12-26-12

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TEDDY COVERS

10* West Ky

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Little Caesars Bowl: What bettors need to know

Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan (6, 57)

LITTLE CAESARS BOWL STORYLINES

1. Western Kentucky makes its first bowl appearance in history as a program in transition. Coach Willie Taggart left to take the South Florida job, disgraced former Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino takes over the Hilltoppers, but defensive coordinator Lance Guidry will guide the team in the bowl game.

2. Central Michigan saved its best football for a 13-day stretch in November. The Chippewas were 3-6 after losing to Western Michigan, but won three games in less than two weeks starting with a 34-31 victory over Eastern Michigan on Nov. 10. A 42-21 triumph at Massachusetts moved Central Michigan to 6-6 on the season.

3. The Chippewas average 29.3 points; the Hilltoppers 28.8. The big difference comes on defense. Western Kentucky allows 25.6 points per game (second in the Sun Belt Conference), while Central Michigan surrenders 33.3. Western Kentucky struggled on defense down the stretch, allowing 30-plus points four times in six games to go 2-4. Losing senior defensive end Quanterus Smith (12 sacks) to a torn left ACL in the next-to-last game was a big blow.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Western Kentucky -6, O/U 57

CONSENSUS: Nearly 55 percent of Covers Consensus players are backing Western Kentucky and 58 percent like the over.

TRENDS:

* Hilltoppers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win.
* Chippewas are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Chippewas’ last five December games.
* Over is 4-1 in Hilltoppers’ last five games following a win.

ABOUT WESTERN KENTUCKY (7-5, 4-4 Sun Belt): Junior running back Antonio Andrews comes in after two monster rushing games, finishing with 238 yards against Louisiana-Lafayette and 230 yards against North Texas. The Sun Belt’s leading rusher with 1,609 yards this season, Andrews has three games of 200-plus yards and leads the conference by averaging 248.1 all-purpose yards. The Hilltoppers have been particularly tough on opposing running games, holding opponents to only 136.6 yards on the ground (second in the conference). Junior linebacker Andrew Jackson leads Western Kentucky and ranks second in the conference in tackles (116).

ABOUT CENTRAL MICHIGAN (6-4, 4-4 MAC): The Chippewas make their fourth appearance in the Detroit bowl since 2006, going 1-2. They have running back Zurlon Tipton to thank for helping fuel their last-season sprint. The junior rushed for 185 yards and four touchdowns in the victory over Massachusetts, and has rushed for 110 or more yards in six consecutive games. Tipton rushed for 1,391 yards and 19 touchdowns this season. Quarterback Ryan Radcliff (2,905 yards, 20 touchdowns) finished third in the MAC in passing yards. Sophomore linebacker Justin Cherocci averaged 10.3 tackles per game, fourth in the conference.

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DCI College Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Week 18 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 1046-346 (.751)
ATS: 417-395 (.514)
ATS Vary Units: 2445-2295 (.516)
Over/Under: 375-361 (.510)
Over/Under Vary Units: 1237-884 (.583)

Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
at Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Central Michigan 32, Western Kentucky 30

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with San Francisco (-11 1/2) Tuesday.

Wednesday it’s Western Kentucky. The deficit is 1083 sirignanos.

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Allen Eastman ACE-ACE

LITTLE CEASAR’S BOWL

4* Take #215 Central Michigan (+5.5) over Western Kentucky (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 26)

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Playbook Marc Lawrence

LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL
Ford Field • Detroit, MI
Western Kentucky over C Michigan by 3
At first glance, we did a double (or in this case a pizza, pizza) when we
realized that all four Sun Belt bowl teams have been installed as favorites
this season. Of course – maybe outside of Kent State – their foes would
have trouble qualifying for the Lingerie League playoffs and wouldn’t be
2012 season – and saddle them with yet another losing season. Sounds like
a lot to overcome, especially against a UC squad where bowling has become
old hat (sixth bowl in the last seven years). But not all is peachy with the
Bearcats: head coach Butch Jones followed in Brian Kelly’s shoes when he
took the money and ran (Tennessee Vols), leaving DL coach Steve Stripling to
oversee this game (Cincinnati has since hired Texas Tech’s Tommy Tuberville
to take over in 2013). Though Jones’ departure is being downplayed, it will
clearly be a distraction leading up to today’s bout. Worse is the fact that
nearly all meaningful ATS history leans to the Blue Devils. Despite Cincy’s
familiarity with postseason play, the unfortunate truth is the Bearcats are a
paltry 2-7 ATS as bowlers since the turn of the century. In conference terms,
Big East squads are a woeful 3-14 ATS vs .750 or less ACC opponents and
just 2-8 ATS as favorites versus the ACC in bowl games. Meanwhile, ACC
bowl teams off back-to-back SUATS losses are 9-2 ATS since 1990, including
6-0 ATS off a conference loss. Finally, Duke coach Cutcliffe owns a morethan-respectable 5-1 SUATS record
as a bowler (3-0 SUATS as a dog).
Put it all together and we can overlook the Durham Devils’ disturbing -108 net
YPG effort in the 2nd half of the regular season. With somewhat of a ‘home
field’ edge in this contest (Duke campus 144 miles from Charlotte), we won’t
be surprised to see these mongrels earn ATS Best in Show honors.

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CKO

10* #215 Central Michigan
Accumulation of edges favors Central Mich, with CKO insiders reporting that the Chippewas are well-focused forthis trip east from Mount Pleasant to Detroit. The underdog Chippewas, after a couple of years of rebuilding, are maturing into a veteran, balanced force, led by sr. QB Ryan Radcliff and jr. RB Zurlon Tipton, a Detroit native.
Meanwhile, Western Kentucky struggled down the stretch (1-3 SU last 4), and saw HC and alum Willie Taggart depart for South Florida. The Hilltoppers covered only 1 of their last 5 as a favorite. This is Western’s first bowl game at the FBS level.
Late Score Forecast
CENT’L MICHIGAN 31 - W. Kentucky 26

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Pointwise

2* Western Kentucky 40 - Central Michigan 24

WESTERN KENTUCKY (7-5) vs CENTRAL MICHIGAN (6-6)
Little Caesars Bowl
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26
7:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
No one will ever forget the '52 Refrigerator Bowl, nor the '63 Tangerine Bowl. And
certainly not the '73 & '75 Camelia Bowls. Well, those contests grace the resume
of these Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky. Surely, not to belittle the importance of
those contests, nor their participants, & the teams in those conferences, which
stove mightily to advance to those sites. But only to be used as a backdrop to the
solid advancement of this Western squad, which is in just its 5th season of FBS
play (they entered the SunBelt in '09). And what a transformation it has been, as
the Hilltoppers posted 2-10, 0-12, & 2-10 records in '08, '09, & '10, before turning
the corner with a 7-5 log in '11, including wins over bowl-bound MiddleTennSt &
Troy. Not only that, but they became a spread darlings, covering their final 9 gms,
& 10-of-11 overall. And they picked up where they left off this year with a 5-0
spread mark, right off the bat: right: 14-0 ATS. They've certainly cooled since,
with just 1 cover since 10/11 (by 1 pt), as well as 1 SU win since Oct (also by 1
pt). However, QB Jakes (#28 in passing efficiency), & RB Andrews (#6 rusher:
134 ypg), along with 23rd ranked "D" present a formidable task for the Chippewas
of Central Michigan, which needed a sweep of their final 3 games (4 of last 5) to
make it to their 1st bowl since '09, when the heyday of LeFevour & Co provided
4 consecutive trips. But taking the likes of Akron, EastMich, Miami-O, & UMass
(combined 8-40) hardly represent proper credentials for a post-season spot.
Check ranking 95th, 97th, & 96th in total, rushing, & scoring "D". QB Radcliff did
throw for 2,905 yds, with Tipton a steady 1,391 yds (19 TDs), but the Chips were
stung for 41, 31, 55, 50, 41, & 42 pts in their 6 dog roles this year. Western call.

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Statfox

GAME BREAKDOWN
Western Kentucky makes its bowl debut against a Central Michigan team playing in its fourth Little Caesars Bowl in seven years, losing each of the past two by a field goal. The Chippewas are riding a three-game win streak (SU and ATS) thanks mostly to RB Zurlon Tipton who has six straight 100-yard games with 13 TD during this streak. The Hilltoppers also have a star back in Antonio Andrews who has carried the ball 264 times in his past 10 games, racking up 238 and 230 yards in his past two games. He is a big reason why WKU is 6-0 ATS (4-2 SU) in non-home games this season.

TEAM POWER TREND
Central Michigan is 2-13 ATS
(-12.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was Central Michigan 23.9, OPPONeNT 39.8.
RATING = 3*

Super Situation
• Play Over - Any team against the total (Central Michigan) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, in December games.
• The situation’s record is 31-9 over the last 5 seasons (77.5%, +21.1 units).
RATING = 3*

Forecaster
Central Michigan Chippewas 24
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 36

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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Central Michigan Chippewas
Point Spread - Pick

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Little Caesars Bowl
Date/Time: Wednesday, December 26th, 2012, 7:30 p.m. EST
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Mich.
TV: ESPN/DirecTV 206
by Badger, Football Handicapper.

Point Spread: WKU -5.5/CMU +5.5
Over/Under Total: 57.5

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will get to open a late Christmas present on December 26th in the form of the school's first-ever bowl game, when the Hilltoppers take on the Central Michigan Chippewas in the Little Caesars Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit the night after the holiday on ESPN.

The Hilltoppers have only been an FBS football program since 2009, so going to the Little Caesars Bowl is a big deal for the school and the players despite the fact that they lost four of their last six games this season, ending in fifth in the Sun Belt Conference at 7-5 (4-4 in Sun Belt).

West. Kentucky has also been in the news lately due to the musical chairs they've been playing with their head coach. Willie Taggart, who came to the Hilltoppers from Stanford when Jim Harbaugh jumped to the NFL and turned the program around in his three years, has cashed in on his success and left to take over the South Florida job. But before the ink was dry on Taggart's resignation letter, Western Kentucky made even bigger headlines when they hired Bobby Petrino to take over the head coaching job at the school, the former Louisville, Atlanta Falcons and Arkansas coach that can seem to shake controversy where ever he goes even though he keeps moving every few seasons.

Defensive coordinator Lance Guidry will coach the Hilltoppers in the bowl game, but with so many faces moving on and new ones coming in, you have to believe it will have an affect on the players as they prepare for their first-ever postseason game at the campus located in Bowling Green, Kentucky.

If you have a problem with the Hilltoppers making a bowl game at just 7-5, then you'll flip your lid to find out the that Chippewas made it into postseason play with just a 6-6 record. Central Michigan won their final three games of the season just to get to .500, beating the murderers row of 2-10 Eastern Michigan, 1-11 UMass and 4-8 Miami (OH) to "earn" an invite to the Little Caesars Bowl in Detroit, just a short two-and-a-half hour drive from their campus in Mount Pleasant.

Central Michigan hasn't been to a bowl game since former coach Butch Jones left for Cincinnati (and now Tennessee), so this will be the first trip for many of the players as well as head coach Dan Enos. They'll also be attempting to get a game closer to .500 in the school's bowl history, since they've gone 2-4 in their previous six tries even though they won the GMAC Bowl in their last appearance (in OT).

Oddsmakers originally opened the game with Western Kentucky as 6-point favorites, but with all of the coaching changes in the past week the number has dropped to minus -5.5 or -5 at most sportsbooks. The combination of the "homefield" advantage and no turnover at Central Michigan makes the Chippewas an attractive wager, but since most of the early money is on Western Kentucky, the line movement going against the steam makes this point spread one of the more fishier one coming out of Las Vegas this bowl season.

And if you want to talk about weird lines, let's talk about the over/under total for this game. The total opened at 58.5 and can currently be found all over the map, up to 59, down to 57.5, even as low as 56.5, so if you want a certain number you might be able to find it if you look around at multiple offshore sportsbooks.

Offensively this game will feature the FBS leader in all-purpose yards, Western Kentucky's do-everything junior running back Antonio Andrews. Andrews has run for 1,609 yards (5.8 ypc), caught 34 passes for 411 yards (12.7 ypc) and scored 14 touchdowns, but he's also one of the country's top returners accounting for 957 return yards and a solid 28 yards per kickoff and 12.8 yards per punt return average.

Since the Hilltoppers rely on Andrews so much to power their offense it begs the easy question … if Central Michigan can just stop Andrews they should be able to stop Western Kentucky. However, the Chippewas play in the Mid-American Conference (MAC), the conference that has become (in)famous for 120-point shootouts on Tuesday nights, so it's no surprise that Central Michigan has the 95th-ranked defense in FBS allowing over 441 yards a game and 33.3 points a contest. The 197 yards per game the Chippewas allow on the ground is especially unimpressive, so stopping Andrews from racking up more all-purpose yards could end up being a really tall task.

This means the Chippewas will need to outscore the Hilltoppers with some offense of their own. Senior quarterback Ryan Radcliff has had a decent year (59%, 2,895 yards, 20 TD, 9 INT), and he has a very dangerous weapon on the outside in sophomore Titus Davis (850 yards, 19.8 ypc, 8 TD). But Davis hurt his ankle in the Chippewas last game, and although he's listed as probable, he still might be 100 percent. This means that Central Michigan will need to rely more on junior running back Zurlon Tipton to move the chains and keep the ball away from Andrews and the Hilltoppers, and considering that Tipton has 1,391 yards and 20 touchdowns this year, that might be their best option anyway. Tipton is also from Detroit, so he'll be fired up to play in front of family and friends in the bowl game.

Considering that Western Kentucky has only been playing FBS football for a few years, it should be no surprise that these two schools have never met on the gridiron.

The Hilltoppers young program also doesn't help to provide many historical betting trends either, although they did go 8-4 ATS this season including a 5-0 ATS mark in their last five non-Sun Belt games.

CMU is 2-4 SU in bowl games as mentioned, and they are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-MAC games. But the Chippewas are 4-1-1 ATS when they play on Wednesday, so the short trip to Detroit on the day after Christmas might play right into their hands in this game.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm not a huge fan of placing too much money on these "lower tier" bowl games between teams that arguably don't even deserve to be playing in a bowl game. That said, I just can't get past the fact that the Hilltoppers team has been turned upside down with all of the coaching changes in the past few weeks. Western Kentucky is probably the better team, with more talent, but in college that doesn't always translate into wins (or covers). So I'm going with the safe pick here … the over. Central Michigan will have a hard time stopping Andrews, but they should be able the get their points too. Take the over of 57.5.

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Cappers Access

C. Michigan +6

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Miami won its last five games (3-5 as AF).
-- Pacers won six of their last seven games (7-3 as HF).
-- Milwaukee won six of last nine games (8-3 vs spread after a loss).
-- Grizzlies won four of last five games (8-4-1 as HF).
-- Rockets won last four games, all by 13+ points (4-5-1 as AU).
-- Raptors won their last five games (6-8 as AU). San Antonio won its last six home games (7-4-1 as HF).
-- Nuggets won its last six home games (6-2 as HF). Lakers won last five games, with four wins by 6 or less points (1-3 as AU).
-- Warriors won 11 of last 15 games (7-2-2 as AU).
-- Portland won five of its last six games (2-5-1 as HF).

Cold Teams
-- Washington lost its last seven games (2-9 SU at home). Cavaliers lost 11 of last 13 games (1-16 SU on road).
-- Bobcats lost their last 15 games (covered one of last six).
-- Hornets lost last 11 games (covered four of last five on road). Orlando lost its last two games, scoring 90-93 points (2-3 as HF).
-- Chicago lost three of its last five games (3-4 as AU).
-- Pistons lost 8 of last 11 games, but won the last two, both vs Wizards (5-9 as AU). Atlanta lost three of last five games (2-7-1 as HF).
-- Brooklyn lost four of its last five games (4-4 as AU).
-- 76ers lost six of last seven games (4-5 as AU).
-- Timberwolves lost three of last four games (6-1-1 as HF).
-- Jazz lost four of last six games (5-4 as HF).
-- Knicks lost three of last five games (5-2 vs spread after a loss, 1-5 in last six as AF). Phoenix lost nine of last 13 games (3-3 as HU).
-- Kings lost six of their last eight games (5-7 as AU).

Totals
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Washington games.
-- Six of last seven Miami games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last ten Orlando games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Indiana games went over the total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Detroit games.
-- Last five Brooklyn games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Philly's last eight games; seven of last eight Memphis games stayed under.
-- Last three Minnesota games stayed under total; last three Houston games all went over.
-- Six of last eight Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Denver home games stayed under total.
-- Last five Golden State games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Phoenix games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Portland games stayed under the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Heat is 1-2 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Bulls are 4-3 vs spread if they played night before, 3-1 if they lost.
-- Nets are 1-4 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Houston is 2-4 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Denver is 4-1-1 vs spread if it played night before (all on road). Lakers are 2-2-1 vs spread if they played night before (all on road).
-- Knicks are 2-3 vs spread on road if they played night before.

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

12/27/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 1374-402 (.774)
ATS: 542-566 (.489)
ATS Vary Units: 1956-2148 (.477)
Over/Under: 158-149 (.515)
Over/Under Vary Units: 203-226 (.473)

Gotham Classic
Round Robin at campus sites
CANISIUS 78, Alcorn State 59
TEMPLE 78, Detroit 69

Summit League
IUPUI 72, Fort Wayne 70
WESTERN ILLINOIS 68, Oakland 62

Sun Belt Conference
ARKANSAS STATE 72, UL Lafayette 67
TROY 72, Florida Atlantic 67
WESTERN KENTUCKY 73, Fairleigh Dickinson 62

Non-Conference
AKRON 80, Texas Southern 59
BYU 88, Northern Arizona 63
CINCINNATI 70, New Mexico 61
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT 77, Morgan State 68
SAINT MARY'S 78, Rhode Island 64

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

12/26/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 269-127 (.679)
ATS: 201-201 (.500)
ATS Vary Units: 651-579 (.529)
Over/Under: 208-193 (.519)
Over/Under Vary Units: 367-310 (.542)

WASHINGTON 97, Cleveland 93
Miami 106, CHARLOTTE 89
ORLANDO 93, New Orleans 87
INDIANA 90, Chicago 86
ATLANTA 98, Detroit 87
MILWAUKEE 99, Brooklyn 93
MEMPHIS 95, Philadelphia 85
MINNESOTA 104, Houston 103
SAN ANTONIO 109, Toronto 92
DENVER 108, L.A. Lakers 102
UTAH 107, Golden State 101
New York 102, PHOENIX 101
PORTLAND 105, Sacramento 99