3-22-14

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Vegas Betting Experts

# 521 Pitt + 5 1/2
# 530 Michigan St. – 7

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Marc Lyle Sports Opening Day Baseball 56-31 All Sports Run

LA Dodgers

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Dave Essler
CBB GOY
NORTH DAKOTA STATE

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RAS SATURDAY


531 North Dakota State +4

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NCAA East Regional betting news and notes: Harvard's defense overrated?
By BRIAN COVERT

The Round of 32 opens in the East Regional Saturday. We look at the biggest betting news and notes coming out of that side of the bracket.

No. 4 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 12 Harvard Crimson (+7, 137)

In 10 career meetings, Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo is 7-3 versus Harvard’s Tommy Amaker (who coached the Michigan Wolverines from 2001-02 to 2006-07) winning by an average of 15.2 points.

Looking at the stats one would think the Crimson, the nation’s 15th-best defense this season, managed to find another notch against Cincinnati Thursday. But it may have been a case of the Bearcats just shooting terribly, going just 13 for 33 in the paint, getting just seven second-chance points on 15 offensive rebounds, and missing 13 dunks, layups, or tip ins.

No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (-3.5) vs. No. 7 Connecticut Huskies (+3.5, 132.5)

Senior guard Shabazz Napier was everything for the Huskies Thursday having a hand in 46 percent of Connecticut’s points after being involved in 36 percent of his team’s buckets in the team’s previous six games. However, Villanova prides itself on its on-ball pressure that seeks to contain quick, skilled ball handlers like Napier. In its opener Thursday, Villanova held UW-Milwaukee’s leading scorer to just six points on 1-for-15 shooting.

All week long, the Wildcats talked about getting off to fast starts. Yet, against UW-Milwaukee they started slowly, scoring just 18 points before going on a 9-0 run into the half at 27-23. It was the second slow start in a row for the Wildcats and a repeat performance could have dire consequences Saturday. Connecticut has the nation’s 33rd-best defense overall and the 23rd best second-half defense, holding teams to just 32.9 points in the game's second 20 minutes.

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NCAA Midwest Regional betting news and notes: Michigan bullied on the glass
By CHASE RUTTIG

The Midwest Regional opens the Round of 32 Saturday. Before you place your wagers, scan these quick-hitting betting news and notes for the Midwest matchups.

No. 2 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 7 Texas Longhorns (+5, 139)

Michigan will be favored heading into its second-round matchup when the Wolverines go up against the Texas Longhorns. However, the Wolverines may be feeling the impact of the season-ending injury of Mitch McGary for the first time in months. The Wolverines are 303rd in the nation in rebounding while the Longhorns are one of the NCAA's best interior teams at 41.4 rebounds per game - good for fourth in the nation.

Texas outworked a tough Arizona State squad on the boards in their opener, with 10 of its 30 rebounds coming on the offensive end. No offensive rebound was more important than Cameron Ridley's putback at the buzzer that gave the Longhorns the 87-85 win. Ridley finished with 12 rebounds to go along with 17 points.

No. 4 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 5 St. Louis Billikens (+9, 133)

Saint Louis head coach Jim Crews hopes his Billikens can return to form at the free-throw line Saturday after going 12 for 26 from from the stripe in Thursday's opener against North Carolina State. Typically, Saint Louis shoots an average 70 percent from the line, and if it wants to stay with the defending national champions, the Billikens will have to improve from the charity stripe.

"We missed a ton of free throws tonight, and we missed some other opportunities both defensively and offensively, but I thought during the process it was pretty good," Crews said of Saint Louis performance Thursday. "We were getting what we wanted to get, but we weren't cashing in on it. I can't salute these guys enough in terms of how they just stayed with it."

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NCAA South Regional betting news and notes: D will decide Pitt-Florida outcome

Eight teams remain in the South Regional portion of the NCAA tournament. Here's a look at Saturday's third-round matchups:

No. 9 Pittsburgh Panthers vs. No. 1 Florida Gators (-5, 124)

Fans hoping for a high-scoring shootout will likely disappointed; the Gators and their stifling press-heavy defense allowed the third-fewest points in the country heading into the tournament (57.9 per game), while the Panthers ranked 20th in the nation (61.9) and limited Colorado to 48 points in their tournament-opening 77-48 rout of the Buffaloes.

With both teams boasting potent half-court defenses, added emphasis will be placed on their ability to hit from outside - and judging by their performances in their respective tournament openers, that could prove daunting. The Gators shot just 4-for-12 from 3-point range in an unimpressive win over Albany, while the Panthers were just 4-of-14 in their one-sided victory over Colorado.

No. 11 Dayton Flyers vs. No. 3 Syracuse Orange (-6.5, 128)

The Flyers are one of the few teams in the tournament not shy about rotating as many as 11 players in a given game; they did just that in their tournament-opening 60-59 upset of Ohio State, and it caught the attention of Syracuse assistant coach Mike Hopkins. "They played 11 guys, they've got a lot of depth, they kept rotating guys in and out," Hopkins told the Syracuse Post-Standard.

The Orange do have some familiarity with the Flyers: star guard Tyler Ennis played with Dayton guard Dyshawn Pierre for CIA Bounce of the AAU. Ennis' dad was the head coach. "I'm kind of familiar with his game," Ennis said of Pierre, who had three free throws down the stretch to help the Flyers eliminate the Buckeyes. "He's one of the most underrated players in the country. He always hits big shots."

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NCAA West Regional betting news and notes: Homecourt for Badgers
By COLIN KELLY

The West Regional kicks off the Round of 32 Saturday. Check out these quick-hitting betting news and notes before placing your wagers on the West side of the bracket.

No. 12 North Dakota State Bison vs. No. 4 San Diego State Aztecs (-3, 125.5)

North Dakota State has only been in Division I since 2004, but the Bison have slayed a few dragons, with the biggest coming in Thursday’s 80-75 overtime upset of Oklahoma in the NCAA Tournament’s West Regional. NDSU’s first huge win came at Wisconsin in January 2006. The Bison then won at Marquette in December 2006, and in nonconference play this year, they stunned host Notre Dame. San Diego State – a 3-point favorite, just like Oklahoma – will have its hands full in Saturday’s Round of 32.

San Diego State knows this scenario all too well. Just a year ago, in the Round of 64, the Aztecs beat Oklahoma – the same team North Dakota State stunned on Thursday night – and it appeared No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast did San Diego State a huge favor by shocking No. 2 seed Georgetown. Instead, FGCU became the first No. 15 seed to reach the Sweet 16 by bouncing the Aztecs 81-71 in the Round of 32. Another year, another Cinderella opponent for SDSU.

No. 7 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers (-5, 142)

Wisconsin’s defense could be a huge key today, based on a stat thrown out on Twitter by Jim Polzin, Badgers beat writer for the Wisconsin State Journal. In Wisconsin’s 75-35 blowout of No. 15 seed American Thursday, the Eagles averaged a meager 0.61 points per possession. Polzin noted that was a season low by a Badgers opponent. Wisconsin, meanwhile, averaged more than twice that at 1.29 points per possession, including 1.48 in the second half.

The Badgers will have a huge homecourt advantage playing in Milwaukee Saturday, a fact not lost at all on Oregon coach Dana Altman. Steve Mims, Oregon basketball beat writer for the Eugene Register-Guard, tweeted out Altman’s thoughts: “We basically have a road game. They’ll have 20,000 fans cheering, we will have 300.”

Oregon pounded Brigham Young 87-68 laying 4.5 points in Thursday’s Round of 64. But that’s not the only momentum the Ducks carry into today’s tilt with Wisconsin. As Steve Mims of the Oregon Register-Guard tweeted out, Thursday’s win marked the first time in school history that the Ducks have won a game in back-to-back NCAA Tournaments.

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NBA

Hot teams
-- Trailblazers won three of their last four games.
-- Rockets won seven of their last ten games.
-- Pacers won five of their last six games. Grizzlies won six of last eight.
-- Miami won three of its last four games.
-- Spurs won their last 12 games, covered their last six. Golden State won eight of its last ten games.
-- Clippers won 11 of their last 12 games.

Cold Teams
-- Charlotte lost last two games, after winning six of previous seven.
-- Cavaliers lost last three games, by 22-4-7 points.
-- 76ers lost their last 23 games, but covered five of last seven. Chicago covered once in its last six games.
-- New Orleans lost three of its last four home games.
-- Magic lost their last seven games (2-5 vs spread). Utah lost its last six games (2-3-1 vs spread).
-- Pistons lost seven of their last eight games.

Series records
-- Bobcats lost eight of last nine games with Portland.
-- Rockets won five of last six games with Cleveland.
-- 76ers lost five of last six games with Chicago.
-- Pacers won their last three games with Memphis.
-- Pelicans lost their last five games with Miami.
-- Jazz won their last six games with Orlando.
-- Warriors lost their last four games with San Antonio.
-- Clippers won their last five games with Detroit.

Totals
-- Six of last seven Portland games went over total.
-- Five of last six Houston games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Philly games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Indiana games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Miami games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Utah-Orlando games went over total.
-- Eight of last ten San Antonio road games went over.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Clipper games.

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Gold Sheet key releases:
Florida
Wisconsin

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Cappers Access

Pittsburgh +5.5
St Louis +9
Oklahoma St -3
Wisconsin -5

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Saturday

Louisville -9

Boston Bruins -135

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Connecticut vs. Villanova

The Huskies needed overtime to get past St. Joseph's and now face a Villanova team that is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between the two teams. Villanova is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

SATURDAY, MARCH 22 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 517-518: Dayton vs. Syracuse (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 62.536; Syracuse 72.193 Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 9 1/2; 121 Vegas Line: Syracuse by 7; 127 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-7); Under

Game 519-520: Connecticut vs. Villanova (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 68.501; Villanova 74.492 Dunkel Line: Villanova by 6; 139 Vegas Line: Villanova by 3 1/2; 132 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-3 1/2); Over

Game 521-522: Pittsburgh vs. Florida (12:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 66.735; Florida 77.170 Dunkel Line: Florida by 10 1/2; 118 Vegas Line: Florida by 5; 124 Dunkel Pick: Florida (-5); Under

Game 523-524: St. Louis vs. Louisville (2:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 67.964; Louisville 75.059 Dunkel Line: Louisville by 7; 139 Vegas Line: Louisville by 9 1/2; 133 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+9 1/2); Over

Game 525-526: Oregon vs. Wisconsin (7:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 71.611; Wisconsin 70.567 Dunkel Line: Oregon by 1; 142 Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 5; 145 Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+5); Under

Game 527-528: Texas vs. Michigan (5:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas 64.675; Michigan 72.486 Dunkel Line: Michigan by 8; 144 Vegas Line: Michigan by 4 1/2; 139 Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-4 1/2); Over

Game 529-530: Harvard vs. Michigan State (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 65.147; Michigan State 69.338 Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 4; 144 Vegas Line: Michigan State by 7 1/2; 137 Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+7 1/2); Over

Game 531-532: North Dakota State vs. San Diego State (6:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 62.212; San Diego State 70.812 Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 8 1/2; 123 Vegas Line: San Diego State by 3; 125 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-3); Under

Game 533-534: Louisiana Tech at Georgia (11:00 a.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 64.415; Georgia 67.815 Dunkel Line: Georgia by 3 1/2 Vegas Line: Georgia by 1 Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-1)

Game 541-542: IPFW at VMI (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: IPFW 54.462; VMI 55.823 Dunkel Line: VMI by 1 1/2 Vegas Line: IPFW by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: VMI (+1 1/2)

Game 543-544: Wright State at Ohio (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 58.065; Ohio 55.477 Dunkel Line: Wright State by 2 1/2 Vegas Line: Ohio by 3 Dunkel Pick: Wright State (+3)

Game 545-546: Yale at Holy Cross (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Yale 47.938; Holy Cross 53.875 Dunkel Line: Holy Cross by 6 Vegas Line: Holy Cross by 4 Dunkel Pick: Holy Cross (-4)

Game 547-548: Eastern Michigan at Columbia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 55.065; Columbia 53.401 Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 1 1/2 Vegas Line: Columbia by 2 Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+2)

Game 549-550: San Diego at Sam Houston State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 59.803; Sam Houston State 50.660 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 9 Vegas Line: San Diego by 1 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-1)

Game 551-552: TX-Corpus Christi at Pacific (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: TX-Corpus Christi 50.406; Pacific 51.462 Dunkel Line: Pacific by 1 Vegas Line: Pacific by 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: TX-Corpus Christi (+8 1/2)

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NCAAB

Saturday, March 22

NCAA games

Syracuse is playing couple hours from home in Buffalo, its an arena, not a dome, so their home court edge is even bigger here. Orange stumbled to 3-5 finish after being 25-0 at one point, but having Grant back in lineup opens up shots for Cooney and makes Syracuse potent on offense. Dayton is 4-6 vs top 50 teams; they've won 11 of last 13 games overall, are off dramatic win vs in-state rival Ohio State that had refused to play them. Flyers beat Ga Tech by 10, its only game with an ACC opponent. Over last four years, #11 seeds are 5-3 vs spread in this round. Last five years, second round favorites of 6+ points are 20-13-1 vs spread.

Villanova was 1-19 from arc before hitting three of last four vs Milwaukee in first round; Wildcats won four of last five second round games- they beat UConn 70-61 LY in last Big East meeting, ending 4-game series skid. Over last nine years, favorites are 8-11-1 vs spread in 2-7 second round games. UConn needed OT to beat St Joe's Thursday, despite making 11-24 on arc; Boatright/Napier both played 42:00 vs St Joe's; three others played 30:00+. Last five years, second round favorites of 6+ points are 20-13-1 vs spread. UConn won six of last seven first round games, but those with Calhoun as coach- Thursday was Ollie's first tournament win.

Pitt crushed shorthanded Colorado Thursday; Panthers are 1-3 in last four second round games, and weren't underdog in any of them, losing by 11-1-3 points. Over last five years, #1 seeds are 12-7-1 vs spread in this round. Florida was tested by Albany for 30:00 Thursday; Gators beat Florida State by point in only game vs ACC team. Panthers didn't play an ACC team but they also played Albany and beat Danes by same 12 points that Florida did. Over last six seasons, second round favorites of 6 or less points are 30-20 vs spread. Florida hasn't lost since Dec 2 vs UConn. #1 seeds are 33-3 SU in this round the last nine years.

Defending champ Lousiville was tested in fierce struggle with Manhattan Thursday, tough game for Pitino against old friend. Cardinals won 12 of last 13 games, face offensively-challenged Saint Louis squad that rallied to beat NC State after being down 16 with 8:13 to go- they lost four of last six games after being 25-2 at one point; nine of last ten games were decided by 7 or less points. Over last six years, second round favorites of 8+ points are 15-10-1 vs spread. Billikens are very good at defending arc (29.1%, #3) Billikens have edge in experience; they're 8-5 vs top 100 teams, 19-1 vs everyone else.

Over last nine years, favorites are 8-11-1 vs spread in 2-7 second round games. Wisconsin is 17-12 in NCAA tourney under Ryan, but 13 of 17 wins were against teams seeded 10th or lower; Badgers had 40-5 run vs American Thursday; they won 10 of last 12 games. Oregon won eight of last nine games, getting beat by UCLA in Pac-12 tourney; Ducks beat Illinois 71-64 on December, its only game vs Big Dozen opponent this season. Wisconsin is #2 in country at protecting ball, turning it over only 12.6% of time. Ducks are 13-0 outside Pac-12; they're 4-0 in OT games this season.

Michigan State is finally healthy, winning last four games after going 5-7 in last dozen regular season games; Spartans beat Columbia by 9 back in November, its only game vs Ivy foe. Harvard beat Cincinnati, lost by 5 at UConn in its only top 50 games. #12 seeds covered five of their last six second round games when facing a #4 seed. Crimson made 38.8% on arc this season (#26 in US); they were only 6-17 from arc vs Cincinnati, but all seemed to come in key spots when Bearcats were making runs at them. Spartans have lot of depth because of all the injuries they've had; they're average defending the 3, but Harvard won't push them around.

North Dakota State won its last ten games and 24 of last 27; they've got #23 team in country in experience here, starting three seniors and junior- they won at Notre Dame before Grant got hurt, but they also lost by 17 at Ohio State, 13 at St Mary's, 1 at home to Southern Miss. Aztecs won seven of last eight games, losing to Lobos in Mountain West tourney in Vegas; they don't shoot ball especially well, but after losing in this round to Florida Gulf Coast LY, they won't be overlooking Bison. #12 seeds covered five of their last six second round games when facing a #4 seed. Bison were down 4 with 0:38 left vs Oklahoma, rallied for unlikely win.

Beilein vs Barnes is immense tactical mismatch. Michigan lost by 7 at Iowa State in its one game vs Big X opponent. Texas is 6-6 in its last 12 games; biggest indictment I can think of them were last five points they scored vs Arizona State, getting rebounds off missed shots, neither of which hit rim- they got lucky. Longhorns lost by 14 to Michigan State in its one Big Dozen game- they're 2-4 in last six NCAA tourney games, with all four losses hy 5 or less points- they do not have senior in their rotation, are 12-2 outside Big X. Both these teams are in bottom 20 in country in terms of experience. Michigan is 8-1 in last nine games, 20-4 in last 24 games overall.

Other games
Louisiana Tech won seven of last eight games; they're 4-3 in last seven true road games. Georgia won its last six home games; its last home loss was Jan 29 to Vandy; Dawgs won four of last games overall.

Fort Wayne won six of last seven games, losing to North Dakota State by 3 in Summit final; Mastadons won last three true road games- they're #19 in country, making 39.1% from arc. VMI scored 84+ points in its last five wins, 78 or less in last four losses.

Wright State won seven of last eight games, losing Horizon final at home to Milwaukee; Raiders split pair of 3-point decisions with MAC teams this season. Ohio split pair of games with Horizon teams, beating Valpo by 4, losing at Oakland by 17.

Yale lost four of last six games but edged Quinnipiac by point at home in last game; Bulldogs won by 3 at Lafayette in its only games with Patriot League foe. Holy Cross split pair of games with Ivy League opponents.

Columbia won four of last five home games; Lions are 11-6 in non-Ivy games. Eastern Michigan won seven of its last nine games, but lost last three true road games. Columbia makes 37.7% of its 3's, which helps going against Syracuse-like 2-3 zone.

San Diego tied for 6th in down year in WCC; Toreros are last team that beat Gonzaga- they lost six of last nine true road games. Sam Houston won five of last six games- they lost to SF Austin in Southland final, after finishing third during regular season.

Corpus Christi finished 2nd in Southland; they've won eight of last nine games overall. Islanders won their last five home games. Pacific has all five starters back from LY but went 6-12 in first year in WCC, which is lot stronger than Big West, their old league.