkel Line: Florida by 3 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 55
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+3); Under


Game 379-380: Baylor at Texas (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 110.063; Texas 96.856
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 13; 62
Vegas Line: Baylor by 17; 57
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+17); Over


Game 381-382: Iowa State at Oklahoma State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 86.597; Oklahoma State 107.648
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 21; 61
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 17; 65
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-17); Under


Game 383-384: Alabama at Mississippi (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 112.847; Mississippi 102.920
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 10; 54
Vegas Line: Alabama by 6; 51
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-6); Over


Game 385-386: Texas A&M at Mississippi State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 112.295; Mississippi State 105.999
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 6 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 2 1/2; 67 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+2 1/2); Under


Game 387-388: Utah at UCLA (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 91.878; UCLA 108.934
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 17; 55
Vegas Line: UCLA by 13; 60
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-13); Under


Game 389-390: UTEP at Louisiana Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 71.404; Louisiana Tech 78.904
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 7 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 12 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+12 1/2); Over


Game 391-392: Southern Mississippi at Middle Tennessee State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 62.164; Middle Tennessee State 83.513
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 21 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 17 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-17 1/2); Over


Game 393-394: Oregon State at Colorado (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 90.898; Colorado 87.462
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 3 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 7 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+7 1/2); Under


Game 395-396: California at Washington State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 89.842; Washington State 88.481
Dunkel Line: California by 1; 81
Vegas Line: Washington State by 3 1/2; 78 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (+3 1/2); Over


Game 397-398: Idaho at Texas State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 53.666; Texas State 77.666
Dunkel Line: Texas State by 24; 62
Vegas Line: Texas State by 17; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas State (-17); Under


Game 399-400: Michigan at Rutgers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 84.363; Rutgers 92.574
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 8; 43
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-3); Under


Game 401-402: New Mexico at TX-San Antonio (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 69.545; TX-San Antonio 83.178
Dunkel Line: TX-San Antonio by 13 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: TX-San Antonio by 17; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+17); Over


Game 403-404: UL-Monroe at Arkansas State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 73.635; Arkansas State 81.939
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 8 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 11; 48
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+11); Under


Game 405-406: NC State at Clemson (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 85.644; Clemson 106.394
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 20 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Clemson by 14; 67 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-14); Over


Game 407-408: UAB at Western Kentucky (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 75.239; Western Kentucky 81.914
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 6 1/2; 70
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 9 1/2; 75
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+9 1/2); Under


Game 409-410: Nebraska at Michigan State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 100.537; Michigan State 110.732
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 10; 62
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 7; 58
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-7); Over


Game 411-412: Georgia Southern at New Mexico State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 80.624; New Mexico State 59.987
Dunkel Line: Georgia Southern by 20 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern by 17; 61
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (-17); Under


Game 413-414: UNLV at San Jose State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 68.508; San Jose State 75.770
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 7 1/2 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: San Jose State by 11; 57
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+11); Over


Game 415-416: Boise State at Nevada (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 90.778; Nevada 87.342
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 3 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Nevada by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+3 1/2); Under





OTHER GAMES:
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (10/2)


Harvard at Georgetown (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 67.604; Georgetown 51.735
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 16


Princeton at Columbia (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 58.227; Columbia 27.014
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 31


Yale at Cornell (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 63.445; Cornell 46.378
Dunkel Line: Yale by 17


Villanova at Maine (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 82.474; Maine 63.705
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 19


Brown at Rhode Island (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 53.674; Rhode Island 38.527
Dunkel Line: Brown by 15


Bucknell at Bryant (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bucknell 60.695; Bryant 59.496
Dunkel Line: Bucknell by 1


Monmouth at Robert Morris (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 55.718; Robert Morris 38.755
Dunkel Line: Monmouth by 17


Drake at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 45.058; Jacksonville 57.981
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 13


Campbell at Morehead State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Campbell 20.727; Morehead State 26.152
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 5 1/2


Dayton at Davidson (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 44.176; Davidson 20.196
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 24


Marist at Valparaiso (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 36.217; Valparaiso 19.133
Dunkel Line: Marist by 17


Holy Cross at Colgate (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Holy Cross 46.743; Colgate 59.971
Dunkel Line: Colgate by 13


Charlotte at Gardner-Webb (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 48.957; Gardner-Webb 57.072
Dunkel Line: Gardner-Webb by 8


Penn at Dartmouth (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn 50.062; Dartmouth 55.055
Dunkel Line: Dartmouth by 5


New Hampshire at Elon (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Hampshire 73.207; Elon 54.917
Dunkel Line: New Hampshire by 18 1/2


The Citadel at Wofford (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 63.632; Wofford 60.576
Dunkel Line: The Citadel by 3


Western Carolina at Presbyterian (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 55.377; Presbyterian 46.836
Dunkel Line: Western Carolina by 8 1/2


Tennessee State at SE Missouri State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 59.694; SE Missouri State 62.399
Dunkel Line: SE Missouri State by 2 1/2


Howard at NC Central (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Howard 48.006; NC Central 44.719
Dunkel Line: Howard by 3 1/2


Norfolk State at Savannah State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 49.873; Savannah State 28.172
Dunkel Line: Norfolk State by 21 1/2


Montana at North Dakota (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 72.575; North Dakota 58.830
Dunkel Line: Montana by 13 1/2


South Dakota State at Illinois State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 78.645; Illinois State 81.635
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 3


Northern Iowa at Indiana State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 81.933; Indiana State 76.374
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 5 1/2


Youngstown State at Missouri State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 69.308; Missouri State 76.010
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 6 1/2


Stony Brook at Towson (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stony Brook 56.423; Towson 60.678
Dunkel Line: Towson by 4


Mercer at Samford (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 48.802; Samford 62.719
Dunkel Line: Samford by 14


Grambling State at Alabama A&M (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Grambling State 40.651; Alabama A&M 39.976
Dunkel Line: Grambling State by 1


South Carolina State vs. North Carolina A&T (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina State 56.589; North Carolina A&T 59.860
Dunkel Line: North Carolina A&T by 3 1/2


Sacred Heart at Delaware (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacred Heart 54.578; Delaware 64.366
Dunkel Line: Delaware by 10


Northern Arizona at Northern Colorado (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 65.153; Northern Colorado 49.814
Dunkel Line: Northern Arizona by 15 1/2


Northwestern State at SE Louisiana (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern State 70.516; SE Louisiana 76.391
Dunkel Line: SE Louisiana by 6


VMI at Chattanooga (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VMI 41.057; Chattanooga 73.739
Dunkel Line: Chattanooga by 32 1/2


North Dakota State at Western Illinois (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 90.527; Western Illinois 64.009
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 26 1/2


Delaware State at Bethune-Cookman (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware State 42.345; Bethune-Cookman 58.916
Dunkel Line: Bethune-Cookman by 16 1/2


Tennessee-Martin at Jacksonville State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 55.294; Jacksonville State 76.586
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville State by 21 1/2


Idaho State at Eastern Washington (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 60.191; Eastern Washington 87.996
Dunkel Line: Eastern Washington by 28


Morgan State at Florida A&M (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 49.257; Florida A&M 45.551
Dunkel Line: Morgan State by 3 1/2


James Madison at Albany (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 57.936; Albany 59.806
Dunkel Line: Albany by 2


Butler at Stetson (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 39.802; Stetson 17.215
Dunkel Line: Butler by 22 1/2


Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Southern University (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 33.503; Southern University 43.989
Dunkel Line: Southern University by 10 1/2


Lafayette at Fordham (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lafayette 57.343; Fordham 71.658
Dunkel Line: Fordham by 14 1/2


Prairie View A&M at Jackson State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Prairie View A&M 37.760; Jackson State 42.295
Dunkel Line: Jackson State by 4 1/2


Eastern Kentucky at Austin Peay (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 68.690; Austin Peay 33.562
Dunkel Line: Eastern Kentucky by 35


Richmond at Liberty (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 65.563; Liberty 68.711
Dunkel Line: Liberty by 3


Coastal Carolina at Furman (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 76.835; Furman 50.500
Dunkel Line: Coastal Carolina by 26 1/2


South Dakota at Southern Illinois (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 66.231; Southern Illinois 78.229
Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 12


Lamar at Abilene Christian (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lamar 46.809; Abilene Christian 61.373
Dunkel Line: Abilene Christian by 14 1/2


Central Arkansas at Stephen F. Austin (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Arkansas 66.739; Stephen F. Austin 63.100
Dunkel Line: Central Arkansas by 3 1/2


Houston Baptist at Incarnate Word (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston Baptist 19.102; Incarnate Word 31.039
Dunkel Line: Incarnate Word by 12


Nicholls State at McNeese State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nicholls State 35.709; McNeese State 74.248
Dunkel Line: McNeese State by 38 1/2


UC Davis at Portland State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC Davis 64.918; Portland State 58.620
Dunkel Line: UC Davis by 6 1/2


Murray State at Tennessee Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 52.665; Tennessee Tech 51.214
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 1 1/2


Mississippi Valley State at Texas Southern (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi Valley State 22.557; Texas Southern 41.721
Dunkel Line: Texas Southern by 19


Montana State at Sacramento State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 70.817; Sacramento State 58.426
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 12 1/2


Southern Utah at Cal Poly (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 56.261; Cal Poly 69.484
Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's CFL Picks

BC at Hamilton

The Lions head to Hamilton tonight to face a Tiger-Cats team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games. BC is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: BC (+3). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.


SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (10/2)


Game 495-496: Edmonton at Toronto (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 115.542; Toronto 121.063
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 5 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Toronto by 3 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3 1/2); Under


Game 497-498: BC at Hamilton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 115.482; Hamilton 112.477
Dunkel Line: BC by 3; 48
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (+3); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

St. Louis at LA Dodgers

The Cardinals look to follow up last night's 10-9 win in the opener and come into today's contest with a 4-1 record in Lance Lynn's last 5 starts against the Dodgers. St. Louis is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+150). Here are all of today's MLB picks.



SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 913-914: San Francisco at Washington (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Hudson) 13.662; Washington (Zimmermann) 15.138
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-210); Over


Game 915-916: St. Louis at LA Dodgers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 16.405; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.398
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+150); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointwise Phones

4* Baylor
4* Kansas State
3* Alabama
3* West Virginia
3* Kentucky
3* Rutgers
2* E. Carolina
2* Army
2* Ohio State
2* Marshall
2* USC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike point

3 Indiana -13.5
3 Rutgers -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stevewins

Baylor -12.5 (Game of My Career! Baylor Wins By 21+)
No other plays this is the only one you need today!
MAX BET!!
Good Luck!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Saturday

4* Best Bet = NAVY
3* = VIRGINIA TECH
3* = UAB
2* = Ohio State
2* = Nebraska

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB BALFE‏

Ball St +2

Cardinals / Dodgers Over 6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

1*Oklahoma -3.5

Oklahoma escaped with just a three point win at home against TCU last year, but I think this years Sooners team will get the job done here. The Horned Frogs have been a good home underdog in the past and they are off to a 3-0 start this season, but the level of competition that TCU has faced has been very low. The Sooners have already have played a much tougher schedule and have looked very strong on the road so far this season. The Horned Frogs are running a new up-tempo offense this season, but Oklahoma’s swarming front seven and ball-hawking secondary will be the best defense that TCU has faced this season. The Horned Frogs have never scored more than 20 points against Oklahoma and I don't think that will change in this meeting. OU has Texas on deck, but that game is two weeks out and TCU should have their full attention in this game. Lay the points.


1*Baylor -14.5

The Longhorns have the defense to hang around in this game for a while, but I expect the Bears to break this one open and cover this spread. Baylor also has a very under rated defense that should be able to take the run away from the Longhorns. This will force Texas quarterback Tyrone Swoopes to make throws to move the ball and that will lead to mistakes. Baylor has one of the best quarterback in the nation in Bryce Petty and with all of the offensive weapons that Baylor throws at their opponents it will just be a matter of time before they wear down this Longhorns defense. Baylor is averaging 641 yards and almost 57 points per game despite three of their best offensive players missing games with injuries. Texas picked up a win last week at Kansas, but the Horns only produced 111 yards rushing and 30 of those yards came on a trick play. That won't cut it this week, lay the points.


1*Auburn -7.5

This is a revenge game for Auburn as they only lost one regular season game last year and it was to LSU. LSU comes into this game ranked #15 in the nation, but I don't believe that they are really the fifteenth best team in the nation. LSU has played a pretty weak schedule with the exception of Wisconsin and Mississippi State. The Badgers dominated LSU for a half on a neutral field and the Bulldogs from Mississippi State dominated in Baton Rouge. Auburn is better than both of those teams and they get LSU on their turf. Freshmen quarterback Brandon Harris looked unstoppable last week against New Mexico State, but I expect him to look like the freshmen that he is in this match up. Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall was held to just 46 rushing yards in last years meeting, but I look for that to change this time around. LSU head coach Les Miles is just 4-8-1 against the spread as an underdog against an undefeated SEC opponent. Lay the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Los Angeles Dodgers -157 over St. Louis Cardinals
(System Record: 107-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 107-75

Rest of the Plays
Washington Nationals + San Francisco Giants UNDER 7
Los Angeles Dodgers + St. Louis Cardinals OVER 6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Crusher
Nevada +4 over Boise St
(System Record: 12-2, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 12-12-1

Rest of the Plays
Purdue +9 over Illinois
Wake Forest +38 over Florida St
Air Force +3.5 over Navy

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soccer Crusher
Defensay Justicia + Arsenal de Sarandi OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 641-22, lost last game)
Overall Record: 641-534-97

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

North Carolina +2½ (buy half point to +3) over Virginia Tech (Bet Level 2) (Spread Bet) (NCAA College Football) - Game Starts at 12:30 PM EST - EARLY PLAY ALERT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Winning Crew

NCAAF 50 Dime Plays:

Oklahoma
Bowling Green

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Purdue +9
Notre Dame +2.5
Georgia Tech -1.5
Northwestern +7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL's BASEBALL SIDE + TOTAL PARLAY (GO 2-0)!

Al McMordie LOVES Saturday's Baseball card, and he's STEPPING OUT with not 1, but 2 HUGE WINNERS on the diamond. You get 1 Side, and 1 Total (including a play out of a situation which has CASHED 11 STRAIGHT TIMES). Go 2-0 on Saturday. Double your pleasure with Big Al's MLB Playoff Parlay!
3* Nats -206
4* LAD Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Kansas / West Virginia Over 58

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAINMAN

5* Baylor
5* Marshall
5* East Carolina
UL Lafayette
Virginia
Mississippi St
West Virginia
Florida

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dan the Man

50 DIMER

Saturday winner is on Notre Dame as the home dog against the Stanford Cardinal. At 3:00 am Vegas time, the Irish are +2 1/2 point dogs in Vegas and offshore. If your line is +2 1/2 or +3 I want you to buy the half point up on Notre Dame.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

For Saturday, Third Ever 2500♦ ACC Game of the Year is the Virginia Cavaliers as the home favorite over the Pittsburgh Panthers. At 10:05 pm eastern on Friday night, the Cavs are priced at -5 points both in Vegas and offshore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JEFF BENTON

75 DIME winner going out for this Saturday is the Stanford Cardinal and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to hold Under the total. At 6:00 am eastern time, the total for this game stands at 47 points both in Vegas and offshore

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

50 Dime selection is on Nevada over Boise State.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GABRIEL DUPONT

My 80 Dime Winner is the OVER in the Mountain West Conference showdown with the UNLV Rebels and San Jose State Spartans.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Craig Davis

50 Dimer Winner for Saturday is the Miami-Ohio Redhawks minus the points over the Massachusetts Minutemen

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Anthony redd

75 DIMER Ole MIss

75 DIMER LSU

75 DIMER Virginia

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Rosica

150 DIMER

UCLA -13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Michaels

100 dime release on West Virginia -27.5 at home against Kansas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Delaney

50 DIMER on WISCONSIN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Josh Daniels

3* Florida +3
1* UCLA -13
1* Cincinnati -3
1* Pittsburgh +5
1* Michigan +2.5
1* Texas +16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VegasNFLPicks

CFB saturday 10/4

5* East Carolina -40.5 -110 5dimes (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Faffiliates.5dimes.com%2Ftra cking%2FAffiliate.asp%3FAffID%3DAF000189%26mediaTy peID%3D220%26AffUrlID%3D229)


3*Akron -24.5 -120 Pinnacle (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fcappersmall2.com%2Flines.ph p)


3*Baylor -14.5 -114 Pinnacle (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fcappersmall2.com%2Flines.ph p)

3*Notre Dame Moneyline +128 5dimes (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Faffiliates.5dimes.com%2Ftra cking%2FAffiliate.asp%3FAffID%3DAF000189%26mediaTy peID%3D220%26AffUrlID%3D229)


5*Rutgers -2 -110 5dimes (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Faffiliates.5dimes.com%2Ftra cking%2FAffiliate.asp%3FAffID%3DAF000189%26mediaTy peID%3D220%26AffUrlID%3D229)

College Extra -120 juice


1* Duquesne -37 -120 5dimes


1*Norfolk State -19.5 -120 5dimes

1*Bethune Cookman -19.5 -120 5dimes

1*Dayton -29 -120 5dimes

[DaKid]

BIG AL's BASEBALL SIDE + TOTAL PARLAY (GO 2-0)!

Al McMordie LOVES Saturday's Baseball card, and he's STEPPING OUT with not 1, but 2 HUGE WINNERS on the diamond. You get 1 Side, and 1 Total (including a play out of a situation which has CASHED 11 STRAIGHT TIMES). Go 2-0 on Saturday. Double your pleasure with Big Al's MLB Playoff Parlay!
3* Nats -206
4* LAD Under


Thanks bud... you got his football by chance?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PSYCHIC
(1-5)

3 unit Kansas +27.5
3 unit Northwestern +7.5
3 unit Kentucky +4
4 unit Michigan +25 (MAJOR)
5 unit Texas A&M +2.5 (WISEGUY)

WIZARD
(1-10)

7 unit San Francisco +181
8 unit Notre Dame +2.5
10 unut TCU +12.5 (NCAA Game of the Year)

JT WALKER
(all units same one unit)

LA Dodgers -150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Michiga State -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Shaker

2* Rice -6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE ESSLER

Teaser

Kentucky +10.5 to Memphis +10.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U
2014 Big 10 Conference Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Ohio State/Maryland under 59 1/2

Early NCAA Best Bets
Purdue/Illinois under 54 1/2
Florida/Tennessee over 54
Iowa State/Oklahoma State over 65
Texas A&M/Mississippi State under 70 1/2

2014 College Football on NBC Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Stanford/Notre Dame under 45

Mid-day NCAA Best Bets
Wake Forest/Florida State over 55 1/2
Oklahoma/TCU over 57
Baylor/Texas over 58 1/2
Alabama/Mississippi under 52 1/2

2014 Southeastern Conference West Total of the Year!!!!!
LSU/Auburn under 58

Late NCAA Best Bets
Miami-Florida/Georgia Tech over 58 1/2
Arizona State/USC under 68
Nebraska/Michigan State over 58
Utah/UCLA under 64

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA

9* virginia

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Locksmith Sports

6* Colorado State -18 -110 (GAME OF THE YEAR IN NCAAF) (3:00 Eastern)

3* Marshall -18 -110 (12:00 Eastern)

2* West Virginia -27.5 -110 (4:00 Eastern)
2* Georgia Southern -19 -110 (8:00 Eastern)

1* Mississippi State -2.5 -110 (12:00 Eastern)
1* Wisconsin -7 -125 (Buy Down to 7) (3:30 Eastern)
1* Ole Miss +4.5 -110 (3:30 Eastern)
1* Baylor -14 -125 (Buy Down to 14) (3:30 Eastern)
1* UCLA -13 -110 (10:30 Eastern)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Franco

Virginia

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Brian Edwards

Premium Plays
Matchup: Stanford at Notre Dame
Play: Stanford (-1.5 -110) Line Source: Stations
I made Stanford a six-point favorite and love seeing this number south of three. The Cardinal has the nation's top-ranked defense and while Notre Dame is undefeated, it has played absolutely nobody to date. The Irish have wins over Rice, Michigan, Purdue and Syracuse, who have combined for a 7-11 straight-up record. The 'Cuse, with its 2-2 record, is the only foe that isn't sporting a losing record. Stanford should be unbeaten, but it gave away a game against Stanford and somehow lost 13-10 because it had seven trips inside USC's 32 in which it failed to score. The Cardinal grinded out a tough win at Washington last week and I don't think it'll be as tough in South Bend this weekend.

Matchup: Baylor at Texas
Play: Over (57.5 -110) Line Source: CG Technology
When was the last time Baylor had a total in the 50s? Thirty games ago, that's when. And yes, that game in Week 1 of the 2011 season against SMU saw the 'over' easily hit when the Bears beat SMU 59-24 for 83 combined points compared to the 56.5-point total. Baylor is averaging 56.8 points per game this year. No need to give this one much thought -- Baylor totals in the 50s are 'over' plays.

Matchup: Nebraska at Michigan St
Play: Michigan St (-7 -110) Line Source: The Greek
All over Michigan St. here. Nebraska is most likely going to miss one of its best defensive players in LB David Santos, who is 'doubtful' with a knee injury. The Cornhuskers are unbeaten, but they are a fraud that's played nobody. The Spartans have covered the spread in three blowout wins at home over cupcake competition and they went out to Eugene and held a 27-18 lead at Oregon late in the third quarter. The Ducks exploded in the fourth quarter and got the win, but it's evident that Sparty is the class of the Big Ten and they'll prove that Saturday night in East Lansing.

Member Plays
Matchup: Oklahoma at TCU
Play: Oklahoma (-4 -115) Line Source: Bookmaker (http://www.bookmaker.eu)
Oklahoma has had two weeks to prepare for this game which is its hardest road assignment of the season. I point that out to put emphasis on how the Sooners are gunning for TCU. The Horned Frogs have cruised to three easy wins but the competition has been suspect. I made OU an 8.5-point favorite in this game. The Sooners just have too much talent for TCU. I'll eat the road 'chalk.'

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lt locks

Maryland
Ole miss
Tcu
Stanford
Michigan
Pitt
Auburn
Kentucky

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

200 blowout marshall

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Denton Bancroft:

Here are 4 of my CFB plays for the day, will have more coming later:

Mississippi State Bulldogs -3 (-104) (2*): 12:00 pm EDT

Florida Gators MoneyLine +120 (3*): 12:00 pm EDT

East Carolina Pirates -40.5 (-108) (2*): 12:00 pm EDT

Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 (-113) (2*): 12:30 pm EDT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

2000* LSU+7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cajun Sports

5.5-USC -11.5
5- Aub -7.5
4.5- K.St -12
4- Neb O59
4- Boise O51.5
4- S.Car O55

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Billy Coleman

4*'s
NAVY -3.5.
FLORIDA + 2.5.
ALABAMA -5.5.
MISS St. - 3.


3*'s
ball St + 2.5.
usc - 12.
Bases.
wash - 1.5. +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LB Expert Investment Selections
Saturday NCAAF

LSU +7.5
Ole Miss +6.5
Nevada +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bill Hilton- Gameday

4-Auburn -7'
3-Marshall -17'
3-Mich St. -7
2-Notre Dame +2'
2-Miss St -2'

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Topshelfpicks

Polar Bear Sports

Ole Miss +6 (-115 Bovada (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Frecord.bettingpartners.com% 2F_pO1vV3scjG8UbyPgnoR23mNd7ZgqdRLk%2F1%2F)) - Ole Miss wants it bad this year. Yes Bama is still Bama, but they are not the same team as years past. This game will be a close one from start to finish, and I have Ole Miss winning 24-21.

Georgia Tech -2 (Bovada (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Frecord.bettingpartners.com% 2F_pO1vV3scjG8UbyPgnoR23mNd7ZgqdRLk%2F1%2F)) - Georgia Tech is off to a great start this year, while Miami is a bit below expectations. Georgia Tech is off a huge win against Virginia Tech, and they are hungry for more. Miami has played some tough games these past two weeks, and that has to wear on a team. Miami caught the Blue Devils at the perfect time, and were able to escape with the win. They won't be so lucky here. I have this one 38-24 Georgia Tech.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Parlay Club

Complimentary PARLAY Pick for October 4th, 2014

Game: Marshall (CFB) MONEYLINE + Akron (CFB) MONEYLINE + Northern Illinois (CFB) MONEYLINE + Colorado State (CFB) MONEYLINE
Time: Saturday 10/04 12:00 PM Eastern
Pick: 4-team Parlay (-273) at 5Dimes

Combine the Thundering Herd (-840) and the Zips (-2300) and the Huskies (-2250) and the Rams (-800) into a 4-team parlay at -269 odds.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Purelock

Ball State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Mac's Friday Night Hotside is UNDER USC 69.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EXECUTIVE

450 florida
300 pittsburgh
300 boise st
150 auburn
100 texas a&m
100 south carolina

last 3 are opinions

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pick Addict
4:00 PM EST NCAAF
KANSAS VS. WEST VIRGINIA
PICK: WEST VIRGINIA -27.5 (-107)
RISK: 5 UNITS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

tw herri
tennessee

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Sports Unlimited

7* Auburn

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Root

Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com) UNDERDOG GOY TCU

PERFECT PLAY BIG 10 GAME OF MONTH NORTHWESTERN

INNER CIRCLE SEC UNDERDOG OF MONTH MISSISSIPPI

NO LIMIT STANFORD

MILLIONAIRE auburn

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports
MLB
3* Under 7 STL / LA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Sports Consultants - Under Georgia, Mississippi, Northwestern, Stanford, Akron, Under UTEP, Appalachian State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NoCoast totals:
4* Under No Illinois
3* Under Illinois, Ks State, Tulsa, 3* OVER Ohio st

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Legit Nelson

San Jose State -9.5
Michigan State -6.5
Baylor -14
Alabama -4.5
Mississippi State -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Youngstown Connection
Date: Saturday October 4, 2014
$25.00 NCAAF Play #1

#328 East Carolina -40.5 12PM Eastern

Line from Carib (http://www.caribsports.com/)
Line as of 1140AM Eastern 10/3/14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Ticket
Notre Dame

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tiger
CFB 377 florida gators +3-120 buy 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Real Swoop
ECU -41 (2*)
Akron -25 (2*)
Northwestern +8 (1*)
West Virginia -27.5 (3*)
Virginia Tech/north Carolina under 60 (2*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Charlie sports

500*
uab over
marshall over
buffalo over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot Chick PICKS

In baseball.....

Take ST. LOUIS +150 to dodge another close one!


In college....

Take [331] PITTSBURGH +5 to outrun the caveliers!
Take [342] NORTH CAROLINA +3 to tar and feather the hokies!

Take [357] EASTERN MICHIGAN +25.5 to zip it up tonight!

Take [410] MICHIGAN STATE -6.5 to husk a lot of corn tonight in my biggest play this week!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NORTHCOAST

Marquee Plays:
College 900 Play: Notre Dame
Inside Info: Colorado

[Can'tPickAWinner]

**Diamond Dog Sports

#323: Purdue: +8.5 (-105) (1*)


#342: UNC: +2.5 (-105) – Buy Half Point to +3.0 (-115) (4*)


#371: LSU: +7.5 (-105) (1*)


#381: Iowa St: +17.5 (-105) (0.5*)


#387: Utah: +13.5 (-105) (0.5*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Derek Hayes

****Michigan State -6.5

***Miss St -2.5

**Stanford -2

**Kentucky +3.5

*Memphis +3.5 -120

*UAB +9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SportsLab


NCAA:
8 units on Nebraska +7
5 units on TCU +5
5 units on Ole Miss +7 (-120)
1 unit on Texas +15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NonStopSportsPicks

2* Under 59 SMU/East Carolina
2* New Mexico State +20
1* Stanford -2.5
1* Mississippi State -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OC Dooley

2 Units Mississippi St -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports

Complimentary CFB Pick for October 4th, 2014

Game: Kansas Jayhawks @ West Virginia Mountaineers
Time: Saturday 10/04 4:00 PM Eastern
Pick: West Virginia -27 (-110) at BetPhoenix

West Virginia has played much better than many expected, 2-2 right now but the two losses were close ones to #2 Alabama (33-23) and #4 Oklahoma (45-33). This offense is striking for 37.5 points per game and 401.8 yards passing (third in the nation). Senior QB Clint Trickett (9 TDs, 3 INTs) has been much better than last season and they face a terrible Kansas defense that got chewed up by the one good passing team they faced, losing 41-3 to Duke. The Jayhawks are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games. The Charlie Weis era in Kansas came to a premature end this past week following an embarrassing 23-0 loss to Texas and the Jayhawks are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Kansas is 6-16 ATS in October and 4-11 ATS on fieldturf. With the bad visitors in turmoil, look for a blowout win by the home team and their deadly air attack. Play West Virginia.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE ESSLER

2* nevada
1* colo ml

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rooster

320 GTECH -130 ML
350 Appalachian State +3.5
377 Florida +3
394 Colorado +7 (-120)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS
NCAA


Ball St. +2.5




East Carolina -41




North Carolina +2.5




Notre Dame +3




5***** ALABAMA -4.5




Oklahoma/TCU Over 57




Georgia Tech -1.5




Michigan St. -1/Auburn -1.5 6 Point Teaser

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RTG Sports

2* Arizona State Sun Devils @ USC Trojans Under 68

2* North Carolina State Wolfpack +14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon


Ben lee lost on Friday in MLB in the National League Divisional Series Playoff with the Nationals -$180/Giants.

For Saturday in College Football E&B has two three team ten point teasers.

Teaser One!

(1) Texas A&M from +3 to +13/Mississippi State

(2) Massachusetts from +4 to +14/Miami Ohio

(3) Notre Dame from +3 to +13/Stanford


Teaser Two!

(1) USC from -12 to -2/Arizona State

(2) LSU from +8 to +18/Auburn

(3) Air Force from +4 to +14/Navy

For Saturday in MLB in the National League Division Series "Mr Chalk" likes the Nationals -$175/Giants.

Ben lee is 2-4 -$140 for week forty nine 234-253-5 -$2619

"Mr Chalk" is 87-58 -$43 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mysystempicks

NCAA game of the year

5* Alabama -4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Major1Sports

5* MEMPHIS
5* OLD DOMINION
5* STANFORD
5* TCU
5* PITT
5* OLE MISS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

skybluepicks

12:00pm ET - Mississippi State -2.5
3:30pm ET - Notre Dame +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi
7* OKLAHOMA
5* Boise State
3* Ohio State
3* Texas A&M

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Asa 9- va

big money tx a&m

carolina sports 5- col, aub over, 4- memph, n west, ky, ark st, bg over, 3- md, marsh, tx st, la laf

doc's enterprises 6- ok, 4- buff over, nd, rut, boise

dr. Bob 3- akron, k st, ark st, 2- tx st, boise, w va & over, buff, 1- ga st

harry bondi 7- ok, 5- boise, 3- oh st, tx a&m

inside info 3- w va, 2- navy

jack jones 25- lsu, 20- miss st, bay, utah, 15- oh st, tcu, nd

joe d 25- md, 20- col st, nd, ky, 15- ga, rice

lenny stevens 20- col st, k st, 10- nd, gt

neri 3- va, k st, aub, navy, bay

northcoast 4- usc, aub, n mex st, 3- va, miss st

pick city 5- al, 3- aub, fl st, k st, no ill, 2- w va

pointwise 4- bay, k st, 3- al, w va, ky, rut, 2- e car, marsh, army, usc, oh st

preferred picks 4- nd, 3- tx a&m, fl

pure lock ball st

underdog col

wildcat 10- rut, 7- col st, 5- nev

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Millionaires club
lock kansas state

strong southern cal

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Touchdown club
lock
boise state

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINDY CITY
10 WISCONSIN
regular
illinois
stanford

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trophy Club

all 6 unit plays

380 Texas
376 TCU
384 Mississippi

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rooster

Indiana -12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampasports

cfb

tcu-best bet
notre dame -best bet
mississippi
wisconsin

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fat Jack

#321 NORTH TEXAS +13
#329 MEMPHIS +4.5
#355 BUFFALO +4.5
#360 KANSAS STATE -13.5
#385 TEXAS A&M +2.5
#396 WASHINGTON STATE -3
#404 ARKANSAS STATE -13.5
#405 NORTH CAROLINA STATE +14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Worlds Worst Picker
Memphis
Lsu

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris James

Navy -3
Stanford -2
Nebraska +7
UCLA -13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Patron 50k nebraska

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Denton Bancroft:
here are my final 3:

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -2.5 (-105) (2*): 7:30 pm EDT

Kentucky Wildcats MoneyLine +165 (2*): 7:30 pm EDT

Nevada Wolf Pack +3 (-110) (3*): 10:30 pm EDT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sam Martin 25* Cincinnati Bearcats

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian cowboy baseball.



Over 7. SF/wash.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Unlimited
5* Pittsburgh
5* Memphis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By Mike O'Connor



Subject: NFL Week 5 Best Bets - By Mike O'Connor



I have three Best Bets for Week 5 so far and may have another one or two on Saturday. Please be on the lookout for your final update on Saturday by 5PM Pacific. Good luck.

Here is what we have so far:

(460) **New Orleans -10
(465) **Baltimore +3.5 (-115)
(467) **Pittsburgh -6

NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor

**NEW ORLEANS (-10) 34 Tampa Bay 16
Sun Oct-05-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 460 Over/Under 48.5
After getting throttled by the Falcons 14-56 in the Week 3 Thursday night match-up, an embarrassed Bucs team predictably bounced back in a big way last week in Pittsburgh, winning 27-24 as a 7.5 point underdog. They played excellent rush defense –allowing the Steelers previously good ground game just 85 yards at 3.1 ypr, and sacked Ben Roethlisberger 5 times. When he had time, however, Big Ben carved up the Bucs pass defense (331 yards at 7.4 yps) and just missed on two other long gainers, one dropped and one just overthrown. The Bucs offense was unbelievably sloppy and had a hard time getting the play in on time most of the game. They’ve been working on correcting those problems this week but I expect that they’ll have similar issues in that regard in the loud Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

From a match-up perspective, a poor Bucs pass defense that allows 279 yards at 8.0 yps will face a very good pass offense in New Orleans and should have a hard time slowing them down. Offensively, Tampa Bay is averaging just 291 yards per game at 5.1 yppl against teams that have allowed 377 yards at 6.2 yppl and will be hard pressed to keep up with a New Orleans attack that is deadly at home and will be highly motivated to improve on their 1-3 record. Since the beginning of 2011, the Saints are 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS at home, winning by an average score of 35.1 – 19.7. Meanwhile, the Bucs are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in away games since the beginning of last season. In addition, the Saints qualify in a 56-20-3 situation as well as a 23-2-1 subset and my model favors them in this spot by about 14 points. With a highly motivated, more talented team playing at home where they have dominated in the past, in addition to both situations and line value pointing the same direction, I’ll take the Saints -10 for 2-Stars up to -11.
**Pittsburgh (-6) 29 JACKSONVILLE 15
Sun Oct-05-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 467 Over/Under 46.5
I have been spot on about the Steelers the past two weeks, using them as a Best Bet and easy winner two weeks ago as an underdog against the Panthers and then playing against them last week as a large favorite against the Bucs, another easy winner. The Steelers are in a good spot to play well this week off of an embarrassing loss at home to the Buccaneers where they dominated action in the first half but allowed penalties and missed opportunities to spoil their day. When he had time to throw last week after some protection issues in the first half, Big Ben carved up the Bucs pass defense and just missed on two other long gainers, one dropped and one just overthrown. It appeared that WR Antonio Brown could have had a huge day as I spotted him alone in the Bucs secondary on a number of occasions. That could be an issue this week for the Jaguars who have made a habit of blowing coverages and giving up big plays. So far this season, Jacksonville has given up 25 pass plays of 20 yards or longer, including six that have gone for touchdowns, worst in the league.

In addition to the advantage the Steelers have in the passing game, their ground game should also be able to produce. With Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount toting the ball, the Steelers are averaging 144 yards at 5.5 ypr against teams that allow 122 yards at 4.5 ypr and face a Jaguars defense that is giving up 131 yards at 4.3 ypr on the ground and 452 yards at 6.1 yppl overall. Overall, Jacksonville is last in total defense, scoring defense and pass defense. They are tied for first with 12 sacks, but almost half of those came in the opening half 17-0 lead against the Eagles in Week 1 while Philadelphia was sleepwalking. Offensively, they have been nearly as inept, averaging 280 total yards at 4.7 yppl against teams that allow 350 yards at 5.6 yppl. Rookie Blake Bortles is now the starter and while he has demonstrated some play making ability, he also has turned the ball over 4 times in just over 6 quarters of play so far.

The Steelers qualify in a 662-489-40 situation while the Jaguars qualify in a negative 180-251-12 situation of their own that plays against them here. Jacksonville does qualify in a couple of other situations that don’t rate as highly and my model favors the Steelers in this game by about 10 points. Pittsburgh is a motivated, superior team laying less than a touchdown. I’ll take the Steelers -6 for 2-Stars up to -7.
**Baltimore (+3.5 -115) 26 INDIANAPOLIS 22
Sun Oct-05-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 465 Over/Under 47.5
The Ravens made surprisingly easy work of the Panthers in their 38-10 home win last week featuring a balanced attack that generated 454 yards at 7.6 yppl while holding the Panthers to just 315 yards at 5.1 yppl. With the win the Ravens are just a half game behind the division leading Bengals as Baltimore sits at 3-1 entering this game. Meanwhile, the Colts crushed the Titans 41-17 behind another strong performance by quarterback Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is now 2-2 on the season, losing to the two good teams that they have faced (the Broncos and the Eagles) while beating the two poor teams that they have faced (the Jaguars and the Titans). The past two wins have been convincing -- but putting them in perspective for a moment-- they were against teams that have a combined 12-28 record since the beginning of 2013 and are just a combined 1-7 this season. They’ll face a much tougher match-up this week against the Ravens.

Indianapolis will have a hard time moving the ball as well as they have recently as they face a Baltimore defense that is allowing 343 total yards at 5.8 yppl to teams that generate 373 yards at 6.0 yppl. The Ravens have been very good against the run in allowing just 84 yards at 3.5 ypr and should be able to shut down an average Colts ground attack. If they can put enough pressure on Andrew Luck to slow down the pass game just a bit – as I believe they will- the Ravens will have a chance at pulling the upset. Meanwhile, the Ravens should be able to move the ball effectively against a Colts defense that not been good defending the run, allowing 106 yards at 4.6 ypr to teams that gain 90 yards at 4.0 yps on average. With a talented stable of running backs behind an offensive line that has improved both in technique and in scheme, the Ravens should be able to exploit this deficiency.

Baltimore qualifies in a 662-491-40 situation and my model likes the Ravens quite a bit here (-3.6). The Colts have played two consecutive divisional games and face another next Thursday night in prime-time against the division leading Houston Texans. This is a sandwich spot for the Colts and coupled with the situation and line value, I’ll take the Ravens +3.5 -115 for 2-Stars down to +3 -120.