12-28-13

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NCAA Football Game Picks

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 28 Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16)

Game 223-224: Rutgers vs. Notre Dame (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 70.366; Notre Dame 98.894 Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 28 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 15; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-15); Under

Game 225-226: Cincinnati vs. North Carolina (3:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 94.040; North Carolina 94.290 Dunkel Line: Even; 62 Vegas Line: North Carolina by 3; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3); Over

Game 227-228: Miami (FL) vs. Louisville (6:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 84.791; Louisville 97.430 Dunkel Line: Louisville by 12 1/2; 52 Vegas Line: Louisville by 3; 56 Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-3); Under

Game 229-230: Michigan vs. Kansas State (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 96.329; Kansas State 96.945 Dunkel Line: Even; 52 Vegas Line: Kansas State by 4; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+4); Under

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Jackpot Sports

Bowl Game

Miami FL +3.5

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J. Clifton

Bowl Game

LOUISVILLE -3

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Prediction Machine

SIDES

225 CIN vs UNC 3 2.2 57.2% $51
229 MICH vs KANST 3.5 1.4 56.7% $45
228 LOU vs MIA-FL -3 5.5 53.9% $16
223 RUT vs ND 15.5 -13.6 52.6% $2

Straight-Up Picks

224 ND vs RUT 32.2 18.6 71.9%
228 LOU vs MIA-FL 28.3 22.8 58.5%
225 CIN vs UNC 28.5 26.3 53.1%
229 MICH vs KANST 26.4 25.0 51.5%

Over/Under Picks

228MIA-FL vs. LOU 56.5 51.1 - Under 57.3% $52
230MICH vs. KANST 56.5 51.4 - Under 57.0% $48
226CIN vs. UNC 56.5 54.8 - Under 52.3% $0
224RUT vs. ND 51 50.7 - Under 50.4% $0

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H&H Sports

CFB
Double Dime Louisville

Dime Plays
Notre Dame
Cincinnati
Kansas State

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Dave Essler

CFB Side - Saturday, Dec 28 2013 6:45PM
228 Louisville -3.0(-110) vs 227 Miamidouble-dime bet

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College Bowl Betting Preview
Sportspic

Pinstripe Bowl


Rutgers (6-6, 4-7 ATS) vs. Notre Dame (8-4, 5-6 ATS)

Location: Yankee Stadium, New York, New York

Opening Line: Notre Dame -15.5
Current Line: Notre Dame -15.5
Percentage of Action: 61% Rutgers

Key Betting Trends:
Rutgers: 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven bowl games
Notre Dame: Under is 5-1 in last six games

Analysis: Last year, Rutgers lost in overtime in their bowl game, failing to cover as a one-point underdog. Fighting Irish were playing for the national title last year, losing badly as a dog. Potentially, the letdown factor may come into play for this contest. Early action gives the advantage to the Scarlet Knights, though no movement on the line. Taking the points could be the way to go here.

Lean: Rutgers


Belk Bowl


Cincinnati (9-3, 6-6 ATS) vs. North Carolina (6-6, 6-5 ATS)

Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

Opening Line: North Carolina -3
Current Line: North Carolina -3
Percentage of Action: 61% Cincinnati

Key Betting Trends:
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS last two seasons in road games after a conference matchup
North Carolina: Under is 6-3 as a favorite of less than a touchdown

Analysis: Cincinnati returns to the Belk Bowl for the second consecutive season, where they covered as nine-point favorites last year. Tar Heels’ last bowl game was two years ago, losing by double digits as a +5.5 underdog. Early money has moved in Cincy’s direction, though underdog North Carolina will be playing in their backyard. Still, the Bearcats are familiar with the surroundings, and are a good enough team that getting points is a reason to look at them.

Lean: Cincinnati


Russell Athletic Bowl


Matchup: Miami (9-3, 5-7 ATS) vs. Louisville (11-1, 5-7 ATS)

Location: Citrus Bowl Stadium, Orlando, Florida

Opening Line: Louisville -3
Current Line: Louisville -3
Percentage of Action: 74% Louisville

Key Betting Trends:
Miami: 10-1 ATS when line is three points or less either way
Louisville: 2-9 ATS against poor passing defenses over the past two seasons

Analysis: The Hurricanes return to bowl action after a three-year absence. Their last postseason matchup ended in a double-digit defeat as a -2.5 favorite. Louisville’s one defeat likely cost them a spot in a BCS bowl, so the letdown factor may be in play. Last season, the Cardinals were two touchdown underdogs, but pulled off a 10-point upset in the Sugar Bowl. Early action is on Louisville, but Miami seems to thrive when in the role of a small dog, so grabbing the points sounds like the best option.

Lean: Miami


Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl


Michigan (7-5, 7-5 ATS) vs. Kansas State (7-5, 7-5 ATS)

Location: Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, Arizona

Opening Line: Kansas State -3
Current Line: Kansas State -3
Percentage of Action: 61% Kansas State

Key Betting Trends:
Michigan: 0-7 ATS after losing home game by three points or less
Kansas State: 25-12 ATS over the past three seasons

Analysis: Both teams were mirror images of each other, with the exact same overall and ATS marks. In their last 10 trips to a bowl game, Michigan has won just three times. The Wolverines narrowly covered in their bowl matchup last year, losing by five as a +5.5 dog. The Wildcats have failed to win their last five trips to a bowl game. Getting eight points in last year’s bowl game didn’t help Kansas State, which lost by 18. Early money gives a slight edge to the Wildcats, and with the Wolverines coming up just short in their rivalry game, the favorite could be the better option.

Lean: Kansas State

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Bowl Betting Notes

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+14.5, 52.5)

New Jersey-based Rutgers earned its pinstripes based far more on geography than football success. The Bronx-bound Scarlet Knights were a woeful 2-5 SU/ATS down the stretch, leading to the firing of their defensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and offensive line coach this week.

With Rutgers reeling, Notre Dame opened as high as a 17-point favorite before being bet down. The Irish are an impressive 15-0 SU dating back to Oct. 2011 when favored by 10 or more points, but are just 6-9 ATS over that span.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (+3, 56.5)

North Carolina may have overcome a 1-5 start to earn a bowl bid, but beware UNC playing on state soil in the postseason. The favored Tar Heels are 0-3 lifetime in bowl games played in Carolina.

Cincinnati returns to the Belk Bowl for the second straight year, defeating Duke 48-34 in last season’s game. The Bearcats only have one victory versus a team with a winning record this season.

Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes (+3, 57)

Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater wasn’t picked as a Heisman finalist after managing only five TD passes over his last four games. He threw for 24 touchdowns in the Cardinals’ first eight games.

Miami started the season 7-0 SU and finished it 1-6 ATS.

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines (+3.5, 55)

Slow start, solid finish. K-State opened the season 2-4, before winning five of its last six and ending the year on a 6-2 ATS run.

Solid start, bad finish. Michigan started 6-1, before losing four of its last five to close out the regular season. The Wolverines did finish, however, on a 3-0 ATS run, including their highly-publicized one-point loss to Ohio State at the Big House.

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Sports Insights Bowl Picks

TOP PLAYS

227 Citrus Bowl: Miami/Louisville over 56.5 – This should have no problem getting over. Strong math support and when Louisville plays someone that can score, they throw more often, which is a good thing for them because Bridgewater is the best QB in the country IMO.

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UFC 168 betting: Rousey huge fave in rematch for women's title
By MMAODDSBREAKER

The co-main event for UFC 168 is going to be a rematch for the womens bantamweight title between the challenger Miesha Tate and the defending champion Ronda Rousey.

Tate is a large underdog in this matchup at +600, while Rousey is a huge favorite at -900.

Tate (13-4 MMA, 0-1 UFC) made her Octagon debut against Cat Zingano at the Ultimate Fighter 17 finale eight months ago. She got the better of Zingano in the first two rounds of action, convincingly winning each frame with her wrestling. She ran out of gas, however, in the third round, and Zingano got the better of her, landing some brutal strikes, especially with her knees. After a number of unanswered strikes, referee Kim Winslow stepped in to stop the fight, simultaneously as Tate was attempting a takedown.

Zingago won the job of coaching against Ronda Rousey on the following season of The Ultimate Fighter with Rousey’s title on the line. Unfortunately, Zingano suffered a knee injury and backed out of the coaching gig. Conveniently, she was replaced by Tate, who many believe the UFC were hoping would win the fight. Tate coached opposite Rousey on the reality series, and had quite a successful run. Both of her fighters went on to win the tournament; Julianna Pena for the women, and Chris Holdsworth for the men.

“Cupcake” has poor striking skills, but she has been working on it. She is a talented wrestler who works solid takedowns, as her former nickname would suggest. Tate owns two ‘female fighter of the year’ awards, and two ‘submission of the year’ awards. She is a talented submission artist who has won six of her 13 professional mixed martial arts bouts by way of tapout. Her conditioning is not very good, as was evident in her last outing against Zingano. If she did not run out of gas, she would have very likely secured a unanimous 30-27 decision.

Rousey (7-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) survived a first round standing rear naked choke by Liz Carmouche at UFC 157 over 10 months ago, and then came back to defeat her with her infamous armbar with only 11 seconds remaining in the very same round. The victory marked her first in the Octagon, and seventh in a row in the sport; all seven coming by way of armbar submission within the very first frame of action.

Five of her stoppage victories have occurred in under one minute. Rousey is an Olympic bronze medalist judoka who is an extraordinary grappler. She works beautiful takedowns, and her submission game is excellent. She is raw in the stand-up department, but has been working her striking with coach Edvard Tarverdyan, and has been making improvements in that department.

Though she has never been out of the first round, Rousey takes her training and cardio very seriously, so I expect her to have the advantage in the conditioning department against Tate, as she heads into this championship rematch. “Rowdy” is an incredible tough fighter who is full of heart and has no quit in her. She will be after Tate from the opening bell, looking to hurt her, and finish her.

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Bowl betting: Michigan to start true freshman

Michigan will start true freshman Shane Morrris in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl in place for starter Devin Gardner, who will not play due to a broken foot.

Michigan (7-5 ATS) opened as 3-point dogs to Kansas State (7-5 ATS) and were bet to +4.5. The news of the change at quarterback caused another line jump and the Wolverines are now 5.5-point dogs heading into Saturday's macthup.

Gardner was on crutches when Michigan, who has lost four of its last five games, left Ann Arbor for Phoenix. Gardner suffered the injury in the regular season finale against Ohio State.

Morris has attempted nine passes in two games this season, completing five of them.

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Scott Ferrall paid picks

Rutgers
NOTRE DAME -15


CINCINNATI +3
North Carolina


MIAMI (FL) +3
Louisville


MICHIGAN +3 ½
Kansas State

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New Era Pinstripe Bowl betting What bettors need to know

Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-14, 52.5)

Game will be played at Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York

NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL STORYLINES:
1. It’s a long fall from the BCS National Championship game to the New Era Pinstripe Bowl, but Notre Dame will take it after dropping two of its final three in the regular season. The Fighting Irish will meet Rutgers at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx on Dec. 28. The Scarlet Knights managed to salvage bowl eligibility in their final regular-season game, snapping a three-game slide with a 31-6 triumph over South Florida to even their record at 6-6.

2. Notre Dame challenged itself with another tough schedule and didn’t quite have enough to knock off teams like Oklahoma and Stanford this season. The most crushing defeat came at Pittsburgh on Nov. 9, when Tommy Rees threw a pair of fourth-quarter interceptions in a 28-21 loss that knocked the Irish out of BCS bowl contention.

3. Rutgers allowed an average of 40.3 points in a three-game losing streak before the defense stepped up against South Florida and secured the school’s eighth bowl bid in nine years. The Scarlet Knights are attempting to gain some momentum for the program as they head into the Big Ten next season.

TV: Noon ET, ESPN.

LINE: Notre Dame opened at -15.5 and have been bet down to -14. The total has stayed put at 52.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low 40s with a nine mph wind blowing towards the Northeast end zone.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (8-4, 5-6-1 ATS): Rees took over at the beginning of the season when Everett Golson was dismissed and put up three straight 300-yard passing games to begin the season before hitting the mark only once in the last nine contests. Rees ended up completing 53.7 percent of his passes for 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions but will go into the bowl game without offensive coordinator Chuck Martin, who took over the head coaching job at Miami (Ohio). Notre Dame was at times carried by its defense, which also lost its leader when coordinator Bob Diaco was hired as the head coach of Connecticut.

ABOUT RUTGERS (6-6, 4-8 ATS): The Scarlet Knights also saw a mass exodus on the coaching staff but in a less positive way, as head coach Kyle Flood let go of his defensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and offensive line coach after the disappointing regular season. The defense allowed a school-record 3,737 passing yards and surrendered an average of 29.8 points, prompting the dismissal of coordinator Dave Cohen. The offense fully committed to quarterback Chas Dodd the last two games and was rewarded with an efficient 19-for-24 effort for 179 yards and a pair of scores in the season-ending win.

TRENDS:
* Rutgers is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven bowl games.
* Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Rutgers' last five games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Notre Dame's last six games in December.

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Belk Bowl betting What bettors need to know

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5, 56.5)

Game will be played at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

BELK BOWL STORYLINES:
1. North Carolina won five of its final six games to become bowl eligible after starting 1-5 and was rewarded with its fourth trip to the Belk Bowl on Dec. 28 in Charlotte, N.C., where it will meet Cincinnati. The Tar Heels became only the sixth team since the regular season expanded to 12 games in 2006 to start the season so poorly and make a bowl game. North Carolina, which did not participate in the postseason last year due to bowl sanctions, is searching for just its second bowl win since 2001.

2. Cincinnati will end its season in Charlotte for the second straight season against an opponent from the state of North Carolina after defeating Duke 48-34 in last year’s contest. With newly hired Tommy Tuberville acting as a “watching head coach” (as he called it in a recent press conference), the Bearcats won despite the departure of coach Butch Jones and both of his coordinators after they accepted similar positions at Tennessee.

3. Despite a decided home-field advantage (Charlotte is located about 2 1/2 hours southwest of Chapel Hill), the Tar Heels are still in search of their first Belk Bowl victory. North Carolina – which is 2-0 all-time against Cincinnati – fell to Boston College in 2004, West Virginia in 2008 and Pittsburgh in 2009 – the last two losses coming by a combined three points.

TV: 3:20 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: North Carolina opened at -3 and now sit at -2.5. The total has moved up slightly from 56 to 56.5.

WEATHER: There is a 29 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the high 40s.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (9-3, 6-6 ATS): The Bearcats – winners of six of seven – are striving for their sixth 10-win season in the last seven years after coming up short in an overtime loss to conference champion Louisville. Brendon Kay directs the country’s 15th-ranked passing attack while Cincinnati is one of five teams in the FBS holding opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing per game. While Cincinnati has typically been proficient offensively, it hasn’t always been efficient, committing at least two turnovers in four straight contests and eight times overall this season.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (6-6, 7-5 ATS): Marquise Williams filled in admirably once starting quarterback Bryn Renner was lost for the season in early November, accounting for 1,279 total yards and 13 total touchdowns while leading the Tar Heels to a 3-1 finish. Eric Ebron (55 catches, 895 yards), who has already announced he will enter May’s NFL Draft, is widely considered to be the best tight end in the country. Freshman Ryan Switzer tied the ACC single-season record with four punt return touchdowns in only three games.

TRENDS:
* Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.
* North Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Cincinnati's last five neutral site games.
* Over is 4-1 in North Carolina's last five bowl games.