6-23-14

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::handshake::

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World Cup Game of the Day: Netherlands vs. Chile

Netherlands vs. Chile (+163, +180, Draw +250)

More than first place in Group B is at stake Monday afternoon when the Netherlands and Chile face off at Itaquerao Stadium in Sao Paulo. The winner of Monday's pivotal showdown between unbeaten teams will likely avoid having to face the host Brazilians in the first round of knockout play. The Netherlands trounced Spain 5-1 and squeaked past Australians 3-2, while Chile also defeated both opponents while allowing just one total goal in its two victories.

Neither team can be thrilled with the prospects of meeting the steadily improving Brazilians in the round of 16 - and the Dutch are in the drivers' seat in that regard, needing only a draw to win the group thanks to a better goal differential. "If you look ahead a bit, in theory you are better off than if you come in second," Netherlands star Robin van Persie told reporters. Van Persie will be on the sidelines for this one after picking up two yellow cards.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2

WORLD RANKINGS: Netherlands: No. 15; Chile: No. 14.

INJURY REPORT: Netherlands: F Robin van Persie will sit out the contest with two yellow cards; D Bruno Martins Indi suffered a concussion in the win over Australia and likely won't play. Chile: MFs Arturo Vidal and Charles Aranguiz did not train with the team earlier this week due to injury and are considered questionable for Monday.

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Holland have quite a good record against South American sides in this competition, and have already guaranteed qualification. A draw here will be enough to see the Dutch top the group. Chile on the other hand have a rather poor record against European sides winning only 2 of their last 11 match ups against Europeans. this one has all the makings of a great game, don't miss out." Covers Expert Footy Tipster

ABOUT THE NETHERLANDS: Van Persie doesn't believe his absence will torpedo the team's chance of running the table in group play. It may be hard to argue, with substitute Memphis Depay - who could get the start Monday - scored his first career international goal and set up another in the win over Australia. Van Persie believes the Netherlands should be wary of Chile, telling reporters: "I saw bits of Chile against Spain and they looked very good. They looked fit, they looked strong, they played together."

ABOUT CHILE: Vidal's tender Achilles tendon and Aranguiz's balky knee aren't the only concerns dogging coach Jorge Sampaoli: both players have yellow cards on their ledger, and another for either would result in a costly suspension. Vidal has said he isn't worried about a possible ban and would like to play in the group stage finale, but Sampaoli can ill afford to take the risk on either front. If both players sit, expect versatile midfielder Carlos Carmona to be slotted into the starting lineup in their place.

TRENDS:

* The teams have met just once, with the Netherlands earning the win via a drawing of lots following a 2-2 tie at the 1928 Olympics.
* Chile has won four of its last six World Cup matches after going winless in its previous 13.
* The Dutch haven't lost a World Cup group stage game since 1994.
* The Chileans have never won three consecutive World Cup games within the same tournament.

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Carlos Salazar Monday Night MLB Bookie Crusher

Seattle Mariners -146

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ANDRE RAMIREZ

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins

Over (-105)

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MLB

National League
Marlins-Phillies
Eovaldi is 0-1, 5.47 in his last four starts.
Hernandez is 1-3, 6.86 in his last four starts.

Marlins lost four of their last five games.
Phillies won five of last seven games, but lost last two.

Four of last five Hernandez starts went over total.

Reds-Cubs
Simon is 4-0, 3.37 in his last four starts.
Samardzija is 1-2, 6.95 in his last four starts.

Cincinnati won eight of its last eleven games.
Cubs lost three of their last four home games.

Four of last five Samardzija starts went over total.

Nationals-Brewers
Gonzalez is 0-3, 7.78 in his last four starts.
Garza is 2-0, 3.67 in his last four starts.

Washington lost its last four road games.
Brewers won six of their last seven games.

Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Garza starts.

Cardinals-Rockies
Lynn is 1-2, 1.89 in his last three starts.
Chacin is 1-1, 2.84 in his last three starts.

Cardinals won ten of their last fourteen games.
Colorado lost its last six games.

Over is 9-1-2 in last twelve Colorado games; under is 5-0-1 in Cards' last six.

Padres-Giants
Cuban rookie Despaigne is making MLB debut; he was 1-3, 7.61 in five AAA starts; PCL batters hit .356 against him.
Cain is 1-2, 7.41 in his last three starts.

San Diego lost eight of its last nine games.
Giants lost nine of their last twelve games.

Five of last seven Cain starts went over the total; eight of last nine San Diego games stayed under.

American League
Bronx-Blue Jays
Whitley is 3-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.
Stroman is 0-2, 4.66 in his last couple starts.

Bronx won eight of last twelve games, but lost last two.
Blue Jays lost five of their last six games.

Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Toronto home games.

White Sox-Orioles
Sale is 3-1, 2.37 in his last six starts.
Chen is 2-0, 2.13 in his last four starts.

White Sox lost their last seven road games.
Baltimore is 8-5 in its last thirteen home games.

Five of last seven Sale starts stayed under total.

Red Sox-Mariners
Lackey is 1-0, 2.28 in his last three starts.
Hernandez is 5-1, 1.78 in his last eight starts.

Red Sox lost ten of their last thirteen road games.
Seattle won six of its last eight games.

Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Boston games.

Interleague games
Pirates-Rays
Volquez is 1-2, 7.04 in his last three starts.
Cobb is 1-1, 1.32 in his last two starts.

Pirates won eight of their last twelve road games.
Tampa Bay won three of its last four games.

Under is 6-2-1 in Cobb's starts this season.

Dodgers-Royals
Greinke is 1-1, 2.25 in his last two starts.
Guthrie is 2-0, 2.19 in his last two starts.

Dodgers won seven of their last nine games.
Kansas City lost its last four games.

Six of last seven Guthrie starts stayed under total.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Eovaldi 6-15; RHernandez 6-13 (4 of last 7)
-- Simon 5-14; Samardzija 7-18
-- Gonzalez 5-10 (3 of last 4); Garza 7-15
-- Lynn 4-15; Chacin 3-9
-- Despaigne 0-0; Cain 5-11

-- Whitley 1-7; Stroman 2-4
-- Sale 0-10 (batters 1-31); Chen 5-14
-- Lackey 4-15; FHernandez 1-16

-- Volquez 5-14; Cobb 2-9
-- Greinke 3-15; Guthrie 4-15

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Monday's WCup Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

Croatia vs. Mexico (ESPN2, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Croatia play Mexico in what is effectively a play-off for who qualifies for the last 16 of the World Cup. The game takes place at the Arena Pernambuco in Recife and Croatia need to win to qualify. A draw or a defeat, and Mexico will progress.

Both sides have been impressive at the World Cup so far: Croatia were hugely unlucky to lose 3-1 to Brazil in the tournament’s opening game. They matched the Brazilians until a highly dubious penalty went against Niko Kovac’s side in the 71st minute. They then dismantled an appalling Cameroon side 4-0 in a ruthless display of attacking football. Mario Mandzukic, the wantaway Bayern Munich striker, scored twice.

Mexico faced Cameroon first up and, after having two perfectly good goals ruled out for offside, eventually broke through to win 1-0 thanks to Oribe Peralta’s strike. El Tri then put in a superb display to frustrate Brazil to a 0-0 draw, with goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa sensational.Their two results have been particularly notable because their defence was seen as a weakness before the tournament.

Neither team has any issues with injury or suspension, although there is a chance Mexico boss Miguel Herrera could introduce Manchester United forward into the team. However, this looks unlikely given that a draw would send his team through.

Croatia is the very slight favourites at odds of 3/1 with sportsbook.ag, and given the confidence with which they played when needing a win against Cameroon, this price looks quite attractive. Worries about a vulnerable defence have been eased a bit with impressive performances from Dejan Lovren and Sime Vrsaljko, while the midfield is packed with invention and creativity. Wingers Ivica Olic (naturally a striker) and Ivan Perisic (normally plays out wide, but has the physique of a centre-forward) both have plenty of goals in them.

Mexico is available at 8/5, but given that a draw would see them through, fanciers of the Mexicans will be more tempted by quotes of 5/2 about a stalemate. However the pace of Croatia’s attack could give them a hard time, and their centre-backs, while strong and brave, are not quick.

Over 2.5 goals at 11/10 looks much too long. Both sides’ strength is arguably their attack, and given the way teams have approached crucial matches at the World Cup so far, it is surprising to see anything longer than evens on a high-scoring game.

In the first goalscorer market, Mario Mandzukic leads the betting at 9/2, but my favourite bet here is the 6/1 Ivica Olic, who just seems to keep on going. His fantastic work rate means he gets a lot of chances, and he gave Benoît Assou-Ekotto of Cameroon a torrid time the last time Croatia played. For Mexico, Oribe Peralta is 6/1 with Giovani Dos Santos 8/1.

Top bets: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10, Ivica Olic to score first at 6/1


Brazil vs. Cameroon (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The other match in Group A sees probably the biggest mismatch of the tournament. Brazil, needing a point to qualify and a win to all but guarantee winning the group, play a Cameroon side that has been the worst team at the World Cup so far.

Having offered nothing in a 1-0 defeat by Mexico, Cameroon, nicknamed the ‘Indomitable Lions’ disintegrated completely in an indisciplined 4-0 loss to Croatia. Alex Song was sent off, and Assou-Ekotto and Benjamin Moukandjo started fighting each other on the pitch. Even at 21/1, Cameroon make no appeal.

Brazil is as short as 9/100, with a draw at 19/1, but there is no appeal in this market. Brazil is 2/1 just to keep a clean sheet. There may be more value in the first goalscorer market. Neymar is the market leader at 5/2, but for someone who isn't a centre-forward this should be avoided.

Fred has lived up to his reputation as Brazil’s weakness with two poor performances. The best bet here is to get on Oscar to score first at 9/2. He was Brazil’s brightest spark against Croatia and plays with more freedom for Brazil than for Chelsea.

Top bet: Oscar to score first at 9/2


Netherlands vs. Chile (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The Netherlands face Chile in one Group B at the Arena Corinthians in São Paulo. Both teams have already qualified, notably at the expense of Spain, so this match is a decider for who wins the group. Chile need to win, or they face the likely task of a game against the hosts Brazil in the last 16, so there is plenty to play for.

Before the tournament started, Netherlands was the favorites for this game, but Chile have been backed into very slight favouritism at 31/20. There is good reason for this - Sampaoli’s men were more convincing in their defeat of Australia than the Dutch were, and they probably afforded Spain fewer chances than Holland. A Dutch victory is at 8/5 with a draw a 5/2 shot.

Bookmakers are expecting a high-scoring game, and with less at stake than usual in World Cup matches, they should not be disappointed and over 3.5 goals is as short as 17/10. This is a decent price given that these are two teams with much better attacks than defences. Chile is highly vulnerable to crosses, and the Netherlands should send many more of these over than Spain did. Chile has more attacking options than almost anyone in the tournament, and their attacking movement is a joy to behold.

Top bet: Over 3.5 goals at 17/10


Australia vs. Spain (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Well, who would have thought it? The game between Australia and Spain, instead of being a match between the group winners and the whipping-boys, is in fact a battle to avoid the wooden spoon. Spain, whatever the outcome here, will leave Brazil embarrassed. They have utterly failed to realise that their tiki-taka style of football has been worked out, and they have been well and truly blasted off their perch.

Australia has lost twice, but scorelines of 3-1 and 3-2 demonstrate that Australia have made an excellent account of themselves. Their side is young, and they have given defences some real problems. having been around 18/1 to win this match before the tournament started, the two sides’ contrasting fortunes has seen Australia shortening into 11/2. Spain are 2/5 with a draw 17/4.

Spain’s defense has been so porous, with seven conceded from two games, that Both Teams To Score simply cannot be ignored at 10/13. They struggle to deal with crosses, and in Tim Cahill Australia have one of the best jumpers in world football. He could give Pique and Ramos some serious problems.

Top bet: Both Teams To Score at 10/13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Netherlands, Chile play for Group B win on Monday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox

2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

NETHERLANDS vs. CHILE

Kickoff: Monday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Arena Corinthians – Sao Paulo, Brazil

Line:
Netherlands +145, Chile +177, Tie +240
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -125, Under +105)

Two of the undefeated teams in Group B clash Monday afternoon to decide the group champion when Netherlands takes on a Chile team that is fresh off an upset that eliminated defending champion Spain.

The Netherlands surprised people when they blew out Spain 5-1, and they followed up that result with gutsy performance in a come-from-behind, 3-2 win against Australia. Chile wasn’t given much of a chance before the tournament due to the perception of them being a poor defensive team. So far in this tournament, however, they have allowed just one goal in two games and are already assured a spot in the Round of 16.

Twenty minutes into their second Group B match, Arjen Robben gave Netherlands a 1-0 lead, but Australia wouldn’t take long to even the score. Just one minute later, Tim Cahill found the back of the net on what was surely to be one of the highlights of this tournament when he rifled a perfect volley past the goalie. At the 54-minute mark, Mile Jedinak converted on a penalty to give Australia a 2-1 lead. The Dutch could have folded there, but they kept putting pressure on Australia. At the 58-minute mark, Robin van Persie would even the score for Netherlands and then 68 minutes into the game, they took a 3-2 lead on a goal by Memphis Depay. That would end up being the game-winner and Netherlands picked up a much-deserved victory after outshooting Australia 14-8 on goal and holding a 52% possession advantage. The Dutch can now improve their seeding in the knockout round with a victory over Chile.

After defeating Australia 3-1 in their opening game, Chile needed to defeat the defending champions in order to secure a spot in the Round of 16. The team did just that, as it displayed some very solid defense throughout the match. Twenty minutes into the game, Chile took the lead on a goal by Eduardo Vargas. They scored again at the 43-minute mark on a right-footed shot by Charles Aranguiz. The final score of the game was 2-0, which sent Spain home after they finish up group play at the same time as this match will take place. Chile was actually outplayed in the game by the defending champs who outshot them 9-4 and had possession for 56% of the time. But Chile was able to finish two of its four shots on goal, and scoring is all that really matters. They can make a huge statement with a win over red-hot Netherlands on Monday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spain, Australia close out World Cup journey Monday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox

2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

AUSTRALIA vs. SPAIN

Kickoff: Monday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Arena Da Baixada – Curitiba, Brazil

Line:
Spain -256, Australia +550, Tie +425
Over/Under: 3 Goals (Over -115, Under -105)

Two teams that will be heading home after group play square off Monday afternoon when Australia takes on defending World Cup champion Spain.

Australia opened up group play with a 3-1 loss to Chile and headed into a must-win affair with Netherlands in their second game. The result of that game will leave some feeling nauseous, as Australia blew a one-goal lead in the second half and fell 3-2 and were eliminated from advancing in this tournament. Spain’s World Cup has been one of the most disappointing letdowns in the history of sports. After winning the tournament in 2010, the defending champions will wrap up their Cup journey on Monday after two humiliating defeats by a combined score of 7-1.

Australia lost its first game of group play and then set its sights on a matchup with Netherlands that they absolutely needed to win. After falling behind 1-0 at the game’s 20-minute mark on an Arjen Robben goal for Netherlands, Tim Cahill scored to even up the game 1-1 just a minute later. Australia would eventually take a 2-1 lead on a penalty-kick goal by Mile Jedinak at the 54-minute mark, but that would be the last goal Australia scored, while Netherlands answered with two of their own. The first goal was scored at the 58-minute mark and the game-winner came 10 minutes later. Australia lost the battle in both shots on goal (14-8) and time of possession (52% to 48%). They now play a meaningless match against Spain on Monday.

After an embarrassing 5-1 loss to Netherlands in their opening match of group play, Spain needed to win against Chile to keep its hopes alive in group play. Unfortunately for them, they were unable to find the back of the net. Despite completely dominating play against Chile, Spain left empty-handed in a 2-0 defeat. They won the time of possession battle, as they had the ball for 56% of the game compared to 44% for Chile. They also had nine shots on goal, which more than doubled the four of their opponents. Not finishing their opportunities will be the theme of the 2014 World Cup for Spain. They got themselves in positions to score, holding a 7-1 advantage in corner kicks, but they were unable to find the back of the net.

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Mexico, Croatia look to advance Monday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox

2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

CROATIA vs. MEXICO

Kickoff: Monday, 4:00 p.m. EDT
Arena Pernambuco – Recife, Brazil

Line:
Croatia +150, Mexico +160, Tie +250
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +115, Under -135)

Croatia and Mexico meet Monday afternoon in what will be a Group A match with massive implications in terms of who will be advancing to the knockout round.

Croatia was unable to pick up a victory over Brazil in its opening match of group play, but the club certainly competed throughout the course of that game. They followed up that loss with a dominant showing against Cameroon and have at least given themselves a chance to advance to the Round of 16. Mexico may not have beaten Brazil in their last game, but they were able to come away with a 0-0 draw. They are now in position to advance past the group stage if they are able to defeat Croatia.

After losing their World Cup opener 3-1 to Brazil, Croatia needed to defeated Cameroon, and they had no problem doing that with a 4-0 blowout. Croatia was dominant in their performance, as they outshot Cameroon 14-7 on goal. They didn’t have much of an edge in time of possession with just 51%, but they made the most of their time with the ball. Eleven minutes into the game, Ivica Olic scored to give Croatia a 1-0 lead, and they piled it on once the second half started. Ivan Perisic made it 2-0 at the 48-minute mark and Mario Mandzukic added two goals at 61 minutes and 73 minutes to give Croatia an impressive victory. A win over Mexico would have them advancing to the knockout round.

Not many people gave Mexico much of a chance against Brazil, but they stood their ground and were able to come away with a scoreless tie. Guillermo Ochoa was monumental in securing that tie for his team, coming away with some really outstanding saves. Brazil was flying all over the field for the entire game, outshooting Mexico 8-3 on goal in the contest. They also had possession for 53% of the game compared to Mexico who had it for just 47%. Ochoa, however, was able to blank Brazil and that now puts Mexico in a great position to advance to the single-elimination round. They will need to beat a Croatia team that can also advance with a victory, so both of these teams will be hungry.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brazil looks to hammer Cameroon on Monday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox

2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

CAMEROON vs. BRAZIL

Kickoff: Monday, 4:00 p.m. EDT
Nacional – Brasilia, Brazil
Line:
Brazil -909, Cameroon +1900, Tie +850
Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (Over Even, Under -120)

Brazil was a heavy favorite to win the 2014 World Cup, but they have not fared as well as many expected them to in group play. They face Cameroon on Monday in a match that could shake things up in the knockout rounds.

Cameroon was given the worst odds to advance to the knockout rounds out of Group A and they have shown why with two losses in a row. They will not be advancing in the tournament, but could throw things off for the home team with a shocking win Monday.

Cameroon played a close game against Mexico in their first game of group play, but they came away with a 1-0 loss and were much worse in their second match. Cameroon played against Croatia and they were dominated right from the start. Eleven minutes into the game, Ivica Olic scored to put Croatia up 1-0 and that goal would have been all Croatia needed, but they wound up pounding their opponent by a 4-0 score. Cameroon had just seven shots on goal compared to Croatia’s 14 and they have not scored in the tournament so far. Croatia added goals at the 48-minute, 61-minute and 73-minute marks in the blowout. Cameroon will be sent home after their match with Brazil, but they could make a mark on the tournament by upsetting the home favorites.

Brazil played against Mexico in their second game of group play and despite being expected to win, they were able to only come away with a 0-0 tie. They ran into a hot goaltender and couldn’t find the back of the net. A win over Cameroon is now monumental for Brazil’s chances to win this tournament as the host and pre-World Cup favorite to win it all.

Brazil was able to create some opportunities in their match against Mexico, but the efforts of Guillermo Ochoa were too much for them to handle. Ochoa made some stellar saves in the first half, and not many goaltenders around the world could’ve done what Ochoa did. Brazil outshot Mexico 8-3 on goal and had possession of the ball for 53% of the game. They must, however, simplify things in the offensive zone. Chances are good for the heavily-favored squad, but they need to be able to finish. If Brazil does not beat Cameroon, they could be in serious jeopardy of advancing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

This team keeps cashing in for under bettors
Stephen Campbell

The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the top under teams in baseball recently, evidenced by 10 of their last 12 games going under the total as of Sunday. The O's take on the Chicago White Sox Monday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Sportsbooks currently has the ChiSox as -125 faves with a total of eight.



Reds, Simon fantastic on the road

Alfredo Simon gets the nod for the Cincinnati Reds Monday against the lowly Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The Reds have been road warriors as of late with Simon starting, posting a 7-1 record in his last eight road starts.

Sportsbooks currently has the Cubbies as -108 faves for the NL Central matchup.



Rockies all offense, Over bettors not complaining

The Colorado Rockies have proven they're an offensive powerhouse this season, and it's showing in their lines. Through Sunday, the Over is 8-1-2 in their last 10 games.

The Rox host the St. Louis Cardinals Monday at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Sportsbooks currently has the Cards as -112 faves with a total of 10.5.



Royals red-hot in interleague play

The Kansas City Royals have dominated interleague play recently, winning seven out of their last eight games against the National League through Sunday. They'll have another opportunity to keep that trend going when they host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium Monday.

Sportsbooks currently has the Royals as -150 faves with a total of 7.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | WASHINGTON at MILWAUKEE
Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MILWAUKEE) starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts
52-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.5% | 27.2 units )
5-5 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | LA DODGERS at KANSAS CITY
LA DODGERS are 23-8 (+16.6 Units) against the money line in Road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: LA DODGERS (5.6) , OPPONENT (3.2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Washington at Milwaukee

The Brewers (47-30) open their series against a Nationals team that is 1-6 in Gio Gonzalez' last 7 road starts versus a team with a winning record. Milwaukee is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130). Here are all of today's picks.


MONDAY, JUNE 23
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST


Game 901-902: Miami at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Eovaldi) 16.263; Philadelphia (Hernandez) 13.476
Dunkel Line: Miami by 3; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-105); Under


Game 903-904: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Simon) 16.360; Cubs (Samardzija) 14.696
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-105); N/A


Game 905-906: Washington at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 15.502; Milwaukee (Garza) 17.123
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); Over


Game 907-908: St. Louis at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 16.545; Colorado (Chacin) 15.079
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Over


Game 909-910: San Diego at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Despaigne) 15.429; San Francisco (Cain) 14.604
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Over


Game 911-912: NY Yankees at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Whitley) 16.810; Toronto (Stroman) 15.152
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+100); Over


Game 913-914: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 16.231; Baltimore (Chen) 14.593
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Under


Game 915-916: Boston at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 15.986; Seattle (Hernandez) 17.631
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: Seattle (-160); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-160); Under


Game 917-918: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Volquez) 17.132; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 16.047
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+130); Under


Game 919-920: LA Dodgers at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 14.715; Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.955
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+125); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play Mon:

Cards -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Monday

Dodgers/KC under 7.5

Brewers -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

FIFA World Cup

Australia +1 +137 over Spain

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)

June 23 – 12:00 PM EST. In what will be a matchup of no consequence or a fixture that would be nothing more than “academic” or “mathematical”, Australia will play a defeated defending champion in Spain, in what will shape up to be a difficult contest for the ailing Spanish. Most astonishing is the notion that Australia enters as such as heavy underdogs. The Spanish are in disarray and have only accumulated one goal on a dubiously charged penalty in their opening fixture against the Netherlands. Spain seems to be playing a severely worse brand of football with each fixture they participate in. Conversely, the Aussies have been playing better. In fact, the Australians made a game of their showdown with the Netherlands, taking a 2-1 lead in the opening stages of the second half. Spain was embarrassed against the Dutch and further controlled by Chile in their second effort.

This contest may be a dreadful trap game with Spain, who is certainly mourning their early exit from the World Cup. Australia has exuded a different mentality, one of enthusiasm and resilience. The Socceroos would respond to an early two-goal deficit against a great Chilean team and they would not be stymied by an early Dutch strike either. This game will certainly go 90 minutes and perhaps Australia can leave Brazil with three points and a much deserving reward of priding themselves on defeating a defending champion. Without question, the Australians have offered a distinguished effort and we expect nothing less here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

tony the sports betting champ

toronto {a}
ml or +1.5 if they get it

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Seattle Mariners -146 over Boston Red Sox
(System Record: 47-0, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 47-36

Rest of the Plays
Kansas City Royals +119 over LA Dodgers
Tampa Bay Rays -147 over Tampa Bay Rays
Chicago White Sox -120 over Baltimore O's

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Soccer Crusher
Mexico + Croatia UNDER 2.5 - FIFA pending
Chile +.5 over Netherlands
This match is happening in FIFA
(System Record: 594-21, won last 5 games)
Overall Record: 594-494-85

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Vip-Picks

Croatia – Mexico
Tip: Mexico -0
Odds: 1,97

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FYI San Diego pitching change Despaigne now going in place of Cashner.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMENTS

PERRY'S SELECTIONS
(June Results +8.10)
FIFA WORLD CUP
BRAZIL/ CAMEROON - OVER 3 -140 (4PM)
CROATIA/MEXICO - UNDER 2.5 -140 (4PM)
SPAIN/AUSTRALIA - OVER 2.5 -182 (12PM)
CHILE/NETHERLANDS - OVER 1.5 -400 (12PM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TENNIS

PJ'S SELECTIONS
(June Results +0.00)
ATP - WIMBLEDON @ WIMBLEDON, GREAT BRITAIN
T GABASHVILI +220 T PUETZ (1230PM)
L SAVILLE +190 D THIEM (1230PM)
S GROTH +170 A DOLGOPOLOV (330PM)
D BROWN +100 M BAGHDATIS (930AM)

WTA - WIMBLEDON @ WIMBLEDON, GREAT BRITAIN
M LARCHER DE BRITO +180 S KUZNETSOVA (330PM)
J GAJDOSOVA -160 S VOEGELE (1230PM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PowerPlayWins
Power Play of The Day

St. Louis Cardinals(-117)
Pitcher: Lynn
Game time: 5:30:00 PM (PST)

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Netherlands vs. Chile Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides

Considering what we have seen from these two teams so far, this might just be the best group game of the lot as Netherlands and Chile meet to determine top spot in Group B (12 p.m. ET, ESPN2).

As of Sunday afternoon, the game is being called a pick 'em in Las Vegas, with the Dutch and South American sides both priced at +165 odds at the LVH SuperBook. The draw is offered at +240 at the same book.

Both sides have a perfect record so far in the competition, having won both of their matches played in some style and scored plenty of goals (Netherlands have netted eight, Chile five).

There will therefore naturally be plenty of money going on the total, with OVER 2.5 priced at -135 in Las Vegas, and a 'both teams to score' prop offered at 4-to-7 odds elsewhere.

While both of those selections look highly likely, the price will only attract certain bettors, so a little more value is needed for those after bigger returns.

There could be an argument made for taking the price of 4-to-5 -- odds offered outside of Vegas -- for Chile to win either half given that their dynamic expansive brand of football could quite possibly cause the Dutch some serious problems.

But for serious value -- also outside of Vegas -- the price of 11-to-4 for both teams to score in the first half looks far too good to turn down.

Both these sides have scored in the first halves of their games so far in this tournament and they are two of the most attack-minded teams competing in Brazil.

Defensively they are also not the most solid, meaning we should definitely get goals at both ends.

With the tempo at which they play means it is likely to be a quick start to the game and backing both teams to score in the opening 45 minutes is a logical selection at a great price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spain vs. Australia Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides

Sunday night's clash in Curitiba (12 p.m. ET, ESPN) is a meaningless match nobody could have expected. While Australia may have been prepared to have reached their final group game having lost their opening two, few people predicted the fall from grace that has befallen the Spanish national side.

No defending champion had ever lost their opening two group games, but having suffered that ignominy and an early exit, La Roja will be desperate to restore a modicum of pride with a win, which is priced at -285 at the LVH SuperBook.

Australia meanwhile, who it could be argued have proved sterner tests for the Chile and Holland than Spain could manage, are offered at +800, and the draw available at +275, both at the LVH.

The damage is already done for Spain, though, and even a crushing victory will not alleviate the atmosphere of gloom currently engulfing the sporting pages of the country's press.

Having failed to score a goal from open play and conceded seven in the two games contested, Vicente Del Bosque's problems have been well documented, yet Australia should give them chances in front of goal.

The Socceroos have conceded six goals in their two matches played so far, and while they have given a decent account of themselves they have been exposed at the back on more than one occasion.

The same of course could be said of Spain, but the theoretical quality of the Spain side is supremely superior to that of their Antipodean opponents.

William Hill U.S. is offering Spain -1.5 goals at +110, and despite bettors getting their fingers burnt by backing Spain so far, this still looks like an excellent bet.

La Roja will want to bow out in style and, against a side they are infinitely better than technically, they should be able to beat that spread.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mexico vs. Croatia Betting Preview and Pick
By: Al Hain-Cole

Mexico and Croatia will go head to head for a place in the last 16 when they meet at the Arena Pernambuco in Recife on Monday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN).

A hard-fought draw against Brazil last time out put Miguel Herrera's side in the driving seat and, needing just a point to go through, they are available at +170 odds at the LVH SuperBook to make sure with a victory.

Having beaten Cameroon 4-0 in their last match, Vatreni are +165 favorites to leapfrog their opponents by collecting all three points in this one.

In the unlikely event of Brazil losing to Cameroon, a point would be enough to take both sides through, and you can get odds of +230 on them sharing the spoils here.

The total is 2.5 goals (UNDER -135).

There is no doubt who the hero was in the draw against Brazil, as goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa made a series of eye-catching saves that already have clubs queuing up to secure the free agent's signature after the tournament.

However, credit for securing that second consecutive clean sheet must be shared among the entire team, as their resilient, hard-working performance in going toe-to-toe with such clear favorites now leaves them requiring just a draw to go through.

With this in mind, El Tri are unlikely to take many chances going forward against a team who served up an ominous warning of their efficiency in front of goal in their romp against Cameroon.

Having conceded just two goals in their last four matches, the North Americans are more than capable of frustrating Niko Kovac's men just as they did Brazil, meaning that odds of even-money at William Hill U.S. are not to be missed on no more than one side finding the net (a full list of the bet shop’s props on Mexico-Croatia is below).

That bet would have paid out in each of the last four games for a Mexican side who have found the net just once themselves in that period, as well as two of Croatia's previous three.

Best bet: 'No' on both teams to score at even-money with William Hill U.S.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brazil vs. Cameroon Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides

Brazil would have expected to have wrapped up top spot in Group A before their final group match, yet the hosts have failed to convince in their opening two encounters despite remaining unbeaten.

A nervous and controversial win over Croatia was followed by a goalless draw against Mexico and, while nobody expects anything other than a win for Brazil over Cameroon, there is perhaps more pressure on Luiz Felipe Scolari's side for this match (4 p.m. ET, ESPN2) than they would have liked.

They are, of course, overwhelming favorites, priced at -1250 by CG Technologies in Las Vegas, while their African opponents are offered at a whopping 20-to-1. A draw is priced at +875.

Cameroon have already been eliminated after two poor performances in defeats against Mexico and Croatia, and they will be fearing the worst against Brazil.

The African side have been devoid of any real invention or creativity and will struggle to break down the hosts. Scolari's men should have enough to easily win and many will be tempted to back them on the goal-line of -2.5 goals (+115).

Instead, investing in a high-scoring first half with OVER 1.5 goals at +115 at the LVH SuperBook looks like a more appealing option.

If Brazil get an early goal, Cameroon could go to pieces, much like they did against Croatia, and, with the hosts needing a win, expect them to come out extremely forcefully from the off, meaning that two first-half goals looks likely.

Bet of the day: OVER 1.5 goals first-half at +115.

[golden contender]

Monday card has a Solid trio of Plays. In MLB the lead is a 5* 92% Totals system and a Double Perfect Angle side. There is also another World Cup Power Angle play. Sunday card sweeps going 4-0. Free MLB Play below.


On Monday the free play is on the Cincinnati Reds. Game 903 at 8:05 eastern. The Reds are averaging nearly 8 runs per game the past week and have dominated the Cubs here in Chicago winning 17 of the last 19. They have A. Simon on the mound and he has a 7-1 road record with a 2.66 era. He will oppose Hard luck starter J. Samardzija who never gets much run support. He subsequently has lost 6 of his 7 home starts. In his career he has a 1-5 record vs the Reds. The Cubs are going no where fast, once again this season. Look for the Reds to take the opener of the series tonight. On Monday its a Triple Power pack that has the 5* 92% MLB Totals Play and a Double Perfect side. In World Cup action its a solid Power Play winner. On Sunday the card sweeps cashing all 4 top plays. Jump on now and cash out. For the free MLB Play take the Reds. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Junkies


6/23/2014
Game: White Sox vs Orioles
Pick: Orioles ML (Bovada) (+100)

Recommended

Unit Play (Risk)
5 Units

Pick Write-Up
Key TRENDS for this game:


White Sox are 24-50 in their last 74 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

White Sox are 26-55 in their last 81 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

White Sox are 18-40 in their last 58 vs. a team with a winning record.

White Sox are 29-66 in their last 95 road games.

White Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.

White Sox are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

White Sox are 19-53 in their last 72 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

White Sox are 7-20 in their last 27 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

White Sox are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.

White Sox are 3-9 in their last 12 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

White Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite.

White Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

White Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.

White Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 games following a loss.

White Sox are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.

White Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.

White Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.

White Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 games on grass.
White Sox are 3-7 in Sales last 10 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

White Sox are 2-5 in Sales last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

White Sox are 2-5 in Sales last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.

White Sox are 3-8 in Sales last 11 road starts.

White Sox are 1-4 in Sales last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.

White Sox are 1-5 in Sales last 6 starts as a road favorite.

White Sox are 1-8 in Sales last 9 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.

White Sox are 1-8 in Sales last 9 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

White Sox are 0-4 in Sales last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

White Sox are 0-5 in Sales last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.

Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Orioles are 8-3 in their last 11 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Orioles are 7-1 in Chens last 8 starts as a home underdog.

Orioles are 6-1 in Chens last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Orioles are 16-5 in Chens last 21 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Orioles are 13-5 in Chens last 18 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Orioles are 7-3 in Chens last 10 starts vs. American League Central.

White Sox are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Baltimore.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Junkies (free play)

06/23 FREE PLAY32-16-3 L/51 FREE PLAYS!!Nationals vs Brewers (8:10 pm est.)
$100 MLB Play: Nationals ML +106 (Bovada)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZ WINNERS

2* Blue Jays -122

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Paul Leiner

100* Yankees +100

50* Phillies -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports Picks For Major League Baseball 6/23

4-unit Play Take #907 St. Louis Cardinals (-110) over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB weekend series: Five key takeaways
by DAVID MALINSKY

It is time to take an inside look at the pitches and swings from the MLB weekend series, isolating those key edges that can put you far ahead of the marketplace, and build your bankroll in the days ahead.

A’s – Sean Doolittle, does a lot

Did you see Sean Doolittle coming? No reason to feel bad if you didn’t; even the A’s themselves did not anticipate it. Which makes it a prime time to talk about just how shockingly good he has been.

One of the earliest columns of this season dealt with Oakland’s hopes that Jim Johnson would be the answer at closer, but there were doubts from this end because of how he had been overworked by Baltimore. It was a move the A’s made because they were not sure how good Doolittle was, or how ready, and it was among the rare personnel mistakes from this franchise in recent years. Johnson’s season has gone from bad to worse, with a 5.58 ERA, including nearly as many BB (17) as K’s (19), and he is becoming insignificant, having been given one save opportunity in over two months.

Enter Doolittle. First, one can excuse the talent evaluators for missing the boat, because it was not until after two knee surgeries in 2010 that relief pitching became his aim, first in the Arizona Fall League in 2011. He blazed his way through the Minors in 2012, literally, with ridiculous K/command rates (48 over 25 IP, vs. only seven BB). Then over 2012-13 he worked 116 1/3 IP in The Show, mostly low leverage, but when called on to close he was not successful, converting only three of nine save chances. So despite 120 K’s vs. 24 BB through that span, his failure in pressure settings made the acquisition of a proven closer an off-season priority. Johnson simply was not the right one, but indirectly that may have turned out quite well for the Oakland future. It led to Doolittle getting another opportunity for the role, and he has been absurdly good.

The overall numbers tell the tale – a 2.00 ERA, converting 10 of 11 save opportunities, and the historic 50 K’s vs. only 1 BB over 36 IP (no previous pitcher in the 20th or 21st Centuries had made it to 50 K’s with a lone BB). But if we isolate to his current stretch, it reaches a rare Baseball realm. Doolittle had a dismal outing at Houston on April 26, giving up hits to all four batters that he faced, and each of them came around to score in an Oakland loss. Instead of it shattering his confidence, it ignited a flame.

Flame is the proper word, because it is the high hard stuff that hitters have not been able to catch up to. Since that bad outing vs. the Astros he has dealt a 0.00 over 22 appearances (24 1/3 IP), with astounding rates of 37 K’s vs. only six hits and 1 BB (Tampa’s Ryan Hanigan, back on May 20). And since May 10 he has retired 57 of 61 batters, 29 via K’s. But while K’s often bring inflated pitch counts that can wear someone down, in the two series vs. Texas and Boston last week he needed just 40 pitches through four frames, despite striking out half of the batters he faced. And while fans might have been disappointed that he did not get a strikeout on Saturday, be dispatched three Red Sox batters on only seven pitches.

Projecting him going forward is not easy – no one has ever maintained these dominance levels over an extended period. But he is the rarity of a left-handed closer throwing high heat, and that will mean continued matchup advantages; it will take quite some time before individual hitters get enough looks at him to be able to settle in. He is also a work in progress, with only 178 1/3 professional innings under his belt, so there is the frightening aspect that this may not even be his best stuff yet. His development could be that final piece to an awfully strong Oakland puzzle.

Angels – The Closer search, in late June

While the A’s have found their answer for the closer role, Mike Scioscia is still in need of Rolaids. Perhaps literally, given the way the late innings have been faring for his bullpen. While Oakland will be difficult to chase down, the Angels lead the AL Wild Card race, which is fitting for a team that is #3 in RPG, based on #5 in both SLG and OPS. They are going to hit. And a starting rotation that sits at 3.53, #8 in the majors, can buy that offense enough innings to click most nights. It has been from the mound-work in the latter stages where things have gone wrong.

The Angel bullpen sports a 4.49 ERA that rates #26. Despite having 41 wins there have only been 16 saves, with only five teams worse (and those five are a collective 50 games under .500). Only the Pirates have more blown saves, and there have been nine losses after leading in the 7th inning or later, more than any other team.

The problem is that it is not just one or two performers having bad campaigns that could turn around, but the fact that the direction for the season was never really in place. They actually came in with as much “hope” as expectation that the pieces were there. Ernestso Frieri can challenge hitters with his heat (a career 12.1 K-per-9), but his league-low ground-ball rate is a danger zone for a closer. He has been roughed up to an 0-3/5.83 with three blown saves, allowing eight HR over just 29 1/3 IP, and that latter count extends to 19 over just 98 IP the L2 seasons. When he gets his next opportunity will be a question – he did not work in the Texas series, after a dismal road trip in which he was rocked for six runs over 1.1 IP, allowing hits to eight of the 13 batters he faced, culminating with the Nick Swisher grand slam in Cleveland on Thursday.

But where can Scioscia turn? Joe Smith can be an effective set-up man with the ground-balls he generates, but has already failed on four of 12 save chances, and is far too vulnerable vs. left-handed hitters. Kevin Jepsen lacks the control (4.3 BB-per-9), and has already blown a pair of saves in six tries. Cam Bedrosian got the chance twice on that recent road trip, and failed both times after being rushed to the Majors, not having thrown a single pitch at the AAA level (Baseball generously credits him with a “hold” for that dismal outing in Cleveland, when three of the four batters he faced came around to score).

There is not a good answer on this roster for a team with the talent to contend in the other departments. Which means that the Angel closer for the stretch run of the pennant chase is likely wearing another uniform right now (Huston Street?). Until such a deal happens you will need to navigate carefully when it looks like they brings a Play-On setting – the focus can be on the First Five Innings to negate those closer issues, or if it is a favorable matchup for the offense vs. an opposing starter, making Over a part of your portfolio.

Phillies – Cole Hamels, and the elusiveness of Wins

Hamels will get one more start before June turns into July, but a case can already be made that he has been the best starter in the Majors this month, a tidy 0.73 over 37 IP, with 40 K’s vs. only 27 hits allowed. But that falls under the radar a bit because he only has one win over those five starts. Baseball does that, through short samples. What has happened to Hamels since the start of the 2013 season is an entirely different matter.

This past Saturday afternoon at St. Louis was one of those typical heart-breakers for a pitcher. Hamels matched St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright pitch-for-pitch, with the game tied 1-1 into the bottom of the 8th. He ended up on the wrong end of a 4-1 defeat, wearing down as he reached 120 pitches, but also again a victim of a lack of support. Of the meager seven total bases the Philadelphia offense managed in the game, he provided three himself (a single and a double). But this is not anything new.

Hamels has worked to a sharp 2.76 over 13 starts this season, but has only two wins, with the Phillies going 4-9. Over the past two seasons he has dealt at a solid 3.37, yet has only been credited with a 10-18 personal W/L, with a dismal 17-29 for the team. To get 10 wins out of 46 starts at that allowance rate is not easy; there were 19 games in that span in which he allowed two ER or less, and was not rewarded.

Let’s establish some perspective. If we track all qualifying pitchers since the start of 2013, the three directly above him on the ERA charts are Jered Weaver, John Lackey and James Shields. They have gone 57-43. The three below him are C. J. Wilson, Patrick Corbin and Derek Holland. They have gone 48-30 (a lower count due to Corbin and Holland being on the DL this season). Hamels is in the middle of a group that has generated a 105-73 W/L mark, which shows how much of an outlier his 10-18 is. And contrast the 146-101 record of the teams involved, vs. the 17-29 for the Phillies.

When rating Hamels, all that should matter is the way that he has pitched, and not the final scores, especially those $$$ +/- charts. Had you wagered on every one of his starts this season you would be -$459, and over the L2 seasons it is -$2025. Those are dramatic numbers, but of no correlation to his performance level, and hence of precious little predictive value. If the markets attach weight to them and create a counterfeit currency, it could mean some “play on” value for his upcoming starts, especially with the slow NL East pace through the first couple of 2014 furlongs keeping the Phillies in the hunt, which should ultimately lead to better play behind him.

Cardinals – When power takes a (Matt) Holliday

This is going to be a challenging road trip for Mike Matheny and the Cardinals, getting on the plane without Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia from the starting rotation, both being placede on the DL. The task is made more difficult by the St. Louis offensive struggles, with one of the keys to being above .500 the fact that there have been four 1-0 wins already. Perhaps no one is more important to watch the next few days than Holliday, in his return to Coors Field.

Issues of the Cardinal offense were dealt with in an important earlier take, noting that their run production level in 2013 was far beyond the usual distribution for their base production, and a downgrade was in order. As the season progresses it has been quite a drop – only the Rays, Braves and Padres have scored fewer RPG. But it is not just Baseball being Baseball, and some of those 2013 bounces evening out; instead there are genuine concerns about the dip in power from Holliday.

To call Holliday a model of consistency through the years is an understatement – since joining the Cardinals his full-season BA has been between .295 and .312 each campaign, the OBA range from .379 to .394, and SLG from .490 to .532. His HR counts were 28, 22, 27 and 22, and his BB% ranged from a low of 10.2 to a high of 11.6. So while he turned 35 this past January, that consistency gave no indication of any imminent decline.

But decline has been the story. Through 74 games and 323 PA’s his swings have only generated a .261/.372/.382 line. It is the latter count that is the most alarming – it is more than 100 points below any previous season, and he has only five HR. It got to the point where Matheny penciled him in at #2 in the batting order on Sunday, the first time in that slot since 2010.

The Cardinals badly need power from Holliday, because it will come from few other slots in the lineup – they are tied with Kansas City for the fewest HR in the Majors with 42, and no other team has less than 53. It is even more important with the pitching staff facing those issues on this road trip. Hence, why the spotlight shines on him, starting Monday night in Denver. Holliday has belted out a .359/.426/.655 over his career in Coors Field, with 91 HR in 373 games. He will be up against a struggling pitching staff, with the Rockies not even knowing their Wednesday starter yet. A power surge in this park vs. those pitchers may not necessarily mean much, but the lack of a power surge could turn out to mean plenty.

Giants – Matt Cain, no longer “Lord of the Flies”

In reviewing the MLB weekday series a few days ago there was a take on Buster Posey’s declining power counts, and how that would be a particular issue for the Giants over the course of the summer, because of the struggles of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain in the starting rotation. Lincecum’s declining stuff was dealt with earlier in the season (you can click the link to the same column that focused on Jim Johnson above), but while Cain did not work this past weekend, his patterns are becoming established pretty clearly, so it is an appropriate time to re-define him as well. Especially since he is about to get MLB’s easiest matchup, a home game vs. the Padres, which can keep the markets a step behind.

Cain has put together a solid MLB career despite only having good, and not great, stuff, basically surviving by being a fly-ball pitcher on the West Coast, where a guy can make a good living out of that. There have been earlier takes here on Jered Weaver and Chris Young, and how modern metrics such as xFIP get blurred vision through their out distributions. Cain has been the same – in each of his first eight seasons his ERA was lower than his xFIP, three times by more than a full run. He appeared to be getting lucky consistently, with a career BABIP of .263, but fly-balls are turned into outs at a higher rate than ground-balls; the key is to keep them in the park, where the fielders can get a glove at them. After over 1,800 MLB innings, that key for Cain is no longer opening the locks the way it once did.

Cain fell off to 8-10/4.00 in 2013, only his second losing campaign, and his highest ERA since his first full season back in 2006. His K-per-9 was above his career average and his BB-per-9 was below it, both positives, and his BABIP checked in at a favorable .260 again. No sign of decline there, but his HR/FB rate was 10.8 percent, the highest of his career. Now 2014 brings a 1-5/4.52 so far, and some of the peripherals are disturbing. First note that his 6.9 K-per-9 would be a career low (not counting 2005, when he only made seven starts), while his 3.4 BB-per-9 would be the highest since 2008. His Swinging Strike rate is also at a career bottom. But the big alarm is again the HR/FB rate, now up to 15.1. While that might seem like an outlier that could pull back, for a veteran with a good track record, it marks the third straight season in which it has risen appreciably. There is something to be said for that. And to have the highest ERA of his career, despite a favorable .249 BABIP, is a genuine warning – his FIP of 5.02 is more than a run higher than any other full season, and his xFIP is the highest since 2008.

Cain will not completely implode because he is a crafty competitor, and can still get away with fly-balls from his home mound, plus those division road parks in Los Angeles and San Diego. But there is no appreciable reason for him to return to his past form – this simply might be who he is right now.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INDIAN COWBOY (MLB)

3* Chicago Cubs-110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO (MLB)

2* St. Louis Cardinals -115

1* SF Giants-140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOODFELLA

Monday Night MLB Team Total

CINCINNATI REDS – OVER 3.5 RUNS (@BOL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RIVER CITY SHARPS

The Orioles host the White Sox in Camden Yards today to start a 3 game series and will send Wei-Yin to the mound opposing Chris Sale. Chen benefits from a 6.59 run-support average that is among the best marks in the majors. He hasn’t lost since May 3, going 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA in his last eight outings after giving up three runs over 6 2/3 innings last Monday in a 5-4 loss at Tampa Bay. Sale is pitching well also (6-1, 2.20) and limiting hitters to a .171 average and enters after giving up three runs over six innings Wednesday to earn a 7-6 victory over San Francisco. A real pitchers duel, however, the Orioles have won all three of Chen’s starts against the White Sox, with the southpaw going 1-0 with a 2.60 ERA. The Sharps like the home doggie here. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – BALTIMORE ORIOLES (+103)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO (World Cup Soccer)

1* ESP -1 (-140)

1* CHI/NET – Over 2.5

2* BRA -2.5 (+110)
2* BRA -1.5 (-210)

2.5* MEX (+175)
2.5* CRO (+180)
1* MEX/CRO – Over 2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN (MLB)

7-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 – Chicago White Sox at Baltimore (7 p.m., Monday, June 23)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

2* Blue Jays -122

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MAGIC MIKE PICKS

Pittsburg Pirates

Baltimore Orioles

Croatia (WC)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):
A good way to bounce back from a rough Friday as I went 3-0 Saturday and Sunday, including a 5 Star winner yesterday with the Dodgers winning 2-1. Kyle and I used the Dodgers in back to back 5 Star winners. Lets keep it going here on Monday.
2 UNIT = Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers - BREWERS TO WIN (-123)
Listed Pitchers: Gonzalez vs Garza
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.63 units)
The Brewers enter this series coming off a road trip where they went 6-1, and they've won 4 straight games to boost their record to 47-30 on the season and 20-15 at home. The Nats are 39-35 on the year and 16-18 on the road and are coming off a split over the weekend with the Braves at home (winning their last two games). Gio Gonzalez will take the mound for Washington and he is 3-4 on the year with a 4.85 ERA, .255 OBA and 1.37 WHIP. On the road he is just 1-3 with a 5.46 ERA, and over his last three games he has an ERA of 11.68. Matt Garza will counter for Milwaukee and he is 4-4 with a 4.02 ERA, .249 OBA and 1.30 WHIP. He has been stellar at home with a 2.89 ERA, .236 OBA and 1.15 WHIP, and has posted a 2-0 record and 2.00 ERA over his 4 June starts. The Nationals are 0-4 int heir alst 4 road games, 16-40 in their last 56 games as a road underdog, and 0-4 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts as a road underdog. The Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs lefty starters and 5-1 in Garza's last 6 home starts. I'm on the Brewers here tonight.

2 UNIT = Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs - REDS TO WIN (+106)
Listed Pitchers: Simon vs Samardzija
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.12 units)
The Reds won 2 of 3 over the weekend vs Toronto and have won 5 of their last 7 games overall. Chicago dropped their final two games vs Pittsburgh to drop to just 31-42 on the season. Alfredo Simon will get the ball for Cincinnati and he is 10-3 with a 3.05 ERA, .231 OBA and 1.11 WHIP. He is actually slightly better on the road with a 7-1 record, 2.66 ERA and .211 OBA away from home. He has faced the Cubs twice, winning both and holding the Cubs to just 1 unearned run over 6 innings of work at his start at Wrigley Field. The Cubs will counter with their ace Jeff Samardzija who is 2-6 with a 2.60 ERA, .242 OBA and 1.21 WHIP. He has been stellar at home with a 1.64 ERA, but his record is just 1-3 at home as he seems to always get little run support. Samardzija has been regressing a little bit lately going 1-2 with a 5.73 ERA over 4 June starts. He has faced the Reds twice, losing both games, but pitching pretty good in both. Note that the Reds are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall, 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road underdog, and 7-1 in Simon's last 8 road starts (4-0 in his last 4 starts overall). The Cubs are just 16-40 in their last 56 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 6-21 in Samrdzija's last 27 starts overall and 3-13 in his last 16 home starts. The Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 meetings with the Cubs when Samardzija is on the mound, and they are 21-6 in their last 27 meetings in Chicago. I'll take the Reds as underdogs with Simon on the mound.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

MONDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play New York Yankees +110 over Toronto (MLB TOP PLAY)

New York is 41-32 when playing in the month of June the last three seasons
New York is 96-82 vs. division opponents the last three seasons
New York is 79-54 when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs


10* Play Washington +110 over Milwaukee (MLB TOP PLAY)

Washington is 64-42 when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs
Washington is 39-32 when playing in the month of June the last three seasons
Washington is 33-26 when batting .225 or worse over the last ten games

=============================================

5* Play Miami +100 over Philadelphia (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Cincinnati +110 over Chicago Cubs (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

MONDAY

Arena Football

No Arena Football Plays Today

================================================== ==

World Cup Soccer


10* Play Netherlands over Chile (Top Soccer Play)
10* Play UNDER 3 Netherlands/Chile (Top Soccer Play)
10* Play Australia +1.5 over Spain (Top Soccer Play)
10* Play Cameroon +2.5 over Brazil (Top Soccer Play)
10* Play Mexico over Croatia (Top Soccer Play)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

MONDAY BASEBALL




Play New York Yankees +110 over Toronto----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
7:00 PM EST


Chase Whitley has won 5 consecutive games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and he has won 4 consecutive night games. Chase Whitley has won 5 consecutive road games and he is 3-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 2.75.





Play Washington +110 over Milwaukee----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
8:00 PM EST


Gio Gonzalez has won 15 of the last 18 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents and he has won 35 of the last 47 night games. Gio Gonzalez has won 8 consecutive games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and he has won 27 of the last 40 road games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play St. Louis -110 over Colorado (MLB TOP PLAY)

Jhoulys Chacin has lost 9 of the last 12 games when pitching on a Monday and he has lost 27 of the last 39 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher.Jhoulys Chacin has lost 14 of the last 22 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents and he is 1-5 in all starts this season with an ERA of 4.53.

================================================== ===



50* Play Washington +110 over Milwaukee (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play San Francisco -130 over San Diego (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SHAKER’S SHORTS

#903 Cincinnati Reds – Team Total OVER 3.5 -125: I am not sure how long this number is going to be around but it is lagging behind the current game number for now. High vig but Reds Bats are on track, weather better than average tonight for hitters and the Cubs pitcher could easily be having arm weariness right now with numbers down for him. This happens often later in the 1st half of the season prior to the All Star Break..

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon


Ben lee had the splits on Sunday in World Cup Soccer losing with a $25 play on USA +$420/Portugal and winning with a $50 play on the Draw +$300.

"Mr Chalk" won on Sunday in MLB in the National League with the Nationals -$135/Braves.

For Monday E&B have a $50 future's play at Wimbledon for the winner in the women's Division on Maria Sharapova.

For Monday in MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the Mariners -$152Red Sox.

Ben lee is 153-184-5 -$3454 thru Thirty Four Weeks.

"Mr Chalk" is 35-33 -$781 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PittViper / Matthew Bittle

Monday MLB
Two picks today, both from the same game.

2* ROT# 916 – 10:10pm – Seattle Mariners -150
2* ROT# 916 – 10:10pm – Boston/Seattle UNDER 6.5 (-110)

John Lackey and Felix Hernandez square off tonight as Boston visits the Mariners.

Seattle is fresh off a road sweep of the (were) hot-hitting Kansas City Royals, despite only scoring two runs in two of the three games (both 2-1 wins).
Boston avoided being swept four games to none, to the Oakland Athletics, despite a blown-save by their closer Koji Uehera thanks to a Big Papi homerun in the top of the 10th inning. Boston has won their past 6 games versus Seattle, all last year, but I believe that streak comes to an end tonight – and i’ll explain why.

John Lackey has carried 2013′s success into 2014, having posted an 8-4 record to go along with a 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 15 starts this season. In fact, he has had a quality start (6 or more innings pitched, allowing 3 runs or less) in 12 of his 15 starts. He’s been equally good on the road and at home, versus left-handed batters and right-handed batters and has allowed a total of five runs in his past three combined starts (1.90 ERA). The key to his success has been his control. He’s allowed 1 walk or less in 10 of his 15 starts. However, he has struggled a bit versus this Seattle roster. He made only one start versus a Cano-less Seattle roster last season, in which he had a .308 BAA – surrendering 3 runs in 7 innings of work. Speaking of Cano, he has a lifetime batting average of 17 for 59 (.309), with 8 doubles, against Lackey – posting a .810 OPS along the way. Other notable players who have found success versus lackey include Endy Chavez (8 for 13, .615 batting average and 1.264 OPS), Bloomquist (5 for 15, .333 BA), Ackley (4 for 9, .444), Brad Miller (1 for 3, .333) and Seager (2 for 5, .400). Really – the only players Lackey has found great success against are all injured: Smoak (1 for 10, .100), Saunders (1 for 6, .167) and Hart (0 for 3, .000). The nine players, who are likely to start tonight for Seattle, are a career 38 for 101 against Lackey – posting a .376 batting average, .411 OBP, .511 SLG and .925 OPS. Those are unreal numbers. While batter-vs-pitcher stats are not a good representative of the pitchers current form and are not a great tool to predict future outcomes, they are important because often times when a batter has “a pitchers number” they have confidence at the plate which is such an important characteristic and this can also effect the pitchers confidence/pitching (see Goldschmidt versus Lincecum).

Lackey will need to be locked in tonight as he’ll be countered by one of, if not the, leagues best pitcher. Hernandez is 8-2 on the season; has allowed 2 runs or less in 13 of his 16 starts, 1 walk or less in 11 of his 16 starts and 5 hits or less in 10 of his 16 starts. He has allowed more than 3 runs just once, has lasted 6+ innings in all of his starts, has lasted 7+ innings in 11 of his 16 starts, has 122 strikeouts in 113 innings (9.72 K/9IP) and just 19 walks (1.5 BB/9IP). How’s his recent form? Hernandez has allowed a total of just 2 runs in his past 3 combined starts – giving up just 11 hits and 3 walks in over 22 innings of work. I think it’s safe to say: he is good. Despite his recent success at limiting baserunners and runs, he has not received much run support and the Mariners have lost both of his two most recent starts. I think he once again finds the win column tonight. How has he fared against Boston in the past? He made two starts versus Boston last season (when they were hitting the ball much better) and limited them to only 3 runs in 14 innings of work (1.93 ERA). Boston’s projected line-up are a lifetime 42 for 172 against Hernandez: posting a .244 batting average, .330 OBP, .427 SLG and .756 OPS. Those are pretty average numbers, with only 3 players hitting above .225 versus Hernandez. Despite all of those incredible stats, favouring Hernandez, he has yet to have a complete game this season. When a better opportunity than now?

Boston has been one of the worst offensive MLB teams in the month of June ranked 28th for both team batting average (.227) and team OPS (.652) the past three weeks. Seattle has ranked 12th for batting average (.258) and 20th for OPS (.691) the past three weeks; they are tied for 6th with 13 stolen bases … 5 more than Boston this month. Seattle is ranked 29th in batting average and OPS against left-handed pitching, but against righties like Lackey Seattle is ranked 25th and 22nd while Boston is 22nd and 26th. There is no real edge at the hitting position. It’d be easy to argue that Boston has the better offense, they did after-all win the world series last year but they have been putrid this season and have only gotten worst the past few weeks. Still, these two offenses have been bottom tier the past three weeks and this season (with Seattle getting the edge, thanks to better OBP the past few weeks).

As for bullpens, Seattle has the 2nd best ERA in the league the past month (2.13) while Boston is ranked 3rd with an ERA of (2.51). Because I expect Seattle to be in the lead by the time the bullpens are needed, I looked at Boston’s bullpen ERA the past month without their closer Uehera included and that ERA rises to 2.95 (still very respectable). So we’ve got two elite pitchers, two elite bullpens and two bottom of the league offenses. The starting pitching edge goes to Seattle, the hitting edge goes to Seattle (only because of recent form and success versus Lackey in the past), relief pitching edge goes to Seattle (because of Boston’s ERA without Uehera) and home advantage goes to Seattle (Seattle is returning home from a 5 game road-trip while Boston starts game 5 of their road trip). I expect both pitchers to last 7 innings and I project that Hernandez gives up 1 run while Lackey gives up 3 runs. If Hernandez is able to make quick work of Boston’s middle of the order (2-3-4 batters) I see no reason why he doesn’t pitch his first complete game of the season against the offensive struggling Boston Red Sox. I also predict that Seattle scores a run off of the Redsox bullpen and go on to win the game 4-1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports

Complimentary MLB Pick for June 23rd, 2014

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
Time: Monday 06/23 8:40 PM Eastern
Pick: Colorado +104 (moneyline) at Bovada
Tools: Public Consensus | Bet this game

The Rockies have lost six in a row and are in desparate need of a win. I like their chances here against a St. Louis team that is 23-17 at home, but just 18-18 on the road and getting only 3.3 runs per game. The Rockies average 6.5 per game here at home. That's a full 3.2 runs per game difference. That is hard to ignore! Dating back to last season, the Cards are just 16-29 on the road following a close win by two runs or less. Meanwhile, over that same time period, the Rockies are 23-13 following a one-run loss. Colorado's Jhoulys Chacin has really heated up, posting a 2.84 ERA over his last three starts. With the huge offensive disparity in this game, and a capable pithcer on the mound for Colorado, take the Rockies tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB BALFE

MILWAUKEE BREWERS -135
(Lohse/Matzek)

Just like yesterday why not take these Brewers again? They are a superior club with a 8-2 pitcher on the mound this afternoon. The Brewers have been crushing this ball as of late and will love hitting in this park today. Take the Brewers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steven Nover

Washington

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Baltimore Under 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Behind The Bets

MLB

Toronto Blue Jays -113

St. Louis Cardinals -119

San Francisco Giants -128


Boxing Saturday

3 Unit Terence Crawford -190

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux

MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MrParlayKing

Cincinnati Reds ML -110

Over 7 -125 Pittsburgh Pirates/Tampa Bay Rays

Chicago White Sox ML -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

7* Chicago White Sox/Baltimore UNDER 7.5 (-113)

8* Philadelphia -101

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

Burns' Monday MLB Personal Favorite!

Tampa Bay Rays ML -137

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Fargo

Fargo's MLB TRIPLE DOG PLAY

9* (908) Colorado Rockies
9* (914) Baltimore Orioles
9* (920) Kansas City Royals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

The Metamucils got in the flow against the Marlins Sunday, but Tanaka and the Yanks were bludgeoned by the Birds, giving Hondo a painful split that boosted the deficit to 1,505 armbristers.

Monday night: Mr. Aitch will attempt to move closer to the black with the Reds — 10 units on Cincy to Simon-ize the Cubs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

St. Louis @ COLORADO

COLORADO +102 over St. Louis

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

Jholuly’s Chacin is 1-5 with a 4.63 ERA and that has he and the Rockies falsely billed as the underdog in this game. Chacin’s numbers are not going to appeal to many but he’s an interesting study and he’s high on our list of “buy-low” candidates. Last year, Chacin came back strong after missing most of 2012 to a pectoral injury. His control was the best of his career by a wide margin and just two of first 28 starts were disasters before he faded in September. That’s pretty remarkable when one considers where he pitches half his games. Chacin also regained his groundball tilt last year and has maintained it this year. We’re just now beginning to see the “old” Chacin come back to life. He has 23 K’s in his last 29 innings and it is supported by his 10% swing and miss rate over that span. Chacin’s groundball rate over his last five starts is 53%, up from his season rate of 45% and his line-drive/fly-ball rate over that same stretch is outstanding at 18%/29%. Chacin’s GB rate in his last start was 63%. Chacin is pitching much better than his surface stats suggest and he’s facing a Cardinals offense that scares nobody.

Lance Lynn is not having a bad season but he has had some bumps in the road along the way. Two of his last four starts have been disasters. Over his last five starts, he has a 23/15 K/BB in 31.1 IP. The reason why he is such a bad option today as the chalk is the schedule has him pitching at Coors Field. Throughout his career, Lynn has been much better at home (3.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) than on the road (4.34 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). The Rockies put up 6.4 runs per game at home where they own a .329 BA and .911 OPS. Lynn’s overall 3.15 ERA does not come with skills support. Other than a decent strikeout total of 82 in 91 innings, none of his other skills support the ERA. He’s walking more batters than ever, his WHIP of 1.31 is worse than the league average, his groundball/fly-ball split of 45%/35% is about league average and his xERA over his last seven starts is 4.44. Lynn has been greatly aided by an extremely lucky 89% strand rate over his last five starts. Lynn’s numbers look pretty on paper (1.89 ERA over his last three) but don’t buy it, as he is not even an average pitcher on the road and this venue is very unforgiving to any pitcher with a high WHIP. Wrong side favored.


Washington @ MILWAUKEE

Washington +110 over MILWAUKEE

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)

After a grueling 7-game road trip through Arizona and Colorado, the Brewers return home for this opener. A seven-game trip is nothing unique but most of Milwaukee’s games on said trip went well over three hours and it’s also worth noting that the Crew went from the 100+ degrees weather in Arizona to the high altitude in Denver. Milwaukee’s starters lasted a combined 14.1 innings in the three games in Colorado, where the two teams combined for 47 runs in the three-game set. We’re suggesting this isn’t a good spot for the Brewers, who may be running on fumes after that trip and who will be playing their 14th straight game here without a day off. Matt Garza is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over his last four starts but don't confuse his good results with good skills. In those four starts, he has a 4.30 xERA, a low 4.7 K’s/9 and eight walks in 26 frames. In 15 starts for a team with one of the best records in the majors, Garza has just four wins. He’s definitely serviceable but he’s also not to be trusted in this spot against a very good Nationals team.

In his first start back after missing a month, Gio Gonzalez wasn’t sharp against the Astros, allowing four earned runs in five innings. We’ll give him a pass, as many pitchers need a game to get back into the groove. No question that he’s ready otherwise the Nationals would’ve delayed his return. Thing is, Gonzalez struck out six in five innings and now has 59 K’s in 56 innings. Gonzalez has been consistent for four years running. He went more than 7 IP only three times in 2012. In 2013, he reached that mark only twice. His skills describe a borderline star, lacking the control and endurance to take the next step. He has been the same solid pitcher for three straight years and over that time he has a 48-28 record. When Gonzalez pitches, the Nationals win and in this favorable spot and taking back a small tag, we’ll gladly get on board.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Antony Dinero

Cincinnati Reds ML +106

San Francisco Giants ML -155

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Pritchard

Kansas City vs. L.A. Dodgers (Jun 23 8:10 PM EST)

Kansas City Royals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2Halves2Win (Comp pick):

Up +.62 YTD:


0.5* GAME - BOS @ SEA: Mariners

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Betting Cheat Sheet

Yankees Blanked as Big Faves

The New York Yankees (-208) ended their weekend series against Baltimore with a thud, dropping an 8-0 decision Sunday afternoon. It's the first time the Yankees have been shut out as a favorite of -200 or greater since August 15, 2010, when they fell 1-0 to Kansas City despite being installed at -210.

Cardinals Undercut High Totals

The St. Louis Cardinals face their largest total of the season in their series opener with the host Colorado Rockies. St. Louis has one of the lowest average totals in baseball and is 1-9-2 O/U so far this year in games with totals of eight or higher.

Kershaw's Encore

Clayton Kershaw will try to follow up on his first career no-hitter Tuesday as he leads the Los Angeles Dodgers into Kansas City for an interleague date with the Royals. Kershaw has allowed just four runs over his last four starts, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 O/U over that stretch.

Pitching Notes

Seattle ace Felix Hernandez has been red-hot of late, allowing two runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts. The Mariners are 5-2 SU and 2-4-1 O/U over that stretch but have lost back-to-back Hernandez starts entering Monday's game against visiting Boston (+136, 6.5).

Oakland left-hander Scott Kazmir looks to continue his recent Under trend as he faces the host New York Mets on Tuesday. Kazmir is 1-5 O/U over his last six starts, with the Athletics a sizzling 5-1 SU in that stretch thanks to Kazmir allowing just eight combined runs in those games.

Hitting Notes

Chicago Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro has 11 home runs in just 293 at-bats so far this season, three shy of his career high set in 646 at-bats in 2012. The Cubs are 5-4 SU and 7-2 O/U in games in which Castro goes deep entering Monday's game against visiting Cincinnati (+104).

Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera has been one of the catalysts for the team's four-game winning streak, batting .400 with a home run and five RBIs over that span. Cabrera and the Tigers face Texas on Tuesday; the reigning AL MVP is a .379 hitter with 63 RBIs in 63 career games versus the Rangers.

Totals Streak

Seattle Mariners (3-14-1 O/U): Seattle's pitching staff has been as good as any in the majors over the past eight games, allowing exactly one run in five of the Mariners' last eight games en route to a 6-2 record over that stretch. Seattle is 31-41-4 O//U for the season.

Prop of the Day

The Mariners are a strong play at -2.5 runs (+275). In addition to Hernandez being at his stingy best, the Red Sox haven been dreadful away from Boston of late, scoring just seven runs over a six-game road stretch before erupting for seven in a narrow win over Oakland on Sunday afternoon.

Injury Notes

Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun has an ankle injury and is questionable for Monday's game against Washington (+109, 8). The Brewers are 9-8 SU, 12-5 O/U and +159 units in 17 games without Braun in 2014.

Toronto infielder Brett Lawrie is out indefinitely after suffering a fractured finger in Sunday's loss to Cincinnati. The Blue Jays are 3-4 SU, 5-2 O/U and -134 units in seven games with Lawrie on the shelf so far this season.

Weather Watch

Wind at Camden Yards will blow out to left field at 8 mph for Monday's game between host Baltimore (+108, 7.5) and the Chicago White Sox. Teams averaged a combined 10.89 runs and 3.56 home runs over nine games in similar conditions last season - well above stadium averages.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS

Free Play: Seattle -140 vs Boston

Monday 6/23 Service Plays

So close to another clean sweep!! Milwaukee gets the much needed run in the top of the 9th to give us the 2 run lead, but they just couldn't hold it and only won by 1 to make us lose on the RL!! 2-1 for the day is still a winning day and that's all we are looking for each and every day!! Let's get winning day # 3 in a row today to start this run we were all waiting for!!!


MLB

Cinncinati +105


LA Dodgers -125


San Francisco -155


St. Louis RL -1.5 +135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Primetime Insiders

3* Plays

Miami +104

LAD -118

2* Play

CHW -110

1* Play

CHC -115

Cincinnati and Chicago Under 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Topshelfpicks - Carson K - 2* Nationals

The Brewers are 8-7 with Garza pitching this year. In those 8 wins he got some pretty good run support(50runs), 6.25 runs a game. In the 7 loses(15runs) 2.14 runs a game. I know Milw has put up some runs the last couple of games. I believe that comes to an end today.

The Brewers are only hitting .239 vs. LHP and they will be facing Gio Gonzalez. After getting that first start from coming back, out of the way, I see him pitching a very solid game today.

I also see 73% of the bets coming in on the Brewers, which tells me that I'm on the right side with the Nat's.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Runner

#NFAC "Premium Play" Move

920 KC ROYALS +100 ML

920 KC ROYALS +1.5 RL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports

MLB

Sides

#912: Blue Jays: -105 1.5*
Listed Pitchers: Whitley / Stroman

#914: Orioles: +115 .5*
Listed Pitchers: Sale / Chen


Totals

#915/916: Over Mariners: 6.5 (-105) 3*
Listed Pitchers: Lackey / Hernandez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BigBaseballBets

5* Under 10.5 St. Louis Cardinals/Colorado Rockies

Lynn vs. Chacin Listed

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Antony Dinero

New York Yankees ML +115


Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay

Play: Over 7 -120

Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 -155

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Dunavant

Baltimore Orioles +100

Chicago Cubs -110

Kansas City Royals +115

Washington Nationals +118

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Fezzik | MLB Money Line
Free pick
910 SFG (-156) BetOnline (http://www.cappersmall.com/forums/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fpartners.commission.bz%2Fpr ocessing%2Fclickthrgh.asp%3Fbtag%3Da_36640b_127) vs 909 SDP

Fezzik's Focus Free Play of day, bet 1/2 on ML, 1/2 on R/Line

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rooster

White Sox 1st 5 -115
Cubs over 8.5 even

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Delaney Monday winner...

My 150 Dime MLB Winner for tonight is on the Seattle Mariners in their American League clash with the Boston Red Sox. As I release this game at Midnight eastern, I see the line being Seattle -155. Be sure you're listing Felix Hernandez ONLY in this game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gabriel DuPont MLB winner...

My 100 Dime MLB winner for tonight is the UNDER in the Interleague showdown between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Kansas City Royals. As I release this play at 9 p.m. pacific, I see the line on this game is 7.5, -10.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Topshelfpicks.

Carson K (Adds) - 2* Cubs

I will be looking for Jeff Samardzija to seek some revenge in this game. The Cubs are 1-6 vs. the Reds in Jeff's last 7 starts against Cincy. It seems like a lot of ppl have given up on Jeff right now and I think he knows that. You will see him come out today fired up & focused.

This is Alfred Simon's first year has a starter since 2011. I look for him to take a step back tonight and in his next couple of starts. Last year at this time he threw 652 pitches. His pitch count right now stands at 1302. His arm will start to feel it soon & I believe soon is tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bookie Zapper

Over 8.5 Cincinnati Reds/Chicago Cubs

Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

James Jones

2* Orioles
1* Over 8.5 Reds/Cubs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OC Dooley

San Diego Padres +145

It was a stunning Sunday for San Diego who in a move rarely seen at this time of the year in baseball fired their General Manager Josh Byrnes. The team also had to make a late pitching shuffle this evening as staff ace Andrew Cashner (mild shoulder problems) was scratched as a precaution. Making his major league debut for the Padres this evening is the unknown Odrisamer Despaigne who is a 27-year old Cuban defector who spent EIGHT years pitching for his native country. In an ironic twist the last Padres executive to see Despaigne pitch at the Triple-A level was Byrnes which essentially means he has his “stamp” on the ballclub for one more night. For those who have access to this late night contest Despaigne has a “big arm” using different angles for success along with the ability to change speeds on his pitchers. With major league hitters yet to experience his repertoire tonight is one of the rare occurrences where the awful Padres actually have an advantage versus the competition

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

MLB Free Play

Los Angeles Dodgers -115 over Kansas City Royals

Considering the Dodgers have won 26 of the last 37 games started by Zack Greinke, we'll gladly lay the shirt price on the road, especially against a Royals team that has hit the skids following a streak that put them in first place in the AL Central for a couple days. But the team has since lost four in a row and has scored two runs or less in its last five games. The Dodgers have one of the best road records in baseball and over the last three seasons they are +13.8 units when playing on the highway. The price is right. Lay the favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

James Jones

2* Baltimore Orioles

1* Over 8.5 Cincinnati Reds/Chicago Cubs


"Syndicate"

St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants