12-23-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

MARC LAWRENCE COLLEGE BOWL STAT REPORT ( 4-0 IN BOWL GAMES THUS FAR)

2009 BOWL STAT PROJECTION
CALIFORNIA BY 3

We all remember the number Utah did on Alabama in last year’s Sugar
Bowl. What you may not recall is that the Utes have been doing this
for years. This is the 8th bowl appearance the boys from Salt Lake City
have made since the 2001 season. They have won the previous seven
in straight-up fashion and brought home the cash in six of them. They
have also been money in the bank since 1990 as dogs when owning a
.750 or greater win percentage, checking in with an 18-5 ATS log. The
early money on this game seems to be going on California. We suggest
you keep a close eye on the line as bowl dogs that were undefeated
last year are 8-4 ATS and a perfect 6-0 ATS when taking 4.5 points or
more. While the Bears have won fi ve of six bowl games under HC Jeff
Tedford’s tutelage, they have garnered the cash in just three of those
is games. Tedford’s bunch also spent their season fi nale hibernating in
Husky Stadium and that’s not good news for Berkeley backers as Tedford
is a sleepwalking 1-5 SU and ATS away or neutral off a SU favorite loss.
Meanwhile, Cal arrives on a four game bowl win skein of its own. They
are, however, 0-3 ATS as bowl favorites versus an opponent off a SU loss
and 1-5 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 10 points versus Mountain
West opponents. While we’d love to snap the rubber band with Kyle
Whittingham and his underrated Utes, we’re a little concerned about
‘Sugar’ withdrawal. We’re gonna shop (for points) rather than plop at
this time in what fi gures to be a FG contest.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP:

OVERALL: 2-1

2*:0-1
3*: 1-0
4*: 1-0


First meeting S/’03 (Cal leads series 4-2). This is UT’s 7th consec bowl and they have won their L/8 SU (longest streak in NCAA) while covering 6 of the L/7. LY UT busted the BCS for the 2nd time (beat Pitt in the ‘04 Fiesta) this time taking on Bama. Not only did they cover (+9’), they dominated building a 21-0 1Q lead and finishing w/a 349-208 yd edge in the upset. Whittingham is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in bowls. This will mark Cal’s 7th consec bowl appearance, all under HC Tedford (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) but their goals were set much higher and they just squeaked into the P10 bowl affiliation. UT has 11 Sr’s among 17 upperclassmen starters while Cal has just 7 Sr sts among 15 upperclassmen. UT plyd 5 bowl elig tms going 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS being outscored 28-24 and outgained 329-302 in those while Cal went 4-3 SU/ATS despite being outscored (28-23) and outgained (393-353). Oreg was the only common opp that UT and Cal faced in ‘09 with UT dropping a 7 pt heartbreaker (outgained 312-297) while Cal was mauled by UO 42-3 (outgained 524-207).
After LY’s Sugar Bowl win UT lost production on both off and def incl Utah’s all-time winningest QB, Brian Johnson. JC QB Cain won the starting job and technically went 7-1 SU in his gms but was replaced at HT vs WY by True Fr QB Wynn, who sparked the 2H win. Including WY, Wynn has thrown for 991 yds (55%) w/a 5-3 ratio, going 2-2 in gms he has started and finished. UT was, once again, counting on a big yr from RB Asiata, but, once again, he was hurt, this time after 4 gms (brk leg in opener ‘08). Wide stepped up and since taking over as the feature back, has avg 107 ypg (5.8). He broke the schl rec’d w/6 consec 100 yd gms before being contained by TCU (25 yds) and SDSt (84 yds) but did record a 114 yd outing vs BYU. UT ran the “Asiata Formation” before his inj, but it has since been dubbed the “Shaky Formation” with most of Smithson’s rush yds coming out of the direct snap. WR Reed became just the 6th plyr in UT history w/1,000 yds rec in a ssn. The OL (two 1st Tm All-MWC players) avg 6’3” 300 with 1 Sr starter and has started 97% of the gms together. They have all’d 17 sks (4.6%) opening holes for 169 ypg rush (4.5). Overall the off ranks #57. The D comes in at #31. The DL has suffered thru some inj’s losing starter Shelby (knee) vs TCU while Eliapo has missed 5 gms with an eye inj, although he may return here (CS). The DL has recorded 17.5 of the tm’s 26 sks (67%). UT ranks #10 in our pass eff D all’g 173 ypg (50%) with an 11-15 ratio. With the emergence of Smithson, Matthews has not ret’d a P in the L/5 gms but still ranks #3 in the MWC avg 10.1 ypr. The PR D gives up 11.3 ypr and the KR D 21.3 ypr. K Vroman ranks #2 in the NCAA with 31 TB’s on KO’s. UT has our #40 ST’s unit.
The Cal off began the ssn on fire scoring over 50 pts in their 1st 2 gms (MD and EWU) but dropped the ball vs UO and USC putting up just a FG in each of those matchups as it once again looked to be another disappointing yr after building up high hopes early on. The tm rebounded to win 6 of their L/8 ending the yr avg 29 ppg and 399 ypg ranking #33 overall in our off ratings. QB Riley went as his tm went in ‘09 playing well in their wins and dismal in their defeats. RB’s Best and Vereen are the focus of the Cal off as they combined for 178 ttl ypg and 28 TD’s on the ssn. Best, however, missed the final 3 w/inj. His return here is ? as of this writing. Vereen stepped into the #1 role valiantly avg 148 ypg (5.0) over the final 3 keeping Cal afloat. The rec gm seems to have a new star each and every week with nobody separating from the pack. WR Jones is currently the only Cal plyr with more than 500 yds rec on the yr. The OL avg 6’4” 304 (1 Sr) paving the way for 4.8 ypc while they have all’d 27 sks (7.6%). The Cal def is ranked #42 all’g 24.5 ppg and 377 ypg but did go through a stretch in which they allowed more than 440 yds in 4 consec wks. The DL avg 6’3” 295 (1 Sr) running the only 3-4 scheme in the P10 and accounted for 17.5 of Cal’s 26 sks. The LB’s are led by Mike Mohamed who stepped into the forefront in ‘09 after being the #1 bkup at all 4 LB spots in ‘08 (leading tklr returning TY). The secondary has had its share of struggles but CB Thompson remained the only solid option again as he’s arguably the P10’s best CB. The unit all’d 259 ypg (63%) w/a 17-10 ratio on the yr ranking #81 in our pass def ratings. The KR unit struggled some w/o Best TY and while they fared well in PR’s (12.4), they struggled in P coverage all’g 12.2 ypr. Overall the unit finished with our #53 ranking TY.
Cal certainly looked disinterested in ssn finale vs UW, but Tedford has prepared them well as they’ve cashed 4 str bowls winning all by at least 6 pts each. UT has the nation’s longest streak winning 8 str bowls SU but a month ago prior to TCU, they thought they had a chance to win the conf before losing 2 of the L/3. This is also the same tm that was a BCS winner LY but is now led by a True Fr QB vs a quality BCS foe.

FORECAST: CALIFORNIA by 13 RATING: 3* CAL

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

MREAST NBA WEDNESDAY PLAY OF THE DAY

The Bucks have played a few low scoring games, which is holding the total down here. The bottomline is this is not a good defensive team, and the Wizards do one thing, they score. This game also fits a system that will be active here that has produced overs at the rate of 83% and has covered close to 70% of them by 7 points or more. I'll take the line value here as the Bucks appear defensive after a few low scoring games, but they are anything but. Over gets the call in this one.

#711 WASHINGTON WIZARDS @ #712 MILWAUKEE BUCKS 8PM EST

PLAY ON #711 WASHINGTON WIZARDS @ #712 MILWAUKEE BUCKS OVER 198.5 -110 FOR 3 UNITS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Brett Atkins Wednesday 20 Dime Bowl Money Maker - UTAH UTES

Just how good is the Mountain West Conference. We've already seen Wyoming go in and pull off the big upset of Fresno State and we've seen BYU wipe out favored Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl. Plus this is a Cal team that gave everything in the rivalry game with Stanford and then dumped at Washington the next week 42-10 as a 6 1/2-point favorite. Utah has won eight straight bowl games and will be making it nine tonight. Play the Utes.


10 Dime NBA Slam Dunk - SACRAMENTO KINGS

Classic look-ahead game for the Cavaliers as they are focused in on the Christmas Day game with the Lakers that is getting all the attention and national TV exposure. They already struggle with the Kings, failing to cash in four straight meetings with Sacramento. The Kings are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 and they have won two straight and four of six overall after getting a pair of road wins over Milwaukee and Chicago. Grab the points and play Sacramento tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Charley Sutton WEDNESDAY'S PLAYS 200 Unit Utah
50 Unit Kentucky

Utah vs. California
UTAH - Of Utah’s three SU losses this season, two came against teams that will be playing in BCS bowl games. And of their three losses, two were by a touchdown or less. Coming into tonight’s Poinsettia Bowl the Utes have covered in 3 of their last 4 games and have covered in 2 of their last 3 games on the road. Cal, on the other hand, has been losing money all year long, covering in just 3 of their last 9 games, including only 2 of their last 5 games on the road. It’ll happen again tonight as Utah gets over.


Long Beach State at Kentucky
KENTUCKY - I’ve said it before that I think Kentucky may very well be the best team in the country. The Wildcats have jumped to a 12-0 start and are beating teams by nearly 18 points per game (81.8-64). At home, that number is even better where the Wildcats are beating opponents by more than 20 points per game (85.1-65). Coming into tonight’s game the Wildcats have covered in 3 of their last 4 games and they’ve had huge SU wins over North Carolina and UConn over the last two weeks. Now they battle a Long Beach State team that’s covered in just 1 of its last 3 games and got destroyed 107-74 the last time it played a ranked team (Dec. 7 at Texas). The 49ers will get hammered again today at Kentucky.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Chuck O'Brien WEDNESDAY"S WINNER ... 15 DIME: UTAH (plus the points vs. Cal in the Poinsettia Bowl)

NOTE: With this number sitting at a solid 3, go ahead and buy the half-point and grab +3 1/2 with Utah. That way, if Cal wins by a field goal, we still collect.


Utah

BREAKDOWN: It’s easy to surmise that Utah, one year removed from pummeling Alabama in the Sugar Bowl to end a perfect season, would be less than enthused to be playing in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego before Christmas. In reality, Cal is the team that’s disappointed to be here. The Bears were expected to challenge for the Pac-10 championship this year, but back-to-back disastrous losses to Oregon and USC – by the combined score of 72-6! – ended those dreams. Then the Bears limped to the finish line, losing two of their final four games, including a 42-10 loss at Washington as a 6½-point road favorite to end the regular season. Cal completely quit in that game, and because of that, I doubt they’ll play with much energy tonight. … Despite losing a lot of key players from last year’s team, Utah went 9-3 this year, and all three losses were to very good teams (BYU, TCU and Oregon) and all three were on the road. … Utah owns the nation’s longest bowl winning streak (eight in a row), and it has cashed in six of its last seven bowl games. The Utes are also 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 out-of-conference games, 26-7-1 ATS in their last 34 as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last seven when catching three points or less. Meanwhile, Cal has failed to cover in four of its last five as a favorite and 13 of 16 when giving away three points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Jay McNeil Wednesday's plays 20 Dime -- Utah (plus points vs. California)

UTAH

The Utes have lost just three games this year -- to Oregon, TCU and BYU, all teams that could finish the season ranked in the top 10 -- are 26-7-1 in their last 34 games as an underdog and have won eight straight bowl games, the longest streak in the nation, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven. The Golden Bears have not been as potent on offense since running back Jahvid Best went down with a concussion, they lost 42-10 at Washington in their last game on Dec. 5 and Utah has a strong defense that has not allowed more than 17 points against any team other than Oregon, TCU and BYU.

5 Dime -- Harvard (plus points vs. GEORGETOWN)

HARVARD

Do-it-all star guard Jeremy Lin has helped Harvard jump out to a 7-2 start, with the Crimson already winning at Boston College and playing Connecticut tough in a 79-73 loss, and the Hoyas are 0-2 ATS at home this season and face a tough defensive squad today. Harvard is on ATS runs of 7-0 as an underdog, 6-0 as a road 'dog, 6-1 on the road and 9-2 overall, while Georgetown is on ATS slides of 1-8 at home, 1-7 as a home favorite, 4-11 as a favorite and 7-17-1 overall.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Joel Tyson WEDNESDAY'S SELECTIONS 500? - Cal Golden Bear minus the points

I know the Mountain West handled the Pac 10 last night, but if you ask me Oregon State let that 40 mph wind get to them, and that is what really beat the Beavers last night.

Anyway, this is not the same Utah team that went undefeated last season, including their 8th straight bowl win in a shocker over Alabama.

No, the Utes will have a true frosh under center, and while Utah plays solid, no-nonsense football, I prefer the big-play capabilty of the Golden Bears in this one, as California does have a 5 game bowl win streak of their own to hang their hat on.

Junior QB Kevin Riley is ready to take that next step and lead the Bears to their 6th straight bowl win.

Go with Cal.

100? - Orlando Magic minus the points

Orlando was resting at home last night, while Houston played in a home win over the LA Clippers.

Tonight marks the Rockets 4th game in 6 nights, and on the road I expect them to lose touch with Orlando.

Orlando is looking to snap a 3 game series losing streak both straight up, and against the spread, and tonight the schedule is greatly in their favor.

Magic pull away late for the cover.

100? - Ole Miss Rebels

Rebs catching a bunch here, and I like them plus the points to cover in Morgantown.

These schools did play last December in Oxford, West Va hanging on for a 2 point win as the 2 1/2 point road favorite.

Not sure Ole Miss is going to get their revenge, but they will be there plus the generous impost, as the Mounties record this year has been padded with some easy early season matchups. This figures to be West Virginia's toughest test to date.

Take the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

Pete Angelo Wednesday's Winner ... 200? UTAH UTES - Another slim number to take advantage of, as I am playing the underdog in this one. Last night I told you that you could put a piece on the moneyline, that it was entirely up to you. Tonight JUST TAKE THE POINTS, as the line you should be looking for is 3-1/2 points.

Down the final stretch of the 2009 campaign, following a six-game win streak, Utah lost to both TCU (55-28) and BYU (26-23 in OT) in Mountain West Conference play to finish 9-3 overall and 6-2 in conference play. Normally I'd be a little skeptical about the Utes tonight, as it's apparent superior competition has had its way with them.

But the remaining players from last year will lend experience. Remember, the Utes scored a 31-17 upset win over Alabama in last year's Sugar Bowl. That marked a national-best eighth straight postseason victory and pushed the team to 11-4 in bowl opportunities dating back to the 1939 Sun Bowl.

I will take my chances with another Mountain West team against the overrated Pac 10.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

A Redd

60 dime Cal

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

BRYAN LEONARD'S POINSETTIA BOWL MONEY MAKER (Wednesday)

Matchup: California vs Utah
Pick: UTAH +3.5 (-110)

The Mountain West continues to be shortchanged in the public eye as the Utes have been installed as the underdog here. Despite the fact that they have won seven straight bowl games including three straight in the underdog role. We all well remember their dominance of Alabama this time last year, the same Tide team playing in this year's national championship game. Utah is traditionally a fantastic underdog cashing 18 of their last 23 in that role. They are 6-1 ATS catching points all-time in bowl action. Utah owns the better defense in this one as they have held nine of twelve opponents to 17 points or less. They should have solid defensive success considering Cal's offensive coordinator was at Utah the past four seasons. The Utes are very familiar with Andy Ludwig's attack and they have plenty of time to prepare. Utah also has a solid edge in the kicking game as the Utes always seem to find one of the country's best place kickers, Joe Phillips is 17 of 19 on the season.

California will be without their best offensive player as Javid Best remains out with an injury. The Cal offense really struggled this season in his absence. The quarterback situation which is normally a Bear's strength has been pedestrian at best. California struggled down the stretch and we really can't see this team being overly excited for this match-up. After all this was expected to be the season that California won the PAC 10 Conference.

Utah and the entire Mountain West Conference have an extra chip on their shoulders this time of year. They are not considered a BCS Conference despite being every bit as good as their western rival PAC 10 opponents. Utah is well coached, has the motivational edge and owns the better defense, a great underdog combination.

PLAY UTAH

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

MARK FOX
Matchup: Utah at California
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Wed)
Play: Utah (+3 -110)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: December 23, 2009 @ 10:22:22 AM EST
Utah is 26-7-1 ATS their last 34 games as an underdog and they are 26-12-1 ATS their last 39 Non-Conference games. The Utes are 29-14-1 ATS their last 44 games off an ATS win and they are 6-1 ATS the last 7 Bowl Games. California is 3-13 ATS their last 16 games as favorites of 0.5 to 3.0 points and they are 3-7 ATS their last 10 December games. The Golden Bears are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 yards in their last game and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as favorites. 10* PLAY ON UTAH +

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

ROBERT FERRINGO

1-Unit Play. Take #723 Long Beach State (+24) over Kentucky (1 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)

1-Unit Play. Take #758 Northeastern (-6.5) over Western Michigan (3 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)

1-Unit Play. Take #776 BYU (-7) over Nebraska (10:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)

1-Unit Play. Take #763 SMU (-1.5) over Charleston (1 a.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)

1-Unit Play. Take #751 San Jose State (-1) over Santa Clara (10 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)

1-Unit Play. Take #741 Wyoming (+16) over Northern Iowa (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)

0.5-Unit Play. Take #727 Massachusetts (+13) over Boston College (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)

0.5-Unit Play. Take #721 Harvard (+13.5) over Georgetown (Noon, Wednesday, Dec. 23)

0.5-Unit Play. Take #733 Charlotte (+7.5) over Old Dominion (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)

0.5-Unit Play. Take #739 Mississippi (+11.5) over West Virginia (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23) These are 5-point teasers:

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #765 Canisius (-2) over New Orleans (5:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23) AND Take #758 Northeastern (-1.5) over Western Michigan (3 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #776 BYU (-2) over Nebraska (10:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23) AND Take #745 Fresno State (+11) over Oregon State (8:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)

0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #765 Canisius (-2) over New Orleans (5:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23) AND Take #776 BYU (-2) over Nebraska (10:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 23)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-23-09

TOM FREESE
Matchup: Utah at California
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Wed)
Play: Over (+52 -110)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: December 23, 2009 @ 10:22:22 AM EST

In this Mountain West (Utah Utes) vs. Pac 10 (Cal Bears) Poinsettia Bowl contest, take the total to go OVER the posted number!!!


The OVER is 9-2-1 in the Utes L12 non-conference games
The OVER is 2-0 in the Utes L2 bowl games
The OVER is 2-0 in the Utes L2 games played on a neutral field
The OVER is 18-5 in the Utes L23 games off a loss against a conference rival INCLUDING 3-1 THIS SEASON!!!
The OVER is 3-1 in the Utes L4 games vs. Pac 10 conference opponents INCLUDING 1-0 THIS SEASON!!!
The OVER is 10-3-1 in the Bears L14 non-conference games
The OVER is 6-2 in the Bears L8 games on grass
The OVER is 6-2 in the Bears L8 bowl games
The OVER is 2-0 in the Bears L2 games on a neutral field where the total is between 52.5 and 56
The OVER is 6-3 in the Bears L9 games vsa. MWC opponents
The OVER is 6-2 in the Bears overall games played on a neutral field