5-5-14

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Dave Essler MLB Thoughts

Washington-Dodgers: Two teams off tough losses and probably not super-confident, and Washington come home from Philly after a wasted effort by Gio. Because the Dodgers have had their way with Grienke, I lean to the Dodgers, and if that total comes down and the weather cooperates, I do think both teams get some.

Pirates-Giants: Two teams going in opposite directions right now, and Jeff Locke may have had his moment in the sun early last season. His AAA stats this year suck, the Pirates pen is bad and without Grilli, and Cain has handled the Pirates well. That means the Giants should win but if only they were all that easy. Need Giants lineup after big Atlanta series. Now it looks like a pitching change. Either Cain's thumb isn't cool or the Pirates decided to go with Wandy if his knee in fine, so refresh on this one. I only edited it so some a-hole wouldn't "remind" me tomorrow

Cardinals-Braves: St. Louis probably gets to Atlanta sometime well after midnight after playing the Sunday night game, and the Braves just can't hit the long ball right now. Obviously need to wait for STL lineup, but both Harang AND Miller have regressed. I still have to lean Braves at that price at home, and maybe the over.

Mets-Fish: There are lots of angles here. Mets flying from no-air and winning to South Florida and a team that's winning. Niese has been a freak, BUT, the Marlins have hammered him. It's not as warm in Ft. Lauderdale as it usually is, so there's a slight chance the roof might be open, because I do lean to the over a little. Because everyone will be on the Fish, and they aren't always that easy, I may take the Mets RL.

Arizona-Brewers: Nice win for us Sunday fading the D-Backs and their bullpen, and of course w/Garza you'd think that the Brewers would be an auto play, which is why I might look at the D-Backs RL. They've hit Garza some, and coming home after a tough loss to the Reds isn't a happy place for them to be. Over would be far to easy as well, I think.

Cleveland-Twins: The Indians have fallen on hard times and the Twins may not be the answer to their problems. McAllsiter just isn't a -160 pitcher and Gibson's stock has obviously dropped, but he does have some talent. No chance of the Indians here. Twins or Twins RL, probably.

Houston-Detroit: If the total is only 7.5 here, do the really expect this to be a 6-1 or so win by the Tigers? Interesting. Let's see who rests for the Tigers and who doesn't. ONE game at +245 or probably + for the RL I wouldn't consider taking the Tigers RL unless that total goes up. Need to check the weather there.

Oakland-Seattle: This one may not be as easy as it looks. Maybe it is, but the wind is supposed to be blowing out hard, so if you like over, it won't close at 7 IMO. Young does have SOME potential and the Mariners started hitting, so maybe after the A's fly cross country I could consider the M's RL.

Yankees-Angels: A little surprised Weaver is only -175 or so, really. Yankees play like sh*t and fly cross country to a team that's hitting with their best pitcher on the mound. Something just doesn't look right. This is almost one that I'd just play the ML on because Phelps isn't going to pitch deep. Maybe the over, too. Let's see lineups.

Toronto-Phillies: JA Happ is going against one of his old teams here, which is always a good spot. And of course Kendrick has been terrible. Since everyone now assumes the Phillies can't hit, they may well do that. Toronto of course has not DH so that could mean Jays bullpen sooner rather than later. Phillies isn't a ton better, so if it (the total) went to 8.5 I might consider the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Greinke is 5-0, 2.31 in six starts this season. Zimmerman is 2-1, 3.08 in his last four starts.
-- Petit threw six shutout innings in his first '14 start.
-- Miller is 3-0, 1.57 in his last four starts. Harang is 1-1, 1.50 in three home starts.
-- Eovaldi is 1-0, 2.37 in his last three starts. Niese is 2-1, 1.37 in his last three starts.

-- Scherzer is 3-0, 1.42 in his last three starts. Cosart is 0-0, 2.84 in his last two starts.
-- Oakland is 6-0 when Kazmir starts (4-0, 2.33).
-- Weaver is 2-0, 2.08 in his last three starts.

-- Lyles is 1-0, 1.80 in his last three starts. Perez is 2-0, 2.35 in two road tilts.
-- Ventura is 1-0, 0.00 in his last two starts (13 IP).

Cold pitchers
-- This is Locke's first '14 start; he was 1-3, 8.00 in his last four '13 starts.
-- Garza is 1-2, 6.75 in five starts this season. Bolsinger is 1-1, 6.89 in three starts this season.

-- Gibson is 0-2, 11.17 in his last two starts. McAllister is 0-2, 8.68 in his last couple starts.
-- Young has a 5.17 RA in his last three starts.
-- Phelps is making first '14 start; he was 6-5, 4.98 in 22 games LY (12 starts); he allowed seven runs in 11.2 IP in nine relief appearances this year.

-- Kendrick is 0-2, 5.32 in his last four starts. Happ is making first '14 start; he was 1-1, 2.33 in his last three starts LY.
-- Quintana is Samardzija is 0-2, 3.60 in his last three starts.
-- Stults is 1-3, 5.97 in six starts this season.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Greinke 0-6; Zimmerman 1-6
-- Petit 0-1; Locke 0-0
-- Miller 0-6; Harang 0-6
-- Niese 2-5; Eovaldi 1-6
-- Bolsinger 1-3; Garza 2-6

-- Gibson 2-5; McAllister 2-6
-- Cosart 4-6; Scherzer 2-6
-- Young 1-4; Kazmir 1-6
-- Phelps 0-0; Weaver 1-6

-- Happ 0-0; Kendrick 1-5
-- Quintana 1-6; Samardzija 2-6
-- Perez 1-4; Lyles 2-6
-- Ventura 2-5; Stults 2-6

Totals
-- Five of last six Dodger games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in Giants' last nine road games. Last four Pittsburgh games went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Atlanta road games stayed under.
-- Ten of last twelve Miami home games went over.
-- Under is 14-1 this season in games at Miller Park.

-- Three of last four Cleveland home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last ten Detroit games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Oakland games stayed under.
-- Over is 10-3-1 in Angels' home games.

-- Six of last seven Toronto road games went over.
-- Over is 9-4 in last thirteen games at Wrigley Field.
-- Over is 8-3 in last eleven Colorado games.
-- Six of Royals' last seven games went over total.

Hot teams
-- Dodgers won five of their last seven road games.
-- Giants won nine of their last ten games.
-- Marlins won eight of their last nine home games.
-- Arizona won four of its last five road games.

-- Minnesota won three of its last four road games.
-- Detroit won seven of its last eight games.
-- Mariners won seven of their last nine games.
-- Angels won five of their last seven home games.

-- Phillies won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Cubs won three of their last four games.
-- Rockies won eight of last 11 games, are 5-0 in home series openers.

Cold teams
-- Nationals are 5-6 in their last eleven home games.
-- Braves lost their last six games. St Louis lost six of last eight on road.
-- Pirates lost 13 of their last 18 games.
-- Mets lost three of their last four games.
-- Shorthanded Brewers lost four of their last five games.

-- Indians lost seven of last nine games, but won six of last eight at home.
-- Astros lost four of their last five games.
-- Oakland lost its last three home games.
-- Bronx lost four of its last five games.

-- Blue Jays lost five of their last seven road games.
-- White Sox lost four of their last five games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Kansas City lost its last four games. Padres lost four of last five games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Thunder -5.5
Cubs -125
Royals -125

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Today's MLB Picks

LA Dodgers at Washington

The Dodgers look to bounce back from yesterday's 5-4 loss in Miami and come into tonight's contest with a 7-0 record in Zack Greinke's last 7 starts after giving up 5 or more runs in the previous game. LA is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, MAY 5 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: LA Dodgers at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.627; Washington (Zimmermann) 14.287 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-120); Over

Game 953-954: San Francisco at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Petit) 15.347; Pittsburgh (Locke) 14.428 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-110); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-110); Under

Game 955-956: St. Louis at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Miller) 15.333; Atlanta (Harang) 14.815 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); Under

Game 957-958: NY Mets at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 16.168; Miami (Eovaldi) 17.666 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Miami (-145); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-145); Under

Game 959-960: Arizona at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Bolsinger) 13.708; Milwaukee (Garza) 15.387 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-165); 8 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-165); Under

Game 961-962: Minnesota at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 14.844; Cleveland (McAllister) 14.304 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-160); 8 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+140); Over

Game 963-964: Houston at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Cosart) 15.910; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.361 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Detroit (-300); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+250); Under

Game 965-966: Seattle at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Young) 14.897; Oakland (Kazmir) 16.438 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Oakland (-200); 7 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-200); Over

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Phelps) 14.813; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.387 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-170); Under

Game 969-970: Toronto at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Happ) 16.448; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.550 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 9 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Over

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 15.195; Cubs (Samardzija) 14.235 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+105); N/A

Game 973-974: Texas at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Perez) 15.629; Colorado (Lyles) 16.720 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 12 Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-130); Over

Game 975-976: Kansas City at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Ventura) 13.895; San Diego (Stults) 14.552 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-125); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+105); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Washington at Indiana

The Wizards open up their series in Indiana tonight and come into the contest with a 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 road games. Washington is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Pacers favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

MONDAY, MAY 5 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: Washington at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 119.109; Indiana 121.206 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 2; 177 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 183 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4); Under

Game 703-704: LA Clippers at Oklahoma City (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 122.257; Oklahoma City 129.052 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7; 216 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5 1/2; 211 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-5 1/2); Over

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Monday

Tigers -1.5 -122

Mets/Marlins under 7.5

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play MON: Brewers -170

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JEFFREY JAMES (Play of the Day)

#964 Detroit Tigers with Scherzer moneyline -260 (7:05 edt)

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Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee won in the NHL Playoffs on Sunday with the Penguins -$160/Rangers.

"Mr Chalk" won in MLB on Sunday with the Marlins -$185/Dodgers.

For Monday in the NBA Playoffs E&B like the Wizards+4.5/Pacers.

"Mr Chalk" has Np in MLB.

Ben lee is 9-5 +$140 for Week Twenty Seven 114-127-5 -$2162

"Mr Chalk" is 17-12 -$78 for the 2014 MLB season

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Monday, May 5

Washington hasn't played since dispatching Bulls in five games Tuesday; Pacers won Game 7 at home Saturday. Home team won last five Wizard-Pacer games; Wiz lost its last ten visits to Indy (3-6 vs spread in the last nine). Indiana won six of last nine games overall; under is 27-18 in their home games this season. Six of last seven Wizard games went over total- all three series games this season stayed under.

Clippers/Thunder both won Game 7's Saturday; LA has to travel east to Oklahoma, while OC stays home. Teams split four meetings this season, going 1-1 in each building. Over is 8-3 in last 11 series games. Clippers are 25-18 vs spread on road, failing to cover last four, but they covered four of last five games as a dog, Thunder survived Memphis series that had four straight OT games; five of their last six games went over- they got huge break when Zach Randolph was suspended for Game 7.

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Game of the Day: Clippers at Thunder

Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5, 211.5)

The Los Angeles Clippers prevailed through an emotional series and don’t get any time to recuperate as they open the Western Conference semifinals against the host Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday. Los Angeles dealt with anger over racist comments spewed by now-banished owner Donald Sterling while fighting off the Golden State Warriors in a hard-fought series that ended Saturday. The Thunder also went seven games in the opening round, claiming the final two to oust the Memphis Grizzlies.

Second-seeded Oklahoma City was tested mightily by Memphis through five games before the Thunder easily won the final two contests as forward Kevin Durant rediscovered his shooting stroke and Russell Westbrook excelled as an all-around force. “We always try to figure out ways to get better,” Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks told reporters after Saturday’s clinching win. “We’re not mistake-free, but our effort is right on.” The Clippers were somehow able to keep much of their focus on basketball despite the chaos caused by the Sterling situation. “It’s been a crazy ride for us,” center DeAndre Jordan told reporters. “I commend our guys for sticking with it. It’s been a roller coaster, but we came out and had a job to do and we did it.”

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Thunder opened as 4.5-point home faves, but have been bet to -5. The total opened 211 and has been bet up to 211.5.

INJURY REPORT: Clippers - Hedo Turkoglu (Day-to-day, back).

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Jordan was a difference-maker in the middle against Golden State by averaging 12.1 points, 15.1 rebounds and four blocks and his 106 rebounds surpassed Bob McAdoo’s franchise mark (94 for the Buffalo Braves in 1975) for a playoff series. Power forward Blake Griffin was strong on the scoring front (23.3) but grabbed just 6.3 boards and will be expected to increase that effort while being matched against Oklahoma City’s Serge Ibaka. Point guard Chris Paul (17.4 points, nine assists in the postseason) is bothered by a hamstring injury so it is likely that valuable reserve Darren Collison will find himself defending Westbrook at times to keep Paul from being taxed. Shooting guard Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick provide the outside artillery and small forward Matt Barnes has his moments.

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Westbrook put together a contest for the ages with 27 points, 16 assists and 10 rebounds on Saturday to join Boston’s Rajon Rondo as the only players with a triple-double in two different Game 7s. He struggled with his shot for much of the series despite averaging 25.6 points while Durant also found himself under scrutiny while averaging 29.9 points with five 30-point outings. Durant is expected to be named MVP early this week but that didn’t stop the Oklahoma City newspaper from dubbing him “Mr. Unreliable” after a couple subpar shooting performances. Ibaka (13 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.6 blocked shots) is a consistent performer but Oklahoma City will need some better efforts from a supporting cast that includes guard Reggie Jackson and forward Caron Butler.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Clippers are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last five Conference Semifinals games.
* Over is 8-2 in Clippers last 10 overall.

CONSENSUS: 51 percent of wagers are coming in on the Thunder.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA Playoffs Round Two Betting Edges

With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s on to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.

Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action, along with a few tempting team trends. All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.

Thou Shall Not Lay Points Into A No. 1 Seed

One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: do not lay points against No.1 seeds.

That’s because inferior teams are just 18-27-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996.

Worse, if the inferior teams are laying 4.5 or fewer points they are just 9-21 ATS, including 3-19 ATS when they own a win percentage of .575 or more.

Portland – you’ve been warned.


Tripped Out Favorites

Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not fare well when laying points in Round Two.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams laying points off three consecutive losses that are 3-14 ATS in these games. Last year saw Oklahoma City laying 4.5 points to Memphis in this non-desirous role. The Grizzlies won the game, 88-84.

Worse, if the tripped-out chalk dropped their last game straight up as a favorite these teams generally fall off the map - and out of the playoffs - going 3-7 SU and 0-10 ATS.


Role Reversals

You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs certainly are.

Round Two dogs (or picks) off a straight-up loss as a favorite are a 58.6% ATS proposition, going 34-24 ATS.

Best of all, send them home in this role and they respond with aplomb, going 5-1 SU and ATS.


Running On Empty

Home favorites that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up with a frenzy the next game in this round.

That’s evident by a sparkling 22-9-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.

The Pacers were put to the test last season and they ignited as 5.5-point favorites in a 98-79 annihilation of Atlanta.

FYI: Put these same favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 16-3 ATS, including 13-1 when laying four or more points.


Perfect 2nd Round Playoff Teams Trends

Brooklyn: Nets 5-0 ATS away vs. opponent off win of 7 or more points

Indiana: Pacers 0-4 ATS vs. opponent off SS SU underdog wins

Los Angeles: Clippers 0-5 SUATS off a win

Miami: Heat 7-0 ATS off a DD loss

Oklahoma City: Thunder 0-6 SUATS away off win of 9 more points

Portland: Trailblazers 4-0 SUATS off a loss of 6 or more points

San Antonio: Spurs 0-4 SUATS as a favorite off a SU underdog win

Washington: Wizards 0-4 ATS as dogs of less than 12 points

There you have it. Rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs. Use your head and play accordingly.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Monday, May 5

Rangers are playing fifth game in seven nights; they're been outshot 63-36 in last 5+ periods, since they led 2-0 after first period of Game 1. NY is 3-3 vs Penguins this year, after Pitt won eight of previous nine games in series. Over is 4-1-1 in series games this season. Penguins won five of last seven visits here. Rangers haven't scored on power play since Game 2 of Philly series, 0 for last 29. Pittsburgh is 28-16 on road this year; their last three road games all went over the total-- this is their first back/back since April 13.

Anaheim won four of last five games with LA, but lost 3-2 in OT in Game 1, with LA tying game with 0:07 left in regulation; under is 4-1-2 in last seven series games, but 0-3-1 in Ducks' last four games overall. Anaheim is 33-12 at home this season. Kings won last five games; over is 5-1-2 in their last eight games, with Kings allowing only seven goals in last five games. LA lost three of last five visits here; four of last eight series games went to OT. While games are on road, Kings obviously aren't flying, travel is easier, home ice edge a little less.

League-wide, over is 32-12-11 in the playoffs, 3-1-3 in this round.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

What to take and leave from the first month of MLB betting

The first month – often the most challenging month for betting - of the MLB season is in the books. But what happened in April doesn’t necessarily carry over to May or to the rest of the baseball schedule.

We asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest MLB handicappers to play a game of “Take It or Leave It”, telling you which early-season trends and outcomes you should take into May and which ones you should leave behind.

Steve Merril

Take it: “Pitchers will continue to dominate the hitters. Scoring has decreased significantly the past few seasons, especially since managers are quick to pull starting pitchers early and use spot middle relievers.”

Leave it: “Yankees' C.C. Sabathia has a history of starting slowly and did so this year, allowing six runs in his debut on April. He has settled down since and should pitch better in May than his overall 5.11 ERA would seem to indicate.”


Will Rogers

Take it: “Chicago White Sox 27-year-old rookie Jose Abreu leads the majors in home runs and RBIs, and watching him play I see no reason why he won't continue to be successful this season.”

Leave it: “The Brewers have the best record in baseball so far, and this is a trend I don't see continuing. They have been getting great pitching from their starters, but Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada are overachieving.”


Bryan Power

Take it: “Billy Beane continues to be smarter than the rest of his contemporaries and the Oakland GM has put together a team capable of continuing to stay atop the American League all season. Their run differential is the best in baseball, their starting rotation is good and their patience at the plate has once again led to them drawing more walks than any other team.”

Leave it: “The Atlanta Braves starting rotation was close to posting a sub 2.00 ERA in April. The list of teams in MLB history that have posted a sub 2.00 ERA in a calendar month is very small. While Atlanta's rotation is going to get healthier, the likelihood that they continue to post these kinds of incredible numbers is small.”


Sean Murphy

Take it: “I expect the Milwaukee Brewers to remain a profitable bet moving forward. We've seen it time and time again in the NL Central, with teams like the Reds and Pirates stepping to the forefront in recent years. And now it looks like it's the Brewers turn. With the Cardinals proving inconsistent and the Reds and Pirates struggling, Milwaukee should continue to thrive.”

Leave it: “I don't see the AL East staying down for long. The Yankees are currently the front runners but let's face it, all five teams have had their issues in the early going. I do expect one or two teams to separate themselves from the pack moving forward, and I think we can count on the defending world champion Red Sox to pick up their game as the season progresses.”