9-15-13

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Reaction or Overreaction? Pro handicappers weigh NFL Week 1 results

The most common mistake a NFL bettor can make is overreacting to Week 1 outcomes.

While Week 1 tells us a lot about where teams are headed, it’s a snapshot of the big picture and banking on opening day results when wagering on Week 2 can get the season started on the wrong foot.

We asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest handicappers what they saw in Week 1, and what bettors should and shouldn’t react to.

REACT TO…

Bruce Marshall – “The New Orleans Saints. If the Saints were going to re-emerge as the team to beat in the NFC South, they simply had to beat Atlanta in the opener. Mission accomplished. Better yet, they rallied from 10-0 down and needed their defense to hold on for the win. The road to the NFC South title now runs through the Superdome, where the Sean Payton Saints have now won and covered 10 in a row.”

Teddy Covers – “Pittsburgh catching 6.5 next Monday Night. The Steelers lost a lot of defensive leadership this past offseason and their top two pass catchers from last year are hurt (Heath Miller) or gone (Mike Wallace). Pittsburgh had won at least three preseason games in every previous season under Mike Tomlin. This year, they went 0-4. The opening day loss of Maurkice Pouncey is as impactful an injury as we've seen all year. Pittsburgh is in serious trouble.”

Jesse Schule – "Patriot fans should be concerned about New England's offense. Tom Brady turned the ball over twice and he was completing just 50 percent of his passes until late in the fourth quarter. Shane Vereen had a big day running the ball but a broken wrist will keep him out for the next several weeks."

Bryan Power – "I would point toward the Keystone State. I think the Eagles and Chip Kelly's offense are going to be even better than expected while the Steelers appear to be in serious trouble."

Steve Merril – “The New York Jets. The Jets were miserable offensively last year, but it does look like rookie QB Geno Smith might give them a spark offensively this season. He led them to a late-drive victory and played well overall.”

Sean Murphy – “Bettors should react to bad defensive performances. At this early stage of the season, the defenses should be ahead of the offenses, but that certainly wasn't the case for some teams in Week 1. I think it's easier to show offensive improvement from Week 1 to Week 2 than it is to turn things around defensively.”

DON’T OVERREACT TO…

Doc’s Sports – “I would not overact to the loss by the Green Bay Packers against San Francisco. I actually felt the Packers offensive line played outstanding against one of the best defenses in the league. If not for a couple of bad calls, Green Bay would have earned the victory in a hostile environment. I expect the Packers to bounce back well at home next week, as they still have the best coach/quarterback combination in the league.”

Art Aronson – “Don't overreact to how well the Broncos and Chiefs looked. The biggest mistake that bettors can make going into Week 2 is overreacting to how well or poorly a team did in Week 1. Be mindful of the situation and take a good long look at the line before laying down your wager.”

Matt Fargo – “Do not overreact to the amount of low-scoring games in Week 1. The under went 8-4-1 Sunday but that doesn’t mean that offenses won't step it back up in the coming weeks. If anything, these low-scoring games will present some value in Week 2, as we have seen some lower than expected totals come out for Week 2. We can definitely use this to our advantage as the bounce angle is always a very good one when it comes to attacking totals on a week-to-week basis.”

Jesse Schule – "Don't overreact to Adrian Peterson's big day, scoring three touchdowns against the Lions. After breaking away for a 78-yard TD run in the first quarter, he averaged less than two yards per carry from then on and the Vikings' running game was shut down for the rest of the game."

Steve Merril – “The Giants loss. New York outgained the Cowboys by 147 total yards, but lost 36-31 because of six turnovers. This is unlikely to happen going forward and New York should still be the team to beat in the NFC East this season.”

Bruce Marshall – “Oakland and Terrelle Pryor. It looks as if Pryor might provide a long-overdue spark for the Raiders offense. But NFL defenses adjust quickly to new flavors like Pryor, and the aerial component of his game still needs refinement. Expect Pryor to be forced to deal from the pocket more often in upcoming weeks, as opponents pay closer attention to his escape lanes.”

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Tracking NFL Week 2's biggest impact injuries

Week 1 provided plenty of thrills and surprises - along with the requisite spate of significant injuries. Several teams will head into the second week of action with injury concerns at key positions.

Here is a look at the most important injuries to watch heading into Week 2:

Dez Bryant, WR, and Morris Claiborne, CB, Dallas Cowboys

Bryant, one of the top receivers in football, suffered a mild-foot sprain in the season opener against the New York Giants and may be limited for Sunday's game against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Cowboys will likely limit him in practice to keep him as fresh as possible. Terrance Williams will likely see a significant increase in snaps if Bryant sits or is limited in the game. Owner Jerry Jones says the team will keep an eye on Claiborne, who suffered a dislocated shoulder in the win. Orlando Scandrick or B.W. Webb would likely start in his place.

Early Tuesday odds had the Cowboys as two to 2.5-point underdogs on the road, but it has since risen to three. The O/U is set at 46.5.

Danny Amendola, WR, and Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots

The Patriots offense looked uneven in its season-opening victory over Buffalo, and will now be without two more weapons. Amendola suffered a groin injury in Sunday's victory and will be limited all week heading into a likely game-time decision for Thursday's tilt with the New York Jets. Julian Edelman will take Amendola's place in the slot if he can't go. Vereen had a strong opener but suffered a wrist injury that required surgery, knocking him out of action until Week 11 at the earliest. Vereen's injury moves LaGarrette Blount into second spot on the depth chart behind Stevan Ridley.

Despite the losses, New England remains a strong 12-point favorite against the visiting Jets. The O/U stands at 44.

Maurkice Pouncey, C, and Shaun Suisham, K, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pouncey suffered a torn right ACL and MCL in the season opener against Tennessee, effectively ending his season. The Steelers will likely proceed with a combination Fernando Velasco and Kelvin Beachum, a significant downgrade at the position. Suisham suffered a hamstring injury - not that he had much work in the 16-9 loss - and will likely be out until Week 4. The Steelers signed 35-year-old Shayne Graham to take Suisham's place. The Steelers may be hard-pressed to score many TDs against a stout Cincinnati defense, leaving them to turn to Graham's untested foot.

The line has remained steady, with Pittsburgh listed as a seven-point underdog in Ohio. The O/U is set at 40.5.

Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Gabbert may have been the luckiest Jaguars player Sunday, leaving early after suffering a hand laceration in a 28-2 drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs. The wound required 15 stitches to close and head coach Gus Bradley says that Gabbert will "definitely" not be on the field for Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders. Chad Henne will start under center, which may actually mean good things for a Jacksonville offense that sputtered under Gabbert's direction.

The Jaguars opened as 4-point underdogs but the line has since risen to six. The O/U has dropped from 41 to 39.5.

Jacoby Jones, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback Joe Flacco is running out of viable receiving targets. Jones caught three passes for 24 yards before suffering a sprained MCL against the Denver Broncos Thursday. He'll be sidelined for the next four to six weeks, leaving Flacco with Torrey Smith and rookie Marlon Brown as his top two options. Brown had a strong game in defeat, but struggled at times with separation against the Broncos.

Baltimore enters as a 6.5-point favorite at home to Cleveland. The O/U has also held at 43.5.

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Sixth Sense

SF +3

3-1 ytd record

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Steve Fezzik

NFL Week 2 Earlybird

MIAMI +3

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GoodFella

NFL Week 2

(2*) "NFL 7 pt Teaser"

#206 ATLANTA FALCONS pk' to #201 MIAMI DOLPHINS +10

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The Philly Godfather

• NFL [210] KC CHIEFS -1-110 100:

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Football Jesus Free Pick : Seahawks

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NFL betting Week 2 preview: Hot bets and moving odds
By SPORTS INTERACTION

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 2’s NFL action.

For veteran bettors, Week 1 probably went just as expected. There were some big lines on the board and the underdogs held their own. Four outright underdogs won straight up and dogs finished 8-7-1 overall. Week 2’s lines have come down a bit across the Sports Interaction board so let’s dig in.

All odds current as of noon ET, Sept. 12.

Key numbers

Week 2’s board features a ton of field goal and touchdown lines. Unlike last week, where the lines were all over the place, this time we have four pointspreads of seven points and three pointspreads of three points. New England is the big favorite at -11 at home to the New York Jets Thursday and Arizona is the slightest favorite at -1.5 at home to the Detroit Lions.

Patriot games

Last week, the New England Patriots were big favorites but couldn’t cover in a tight win over Buffalo. They opened as 13-point favorites in Week 2 against the Jets, but that line is dropping steadily as the club works on a short week with injury concerns. Shane Vereen is out for a while and Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are very, very doubtful. When the Pats were 12.5-point favorites, 70 percent of Sports Interaction’s tickets were coming in on New England, but that’s changed as the game nears. Now as New England sits as an 11-point favorite, just 56 percent of the action is coming in on the Pats.

More odds on the move

The Baltimore Ravens opened as 6.5-point favorites at home to Cleveland but it looks as though the betting public is a bit concerned after that spanking they took from Denver. The Ravens have moved from -6.5 to -6.

It’s hard to get a read on the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Oakland Raiders. Are the Jags really as bad as they showed in last week’s blowout loss? Are the Raiders better than expected? These are questions bettors are asking themselves as this line bounces between Oakland -6 and -5.5. Don’t be surprised if this line flutters right up until kickoff.

Talking totals

If you can’t guess the two 50-plus totals on the board this week, you haven’t done your homework. The Philadelphia Eagles blazed through their win over Washington last week only to hear coach Chip Kelly say their no-huddle wasn’t fast enough. Philly is a 9.5-point favorite hosting San Diego and oddsmakers have a 55-point total posted. If Kelly has it his way, over bettors might be cashing their tickets by halftime.

Meanwhile, after throwing seven touchdowns last week, Peyton Manning and his Broncos see another 55-point total when they visit Eli and the Giants. Denver is a 4.5-point favorite. Dating back to last year, the over has gone 4-0-1 in Denver’s last five games.

Who’s hot, who’s not

There is a lot of weird stuff going on with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Quarterback Josh Freeman was stripped of his captaincy before the season began and missed the team photo, leading to a players-only meeting in Week 1. This week the Bucs host the Saints as 3.5-point underdogs and 94 percent of the action is coming in on New Orleans.

Baltimore bettors expect the defending champs to bounce back in a big way. The Ravens are seeing 93 percent of the action as 6-point favorites against Cleveland.

After surviving a scare in Week 1, the public is all over the Colts to cover the field goal spread as they host the Miami Dolphins. Right now, just 11 percent of bettors are siding with Miami.

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 2

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 2:

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 55)

Chargers’ cross-country trip vs. Eagles’ frantic pace

Both of these teams are playing on a short week, having headlined the Monday doubleheader. But only one – San Diego – has to fly coast to coast in Week 2. The Chargers gassed out against the Texans in Week 1, giving up 24 points in the second half including 17 in the fourth quarter, and now face Chip Kelly’s rapid-fire attack.

New San Diego head coach Mike McCoy is trying to instill a similar plan of attack in his team this season, looking to push the tempo. That may be the Bolts’ worst enemy in Philadelphia. Getting into a track meet with the Eagles on a short week while traveling cross-country could leave little in the tank for the Chargers – again - come the fourth quarter.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5)

Cowboys’ rejuvenated front seven vs. Chiefs’ conservative attack

Dallas’ new 4-3 defense looked like it had been playing that scheme for years against the Giants Sunday night, picking off three passes and forcing three lost fumbles. Those six takeaways are a huge contrast to last season. The pass rush also looked good, getting to Eli Manning three times. The Cowboys' only weakness was to the big play, allowing New York to connect on long third-down conversions and strike for a 70-yard TD pass before the half.

Dallas defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin may not have to worry as much about the long bomb this week. The Chiefs offense dinked-and-dumped its way to 28 points versus Jacksonville Sunday, averaging only five yards per pass and topping out on a 26-yard completion from QB Alex Smith. Kansas City’s new head coach Andy Reid knows the Cowboys well, but not this revamped defense that is wreaking havoc between the chains.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 47)

Saints’ downfield weapons vs. Bucs’ poor pass D and rusty Revis

Tampa Bay ranked last versus the pass in 2012 and was supposed to have plugged those holes with the addition of CB Darrelle Revis. However, Revis was a step behind in his first NFL game since last fall and the Bucs allowed Jets rookie QB Geno Smith to complete over 63 percent of his passes and connect for two TDs.

Enter Drew Brees, who has been the top gunslinger in the NFL the past five seasons. He put up 357 yards through the air and two touchdowns in a win over Atlanta, and went for 307 yards and four TDs in a 41-0 ass-waxing of Tampa Bay last season. Revis can only cover one guy. Brees has more than enough weapons to choose from, with six players targeted four or more times in Week 1.

Denver Broncos at New York Giants (+4.5, 55)

Broncos’ punishing pace vs. Giants’ dinged-up defense

The New York defense limps back home after a tough loss in Dallas Sunday night. The Giants have a laundry list of ailments, including CB Prince Amukamara, LB Dan Connor, and DE Jason Pierre-Paul, who obviously wasn’t 100 percent after offseason back surgery. Those injuries will be exploited even more when Peyton Manning puts his offensive pedal to the metal.

The Broncos’ no-huddle attack could strand those hobbled defenders on the field Sunday. They ran 68 plays during the Thursday’s night blowout over the Ravens and boasted the third-fastest pace in the NFL last year. Not only that, New York’s lack of a running game will have the Giants struggling to control the clock. And winning the time of possession battle is key when trying to slow down Manning. If he’s not on the field, he can’t hurt you. Expect to see more of one brother than the other in “The Manning Bowl”.

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Colin Cowherd Blazin' 5:

az +1.5
stl +6.5
nyg +4.5
chi -6
phil -7.5

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The Winners Circle

Sunday Football Plays

10* Play New Orleans -3 over Tampa Bay (TOP NFL PLAY) 4:30 PM EST

Tampa Bay has lost 16 of the last 23 games when playing as an underdog and they have also lost 15 of the last 22 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points. Tampa Bay has lost 17 of the last 24 games vs. NFC Conference Opponents and they have lost 9 of the last 11 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game.


10* Play Seattle -3 over San Francisco (TOP NFL PLAY) 8:30 PM EST

Seattle has covered the spread in 11 consecutive games after gaining an average of 6 yards or more a play in their last game and they have also covered the spread in 5 consecutive home games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points. Seattle has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games coming off a win by six points or less and they only allowed 7 points a game on defense last week.



5* Play Green Bay -7 over Washington (BONUS NFL PLAY)
5* Play Houston -9.5 over Tennessee (BONUS NFL PLAY)

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Monday Football Play

10* Play Cincinnati -6.5 over Pittsburgh (TOP NFL PLAY) 8:30 PM EST

Pittsburgh has lost 12 of the last 17 road games against the spread and they have also lost 11 of the last 16 games against the spread when the total posted is between 35.5 and 42 points. Pittsburg has lost 17 of the last 25 games against the spread vs. AFC Conference Opponents and they have lost 10 of the last 14 games against the spread coming off a home game.

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Cleveland at Baltimore (Sunday 9/15 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 43.5 (-105) at 5dimes

The defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens will try to get some things fixed after getting torched for seven TDs by Peyton Manning in their opener. But is it fixable? Baltimore lost a lot of talent and leadership from a defense that has mostly dominated in recent years. Gone are the emotional and statistical leaders from this defense. The Ravens opened up the playbook for Joe Flacco at the end of last season and it delivered a Super Bowl. As a result, they gave Joe Flacco a big contract, and the offense is now the focal point of this team. Baltimore will get RT Michael Oher back for this game, which will only assist the running game. Cleveland simply made too many mistakes against Miami, got behind and was forced to the air, and that did not work out so well. Baltimore simply doesn't have the ability to get pressure in the same way Miami did a week ago, and I think Brandon Weeden will have a lot more time, and he will also be able to get Trent Richardson more involved in the running game early. The Ravens went for 27 points and almost 400 yards on the road last week vs. at least as good of a defense as they will face at home this week. The Ravens have opened things up after a loss, where they are 12-4 to the OVER in their last 16. Look for Joe Flacco behind a raucous crowd to go nuts here. Make the play on the OVER.

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NFL

Week 2

Chargers (0-1) @ Eagles (1-0)—Both teams played Monday, but Chargers blew 28-7 lead and lost at home; Iggles are off road divisional win at Washington, when they ran ball for 263 yards and had 53 offensive plays, just in first half. San Diego ran 51 plays in the whole game Monday. Since ’08, Chargers are 12-8-1 as road dogs; they’ve lost three of four visits here, losing by 16-10-3, with only win in ’95, as home teams won eight of last nine series games. Philly defense forced five 3/outs vs offense with rusty QB who hadn’t played in preseason, which helped them get a 19-yard advantage in average field position, a huge edge. Eagles are 6-12 as home favorites last three years, 1-6 as non-divisional HF last two years- they were 0-8 vs spread at home LY, when it was obvious Reid wasn’t coming back as HC. Eagles covered once in last five games as a favorite in their home opener.

Browns (0-1) @ Ravens (0-1)—Baltimore won last ten series games, with seven of 10 wins by 10+ points; Browns are 3-11 here, losing last five, with three of those five by 7 or less points. Ravens had three extra days to prepare after giving up 445 passing yards and seven TDs in Thursday night opener; they’ve won last eight home openers (6-2 vs spread), with over 6-1-1 in those eight games. Over is 9-3 in Browns’ last 12 road openers. Baltimore is 4-9-1 as divisional home favorite under Harbaugh, who is replacing defensive leaders Lewis/Reed off LY’s Super Bowl champs. Browns threw 53 passes last week, ran it only 13 times in 23-10 loss where they outgained Miami; would expect both sides to try and run more here, since Flacco threw 63 passes last week. Since ’07, Cleveland is 9-6-1 as a divisional road dog. Over last decade, teams that lost Thursday night opener are xx-xx in their Week 2 games.

Titans (1-0) @ Texans (1-0)—Houston rallied from down 28-7 to win at San Diego late Monday night, using no-huddle offense and defensive TD by Cushing to forge unlikely comeback; Texans won six of last eight series games, winning 38-24/24-10 LY, just their second series sweep in last 11 years. Titans are 2-3 in last five visits to their old home (Titans used to be Houston Oilers); five of their last seven visits here were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Texans won last three home openers by 10-27-20 points; six of their last eight home openers stayed under total. Titans held Pitt to 32 yards rushing, forced five 3/outs on ten drives last week and had whopping 21-yard edge in average field position- they’re 7-6 as a road dog under Munchak. Look for Texans to get Foster more involved in running game; Tate played lot down stretch Monday. Houston is 6-1 as divisional home favorite last three years.

Dolphins (1-0) @ Colts (1-0)— Indy was outgained by 98 yards last week- they had trouble with mobile QB Pryor, who had most of Oakland’s 171 rushing yards, but Dolphins don’t have QB like Pryor. Last week was Miami’s first cover in last five road games; they ran ball for only 20 yards, but since 2004, Dolphins are 28-12-2 as non-divisional road dogs. Indy won last four series games, but all four were decided by six or less points. Dolphins lost last two visits here 27-22/23-20; LY, they beat Miami 23-20 (+1.5), with 419 passing yards, outgaining Fish by 151 yards. Colts covered eight of last 11 home games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites with Luck at QB. Miami was very good on third down last week, converting 8-16 chances, holding Browns to 1-14, but they had only one play of 20+ yards- league average was 3.97 per team. Dolphins were +2 in turnovers last week, good news after being -36 over last four years.

Panthers (0-1) @ Bills (0-1)—Since 2007, Carolina is surprisingly good 7-2 as road favorite; they’re 5-3 vs spread vs AFC teams under Rivera. Buffalo covered four of last six games as home dog; in last eight years, they’re 11-18-3 in last 32 games vs NFC teams. Panthers outrushed Seattle 124-70 last week, but had only 119 passing yards and one play of 20+ yards- Newton lost road opener by 7-6 points in his first two NFL seasons. Buffalo was outgained 431-286 by Patriots, had ten penalties for 75 yards, which led to Pats having 8-yard advantage in average field position- NE converted 11-20 on 3rd down- their only two TD drives were just 16-32 yards. Bills won four of five series games, winning two of three played here- Carolina last visited here in ’05. Panthers lost last four road openers (0-4 vs spread), losing by average score of 26-17.

Rams (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1)—Steven Jackson faces his old teammates in his Atlanta home opener; Falcons are 21-11-1 as home favorites under Smith, 13-4 in last 17 as non-divisional HF. Atlanta lost 23-17 in Superdome last week, as last drive ended on Saints’ 3-yard line; they were just 3-11 on 3rd down. Rams came back from 11 down to nip Arizona 27-24 at gun, despite a hideous pick-6 by Bradford and four personal foul penalties. Rams did average 7.9 yards per pass attempt as new TE Cook (141 rec yards) proved to be potent weapon. In his last six seasons as a HC, Fisher is 22-10-1 vs spread as a road dog; Rams were 7-1 in that role LY, with only one road loss (23-6 at Chicago) by more than seven points. Rams lost last 11 road openers, going 2-5 vs spread in last seven as dog in AO. Five of Rams’ last seven road openers stayed under the total.

Redskins (0-1) @ Packers (0-1)—RGIII looked rusty in first half Monday, little sharper in second but game was mostly out of reach by then; Washington seemed unprepared for Philly’s fast-paced offense, now they’re travelling on short week, playing team that scored four TDs at Candlestick last week, but also had six 3/outs that led to 13-yard deficit in average field position. Green Bay covered five of last six home openers, four of five when favored; over last four years, they’re 20-10 as home favorites, 12-5 as non-divisional HF. Packers won four of last five series games; Redskins lost last three visits here by combined score of 84-23, with their last visit here in ’07- they lost four of last five road openers, but covered four of last five as an underdog in AO’s. Washington is 13-7 vs spread as a road underdog under Shanahan.

Cowboys (1-0) @ Chiefs (1-0)—Solid KC debut for Andy Reid, holding Jaguars without TD in 28-2 win; Chiefs have struggled in home openers, losing four of last five, going 0-4-1 as favorites. Since 2007, Chiefs are 3-14-1 as home faves; Reid was 9-15 as home favorite his last four years in Philly. Dallas was outgained 478-331 last week, partially because they had two pick-6’s which gave Giants two extra possessions; Romo’s ribs are issue here, he played second half in pain Sunday night. Cowboys are 4-2 in last six road openers, covering five of the six games. Pokes won six of nine against Chiefs, winning last two meetings by FG each; they’ve split four visits to Arrowhead. Reid lost six of his last nine games vs Dallas while coaching Eagles. Cowboys are 8-4 as road dogs under Garrett. Over last 22 years, under is 17-3-2 in Chiefs’ home openers; 12 of last 16 Dallas road openers went over.

Vikings (0-1) @ Bears (1-0)—Chicago won six of last seven series games, with four of last five wins by 14+ points; Vikings lost last five visits here, losing 39-10/28-10 here last two years. Peterson had 78-yard TD run on first play last week, then had 15 yards on 17 carries rest of game; until Ponder can present legit threat in passing game, defenses will stack up against Viking run game, especially with FB Felton suspended for first four games. Bears are 6-10-1 in last 17 games as home favorites, but over last four years, they’re 4-2 as divisional HF. Since ’08, Vikings are 3-8 as divisional road dogs, 2-5 under former Bear Frazier, who is 1-3 coaching against his old team. Last week, Chicago had three takeaways (+2) and was 3-3 scoring TDs in red zone- they had 14-yard edge in average field position. Vikings allowed 469 yards in Detroit, 352 thru air (8.0 yards/attempt).

Saints (1-0) @ Bucs (0-1)—Payton’s return to sideline last week was success, thanks to last-minute goal-line stand; Saints are 15-12 as road favorite under Payton, 6-5 in divisional games. Brees averaged 9.2 yards/pass attempt last week. Over last four years, Bucs are 3-12-1 as home underdog, 2-5-1 vs NFC South foes. Tampa was all set for road win to start season last week until needless personal foul on last play put Jets in position to kick game-winning FG, tough way to start season; they had 13 penalties for 102 yards, lost to rookie QB, now they’re facing one of NFL’s best. Bucs lost last three games with Saints, including 41-0 debacle in last meeting at Superdome LY, when Bucs gained 367 yards but were -5 in turnovers. Saints won three of last four visits here; they’re 2-4 in last six road openers, with last five going over total. Tampa Bay is 5-3 in last eight home openers, with under 6-3-1 in their last ten.

Lions (1-0) @ Cardinals (0-1)—Arizona was 30-18 SU at home in Whisenhunt era; not sure I would’ve fired only coach to bring me to Super Bowl, but that’s me. Home side won nine of last ten series games, with eight of ten totals 42+; Redbirds won last four series games by average score of 29-16- they scored 31+ in last three meetings. Lions lost last six visits here- their last win in desert was 20 years ago; they’re 3-10 in last 13 road openers- under is 6-1-1 in last eight road openers. Arizona won five of last six home openers, with five of last seven going over total- they had 24-13 lead in second half at St Louis last week before losing at gun- Arians’ offense was 7-14 on 3rd down, averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt, but was hurt by 10-yard deficit in average field position. Lions had four takeaways last week (+2), outgained Vikings 469-330 as Stafford passed for 352 yards.

Jaguars (0-1) @ Raiders (0-1)— New QB Pryor was better than expected in opener at Indy last week, throwing for 217 yards, running for 112 more and converting 7-13 on 3rd down in narrow 21-17 loss, but Oakland has lost six of last eight home openers, going 0-5 vs spread as a favorite. Over last decade, Raiders are 9-23 vs spread as home favorites, 7-15 in non-divisional games. Jaguars lost last five road openers, but they’re 7-3 vs spread as dog in AO; Jax is 15-20 as road dogs last five years, but Bradley is also their third HC in three years, so not sure how much trends mean with them. Oakland outgained Colts by 98 yards but -2 turnover ratio did them in; still impressed by 7-13 on 3rd down with basically a rookie QB. Not only did Jax offense get shut out last week, only one of four KC TDs came on a drive longer than 24 yards. Jags won four of six in series, splitting four visits here; average total in last three meetings is 66.

Broncos (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)— Probably last Manning Bowl, unless teams meet in Super Bowl; Denver had 3+ extra days to prepare after gaining 510 yards vs Ravens in 49-27 opening win, but over last eight years, teams that won mid-week season opener are 3-5 SU, 1-7 vs spread in Week 2 game. Home side won last five series games; Broncos lost four of last five here vs Giants, with last three losses by total of 8 points. Denver is 13-6-1 as favorite under Fox, 6-2 on foreign soil, 5-1 outside division. Giants are home dog for just 4th time in last five years; since ’07, they’re 4-2 vs spread as a home dog. Hard to tell awful lot about Giant defense after offense gave up two TDs and Romo played second half with damaged ribs. Broncos lost last three road openers, by 7-3-6 points; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road openers. Giants won four of last five home openers, with three of last four going over.

49ers (1-0) @ Seahawks (1-0)—This has become intense rivalry because coaches don’t like each other; Harbaugh once upset Carroll as a 42-point dog in Stanford-USC days. Seattle is 17-7 vs spread at home under Carroll; Niners are 10-6 on road under Harbaugh. 49ers won four of last five in series where home teams won seven of last eight; Niners lost three of last four in Seattle, losing by 3-25-29 points. Seattle outgained Panthers by 127 yards last week, but 109 penalty yards and lousy red zone offense (6 points on 3 trips) held them back in 12-7 nailbiter (Panthers fumbled on Seattle 8 with 5:25 left). 49ers were +2 in turnovers, 9-18 on 3rd down but also had 85 yards in penalties as they held off Pack 34-28- three of their four TD drives were 80+ yards, as WR Boldin had big day in SF debut. Niners won five of last six road openers, covered six of last seven, with over 6-3-1 in their last 10. Hawks won four in row, nine of last ten home openers, with under 10-1-1 in their last 12. In Carroll era, Seattle is just 1-5 as favorite of 3 or less points.

Steelers (0-1) @ Bengals (0-1)—This is most points Bengals have been favored by over Pitt since 1989, but with C Pouncey out for year, heart/soul of Steeler OL is gone. Steelers won five of last six games in series where six of last eight games were decided by 7 or less points. Pitt won last three visits here, by 6-7-7 points- they’re 9-7 as road dog under Tomlin, but 5-6 in divisional games. Since ’08, Cincy has been consistent money burner as HF, going 6-15-1 vs spread, 4-11 in division games. Pitt offense didn’t score until last 2:00 at home last week, gaining 195 yards, running for 32- they went 3/out five of 10 drives, leading to huge 21-yard deficit in average field position. Bengals averaged 8.1/pass attempt, outgained Bears, but were -2 in turnovers and came up short- they started eight of ten drives 80+ yards from goal line, also going 3/out on five of 10 drives. Bengals are 0-3-1 in last four tries as favorite in home opener; Steelers are 2-4 in last six road openers, scoring 19 or less points in all six games. Over last five years, Bengals are 14-21-3 vs spread in game following a loss; over last three years, Steelers are 11-4-1 vs spread in same role.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella
3* sunday night gom
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