9-16-14

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown spot

The Georgia Bulldogs had dreams of grandeur heading into 2014 but again, a trip to Williams-Brice Stadium turned out to be a nightmare. The Bulldogs fell behind to the Gamecocks last Saturday and couldn’t find their way back, losing 38-35 to South Carolina as 6.5-point road favorites.

Georgia’s national title hopes are shaken, much like they were in 2012 when it lost 35-7 to the Gamecocks in Week 6 after a 5-0 start to the season. The Bulldogs, still stinging from the defeat, went out the following week and laid an egg in a 29-24 squeaker over Kentucky as 25.5-point road chalk.

Georgia finds itself in this position again in Week 4. It’s a massive 39.5-point favorite hosting the Troy Trojans Saturday. The Bulldogs definitely deserve the lofty spread, with Troy going 0-3 and losing to FCS Abilene Christian this past weekend, but will the disappointment of an all-but busted season hang over this program like a dark cloud?

Lookahead spot

Arkansas’ upcoming three-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 8 (bye Week 6) could be the roughest patch of schedule any college football team will face this season. The Razorbacks visit Texas A&M, then host Alabama before the bye, and then face Georgia at home on October 18. It’s enough to turn those shrill Hog Calls into deep sobs of sorrow.

You can excuse Arkansas for looking ahead to those SEC showdowns and past Week 4 opponent, little ole Northern Illinois out of the MAC. The Huskies have had one hell of a non-conference slate, hanging 55 points on FCS Presbyterian before taking road wins at Northwestern and UNLV. The Huskies are 27th in the land in scoring and fourth overall in rushing yards, with 325.3 ground gains per game.

The Razorbacks were bowled over for 302 rushing yards in a Week 1 loss to Auburn, giving up 6.3 yards per carry. And Texas Tech – which runs the ball on less than 40 percent of its plays – still mounted 101 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per carry versus the Hogs last weekend. That two-touchdown spread could be too much for Arkansas to handle if they aren’t focused on a potent NIU attack.

Schedule spot

The San Diego Chargers could have easily found themselves in our letdown spot this week, coming off a massive home win over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks Sunday. But, the Bolts fit right in our schedule spot as well, hopping a plane to Buffalo for an early kickoff with the Bills as 1-point road underdogs Sunday.

The Chargers kept the Seattle defense on the field and ate up time of possession to win 30-21 as 4.5-point home underdogs Sunday. As Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports points out, San Diego not only has to avoid a letdown from that huge win but suffer a 3,000-mile voyage and a 1 p.m. ET kickoff, which equals out to 10 a.m. back in California. In last season’s cross-country tours, the Chargers won at Philadelphia in Week 2 but fell at Washington and Miami, and that Dolphins game was even at 4:05 p.m. ET.

Buffalo has a ton of momentum after wins over Chicago and Miami, ranking sixth in points for and against after two weeks. The weather at Ralph Wilson Stadium is expected to be the farthest things from sun and surf of San Diego. The early forecast is calling for strong winds and rain with temperatures in the mid 60s.

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NFL line watch: Don't bide your time when it comes to betting Bills
By ART ARONSON

Spread to bet now

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-1)

By the time we get into the holiday season it’s likely that lack of depth will have brought the Bills down to earth, but for right now it’s time to enjoy the ride. The 2-0 Bills are alone in first place in the AFC East and are slight favorites at home when the Chargers travel 3,000 miles East for what amounts to a 10 a.m. kickoff for San Diego this Sunday.

Buffalo has to love the way the season has unfolded, with QB EJ Manuel doing nothing to disrupt an offense which has turned the ball over only once in eight-plus (overtime in Week 1) quarters. Buffalo can flat out run the ball behind Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, and Sammy Watkins (eight catches for 117 yards and a TD against Miami in Week 2) is frightening good.

With a new deep-pockets owner ready to take over, things are looking up for the first time in a long time in Western New York. This one is set up for the Bills to win.

Spread to wait on

Houston Texans (-2.5) at New York Giants

Who would have thought it would come to this – the Giants underdogs at home to a team that was the worst in the league last season?

That’s where the G-Men find themselves after submitting two turkeys in a row to start the year. Fingers are being pointed at orchestra conductors Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning, and another bad game at home could make things very ugly, very fast in East Rutherford.

Early wagers have hopped on Houston and if the number sticks at 2.5 for another day, it could move to a field goal by midweek. So, if you like New York to get things turned around, hang on a bit and see if you can get the significant half point.

Total to watch

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (52)

Everyone is 1-1 in the wide-open NFC North, and the only thing for certain is that the Packers defense doesn’t appear to be able to stop anyone.

Both Green Bay games have gone Over despite the fact that the offense hasn’t kicked it into second gear yet. The inability to run the ball (no Green Bay running back has more than 43 yards in a game this year) has puts some pressure on Aaron Rodgers, and the Lions’ D-Line will only make matters worse.

Bettors should take a good hard look at the Over in this game as the Packers spend the week trying to mend their defense.

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NFL opening line report: Broncos 4.5-point dogs in Super Bowl rematch
By COLIN KELLY

Sometimes you have to take a close look at the NFL schedule to figure out which game is the marquee matchup. But there’s no such dilemma in Week 3.

Bettors and fans get a Super Bowl rematch when the Denver Broncos (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) head to loud-and-proud Seattle to take on the defending champion Seahawks (1-1 SU and ATS) on Sunday.

Seattle steamrolled Denver in last season’s title game, winning 43-8 as a 1.5-point underdog.

This time, though, the Seahawks are favored, with the line opening at -4.5. John Lester, the lines manager at a Sportsbook, doesn’t expect a rout this time, but he does expect a Seattle win, with the squad aiming to bounce back from a 30-21 loss at San Diego laying 4.5 points.

"It’s the marquee game of Week 3, and everyone will be running to bet on the Super Bowl rematch,” Lester said. “I don't see the outcome being much different this time around. It will certainly be a closer game, but the Seahawks are still the team to beat, despite last weekend’s setback. They don't lose in the Northwest, especially a game of this magnitude. They will be very focused after the loss, and sharps should be on Seattle at the open of -4.5."

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2)

The NFC North is a logjam, with all four teams at 1-1 SU. Green Bay (0-1-1 ATS) at least comes in with a little steam, rallying from a 21-3 deficit on the road against the New York Jets to snare 31-24 victory and push as a 7-point chalk.

Meanwhile, Detroit (1-1 ATS) followed its 35-point outburst in a season-opening win over the New York Giants by mustering just one score in a 24-7 loss at Carolina as a 1-point pup.

"These are two teams with potent offenses but some serious problems along the offensive lines,” Lester said. “I'm still not sold on the Green Bay defense, particularly the pass rush. The Lions should be able to win the battle in the trenches, and because of that, I give them a slight nod. Everyone expects a shootout, and we opened with a total of 52.”

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) comes in unbeaten, while San Fran (1-1 SU and ATS) dumped the home opener at its luxurious new stadium, losing 28-20 to Chicago as a 7-point fave Sunday. But Lester isn’t too concerned about the Niners, nor too impressed with the Cardinals.

"The Cardinals were a Philip Rivers fumbled snap away from losing in Week 1, and they beat a pathetic Giants team (Sunday),” Lester said. “While I like their defense, the offense leaves a lot to be desired. Like most over-hyped former USC quarterbacks in the NFL, I've never had much respect for Carson Palmer.
It doesn’t matter whether it’s him or Drew Stanton (starting), the Niners deserve to be chalk here."

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Carolina has gotten out of the gate 2-0 SU and ATS, rolling Detroit 24-7 Sunday as a 7-point favorite. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has scored just nine points since holding a 27-3 halftime lead over Cleveland in the season opener. The Steelers narrowly won that contest, 30-27, failing to cash as 5.5-point chalk, and they got ripped last Thursday at Baltimore 26-6 catching 2.5 points.

"I'm a little surprised at how efficient the Panthers have been offensively,” Lester said. “I thought they would struggle throwing the ball and protecting Cam Newton, but (offensive coordinator) Mike Shula has done a heck of a job with a lot of new faces so far. We opened at Panthers -3.5 to try and bait some Pittsburgh money, and I can see this eventually dropping to the key number.”

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How Week 2's rash of big-name injuries impacts NFL Week 3 odds
By JASON LOGAN

Week 2 of the NFL schedule was like a season finale of The Walking Dead, with notable names dropping like flies.

Big-time stars like Robert Griffin III, Jamaal Charles and A.J. Green all went down with injuries, and a bevy of supporting standouts joined them on the sidelines. We asked oddsmakers to peg these players with a value to the spread and see how much impact their absences could have on Week 3’s lines:

Robert Griffin III, QB Washington Redskins

Injury: Dislocated ankle (indefinitely)
Spread value: 2 to 2.5 points

The good news is that Robert Griffin III’s ankle isn’t broken, but there’s no timetable set for his return. Books value RG3 at just under a field goal to the Redskins’ spreads, but is this too much? Backup Kirk Cousins started three games last season and nearly played his way into the starting job this preseason. Many Washington fans could be secretly smiling with Griffin on the shelf and Cousins – 250 yards, two TDs in Week 2 – under center.

This week: N/A at Philadelphia

DeSean Jackson, WR Washington Redskins

Injury: Sprained shoulder (day-to-day)
Spread value: .5 point

Books have a tough time putting a spread value on Jackson since he’s only played five quarters for the Redskins, and the team just lost its starting quarterback. Jackson had one catch for 109 yards before going down, and managed 62 yards on eight catches in his Washington debut in Week 1.

This week: N/A at Philadelphia

A.J. Green, WR Cincinnati Bengals

Injury: Strained foot (day-to-day)
Spread value: 2 to 2.5 points

Green is one of the top receivers in the league, reeling in 131 yards and a score in Cincinnati’s Week 1 win over Baltimore. The Bengals were able to absorb his early loss against the Falcons’ cruddy defense, getting some extra receiving yards out of dynamic RB Giovanni Bernard, who tacked 79 yards through the air onto 90 yards on the ground. They may not need much of Green against the Titans in Week 3.

This week: -6.5 vs. Tennessee

Knowshon Moreno, RB Miami Dolphins

Injury: Dislocated elbow (indefinitely)
Spread value: 1 point

Moreno was on his way to proving doubters wrong before his Week 2 injury. The former Broncos RB, who benefited greatly from Peyton Manning, put up 134 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 1 versus New England, showing that he’s not just a byproduct of Manning’s greatness. Miami got just 80 yards total rushing in the loss to Buffalo Sunday, running the ball 21 times while throwing 49 pass attempts.

This week: -4 vs. Kansas City

Jamaal Charles, RB Kansas City Chiefs

Injury: Sprained ankle (day-to-day)
Spread value: 2 to 2.5 points

The Fantasy Football Gods have not been kind to those who scooped up Charles with their first-round selection. The Chiefs RB has produced just 4.6 points – which translates to 23 yards both rushing and receiving in two games before suffering a high ankle sprain early into Week 2’s loss to Denver. And to throw salt in the wound, his replacement – Knile Davis – scored twice for Kansas City Sunday. Do fantasy owners even want Charles back this week against the Dolphins?

This week: +4 at Miami

Ryan Mathews, RB San Diego Chargers

Injury: Sprained MCL
Spread value: 1 point

Mathews was hoping for a breakout year but was carted off the field with a knee injury Sunday, leaving his status in doubt for the coming weeks. He had 40 yards and a score on the ground in Week 1 and compiled 31 yards on 11 attempts before going down Sunday. Books aren’t discounting San Diego that much without him with Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead providing a solid punch in the backfield.

This week: +1 at Buffalo

Eric Berry, S Kansas City Chiefs

Injury: Foot (day-to-day)
Spread value: 1 to 1.5 points

Books recognize Berry as one of the top defensive players in the NFL and aren’t shy about tabbing him with a lofty spread value – admitting that he may be worth even more than expected. Berry was obviously on the plus side of that estimated worth against Denver Sunday before leaving with a foot injury in the second quarter. Kansas City faces Miami in Week 3, which isn’t the most potent pass attack. However, with injuries to their rushing corps, the Dolphins could look to air it out more and will attack a backup safety is Berry is unable to go.

This week: +4 at Miami

Mark Ingram, RB New Orleans Saints

Injury: Broken hand (four weeks)
Spread value: 0

Surprisingly, the NFL’s current leader in rushing touchdowns is worth jack squat to the Saints’ spreads. Ingram was emerging as a proven threat on the ground after a solid preseason and 143 yards and three scores in the first two weeks of the regular season. But, New Orleans has capable replacements in Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson. Rookie WR Brandin Cooks is even seeing some carries, in the same vein as Percy Harvin in Seattle.

This week: -9.5 vs. Minnesota

Vernon Davis, TE San Francisco 49ers

Injury: Ankle (day-to-day)
Spread value: 1 point

Davis is one the premier tight ends in the league, making him a huge loss for this struggling 49ers offense if he’s unable to go in Week 3. Davis was on crutches after suffering an ankle injury during Sunday night’s loss to Chicago. He left the game with about 10 minutes remaining, taking away Colin Kaepernick’s safety net. Davis had two touchdowns in Week 1 but only 83 yards in total. His backup, Derek Carrier, had three catches for 41 yards Sunday.

This week: N/A at Arizona

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Books pick up Week 2 win
By Matty Simo

Johnny Avello said his New York Giants were “just awful” heading into Week 3 of the NFL season, and he was right on the money. Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, grew up a Giants fan, but opened the Arizona Cardinals as 1.5-point road favorites for their matchup on Sunday.

Little did Avello know, Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer would be ruled out before kickoff due to a shoulder injury and replaced by backup Drew Stanton. Bettors ended up moving the line four points in favor of New York to -2.5, yet Stanton still somehow managed to lead the Cardinals to a 25-14 victory, helping sportsbooks to another winning week.

“We ended up closing the Giants the favorite, and that worked okay because we took Arizona money early, took Giants money late – that game was fairly balanced out,” Avello said. “This is nothing new with the Giants, even the two years they won the Super Bowls (at the end of 2007 and 2011 seasons), they didn’t look that good at the beginning of the year. They never have. Every year the Giants have won the Super Bowl, it’s been about a momentum swing where everything just started to come together.

“And it’s not that they played that great during those two Super Bowl wins, it was just that it was everything happening right at the right time. They look worse than those two years right now. Manning doesn’t look good, they don’t have the receivers they once had. They always relied on a good strong running back, they don’t have that. They just don’t have anything.”

Results in eight of the 14 Sunday games went against the betting line moves – including six of the seven early games – led by Arizona’s win and the Carolina Panthers coming through with starting quarterback Cam Newton back in the lineup following a rib injury that caused him to miss Week 1. The Panthers beat the Detroit Lions 24-7 at home after opening at -3 and closing at -1. Later in the day, the St. Louis Rams pulled off a 19-17 upset of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 5.5-point road underdogs.

“I think the good games for us (Sunday) were the Panthers and the Rams-Buccaneers – I guess those two were the bigger ones,” said Avello.

The Chicago Bears capped off the day’s big win for the sportsbooks with an even bigger victory for themselves. The Bears evened their record at 1-1 after trailing the San Francisco 49ers 17-0 late in the second quarter on the road. Chicago rallied behind four touchdown passes by QB Jay Cutler and a solid defensive effort the rest of the way to win 28-20 on Sunday Night Football as a seven-point underdog.

While underdogs did not enjoy nearly the same success as Week 1 when they went 11-5 against the spread with seven straight-up wins, it’s the type of dogs that won and covered who killed bettors the most in Week 2. The Bucs did it to them again along with the New Orleans Saints, who fell to 0-2 with a 26-24 loss to the Cleveland Browns as 5.5-point road favorites. Underdogs are 6-9 SU and 7-7-1 ATS going into the Monday Night Football game between the Indianapolis Colts (-3) and Philadelphia Eagles.

“It busted up some teasers, that’s for sure,” Avello said of the Saints. “That was a good game for the teaser side. The 49er game, we needed the Bears for a little so that worked out ok. (Tonight) I’m heavy on Eagles points, but I’m heavy on Colts moneyline.”

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CFL Betting Recap - Week 12
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 4-0 straight up in Week 12
-- Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Week 12
-- Home teams posted a 4-0 SU record in Week 12
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 12
-- The 'over/under' went 2-2 in Week 12

Team Betting Notes

-- Calgary (10-1) won its sixth straight contest in a 40-33 win over Toronto (3-8), but for the first time during the win streak they failed to cover.

-- Winnipeg (6-6) has flip-flopped its season. They started 5-1 SU, but slipped to 1-5 SU over its past six games, going 2-4 ATS during the span.

-- Edmonton (8-3) took out their frustrations on Montreal (3-8), covering a double-digit spread. The Esks are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS against everyone not named Calgary, and 0-3 SU/ATS against the Stamps.

-- The modest two-game win streak is over for the Alouettes. They're still just 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS over the past nine games, and winless in five straight against the West Division.

-- In one of the more surprising results of the weekend, Hamilton (3-7) squashed Saskatchewan (8-3) by a 28-3 score. The TiCats were actually favored by 1 1/2 points, but no one expected a 25-point victory. Hamilton has won back-to-back home games, and they're 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS in five outings at Tim Hortons Field.

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Champions League Preview
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

UEFA Champions League - Group Stages

The Champions League group stage tends not to see many shocks. It is incredibly rare for a top seed not to qualify from the group, and it is very seldom that a bottom seed qualifies. With home and away accounting for so much in international club competitions, finding value can be a bit tough. The best way to go about it is betting on straight forecasts and who will qualify, as these are often the closest-run things.

Group A: Atletico Madrid (10/11), Juventus (11/10), Olympiakos (11/1), Malmo FF (80/1)

On paper this looks like a clear case of 'two good; two bad'. Atletico Madrid were literally one minute away from Champions League glory back in May, before Sergio Ramos's header sent the final into extra time, which city-rivals Real Madrid then won 4-1. Juventus were knocked out in the group stages in controversial circumstances last time, but they are still a strong team. However, they will not be helped by the departure of manager Antonio Conte to the Italian National Team. The choice of Massimiliano Allegri as his replacement looks a strange choice.

Olympiakos are an often-underrated team and will not roll over. They are a fine force at home in front of their fanatical fans in Piraeus, and have a team full of up-and-coming talent. Striker Kostas Mitroglou is back from an awful spell at Fulham, and he will be looking to pick up where he left off after his ill-fated move to West London. Malmo, 20 times Swedish Champions, are appearing in the group stages for the very first time. They saw off a highly rated Red Bull Salzburg side in the play-off round, but Age Hareide's men are unlikely to progress further.

Top Bet: 1st - Atletico Madrid 2nd - Juventus - 5/4

Group B: Real Madrid (1/4), Liverpool (7/2), Basel (16/1), Ludogorets Razgrad (66/1)

Real Madrid have what seems like a second generation of Galacticos in their squad. However they have made a really poor start to their La Liga campaign with two defeats from three, and Carlo Ancelotti has a big job on his hands gelling his superstars into a cohesive unit. However they should have few problems with this relatively kind group. The real test will come when they face organised sides like Atletico Madrid and Chelsea in the knockout rounds.

Liverpool are back in the Champions League for the first time in five years after finishing second in the Premier League. They are a devastatingly quick side, but lack any real defensive solidity, and that will be their undoing. They should come through this group, however.

Basel have improved enormously over the last five years. Like a lot of clubs they are forced to sell their best players year after year, but there are always youngsters ready to replace the departed. They did the double over Chelsea in the group last year and could trouble Liverpool for second place. Bulgarian minnows Ludogorets Razgrad, who qualified thanks to Cosmin Moti's (a defender, believe it or not) penalty shootout heroics - in goal, will surely finish bottom of the pile.

Top Bet: Real Madrid to be Highest Scoring Champions League Team at 2/1

Group C: Bayer Leverkusen (2/1), Benfica (5/2), Monaco (11/4), Zenit St Petersburg (7/2)

The most interesting group. Never have the four teams in a group been so tight in the betting, but it is Benfica at 5/2 who look the value to come top of the pile. They have made a strong start to their league season and have a remarkably consistent record in European competition. They are a more balanced outfit than the others in the group and are my tip to come first. Bayer Leverkusen have scored nine (but conceded five) in just three games so far this season. Roger Schmidt's side will be able to concentrate on the Champions League this year with the league title almost certainly going to Bayern, but there are questions about their defence which, apart from Kyriakos Papadopoulos, looks weak.

Monaco have made a dreadful start to the season with defeats to Lyon, Bordeaux and Lorient. Having lost their two prized assets, Falcao and James Rodriguez, there is a sense that the project in the principality is being scaled back somewhat. The team is a mishmash of journeymen on big wages and people still there from their days in Ligue 2. They look an overrated outfit.

Zenit St. Petersburg are a real enigma. They have won 7 out of 7 in the league so far. Their team is an excellent balance of Russian grit and foreign flair, but so often they bottle it on the European stage. They nearly went out to Cypriot minnows Apollon Limassol in qualifying, and were poor in the Champions League last year. It will be fascinating to see how they do.

Top Bet: Benfica to win the group at 5/2.

Group D: Arsenal (11/10), Borussia Dortmund (11/10), Galatasaray (8/1), Anderlecht (28/1)

Arsenal simply never go out in the group stages and are probably better value than the 11/10 suggests to win this heat in what should really be a two-horse race. However Arsenal's luck with injuries at the moment is a reason to be cautious about steaming into them too hard.

All four teams in this group will be relying strongly on their home records: Arsenal are excellent at beating average teams at home, Dortmund and Gala rely on famously hostile home atmospheres, while Belgian champions Anderlecht scored 49 goals in 20 games at the Constant Vanden Stock last year.

Perhaps the best bet here is to back the draw in the opening game between Borussia Dortmund and Arsenal at the Westfalenstadion. At 11/4 the odds suggest a high-scoring game, but Arsenal have drawn three times out of four this year and 10 of their last 13 Champions League games have yielded under 2.5 goals. A draw is not a bad result for either side - if they draw with each other and beat Galatasaray and Anderlecht that will be enough to qualify, and I don't think this match will be as open as people suggest.

Top Bet: Borussia Dortmund v Arsenal to be a draw at 11/4

Group E: Bayern Munich (8/15), Manchester City (9/4), Roma (8/1), CSKA Moscow (40/1)

There is a strong argument that Bayern Munich have gone backwards under Pep Guardiola. Their style of football has morphed into tiki-taka, which now seems defunct after a series of high-profile heavy defeats from teams playing that style. While they are still a strong collective unit, it will take a lot for Bayern to come back from their 5-0 aggregate defeat in last season's semi-final with Real Madrid.

Manchester City have still not really made a mark on the Champions League this year, but that looks likely to change. Their squad has masses of experience of top-level football and look good value to get a result at the Allianz Arena in their first match.

This Roma side are one of the most exciting teams to have emerged from Italy in years, and must not be underestimated. They finished second to Juventus in Serie A after years in the doldrums. Daniele De Rossi, Miralem Pjanic, Kevin Strootman, Mattia Destro and Ashley Cole are all top-level European players and it will be fascinating to see how they do. CSKA Moscow will be a nuisance on home turf, but lack the quality to progress from a very strong section.

Top Bet: Manchester City Draw No Bet vs Bayern Munich at 11/4

Group F: Barcelona (4/11), Paris Saint Germain (9/4), Ajax (25/1), APOEL Nicosia (80/1)

Barcelona and PSG will qualify from this group, with Ajax very likely to finish third, but the real interest comes in who will top the group. Barcelona have topped their Champions League group seven years in a row, but that run could come to an end here. PSG were very unlucky not to knock the Catalans out at the quarter final stage two years ago and, since then, PSG have improved and Barca have declined.

This is very much a transition year for Barcelona under their fourth coach in the last four years, their former defender Luis Enrique. While Barcelona face another three-way fight for their La Liga crown, the Parisians are almost guaranteed to win Ligue 1, meaning they can focus more heavily on European competition. Assuming they don't slip up in the games with Ajax and APOEL, I'm backing PSG to get the better of Barcelona in their head-to-head with them.

Ajax, four times winners, have yet again had to sell many of their best players. Barcelona and PSG are not the kind of sides Ajax will do well against, as both will look to dominate possession. APOEL remarkably qualified for the quarter-finals in 2011-12, but a repeat of that would be an even bigger shock this time:

Top Bet: PSG to win the group at 9/4

Group G: Chelsea (1/4), Schalke 04 (9/2), Sporting Lisbon (9/1), NK Maribor (66/1)

Chelsea will have no problems here. In fact, they should have the section tied up four games in, allowing them to rest players in the final two fixtures. Chelsea face Schalke first up at Stamford Bridge, whom they beat 3-0 twice at this stage last season. They are a relatively easy team to play against, being so susceptible to the counter-attack.

Schalke will not win the group, but they should not face much competition for second. Sporting are a long way behind Porto and Benfica as the third best team in Portugal and their defence will be significantly weakened with the departure of Marcos Rojo to Manchester United. They have drawn three times already in the league this season.

Maribor are in the group stage for the first time in 15 years after defeating Celtic in the qualifying round. They have been a plucky force for a few years now and are experienced in European football with three consecutive Europa League group stages. They could get some results at home but, like most minnows, will be lucky to get anything on the road.

Top Bet: 1st - Chelsea 2nd - Schalke at 4/5

Group H: FC Porto (5/4), Athletic Bilbao (15/8), Shakhtar Donetsk (11/4), BATE Borisov (28/1)

The second most interesting group. This is a classic case of three good sides and one minnow. Porto are group stage experts, while Athletic Bilbao are in the competition for the first time since the 1998/99 season. Bilbao's policy of only picking Basque players limits them somewhat, but it creates a great team spirit and a laudable continuity. They will be tough opponents, especially at home.

Shakhtar Donetsk have had a nightmare of a summer. Their home city is a warzone, forcing Mircea Lucescu's men to play their home games hundreds of miles away in Lviv. Despite several high-profile sales, their team is the familiar mix of Ukrainian defensive players and Brazilian attackinh players. Douglas Costa, Bernard and Taison are seemingly the next on the production line, and they make the Miners' games particularly entertaining.

BATE Borisov caused a massive shock two years ago when they beat Bayern Munich 3-1 at home. The Belarusians are an organised, easily-underrated outfit but they struggle for goals.

Top Bet: FC Porto to win to nil against BATE Borisov at 5/6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CL - Matchday 1 Best Bets
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

Champions League Preview · Matchday 1 Odds
The Champions League group stages can be thin on real drama, particularly in the opening stages. The gulf between the elite teams and the fourth seeds is, at times, vast. Five teams (Malmo, Ludogorets Razgrad, Basel, APOEL Nicosia and BATE Borisov) are all at 12/1 or longer to win their opening game.

The Banker: Chelsea -1.5 Asian Handicap vs Schalke 04 at 1.925 (Game - Wed, Sept. 16)

Chelsea have been dealt a very friendly-looking group which they should tie up with something to spare. They were in the same section as Schalke last time and secured two 3-0 wins against the men from Gelsenkirchen. Schalke are the kind of team that play right into Jose Mourinho's Chelsea's hands. They play a possession game with a very high line, making them extremely easy to counter-attack against. With Eden Hazard, Diego Costa and Andre Schürrle Chelsea have real pace on the break and could find some attacking joy at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night.

The Solid Bet: Borussia Dortmund to draw with Arsenal at 11/4 (Game - Tue, Sept. 16)

The cliché of these two teams is one of carefree attacking spirit, but with Arsenal in Europe that is not the case. Only three of the Gunners' last 13 outings in Europe have yielded under 2.5 goals, and they will be keen to avoid defeat at the Westfalenstadion on Tuesday.

The other two teams in this group are Galatasaray and Anderlecht, well behind these two in the betting. Both teams know that, as long as there are no major slip-ups in their other four games, draws between the two sides are not bad results at all. Arsenal have already drawn three times in the Premier League this season and are yet to really hit their stride. Dortmund have won two in a row after an opening day defeat to Bayer Leverkusen, but an injury to star player Marco Reus will hit them hard and will weaken their attacking threat.

The Outsider: Manchester City to win at Bayern Munich at 17/4 (Game - Wed, Sept. 16)

Bayern Munich have seemingly gone backwards under Pep Guardiola. Their style of football is much slower than it was under Jupp Heynckes, and the possession of the ball seems designed more to stop the other team having chances than actually creating opportunities themselves. This is a much less fearsome Bayern side than the 2013 winners. Manchester City won 3-2 in what was a dead game in this fixture last year and have the ruthless efficiency in attack that they can make the most of their chances on goal.

After three forgettable campaigns at Europe's top table there is a sense that, having won their second domestic crown of the super-rich era, City have matured enough to be a real force in Europe, and they can demonstrate that in Bavaria.

The First Goalscorer: Zlatan Ibrahimovic for PSG at Ajax at 7/2 (Game - Wed, Sept. 16)

Group F has already been dubbed 'Group Zlatan' as it features three of the Swede's former teams. Now at PSG, he plays his old side Ajax at the Amsterdam Arena and looks good value to hit the back of the net first. Ibrahimovic scored 10 times in 8 games in the Champions League last season and has already notched up five in four domestically this term. While he is not quite at the Ronaldo/Messi level of goalscoring, the Malmo-born man is not far behind.

Ibrahimovic could be the force that propels PSG a long way in this competition. With no real challenge to their retention of the Ligue 1 title the Parisians can concentrate a lot of their efforts on this tournament. There is a real chance they could end Barcelona's run of coming top of their group seven years in a row. PSG look a relatively settled side, while Barcelona are in the midst of an overhaul under Luis Enrique.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

National League

Nationals-Braves
Roark is 1-3, 4.01 in his last four starts.
Harang is 1-3, 6.23 in his last four starts.

Washington won seven of its last nine games.
Braves lost seven of their last eight games.

Over is 7-2 in last nine Harang starts.

Marlins-Mets
Eovaldi is 0-5, 6.61 in his last six starts.
Colon is 0-4, 7.65 in his last four home starts.

Miami lost four of its last six games.
Mets lost four of their last five games.

Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Eovaldi starts; seven of last eight Colon starts went over the total. .

Reds-Cubs
Cueto is 3-0, 1.17 in his last three starts.
Arrieta is 1-1, 4.96 in his last three starts.

Reds lost three of their last four games.
Cubs lost eight of their last ten games.

Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Cincinnati games.

Brewers-Cardinals
Peralta is 1-3, 7.84 in his last four starts.
Lynn is 4-1, 2.62 in his last seven starts.

Brewers won four of their last five games.
St Louis won last three games, allowing six runs.

Four of last five Milwaukee games stayed under.

Dodgers-Rockies
Haren is 3-0, 1.38 in his last four starts.
Matzek is 3-1, 1.23 in his last four starts.

Dodgers won eight of their last ten games.
Colorado lost its last seven games, scoring eleven runs.

Six of last eight Colorado games stayed under; over is 7-2-1 in Dodgers' last ten games.

Giants-Diamondbacks
Peavy is 5-1, 2.01 in his last six starts.
Collmenter is 2-0, 0.98 in his last four starts.

Giants lost last three games by combined score of 27-4.
Arizona won last three games, scoring 24 runs. .

Over is 4-0-1 in last five Giant games.

Phillies-Padres
Burnett is 2-7, 6.36 in his last nine starts.
Kennedy is 1-3, 5.28 in his last five starts.

Phillies lost six of their last nine games.
San Diego lost eight of its last eleven games.

Five of last seven San Diego games went over total.


American League

Blue Jays-Orioles
Hutchison is 2-0, 1.86 in his last three starts.
Jimenez is 1-1, 8.36 in his last three starts.

Toronto lost three of its last four games.
Orioles won eight of their last nine games.

Seven of last ten Hutchison starts went over total.

Bronx-Rays
Pineda is 1-2, 2.63 in his last six starts.
Odorizzi is 1-1, 2.89 in his last three starts. .

Bronx lost four of its last five games.
Tampa Bay won three of its last four games.

Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Tampa Bay games; last five Bronx games stayed under the total.

Tigers-Twins
Porcello is 0-3, 7.72 in his last three starts.
Nolasco is 0-5, 6.28 in his last seven starts. .

Tigers won seven of their last eight games.
Minnesota lost nine of its last eleven games.

Eight of last eleven Detroit games went over total.

White Sox-Royals
Bassitt is 0-1, 4.38 in two starts this season.
Hendriks is 0-1, 6.35 in his last four starts.

White Sox won four of their last six games
Kansas City lost five of its last eight games.

Over is 3-1-1 in last five Kansas City games.



Indians-Astros
Kluber is 2-0, 1.56 in his last couple starts.
Tropeano won his first MLB start, allowing two runs in five IP.

Cleveland lost six of its last eight games.
Astros won ten of their last fourteen games. .

Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Houston games.

Mariners-Angels
Elias is 1-3, 2.42 in his last five starts
Rasmus is 0-0, 3.38 in three starts; this is a bullpen game for Halos.

Seattle lost six of its last eight games.
Angels won ten of their last eleven games.

Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Seattle games.

Rangers-A's
Tepesch is 0-3, 6.14 in his last four starts.
Kazmir is 0-3, 8.20 in his last four starts.

Texas won its last three games, allowing six runs.
A's lost 12 of last 17 games, but won last two.

Last five Oakland games stayed under the total.


Interleague game

Red Sox-Pirates
Ranaudo is 2-2, 6.10 in his last four starts.
Morton is 0-3, 6.58 in his last five starts.

Red Sox won three of its last four games.
Pittsburgh won eight of its last ten games.

Four of last five Boston games went over the total.


Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Roark 16-13; Harang 15-16
-- Eovaldi 10-20; Colon 15-13
-- Cueto 20-11; Arrieta 13-11
-- Peralta 17-12; Lynn 19-11
-- Haren 16-14; Matzek 5-13
-- Peavy 5-15/5-4; Collmenter 16-10
-- Burnett 12-19; Kennedy 14-16

-- Hutchison 15-14; Jimenez 7-13
-- Pineda 4-6; Odorizzi 12-17
-- Kluber 19-12; Tropeano 1-0
-- Bassitt 1-1; Hendriks 3-0/1-1
-- Porcello 16-12; Nolasco 8-16
-- Elias 12-16; Rasmus 3-0
-- Tepesch 7-12; Kazmir 19-10

-- Ranaudo 3-2; Morton 10-15

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Roark 4-29; Harang 8-31
-- Eovaldi 11-30; Colon 10-28
-- Cueto 7-31; Arrieta 5-24
-- Peralta 6-29; Lynn 8-30
-- Haren 13-30; Matzek 5-18
-- Peavy 9-29; Collmenter 9-27
-- Burnett 9-31; Kennedy 8-30

-- Hutchison 7-29; Jimenez 7-20
-- Pineda 2-10; Odorizzi 5-29
-- Kluber 6-31; Tropeano 0-1
-- Bassitt 0-2; Hendriks 0-5
-- Porcello 10-28; Nolasco 8-24
-- Elias 7-28; Rasmus 1-3
-- Tepesch 6-19; Kazmir 4-29

-- Ranaudo 1-5; Morton 5-25

Umpires
-- Wsh-Atl-- Underdogs are 7-6 in last thirteen TWelke games.
-- Mia-NY-- Eight of last twelve HGibson games stayed under.
-- Cin-Chi-- Visiting team won last eight Everitt games.
-- LA-Col-- Six of last eight Reyburn games stayed under.
-- SF-Az-- Favorites won last ten Kulpa games (over 6-3-1).
-- Phil-SD-- Six of last nine Rackley games went over.

-- Tor-Balt-- Favorites won six of last seven Fairchild games.
-- NY-TB-- Four of last five Drake games stayed under.
-- Cle-Hst-- Three of last four Hernandez games went over.
-- Chi-KC-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Barry games.
-- Det-Min-- Four of last six Blaser games stayed under.
-- Sea-LAA-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Baker games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Tuesday

Oakland -1.5 -109

Dodgers/Rockies under 10.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free play TUES: Cards w/ Lynn -160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JEFFREY JAMES

(Play of the Day)

#978 Oakland A’s with Kazmir ML -230 (10:05 edt)

A huge mismatch here with the A’s being outstanding at home while the Rangers are horrible on the road. Kazmir has been excellent at home as well this season. Just don’t see the Rangers having any motivation on this road this close to the end of a horrible season. Take the A’s as the play of the day.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | NY YANKEES at TAMPA BAY
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TAMPA BAY) a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a winning team, in September games
122-93 since 1997. ( 56.7% | 54.3 units )
5-5 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | TORONTO at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 81-55 (+29.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.4) , OPPONENT (3.7)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Detroit at Minnesota

The Twins look to bounce back from yesterday's 8-6 loss in the series opener as they face a Detroit team that is 1-4 in Rick Porcello's last 5 road starts. Minnesota is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+125). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Washington at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Roark) 15.247; Atlanta (Harang) 16.112 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+115); Over

Game 953-954: Miami at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Eovaldi) 14.786; NY Mets (Colon) 16.334 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line: NY Mets (-140); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-140); Under

Game 955-956: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 16.157; Cubs (Arrieta) 14.602 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); No Run Line Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); N/A

Game 957-958: Milwaukee at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.658; St. Louis (Lynn) 14.467 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-155); 7 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+135); Under

Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haren) 16.982; Colorado (Matzek) 13.556 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 10 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); Under

Game 961-962: San Francisco at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Peavy) 15.278; Arizona (Collmenter) 16.331 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115); Over

Game 963-964: Philadelphia at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Burnett) 13.763; San Diego (Kennedy) 15.318 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-125); Over

Game 965-966: Toronto at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 16.788; Baltimore (Jimenez) 15.302 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Under

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pineda) 16.238; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 14.847 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+100); Over

Game 969-970: Cleveland at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 16.677; Houston (Tropeano) 15.129 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-185); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-185); Under

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Bassitt) 13.809; Kansas City (Hendriks) 15.387 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 973-974: Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 14.164; Minnesota (Nolasco) 15.018 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 8 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+125); Under

Game 975-976: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Elias) 15.817; LA Angels (Rasmus) 14.709 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+110); Over

Game 977-978: Texas at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Tepesch) 14.765; Oakland (Kazmir) 16.421 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line: Oakland (-240); 7 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-240); Under

Game 979-980: Boston at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Ranaudo) 15.467; Pittsburgh (Morton) 17.076 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-175); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-175); Over