1-3-12

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

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Note:

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[Mr. IWS]

Dunkel

TUESDAY, JANUARY 3 Time Posted: 1:00 p.m. EST (12/11)

Game 259-260: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 102.697; Virginia Tech 105.078 Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 2 1/2; 55 Vegas Line: Michigan by 2 1/2; 51 Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+2 1/2); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Ethan Law

TUESDAY: 01/03/12
(2%) MICHIGAN -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

TUESDAY BOWL SELECTION
260 Virginia Tech (+2.5) over Michigan (8:30 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 3)

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Cokin
GOY
Va Tech

[Mr. IWS]

Double Dragon
VIRGINIA TECH +3 vs michigan

[Mr. IWS]

Doc Sports

#260 Take Virginia Tech Hokies +2.5 over Michigan Wolverines (Sugar Bowl, Tuesday, January 3rd, 8:30 pm ESPN)
Virginia Tech by 4

[Mr. IWS]

Earl Weston for Tuesday - NCAAB 5 units each:
Drake +15
Fordham +11.5
St. Johns +7.5

[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Tuesday’s Comp Play

NCAAF
Michigan vs Virginia Tech UNDER 51

[Mr. IWS]

*** PLATINUM SHEETS STATFOX ***

•SUGAR BOWL
MICHIGAN VS. VIRGINIA TECH
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Michigan seeks its fourth straight victory when it faces a Virginia Tech team fortunate to be in a BCS bowl after its 38-10 loss in the ACC Championship Game. The Wolverines will try to run the football on a usually tough Hokies run-stop unit that was bulldozed for 217 rushing yards against Clemson. QB Denard Robinson (97 rushing YPG) and RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (92 rushing YPG) have led Michigan to 738 rushing yards (246 YPG) in the past three weeks. The Hokies also have a tremendous ball carrier in David Wilson (125 rushing YPG, 7th in FBS) and has 10 games of at least 120 yards.

STATFOX FORECASTER: MICHIGAN 26, VIRGINIA TECH 22

[Mr. IWS]

*** MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK ***

*5-STAR PLAYBOOK GAME OF THE YEAR
VIRGINIA TECH OVER MICHIGAN BY 10
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While we don’t think the Hokies should be ranked ahead of ACC champ Clemson, we still feel Frank Beamer’s bunch is radically undervalued in this matchup. It’s true that Michigan is on its way back to elite status under the direction of first-year head coach Brady Hoke but Virginia Tech hasn’t exactly dropped out of sight, becoming the only team in college football to record 10 wins in each of the last eight seasons. In defense of Hoke, we’ll let you know that the last Michigan head coach to win 10 games in his first season with the Wolverines was Fielding Yost in 1901! But we’ll remind you once again that bowl favorites with first-year coaches are a notto-be-trusted 11-21-1 ATS. Michigan has really burned the money in today’s role, going 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 games versus an opponent with a winning record. And though you may counter by noting that the majority of those failures came under the departed Rich Rodriguez, Hoke is just 3-7 SU and ATS versus an opponent off SU favorite loss in his head coaching career.

More bad news for the Maize-and-Blue: ACC bowlers off a loss are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS against the Big Ten since 1997 and, best of all, ACC bowl dogs off a loss are a mind-boggling 14-2 ATS. We hate to invoke the name of Rich Rod again but the truth is the Wolverines have gone 9-20 SU and 6-21-1 ATS from Game Six out over the last four years, including 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS versus greater-than .800 foes. Amazingly, in a 25-year career with Hokies, this is only the second Big Ten adversary that Beamer will have faced (1-0 SU and ATS). In addition, coach Beamer shines in games against quality non-conference foes, going 23-8 ATS in his career when facing such a foe with a win percentage of .833. Better yet, as a favorite or dog of less than 3 points in these games he is 23-1 SU and 21-3 ATS. The clincher comes courtesy of our tireless database: bowlers who lost their conference championship game that allow 17.2 or less PPG are 7-0 ATS when not laying more than 6 points. In a game that pits Hoke against Hokies, we’ll stick with the latter and fade the Wolverines.

[Mr. IWS]

*** POINTWISE ***

•SUGAR BOWL
MICHIGAN vs. VIRGINIA TECH
TUESDAY, JANUARY 3 8:00 PM EST ESPN
------------------------------------
We love it when a pair of bonafide national gridiron powers meet for the very first time, which normally comes in a bowl contest. Such is the case in this very interesting match. For the Wolverines of Michigan, this marks their 41st bowl appearance (19-21 record), & for the Hokies (Gobblers) of Virginia Tech, their 25th such game, including each of the last 19 years. The Wolves, you will recall, made it to a bowl every year from 1975-2007 (33 consecutive years), before falling on hard times under Rich Rodriguez, posting 3-9 & 5-7 records in '08 & '09, before a 7-5 regular season log got them into the '10 Gator Bowl. But the die had already been cast. So Brady Hoke, who, in just his 2nd year, took SanDiegoSt to its 1st bowl game (& win) in 12 seasons.

A year ago, the Wolves could move it, behind QB Robinson, entering at the same 34 ppg as above. But they ranked 108th on "D", ceding 34+ pts in 7 of their final 8 regular games. That "D" comes in at 18th this year. Incredible. Robinson's '10 gaudy stats are down a bit, but check 2,056 PYs & 1,163 RYs, with Toussaint at 1,011 RYs, & Hemingway at 19.9 ypc. This marks the Hokies' 19th straight bowl campaign, as well as a national-best 8 straight years with at least 10 wins. But whereas they entered last year's Orange Bowl vs Stanford with a 10-2 spread record, they stand at just 3-9 in '11, tho those 3 covers were by an impressive 14½, 10, & 34 pts. But their 2 losses (both to Clemson: home & neutral) came by a combined score of 61-13. RB Wilson leads the ACC in rushing (1,627 yds, 9 TDs), but this isn't one of Tech's usual fearsome outfits. Oh, these two lost those '10 bowls by 40-12 & 52-14 counts. Oncoming Wolves are the play.

PROPHECY: MICHIGAN 33, Virginia Tech 23 RATING: *3-STAR
________________________________________________

•NBA BASKETBALL
----------------
Charlotte Bobcats 90 - CLEVELAND CAVS 84
OKLAHOMA CITY 106 - Portland Trailblazers 96
Sacramento Kings 98 - MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 97
CHICAGO BULLS 105 - Atlanta Hawks 104
UTAH JAZZ 106 - Milwaukee Bucks 95
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 101 - Houston 95

BEST BETS: OKLAHOMA CITY (4), UTAH
_______________________________

•COLLEGE BASKETBALL PROPHECY
-----------------------------
OHIO STATE 88 - Nebraska 60
SETON HALL 65 - Connecticut 64
WISCONSIN 73 - Michigan State 61
Louisville 77 - ST JOHNS 54
Harvard 79 - FORDHAM 60
WESTERN MICHIGAN 66 - Wisc-Milwaukee 56
KENTUCKY 90 - Ark-Little Rock 52
FLORIDA 83 - UAB 54
Cornell 72 - MARYLAND 67
CREIGHTON 71 - Drake 55
MISSOURI 85 - Oklahoma 62
Alabama 79 - GEORGIA TECH 74
MISSISSIPPI 70 - SMU 51

BEST BETS: WISCONSIN, LOUISVILLE, MISSISSIPPI

[Mr. IWS]

*** SPORTS REPORTER ***

•RECOMMENDED
VIRGINIA TECH OVER MICHIGAN by 6
----------------------------------
FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 30, MICHIGAN 24

[Mr. IWS]

*** WINNING POINTS ***

•SUGAR BOWL NEW ORLEANS
VIRGINIA TECH OVER MICHIGAN BY 3
---------------------------------
It was quite a turnaround for Michigan in the first season under Brady Hoke, and possibly the biggest single-season defensive upgrade we will ever see – from #107 in total defense and #102 in scoring defense last year to #18 and #7 in those categories this time around. And because of the pedigree of the program, they also got a favorable slotting into BCS territory, leap-frogging more deserving teams like Boise State around the nation, and Michigan State in their own conference. But is the cart ahead of the horse, not only in terms of the Wolverines being here, but also being favored? They will be making only their second bowl trip in the last four seasons, the other being that shattering 52-14 loss to Mississippi State on New Year’s Day last year. And they also had a favorable scheduling draw, not having to face Wisconsin in the Big 10, and catching Nebraska and Ohio State at home down the stretch. Now they take on a team that will be most comfortable in this setting, with the Hokies in a BCS game for the fourth time in five years. Tech has the speed on defense to keep Denard Robinson in the pocket, and when you do that the Michigan offense becomes containable, while Logan Thomas and David Wilson provide the Hokies with outstanding offensive balance.

VIRGINIA TECH 27, MICHIGAN 24

[Mr. IWS]

What Bettors Need to Know: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech

Michigan Wolverines vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (3, 51)

SUGAR BOWL STORYLINES

1. This will be the first BCS bowl game for No. 12 Michigan since the 2007 Rose Bowl, when it lost to USC. Virginia Tech is making its fourth BCS bowl appearance in five years.

2. Michigan and Virginia Tech rank seventh and eighth nationally in scoring defense, allowing 17.17 and 17.23 points per game respectively.

3. The schools, which are meeting for the first time, both sport losing bowl records. Michigan is 19-21 all-time, losing five of its last six bowl games, while Virginia Tech is 9-15. The Hokies lost to Stanford, 40-12, in the Orange Bowl last season.

4. Virginia Tech kicker Tyler Weiss was sent home for violating a team curfew prior to the Hokies' Sugar Bowl game against Michigan. Weiss failed to be present for a 1 a.m. bed check in New Orleans on Thursday, team spokesman Bryan Johnston said. Weiss was scheduled to play in the contest after kicker Cody Journell was arrested last week for his alleged involvement in a home invasion. Justin Myer, the team's kickoff specialist, is expected to handle field goal attempts. He has missed his only two field goal tries this season.

LINE: The Sugar Bowl's line has been all over the place. Some books opened with Virginia Tech favored by a point, but steady action on the Wolverines now has Michigan set at -3 at most shops with a few -2.5's littering the board as of Monday evening. The total is holding at 51 points.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (10-2, 6-2 Big Ten): The Wolverines owe much of this year's revival to an improved, disruptive defense that ranks among the nation's best in several categories. Senior LB Brandon Herron has two of the unit's three touchdowns, returning a fumble and an interception for scores. Junior QB Denard Robinson (1,163 yards rushing, 16 TD) and sophomore RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (1,011 yards, 9 TD) have excelled behind an offensive line that features All-American C David Molk, the Rimington Trophy winner.

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (11-2, 7-1 ACC): The Hokies, who have been perfect this season against teams not named Clemson, rank just 12th nationally in total yardage allowed (313.9). Junior RB David Wilson is the headliner on offense, ranking 12th nationally with 1,627 yards rushing (125.2 per game) and scoring 10 total touchdowns. Junior QB Logan Thomas has thrown for 2,799 yards and 19 touchdowns while rushing for 416 yards and 10 more scores.

TRENDS:

- The over is 10-1 in Michigan's last 11 bowl games.
- Virginia Tech is 3-9 against the spread in its last 12 overall.
- Michigan is 8-20 against the spread in its last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.

PREDICTION: Michigan 20, Virginia Tech 14 -- Look for the dynamic Robinson to give the Wolverines a slight edge and cap Brady Hoke's first year as head coach in fine fashion.