8-9-13

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Today's NFL Picks

FRIDAY, AUGUST 9 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (8/6)

Game 263-264: Miami at Jacksonville (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 117.741; Jacksonville 114.600 Dunkel Line: Miami by 3; 38 Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 1; 35 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+1); Over

Game 265-266: NY Jets at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 112.609; Detroit 130.900 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 18 1/2; 33 Vegas Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 36 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4 1/2); Under

Game 267-268: New England at Philadelphia (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New England 121.075; Philadelphia 122.566 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 37 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 4; 40 Dunkel Pick: New England (+4); Under

Game 269-270: Arizona at Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 117.667; Green Bay 125.013 Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 7 1/2; 38 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3 1/2; 35 Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3 1/2); Over

Game 271-272: Chicago at Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 114.380; Carolina 122.183 Dunkel Line: Carolina by 8; 37 Vegas Line: Carolina by 2 1/2; 34 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-2 1/2); Over

Game 273-274: Kansas City at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 117.066; New Orleans 118.211 Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1; 32 Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 36 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Under

Game 275-276: Houston at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 126.425; Minnesota 125.399 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 38 Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1; 35 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+1); Over

Game 277-278: Dallas at Oakland (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.267; Oakland 123.603 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 4 1/2; 32 Vegas Line: Dallas by 2; 35 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+2); Under

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Today's CFL Picks

FRIDAY, AUGUST 9
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (8/7) Game 123-124: Saskatchewan at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 124.239; Calgary 118.976
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 5 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Calgary by 3 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+3 1/2); Over

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Football Jesus CFL : Saskatchewan + the points

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Best over bets of NFL preseason Week 1

If you’re tackling totals this NFL preseason this week, take a look at which teams lean towards the over or the under during Week 1 of the exhibition schedule.

Records since 1995.

Best NFL preseason Week 1 over bets

New York Jets (7-10 SU, 12-5 O/U in Week 1)

The Jets offense was a joke last preseason, leading to a 1-3 over/under mark. Now that the cat’s out of the bag and the scoring struggles are frontpage fodder, New York’s totals could get a serious haircut this summer. Books have set the number at 36 points for the Jets Week 1 preseason date in Detroit.

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8 SU, 11-5-1 O/U in Week 1)

The Jaguars are another team known for their anemic offense. Jacksonville is bouncing between Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne at QB and will likely be without RB Maurice Jones-Drew for the preseason opener versus Miami Friday. Oddsmakers have the total at 35.5 for that matchup.

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The Factsman

MLB Friday Video Pick

Philadelphia Phillies ML+145
(J. Lannan -L vs D. Haren - R)

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DAVE ESSLER

Friday MLB Thoughts

Phillies-Nationals: Honestly, I really wonder if Haren is "back" or if he's just faced weaker opponents. He has, actually. The Phillies have their hitting shoes on and we don't like backing Washington against LHP, however this is John Lannan who did shut out the Nationals not long ago. Nationals more rested, but -165 isn't happening, and I could make a reasonable case for the Phillies, if not the RL.

Padres-Reds: I suppose if there was a pitcher on San Diego's roster we'd try to back it'd be Cashner. Arroyo hasn't been sharp at all his last two starts, and I honestly thought the Reds would be more than -160. Is that value or is that suicide. The Reds haven't seen much of Cashner, but he he did give up a ton more flyball outs to the Yankees than he's used to doing. If it weren't for that, this would be an auto-under and may well still be. Reds pen seemed to be better lately than a week ago.

Miami-Atlanta: I'd almost always look to take the RL or the ML with a big dog, as opposed to the alternative, but the Fish playing extras on Thursday and using all of their bullpen pretty much takes that out of the equation, which only leaves the total. Beachy didn't look terrific in his first start since Tommy John surgery, but the one thing the Braves will gave that the Fish won't is a bullpen. Almost want to think about the over in this one, which is lower due to the park and the pitchers.

Cubs-Cardinals: One could reasonably conclude that as good as Lynn looked against the Reds and as battered as the Cubs were Thursday that St. Louis simply rolls them. But, they haven't seen Rusin. But, that's not enough for me to think about the Cubs ML or the RL. I suppose it should be, but with the rest factor, I doubt it. Perhaps use the Cardinals in a ML parlay or something.

Pirates-Rockies: Well the Pirates certainly are catching all the breaks, but that's against Miami who is perhaps making them look better than they really are. The Fish did make them use a ton of arms out of the pen, which unless I totally trusted Liriano would concern me. I will never totally trust Lirano, and after he just two-hit the Rockies, one might think the Rockies make the adjustments. And De La Rosa was lit up by the Pirates, so perhaps some regression there as well. Because we can't trust either bullpen here, over may be the bet for me. A bit square, and the first move was to the under, but, half the Rockies team rested against the Mets. Perhaps the home dog.

Mets-Cardinals: That's a steep price to pay for Corbin, especially if you look back to Jult 2nd when the Mets tore him a new one in the 7th inning, with not much better of a lineup than they'll put out tomorrow. The Mets pen has been much better of late, and they've won 60% of their games against left handed starters this season. I wouldn't rule it out. I do lean under here as well.

Oakland-Toronto: A lot of love for the A's on the road here at -135, or total disrespect for the Jays and Rogers after coughing up that lead in Seattle on Wednesday. I wonder what this line would have been in April. Hell, Rogers was +180 in Atlanta this year and won, and we do like Toronto better against right handed pitching. I do have to wonder how much of the remaining energy Toronto might have had was left somewhere over Edmonton flying back. Parker is a flyball pitcher and the roof should be open. And since Oakland hammered Rogers and is still playing for all the marbles, one would have to think this goes over.

Angels-Indians: Seems like a cheap price for Weaver, but lets remember the Angels are done, and now perhaps mentally given the three game sweep, at home, to Texas. It's a shame I like the Indians better against LHP, or I'd go ahead and call this one right now. The Angels are 10-19 against LHP. FWIW Kazmir wears his glove on his right hand, which means he is a left handed pitcher. He did take a lot of pitches to get through 6 innings in his last start, and that was against the Fish, who we learned today will swing at anything. Before that he was hit hard at home by the White Sox. Weaver has not won a game on the road this season, so we'll take the Indians here, who still have reason to play, unless they use up their get out of jail free card against the Tigers on Thursday.

Detroit at NYY: Well, obviously the Yankees will be the rested team, and a lot of this probably depends on how may innings they get out of Max on Thursday. If it's not enough, I can make a case for fading Porcello here, but, with as well as the Tigers have hit Nova in limited at bats, perhaps over 8 before it goes to 8.5, which I think it will, is the right call here. At -120 they're begging for people to take Detroit, I would think, even making the Yankees slight dogs at home.

Boston-Kansas City: Totally dependent on Thursday's game, but I like the Royals here. They saw a ton of Peavy when he was with the White Sox, and typically hit him pretty well. I keep waiting for the Santana implosion, given that he had been a flyball pitcher most of his career, and not, until this season, a big strikeout guy. This is a game that I can see reaching eight runs before nine innings.

I'll finish the last few later, perhaps.

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Dave Essler NFL Side Fri, 08/09/13 - 8:00 PM

dime bet - 269 ARI 4.0 (-110) vs 270 GBP

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Pirates on Thursday and likes the Reds on Friday.

The deficit is 1437 sirignanos.

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JOE WIZ Free Plays

NFLx Play Under 36 NY Jets and Detroit

NFLx Play Under 35 Arizona and Green Bay

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BLASSCYK WINS

919 L.A. Angels ml (+104) *3 UNITS* (5 Dimes)

901 Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8 (-125) *5 UNITS* (MatchBook)

921 Detroit Tigers OVER 8 (-130) *5 UNITS* (Bovada)

929 Tampa Bay Rays OVER 6.5 (-120) *3 UNITS* (5 Dimes)

931 Baltimore Orioles ml (-125) *5 UNITS* (5 Dimes)

931 Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+135) *5 UNITS* (5 Dimes)

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Vic Monte Sports

Private Play REDS

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MLB Report

August 9

Hot pitchers
-- Haren is 2-0, 0.64 in his last two starts.
-- San Diego won last three Cashner starts (3-0, 3.79), scoring 24 runs.
-- Rusin is 1-1, 3.12 in his last three starts.
-- Lynn is 2-0, 1.71 in his last three starts.
-- Liriano is 7-1, 1.68 in his last eight starts. de la Rosa is 1-0, 1.00 in his last three home starts.
-- Corbin is 3-2, 1.82 in his last five starts.

-- Milwaukee won last four Lohse starts (2-0, 1.50)
-- Tampa Bay won last four Price starts (3-0, 1.95). Dodgers won last four Capuano starts (2-0, 1.90).
-- Orioles won 12 of last 13 Tillman starts (4-1, 4.55 in his last five).

-- Parker is 2-0, 3.41 in his last five road starts.
-- Weaver is 3-0, 1.23 in his last four starts. Kazmir is 3-0, 2.87 in his last five.
-- Detroit won last five Porcello starts (4-0, 1.87). Nova is 3-2, 1.66 in his last five outings.
-- Santana is 3-0, 1.91 in his last four starts. Peavy is 3-0, 4.50 in his last three.
-- Garza is 1-1, 3.22 in three starts for the Rangers.


Cold pitchers
-- Lannan is 1-1, 6.46 in his last three starts.
-- Arroyo is 0-2, 10.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Miami lost last four Turner starts (0-2, 3.47) scoring nine runs. Beachy is 0-0, 9.90 in two starts this season.
-- Hefner is 0-2, 11.21 in four starts since All-Star break.

-- Vogelsong was 1-3, 11.57 in his last five starts before going on DL, last of which was May 20.

-- Hendriks is 0-1, 4.82 in two starts, last of which was April 10. Gibson is 0-1, 7.07 in his last three starts. Danks is 0-4, 4.91 in his last six starts.
-- Toronto lost last four Rogers starts (0-2, 8.59).
-- Saunders is 1-2, 8.04 in his last three starts.
-- Astros lost last six Bedard starts (0-5, 5.03).


Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........

-- Lannan 4-12 (1 of last 7); Haren 4-20
-- Cashner 6-18 (1 of last 7); Arroyo 4-22
-- Turner 2-12; Beachy 2-2
-- Rusin 1-4; Lynn 6-23
-- Liriano 3-16; de la Rosa 4-23 (1 of last 14)
-- Hefner 8-22; Corbin 5-22

-- Lohse 7-23 (1 of last 9); Saunders 7-23
-- Price 5-16; Capuano 2-13
-- Tillman 4-22 (1 of last 11); Vogelsong 4-9

-- Gibson 2-7 Hendriks 1-2; Danks 6-14 Leesman 0-0
-- Parker 8-22; Rogers 4-12
-- Weaver 2-15 (0 of last 11); Kazmir 5-20 (1 of last 6)
-- Porcello 3-20 (0 of last 9); Nova 4-10
-- Peavy 2-14; Santana 9-23
-- Garza 1-15; Bedard 11-20 (5 of last 7)

Totals
-- Four of last six Waashington games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Miami games.
-- Six of last nine Cub games stayed under; six of last Cardinals games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Colorado games.
-- Seven of last nine Arizona games stayed under the total.

-- Seven of last nine Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight San Francisco games stayed under the total.

-- Three of last four Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Toronto games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Angel games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last ten Boston road games stayed under the total.
-- Ten of last fifteen Texas games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Reds won three of their last four games.
-- Braves won their last thirteen games.
-- Pirates won their last five games, allowing 12 runs.
-- Mets won their last three games, allowing three runs. Arizona is 8-5 in its last thirteen home games.

-- Brewers are 7-5 in their last twelve road games.
-- Dodgers are 34-8 in their last 42 games.
-- Orioles won seven of their last ten road games.

-- White Sox won their last three games, scoring 17 runs. Minnesota won four of its last six games.
-- Blue Jays won three of their last four games.
-- Tigers won 12 in row, 16 of last 17 games.
-- Kansas City won 14 of its last 16 games. Red Sox won nine of their last 13.
-- Rangers won nine of their last ten games.


Cold teams
-- Phillies lost 14 of their last 17 games. Washington lost its last four games.
-- Padres lost three of their last four games.
-- Marlins lost their last five games, scoring 12 runs.
-- St Louis lost three of last four games. Cubs lost six of their last seven.
-- Colorado lost nine of its last ten games.

-- Mariners lost six of their last nine games.
-- Rays lost four of their last six games.
-- Giants lost four of their last six games.

-- Oakland lost six of its last seven games.
-- Angels lost their last four games, allowing 29 runs. Cleveland lost its last four games, allowing 25 runs; they're 10-1 in last 11 games not against Detroit.
-- Bronx Bombers lost last four games, allowing 23 runs.
-- Astros lost 20 of their last 25 games.

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Baseball Crusher
Pittsburgh Pirates -122 over Colorado Rockies
(System Record: 61-7, won last game)
Overall Record: 61-65-1

Soccer Crusher
Racing Club + San Lorenzo UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 438-15, lost last game)
Overall Record: 438-374-59

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Today's MLB Picks

Milwaukee at Seattle

The Brewers look to build on their 7-0 record in Kyle Lohse's last 7 starts against a team with a losing record. Milwaukee is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, AUGUST 9 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Philadelphia at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lannan) 14.161; Washington (Haren) 15.748 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-165); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-165); Under

Game 903-904: San Diego at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Cashner) 15.036; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.205 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-160); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+140); Over

Game 905-906: Miami at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Turner) 15.209; Atlanta (Beachy) 16.925 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-200); Over

Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Rusin) 15.558; St. Louis (Lynn) 14.531 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 8 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+170); Under

Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.807; Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.241 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+115); Under

Game 911-912: NY Mets at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hefner) 15.041; Arizona (Corbin) 16.605 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Arizona (-180); 8 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-180); Over

Game 913-914: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 15.556; White Sox (Danks) 14.666 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 915-916: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hendriks) 14.234; White Sox (Leesman) 15.783 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 917-918: Oakland at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 16.490; Toronto (Rogers) 14.961 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 9 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-130); Over

Game 919-920: LA Angels at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.631; Cleveland (Kazmir) 15.777 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Under

Game 921-922: Detroit at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 18.379; NY Yankees (Nova) 14.593 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125); Over

Game 923-924: Boston at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 15.664; Kansas City (Santana) 16.799 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Under

Game 925-926: Texas at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Garza) 16.801; Houston (Bedard) 14.019 Dunkel Line: Texas by 3; 7 Vegas Line: Texas (-185); 8 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-185); Under

Game 927-928: Milwaukee at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.418; Seattle (Saunders) 14.498 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); Over

Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 17.535; LA Dodgers (Capuano) 16.015 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Under

Game 931-932: Baltimore at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 14.637; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.703 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-130); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110); Over