12-23-10

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section.

note:
ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BAD INFO BEING PASSED AROUND LATELY, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-10

DR BOB

San Diego St. (-4.5) 32 Navy 29 (at Poinsettia Bowl)
05:00 PM Pacific, 23-Dec-10
San Diego State is playing this game in their home stadium but their home field advantage is not likely to be as strong as normal since Navy should have plenty of backers in a military rich community with two military bases and a lot of retired Navy veterans in the area. Navy is 2-0 AST in the Poinsettia Bowl, winning by 21 points as a 2 ½ point favorite over Colorado State in 2005 and losing by just 3 points as an 8 point dog to a good Utah team in 2007. Home field advantage is really half home team advantage and half road team disadvantage, so I’ll give San Diego State their part of the home field advantage while not applying Navy’s road disadvantage. Navy doesn’t usually have a road disadvantage anyway, as the Midshipmen are 63% ATS away from home the last 30 years, including 5-2 ATS this season and 87-42-1 ATS since 1991 and 7-3 ATS in bowl games. Military teams in general tend to play well in bowl games, as Army, Navy, and Air Force are a combined 23-9 ATS in bowl games since 1976, including 17-3 ATS if facing a team with a win percentage of .600 or higher. Perhaps military teams use their extreme discipline to remain focused during the weeks leading up to a bowl game while the focus of non-military teams may wander at times. Whatever the reason, it’s certainly not a trend I’m willing to buck if the line is fair.

Navy is probably going to have to score a good number of points to stay close in this game since their sub-par pass defense (6.2 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.6 yppp against an average defensive team). This game will be the first all season that Navy has had to face a good quarterback, as San Diego State’s Ryan Lindley actually ranked at 15th in the nation in compensated yards per pass play, averaging 8.3 yppp against Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Navy did face 3 average passing teams and the Middies gave up 7.1 yppp in those 3 games to Duke, Notre Dame, and East Carolina – teams that would combine to average just 6.1 yppp against an average defense. Lindley will likely put up big passing numbers and Aztecs’ back Ronnie Hillman (1304 yards at 5.6 ypr) should run well against a below average Navy defensive front that allowed 5.1 yards per rushing play this season. My math model projects 479 yards at 6.9 yards per play for San Diego State in this game, which should lead to between 30 and 40 points.

Navy’s offense was very good this season, averaging 6.3 yards per play in quarterback Ricky Dobbs’ 10 starts against Division 1A opposition that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Navy’s option should move the ball at about their normal level against a good but not great San Diego State defense that gave up 4.5 yards per rushing play and 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yprp and 5.2 yppl against an average defense. The Aztecs did a decent job defending the Air Force triple-option attack earlier in the season, limiting the Falcons to 5.3 yppl and 25 points (Air Force would average 5.7 yppl and 26.7 points on the road against an average defense) and my math model projects 417 yards at 6.0 yppl for Navy in this game, which is a little less than the Middies’ normal offensive output.

My math model favors San Diego State by 5 points overall giving them half of the normal home field advantage, so the line is pretty fair in this game. Navy has scored 28 points or more in their last 8 games, including against a solid SMU defense and a good Notre Dame defense so the Midshipmen should be able to match points with a San Diego State attack that will surely be able to move the ball. With the line being fair, I will lean with Navy at +3 ½ points or more based on the success of military teams in bowl games and the good ATS mark of the Midshipmen away from home. My math model projects 63 total points but Navy’s games were about 3 ½ points lower scoring than their stats would project so a line of 60 points is reasonable. Thus, I have no opinion on the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Lang 20 Dime SD State.

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root:

San Diego St.
Pittsburgh Steelers

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL MCMORDIE

3* San Diego State

[Mr. IWS]

Ness Legend- Orland Magic