10-30-10

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section!!!

Big Al, Lang, Sprietzer, PPP, Burns, Root, Dr.Bob, Ness, (go here)

ALL OTHER'S WILL BE POSTED IN THE REGULARS!!

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note:
ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BAD INFO BEING PASSED AROUND LATELY, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Best Bets
Rotation #147 Texas El Paso (+3) 2-Stars at +3 or more.
Rotation #170 Texas A&M (-7) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars up to -9 1/2.

Strong Opinions
Rotation #131 Kentucky (+6 1/2) Strong Opinion at +6 or more.
Rotation #158 Central Florida (-7 1/2) Strong Opinion at -9 1/2 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -7 (-115 odds or better).
Rotation #164 Nebraska (-7 1/2) Strong Opinion at -8 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -7 (-115 odds or better).
Rotation #186 Memphis (+14) Strong Opinion at +14 or more.
Rotation #198 Hawaii (-14 1/2) Strong Opinion at -16 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -14

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al McMordie


At 8 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans + the points over Oregon, as USC falls into a multitude of my best College Football systems, which have records of 76-33, 72-42, 148-78, 23-0, 67-26, 155-87 and 96-42 ATS.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos + the points over Northern Illinois.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over Georgia, as Florida falls into a sweet 44-8 ATS "contrarian" system of mine, based on the fact that it has failed to cover its last three games, while Georgia comes into this contest off 3 straight ATS wins.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Colorado St Rams minus the points over New Mexico.

Our 3 selections include the Mississippi Rebels, Arizona St Sun Devils and Colorado Buffaloes.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Arizona.

Our 5 selections include Texas El Paso, SMU, Texas A&M, Purdue, and Maryland.

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over New Orleans, as we'll play on the Spurs since they come into tonight's game with two days' of rest (while New Orleans had to play last night).

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons plus the points over Utah, as Air Force falls into 71-22, 23-0, 72-23, 44-8, 119-55, 80-29 and 96-42 ATS systems of mine

At 6:55 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the San Francisco Giants.

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

DUKE (+13 or better)

Game: Duke vs. Navy Game Time: 10/30/2010 3:30:00 PM Prediction: Duke Reason: I'm playing on DUKE. I really like how this one sets up for the visitors. The Midshipmen are off a huge win over Notre Dame. In addition to helping provide us with some additional line value, that may have them patting themselves on the back a bit. At the very least, Navy may find it easy to overlook the 'lowly' Blue Devils, who are just 1-6. I feel that will prove costly. True, the Blue Devils are a poor 1-6. That's not entirely their fault though. They're home games came against Elon, Alabama, Army and Miami. They did beat Elon and probably should have been able to beat Army - (they did outgain the Knights.) However, beating Miami or Alabama wasn't very likely. They've also had road games at Wake Forest, Maryland and Virginia Tech. While they didn't win any of those games, they were highly competitive at both Wake Forest and Maryland, losing each game by less than a touchdown. Anyway, my point is, that they've played quite a tough schedule. So, while they could be better than 1-6, the poor overall record isn't that shocking. A closer look at Duke's difficult schedule reveals that five of their seven games were decided by 15 points or less. Navy has also been involved in a number of close games this season. Yes the Midshipmen won by 18 vs. the Irish last week. However, their previous six games were ALL decided by 14 or fewer points, five of them being decided by eight or less. The Blue Devils beat Navy by 10 when these teams met in 2008 and this is arguably a more talented team. I expect the Blue Devils to give the Midshipmen all they can handle again here, earning at least the cover and improving to 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range. *9
MISSISSIPPI (+6 or better)

Game: Auburn vs. Mississippi Game Time: 10/30/2010 6:00:00 PM Prediction: Mississippi Reason: I'm playing on MISSISSIPPI. With a perfect record and a top 5 ranking, the Tigers are obviously a very solid team, one which I respect. In fact, many of you will recall that I had a big play on them a couple of weeks ago, when they crushed Arkansas by a 65-43 count. They followed that victory up by beating LSU by seven points last week. Those games were both at home though. Now, the Tigers take to the road, where things have been far more challenging. I expect them to have their hands full. The Tigers have only played two road games, at Kentucky and Mississippi State. In both cases, they won by only a field goal. The Rebels lost each of their last two games. Those were both on the road, at very difficult venues though, Arkansas and Alabama. Note that in both cases, they still stayed within 14 points. Now, they're back home though, where they beat Kentucky and Fresno State in their last two games. While most have now become familiar with Cam Newton, Auburn's big star QB, the Rebels have a very capable "dual-threat" QB of their own. Masoli three for 327 yards and three TDs against Arkansas last time out and he'll be facing an Auburn pass defense which ranks 101st in the country. Auburn's coach Gene Chizik said this of the Rebels' passing attack: "When (Masoli) gets outside the pocket and he throws the ball down the field, they're making a lot of big things happen. He brings definitely a dimension to the team that's two-fold, and his athletic ability is the reason he's able to do those things." While they lost at Auburn last season, the Rebels had an edge in both first downs and time of possession. The last time that they hosted the Tigers was in 2008 - Ole Miss won that game by a score of 17-7. Note that the Rebels are 7-2 SU the last nine times that they were coming off a conference loss. They're also 6-2 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as underdogs. Looking back further and we find them at a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 56 to 63.5 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *9
UNDER usc/oregon (70 or better)

Game: Oregon vs. USC Game Time: 10/30/2010 8:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Oregon and USC to finish UNDER the total. As you're probably aware, these teams are both capable of scoring a lot of points. Everyone else is aware of the same thing though and this season's results have been factored into the O/U line. Indeed, consider that last year's O/U line between these same two teams was 48.5 and that the 2008 line was 56.5. Now, we've got a line in the low 70s. With all due respect to the offenses, I believe that its too high and that the value lies with the UNDER. Yes, the Ducks have put up massive numbers. They've also been quite solid defensively too though. Last week, they limited UCLA to 13 points and 290 total yards. For the season, they're allowing 15.9 points per game. This week, the Ducks should face the best defense that they've seen all season. The Trojans' defensive stats aren't as good as they'd like. However, as always, they have terrific athletes on that side of the ball. It took them a bit to adjust to the coaching change but the Trojans defense limited California to 14 points last time out. Cal would finish with only 245 total yards of offense. Considering that Cal entered that game averaging 35.8 points and better than 400 yards per game, the Trojans played excellent defense. As dangerous and explosive as the Oregon offense is, at least the Trojans have had an extra week to prepare for it. While this is a new staff and team, its still worth noting that the UNDER is 5-1 the last six times that the Trojans were coming off a bye. Overall, the Trojans have seen the UNDER go 9-5-1 their last 15 home games. They were blown out at Oregon last season and, while its easier said than done, slowing down the Ducks figures to be this year's top priority. The Ducks have only had one game with an O/U line of 70 or greater - their game vs. Washington State had a total of 70. Coincidentally, that was their one game which stayed below the total. The Ducks last four trips to USC saw 54, 45, 45 and 46 points scored. I look for the Ducks to score their fewest points yet and for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. *10
IOWA (-7 or better)

Game: Michigan St. vs. Iowa Game Time: 10/30/2010 3:30:00 PM Prediction: Iowa Reason: I'm playing on IOWA. A few weeks back, the Spartans beat the Badgers. Last week, the Badgers beat the Hawkeyes, who are now 5-2. At 8-0, the Spartans also bring the better record to the table. Therefore, given those results and records, many will expect the Spartans to also beat the Hawkeyes. As usual, I see things differently. Historically, homefield tends to be significant in this series. In fact, the home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this series. The exception was last season, when the Hawkeyes scored on the final play to earn a road win. Speaking of homefield advantage, the Hawkeyes are playing their second straight home game. The Spartans are playing their second straight on the road. That's the first (and will be the only) time that the Spartans have done that this season. Last season, when playing the second of back to back road games, they were 0-1 SU/ATS. Listed as +2 point underdogs, they lost by eight. Looking back further and we find the Spartans at 0-4 SU since 2006, when playing the second of back to back reg. season road games. That includes a 0-1 SU/ATS mark here at Iowa. (The Spartans also 1-3 the last four years after having faced Northwestern in their previous game.) While the perfect record is certainly impressive, keep in mind that last week's win at Northwestern was Michigan State's first game outside the state of Michigan. They were also somewhat fortunate to win, as they had to rally for a big second half combeback. As MSU QB Kirk Cousins noted: "We are a second-half team..." Having the ability to come from behind is certainly important. That said, if/when they fall behind again here, I expect the Spartans to find "coming back" a lot more difficult. Keep in mind that Iowa returned 14 starters from last year's 11-2 team, which won the Orange Bowl. The Hawkeyes are both well-coached and talented. They're also a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this millennium, when hosting the Spartans. All four of those victories came by a minimum of five points and they came by an average of 15.5. I look for those stats to improve here, as the Hawkeyes bounce back and hand the Spartans their first loss of the season. *10
PITTSBURGH (-10 or better)

Game: Louisville vs. Pittsburgh Panthers Game Time: 10/30/2010 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Pittsburgh Panthers Reason: I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Louisville comes off an impressive 26-0 victory. Give the Cardinals credit. However, lets not forget that they were facing a UConn team which is now 0-4 on the road. Now, its the Cardinals which are playing on the road. Making matters worse, this time, they'll be facing a far stronger opponent, arguably the most talented team in the conference. True, the Cardinals are a respectable 4-3. However, last week's win over UConn was arguably their biggest win and I already noted that the Huskies are winless on the road. (The Cardinals also caught the Huskies breaking in a new QB.) Prior to that, Louisville's other three victories came against Eastern Kentucky, Arkansas State and Memphis - all three of those teams are weaklings this year. Yes, the Huskies defense has been solid. The offense is fairly one-dimensional though and I believe that the Panthers are stronger on both sides of the ball. Note that the Huskies' strength on offense is running the ball and that plays right into Pittsburgh's hands. The Panthers' strength on defense has been shutting down the run. The Panthers are allowing a mere 92.4 ypg on the ground. The Panthers began the season with big expectations. While they started slowly, they've now begun to click on all cylinders. They've won three of their last four games, all three victories coming by double-digits, incl. a 41-21 blowout of Rutgers last week and a 45-14 destruction of Syracuse, the previous week. Including those results, the Panthers are now 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in October, the past few seasons. Clearly, this has been Wannestedt's "time of year." It's also worth noting that the Panthers are a profitable 34-18 ATS (excluding pushes) their last 52 lined games, when coming off a conference win. That includes a 7-3 ATS mark the past few seasons. I mentioned that the Panthers have been strong in October. One of their recent October victories was last season, at Louisville. Pittsburgh was laying -6.5 points and won by 25, a 35-10 victory. The most recent meeting here at Pittsburgh also resulted in a blowout victory for the Panthers. Pittsburgh won that one by a score of 41-10. The Panthers are the lone undefeated team remaining in the Big East. Playing at home, I expect another double-digit victory. *10

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns NHL

Hockey (NHL)

PITTSBURGH

Game: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Carolina Hurricanes Game Time: 10/30/2010 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins Reason: I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. These teams both played last night. The Hurricanes won 4-3 at MSG. The Penguins lost 3-2 at home, vs. the Flyers. Those results should work in our favor, as they should ensure that the Pens, who have now dropped three in a row, are fully focused. A closer look at last night's game shows that the Canes were outshot by the Rangers while the Pens had an edge in shots on goal in their game. Given last night's effort, I'd say there's a good chance that Pittsburgh will be starting Brent Johnson in goal tonight. (The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is reporting the same thing.) That's not a bad thing though. Not at all. Johnson is 4-0-1 on the season with a sparkling 1.39 GAA. (Fleury is 1-5 with a 3.55 GAA) Last night's results notwithstanding, I still believe that the Pens are a better team than Carolina. The Pens have won three of their last four games here, outscoring the Canes by a combined 16-9 margin. I expect them to bounce back and snap their skid here. *8
ST LOUIS

Game: Atlanta Thrashers vs. St. Louis Blues Game Time: 10/30/2010 8:05:00 PM Prediction: St. Louis Blues Reason: I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Blues are rolling. They've won three straight games and they're a perfect 4-0 here at home. They're playing well and they've also been getting superb goaltending from Jaroslav Halak. You may recall that Halak practically single-handedly brought Montreal to the Eastern Finals in the playoffs last season. He's certainly lived up to expectations here. So far, he's 5-1-1 with a 1.55 goals-against average. He's also currently "in the zone," as he hasn't allowed a goal in more than 150 minutes. That's the type of play we saw from him in the playoffs, when he was seemingly facing 50+ shots per game. St Louis defenseman Erik Johnson said this of his new goalie: "He looks like he is not even trying. He is so effortless in his motion. There is no wasted energy with him. We feel so confident with him back there because he's so cool, calm and collected. We know we can go on offense and he'll be back there if we have any hiccups. He has been a great, great asset for us." While the Blues had last night off, the Thrashers are off a hard-fought OT victory vs. the Sabres. Atlanta fell behind 2-0 in that one. It could have been worse, as at times in the first period of that game, the Thrashers were completely outclassed and were absolutely scrambling. However, the battled all the way back and were leading late in the third period. The Sabres scored with eight seconds left in the game though to force OT. Atlanta eventually won 4-3. While the Thrashers got the desired result, they showed they were vulnerable in certain areas and now will be playing a tough back to back spot. With the Blues playing so well at home (they've outscored teams by a 3-1 margin here so far) and with the Thrashers off a tough game and checking in at a money-burning 27-47 (-8.8) the last few seasons against winning teams, I feel the steep price is justified. I expect St. Louis to continue its current roll for at least one more day. *6

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns MLB



TEXAS

Game: San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers Game Time: 10/30/2010 6:55:00 PM Prediction: Texas Rangers Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. Down 2-0, naturally, this is an absolutely critical game for the Rangers. Its true that teams don't always win these "must win games." Far from it. Its also true that we generally have to pay a little extra for the team in the "must win" role. In this case, however, given the venue, pitching matchup and character of the team, I expect the Rangers to respond with their best effort. For starters, the Rangers are a far stronger team at home. They were 51-30 here during the season, as compared to only 39-42 on the road. Meanwhile, the Giants aren't as good away from San Francisco. On of the reasons for the better record here, is that the Rangers are more comfortable hitting in their own park. They averaged 5.3 runs and hit .286 here. True, it can be a good hitter's ballpark. However, opposing teams didn't hit too well here. Visiting teams hit .248 here and averaged only 4.2 runs. Note that those stats are nearly identical to what the Giants typically do on the road. Returning home also allows the Rangers to get Vladimar Guerrero's bat back in the lineup, as a DH, which is obviously significant. As Texas manager Ron Washington noted: "We get to get all of our weapons in that lineup. It's just comfortable to be back home in front of our fans. We can draw energy from them, and that's what we need." I respect Jonathan Sanchez and know that he's capable of being very tough. That said, he hasn't been as "nasty" as Colby Lewis during the playoffs. Facing the Rays and Yankees (twice), Lewis is 2-0 with a superb 1.45 ERA and 1.178 WHIP over his last three starts. True, the Giants have been playing great and they've now won three in a row. However, note that they're a money-burning 21-37 (-17.6) the past few seasons, after winning three straight. Returning home, in a "must win" situation, I expect the Lewis and the Rangers to bounce back and make things interesting. *10

[fsiler]

Does anyone have Root? Thanks

[Mr. IWS]

B Lang

50* wake forest

[Mr. IWS]

Private players
5-ga, c fla,
4-sd st, okla,
3-n ill, tx a&m, navy

[Mr. IWS]

Ness
10-nev, tx, ole miss,
9-so miss, iowa,
8-neb, ok st

[Mr. IWS]

Root:
perfect play: Iowa
Mill: Air Force
UD GOY: Mississippi

[Mr. IWS]

larry ness
club 27* nevada
situational gom - texas
underdog of the year - ole miss

[Mr. IWS]

Root Pinncale -Washington

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer's 100% ATS CFB VALUE KNOCKOUT G.O.Y.! - Saturday
I'm laying the points with Texas on Saturday night. I'm laying the points with Texas. Thanks! GL! Scott.