10-18-13

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Gold Medal Club

#308 Louisville -12 (Friday 8pm E)

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Dunkel Index

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18
Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (10/16) Game 307-308: Central Florida at Louisville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 97.519; Louisville 103.859
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 6 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Louisville by 13; 53
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+13); Over

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Prediction Machine
Louisville ATS 57.4

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LA Syndicate

Central Florida +13

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Undefeated No. 8 Louisville hosts UCF Friday night
by Freddy Wander

Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Louisville -12, Total: 53

No. 8 Louisville attempts to stay undefeated behind the arm of Heisman hopeful QB Teddy Bridgewater as UCF looks for a huge upset in this American Athletic Conference matchup.

Bridgewater and the Cardinals have been outstanding this season, with their closest game coming last week against Rutgers where they had only a touchdown lead late in the fourth quarter, eventually winning 24-10. UCF has looked strong lately as well, beating Penn State 34-31 on the road three weeks ago and then nearly pulling off an upset against South Carolina the next week in a 28-25 loss. UCF also pulled off an unusual win in Memphis this past week, scoring two touchdowns (both fumble recoveries) in nine seconds late in the fourth quarter en route to a 24-17 victory. The Knights have been exceptional on the road in their past eight games (6-2 SU) and are 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) away from home this season. But they will have the task of facing a Louisville team that has won 10 of its past 11 games at home SU and has outscored its opponents by 41.2 PPG on average this season in Louisville. This meeting will be the first between these two programs.

UCF has looked great this year and nearly pulled off a huge upset earlier in the season in its only loss against South Carolina, losing 28-25, but did not surrender a single point to the Gamecocks in the first half. QB Blake Bortles has enjoyed another strong season with 1,334 passing yards, nine touchdowns and only three interceptions. All three of Bortles' interceptions came in the games against tough opponents, Penn State and South Carolina. The duo of WR Breshad Perriman (397 rec. yards, 1 TD) and WR Rannell Hall (373 rec. yards, 3 TD) has combined to catch 39 of the 95 receptions (41%) for the team. Helping the passing game out has been the ever-consistent HB Storm Johnson. He has carried between 16 and 20 carries in each of the five games and has totaled 455 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) with seven touchdowns. The Knights defense is what has been really impressive this season, only allowing 16.6 points per game (11th in the nation) and much of their success can be attributed to forcing 12 turnovers against their opponents, including eight over the past two games.

Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater has done everything that was expected of him this season, as he has thrown for 1,812 yards, 18 touchdowns and only two interceptions, leading the Louisville pass attack to 14th-best in the nation. Star WR Devonte Parker (375 rec. yards, 6 TD) is listed as questionable for this game with a shoulder injury that forced him to watch from the sidelines against Rutgers. WR Damian Copeland has filled in nicely as the number one receiving option for Bridgewater, and had eight receptions for 115 yards in Parker's absence last week. Also picking up some of the offensive slack last week was HB Senorise Perry, who ran for 104 yards on 13 carries (8.0 YPC) and one touchdown; bringing his season numbers to 402 yards on 67 carries (6.0 YPC) with five touchdowns. On the defensive side of the ball, look for LB Preston Brown to lead the nation's second-ranked rushing defense (68.3 rush YPG allowed) and fifth-ranked pass defense (161.2 pass YPG allowed). The Louisville defense has not allowed more than 13 points in any of its six games this year, and has given up the least amount of points per game in the nation (7.3 PPG).

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THE GOLD SHEET

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
★★★*Ucf 27 - LOUISVILLE 26—Even if Teddy Bridgewater’s favorite target,
WR DeVante Parker, returns from shoulder injury, DDs worth considering with
dangerous and rested UCF, which is 18-10 as an underdog since 2007 (2-0 TY).
The Knights’ nicely-balanced attack, directed by deep-throwing 6-5 jr.
triggerman Blake Bortles (64.8%, 9 TDs, 3 ints.), gives the stifling Card defense
(7 ppg) its toughest test to date. And George O’Leary’s disciplined, nearly
mistake-free UCF bunch (only 19 giveaways in last 19 games) has only two
losses by more than 10 pts. since 2010! TV—ESPN2

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PayneInsider

CFB
4x UCF +11

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STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
UCF vs louisville (-10½)
Game Breakdown: Louisville has won eight in a row SU, but the Cardinals failed to cover in their two AAC games. The Cards scored a season-low 24 points in last week’s win over Rutgers, and could once again be without top WR DeVante Parker (shoulder).
UCF has been solid all year, beating Penn State and nearly upsetting South Carolina. They had to mount a miracle comeback to win at Memphis last week, scoring twice in the last 2:05 (first on an offensive fumble recovery, then on a defensive fumble recovery) in a 24-17 win.

• Charlie Strong is 11-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders as coach of LOUISVILLE.
• George O’Leary is 10-1 OVER vs. excellent ball control teams, 32+ possession minutes/game as coach of UCF.
• George O’Leary is 14-4 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as coach of UCF.

STATFOX FORECASTER
UCF 21

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UCF at Louisville: What bettors need to know

Central Florida Knights at Louisville Cardinals (-12, 53)

Louisville didn’t silence the critics of its schedule with a difficult home win in its most recent performance, but will attempt to remain among the 14 unbeaten teams in FBS on Friday when it hosts Central Florida. The sixth-ranked Cardinals are coming off a 24-10 victory against Rutgers, one of the two teams they have faced with a winning record. Louisville’s opponents have combined to go 13-23, while none of the six remaining teams left on the schedule are ranked in the Top 25.

Cardinals quarterback Teddy Bridgewater had an off-day by his lofty standards last Thursday, committing two turnovers while leading the offense to its lowest point total of the season. He may not catch much of a break against the Knights, who allow 16.6 points per game – good for the second-best mark in the American Athletic Conference. Central Florida has its own prolific signal-caller in Blake Bortles, who ranks second in the conference behind Bridgewater in passing efficiency (160.4).

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Louisville opened as a 10.5-point fave and is now -12. The total is currently 53.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies.

ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (4-1, 1-0 AAC): While they only have one win against a ranked team in school history, the Knights have established themselves as a quality foe (34-31 win at Penn State, 28-25 home loss against South Carolina). Although Central Florida ranks fourth in the conference in passing offense, wide receivers Breshad Perriman (fourth) and Rannell Hall (eighth) are among the top 10 in receiving yards. Perriman and Hall have combined for five of the team’s six 100-yard receiving efforts, the school’s most since 2006.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (6-0, 2-0): With the Cardinals’ vaunted offense unable to score at least 30 points for the first time this season, the defense collected four interceptions (most in a game since 2000), eight sacks and held Rutgers to 12 yards rushing. Louisville has allowed 12 yards rushing or fewer two times over the last three games and a total of 63 yards on the ground over that same stretch. The Cardinals are yielding an FBS-low 7.3 points and 229.5 total yards per game, good for second in FBS.

TRENDS:

* Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Under is 19-7 in Cardinals last 26 games in October.
* Cardinals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Friday games.
* Under is 5-1 in Knights last six games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Knights (tied for sixth, plus-1.4) and Cardinals (tied for eighth, plus-1.33) each rank in the top 10 in the FBS in turnover margin.

2. Central Florida won its first three road contests for the first time in school history.

3. Louisville WRs DeVante Parker (shoulder) – the team’s top receiver who missed the Rutgers game – and Kai De La Cruz (groin) will be game-time decisions.

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Dodgers at Cardinals: What bettors need to know

Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals (+118, 5.5)

St. Louis leads the the series 3-2.

With last year's stunning National League Championship Series loss a not-so-distant memory, the St. Louis Cardinals try to close out the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 6 on Friday night. It won't be an easy task for St. Louis, which must face Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw as it attempts to avoid squandering a 3-1 lead in the NLCS for the second straight year. Rookie Michael Wacha will oppose Kershaw in a rematch of Game 2, won by the Cardinals 1-0.

Offense had been at a premium throughout the series until the Dodgers busted out and swatted four homers - two by Adrian Gonzalez - to stave off elimination with a 6-4 victory in Game 5. St. Louis failed to take advantage of some early scoring opportunities on Wednesday but its bats are starting to come around, producing 10 hits after managing a total of 12 in the previous three games. Cardinals left fielder Matt Holliday is 5-for-8 with a homer and three RBIs in the last two games.

TV: 8:37 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s. There is a 30 percent chance of showers in the forecast.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (0-1, 0.00) vs. RH Michael Wacha (1-0, 0.00)

Kershaw was saddled with the loss in Game 2 despite allowing an unearned run on only two hits in his six-inning stint. In three starts this postseason, the likely NL Cy Young Award winner has yielded four runs - one earned - and eight hits while striking out 23 in 19 innings. "Our focus for Game 6 is to score runs for Kershaw and let him do his thing," Gonzalez said. As well as he pitched in Game 2, Kershaw has lost all three starts to St. Louis this season.

Wacha has pitched with the poise of a veteran rather than the rookie who entered the playoffs with nine regular-season starts. He struck out eight in 6 2/3 scoreless innings to outduel Kershaw in Game 2 and was dominant in his NL Division Series start, allowing one run and one hit with nine strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings. Wacha's last three outings have been off the charts - the 22-year-old has yielded one run on seven hits while striking out 26 in 22 2/3 innings.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-2-1 in Kershaw's last nine starts vs. Cardinals.
* Dodgers are 0-4 in Kershaw's last four starts vs. Cardinals.
* Cardinals are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

UMP TRENDS - Greg Gibson:

* Cardinals are 1-5 in their last six games with Gibson behind home plate.
* Under is 8-3 in Gibson's last 11 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
* Home team is 17-5 in Gibson's last 22 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Dodgers SS Hanley Ramirez (ribs) has made early exits in the last two games but will be in the starting lineup Friday.

2. Holliday is 10-for-35 with 10 walks lifetime against Kershaw.

3. The Dodgers have lost six straight postseason series when facing elimination at any point, dating to the 1995 NLDS.

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Stampeders at Eskimos: What bettors need to know

Calgary Stampeders at Edmonton Eskimos (+5.5, 53)

The Calgary Stampeders lead the West Division by four points as they move closer to securing a first-round playoff bye with the division title. On Friday, Calgary visits the struggling Edmonton Eskimos, who are still looking for their first divisional victory. The Stampeders have won three straight, while Edmonton is mired in a three-game losing skid.

Calgary veteran quarterback Kevin Glenn is posting the most efficient season of his 13-year CFL career, with a career-high completion percentage of 67.3 and a passer rating of 102. Starting pivot Drew Tate is almost ready to return full-time for the Stampeders, but Glenn is making it difficult for the team to ignore what he’s done in Tate’s absence. Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly has thrown for an impressive 3,589 yards despite being sacked a division-high 48 times, making his case to remain the Eskimos starter beyond this lost season.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (12-3): Running back Jon Cornish already has a career-best 1,545 rushing yards with three games remaining. Kick returner Clifton Smith had a massive debut for Calgary last week against the BC Lions, totaling 188 return yards and a receiving touchdown. Defensive linemen Cordarro Law and Charleston Hughes have 25 sacks combined - more than half the team total of 49.

ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (3-12): Slotback Adarius Bowman has 27 catches for 357 yards and two touchdowns since returning from a knee injury Sept. 6. Linebacker JC Sherritt remains out indefinitely with a fractured thumb, which he re-injured two weeks ago against the Montreal Alouettes. Edmonton’s offense is fairly one-dimensional, with Reilly leading the team in rushing yards with 581 - 56 more than running back Hugh Charles.

TRENDS:

* Stampeders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Edmonton.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Stampeders are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
* Eskimos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Calgary is second in the league with 49 sacks.

2. The Eskimos have allowed a league-worst 135.1 rushing yards per game.

3. Edmonton SB Fred Stamps has a league-leading 1,127 receiving yards.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Blues won five of their first six games.
-- Anaheim won its last five games, allowing eight goals. Coyotes won three of last four.

Cold teams
-- Jets lost four of their last five games.

Series records
-- Blues won last three games with Winnipeg, allowing seven goals.
-- Coyotes won four of their last five games with Anaheim.

Totals
-- Last five Winnipeg games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Anaheim games stayed under total.

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MLB

Dodgers-Cardinals
Kershaw is 3-1, 1.13 in his last five starts, with three of last four going over the total. He is 0-2, 3.32 in three starts against St Louis this season.

Wacha won his last three starts, allowing one run, seven hits in 22.2 IP; four of his last five starts stayed under the total. He blanked LA for 6.2 IP on five hits earlier in series, his only start against the Dodgers.

Dodgers are 6-6 against St Louis this year, with eight of 12 games going under the total. LA is 5-4 in playoffs but 11-14 in last 25 games overall; four of five games in this series stayed under the total.

Cardinals scored 12 runs in this series, still lead 3-2; they've won 16 of last 22 games, winning 11 of last 12 home games- four of their last five games stayed under the total. St Louis was 19-23 vs lefty starters during regular season.

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Baseball Crusher
Los Angeles Dodgers -127 over St. Louis Cardinals
(System Record: 93-8, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 93-102-2

Football Crusher
Central Florida +14.5 over Louisville
(System Record: 25-2, won last game)
Overall Record: 25-20

Hockey Crusher
St Louis Blues -121 over Winnipeg Jets
(System Record: 5-0, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 5-3

Soccer Crusher
Argentinos Juniors + Estudiantes LP UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 470-17, won last game)
Overall Record: 470-405-65