1-16-11

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section.

note:
ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BAD INFO BEING PASSED AROUND LATELY, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK.

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Fargo NFL GOY

Bears

[Mr. IWS]

Randal the handle

PITTSBURGH –3 over Baltimore SportsInteraction

Rivalry? Yes. Evenly matched? On the surface, yes. Are their games usually close? Six of past seven games have been decided by a field goal, including both this year, so it has to be a yes. Does any of that matter for this game? Absolutely not. Each game brings different circumstances and because of the history here, the current records of these two combatants and Baltimore’s decisive win against overmatched Kansas City last week, we become the beneficiaries. The Steelers are rugged. They gave up the least amount of points (240) in the NFL this past season, an average of just 14.5 per game. In their final seven games, they gave up more than 16 points just once and held four of their opponents under double-digits. Pittsburgh’s run defense is exceptional, having relinquished just 1,004 yards on the ground, the 3rd lowest amount in history over a 16-game schedule. Baltimore could not solve this stellar stop unit either, having rushed for just 116 yards in the two games played earlier. That clearly puts the game on the suspect shoulders of Joe Flacco. With an aging receiving corps, an offensive line that does not protect particularly well, the Ravens on six days rest compared to Pittsburgh’s 13 and with Baltimore’s current’ 0-5 run versus counterpart Ben Roethlisberger, is that a comforting place to be? We think not and with the Steelers being better on both sides of the ball, a rather convincing win would not surprise. Play: Pittsburgh –3 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Green Bay +1.23 over ATLANTA Pinnacle

Both teams are talented and both are hard to dislike. The Falcons are no-nonsense. They play hard and fair and efficiently. They own an incredible 20-2 record on this field under the guidance of QB Matt Ryan. They are well coached and they are capable of beating any team in this league on any given day. However, the Packers are hot and when you have a hot team that can play defence the way this unit can, taking any points being offered becomes the prudent choice. As mentioned here last week, Green Bay has not lost a game by more than four points this entire season. That includes a game where the Packers went toe-to-toe with Atlanta while visiting here, back in late November, before succumbing by a 20-17 count on a last second field goal. Despite losing, Aaron Rodgers was 26 of 35 passing for 344 yards. In that game, Green Bay ran for just 77 yards that day. With the sudden emergence of rookie James Starks (123 rushing yards vs. Eagles last week), the proficient arm of Rodgers and this solid defense, Green Bay offers enticing value. Play: Green Bay +1.23 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO –10 over Seattle SportsInteraction

Never thought we’d be endorsing a double-digit favorite so fervently but voila, here it is. Two weeks ago, the entire betting public was all over the St. Louis Rams as a 3-point favorite in Seattle. That’s right, the Rams! Last week, sportsbooks had to lobby for Seahawks money, despite being offered 10 points or better with Seattle as hosts to the Saints. Lo and behold, the Seachickens win both games and suddenly they are Cinderella darlings? Give us a break. This is not Qwest field. The Bears are not a team decimated by injuries. Chicago’s defense is not a leaky unit that exposes itself to big plays. In fact, the Bears own the 2nd best run defense and 4th stingiest points allowed in the league. To put the latter into perspective, seven of the eight teams playing this weekend, are tops in points allowed. The Seahawks are 25th. In a league of 32 teams, Seattle was 27th on offense and 28th on defense. Okay, let’s say you’re delusional and you’re thinking that Seattle can lose the game but because of the large number, you can still get a cover? Well, think again. In the Seahawk’s nine losses, 15 points was the slimmest margin of defeat! That’s unfathomable. QB Matt Hasselbeck had the game of his life last week. Don’t expect lightning to strike twice. Hasselbeck has the mobility of a fire hydrant and with the likes of Julius Peppers, Israel Idonije, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs chasing him around, this is going to be a very unpleasant end to a peculiar season. Bears roll. Play: Chicago –10 (Risking 2.1 units).

NEW ENGLAND –8½ over N.Y. Jets Pinnacle

Rex Ryan couldn’t hold Bill Belichick’s hoodie. Maybe Ryan’s jibberish is just a tactic to divert heat off his players but this is not the coach or the team you want to be mouthing off to. The Patriots were the league’s best team this season. Maybe not from the start but its how you finish that counts. New England scored 31 or more points in each of its final eight games. The Steelers, Jets, Bears and Packers were defenders included in that set. Some may point out that the Jets own the 3rd best defense in the league. Tell that to the 45-3 result played here approximately six weeks ago between these two. Others may point out that New England gives up a lot of yardage at 366 per game, ranking them 25th in the league. That may be true but those numbers may be skewed as much of the yardage given up was garbage yards when the Pats had games well in hand. Despite the generous yards allowed, the Patriots still finished amongst leaders in points allowed, permitting just one point per game more than these visiting Jets. The Pats average 10 points more per game on offense. It helps that Jets QB Mark Sanchez scares no one. Sanchez is the shameful owner of a 54.8 pass completion percentage, landing him 29th in the league, ahead of only Carolina’s Jimmy Clausen and Arizona’s Derek Anderson. The Belichick/Brady combo appear to be having as much fun and success as ever with this unlikely cast. After being embarrassed on this field in last year’s playoffs, expect the Jets to be muzzled both on and off the field when this one is all said and done. Play: New England –8½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

fairway jay 20*---bears

[Mr. IWS]

teddy covers

sea/chi over
jets

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

5* Chicago Bears -10

4* NY Jets +9

[Mr. IWS]

Al Demarco

15 Dime Teaser of The Year

Patriots & Over Patriots/Jets

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4 UNIT New England Patriots, -8.5
4 UNIT Seattle Seahawks, Over 41

[Mr. IWS]

David Malinsky

4* NY JETS over NEW ENGLAND

Rarely have we ever seen the result of a single game have the line impact that the 45-3 Monday night rout the Patriots had over the Jets on week #13, not all that long ago, as we see here. That game sat on New England -3.5 for most of the week, before closing at -4, a price that has now more than doubled. Has anything happened since then to also generate the gap? No. While the Patriots did close out strong, the Jets have won at Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, and nearly won at Chicago as well. So we do not hesitate to accept the market generosity in a game that does not bring physical matchups anywhere near what this line suggests.

New England is not an easy team to rate because of the nature of a truly historic season. The Patriots set an all-time NFL record by only turning the ball over 10 times, and their +28 in TO differential was the third best over the past 50 seasons. When something happens that extreme it is naturally going to skew other statistics, like the fact that their opponents actually ended up with more first downs (348-335) and more total yards (5,864-5,820). We have to put an * next to those, but what is meaningful is that in terms of yards per play it was only a 5.9 to 5.6 New England advantage, a tie for #8 in that category. It was precision, not necessarily prowess. In truth they get an absolute A for their offensive precision, with Tom Brady running a sophisticated scheme in which there are not a lot of risks taken. We do not give the defense anywhere near that grade, however. We credit that group with being every bit as much lucky as good, and in allowing 63.5 percent pass completions at 7.1 per attempt, and 1,728 rushing yards at 4.2, it was an average group kept from further statistical exposure by favorable bounces.

The Jet defensive numbers are in an entirely different league, and while they were embarrassed by Brady in that Monday night debacle, they also own a pair of outright wins over the Patriots the past two seasons in which the results were entirely different. They are not going to be intimidated in any way, and if anything the fact that they could corral Peyton Manning and the Colts with far fewer blitzes than usual last week sets up the game plan here play it straight, rely on Darrelle Reavis and Antonio Cromartie to handle their guys one-on-one, and force New England to beat them with personnel, rather than Brady making the right reads in a gambling defense that has to allow a hole or two. The Patriot receivers are good, not great, and the RB's just average, getting much more out of tactics than talent. The flip side to this equation can also fit, with the Jet offense having an outstanding second half at Indianapolis to grow in confidence. When the counting was done they had 70 offensive plays to just 54 for the Colts, with LaDanian Tomlinson (82 rushing yards) and Shonn Greene (70) both effective overland, and Mark Sanchez able to play within himself. The pieces are in place for a dink-and-dunk attack that can control the ball for long stretches against a defense that is vulnerable to just that.

That all leaves us with a unique bottom line. Rarely do we ever see a price this high when the underdog has a roster that is every bit that of what the favorite brings, with the Jets clearly better at running the football, and at defending both the run and the pass. It shows how much the Patriot turnover differential has become an accepted reality in the marketplace, rather than a pendulum that has gone to an extreme, and a confident team that has won three road playoff games over the past two seasons brings the swagger to be in the hunt all the way in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

CHUCK O'BRIEN

50 DIME* New England Patriots

15 DIME* Chicago Bears

[Mr. IWS]

Brett Atkins

40 DIME NFL DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR

Seattle Seahawk

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover

25 Dime AFC Playoff Line Mistake Winner
New England

15 Dime Playoff Bonus
Chicago

[Mr. IWS]

A.REDDDD

Sunday's Plays
20 Dime Release on Creighton as the road dog over Indiana State. As this play is reliased at 5 AM Pacific, the Bluejays are currently getting 3 1/2 points in this contest.
20 Dime Release on Akron as the road dog over Buffalo. The Zips are currently getting 5 points in this contest.
20 Dime Release on Iowa as the road dog over Minnelsota. The Hawkeyes are cuhrently getting 10 1/2 points in this contest.

[Mr. IWS]

Tom Stryker

Top Play Bears-10
opinion NE-9

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Lineback

Teaser: Bears/Pats