4-21-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

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[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan
400 Rays
100 Bosox -105 (list beckett)
100 heat

[Mr. IWS]

DAVID MALINSKY


4* ST. LOUIS/WASHINGTON OVER 8.5

An afternoon game after a double-header can often mean major headaches in terms of laying out a pitching rotation. And that is exactly what we have here. So with the markets giving Tom Gorzelanny and Kyle Lohse more respect than they deserve, we have excellent value in a game that does not require an offensive explosion to get us in the money.

In an afternoon setting, we start our bullpen fatigue ratings with anyone that threw more than 20 pitches the previous day, or worked more than one full inning. That flags Chad Gaudin, Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen and Colin Balester for Washington, and Fernando Salas, Ryan Franklin, Jason Motte and Eduardo Sanchez for St. Louis. Let’s also put an * next to current Cardinal closer Mitchell Boggs, who threw 15 pitches in the night-cap, and has not worked in a back-to-back setting yet this season.

That takes us to the Gorzelanny/Lohse matchup, and there are holes to be found. Gorzelanny is off to an 0-1/5.56 start in which getting the ball down in the strike zone has been a major problem – he has already been tagged for three HR’s over 11.1 frames, with an alarming count of 11 fly-ball outs vs. only three on the ground. With his command nothing special (38.3 percent of his pitches have missed the strike zone), he is not a likely candidate to work deeply here, which brings that weakened National bullpen into play.

Meanwhile Lohse is getting a lot of respect off of his 2-1/2.82 opening, with solid peripherals, but his stuff is such that extended strong periods are rare. Without the kind of velocity to miss bats he has to pitch to contact, and many times what looks like a positive cycle is actually a case of the geometry of the game playing well for him. Here is the best way to break him down. We have a category called “Good” starts, those being games in which a pitcher worked six IP or more, and allowed two ER or less (if the unearned count gets too high, sometimes we will scratch the game from the list). Lohse has had nine such games qualify the last three seasons, and off of the first eight his ensuing start worked to an awful 1-6/9.49. Now he is off of back-to-back “good” outings, and extending to a third is asking a lot for a guy with his limitations. Admittedly injuries played a pair in his 2009-10 showings, and he is healthy now, but he is a journeyman that has posted an ERA of less than 4.18 once in 10 career seasons. This game is being priced on his recent statistical form, and history shows us that he can not maintain that.

[Mr. IWS]

DAVID MALINSKY


4* ST. LOUIS/WASHINGTON OVER 8.5

An afternoon game after a double-header can often mean major headaches in terms of laying out a pitching rotation. And that is exactly what we have here. So with the markets giving Tom Gorzelanny and Kyle Lohse more respect than they deserve, we have excellent value in a game that does not require an offensive explosion to get us in the money.

In an afternoon setting, we start our bullpen fatigue ratings with anyone that threw more than 20 pitches the previous day, or worked more than one full inning. That flags Chad Gaudin, Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen and Colin Balester for Washington, and Fernando Salas, Ryan Franklin, Jason Motte and Eduardo Sanchez for St. Louis. Let’s also put an * next to current Cardinal closer Mitchell Boggs, who threw 15 pitches in the night-cap, and has not worked in a back-to-back setting yet this season.

That takes us to the Gorzelanny/Lohse matchup, and there are holes to be found. Gorzelanny is off to an 0-1/5.56 start in which getting the ball down in the strike zone has been a major problem – he has already been tagged for three HR’s over 11.1 frames, with an alarming count of 11 fly-ball outs vs. only three on the ground. With his command nothing special (38.3 percent of his pitches have missed the strike zone), he is not a likely candidate to work deeply here, which brings that weakened National bullpen into play.

Meanwhile Lohse is getting a lot of respect off of his 2-1/2.82 opening, with solid peripherals, but his stuff is such that extended strong periods are rare. Without the kind of velocity to miss bats he has to pitch to contact, and many times what looks like a positive cycle is actually a case of the geometry of the game playing well for him. Here is the best way to break him down. We have a category called “Good” starts, those being games in which a pitcher worked six IP or more, and allowed two ER or less (if the unearned count gets too high, sometimes we will scratch the game from the list). Lohse has had nine such games qualify the last three seasons, and off of the first eight his ensuing start worked to an awful 1-6/9.49. Now he is off of back-to-back “good” outings, and extending to a third is asking a lot for a guy with his limitations. Admittedly injuries played a pair in his 2009-10 showings, and he is healthy now, but he is a journeyman that has posted an ERA of less than 4.18 once in 10 career seasons. This game is being priced on his recent statistical form, and history shows us that he can not maintain that.

[golden contender]

GC NBA Play

Thursday MLB 100% Divisional system Game of the Month + Triple System NBA 5* Has 21-1 and 14-1 Power Angles. Free NBA play Below.

On Thursday the NBA free play is on the Chicago Bulls. Game 733 at 7:05 eastern. The Bulls are 9-1 straight up and against the spread off 3 or more home games. They come in off a pair of wins and no covers in games 1 and 2 of this series. Tonight they will go to Indiana and face a Pacers team that will have the home crowd. However they will not be able to stop a focused Bulls team that will look to improve on a 38% shooting performance. The Bulls will be the more focused team tonight and will contribute more as a team and rely less on D. Rose. In the end look for the Bulls to get the win and cover and take a Commanding 3-0 lead in this first round series. On Thursday I have a XX- Large PLAYS. The MLB Divisional Game of the Month from a 100% Power System + Big NBA Side that has 3 systems. Two of the Systems are hitting in the high 90% range. There are also 21-1 and 14-1 Power Angles that apply. for the free play. Take Chicago. GC

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
4 UNIT* Twins/Orioles U8

[Mr. IWS]

JEFF BENTON

UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK
30 DIME* Houston Astros +125

[Mr. IWS]

ATS LOCK CLUB

4 UNIT* NBA* Dallas Mavericks
4 UNIT* NBA* Miami Heat

[Mr. IWS]

ROBERT FERRINGO

6 UNIT* NHL* GOM* Montreal Canadiens ML

[Mr. IWS]

KELSO

25 UNIT* MLB* Houston Astros +125 ML
10 UNIT* MLB* Florida Marlins -135 ML
3 UNIT* MLB* Philadelphia Phillies -105 ML
10 UNIT* NBA* Philadelphia 76ers
3 UNIT* NBA* Dallas Mavericks

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG (NHL)
1 OF 2

Game: Chicago at Vancouver (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Chicago +175 (moneyline)

It looks like the oddsmakers have come to a foregone conclusion that the Canucks will win tonight and advance. We saw a series like this last year that appeared to be heading down that road then all of a sudden a team wins, gets hot and runs the table. I'm not sure if the Blackhawks will accomplish that, but the Stanley Cup Champions aren't going down without a hard fight. Down three games to none, they showed they were not about to quit with a big 7-2 win, and they know this is a series again with a win tonight. The Canucks have been strong all year, but with one chink in the armor as they are just 1-4 following a 3-goal loss or more. The Blackhawks can win this game as they are 26-12 straight-up since last season vs. great teams (those at .600 or better). On the road over that span, they are 18-10 vs. teams that score 3+ goals per game. They are also 30-9 over that span after a home win by 4+ goals.
At these odds, I like Chicago.

[Mr. IWS]

DOC SPORTS

MLB
4 UNIT* MLB* Arizona Diamondbacks +115
4 UNIT* MLB* Atlanta Braves +120
4 UNIT* MLB* Houston Astros + 115
4 UNIT* MLB* Philadelphia Phillies -110
5 UNIT* MLB* GOW Cleveland Indians -115

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY

4 UNIT* MLB* Twins/Orioles U8
4 UNIT* NBA* Portland Trail Blazers -5.5

[Mr. IWS]

AL DEMARCO

BIGGEST NBA PLAY OF THE SEASON
15 DIME* Chicago Bulls

[Mr. IWS]

ANDY FANELLI

GAME OF MY CAREER
75 DIME* Miami Heat