8-22-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

NFL NEWS AND NOTES
Bears at Giants: What Bettors Need To Know
By Ashton Grewal


Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-4.5, 35)
STARTER REPORT

BEARS: Head coach Lovie Smith didn’t reveal his plan for playing time for his starters but Sean Jensen, Bears beat reporter for the Chicago Sun-Times, guessed Smith will play his first-string offense 20 to 25 snaps.

GIANTS: Giants coach Tom Coughlin said his offensive starters would get between 25 and 30 snaps in Monday’s game against the Bears, according to the Newark Star-Ledger.

QB Depth Chart

Eli Manning will start under center for the Giants but Sage Rosenfels will not be the first QB off the pine. Rosenfels, who looked good in the Giants’ first preseason game, is recovering from strep throat and won’t suit up.

That means David Carr and Ryan Perrilloux will split the rest of the offensive snaps. Carr was signed this month after getting cut by the 49ers. Perrilloux is a rookie out of Jacksonville State but was once a starter with LSU.

The Bears will open with Jay Cutler, with backup Caleb Hanie expected to run the show next. Reports indicate rookie fifth-round pick Nathan Enderle is pushing Hanie for the No. 2 spot on the depth chart.

Line Dancing

Chicago hopes to see better play from its offensive line after giving up nine sacks during last week’s 10-3 win over the Buffalo Bills. Bears lineman Frank Omiyale told the Sun-Times that he and his teammates should fare better against the Giants because they play a base 4-3 front whereas the Bills used a 3-4 last weekend.

Still, bettors haven’t forgotten what happened the last time these two faced each other last October. The Giants sacked Cutler nine times in the first half en route to an easy 17-3 victory.

Reports out of camp aren’t promising for Chicago’s offensive line. According to the Sun-Times, the unit was embarrassed on Friday in 2-on-1 blocking drills.
There is one bit of good news for the Bears. Giants defensive end and sack specialist Osi Umenyiora is on the shelf after undergoing knee surgery.

Thing To Remember

The Chicago Bears finished 31st in offense and allowed the most sacks last preseason, according to the Chicago Tribune. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five exhibition games.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Monday's Best NFL Bets

Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-4.5, 35)

Monday Night Football picks are back here at Bang the Book, and we’re here with another great NFL betting showdown to preview in the preseason between the New York Giants and the Chicago Bears.

The first week of the preseason was pretty much a par for the course type of game. The Bears used a fantastic defensive effort to pick up the slack for a terrible offense to pick up a 10-3 victory. The only score came when QB Caleb Hanie rumbled for four yards and a TD in the second quarter. Needless to say, the offensive numbers were, for lack of a better term, offensive. QB Jay Cutler completed just one pass for no yards before leaving the game, and Hanie only went 3-of-7 for 32 yards. Former Idaho Vandal QB Nathan Enderle went 7-of-10 for 110 yards, but he couldn’t get the team in the end zone and was picked off once. The only bright spots came on the ground. RBs Kahlil Bell and Harvey Unga did well, combining for 22 carries and 100 yards, while the newly acquired RB Marion Barber had seven carries for 45 yards as he fights for his spot in the backfield this year alongside names like Chester Taylor and Matt Forte. The defense allowed just 13 first downs and 190 total yards in the game.

Normally speaking, losing to the Carolina Panthers is a bad sign, but with last week being the first week of the preseason, Head Coach Tom Coughlin has to be breathing a bit easier. Still, losses to teams like Carolina isn’t good for a squad’s psyche, and you have to figure that New York is going to come out with guns blazing this week. The offense was embarrassingly bad for the G-Men in NFLX Week 1, as the unit only accounted for one field goal in the 20-10 loss. LB Michael Boley had the only score when he raced a pick by QB Jimmy Clausen back 56 yards for a TD. QB Eli Manning wasn’t asked to do much, as he went just 4-of-9 for 36 yards before getting the hook. The majority of the middle of the game belonged to QB Sage Rosenfels. Rosenfels has a lot of experience in the preseason, and it showed. He went 13-of-19 for 129 yards, but he was sacked twice and only mustered one field goal out of all of his work. QB Ryan Perrilloux is battling to make the team this year, and he went 5-of-9 for 67 yards. Carolina’s defense was fairly dreadful last season, and the hope is that Coughlin and company can expect better this week.

Chicago Bears @ New York Giants Pick: Still, we have a heck of a problem laying 4.5 points with an offense that mustered only three against a 2-14 team from a year ago. Sure, the Bears’ offense is bad, but it’s not this bad that the team should get beaten by more than a TD in this one more than the half the time.

PICK: Bears +4.5

[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
MLB: Braves Head To Wrigley, Join Cubs Party
By Joey Nowack


Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs (115, NA)

Jair Jurrjens is back in the Braves' rotation. Now, all he needs is to return to pre-All-Star break form.

The right-hander, who was roughed up in his first outing back from the disabled list on Wednesday against the Giants, will take the hill again for the Braves on Monday against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.

Jurrjens was 12-3 with a sterling 1.87 ERA before the All-Star break. He hasn't won since, and owns an ERA of 6.52 in that time.

"I was a little rusty," Jurrjens said after his first start off the DL, a 7-5 loss to the Giants. "I hadn't faced a live hitter for a couple days. That might have did that. But there's no excuses. I just didn't make my adjustments when I needed to make my adjustments."

The Braves, though, have done just fine without Jurrjens lately. Atlanta, having won 13 of its last 17, owned a season-high 8 1/2-game lead in the National League Wild Card standings after their win Sunday afternoon, and are a season-high 24 games over .500. The last time they were that far above .500 was Oct. 3, 2004, when they finished the season 96-66.

The Braves will be up against Chicago's Ryan Dempster, who is more than happy to take the hill at Wrigley. The right-hander is 6-5 with a 3.71 ERA this year at home, compared to 4-3 with a 5.85 ERA on the road.

He's had trouble against the Braves, however, with a 2-11 record in 28 career games (17 starts) and a 4.76 ERA.

Dempster exited his last start -- an eventual Cubs loss -- without a decision, but was taxed to the tune of 117 pitches, two short of a season high.

"I didn't make it easy on myself early," Dempster said afterward. "I just tried to keep making pitches and see if I could get some quick outs."

Cubs: Holding It Down
Sean Marshall recorded another hold out of the bullpen on Saturday, boosting his total to 27, which is the franchise's top single-season mark by a lefty.

Carlos Marmol owns the overall single-season club record, tallying 30 in 2008.

Braves: Homer Happy
• After going yard twice on Saturday night, Braves second baseman Dan Uggla needs just one more home run to extend his own Major League record for 30-homer seasons by a second baseman (he's done it four times already).

• Braves catcher Brian McCann is no stranger to home runs, himself, having hit his 20th homer of the season on Friday to reach his fifth 20-homer season of his seven-year career. It's his fourth consecutive year with 20 long balls.

Worth Noting
• The Braves and the National League East rival Phillies are the only two clubs in the Majors who have not been swept in a series of three or more games this year.

The last time the Braves were swept in a three-game set was Sept. 20-22, 2010, in Philadelphia.

• Aramis Ramirez is batting .472 with four homers and 10 RBIs over the course of an eight-game hitting streak entering Sunday. Heading into the series finale with the Cardinals, he needed just one more homer to become just the fourth player in Cubs history to record at least six seasons with 25 doubles and 25 homers.

[Mr. IWS]

Monday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Zack Greinke (12-4, 3.92 ERA), Milwaukee Brewers

Baseball bettors know there are two profitable situations to back the Brewers: When the club is playing at home (47-16) and whenever staff ace Zack Greinke takes the hill.

Milwaukee is 15-5 on days Greinke toes the rubber and is 5-0 in his last five starts, including last week's 3-1 win over the Dodgers.

"It wasn't a great outing, but I made big pitches when they needed to be made," Greinke told AP reporters after the game.

Carl Pavano (6-9, 4.52 ERA), Minnesota Twins

This isn't a confident salute to Pavano. Mostly, we just didn't feel the need to mention to smart baseball bettors that Justin Verlander is unhittable.

Pavano is very hittable. Opponents are hitting .294 off of him this season and he carries a bloated 1.69 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) since July 26. But he still has allowed just five runs in his last three starts (22 1/3 innings), so you never know. Maybe the mustached man has a late-season charge in him yet.

SLUMPING

Jason Vargas (7-11, 4.37 ERA), Seattle Mariners

This right-handed hurler is enduring a painful summer. Vargas is 1-6 in his last eight starts and owns a 7.39 ERA over his last seven appearances.

He gave up eight runs on seven hits and four walks in his most recent outing, a 13-7 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays.

Jair Jurrjens (12-5, 2.84 ERA), Atlanta Braves

It took a little while but this righty finally hit a bump in the road in an otherwise career-best season.

After floating along with an ERA under 2.25 for much of the campaign, Jurrjens has surrendered four or more runs in four of his last five starts.

The over is also 5-1 in his last six outings and he owns a 6.21 ERA over that span.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Monday's Best MLB Bets

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, Game 1 (107, 8.5)

Pardon the pun: we’re going to buck the trend and go with the Bucs against the red-hot Brewers.

We know the Pirates can’t win in Miller Park; that’s been proven over and over. But this game is at PNC Park, and Pittsburgh starter Jeff Karstens has been remarkably consistent.

He’s given up three runs or less in all but one start since April 17. In his only start against the Brewers this season, Karstens allowed two runs over five innings.

Milwaukee starter Chris Narveson (cut thumb) hasn’t pitched since August 6. He’s 2-4 with a 5.11 ERA on the road this season. Pittsburgh center fielder Andrew McCutchen is 5-for-13 (.385) against Narveson.

PICK: Pirates


Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs (115, NA)

Jair Jurrjens isn’t himself yet.

In his first start since coming off the DL with a strained right knee, the Braves All-Star gave up five runs on eight hits over six innings against the light-hitting Giants. He only struck out one.

His ERA has risen nearly a full run over the last six weeks. Now Jurrjens faces the Cubs, who had won seven of 10 heading into Sunday night’s game against the Cardinals.

Chicago starter Ryan Dempster has strung together three outstanding starts, allowing five earned runs over 20 innings while fanning 18.

Braves catcher Brian McCann is 0-for-10 with three strikeouts in his career against Dempster.

PICK: Cubs

[Mr. IWS]

Monday's Betting Tips: Red Sox Are Road Warriors

Who’s Hot

NFL: The Under is 3-0 in the Bears’ last three preseason games.

MLB: The Tigers are 8-1 in Justin Verlander’s last nine starts against winning teams.

MLB: The Red Sox are 39-18 in their last 57 road games.

Who’s Not

NFL: The Giants are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four preseason games.

MLB: The Dodgers are 1-7 in their last eight games against winning teams.

MLB: The Rockies are 1-9 in Jhoulys Chacin's last 10 starts.

Key Stat

91st – That’s where nominal Seahawks starter Tarvaris Jackson ranks in passer rating after two preseason games. He has a 45.0 rating while averaging a miniscule 3.4 yards per attempt. Whether coach Pete Carroll sticks with Jackson or goes with Charlie Whitehurst, the defending NFC West champs are major fade material.

Injury Not To Be Overlooked

The Giants put closer Brian Wilson on the 15-day DL Sunday with inflammation and a mild flexor strain in his throwing elbow. Wilson, 29, is 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA and 35 saves in 40 chances. Jeremy Affeldt might get a chance to close in the absence of Wilson, who’s eligible to come off the DL on Aug. 31. Sergio Romo would have gotten the job, but he’s also on the DL with elbow inflammation.

Game Of The Day

Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-4.5, 35.5)

Notable Quotable

"There is no good loss, that's for sure. The good thing is there's a week, eight days to the start of the Open. I'm confident I can recover and be ready for the U.S. Open." – Novak Djokovic after retiring with a sore right shoulder in the second set in Sunday’s final at the Western & Southern Open. The loss ended Djokovic’s 16-match winning streak. The U.S. Open starts next Monday.

Tips And Notes

Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins had to leave Sunday’s game against the Nationals after straining his right groin making a play up the middle. He is day to day. Rollins is hitting .269 with 14 homers, 58 RBIs and 28 steals for the first-place Phils.

A middle-of-the-pack defense against the run, New Orleans went out and signed DT Aubrayo Franklin. The 6-1, 317-pounder was an outstanding run-stuffer the past four years with the 49ers. But in Saturday night’s loss to the Texans, Franklin sprained his MCL. Now he has less than three weeks to recover for the Saints’ Sept. 8 opener at Green Bay.

Red Sox DH David Ortiz (right heel) hopes to return at some point during Boston’s four-game series at Texas, which starts Monday. Big Papi took batting practice on Sunday, and Monday he’ll be out of his walking boot and cleared to run. Outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who has missed two games with a back contusion, could return Monday night.

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher

Play of the Day:
Bears +4.5 over Giants

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher

Play of the Day:
Indians -155 over Mariners

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Tigers Sunday.

Monday it's the Tigers. The deficit is 2571 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo lost the hard way with the Tribe yesterday -- on a flyout/throwout DP that ended it and raised the DPOs (dead presidents owed) to 2,035 otts.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will take a shot with Carl "The American Idle" Pavano, mainly because Britton's ERA seems a whisker on the high side of late -- 20 units on the Twins. Also, he expects an investment on the red-hot Rays to be beneficial -- 20 units on Niemann.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play MONDAY

Red Sox/Rangers under 9

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

Arizona at Washington

The Diamondbacks look to build on their 6-0 record in their last 6 games as a favorite. Arizona is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, AUGUST 22 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (5:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Narveson) 14.969; Pittsburgh (Karstens) 15.533 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+100); Over

Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (8:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Greinke) 16.969; Pittsburgh (Lincoln) 14.533 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-200); 8 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-200); Under

Game 955-956: NY Mets at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 14.518; Philadelphia (Lee) 16.365 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 6 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-220); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-220);

Game 957-958: Arizona at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Saunders) 15.249; Washington (Detwiler) 14.420 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-115); Over

Game 959-960: Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.508; Cubs (Dempster) 14.712 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-125); N/A

Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Eovaldi) 15.573; St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.667 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 7 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Under

Game 963-964: Houston at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 15.668; Colorado (Chacin) 14.250 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 10 1/2 Vegas Line: Colorado (-210); 9 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+180); Over

Game 965-966: Seattle at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 14.523; Cleveland (Carmona) 14.833 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-160); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-160); Under

Game 967-968: Detroit at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.732; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.664 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 7 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+130); Over

Game 969-970: Boston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Bedard) 16.661; Texas (Wilson) 15.829 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 9 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+120); Under

Game 971-972: Baltimore at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Britton) 13.892; Minnesota (Pavano) 14.296 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-135); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Today's NFL Picks

Chicago at NY Giants

The Bears look to follow up their 10-3 win over Buffalo in Week 1 as they hit the road against the Giants. Chicago is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4). Here are all of this week's picks.

MONDAY, AUGUST 22 Time Posted: 4:00 p.m. EST (8/16)

Game 431-432: Chicago at NY Giants (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 119.434; NY Giants 120.241 Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 31 Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4; 35 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4); Under

[Mr. IWS]

MLB
Write-Up


Monday, August 22

Hot pitchers
-- Greinke is 5-0, 1.59 in his last five starts. Lincoln allowed two runs in six IP in his only '11 start, at Washington.
-- Lee is 4-0, 1.75 in his last four starts.
-- Dempster is 3-0, 2.77 in his last four starts.
-- Carpenter is 2-0, 2.49 in his last three starts. Eovaldi is 1-1, 2.12 in three starts for the Dodgers.

-- Carmona is 2-2, 3.29 in his last six starts.
-- Verlander is 6-0, 2.76 in his last six starts. Niemann is 4-0, 2.05 in his last four starts.
-- Wilson is 2-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Narveson had a 4.77 RA in his last three starts before going on DL after a freak clubhouse injury (cut left hand fixing his glove). Karstens is 1-2, 6.15 in his last six starts.
-- Saunders is 0-2, 7.27 in his last three starts. Detwiler is 0-3, 3.38 in his last three starts.
-- Gee has a 5.08 RA in his last five starts.
-- Jurrjens is 0-2, 6.52 in his last five starts.
-- Myers is 0-6, 5.40 in his last ten starts. Chacin is 1-2, 5.29 in his last three starts.

-- Vargas is 1-6, 7.63 in his last eight starts.
-- Bedard is 0-2, 4.50 in three starts for Boston.
-- Britton is 0-3, 32.70 (yes, 32.70) in his last three starts. Pavano is 0-3, 6.09 in his last seven starts.

Totals
-- Over is 12-4 in last sixteen games at PNC Park.
-- Eight of last twelve Washington games stayed under total.
-- Four of Gee's last five starts went over the total.
-- Under is 10-4-1 in last fifteen games at Wrigley Field.
-- Nine of last twelve Dodger road games stayed under the total.
-- Six of Chacin's last seven home starts went over the total.

-- Under is 6-1-1 in Carmona's last eight starts.
-- Seven of last nine Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 9-4 in Rangers' last thirteen games.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Britton starts.

Hot Teams
-- Milwaukee won 22 of its last 24 games.
-- Phillies won 16 of their last 21 games.
-- Washington won eight of its last eleven home games.
-- Astros won four of their last five games.
-- Braves won 13 of their last 17 games. Cubs won nine of their last 12 games at Wrigley.

-- Tampa Bay won ten of its last twelve games.
-- Red Sox won eight of their last twelve road games.
-- Angels won their last four games, scoring 26 runs.

Cold Teams
-- Cardinals lost four of their last six games.
-- Mets lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Pirates lost 12 of their last 17 home games.
-- Arizona lost its last five games, scoring six runs.
-- Dodgers lost six of their last eight road games.
-- Colorado is 6-8 in its last fourteen home games.

-- Seattle lost 20 of its last 23 road games.
-- Rangers lost three of their last four games.
-- Baltimore lost 20 of its last 25 road games. Twins lost 11 of their last 14 home games.