6-10-13

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Rounding the bases: The best bets in the bigs

Every week we take a look at the hottest and coldest teams as well as the best over and under bets in Major League Baseball.

For the week of June 3-9.

Hot team: Detroit Tigers
Last week: 5-1
Season: 35-26
Upcoming schedule: at Royals, at Twins

Skinny: The Tigers have won four straight heading into a three-game series in Kansas City. Detroit took two of three from the Tampa Bay Rays last week before sweeping division-rival Cleveland.

Cold team: Cleveland Indians
Last week: 0-6
Season: 30-32
Upcoming schedule: at Rangers, vs. Nationals

Skinny: Terry Francona’s club was the feel-good story early in the season, but the Tribe has now dropped seven straight games to sink below .500. The Indians have a very tough schedule this week and could find themselves near the bottom of the division standings if they can’t snap the losing skid in Texas against a very tough Rangers team.

Over team: Boston Red Sox
Last week: 5-1 over/under
Season: 34-27-3 over/under
Upcoming schedule: at Rays, at Orioles

Skinny: The Red Sox hosted the high-powered Rangers and Angels last week and runs were aplenty in both series. The teams combined to score an average of 12.3 runs per game in Boston's six high-scoring affairs.

Under team: New York Yankees
Last week: 2-5 over/under
Season: 24-34-5 over/under
Upcoming schedule: at Athletics, at Angels

Skinny: The Yankess have gone low in four consecutive games and five of their last six thanks to a great effort from their pitching staff. New York hurlers held opposing batters to 2.5 runs per game last week.

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NHL Stanley Cup Final preview: Blackhawks vs. Bruins

The Boston Bruins, who swept the heavily-favored Pittsburgh Penguins to win the Eastern Conference title, and the Chicago Blackhawks, who prevailed over the defending champion Los Angeles Kings on Saturday, renew their Original Six rivalry in the 2013 Stanley Cup Final.

Here is our betting preview:

No. 1 Chicago Blackhawks vs. No. 4 Boston Bruins

Series prices: Blackhawks -145, Bruins +125

Blackhawks' playoff betting numbers: 12-5 SU, 5-7-5 over/under

Bruins' playoff betting numbers: 12-4 SU, 7-7-2 over/under

Why bet the Blackhawks:

Chicago is the betting favorite for a reason. The Blackhawks won the Presidents' Trophy as the NHL's best team; they finished 15 points ahead of Boston. Chicago’s penalty kill has been lights out in the playoffs, killing off 94.8 percent of the opposition’s power plays. That is over seven percent higher than their season average (87.2 percent). Additionally, the Bruins are struggling with the man advantage. Boston failed to score a power play goal in its sweep of Pittsburgh. The Blackhawks will enjoy home advantage in the final round. Chicago is 9-1 at home and is averaging 3.30 goals per game, while allowing only 1.7. Goaltender Corey Crawford is 12-5-1 with a playoff-best 1.74 GAA.

Why bet the Bruins:

The Bruins have been on a tear since getting a scare from the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round. Boston has won nine of its last 10 and has a ton of confidence after sweeping the high-powered Penguins. The Bruins have a deep, talented group of forwards. Nine of Boston’s 13 forwards have scored a goal in the playoffs and 10 have three or more points. Center David Krejci leads all scorers in the playoffs with 21 points in 16 games. The Bruins are getting an even better effort from their defensemen. Boston is allowing 1.33 goals per game over its last nine games and has received a contribution of 15 goals from the back end this postseason. Goaltender Tuukka Rask stopped 134 of 136 shots for an incredible .985 save percentage against Pittsburgh. He has a 12-4 record, 1.75 GAA and .948 save percentage in the postseason and could be a strong candidate for the Conn Smythe Trophy if Boston should go all the way. The Bruins won’t have home advantage in this series but it might not matter. Boston is 5-1-1 on the road in the postseason, averaging 3.43 goals per game, while allowing just 1.86.

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Will the Bruins' success give Red Sox a boost?

With the Stanley Cup Final set to commence Wednesday, it’s sure to be front and center in the cities of Boston and Chicago.

Both teams have had recent cup runs. The Bruins were Stanley Cup victors in 2011 and the Blackhawks took home the hardware the previous year in 2010.

So with the focus on puck in these cities during the Stanley Cup Final, how will their baseball teams fare?

“There is a chance it might take some of the spotlight off the other local teams during the Cup,” says Covers Expert Steve Merrill. “It might help take pressure off a team that is slumping, but I wouldn’t really use it as any type of handicapping factor for the other sports.”

The Red Sox went 10-2 (7-3-2 over/under) during the Bruins’ cup run in 2011, including 3-1 at Fenway Park. However, the BoSox will play some formidable opponents in the coming weeks. The Red Sox will square off with the Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers while the B's battle for the Cup this year.

The picture isn’t quite as rosy for the Chicago baseball teams.

The Cubs and White Sox both went 4-6 while the Blackhawks were playing for Lord Stanley’s mug in 2010. Both teams struggled even more while playing at home. The Cubs went 2-5 at Wrigley, while the White Sox went 3-5 on home ground.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Mets Sunday.

Monday it’s the Rays. The deficit is 542 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Tampa Bay Rays
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians

"With plaudits still rolling in for Hondo because of his Belmont Stakes cold trifecta (that he didn’t play), Mr. Aitch sank deeper into the red yesterday when he walked the plank with the Pirates, whose failure in Wrigley caused the debt to grow to 275 sturdivants.
Tonight, he expects Cobb, that cornball, to stop the Sawx – 10 units on the Rays to lump up Lackey. As for the canines, he is whistling for the D’backs over Kershaw and the Native Americans over Lindblom – 10 units apiece."

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Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

BASEBALL

DETROIT -131 KC (8PM)

ATLANTA/SD - UNDER 7.5 -115 (10PM)

PJ (TENNIS PLAYS)

WTA

Mariana Duque-Marino +110 Lourdes Dominguez Lino (845AM)

ATP

Santiago Giraldo +140 Jesse Levine (730AM)

Guido Pella +175 Daniel Evans (730AM)

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Nolasco is 1-1, 2.17 in his last four starts.
-- Feldman is 4-0, 1.26 in his last four home starts.
-- Teheran is 2-1, 1.52 in his last four starts. Marquis is 6-0, 3.47 in his last eight outings.

-- Weaver is 1-0, 3.00 in two starts since coming off the DL,. Garcia is 1-0, 1.29 in his last two starts at Camden Yards.
-- Cobb is 2-0, 1.26 in his last four starts. Lackey is 2-1, 2.16 in his last four.
-- Fister has a 2.42 RA in his last three starts, but Detroit lost all three games, scoring a total of two runs. Guthrie is 1-0, 2.25 in his last two starts.
-- Axelrod is 3-1, 3.10 in his last five starts.
-- Iwakuma is 5-0, 2.06 in his last eight starts. Keuchel is 2-0, 2.07 in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Gallardo is 1-5, 6.25 in his last six starts.
-- Bailey is 0-1, 8.44 in his last couple starts.
-- Kershaw is 0-2, 4.50 in his last three starts. Miley is 1-4, 8.26 in his last five starts.

-- Kazmir is 1-2, 5.54 in his last five starts. Lindblom allowed four runs in 4.2 IP in losing his first '13 start.
-- Dickey is 1-3, 4.32 in his last five starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Gallardo 3-13; Nolasco 4-12
-- Bailey 2-12; Feldman 3-11
-- Teheran 5-11; Marquis 3-12
-- Miley 2-12; Kershaw 0-13

-- Weaver 2-4; Garcia 3-7
-- Lackey 2-9; Cobb 2-11
-- Kazmir 2-9; Lindblom 0-1
-- Fister 2-12; Guthrie 3-12 (2 of last 2)
-- Dickey 5-13; Axelrod 3-12
-- Keuchel 1-6; Iwakuma 4-13

Totals
-- Five of last seven Miami games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- 11 of last 15 Arizona games went over the total.

-- Angels' last four games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Kansas City games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Seattle games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Brewers won their last three games, scoring 18 runs.
-- Atlanta won 17 of its last 23 games.

-- Orioles won six of their last seven home games.
-- Boston won 11 of its last 16 games. Tampa Bay won 10 of its last 14.
-- Royals won their last five games, allowing eight runs. Detroit won five of its last six games.
-- Blue Jays won four of their last six games..

Cold teams
-- Miami lost its last 12 games that weren't against the Mets.
-- Cincinnati, Cubs both lost five of their last seven games.
-- Padres lost five of their last eight games.
-- Arizona lost three of its last four games. Dodgers lost their last two games, scoring two runs.

-- Angels lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Indians lost their last seven games, allowing 45 runs. Texas lost three of last four games, but won four of last five at home.
-- White Sox lost ten of their last thirteen games, but won last two.
-- Mariners lost four of their last five games. Houston lost its last four games, scoring total of five runs.

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Baseball Crusher
San Diego Padres +122 over Atlanta Braves
(System Record: 35-4, won last game)
Overall Record: 35-36-1

Soccer Crusher
San Lorenzo + Argentinos Juniors OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 409-15, lost last game)
Overall Record: 409-357-49

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Today's MLB Picks

Detroit at Kansas City

The Royals look to build on their 11-1 record in Jeremy Guthrie's last 12 home starts. Kansas City is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, JUNE 10 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Milwaukee at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.518; Miami (Nolasco) 13.804 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-125); Under

Game 903-904: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.380; Cubs (Feldman) 15.468 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+110); N/A

Game 905-906: Atlanta at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 17.293; San Diego (Marquis) 15.593 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-140); Under

Game 907-908: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 13.826; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.521 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-200); Over

Game 909-910: LA Angels at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.579; Baltimore (Garcia) 14.017 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-140); Under

Game 911-912: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 15.552; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 16.883 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-135); Over

Game 913-914: Cleveland at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kazmir) 14.974; Texas (Lindblom) 14.347 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+130); Under

Game 915-916: Detroit at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 15.444; Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.205 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Over

Game 917-918: Toronto at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 14.629; White Sox (Axelrod) 15.558 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+110); Under

Game 919-920: Houston at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 14.758; Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.052 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Seattle (-240); 7 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+200); Over

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1045-778 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner Mon: Angels -145

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Monday

Blue jays -130

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Monday Seattle/Houston Under 7

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Accuscore

NL WEST DIV GAME SV48-28, 63.2%+2060
ARI 907 vs LAD 908 -- Value on Arizona Diamondbacks +183


ML-Home Wins 45 to 49.9%85-65, 56.7%+1777
ATL 905 vs SD 906 -- Over 50% on Atlanta Braves -128
BOS 911 vs TB 912 -- Over 50% on Boston Red Sox +112
CIN 903 vs CHC 904 -- Over 50% on Cincinnati Reds -123

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB ARIZONA at LA DODGERS

Play Against - Any team (LA DODGERS) below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL
89-69 since 1997. ( 56.3% 45.6 units )
6-7 this year. ( 46.2% -0.2 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB LA ANGELS at BALTIMORE

BALTIMORE is 90-60 (+38.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.6) , OPPONENT (4.2)