9-18-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

Don’t be afraid to post services if you come across any. Anything you contribute will be appreciated, and your user reputation will grow (the green dots under your name.)

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob
2* Jets
2* Seahawks
2* 49ers
Opinion: Panthers
Opinion: Eagles
Opinion: Cards/Redskins (UNDER)
Lean: 49ers/Cowboys (UNDER)
Lean: Chiefs
Lean: Lions/Chiefs (UNDER)
Lean: Bucs
Lean: Bucs/Vikings (UNDER)
Lean: Saints
Lean: Saints/Bears (UNDER)
Lean: Bills
Lean: Raiders/Bills (UNDER)
Lean: Browns/Colts (UNDER)
Lean: Ravens
Lean: Dolphins
Lean: Texans/Dolphins (OVER)
Lean: Patriots/Chargers (UNDER)
Lean: Bengals
Lean: Broncos/Bengals (UNDER)
Lean: Giants
Lean: Giants/Rams (UNDER)

[timbob]

Root

Mill SF
No Limit Atlanta
Pinnacle Tenn NFL play of September
Fortune 500 Miami
Billionaires NO
Perfect Play San Diego

[timbob]

Ben Burns

10* Saints
10* Bucs / Vikings Under
10* Falcons
9* Chiefs
9* Titans
9* 49ers

[Chico1856]

LANG


75 Dimer

Redskins -3 (buy the hook he said) vs. Arizona (1:00pm EST)

40 Dimer
Lions -8 vs. Chiefs (1:00pm EST)

20 Dimer
Tampa +3 vs. Vikings (1:00pm EST)

20 Dimer

Colts +2 vs. Browns (1:00pm EST)

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al 9-18
Seahawks +14
Chargers +7
Broncos -3.5
Eagles -1.5

Rays MLB

[Mr. IWS]

PPP for Sunday

5% Buffalo
4% New Orleans
4% Dallas
3% Washington
3% San Diego
2% Atlanta
4% Over Dallas
4% Over Miami
3% Over Detroit
3% Over Washington
3% Under Indy
2% Under Atlanta

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 10* 28-Club Play-NFL ('signature release')
My 10* 28-Club Play is on the Atl Falcons at 8:25 ET.

The marquee game of Week 2 is probably the Chargers at the Patriots but the game easily garnering the most interest is NBC’s Sunday night game, featuring the Eagles (now led by Michael Vick) visiting Atlanta to meet the Falcons, the team which drafted Vick and of course, was the team he was playing for when all his off-the-field troubles turned him into one of the NFL’s most polarizing figures. EVERYONE knows the “Michael Vick saga” and while Vick was a member of the Eagles when Philly came to Atlanta in 2009, he was just beginning his “climb back,” being used only sparingly as a backup to Donovan McNabb. The Eagles won 35-7 back in that 2009 game but Vick attempted just two passes (completed both, including one for a TD) and ran four times for 17 yards (plus another TD). The Falcons played in Philly again last year but they didn't have to worry about Vick in that game, as he missed the game while nursing injured ribs. Kevin Kolb shredded Atlanta's defense for 326 yards and three TDs in a 31-17 Eagles win in Philadelphia. However, the set-up for this game is very different, with Vick center stage! Vick comes in having just signed a new $100 million contract and few teams (if any) have higher expectations in 2011 than his Eagles. Vick started slowly last Sunday in St Louis and while he completed only 14-of-32 passes for a modest 187 yards, he did throw two TD passes without an interception. He also had 97 yards rushing on just 11 carries, helping Philly run for 236 yards (7.4 YPC) for the game. The Falcons finished 13-3 during last year’s regular season, earning the NFC’s No. 1 seed. However, the Falcons were routed by the Packers in the divisional round, losing 48-21 in Atlanta, where the Falcons had gone 7-1 SU during the regular season. Atlanta went winless in the preseason this August and then lost 30-12 last Sunday to the Bears. RB Turner ran for 100 yards and QB Matt Ryan threw for 319 but the Falcons did not score an offensive TD, with its lone TD coming on a 50-yard interception return in the fourth quarter. I believe it’s safe to say this an important game for the Falcons, who are much more worried about following an 0-4 preseason with an 0-2 start to the regular season, than the team is concerned with who is playing QB for the opposition. Atlanta will play three of its next five games at the Georgia Dome, where head coach Mike Smith has led his team to an impressive 20-4 record in his first three years as Atlanta's head coach. “Matty Ice,” as he’s been nicknamed, is an incredible 20-2 as a starter in regular season home games for the Falcons. As mentioned, Ryan had over 300 yards passing LW but didn’t throw a TD, breaking a streak of 15 consecutive games with at least one TD pass. He did throw an INT and was sacked five times. Let me note here, something VERY significant. Ryan had a 22-4 TD-to-INT ratio on turf last year, while only a 6-5 one in games played on grass fields. In his career (three years worth of data!), Ryan has NEVER had a QB rating of 80.0-plus on grass and last week in Soldier Field was no different (76.5). Things will be different in this one. The Eagles have a first-year defensive coordinator in Juan Castillo and his unit produced five sacks, forced a fumble that was returned for a touchdown and held Rams QB Sam Bradford to 188 yards on 17-of-30 passing. That’s an impressive opening but the Eagles will face an Atlanta team here almost in a “must-win” situation, despite the fact it’s just Week 2. The Eagles showed quite a vulnerability against the run vs St Louis, even with Steven Jackson leaving the game after just two carries (had 56 yards!) because of an injury. However, Cadillac Williams picked up where Jackson left off, gaining 91 yards on 19 carries. (St Louis had 154 yards rushing on 5.9 YPC). RB Turner led the NFC with 1,371 rushing yards in 2010 while accounting for 39 rushing TDs since 2008 (2nd-most in the NFL in that span). When Turner gets going, Ryan becomes even more effective. His 33-13 record as an NFL starter in his first three seasons tied him with Dan Marino for the most wins by a QB in his first three seasons since 1970 (year of the merger). Ryan has outstanding weapons in WR Roddy White, who set single-season club records for most receptions (an NFL-best 115) and receiving yards (an NFC-best 1,389) last season plus veteran TE Tony Gonzalez, who had 70 receptions and is the only player in league history with 60-plus catches in 12 consecutive seasons. There is also rookie WR Julio Jones from Alabama, who caught five passes for 71 yards in his NFL debut at Chicago. I’m not 100 percent sold on the Eagles being the “Dream Team” Vince Young coined them. The Eagles have 20 new players, including three different OL starters. This Atlanta defense will be ‘fired up’ and let’s not forget the Philly OL allowed 49 sacks last year, despite Vick’s mobility (allowed three vs StL last Sunday). I also won’t ignore Atlanta’s terrific home record under head coach Smith and QB Matt Ryan. This is a “big one” for this current team and maybe even a bigger one for the fans. That combo, blended in with a little Sunday Night TV ‘magic,’ sets the stage for a convincing Atlanta win.

Good luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 10* NFL Week 2 Total (16-4, 80% with 10* NFL 2010 totals)
My 10* NFL Week 2 Total is on TB/Min Over at 1:00 ET.

The Bucs went from 3-13 in 2009 (the year Raheem Morris replaced Jon Gruden) to 10-6 last year, missing out on the NFC’s No. 6 seed only by losing a tie-breaker to the Packers (guess how the 2010 postseason turned out for Green Bay?). However, the Bucs won just one game vs a team with a winning record last year and that victory deserves an asterisk, as it came against the Saints in Week 17 with New Orleans resting many of its starters. The Bucs are one of the NFL’s youngest teams and Morris is the league's youngest coach. However, Morris may just be better than almost all anticipated. For sure, QB Josh Freeman is. He played in 10 games as a rookie in 2009, completing a poor 54.5 percent with a 10-18 TD-to-INT ratio and a QB rating of only 59.8. However, he started all 16 games last year, completing 61.4 percent for 3,451 yards with 25 TDs and just six INTs with a 95.9 QB rating, which ranked sixth in the NFL. RB Blount was signed off the Tennessee practice squad six days before the opening of the 2010 season and it was considered a questionable move, with his off-the-field issues. Bottom line though is that he delivered, rushing for 1,007 yards (5.0 YPC). However, the Bucs were not up to taking on the up-and-coming Lions in Week 1 at home. The Bucs fell behind 24-13 and after the fact, Morris said he may have gone to the hurry-up offense too early. Josh Freeman completed a career-high 28 passes in 43 attempts for 259 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The problem was the rushing game, which had just 56 yards on 16 attempts (the Bucs ranked eighth in the league in rushing yards per game with 125.1 in 2010). Blount had just five attempts all game (gaining 15 yards), FOUR in the first half. That’s unacceptable when one realizes that when Blount ran for 57 or more yards last season, the Bucs were 7-2. The Vikings opened their 2011 season in San Diego. Percy Harvin returned the opening KO 103 yards for a TD and following a long run by A.P, McNabb’s short TD pass gave Minnesota a 17-7 lead early in the second quarter. However, the Vikes were abysmal the rest of the way, gaining only 21 yards in the second half (two FDs) while getting held scoreless. The Chargers would win 24-17, as McNabb, in his Minnesota debut, completed 7-of-15 for 39 yards (net 28 yards passing!). The 39 yards represented the fewest amount of passing yards by a Minnesota QB in a game since 1971. Peterson was signed to a ‘monster’ contract prior to Week 1 and on just 16 attempts, gained 98 yards. McNabb, who has NEVER gotten his just due (he’s led teams to FIVE conference championship games in his career), has been ‘crucified’ this past week. However, I’m expecting a big ‘bounce-back’ game from this guy. McNabb’s seen Tampa's patented Cover 2 scheme plenty of times over his long career and let’s not forget that Stafford threw for 305 yards with three TDs against Tampa in Week 1. The Bucs’ D had just 26 sacks last season (tied for 30th) and didn’t get a sack vs the Lions in Stafford’s attempts. The Tampa Bay rush D allowed 131.7 YPG last year (28th) and 4.7 YPC, so why WON’T A.P. (has averaged just under 1,500 rushing yards per season in his first four years in the league, 4.8 YPC and has rushed for 52 TDs) have a big game vs a smallish Tampa Bay front (on turf!). The Minnesota defense is without three starters on the defensive line from last year (DT Kevin Williams is still suspended) and while the pass D ranked a respectable 10th in yards allowed last year, it gave up 62.9 percent completions along with 25 TDs against just 15 INTs. Rivers had 335 passing yards vs Minnesota last week and I expect Josh Freeman to be just fine against this pass D, as well. He’s got two decent WRs in Mike Williams (4-50 yards, 1 TD vs SD) and Arrelious Benn (4 receptions in Week 1) plus TE Kellen Winslow has two seasons of 80-plus catches to his credit and had six catches for 66 yards vs the Chargers. This game goes over easily!

Good luck...Larry