3-29-14

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA West Regional betting news and notes: Wisconsin wipes out fastbreak
By COLIN KELLY

The West Regional presented few surprises as the two top teams from that side of the bracket battle for a ticket to Texas Saturday. Check out our betting news and notes for the West Regional final.

No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 1 Arizona Wildcats (-3, 130)

If Arizona hopes to live up to its seed and advance out of Anaheim, Calif., to the Final Four, it had better hope its half-court game is in good order. Wisconsin (29-7 SU, 20-16 ATS) didn’t allow a single fastbreak point in its 69-52 rout Baylor. In fact, Wisconsin has gone a game-and-a-half without giving up a fastbreak point, shutting down Oregon in the final 20 minutes of a Round of 32 victory.

Jeff Potrykus of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel notes that Wisconsin has been a dominating force in the paint during the NCAA tournament, with much of the credit going to gangly 7-foot-center Frank Kaminsky. The Badgers have outscored their three NCAA foes in the lane by a combined 92-54, helping them win and cover in all three games. In Thursday’s bouncing of Baylor, Kaminsky had 19 points on 8-of-11 shooting and was key in hassling the Bears near the basket, with six blocked shots.

Arizona coach Sean Miller continues to prove he’s worth backing anytime he’s leading the better-seeded team – at least straight up, if not against the spread. In 10 years as a head coach (Xavier, Arizona), Miller has never lost SU to a worse-seeded team in the NCAA tournament. He’s 3-0 this year (1-2 ATS), his seventh trip to the Big Dance, after Thursday’s 70-64 victory over No. 4 seed San Diego State as a 7.5-point favorite.

Arizona (33-4 SU, 21-15 ATS) has made a living off stingy defense all season and did likewise in rallying for the win over San Diego State. The Wildcats held the Aztecs to just 38.9 percent shooting – right around Arizona’s season average of 38.0 percent, fourth-best in the nation. The Wildcats, meanwhile, shot 47.9 percent, bolstered by a torrid 61.9-percent effort in the second half.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA South Regional betting news and notes: 3-point line a no-fly zone vs. Dayton

Just two teams remain in the South Region, and only one will advance to the Final Four. Here's a quick look at Saturday's matchup between the Florida Gators and the Dayton Flyers:

No. 11 Dayton Flyers vs. No. 1 Florida Gators (-10.5, 132.5)

Much has been made about the Gators' stifling defense, but the Flyers have been solid in their own right, particularly when defending the 3-point line. Ohio State, Syracuse and Stanford combined to shoot just 8 for 43 from beyond the arc versus Dayton, which makes a point to close out quickly on opposing long-range shooters. That commitment to perimeter defense should concern Florida, which has shot just 16 for 53 from outside so far in the tournament.

The key to victory for the Gators, besides remaining diligent on defense, could be how they deal with Dayton's depth. The reserves for Albany, Pittsburgh and UCLA combined to shoot just 12 for 33 against Florida, but those three opponents didn't rely on their bench nearly as much as the Flyers do. Dayton's reserves are averaging 21.7 points per game and have been responsible for 33 percent of the Flyers' total points scored in the tournament.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA West Regional final betting preview: Wisconsin vs. Arizona

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Arizona Wildcats (-3, 130)

Either Arizona or Wisconsin is going to end a lengthy Final Four drought when the two programs square off in Saturday’s West regional final at Anaheim, Calif. The top-seeded Wildcats haven’t reached the national semifinals since 2001 when famed coach Lute Olson was still at the top of the profession. Second-seeded Wisconsin’s last appearance was one year earlier when Dick Bennett surprisingly guided the eighth-seeded Badgers into the Final Four.

Wildcats coach Sean Miller has received attention this month as perhaps the best active coach to not reach the Final Four but Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan also should be part of that discussion. The Badgers have only reached this stage once previously in his 13-season tenure – 2005 before losing to North Carolina – and his players have become well aware he hasn’t reached the Final Four. “Yeah, that would be a very special thing to do,” said guard Ben Brust after Thursday’s convincing victory over Baylor, “but we also know that he’s not going to let us look too far ahead.”

TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: The Wildcats opened as 3-point favorites and the total opened 130.

INJURY REPORT: Arizona, F Brandon Ashley (out for season)

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Wisconsin has the better offense, while Arizona has the better defense. Arizona is a bit more battle tested after a tough game against San Diego State, while Wisconsin was never tested by Baylor. These are two excellent teams and the winner of this game might end up being the national champion." Covers Experts' Steve Merril.

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "We opened Arizona -3 and we’ve seen mostly Wisconsin money at that number. After seeing what Wisconsin did to Baylor, we figured the public was going to back the Badgers in this game. So with the early action immediately backing Wisconsin, we went to +3 -115 on them late last night. Early this morning with more money backing Wisconsin, we moved off 3 and went to Arizona -2.5 flat, and that’s the line we’re currently dealing. Bottom line, this Wisconsin team by virtue of last night's dominating performance, is the hot, public team." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag

WHY BET WISCONSIN (29-7 SU, 20-16 ATS, 19-16 O/U): The Badgers are much prolific offensively than they typically are and have good balance, led by center Frank Kaminsky (13.7 average), guard Ben Brust (13 per game) and forward Sam Dekker (12.5). But the trademark defensive tenacity Ryan preaches has certainly been on display in the tournament as the Badgers are allowing just 54.7 points per game and totally shut down a red-hot Baylor squad (31.6 percent from the field) in Thursday’s 69-52 victory. Wisconsin’s win total is third-best in school history – two shy of the school mark set by the 2007-08 squad.

WHY BET ARIZONA (33-4 SU, 21-15 ATS, 13-20 O/U): Pac-12 Player of the Year Nick Johnson was scoreless on 0-of-10 shooting over the first 37 minutes of Thursday’s victory against San Diego State before scoring 15 points in the final 2:46 to help the Wildcats secure a 70-64 victory. “I’ve had a few games like this this year,” a relieved Johnson said afterward. “It’s unfortunately been our losses, so I just try to stay with it.” The Wildcats will need a more consistent effort from Johnson (16.3) against the Badgers and will also continue to rely on the inside duo of Aaron Gordon (12.5 points) and rising Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (9.1).

TRENDS:

* Badgers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.
* Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 8-3 in Badgers last 11 non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent of wagers are on Wisconsin.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA South Regional final betting preview: Dayton vs. Florida

Dayton Flyers vs. Florida Gators (-10,5 132.5)

Florida is part of the Elite Eight for the fourth straight season and looks for its 30th consecutive victory when it clashes with upstart Dayton in Saturday’s South regional title game at Memphis, Tenn. The top-seeded Gators haven’t advanced to the Final Four since winning their second consecutive national crown in 2007 and the senior-laden club is aware that another Elite Eight loss would be deflating. The 11th-seeded Flyers are in the Elite Eight for just the third time in school history.

Dayton continued its surprising run through the tournament with a Sweet 16 victory over Stanford and it would rank as a huge upset if the Flyers prevail against the Gators. Of course, all the pressure is on a Florida team that hasn’t lost since Dec. 2 and is forecasted to win the national title by numerous prognosticators. “Personally, I don’t feel like there’s anything to enjoy right now,” sophomore guard Michael Frazier II said after Thursday’s victory over UCLA. “We’re trying to keep advancing and you can’t take a breath because every team now is a good team.”

TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Gators as 10-point faves, but that has since been bet up to -10.5. The total opened 133.5 and has come down to 132.5.

INJURY REPORT: Florida - Dillon Graham, G (out for season)

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Florida has a big defensive edge and the better offense, but of course this is why they are a double-digit favorite. I can not see them losing straight-up, however covering the large pointspread is a different story because the Gators do not often win by a large margin since they play a slow, half-court style." Covers Experts' Steve Merril.

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "True David vs Goliath matchup for Dayton vs Florida. No wiseguy action on this game so far, but 63% of cash & 65% of bets are taking the double digit dog. Sharp action came on Wisconsin +3 on Friday morning, so moved Arizona to -2.5; I think a lot more people were impressed with what they saw from the Badgers than Wildcats on Thursday." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag

WHY BET DAYTON (26-10 SU, 20-12 ATS, 17-14 O/U): The Flyers don’t have the major pedigree or any big names – guard Jordan Sibert averages a modest 12.5 points to lead the team – but knocked out Ohio State and Syracuse prior to eliminating Stanford. The players have thrived on the lack of respect they feel from outsiders and have used it as fuel during the impressive tournament run. “Absolutely, that’s definitely something that we’ve been talking about all year,” Sibert said after Thursday’s win. “People have been doubting us and not giving us a lot of credit.”

WHY BET FLORIDA (35-2 SU, 18-14-1 ATS, 11-21-1 O/U): Frazier scored 19 points and made five 3-pointers in the victory over UCLA after struggling in the Gators’ first two NCAA tournament games. When Frazier (12.7 points, 111 3-pointers) is on his game, the inside opens up for forward Casey Prather (team-best 14 per game) and center Patric Young (10.8) as well as providing point guard Scottie Wilbekin (13.1) with increased room to operate and drive to the hoop. Frazier has made five or more 3-pointers nine times this season, topped by a school-record 11 against South Carolina on March 4.

TRENDS:

* Flyers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. Southeastern.
* Under is 31-14-1 in Gators last 46 overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Flyers last five Saturday games.

CONSENSUS: 65 percent of wagers are on Dayton.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Game Inside The Game: Can the Gators be chased?
By DAVID MALINSKY

And now on to the Elite Eight, as we search for some of the key matchup issues on the court that will most translate to the final score, searching for the “Game Inside The Game”.

Dayton vs. Florida: Can the Gators be chased?

When lines reach double figures, handicapping approaches must change. It is not about which team has the advantages to win, since there is already a major market consensus on that (in this game, Florida is as high as -750 on the Money Line). Instead, it becomes which team can best maximize the opportunities that will exist in the most likely game flow. The most likely, of course, being Florida having some degree of command. And that may be problematic for Dayton.

The savvy of the veteran Florida cast has been on display throughout the season, but where the poise and chemistry have been most evident in this tournament has been at crunch time. Not only are they well-versed in the various settings that an end-game can bring, but as a game progresses their experience also enables them to uncover weaknesses in an opponent.

Over the past two rounds, Florida has taken possession of the ball 29 times in the final 10:00 of play. On 22 of those trips the Gators put points on the board before the other side touched the ball again. That is a remarkable efficiency vs. the level of opposition they were up against. Yet it should not come as a surprise – they are rarely going to turn the ball over, and have the patience and confidence to work the shot clock until they find the look they want. As an opposing defense gets desperate when playing from behind, mistakes happen. Scottie Wilbekin & Co. are adept at recognizing and exploiting them.

One of the prime characteristics to look for when backing a big underdog is a team that has depth, and will continue to play hard regardless of the score. It brings the prospect of a Back Door Cover into play. Dayton has those qualities. But is it enough? Is this a favorite that may be too difficult to chase?

Wisconsin vs. Arizona: Is there enough “Swing Time”?

Extolling the virtues of the Arizona defense need not be long-winded – the Wildcats
are loaded with size and athleticism, and also the will to get down in a stance and guard to the end of the shot clock. They are #1 in the nation in both defensive efficiency and effective FG percentage allowed, and of 351 teams they are #347 in the amount of time it takes the opposition to get off a shot. If anything the defense might even be under-valued, because of how many easy points they generate for an otherwise mediocre offense.

But now comes a unique challenge – Bo Ryan and his “swing” offense. Ryan has compiled a 291-113 record playing in a tough conference despite having few big-time talents around. Current Badgers in the NBA: Devin Harris, Jon Leuer, Greg Stiemsma. Seriously, that is it. But this time around he has six players in the rotation that can score, and except for Nigel Hayes, they are all accurate beyond the three-point arc.

So now to the heart of the matter. Since his first season in Madison, Ryan is 17-6 ATS as a non-Big 10 underdog, with 10 outright wins and an O.T. loss. Using that non-conference measure is important, because it means charting teams that have little experience vs. his playbook. Sean Miller now gets only one day of practice to sort through those schemes, and he has decisions to make.

A matchup issue that has made this season’s Wisconsin offense so effective is the ability of Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker to step out and convert from long range. That means Wildcat interior defensive ace Kaleb Tarczewski being taken away from the basket to guard the perimeter, something that he rarely does. Can the Arizona defense continue to play well if it is “inverted”, with Tarczewski and Aaron Gordon having to get out to shooters? Might Miller throw in some zone wrinkles? Is there enough time?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's Elite 8 prop bets: Florida to start hot
By JUSTIN HARTLING

It's not a huge surprise, but odds favor the Florida Gators to get out to a quick start against Cinderella Dayton. The Gators are favored to crack the double-digit mark first (-180), then heavily favored to break past 20-points first (-270).

Here are all your prop odds for Saturday's Elite 8 match-ups (Odds courtesy of LVH Sportsbook):

DAYTON VS FLORIDA


TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 12.0 -110
UNDER 12.0 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 17.0 -110
UNDER 17.0 -110

TEAM TO SCORE 10 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
DAYTON +160
FLORIDA -180

TEAM TO SCORE 20 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
DAYTON +230
FLORIDA -270

TOTAL POINTS BY: JORDAN SIBERT (DAYTON)
OVER 11.5 -110
UNDER 11.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: DEVIN OLIVER (DAYTON)
OVER 10.5 -110
UNDER 10.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: SCOTTIE WILBEKIN (FLORIDA)
OVER 13.5 -110
UNDER 13.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: MICHAEL FRAZIER II (FLORIDA)
OVER 11.5 -110
UNDER 11.5 -110

WISCONSIN VS ARIZONA


TOTAL 3 POINT FIELD GOALS MADE BY: BOTH TEAMS
OVER 11.5 -110
UNDER 11.5 -110

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110

TEAM TO SCORE 10 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
WISCONSIN EVEN
ARIZONA -120

TEAM TO SCORE 20 OR MORE POINTS FIRST
WISCONSIN +105
ARIZONA -125

TOTAL POINTS BY: BEN BRUST (WISCONSIN)
OVER 12.5 -110
UNDER 12.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: TRAEVON JACKSON (WISCONSIN)
OVER 9.5 -110
UNDER 9.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: NICK JOHNSON (ARIZONA)
OVER 16.5 -110
UNDER 16.5 -110

TOTAL POINTS BY: AARON GORDON (ARIZONA)
OVER 13.5 -110
UNDER 13.5 -110

[golden contender]

GC: NBA Play

Saturday card has 5* 100% Elite 8 Power system Play + 3 Big NBA Plays and 2 are 5* one is a 19-2 side system the other the 94% Total of the Week. NCAAB Top play cashes + NBA Cashes big on Friday winning 3 of 4. Free NBA System Play below


On Saturday the NBA System Play is on Miami. Game 511 at 8:35 eastern. The Heat will most likely be without D-Wade so the line is dropping. However Miami has won and covered on several occasion without him. Last year they beat the Spurs in San Antonio without Lebron or Wade. Tonight they fit a powerful road warrior system that plays on road favorites with a win percentage of .690 or higher vs an opponent with a win percentage under .300 if both teams are off wins. Long term this system with a subset or two hits over 85%. Miami blasted the Pistons last night and will not be slowed down with no rest here. The Heat are 14-4 ats on the road when the total is 200 to 205 and the Bucks are 6-18 ats at home in that totals range. Miami has covered 6 of the last 7 in the series and 4 of the last 5 here. Look for Miami to turn up the Heat tonight. On Saturday we have another Powerful card with an Undefeated Elite 8 Power system play and a trio of NBA Plays. The best of which is the 5* NBA Totals of the week. Friday NCAAB and NBA Top plays cash big. Jump on now and cash out on Saturday night. For the free NBA Play. Make it Miami. GC