12-27-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Steven Budin-CEO SUNDAY'S PICK COSTA RICA CONNECTION

50 DIME RELEASE

Pittsburgh

I got this play at 7:00 A.M. Eastern on Christmas Eve. This line has been Pittsburgh -2 1/2 at most Vegas and offshore books, but it wouldn't surprise me if it goes to -3 by Sunday's kick off. As I always say, you don't sit on winners and that's why I released this play within 30 minutes of getting it. At the same time, this gives the best opportunity to buy down the half point at -2 1/2 right now. If this line goes to -3 or -3 1/2, or that's the price you get after shopping around, in those cases as well I advise you to buy down the half-point as insurance on the Steelers.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Trushel

CFB Music City Bowl Bonanza (+15.2 Units CFB in 2009)

Kentucky

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Trushel

NFL Featured Play On NBC (7-1 Top Play NFL Run)

Redskins

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Tim Trushel

all reg plays:

over atlanta
pittsburgh
jets
washington

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Teddy Covers

Nfl
Jets
Giants
Bills/Falcons under

college football
Kentucky

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Ron Raymond’s 5* NFL UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH

Pick # 1 Baltimore Ravens (3.0)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Norm Hitzges

NFL
Double Plays

· Dallas -6.5 vs Washington
· Baltimore +2.5 vs Pittsburgh
· Jets/Colts Under 40.5

Single Plays

· Houston +3 vs Miami
· Jacksonville +7.5 v sNew England
· San Francisco 12 vs Detroit
· Jets +5.5 vs Colts
· Chicago +7 vs Minnesota
· Baltimore/Pittsburgh Over 42
· New England/Jacksonville Under 44
· Houston/Miami Over 45

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

bdougsports

Sunday December 27, 2009

Broncos +7 @ Eagles
Underdogs coming off a loss in which they were big favorites (vs. Raiders) are usually money.For instance the Seahawks lost as 7 point favorites to the Bucs last week and are now 14.5 point dogs to the Packers. That is a 21 point line swing! The only reason why we aren’t jumping on that is because the Seahawks really are awful and could easily lose by 30. This matchup poses a better shot at cashing in on this trend. The Broncos are a very good team and are fighting for their playoff lives. The Eagles are so hot right now, but can lose this game and still make the playoffs. It also seems whenever the Eagles get hot and backed big by the public they fail. Examples: The Eagles were 14 point favorites against the Jamarcus Russell led Raiders and lost. They were also laying 3 at home against a struggling Cowboys team and lost. Brian Dawkins will make a return to Philly and should be amped. The Broncos need this game more than the Eagles and after a loss to a weak divisional foe we should get full effort from the Donkeys.

Ravens/Steelers OVER 41
Forecast calls for chance of snow showers on Sunday in the Steel City where these two divisional foes try to keep their respective playoff hopes alive. The Ravens are coming in at 8-6 and are in control of their own destiny. The Steelers need to win out and get some help with about 85 teams tied at 7-7 right now. Baltimore won the first matchup at their house in a 20-17 in an OT slugfest that featured Dennis Dixon at QB for the Steelers. Big Ben is back for this one fresh off his 500-yard passing game. The Ravens meanwhile just steamrolled Detroit and Chicago by a combined score of 79-10 (no, seriously). We think this one will be another competitive game with the offenses showcasing the talent and this one sailing over the total.

Jaguars +8 @ Patriots
The Pats have been good at home but we still don’t think they should be laying more than a TD. We got a push with Buffalo last week but New England gave Buffalo every chance to cover that game. The Pats defense looked solid, but their offense still seemed off. The Pats need one more win and it probably will come here because the Jags are choke artists. Regardless we think MJD and the gang can stay within a TD. The Jags lost a tough one to Indy last Thursday and now have a week and a half to prepare for this one. 8 points is tough to cover, we’ll take the dog.

Bills +9 @ Falcons
This line has the potential to get up into double digits come kickoff, so if you like it like we do, it may be a wise idea to wait until Sunday. The Bills are looking at starting Brian Brohm from Louisville at QB for this one. We think that's actually a good thing, considering the other schmucks haven't done all that much, why not give the young kid a look and see if he could be the future of the franchise. The Bills have played tough football since Perry Fewell took over and we look for that to continue here. The Falcons are out of the playoff hunt and we don't think they have much to play for here. Yes, the NFL is a prideful league and no game is meaningless, but this looks likes a spot for the Falcons to be a little flat.

Giants -7 vs. Panthers
Great spot here for the G-men. They finally seemed to get back on track against the Skins (we missed that one), and the Panthers are coming off a big upset win over the Brett Favres. The Panthers aren’t going to the playoffs and may be happy to call it a year after a nice upset victory. The Giants meanwhile need to win out for a chance to make the playoffs. They will be fully focused for this one and the Panthers may be willing to lay over. One concern is the revenge factor as the Giants beat the Panthers late last year in OT to knock the Panthers down a seed. That shouldn’t be a big concern though, we like the revamped Giants to unload and look forward to making a potential run.

Lions +12.5 @ 49ers
Matthew Stafford just got put on IR and the Detroit QB has not been announced yet. Daunte Culpepper has played fair but not great. Drew Stanton played ok in relief of him last week and will likely get the start this week. The Lions outscored the Cards 24-14 in the second half with Stanton directing the offense. Throw in that double digit dogs were 3-1 ATS last week and we think that the Lions are severely undervalued here. Grab the points.

Raiders +3.5 @ Browns
The Browns win a couple in a row, one a primetime game against a division foe and another against the crappy Chiefs and now they deserve to be laying points? Come on now! The Raiders have been terrible after a win, but Charlie Frye is getting to play against the team that released him so they guy will be fired up. On the flip side, the Browns will be without Brady Quinn and DA has been awful this year. Oakland is 3-4 on the road, and the Browns are just 1-5 at home. They were given a 48 hour extension to sell out or the game will be blacked out. After 2 wins the Browns ay be fat and happy. Rob Ryan coached the Raiders but that shouldn't help because his defense is plain vanilla.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK PLAY


Kentucky over Clemson by 3 IS RATED A 3 STAR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Shea Matthews of OffshoreInsiders

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Sunday, December 27, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook favorite: Patriots -7.5

It sure doesn’t feel like the Patriots have won two straight games, does it? But that’s the impression we’ve gotten watching the Pats try to move the ball lately. Tom Brady hooked up with Randy Moss once last week but let’s face it; they aren’t connecting right now. For whatever reason, Brady is off; he’s topped 250 passing yards once and thrown more interceptions (six) than touchdown passes over his last four games. Protection isn’t the issue; he’s been sacked just twice over that span. It doesn’t help that Moss is quitting on plays, too.

In theory, a matchup versus Jacksonville’s pass defense, which ranks 27th in the league, should remedy New England’s offensive woes. Brady has been superior at home, throwing 13 touchdown passes versus three interceptions at Gillette Stadium. Since the Pats are also 7-0 at home, it’s hard to imagine them losing this one.

However, I’m not too confident that they’ll win by more than a touchdown. New England kept the Panthers and Bills’ offenses in check over the last two weeks but those were one-dimensional units that struggle to pass the ball. David Garrard is no star but he’s much more capable than Matt Moore or Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’ll keep the Pats honest and help open up room for Maurice Jones-Drew to pound the rock. As long the Jags stay close and can still run the ball, I think they’ll lose by seven points or less.

NFL odds pick: Jaguars +7.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, December 27, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook favorite: Steelers -2.5

Just when we thought the Steelers were totally hopeless, Ben Roethlisberger threw for 500 yards and stole a game from the Green Bay Packers in Week 15, keeping the Black and Gold mathematically alive in the AFC playoff hunt. Does that mean we can expect another strong performance from the Steelers at home this week?

This is a tough pick for football handicappers. On one hand, Pittsburgh seems energized. They’re a different team when Big Ben is clicking and the Ravens’ secondary has been beatable since it lost Fabian Washington. On the other hand, Pittsburgh has been torched regularly since it lost Troy Polamalu and Joe Flacco has the arm strength to do it again. Ultimately, these two teams are almost mirror images. Both stop the run well, both make mistakes against the pass, and both are well-rounded offensively. Troy Polamalu’s absence may make the difference. Pick Baltimore but switch to Pittsburgh if Troy miraculously returns from his PCL sprain. Also remember that the Steelers are just 1-4 against their own division this season.

NFL odds pick: Ravens +2.5

Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 27, 4:15 p.m. ET
NFL odds favorite: Eagles -7

Though the Broncos and Eagles rarely play each other in cross-conference battles, we can expect plenty of fireworks in this matchup, as both teams are inching closer to locking up playoff berths. Averaging 257.8 passing yards and 106.8 rushing yards per contest, the Eagles are among football’s most balanced teams. Donovan McNabb is good for at least one huge connection with DeSean Jackson every week and LeSean McCoy has played fairly well since getting the starting running back reins after Brian Westbrook went down. McNabb is in tough against the Denver Broncos, who have the NFL’s No. 3 defense and rank seventh in the league in sacks.

We may not see an explosive offense performance from Philly, who seems to be better at exploiting weaker or banged up defensive units. But the Eagles’ “D” should bottle up the Broncos’ offense. Kyle Orton has trouble against aggressive pass-rushing teams, as he showed during a three-pick performance against the Steelers earlier this season. He’s also getting poor protection of late – he’s been sacked 10 times in his last four games – so it could be open season for Philly’s front seven. Those picking the NFL point spread should expect a defensive battle but go with the home team on the strength of the Eagles’ pass rush, which is even better than Denver’s.

Free pick: Eagles -7

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Sunday, December 27, 8:20 p.m. ET
NFL odds favorite: Cowboys -6.5

America’s Team is holding its head high after marching into New Orleans and ending the Saints’ perfect run last week. But wouldn’t it be so fittingly Dallas to follow up that triumph with a loss to lowly Washington? The Redskins are an almost-respectable 3-4 at home and have the league’s No. 5 pass defense, not to mention a solid pass rush. Tony Romo looks like he’s conquering his bad December history but let’s remember that last week’s victory came indoors. A cold night game in D.C. is a different story.

The Cowboys should find a way to win on Sunday night, especially if they commit to the run with Felix Jones, Marian Barber and Tashard Choice. But I think the Redskins beat the spread at home.

Free pick: Redskins +6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

INDIAN COWBOY

4 Unit Play.* #106. Take the Cleveland Browns -3 over the Oakland Raiders (Sunday @ 1pm est).

The Cleveland Browns have slowly but surely been improving. This team not only defeated the Steelers at home but went on the road to defeat the Chiefs as well.* This team has covered five straight ballgames now and it is obvious that Mangini nor this team has quit on the year.* Part of the reason is because Mike Holmgren is likely to take over as the President of this team and Mangini understands that his job is on the line if he does not continue to coach.* But, he has coached well and these players are buying into the system.* The Browns covered against the Chargers and Bengals as well on the road as a twelve point dog and you have to admire a team that has not quit on the year despite having just three wins. Tack on the fact that the Raiders come off a big win against the Browns and I suspect they have a bit of a let down this Sunday.* Again, I can easily see the Browns winning this game by a field goal or more as they are starting to get into the groove in all facets of the ball as compared to earlier this year.

4 Unit Play.* #126.* Take San Francisco 49ers -12 over the Detroit Lions (Sunday @ 4:05pm est).

The Niners need a big win and who better than the Lions who come knocking.* The line quickly went up upon opening as the Niners come off a tough loss to the Eagles on the road.* But, bear in mind that these Niners defeated the NFC Champs in the Arizona Cardinals on MNF winning by a score of 24-9.* Mike Singletary's team does not lose back to back covers very often and they have not done so in the last ten games and the last time they came off a road loss was losing to Green Bay 24-30 only to return back home and defeat the Jaguars 20-3 as a three point chalk.* I like the Niners here to hang tough and bounce-back against the Lions who have not won back to back covers in the NFL in at least over ten weeks.* The Niners are 5-0-2 following an ATS loss and the Lions are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.

4 Unit Play.* #219.* Take Kentucky +7 over Clemson (Sunday @ 8:30pm est).

I will gladly take the SEC team here in Kentucky over the Clemson Tigers.* Bear in mind for all the talent Clemson has, they should not be laying the touchdown here as this game reminds me very much of the 2006 contest between these two teams when then quarterback Woodson led the Wildcats to win that game outright as an eleven point dog.* At the end of the day, Kentucky and Rich Brooks' boys still get no respect as this team beat Auburn on the road outright which Alabama nearly did not do, this team beat Georgia on the road outright which Georgia Tech could not do at home and this team nearly beat South Carolina on the road outright losing by just two points which Clemson got handled relatively easily by the Gamecocks.* I'll take the touchdown on the Kentucky Wildcats who prefer to be here much more than Clemson who could be playing in the BCS game like Georgia Tech if they had not lost that close ballgame.* Again, its all about the teams that want to be here and Kentucky wants to be here a lot more than Clemson imo.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Dave Malinsky

6* Steelers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

Kelso

Best Bets
5 units Dolphins -1.5
4 units Cards -15
3 units Bills/Falcons UNDER 40


Chairmans Club = 15 units Saints -14

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-27-09

MTI Newsletter 12/27

5-Star – Tampa Bay +14’ over NEW ORLEANS — The Saints have always had trouble when hosting a divisional opponent that has a worse record. They were 0-11 ATS in this situation coming into this season and now, after failing to cover at home vs Carolina and Atlanta, they are 0-13 ATS when hosting a divisional opponent that has a worse record. This situation is easilty accessed with the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) with:
team=Saints and H and DIV and WP>o:WP and 20001224<=date
In addition, the Saints are 0-10 ATS (-7.1 ppg) as a 6+ favorite vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road.
Last week, the Saints suffered their first loss of the season to the Cowboys. The loss was coming, as the Saints’ level of play has dropped precipitously over their previous few games. New Orleans was domi- nated by the Cowboys, who had 36:26 of possession time and rushed for 145 yards. It was the Saints lowest possession time of the season by more thren three minutes.
The situation in which the Saints are in has been a losing play for many seasons now. NFL teams are 0-8 ATS (-9.5 ppg) as a home 7+ favorite the week after they had at least three fewer minutes of posses- sion time than their season-to-date average as a home favorite. Also, the league is 0-11 ATS (-13.5 ppg) as a 7+ favorite the week after at home as a TD+ favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. The Bucs are off a great road game and teams on the road off a great road game have been terrific plays. Recently, NFL teams are a combined 13-0 ATS (+6.9 ppg) as a road 7+ dog after a straight up win on the road. Also, NFL teams are 16-0 ATS a a TD+dog when they are off a road game in which they allowed at least ten points fewer than their season-to-date average, as long as they did not lose that game by a field goal or more. The les- son is clear, don’t disrepect a big road dog that is off a godd defensive performance on the road.
The Buccaneers themselves are a perfect 8-0 ATS (15.3 ppg) as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent — wining seven of the eight straight up. Their only loss in this situation came this season, when the Dolphins kicked a field goal with 14 seconds left in the game to beat the Bucs 25-23 as a double-digit favorite.
Yes, the Saints beat the Bucs 38-7 as a double-digit favorite in Tampa earlier this season, but New Orleans is 0-5 ATS (-12.0 ppg) at home vs a team they beat as a 3+ road favorite earlier the same season. Grab the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: Tampa Bay 17 NEW ORLEANS 20

4-Star Carolina at NY Giants UNDER 43 — The Giants have gone over three straight, but all games were vs divisional opponent in games that had a line very close to pick. Here, they are a significant favorite and we expect them to play a bit more conservatively on of- fense. The Panthers, of course, should feature their rushing game to keep the ball out of the hands of the red-hot Eli Manning.
The Panthers upset the Vikings last Sunday Night using patience and a very tough defense. Carolina stayed close to the Vikings for the first three quarters and then outscored them 20-0 in the fourth quarter to win 26-7. The Panthers punted seven times and forced the Vikings to punt eight times. We expect them to adopt the same conservative strategy against the Giants.
The Panthers are 0-8 OU (-6.9 ppg) as a dog the week after a win in which they did not have the lead after any of the first three quarters and 0-9 OU after a game in which they scored at least 7 points MORE than expected and allowed at least seven points FEWER than expected.
In addition, Carolina is 0-11 OU since the start of the 2002 season when they are off a game in which they punter at least seven times and trailed at the half. The Panthers have stayed under by an average of 11.2 ppg in this situation.
The fact that the Panthers are a big dog here and they were a dog last week points to the UNDER. Carolina is 0-11 OU (-9.5 ppg) as a dog of more than six points when they were a dog last week. The SDQL for this situation is:
team=Panthers and line>6 and p and NB and 20020929<=date
Note that this trend was active last week when the Panthers were a big dog against the Vikings. That game, of course, stayed under the total.
Lastly, for the Panthers, we expect a strong defensive effort because of their large time of possession last week. Carolina is 0-7 OU (-10.9 ppg) as a dog the week after they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average as a TD+ dog.
Turning our attention to the Giants, we recall that they are a TD favorite over a non-divisional opponent after facing divisional op- ponents in each of the previous three weeks. The Giants’ offense has been really clicking, but this is an UNDER situation for the league. Teams that are not undefeated on the season are a combined 0-17 OU as a 7+ point home favorite over a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks, as long as they had at 35+ first downs combined in those two games vs divisional foes. Let’s take these two UNDER.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY GIANTS 20 Carolina 17