UFC 155

[edman5555]

The line is creeping up on Cain, +180 here. Thinking of throwing down something.

Do you think you could post the lines and limits for the other fights? I know its a lot of typing but anything you could post would be interesting.

[SPX]

Interesting video with Todd Duffee. He talks about life outside the UFC and the importance of getting back in and the process of maturing as a fighter.




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEZ7S5-gkcQ

[BIGDAY]

What's up boys!!!

Miller & JDS

Both get their hand raised.

[poopoo333]

I love Lauzon tonight. I also like Cain but after the weigh ins I feel he doesn't look in much better shape than he was at UFC on FOX 1.

[edman5555]

Cain doesnt look like he is shape and never does. He is always in amazing shape though. Why do you like lauzon? i dont get it. I could see him pulling something off, maybe a sub. I am thinking about betting Leonard garcia.

[edman5555]

I am just thinking leonard might be experinced enoud tough enough to take this.

[edman5555]

By the way leonard fought his last fight with a fractured ankle.

[poopoo333]

I honestly think Jim Miller is on a bit of a decline, and I am also convinced he was never THAT great. I believe he has a lack of cardio, overrated wrestling, bad wrestling defense, and I do not think he is going to be in the best shape for this fight. See this interview:

http://www.mmafighting.com/2012/12/27/3810314/jim-miller-hoping-to-capitalize-on-joe-lauzons-quick-starts


He pretty much admitted he was not in shape at all starting his camp for this fight on short notice and was in the "upper 180s".


Let's go through his fights dating back to UFC 100:

Mac Danzig- won a top control decision against a guy that has had problems with these types of fighters

Steve Lopez- Who?

Duane Ludwig-Grappler vs Striker match up.

Mark Bocek- LOL at this decision. Bocek pretty much got all of the takedowns and had Miller in horrible spots during the whole fight. Miller ended up escaping some bad positions and ended up on top for a period of time which somehow won him rounds. Even his hometown was booing the decision.

Gleison Tibau- His best win based on the style match ups imo. However, he was taken down a few times and the fight was pretty damn close.

Charles Oliveira-Overrated. Flashy striker who isn't that great that got hyped up for some quick sub wins. Also a featherweight.

Kamal Shalorus-This guy is 100 years old with a horrible gas tank. He was done after round 1 (and even got a takedown or 2 of his own on Miller)

Melvin Guillard-Guillard is 0-1,000,000 to guys that know how to do a rear naked choke.

Miller's striking is nothing special. His overall takedown game is very overrated imo. Nate Diaz was able to stuff him easily and Diaz is notorious for having bad T3D. He gets put in bad positions on the ground. If he ends up on top Lauzon will more than likely capitalize and get better positions in scrambles. I also will not be surprised to see Lauzon get takedowns of his own.

I also believe Lauzon is coming into his own as a fighter. He is probably reaching his prime right now. I also think his cardio issues are very exaggerated.

UFC 108: Joe Lauzon came back from a serious knee injury and hadn't fought in a year. He was beating Stout's ass round 1 and they were having a "war"...Lauzon gassed after a very high paced round 1 that was back and forth.

UFC 123: Same thing (without the injury layoff)...him and G-Sot were having a very high paced grappling match in round 1 and Lauzon got tired going into round 2.

Fast forward two years: His fight with Varner was insane...lots of back and forth grappling and Lauzon was not gassed. He pulled off a sweep on a strong wrestler in round 3 and got a triangle win. Round 3 finish for the guy that supposedly goes into cardiac arrest after round 1.

[Vandelay]

Repped. Great points PP. Actually probably convinced me to bet Lauzon. Assuming my Perez bet wins.

[poopoo333]

I may be wrong but I just have a strong feeling about this fight. I loved Miller when it was first announced but I really have come around on Lauzon. I got a good amount on him right now at +180 but if I am doing well up until that point I am going to increase my bet if Lauzon is +200 or better.

[Vandelay]

When has he really been proven to have good striking? against Kamal and thats about it and Kamal is like Leonard Garcia. So then it comes down to grappling and his takedowns arent very good either. soooo as long as Joe doesnt gas I like it.

[poopoo333]

War Lauzon

[edman5555]

Good luck.

[edman5555]

Joe has been looking good lately but keep in mind that miller tore a muscle in his ankle during the nate fight and nate is no slouch. He has been looking great as well.

[poopoo333]

I will also be on Wineland tonight as well to win 5 or more units depending on the line. I love him in this fight and have felt this way since the fight was announced. I was just hoping to get him at + odds.

[Thewisemann]

Most of the lines are pretty similar here ( at mgm) as they are online. Some of the undercard isn't even up yet.

[Vandelay]

I like wineland as well. Think he is the superior striker and has some good tdd. I also like Costa alot.

[edman5555]

I cant make a decision on the costa boestche fight. I feel like its going to be really close. One thing Ive noticed about Costa is he tends to fight somewhat defensively. He doesn't go for takedowns and he pretty much only uses his hands. That doesn't mean that is all he will do in this fight but I wouldn't be suprised if that is all he did. That said, Okami was outboxing Boestche from what I understand. I barely watched the fight but it seemed that way. I think that gives Costa the edge standing. The only other thing I Can think of is Boestches wrestling. He should be the best wrestler Costa has fought so far. I could see Tim making something of his wrestling in this one.

I am thinking about betting Belcher. He sounds like he is really game. Okami is a beast. Aside from getting trounced by Anderson he has looked good for a long time.

Anyone notice Melvin was sticking his finger in Varners face? I know confidence is good but usually it is Guillards downfall.

[poopoo333]

I like Costa as well but Boetsch using his wrestling worries me. Phillipou showed great T3D against Fukuda though which shows he is improving.

[poopoo333]

As for Guillard at the weigh ins...that worries me. When he gets all hyped up like that for fights he ends up losing.

Also, I like Okami in this fight a lot. I believe he will end up at + odds by fight time so I will be putting a decent sized play on him. And by decent I mean pretty big. Going out of 2012 with a bang

[Vandelay]

Costa is pretty conservative in his fights which helps him stay upright. Boetsch's standup is average at best and his wrestling is more of a bullying style. Costa is strong as fuck and has withstood td attempts from mcgee, fukuda, and Rivera (i think). Anyway I dont think highly of Boetsch

[poopoo333]

Costa is pretty conservative in his fights which helps him stay upright. Boetsch's standup is average at best and his wrestling is more of a bullying style. Costa is strong as fuck and has withstood td attempts from mcgee, fukuda, and Rivera (i think). Anyway I dont think highly of Boetsch

See, for some reason I remember Rivera being able to take Costa down which scares me. Maybe I am wrong...

[edman5555]

all of costas fights have been relatively close.

[edman5555]

See, for some reason I remember Rivera being able to take Costa down which scares me. Maybe I am wrong...

He was able to take Costa down IIRC as well. That was something etched in my mind. Vandelay makes a good point about Costas ability to clinch and bully his opponents even though he has no wrestling experience and they have been former wrestlers. In the Rivera fight he was new to MMA and probably over extended himself.

[mike]

i had a couple units on Phillipou. He probably will edge Boetsch on the feet. He also defense the doubleleg td very well but what worries me is Boetsch does judo throws to get his opponents down alot. Phillipou also took this fight on short notice so dont know how much he could prepare for a guy like Boetsch. Also Boetsch will probably be throwing more strikes than Phillipou.

[edman5555]

Anyone know of a good fight video database? I used to go to allthebestfights but the ufc found them and shut them down for the most part.

[poopoo333]

mmaversus.com

[Vandelay]

Rivera got him down once in the fight after Phillipou burned himself out going for a finish. He was promptly put into a omoplata.

[edman5555]

I am trying to find boestche versus lombard and okami. MMAversus doesn't have them.

[mike]

i usually use fightnext.com but the fights on there died too.

[edman5555]

POLL: Am I crazy for thinking Leonard Garcia can beat Holloway?

[poopoo333]

POLL: Am I crazy for thinking Leonard Garcia can beat Holloway?

Yeah.

[edman5555]

Holloway got tapped in round 1 by Poirier, beat a much smaller and inexperienced figher in Schilling, then beat Justin Lawrence who is a good striker. That was impressive but he lost the first round of that fight on the judges scorecards and Lawrence is also a rookie. I'm just saying it could be close. Leonard fought Grice with a broken ankle, he lost 29-28 to nam phan who is very experienced and also a black belt in bjj, and he got beat by the Zombie who is tearing it up.

In his last interview I could get my hands on Leonard said he was letting himself go before and now he is back on track and taking his training seriously. Leonard is tough as nails, hard to knock out and always comes forward. Holloway has only had 7 pro fights.

I don't know. I hate not knowing. I will probably take a longshot bet on Garcia. He is way more experienced and capable of winning this fight. I think we argued about Holloway last time when I bet LAwrence and you were right then. Bad omen for me but I gotta win some time.

[poopoo333]

I just think the safe bet is with the guy with better technical striking that doesn't get into brawls against a brawler with punches that come from the waist.

[Svino]

I got 10u on Holloway at -400. (Actually, I only bet that much by accident, but still.)

[edman5555]

How much were you trying to bet?

[Svino]

6u

[mike]

-400 on Holloway is too high for me. i want to bet him by dec at -120 on 5dimes but i bet my whole account there on other fights already lol.

[edman5555]

yeah he isnt subbing garcia and he will probable have a tough time knocking him out.

[SPX]

I'm not sure Garcia gets finished, but I think Holloway's gonna be like a buzz saw, just shredding his ass for 3 rounds.

[edman5555]

I can see why you say that, regardless leonard garcia is on 5 dimes at 10 to 1. You know how garcia is with decisions.

[edman5555]

Garcia by decision that is.

[poopoo333]

I am kind of dreading UFC 155 tonight at the same time as being excited for it. My cousin is in town with his girlfriend and my girlfriend is sick so we are going to stay home and order the fight in the living room. My cousin's girlfriend does not shut the fuck up so I am going to try and get a drinking game going and make her pass out or something.A

Any tips? killing her isn't an option.

[edman5555]

Yes it is. Read that post about the bodybuilders spx put up the other day. Your a weightlifter, it should be easy.

[SPX]

Shoot that bitch up with heroin. She'll just sit in the corner and stare off into space.

[poopoo333]

I am dreading the moment two fighters are on the floor for a long period of time. "THEY AREN'T EVEN DOING ANYTHING!!"

[SPX]

Does she even know anything about MMA?

[SPX]

I can see why you say that, regardless leonard garcia is on 5 dimes at 10 to 1. You know how garcia is with decisions.

At 10 to 1 it's not a terrible bet but I just don't think it's gonna happen.

[edman5555]

At 10 to 1 it's not a terrible bet but I just don't think it's gonna happen.

Yeah I hear you but he has a knack for winning bullshit decisions so it's something to hope for.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah I hear you but he has a knack for winning bullshit decisions so it's something to hope for.

Sounds like you were right.

[SPX]

The funny thing is that it wouldn't even have been a bullshit decision.

If I had bet that prop I'd be SUPER pissed.

[MMA_scientist]

The funny thing is that it wouldn't even have been a bullshit decision.

If I had bet that prop I'd be SUPER pissed.

I didn't see it, but all 3 SD judges scored it for Holloway

[SPX]

Are you smoking crack? They all scored it 29-28 Garcia.

[MMA_scientist]

yeah, that's what I meant.

[edman5555]

Sounds like you were right.

at 10 to 1 it was a good bet. He almost pulled it off.

[poopoo333]

Yeah I'd be pissed if I bet that prop right now.

[poopoo333]

In Miller win, Byrd and Kamijo gave Lauzon R2. Morse Jarman gave him R3.


Dana White: haven't confirmed, but I heard Junior dos Santos broke his jaw in the second round


UFC 155 bonuses: Miller, Lauzon, Duffee, Moraga earn $65,000 awards

...

[SPX]

Dana just announced at the post-fight presser: Leonard Garcia is NOT cut!

[poopoo333]

Random thoughts and match ups I would like to see:

-I don't think it really changed the outcome of the fight, but JDS looked odd walking to the cage. He looked so tense and nervous, in the cage he was distracted by something on the ground...he just seemed very awkward and nervous overall. Did anybody else notice that? It's like when I saw all that shit, I got less nervous about my bet on Cain. Might just be me though.

-Cain vs Overeem if he beats Bigfoot. If Overeem loses, who fucking knows

-JDS will probably be out till summer, so I can't really make a prediction here. Probably Mark Hunt if he beats Struve.

-Jim Miller vs Gray Maynard II?

-Joe Lauzon vs Nate Diaz

-Costas Phillipou vs Hector Lombard

-Tim Boetsch vs Alan Belcher

-Chris Weidman vs Yushin Okami

-Todd Duffee vs Cheick Kongo

[Svino]

So the judge who scored the fight 30-27 for Guillard over Varner was Adalaide Byrd. Interestingly, she was not one of the judges who scored for Holloway or the one who scored for Pickett.

But I did see a Sherdog thread where the poster accused her of being a racist who always gives the win to the darker-skinned fighter, and it looks like boxing fans have been complaining about her a lot, too:

http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f44/adalaide-byrd-worst-judge-history-combat-sports-1493039/

[poopoo333]

http://i49.tinypic.com/1p84tw.jpg

[SPX]

Did Belcher knock Okami out for a second?


http://i.minus.com/iThe64rAI3xgC.gif

[poopoo333]

http://cdn2.cagepotato.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/jds_boetch.jpg

[SPX]

Apparently Lombard has been re-tweeting calls for him to fight Okami.

[poopoo333]

I hope it happens and Okami is + money again.

[SPX]

You don't think Lombard's T3D would be good enough to keep it on the feet?

[poopoo333]

I'm not even convinced Lombard would smoke Okami on the feet if that were the case..

[SPX]

Okami is a bit chinny, I think. He seems to get dropped or flustered a LOT when he gets hit. Or in the case of Boetsch, KTFOd.

That's not good against Lombard.

[edman5555]

http://cdn2.cagepotato.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/jds_boetch.jpg

God damm dos santos looks fucked up. I feel like a retard for doubting cain. He has that fucking dos antos nike t shirt on. God damn they overpaid for that shit, he looks horrible. That said, he has some fuckin heart and akedown defense. Way better than brock or anyone else cain fought. He was a tough ass champion. I will be inerested to see what comes about for junior dos santos.mmaybe he will be indervalued down the road because of this.

[SPX]

If he's the dog in a rematch I'll take him.

[edman5555]

I'm not even convinced Lombard would smoke Okami on the feet if that were the case..

Bet depends on odds. So close to call. Lombard was injured in the boetsch fight. Broken sternum. I think he could give okami trouble because his takedown defense and ground game are both stellar and standing he has a speed and power advantage. Okami may have a size advantage.

[Ludo]

Bet depends on odds. So close to call. Lombard was injured in the boetsch fight. Broken sternum. I think he could give okami trouble because his takedown defense and ground game are both stellar and standing he has a speed and power advantage. Okami may have a size advantage.

I don't think Lombard has the speed advantage here. He may have better strike timing but I'm not convinced he's a faster fighter overall. Okami is the better MMA grappler and possibly the better ground grappler straight up. Okami has the ability to wear on Lombard provided he doesn't get smoked in the first round.

[edman5555]

I don't think Lombard has the speed advantage here. He may have better strike timing but I'm not convinced he's a faster fighter overall. Okami is the better MMA grappler and possibly the better ground grappler straight up. Okami has the ability to wear on Lombard provided he doesn't get smoked in the first round.

Maybe your right, I'm not sure though. I always thought he was fast. Maybe my memory is off.

[poopoo333]

Torn cartilage round one, loss of vision round two, broken nose & tko'd round three. Not how I wanted to end 2012.

-Tim Boetsch

[edman5555]

-Tim Boetsch

Damn.

[SPX]

Damn, that sucks. I wonder if his vision is still fucked up now after the fight.

[Ludo]

http://imageshack.us/a/img69/4231/jdsface.gif

[SPX]

Damn, that's fucked up. Motherfucker straight up looked like the Toxic Avenger by the time that shit was done.

[Ludo]

http://i48.tinypic.com/25knb86.gif

[Mr. IWS]

LOL, good shit ludo

[edman5555]

LOL, good shit ludo

Yeah that one is the best.

[MMA_scientist]

lmao at that gif. I saw the JDS prgression before, but didn't expect the nog pic

[SPX]

Jamie Varner named Sherdog's Comeback Fighter of the Year.

[edman5555]

Jamie Varner named Sherdog's Comeback Fighter of the Year.

Warrented. He suprised the shit out of me. I knew he had the skillset to beat Guillard but I honestly did not believe it would happen. I am referring to the wrestling and jiu jitsu.

[SPX]

I figure it's a good choice, even though I have mixed feelings about actually liking that motherfucker.

[Ludo]

I don't really see a better candidate. He fights Barboza on short notice and knocks him out, fights a close contest with Lauzon before getting caught and subbed, then beats Guillard. Guillard may have been on a skid already but it's still impressive. I can't really think of anyone else who came back from so far down as Varner this year. Maybe Matt Brown? Though I think Brown would just qualify for most improved fighter of the year instead of comeback. He only lost one of his two fights last year.

[SPX]

I think Brown would qualify since he was 1-4 in his last 5 going into 2012. Then he was 4-0 in 2012. Sounds like a good case to me.