10-27-13

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CHAD MATTHEWS

2-Unit Play. #211 Dallas Cowboys VS Detroit Lions - OVER 51 points (Sept 27 @ 1pmET)
The Dallas Cowboys and the Detroit Lions meet up this Sunday at Ford Field in what should be an offensive showdown. The Cowboys are averaging 28.5 points per game this season with the Lions averaging 26.5 points per game. On the defensive side of things both teams are giving up an average of almost 400 yards a game. Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has completed 68% of his passes this season for 2,010 yards and Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has completed 61% of his passes for 2,129 this season. This is a classic quarterback matchup between Romo and Stafford and expect both teams to air it out this weekend in Detroit. Take the OVER 51 points

4-Unit Play. #229 Green Bay Packers -8.5 over the Minnesota Vikings (Sept 27 @ 8:30pmET)
The Green Bay Packers head to Minnesota for a rivalry match up with the Vikings. The Vikings have been a huge disappointment to bettors all season long and again they are having problems under the center. This weekend Vikings quarterback Josh Freeman has been ruled out due to concussion type symptoms and the Vikings decided to turn to quarterback Christian Ponder to replace him. Ponder started off the season with the Vikings only to disappoint and be replaced by Cassell until the Vikings finally signed Josh Freeman two weeks ago. Last week the Vikings lost to the then 0-6 Giants 23-7 as 4 point dogs and the week prior got blown out at home against the Carolina Panthers 35-10 as 3 point favorites. The Vikings need to rebuild. They have no defense, their offense is completely out of sync and they have no business even at home being a 8.5 dog against this talented Packers team. It's a no brainer here, take the Packers and lay the road chalk and take the -8.5

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DOC SPORTS

2 Unit Play. #210/#110 Take Jacksonville Jaguars +17 over San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 1 pm Fox) The NFL sure has a way of attracting fans in Europe by always making sure they send over one of the worst teams in league. It is widely assumed that Jacksonville is the worst of 32 teams in the league, but we are getting value with them and will use them for the second time in three weeks. Jacksonville has some playmakers on offense with Justin Blackmon and Maurice Jones-Drew. Jacksonville actually plays better on the road than they do at home. But what this play comes down to is jet leg for San Francisco as they flew straight from Nashville to London and they will be two weeks away from the Bay Area. This will be tough for anybody to overcome, and I expect San Francisco to come into this game flat. San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

2 Unit Play. #220/#114 Take New England Patriots -6 over Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Fins promising start has come apart at the seams, and this is a must-win game for Dolphins if they have any visions of winning the AFC East. That bad part is that they are facing an angry team, and New England always seems to bounce back well off of a loss, going 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss in their previous year. Miami cannot protect its quarterback and despite injuries on defense, I still expect New England to get to the quarterback early and often. I also expect Rob Gronkowski to play better in his second game back as he had a key drop in the fourth quarter that would have likely won the game for the Patriots last week. Miami is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. New England is 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games played during the month of October.

3 Unit Play. #224/#122 Take Oakland Raiders +2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS)
Top NFL Game of the Week.
The Steelers are on a winning streak after two straight wins, but I expect that to end in the Bay Area this week. Oakland made the right decision by starting Terrele Pryor this season as he is 3-1 ATS in games that he started and finished. The Pittsburgh defense is not what it once was, creating just two turnovers this season and only 6 sacks. It will be important for Oakland to protect their quarterback in this game, and if they do that they can win this game straight up. Oakland is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played during Week 8 of the NFL season. Pittsburgh is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.

2 Unit Play. #228/#124 Take Arizona Cardinals -3 over Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) The Falcons are one of if not the hardest-hit team to injuries this season in the NFL. Arizona has better talent than their record would indicate, and most of that is due to the play of Carson Palmer. Atlanta is just 1-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 road games. Arizona has always seemed to play well against bad teams, going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record. The cross country flight does in the Falcons as we collect with the Redbirds.

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VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS

3 Unit Play. #212 Take Detroit -3 over Dallas (1:00p.m., Sunday, Oct 27)
The Lions killed us last week losing to the Bengals but this week we see the Lions defense finally step up. Dallas comes to Motown on a 2-game winning streak beating both division teams (Philly & Washington) but I see this Lions team a much tougher challenge then the NFC East teams. I see another big game from Calvin Johnson and look for Reggie Bush to also have a big home game. The Lions team should play how the Broncos played against the Boys. Fast and quick and don't give the Boys defense a time to catch their breathe.

2 Unit Play. #218 Take New Orleans -11 over Buffalo (1:00p.m., Sunday, Oct 27)

5 Unit Play. #225 Take Over 57 ½ - Washington at Denver (4:25p.m., Sunday, Oct 27)
(Total Game of the Week)
Why not! We are talking about the Broncos offense against a horrible Redskins defense. Last week Washington gave up 41 points to the Bears which didn't had Cutler at QB for most of the game. Denver is coming off a Sunday night loss to the Colts which Denver only scored 33 points but the game went over. Denver is 6-1 in their first 7 games but they are a perfect 7-0 O/U in those 7 games and I don't see the defense of Washington slowing down this offense. The Redskins defense has given up a total of 72 points in 2 games and both of those teams didn't have an offense like Denver. This game will feel like a video type scoring game and I see Denver having no trouble scoring on the Washington defense. Denver is 13-2-1 O/U after scoring more than 30 points in their last game. Denver is also 21-6-1 O/U in their last 28 home games.

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS

NFL Plays

3-Unit Play. Take #223 Pittsburgh (-2.5) over Oakland (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)
Pittsburgh similar to Carolina is starting to play well. Their offense is playing much better and this organization knows that these are the games that they cannot afford to let slip of they have dreams of making the playoffs. I know that this is as "square" a play that you can have, but every once in a while the square play is the right play. Denarius Moore has been playing weel for Oakland as of late, but he will have to deal with Ike Taylor on Sunday. Taylor has already slowed down A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, and Torrey Smith to the tune of a total of 14 catches and 154 yards and no touchdowns. Take the small road favorite in this one as the Steelers win a close one and cover the line. The bye week will not work wonders for the Raiders as they are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following their bye.

3-Unit Play. Take #216 Kansas City (-7) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)
Kansas City escaped last weekend versus a desperate Houston team but will play much better versus Cleveland. The Houston game would have been an easy cover, but the Chiefs were stopped inside the Houston five yard line for no points and they were tackled at the one yard line on a fumble recovery. Jason Campbell will be starting for the Browns, which is an upgrade, but it won't be enough to keep this game close. This game will be a double-digit victory for Kansas City as it has a 24-10 type feel to it. Cleveland just doesn't have enough firepower to keep this game close in front of a difficult Kansas City home crowd. With the exception of their win at Minnesota the Browns scored six points in Baltimore, and only 13 points in Green Bay. Kansas City's defense is considerably better than the afore mentioned Packers and Ravens and they will have no trouble slowing down Campbell and the Browns. Take the home squad in this one.

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ALLEN EASTMAN

4-Unit Play. Take #220 New England (-6) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)
I am going with the Patriots in this game. This team is coming off a loss in New York last week. They will be angry and I don't see them losing two games in a row. The patriots are 8-3 ATS after a loss and 6-2 ATS the week after an ATS loss. The Patriots have won six straight against Miami and won 28-0 when they played last year in New England. The Patriots are 4-2 ATS in those last six wins. Miami has lost three straight games. They were blown out at New Orleans and that's a team that the Patriots recently beat. The Dolphins are just 2-5 AT Sin their last seven road games and I think that they will struggle against Tom Brady again this week. Take the Patriots.

5-Unit Play. Take #224 Oakland (+2.5) over Pittsburgh (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)
This is my Game of the Week.
I think that the Raiders are going to get the upset win. Pittsburgh is coming off a big win over Baltimore last week. That was a big win over their hated rival. Now they have to go on the road. They have to fly out to Oakland and the Steelers will have a letdown this week. The Raiders beat Pittsburgh 34-31 last year. They have won three of the last four meetings against the Steelers and this is one of the NFL's oldest AFC rivalries. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in this series going all the way back to 1994. Oakland is coming off a bye week. They will get the job done in this game and will bury the public with an outright win! Take the Raiders.

4-Unit Play. Take #227 Atlanta (+3) Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)
I am going with the Falcons in this game. They played well last week against Tampa Bay. This team has had to deal with a lot of injuries. But they went 13-3 last year. This is still a good team. Atlanta has a big advantage at the quarterback position. And there is talk that if Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer plays poorly he will be replaced with a backup. Atlanta beat the Cardinals last year 23-19 and I think that they are going to win this game as well. Atlanta is 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings. Arizona is coming off two tough divisional games. They lost to San Francisco and they lost at home to Seattle on Thursday night football. The Falcons are 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games against a team off back-to-back losses. Atlanta is 15-7-1 ATS against teams below .500 and I think they get the cash here.

3-Unit Play. Take #221 N.Y. Jets (+6.5) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)
I think that the Jets are an undervalued team. They beat the Patriots last week. They won at Atlanta on Monday Night Football three weeks ago. This team has gone 8-2 ATS going back to the preseason. The public does not think the Jets are a strong team. They have one of the best defenses in the AFC. New York has won four straight games against the Bengals and are 4-0 ATS in those games. Going back over the last 20 years the Jets are 9-1 in their last 10 games against the Bengals. This same Bengals team already lost to the Browns this year. They can be upset. I think that this is going to be a low scoring game and I think that this will be a close game. I think the Jets can win. But if they do not win I think that they can keep this game very close with their defense. I will take the points.

3-Unit Play. Take #211 Dallas (+3) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)
I am going with another underdog here this week! I like this Dallas team. The Dallas defense had a great game last week against the Eagles. I think they will keep it going against the Lions this week. Detroit is coming off a tough loss to the Bengals. The public was buried in that game. A lot of bettors are betting right back on the Lions in this game. I think the public will get buried again. Dallas has won back-to-back games. They are 6-1 ATS in their seven games this year and this is a strong team. Dallas has revenge for a loss to the Lions in 2011 when Detroit overcame a 27-3 deficit to win 34-30. I think that the Cowboys will get revenge and will get an outright win in this game. Take the points and go with Dallas.

**I DO NOT HAVE ANY NFL 411 PLAYS THIS WEEK. CHECK BACK NEXT WEEK FOR MORE**

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Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

The New Orleans Saints aren’t the type of team to let things slide.

The Saints, fueled by last year’s “Bounty Gate”-bogged season and suspension of head coach Sean Payton, seem destined to make a run at the Super Bowl – throwing it in the face of the NFL.

The next step in their revenge plot is a home win over the Buffalo Bills, who unfortunately walk into a buzz saw in Week 8. New Orleans has been fuming for two weeks after letting a win slip away against New England in Week 6 and has had a bye week to make sure it never, ever happens again.

Despite this motivation, oddsmakers are only giving the visiting Bills 12.5 points Sunday, keeping the high-powered Saints below two-touchdown favorites. Tight end Jimmy Graham is still questionable with a foot injury but Brees has plenty of other weapons to choose from, including emerging rookie WR Kenny Stills.

Sure, Buffalo has shown some fight in recent weeks and is coming off a win over Miami, but New Orleans is the class of the NFC and has the firepower and new-founded defensive prowess to turn this non-conference clash into a blowout.

The Saints aren’t taking it easy on the Bills in the “Big Easy” this weekend.

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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves
By JASON LOGAN

The NFL Week 8 odds have been on the board for a few days now, and early action has already dictated some major moves. We talk to Aron Black of bet365.com about the notable adjustments in our NFL mid-week line moves:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders – Open: +3, Move: +2.5

The Steelers seem to have it figured out, winning back-to-back games after starting the season 0-4. However, early action has faded Pittsburgh traveling across the country to Oakland in Week 8, pushing this spread below the key number of a field goal.

There are numerous injuries to the Steelers coming off a hard-fought game against rival Baltimore, but despite the move to 2.5, Steelers money is outnumbering Raiders action 2/1.

“It's a tough road game for Pittsburgh but they get the nod on odds as they have the more solid setup, and the QB edge,” Black tells Covers. “As long as Dick LeBeau runs the defense, they will always be tough to score against for a young quarterback like Pryor.”

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -9.5, Move: -7, Move: -8

The Cleveland Browns drew the early action against a Chiefs squad that isn’t as good as its undefeated record would lead you to believe, trimming the opening line as many as 2.5 points at some books. Then, Cleveland announced it would go with veteran Jason Campbell under center, tacking a point on the spread.

“The line looks a tad light for a 3-4 team that’s struggling and going to Arrowhead Stadium. However, this game more about defense than offense,” says Black. “Kansas City undefeated, but lighting up scoreboards on offense is not their forte. Shutting down other offenses and being effective enough on offense is. Cleveland may have their own struggles scoring, but the defense has been the bright spot.”

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -6.5, Move: -7

Are the Jets destined for a letdown after their controversial overtime win against New England? Some books have moved to a touchdown with this spread. Cincinnati stumbled a bit to start the year but has strung together three straight wins. However, books are wondering how much of a hole the injury to star CB Leon Hall will leave.

“Maybe the 6.5 looks good on New York for some,” says Black. “Action so far is split, but there are more siding with the points than the Cincy cover at about a 2/1 clip so far. The bulk of money is still to come and we will see Cincinnati action as the week goes on.”

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings – Open: +9.5, Move: +10, Move: +9

The Packers limp into this NFC North rivalry without many of Aaron Rodgers’ top targets. James Jones, Jermichael Finley, and Randall Cobb are all out with injuries.

The Vikings, on the other hand, looked terrible under new QB Josh Freeman in a loss to New York on Monday Night Football. Freeman reportedly suffered a head injury, leaving Christian Ponder as the likely Week 8 starter. Action on Green Bay is eclipsing money on Minnesota at a 3/1 rate.

“Green Bay has lost some very good receivers, but running back Eddie Lacy is giving Aaron Rodgers a solid run game the last three games to balance the attack,” says Black.

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NFL line watch: Keep tabs on Skins-Broncos spread, total
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Washington Redskins (+14) at Denver Broncos

This line opened at +14, but is dropping. There are some 13.5s on the board and 13s as well. If you're planning on getting down on Washington in this matchup, you may want to jump on board right now.

The reason this line is moving is obvious: The public finally saw the Broncos lose and that Peyton Manning is in fact a human. Denver's prolific offense has clearly helped in masking a suspect defense, but that veil has now unquestionably been lifted.

After dropping 45 on the Bears, bettors are likely to continue to hammer the visitors as the week wares on.

Spread to wait on

San Francisco 49ers (-17.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The 49ers arrived in England for their game with the Jaguars Monday. This lined opened at -17.5, but has already started to drop, with 17s and 16.5s making an appearance now as well. If you're planning on wagering on San Francisco this Sunday, you may want to wait a bit closer to kickoff.

The one area were the Jaguars have actually been decent is on the road, going 1-3 ATS away from friendly confines compared to 0-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd. Jacksonville has totaled 39 points in its last two road contests, at St. Louis and Denver respectively.

Travel across the pond is a factor that must always be taken into account. The bottom line though is that it's a detriment for both teams. If you're a situational handicapper, it's pretty obvious why both the public and the sharps are jumping on this sky-high number for the Jags.

This sets up as a classic lookahead/let down spot for the 49ers, who will enjoy their bye after lowly Jacksonville.

Total to watch

Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos (56.5)

If you're planning on playing the Under, consider grabbing the line now. As of writing, there are still some 56.5s on the board, but 55.5 predominates. At some point in the season, the Broncos will need their defense to step up and win a game for them. Here's the perfect opponent.

The Redskins are coming off a 45-41 shootout over the Bears last week but have gone 1-2 O/U on the road this year. Both the sharps and the public saw Manning struggle at times last week and must now finally believe the veteran is slowing down after his manic start to the season.

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DCI

Sunday, October 27, 2013
Dallas 26.8 at DETROIT 27.6, 1:00 pm ET
Cleveland 12.0 at KANSAS CITY 20.3, 1:00 pm ET
Miami 17.1 at NEW ENGLAND 26.3, 1:00 pm ET
Buffalo 20.8 at NEW ORLEANS 32.1, 1:00 pm ET
N.Y. Giants 23.5 at PHILADELPHIA 25.9, 1:00 pm ET
San Francisco 35.7 at JACKSONVILLE 8.4, 1:00 pm ET
Pittsburgh 19.5 at OAKLAND 15.0, 4:05 pm ET
N.Y. Jets 12.4 at CINCINNATI 25.3, 4:05 pm ET
Washington 28.6 at DENVER 44.1, 4:25 pm ET
Atlanta 22.1 at ARIZONA 24.8, 4:25 pm ET
Green Bay 33.8 at MINNESOTA 17.4, 8:30 pm ET

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Today's NFL Picks

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 27 Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (10/23)

Game 209-210: San Francisco at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 133.619; Jacksonville 119.470 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 14; 45 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 17; 40 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+17); Over

Game 211-212: Dallas at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 136.883; Detroit 134.751 Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2; 55 Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 51 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over

Game 213-214: NY Giants at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 120.995; Philadelphia 132.986 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 12; 47 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-5 1/2); Under

Game 215-216: Cleveland at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 134.111; Kansas City 138.816 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 35 Vegas Line: Kansas City by 7 1/2; 39 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+7 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Buffalo at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.385; New Orleans 143.703 Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 15 1/2; 52 Vegas Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 48 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-11 1/2); Over

Game 219-220: Miami at New England (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 130.863; New England 141.125 Dunkel Line: New England by 10 1/2; 41 Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2); Under

Game 221-222: NY Jets at Cincinnati (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 129.905; Cincinnati 133.394 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 41 Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+6 1/2); Over

Game 223-224: Pittsburgh at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.150; Oakland 126.352 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 37 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 40 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2); Under

Game 225-226: Washington at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.807; Denver 147.553 Dunkel Line: Denver by 20 1/2; 62 Vegas Line: Denver by 12 1/2; 58 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Denver (-12 1/2); Over

Game 227-228: Atlanta at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 132.546; Arizona 130.773 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 41 Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 45 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Under

Game 229-230: Green Bay at Minnesota (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.021; Minnesota 130.329 Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 50 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 9; 47 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+9); Over

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Football Jesus text : Lions in NFL Sunday. 18-7-1 so far this season

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BURNS.. lions, eagles

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Washington at Denver (Sunday 10/27 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 59.5 (-110) at Sportsbook.com

There is no question that the Denver Broncos are an efficient offensive team, but what Peyton manning was doing was simply unsustainable. He has cooled off a bit, and teams are learning from film what the Broncos are doing and are making some adjustments. Manning took a lot of big hits last week, and missed practice on Wednesday. The ball simply didn't look good coming out against Indianapolis. The Colts showed a recipe for disrupting Manning and you can be sure the rest of the league took notice. Washington does get good pressure, so I think they can hurry Manning enough to take a couple of drives away from him. Washington is going to try and run the ball here to try to shorten the game and keep the Broncos offense on the sidelines. And, running the ball is what Washington does well (4th in the league in rushing yards per game and 2nd in yards per carry). But, Denver has done well against the run, so it will be interesting to see this one play out. Washington is 8-2 to the UNDER in their last 10 vs. a winning home team. They are also 9-2 UNDER the past couple of seasons when facing great offensive teams (those like Denver averaging 5.7+ yards per play). And, since the arrival of Mike Shanahan, the Redskins are a perfect 8-0 UNDER on the road vs. winning teams. These expected shootouts, much like Philly and Dallas last week, often don't pan out. Take the UNDER.

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BeatYourBookie Football Plays

Sunday

10* Play Kansas City -8 over Cleveland (NFL TOP PLAY)
1:00 PM EST

Cleveland is 1-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in their last game
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS when playing as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points


10* Play Detroit -3 over Dallas (NFL TOP PLAY)
1:00 PM EST

Dallas is 1-6 ATS coming off two or more UNDER the totals
Dallas is 1-6 ATS coming off a road win in their last game


10* Play Pittsburgh -2 over Oakland (NFL TOP PLAY)
4:00 PM EST

Oakland is 36-67 ATS when the line posted is between +3 to -3
Oakland is 15-30 ATS when playing as a home underdog of 7 points or less


10* Play Green Bay -9 over Minnesota (NFL TOP PLAY)
8:30 PM EST

Green Bay is 12-2 ATS vs. division opponents the last three seasons
Green Bay is 13-2 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in their last four games